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TW787
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:39 pm

I saw this on linkedin this morning: https://www.cmtengr.com/2020/07/06/smal ... -recovery/
Interesting read, seems like the TSA info is available at a more granular level than what has been discussed so far.
 
m66
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Please discuss TSA numbers in this thread. General virus discussion should be in non-aviation.

Lightsaber


Sorry, with all due to respect but what should we discuss here? COVID is the context of these numbers. Are we only allowed to post: the numbers go up, the numbers go down?
 
m66
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Please discuss TSA numbers in this thread. General virus discussion should be in non-aviation.

Lightsaber


Sorry, with all due to respect but what should we discuss here? COVID is the more than overwhelming context of these numbers. Are we only allowed to post: the numbers go up, the numbers go down?
 
MartijnNL
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:04 pm

chrisair wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
People making their once a year visits to friends and family are gonna crush “businessmen”.

They are? If you are unemployed (like 33+ million are currently), and don't have much money to pay for your family's food/utilities, you're not going to fly somewhere to see friends or family. You're going to drive.

On the other hand... who is going to drive from Chicago to Florida when you can book flight tickets for less than 50 USD return?
 
chrisair
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:05 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
On the other hand... who is going to drive from Chicago to Florida when you can book flight tickets for less than 50 USD return?


Wow, someone read a post I wrote! :D

To be fair, that was written a while ago at least in COVID-19 terms. There's a good amount of truth to what you posted and I'm sure there are going to be bargain hunters that'll fly...the real question is what will someone do in Florida if theme parks aren't open, beaches are closed (at least in So FL), dining is limited etc. So yippee, I can fly CHI-Florida for $50 r/t, but then what?
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:27 pm

chrisair wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
On the other hand... who is going to drive from Chicago to Florida when you can book flight tickets for less than 50 USD return?


Wow, someone read a post I wrote! :D

To be fair, that was written a while ago at least in COVID-19 terms. There's a good amount of truth to what you posted and I'm sure there are going to be bargain hunters that'll fly...the real question is what will someone do in Florida if theme parks aren't open, beaches are closed (at least in So FL), dining is limited etc. So yippee, I can fly CHI-Florida for $50 r/t, but then what?

The theme parks are open tho!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:29 pm

A lot of people flying out there aren't just taking pure leisure vacations. There is a lot of domestic VFR traffic (e.g., adult children going to visit parents, grandma visiting grandkids, etc) Florida has a huge transient population. Even if beaches are closed, family may still want to visit family, hang out at their house, even better if they have a pool.
Not all grandmas are frail 85 year olds. There are a lot of "grandmas" out there in their 50s/60s that have adult children in their 20/30s with grandkids under 5.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:00 pm

32andBelow wrote:
chrisair wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
On the other hand... who is going to drive from Chicago to Florida when you can book flight tickets for less than 50 USD return?


Wow, someone read a post I wrote! :D

To be fair, that was written a while ago at least in COVID-19 terms. There's a good amount of truth to what you posted and I'm sure there are going to be bargain hunters that'll fly...the real question is what will someone do in Florida if theme parks aren't open, beaches are closed (at least in So FL), dining is limited etc. So yippee, I can fly CHI-Florida for $50 r/t, but then what?

The theme parks are open tho!


I thought the beaches that were being closed, were only for July 4th weekend?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/n ... 392329002/

Only things that seem to be closed are bars & indoor dining, Desantis said today that they have ample hospital capacity statewide(less so in terms of nurses & doctors) so more restrictions are unlikely.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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LAXintl
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:04 pm

Variation in TSA screening by airport

Image

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcWaTxkUwAA ... name=large
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Vctony
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:09 am

I saw some numbers that WN was close to 70% of pre-COVID passenger volume at PHX.
 
alasizon
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:52 am

Vctony wrote:
I saw some numbers that WN was close to 70% of pre-COVID passenger volume at PHX.


They are running ~60% schedule at 66% capacity so even if everything was full it would put them at 40% of capacity.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:48 pm

July 7 2020: 641,761 2,506,859 25.6 % related new cases + 60,000
 
tootallsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:31 pm

So we continue to improve in terms of TSA screenings. For the past four weeks, the average change versus prior year has increased by 2.9%. If we extrapolate 10 weeks (roughly early Sept), the rate has only improved to -45%.

