Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5136
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:10 am

32andBelow wrote:
keithvh2001 wrote:
FWIW, we did not hit 600,000 over the Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekend. We came somewhat close (590,456 on Sunday being the highest number).

I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or higher. For the 5 days since, June 17 to June 21, that week-over-week increase has only maxed out at 16.0% (the min was 8.5%). We may be seeing the rate of increase slowing.

Time will tell - back in the 28-May to 2-June time period, we had 5 of 6 days where the week-over-week increase was 6.2% or lower (1 of these days had negative numbers). But that was also comping against the Memorial Day period. That dynamic doesn't seem to be in play as much as regards these last 5 days.

Maybe the other poster was on to something when suggesting we are reaching the current capacity limits. Maybe slower till 1jul?


None of the US carriers have increased capacity since the first week of June, with the exception of WN.

You can't sustain those growth rates we saw earlier in the month without more capacity. Recall DL & B6 still have no middle seat restrictions, and as a result both are operating well under 20% of their normal seating capacity, UA is only operating at 15% capacity.

https://jettip.net/blog/22-june-weekly- ... fic-report

Image

Growth rates won't be steady, and we'll likely see growth rates rise and fall over the course of the year
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:27 am

We will see a large bump in TSA screening in July as everyone have been adding capacity. What kind of revenue increase we will see is a different story. I fully expect yield to get trashed with NK/F9 bringing back this much Florida capacity.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2144
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:52 am

keithvh2001 wrote:
I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or higher. For the 5 days since, June 17 to June 21, that week-over-week increase has only maxed out at 16.0% (the min was 8.5%). We may be seeing the rate of increase slowing.


This will not be a linear growth trend. Look at the long range trends, not day over day. Same thing goes for stocks, business, COVID infection rates etc.

What I've been thinking about over the last few days is what happens after the summer period ends and if business travel remains soft. This bump in (mostly) leisure travel probably won't last if kids go back to school.
 
User avatar
TheLunchbox
Posts: 75
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:06 pm

 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:58 pm

So then we casually break 600k on a Monday. Lol!
 
User avatar
admanager
Posts: 285
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:28 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:19 pm

Thanks for the ongoing update. Giving the thread a bump and to comment June 25 was 23% of 2019. Highest % yet during the crisis.
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:25 pm

admanager wrote:
Thanks for the ongoing update. Giving the thread a bump and to comment June 25 was 23% of 2019. Highest % yet during the crisis.


On June 25 2020 it was down 77 % from a year ago!
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:07 pm

2nd2none wrote:
admanager wrote:
Thanks for the ongoing update. Giving the thread a bump and to comment June 25 was 23% of 2019. Highest % yet during the crisis.


On June 25 2020 it was down 77 % from a year ago!

Yah we are following the recovery. Not compare it to the busiest travel year in history.
 
Cedar
Posts: 71
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:07 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:56 pm

Weekend numbers are as follows:

6/28/2020 633,810
6/27/2020 546,310
6/26/2020 632,984

Cedar
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1874
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:06 pm

Cedar wrote:
Weekend numbers are as follows:

6/28/2020 633,810
6/27/2020 546,310
6/26/2020 632,984

Cedar


Still close to a 10% growth maintained week over week. I would imagine that is hitting close to the available capacity cap for many major city pairings.

Very interested to see how numbers progress with added capacity in July, combined with upcoming holiday weekend, rising case numbers, and some new state travel restrictions.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5136
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:14 pm

Finally broke 25% on Monday, with 25.5% of LYs traffic
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5927
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:13 pm

I wonder if we take a hit this week with all the news across the sunbelt...

Or are people just going to press on?

It will be interesting to see
 
IAHWorldflyer
Posts: 854
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:00 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I wonder if we take a hit this week with all the news across the sunbelt...

Or are people just going to press on?

It will be interesting to see


Yes. I think it will depend on how much, and where, states shut things down again. I personally have a ticket to southern California for late July. I booked it to do something for a few days this summer. Right now, I'm in wait and see approach. As long as the beaches there are open, and restaurants can do around 50% capacity, I'm going. If those things close, I will need to change my ticket.
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:29 pm

TSA June 30 2020 500,054 (21,3 % of same day 2019 2,347,767)
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:39 pm

We should get pretty good bump for this weekend. Will be interesting to see where the numbers are after that.
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:11 pm

TSA July 1 2020: 626,516 (24,6 % of same day 2019 2,547,889)

and New Covid19 cases in the US July 1 2020 +51,097
 
KFTG
Posts: 812
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:11 pm

If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:23 pm

KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 386
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:44 pm

2nd2none wrote:
KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:05 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


If some of these states continually sees 20 to 40% positive rate, hospital system completely overwhelmed and existing measures not working, then they will shutdown. Frankly, people/businesses will stay at home before the governors announce these things.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 386
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:

They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


If some of these states continually sees 20 to 40% positive rate, hospital system completely overwhelmed and existing measures not working, then they will shutdown. Frankly, people/businesses will stay at home before the governors announce these things.


I think people will stay home on their own, no doubt, but I doubt the governors will be enacting another stay at home order. Frankly - nobody is going to listen. I read an interesting analysis yesterday, can’t remember where for the life of me, but it talked about how even this seemingly massive surge hails in comparison to the true number of new, undetected cases the US was seeing in March/April, at least thus far. AZ and FL may be hard hit given the elderly slew of the population, but outside of those, I don’t see people rushing back in their homes. And how many times have we heard “hospitals are going to be overwhelmed” in the past 4 months, only to never see it come to fruition outside of NYC.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:18 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


If some of these states continually sees 20 to 40% positive rate, hospital system completely overwhelmed and existing measures not working, then they will shutdown. Frankly, people/businesses will stay at home before the governors announce these things.


I think people will stay home on their own, no doubt, but I doubt the governors will be enacting another stay at home order. Frankly - nobody is going to listen. I read an interesting analysis yesterday, can’t remember where for the life of me, but it talked about how even this seemingly massive surge hails in comparison to the true number of new, undetected cases the US was seeing in March/April, at least thus far. AZ and FL may be hard hit given the elderly slew of the population, but outside of those, I don’t see people rushing back in their homes. And how many times have we heard “hospitals are going to be overwhelmed” in the past 4 months, only to never see it come to fruition outside of NYC.


We are at the start of surge in Arizona and Florida right now. It took time for tri-state area hospital to get overwhelmed and it stayed that way for weeks. We will see what happens in 2 or 3 weeks.

Back to the topic, we should see quite large increase in TSA numbers this week and next as all the additional capacities will bring additional travelers through TSA. Would be interesting to see what happens later this month since bookings have apparently leveled off now.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 328
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:26 pm

I have some thoughts, on these stats. Those that die seem to be about 4-6 weeks after infection. At this time with more resources it is likely that people are being found sooner after infection than at the beginning for the US, therefore the difference between rise in infections and rise in deaths will take longer. Secondly two of the states that currently are having high daily positive rates (Texas and Florida) also have had much lower death per infection that most other parts of the country and it has been very noticeable for months now. The possibilities than I can come up with are 1) they have a very good testing program and finding nearly everyone infected 2) There is a different demographic being infected than in other states 3) Deaths not being attributed to COVID that would have been in other states. You can choose which one you think is correct and maybe we will see data later which will answer that question.

So even with an out of control infection I do not expect the deaths to dramatically rise, yet.

The shutdown is done, when a few people die it was shocking, when a lot of people die it becomes normalized and we are just going to ignore it I guess. This is fairly normal I can quote many examples. I suspect that the demographic that can more afford to fly are also the ones who will be less likely to want to (Older, more educated, higher payed). So even if the economy opens up a lot of potential business will be sitting on the sideline. Air transport was never shutdown, the decline was through a drop in demand, (some of which was due to other things being shutdown to be fair)
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4133
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:52 pm

This thread has gone way off topic. Virus discussion, be it aviation based or non aviation based, belongs in those respective threads. This thread exists for TSA screening numbers. Please discuss that here, or the thread may be locked.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:48 pm

Latest numbers:

July 2 2020: 764,761 2,088,760 36.61%

July 3 2020: 718,988 2,184,253 32.92%

July 4 2020: 466,669 2,345,846 19.89%

July 5 2020: 732,123 2,795,369 26.19%
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 791
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 pm

2nd2none wrote:
Latest numbers:

July 2 2020: 764,761 2,088,760 36.61%

July 3 2020: 718,988 2,184,253 32.92%

July 4 2020: 466,669 2,345,846 19.89%

July 5 2020: 732,123 2,795,369 26.19%


These numbers make it glaringly clear that things are not recovering quickly. AS's release today shows that the yield for what the airlines are getting is trash.
This reinforces my opinion that the October layoffs are going to be brutal and deep. They have already started in some places, like the AA headquarters, they are just being paid until Sept 30.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:56 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
Latest numbers:

July 2 2020: 764,761 2,088,760 36.61%

July 3 2020: 718,988 2,184,253 32.92%

July 4 2020: 466,669 2,345,846 19.89%

July 5 2020: 732,123 2,795,369 26.19%


These numbers make it glaringly clear that things are not recovering quickly. AS's release today shows that the yield for what the airlines are getting is trash.
This reinforces my opinion that the October layoffs are going to be brutal and deep. They have already started in some places, like the AA headquarters, they are just being paid until Sept 30.