Again, lots of anecdotal evidence flying around. Big increases in a number of southern and western states. I'm in Palm Springs, CA and we have backtracked pretty significantly. Indoor dining and bars eliminated. Museums eliminated again. I'm going to drive to San Diego (100 miles) at the end of the month for a couple days away from the 120 weather. But I have second thoughts. How safe is it -- am I taking too much risk? What is there to do without being in a space that doesn't allow some social distancing. For the same reason, I would not even consider an airplane trip anywhere -- I see the airborne leg of the trip as the lower end of the risk-scale but the difference is airports, hotels, bars, restaurants, etc is where I get concerned.

I've lived through one epidemic (AIDS), I don't intend to be taken by this one.

There is a lot of discussion about death rates falling. There are two key drivers in my opinion -- availability of tests that can move people into treatment protocols quickly; much higher awareness of COVID and being able to diagnose it and begin treatment and the development of treatment protocols that are more effective at preventing death. But this is not a binary event: you get it and you're fine or you get it and you die. There is accumulating evidence that people that have had moderate to medium cases are carrying lasting damage in their body.

I'm no snow flake. I'm not afraid -- I am aware and rational.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:55 pm

tootallsd wrote:
So we continue to improve in terms of TSA screenings. For the past four weeks, the average change versus prior year has increased by 2.9%. If we extrapolate 10 weeks (roughly early Sept), the rate has only improved to -45%.

Again, lots of anecdotal evidence flying around. Big increases in a number of southern and western states. I'm in Palm Springs, CA and we have backtracked pretty significantly. Indoor dining and bars eliminated. Museums eliminated again. I'm going to drive to San Diego (100 miles) at the end of the month for a couple days away from the 120 weather. But I have second thoughts. How safe is it -- am I taking too much risk? What is there to do without being in a space that doesn't allow some social distancing. For the same reason, I would not even consider an airplane trip anywhere -- I see the airborne leg of the trip as the lower end of the risk-scale but the difference is airports, hotels, bars, restaurants, etc is where I get concerned.

I've lived through one epidemic (AIDS), I don't intend to be taken by this one.

There is a lot of discussion about death rates falling. There are two key drivers in my opinion -- availability of tests that can move people into treatment protocols quickly; much higher awareness of COVID and being able to diagnose it and begin treatment and the development of treatment protocols that are more effective at preventing death. But this is not a binary event: you get it and you're fine or you get it and you die. There is accumulating evidence that people that have had moderate to medium cases are carrying lasting damage in their body.

I'm no snow flake. I'm not afraid -- I am aware and rational.


This is the part I have been worrying about for sometime. As of yet we have no evidence that it is a problem as not enough time has lapsed. But from our knowledge of the bodies systems we can see the potential. At this point most people have made up their mind what they think and for those sitting on the fence they have mostly jumped one way. The isolational phase collapsed mostly by itself rather than directed but only small increases in travel are occuring. So it seems although people are willing to venture out they are still not flying.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:19 pm

The missing piece everyone seems not to realize is the job market. During prior recessions we haven't had anything like $600 a week plus whatever the state unemployment compensation kicks in. That defers a lot of economic pain and given that the job losses have impacted the lower end it's actually been an economic boom in many ways. Those people are spending that money, including travel, not putting it away for what might lie next.

Ultimately the question is will the free money continue (lot's of evidence it won't after 7/31) and do job losses move up the food chain. A tech professional making $100K a year won't be living high on the hog at $600 a week plus state unemployment, unless they've led a spartan life. In 2008/2009 many professionals were sent packing and air travel suffered. Come back in September and October and see how many people are flying to Florida.

Business travel is basically toast until 2021. And if professional employment takes a hit (like 2008/2009) business travel will really nose dive.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:00 pm

It's good to see the numbers of screened passengers continue to rise. As others have said, at this point people's opinions of their personal safety using air travel are pretty baked in. Some will, others won't. Lots of these people flying I feel are leisure travelers induced by lower airfares. As others have said, the higher yield business travel is just dead in the water for now. I would normally travel to 3 trade shows in July-early August. I'm going to zero this year. All were put on virtual only. I'm sensing that October, when the CARES act expires will not be good for airline employees.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:35 pm

July 8 2020 : 632,498 2,515,902 25,14% related new cases +60,000
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:29 pm

July 9 2020: 709,653 2,608,209 27,21% related new cases +60,000
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:32 pm

Definitely feels like we are hitting the peak. Wonder if this will be the new baseline for a while, meaning that the total number of people traveling right now are the only ones able or willing to? Wonder if it will plateau or begin declining?
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:01 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Definitely feels like we are hitting the peak. Wonder if this will be the new baseline for a while, meaning that the total number of people traveling right now are the only ones able or willing to? Wonder if it will plateau or begin declining?