What did you think it was going to quadruple in one week?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:00 pm

The capacity almost doubled from June to July. So a lot of the fares have been rock bottom to stimulate demand. Look at NK right now out of EWR a week out, every route they are on are pricing below $20 O/W and UA/F9/B6 are all matching that fares. Starting this week, all of UA/AA capacity additions for July go into effect. So if we don't see a large jump in TSA numbers, planes are going to a lot more empty and at rock bottom fares in many cases.
Last edited by tphuang on Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
The capacity almost doubled from June to July. So a lot of the fares have been rock bottom to stimulate demand. Look at NK right now out of EWR, every route they are on are pricing below $20 O/W and UA/F9/B6 are all matching that fares. Starting this week, all of UA/AA capacity additions for July go into effect. So if we don't see a large jump in TSA numbers, planes are going to a lot more empty and at rock bottom fares in many cases.

More people traveling and coming home safe will signal other people to travel. But it’s going to be pretty dicey time the vaccine. In oxford we trust.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1002
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:18 pm

Miami Dade (MIA) county just shut down gyms, restaurants, Airbnb again. As normally happens, I expect Broward (FLL) and Palm Beach (PBI) counties to follow suit. This is going to put a major dent in any expected uptick in travel.

https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PWjQ870 ... 9Q49Q&s=i0
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 791
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:23 pm

32andBelow wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
Latest numbers:

July 2 2020: 764,761 2,088,760 36.61%

July 3 2020: 718,988 2,184,253 32.92%

July 4 2020: 466,669 2,345,846 19.89%

July 5 2020: 732,123 2,795,369 26.19%


These numbers make it glaringly clear that things are not recovering quickly. AS's release today shows that the yield for what the airlines are getting is trash.
This reinforces my opinion that the October layoffs are going to be brutal and deep. They have already started in some places, like the AA headquarters, they are just being paid until Sept 30.

What did you think it was going to quadruple in one week?

A LOT of people on A.net were way too overoptimistic about what was coming, and recovering from it. Many still are, though you can begin to see some reality setting in.

Many here predicted a million plus heads flying this weekend, and growing from there. The fact is we are currently at 1968-1972 traffic levels right now. Non-critical Biz travel is not coming back any time soon.
Adjustments to the new reality have to come soon, we are already seeing it happening in some places.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7947
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:56 pm

We were about ready to start opening up a bit of essential business travel this week then from upon high they shut it down at least September. I can get regional driving trips approved but flying is grounded still for the foreseeable future.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2144
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:46 pm

For what it's worth, I drove by LAX on Sunday 6/28 at about 8p. I know there's a lot of talk about flights being trimmed later at night, but it took me five minutes to drive the horseshoe in the arrivals level and three minutes on departures. Rental car busses were largely empty. More people than when I went on June 12, however, it's just haunting to see it so empty. Standard disclaimer applies: total anecdotal experience and not meant to be anything but a data point.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
We were about ready to start opening up a bit of essential business travel this week then from upon high they shut it down at least September. I can get regional driving trips approved but flying is grounded still for the foreseeable future.


No change at our company; air travel is only for "essential" purposes and must be approved by C level. One person on my team has an airplane trip that is remotely possible at the end of the month and the customer is fairly insistent even after I suggested Zoom. We have no restrictions on driving, so everyone is driving.

At this point, we're looking at EJM/FlexJet options. No idea if that'll materialize or if it does, who'll have access. Of course, some of us are in hotspots, so nobody is going to want us showing up anyway even if we come in via private jet, car, horse and buggy or parachute in. :lol:

Good luck to everyone in the industry. This isn't going away anytime soon.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:26 pm

chrisair wrote:
For what it's worth, I drove by LAX on Sunday 6/28 at about 8p. I know there's a lot of talk about flights being trimmed later at night, but it took me five minutes to drive the horseshoe in the arrivals level and three minutes on departures. Rental car busses were largely empty. More people than when I went on June 12, however, it's just haunting to see it so empty. Standard disclaimer applies: total anecdotal experience and not meant to be anything but a data point.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
We were about ready to start opening up a bit of essential business travel this week then from upon high they shut it down at least September. I can get regional driving trips approved but flying is grounded still for the foreseeable future.


No change at our company; air travel is only for "essential" purposes and must be approved by C level. One person on my team has an airplane trip that is remotely possible at the end of the month and the customer is fairly insistent even after I suggested Zoom. We have no restrictions on driving, so everyone is driving.

At this point, we're looking at EJM/FlexJet options. No idea if that'll materialize or if it does, who'll have access. Of course, some of us are in hotspots, so nobody is going to want us showing up anyway even if we come in via private jet, car, horse and buggy or parachute in. :lol:

Good luck to everyone in the industry. This isn't going away anytime soon.

Are there any confirmed outbreaks on planes? Wear a mask. You’ll be fine. You have less chance dying of car crash than corona?
 
chrisair
Posts: 2144
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:14 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Are there any confirmed outbreaks on planes? Wear a mask. You’ll be fine.


I'm not worried about the plane ride at all. If everyone wears a mask, it's probably better in a plane than going inside a Target. My concern comes from everything else you have to do when traveling. Parking and the parking shuttles or train, or taking an uber, rental car busses, TSA etc.

If I didn't have someone high risk in my family, I'd probably be a little more open to getting on a plane (or getting a haircut to be honest!), but I won't put their life at risk.
 
phxa340
Posts: 1105
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:07 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:07 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:20 pm

phxa340 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:

They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.

It’s still weird that deaths aren’t tracking. What’s different about this wave ?
 
joeblow10
Posts: 386
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:06 am

phxa340 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:

They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.


Eh - going to disagree. Nothing about TX, AZ, or FL is even close to “lockdown” at the moment. You could maybe argue Houston and Miami are in quasi-lockdown, but even there, most things are still open and far more open than in March/April. And while it certainly limits air travel to a nice South Beach vacation... doesn’t seem to be stifling air traffic in the US as a whole as TSA numbers keep climbing.

Things are definitely getting worse, I’m not going to disagree with you there. But the huge spike in deaths is still yet to be seen. Hospitalizations are up, not denying that at all, but the death curve for the US is remarkably downward sloping. In 7-10 days time, if it doesn’t begin to seriously spike, I think there is a legitimate case the virus is getting far less lethal. Yes, deaths are up in FL and AZ, but not to a degree that you would expect to see with such a dramatic climb in cases
 
phxa340
Posts: 1105
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:07 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:17 am

32andBelow wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.


It’s still weird that deaths aren’t tracking. What’s different about this wave ?


Are you saying since deaths are lower this round , that should be enough for passenger counts to increase because their confidence is up ? I am in my 30s and not really scared of Covid but also not going to willfully put myself in a position by choice to possibly contract it ...

The point is , rising covid numbers now are going to put a damper again in demand , I’m not sure how you could argue otherwise ?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:20 am

joeblow10 wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.


Eh - going to disagree. Nothing about TX, AZ, or FL is even close to “lockdown” at the moment. You could maybe argue Houston and Miami are in quasi-lockdown, but even there, most things are still open and far more open than in March/April. And while it certainly limits air travel to a nice South Beach vacation... doesn’t seem to be stifling air traffic in the US as a whole as TSA numbers keep climbing.

Things are definitely getting worse, I’m not going to disagree with you there. But the huge spike in deaths is still yet to be seen. Hospitalizations are up, not denying that at all, but the death curve for the US is remarkably downward sloping. In 7-10 days time, if it doesn’t begin to seriously spike, I think there is a legitimate case the virus is getting far less lethal. Yes, deaths are up in FL and AZ, but not to a degree that you would expect to see with such a dramatic climb in cases


Take a look at NY/NJ. The death count right now is still higher on some days than 1 or more of TX/AZ/FL and our COVID cases peaked 3 months ago. The trailing effect of COVID lasts for a while. Of course, we are getting better at treating COVID and the people getting sick are also younger and healthier. That will naturally lower the death rate. But follow what Scott Gottlieb has been saying. The death numbers will be going up. It's only been the past week and half to 2 weeks where the case count and positive rate has really shot up in these 3 states. If cases peak in 3 weeks as the models have been showing, we could get to 20k cases in Florida and Texas per day at the height of this outbreak with positive rate at like 20%.

the other point is that companies aren't going to take chances with a bunch of its employees getting sick and not being able to work. So corporate travel will be down even if mortality rate is at 0.5%. Leisure travel is a different matter. We will see people willing to take chances with COVID on their time even without vaccines. So I don't think leisure travel will drop off very much even if things get much worse in sunbelt states.
 
phxa340
Posts: 1105
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:07 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:20 am

joeblow10 wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.