Only down slightly after one of the biggest holidays
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:36 am

Well were solid 60-70k+ per day now, and rising, many states now over 1-2k per day regular, and a few special ones over 10k daily. Living in Florida i can tell you, i am sick of this "screw everyone else im not wearing no government mask" attitude. Those people are going to sink this ship completely. Leisure travel did increase clearly, but Leisure doesnt pay the bills. As stated prior, Business Travel is definetely done until 2021 at earliest.

Regarding the cares act $600, that is the smartest thing our govt has done, so they best continue it. Many if not most other Govts worldwide have done similar, with some just straight up initiating UBI UFN.

Without that the whole thing falls apart. The upper Millionaires and Billionaires are well padded, and honestly they appear to even be directing their "bought politicians" to try and starve the rest of society by cutting off the only thing keeping it together. Congress and the Senate will wait until the last second then approve extended UE and continued Cares act plus another 1 time payment. This is more mandatory than the Trillions weekly printed right from the FED to the banks. Thats supposed to be for Banks to help Businesses and people with loans, but they arent doing that, another nail in the coffin if Govt fails to act.

All of this will determine the future of Air Travel ofcourse. No money for the masses, it really falls apart.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:43 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
Definitely feels like we are hitting the peak. Wonder if this will be the new baseline for a while, meaning that the total number of people traveling right now are the only ones able or willing to? Wonder if it will plateau or begin declining?


We are running out of runway for any additional growth, given we are almost midway through July
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chrisair
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:26 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
Regarding the cares act $600, that is the smartest thing our govt has done, so they best continue it. Many if not most other Govts worldwide have done similar, with some just straight up initiating UBI UFN.


Several of my customers are having difficulty filling open positions. Some claim that people don’t want to come back to work because they make more on unemployment than at their office. One of my customers I’m friends with, so I needle him and say “well you ought to pay more then.”

Now, that’s a simplistic explanation and while we could derail this thread completely turning it in to an economic policy debate, the extra $600 and stimulus money that people received were good programs. I’ve seen anecdotal evidence that people are traveling because of that money. I can’t prove it, but at one of my hotel stays it sure looked like it. I’m sure that translates to air travel as well.

Time will tell when August comes and then if/when kids start heading back to school.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:32 pm

chrisair wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
Regarding the cares act $600, that is the smartest thing our govt has done, so they best continue it. Many if not most other Govts worldwide have done similar, with some just straight up initiating UBI UFN.


Several of my customers are having difficulty filling open positions. Some claim that people don’t want to come back to work because they make more on unemployment than at their office. One of my customers I’m friends with, so I needle him and say “well you ought to pay more then.”

Now, that’s a simplistic explanation and while we could derail this thread completely turning it in to an economic policy debate, the extra $600 and stimulus money that people received were good programs. I’ve seen anecdotal evidence that people are traveling because of that money. I can’t prove it, but at one of my hotel stays it sure looked like it. I’m sure that translates to air travel as well.

Time will tell when August comes and then if/when kids start heading back to school.


I've been flying 1-3 weeks since March and I'd bet money that people are taking that $600 plus state unemployment a week and traveling, particularly when I've seen BE fares of less than $100 roundtrip. Hotels are cheap. I can't prove it but I'd wager money the data will eventually show it. And of course it's also propping up other areas of the economy other than travel. We shall see what August and September brings in air travel if that $600 goes away. One thing I will also place money on is business travel remaining down by 90% for the remainder of this year.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:45 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
chrisair wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
Regarding the cares act $600, that is the smartest thing our govt has done, so they best continue it. Many if not most other Govts worldwide have done similar, with some just straight up initiating UBI UFN.


Several of my customers are having difficulty filling open positions. Some claim that people don’t want to come back to work because they make more on unemployment than at their office. One of my customers I’m friends with, so I needle him and say “well you ought to pay more then.”

Now, that’s a simplistic explanation and while we could derail this thread completely turning it in to an economic policy debate, the extra $600 and stimulus money that people received were good programs. I’ve seen anecdotal evidence that people are traveling because of that money. I can’t prove it, but at one of my hotel stays it sure looked like it. I’m sure that translates to air travel as well.

Time will tell when August comes and then if/when kids start heading back to school.


I've been flying 1-3 weeks since March and I'd bet money that people are taking that $600 plus state unemployment a week and traveling, particularly when I've seen BE fares of less than $100 roundtrip. Hotels are cheap. I can't prove it but I'd wager money the data will eventually show it. And of course it's also propping up other areas of the economy other than travel. We shall see what August and September brings in air travel if that $600 goes away. One thing I will also place money on is business travel remaining down by 90% for the remainder of this year.

My prediction since early on was that business won’t return majorly until a vaccine is approved. Seems like we should (hopefully) have a few by end of 2020 so indeed a write off for this year. If we can get a few million shots distributed both sides of New Years, 2021 should (hopefully) be a more steady recovery.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:43 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
chrisair wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
Regarding the cares act $600, that is the smartest thing our govt has done, so they best continue it. Many if not most other Govts worldwide have done similar, with some just straight up initiating UBI UFN.


Several of my customers are having difficulty filling open positions. Some claim that people don’t want to come back to work because they make more on unemployment than at their office. One of my customers I’m friends with, so I needle him and say “well you ought to pay more then.”

Now, that’s a simplistic explanation and while we could derail this thread completely turning it in to an economic policy debate, the extra $600 and stimulus money that people received were good programs. I’ve seen anecdotal evidence that people are traveling because of that money. I can’t prove it, but at one of my hotel stays it sure looked like it. I’m sure that translates to air travel as well.

Time will tell when August comes and then if/when kids start heading back to school.


I've been flying 1-3 weeks since March and I'd bet money that people are taking that $600 plus state unemployment a week and traveling, particularly when I've seen BE fares of less than $100 roundtrip. Hotels are cheap. I can't prove it but I'd wager money the data will eventually show it. And of course it's also propping up other areas of the economy other than travel. We shall see what August and September brings in air travel if that $600 goes away. One thing I will also place money on is business travel remaining down by 90% for the remainder of this year.


You already lost that money then, business travel is at 88% down right now.
https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources

The $600 is not impacting air travel significantly, and an extension won't be approved, unemployment was already under 10% in May in PHX & DC & at 10% in ATL, MSP, and DEN.

Late August & September are always slow months, but especially now as people likely aren't planning vacations with so much uncertainty on school reopenings & office reopenings.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:42 pm

Flew out of EWR on UA at Terminal C. EWR-LAX at 8:30am. The terminal was actually decently crowded and the employees were enforcing policies. It was refreshing to see people in EWR. The flight to LAX was also quite populated too.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:46 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
chrisair wrote:

Several of my customers are having difficulty filling open positions. Some claim that people don’t want to come back to work because they make more on unemployment than at their office. One of my customers I’m friends with, so I needle him and say “well you ought to pay more then.”

Now, that’s a simplistic explanation and while we could derail this thread completely turning it in to an economic policy debate, the extra $600 and stimulus money that people received were good programs. I’ve seen anecdotal evidence that people are traveling because of that money. I can’t prove it, but at one of my hotel stays it sure looked like it. I’m sure that translates to air travel as well.

Time will tell when August comes and then if/when kids start heading back to school.


I've been flying 1-3 weeks since March and I'd bet money that people are taking that $600 plus state unemployment a week and traveling, particularly when I've seen BE fares of less than $100 roundtrip. Hotels are cheap. I can't prove it but I'd wager money the data will eventually show it. And of course it's also propping up other areas of the economy other than travel. We shall see what August and September brings in air travel if that $600 goes away. One thing I will also place money on is business travel remaining down by 90% for the remainder of this year.


You already lost that money then, business travel is at 88% down right now.
https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources

The $600 is not impacting air travel significantly, and an extension won't be approved, unemployment was already under 10% in May in PHX & DC & at 10% in ATL, MSP, and DEN.

Late August & September are always slow months, but especially now as people likely aren't planning vacations with so much uncertainty on school reopenings & office reopenings.

I wonder if there will be an increase right before school goes back when people realize the vacation is finally over.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:09 pm

July 10 2020:
711,124
2,716,812
26,17%

July 11 2020:
656,284
2,312,178
28.38%

July 12 2020:
754,545
2,669,717
28,26%
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:57 pm

So we matched the holiday weekend.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:33 pm

Does the FAA Break this down by region by any