Eh - going to disagree. Nothing about TX, AZ, or FL is even close to “lockdown” at the moment. You could maybe argue Houston and Miami are in quasi-lockdown, but even there, most things are still open and far more open than in March/April. And while it certainly limits air travel to a nice South Beach vacation... doesn’t seem to be stifling air traffic in the US as a whole as TSA numbers keep climbing.

Things are definitely getting worse, I’m not going to disagree with you there. But the huge spike in deaths is still yet to be seen. Hospitalizations are up, not denying that at all, but the death curve for the US is remarkably downward sloping. In 7-10 days time, if it doesn’t begin to seriously spike, I think there is a legitimate case the virus is getting far less lethal. Yes, deaths are up in FL and AZ, but not to a degree that you would expect to see with such a dramatic climb in cases


Arizona is in more of a lockdown than Miami depending on how you look at it ... California isn’t far behind.

I’m not sure why everyone is equating lower death counts to hypothetical Increased airline passenger demand ... rising covid numbers are going to stifle demand.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5136
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:47 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

These numbers make it glaringly clear that things are not recovering quickly. AS's release today shows that the yield for what the airlines are getting is trash.
This reinforces my opinion that the October layoffs are going to be brutal and deep. They have already started in some places, like the AA headquarters, they are just being paid until Sept 30.

What did you think it was going to quadruple in one week?

A LOT of people on A.net were way too overoptimistic about what was coming, and recovering from it. Many still are, though you can begin to see some reality setting in.

Many here predicted a million plus heads flying this weekend, and growing from there. The fact is we are currently at 1968-1972 traffic levels right now. Non-critical Biz travel is not coming back any time soon.
Adjustments to the new reality have to come soon, we are already seeing it happening in some places.


It's a two way street, a lot of people on A.net (& the aviation world in general) were way too pessimistic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/boeing- ... lines.html

The reality is that no one knows what will happen in the coming weeks & months, not even the "experts"
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
cschleic
Posts: 1799
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 10:47 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:49 am

32andBelow wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.

It’s still weird that deaths aren’t tracking. What’s different about this wave ?


Deaths lag positive tests and initial hospitalizations. Also, the healthcare system is learning how to successfully treat patients...it takes time and it's a new illness. Could be other factors, too. Infections are increasing in younger people who may not have as many contributing factors.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4813
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:01 am

cschleic wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
phxa340 wrote:

Except that we are going into lockdowns again more or less in TX, AZ, and FL. Things are getting worse, not better. That’s a statistical fact, although yes it will eventually get better. While you may have 50% of the US population willing to fly, airlines need business travel to come back and it’s just not going to for a long time.

It’s still weird that deaths aren’t tracking. What’s different about this wave ?


Deaths lag positive tests and initial hospitalizations. Also, the healthcare system is learning how to successfully treat patients...it takes time and it's a new illness. Could be other factors, too. Infections are increasing in younger people who may not have as many contributing factors.

It’s been long enough tho that they should be going up from Memorial Day.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19751
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:38 am

Please discuss TSA numbers in this thread. General virus discussion should be in non-aviation.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:19 am

lightsaber wrote:
Please discuss TSA numbers in this thread. General virus discussion should be in non-aviation.

Lightsaber


I disagree, under normal conditions such discussions would be irrelevant, but when it comes this "crisis" facts related to Covid19 are very relevant to the future of aviation, whether you like it not.
 
Silver1SWA
Posts: 4673
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:35 am

lightsaber wrote:
Please discuss TSA numbers in this thread. General virus discussion should be in non-aviation.

Lightsaber


Come on, just about every topic right now will be related to virus discussions. Have some leniency here. I’m tired of sifting through mega threads. Let the discussions happen organically as they pertain to narrower topics.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5927
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:15 am

Silver1SWA wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Please discuss TSA numbers in this thread. General virus discussion should be in non-aviation.

Lightsaber


Come on, just about every topic right now will be related to virus discussions. Have some leniency here. I’m tired of sifting through mega threads. Let the discussions happen organically as they pertain to narrower topics.


Agreed.

It is directly affecting numbers
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7947
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:40 am

It’s one thing to discuss the virus numbers and trends in relation to air travel demand.

I agree with the mods though it gets tiring to see the debate behind the virus numbers and what that may or may not mean.

Besides the fact that apparently the US and our failure of leadership has made it the only country where this is a political matter let’s keep this otherwise informative thread on TSA screening numbers free from most of that clutter and sidebars.
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:39 pm

July 6 2020 : 755,555 2,748,718 27.48 % and related cases + 50,000
  • 1
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos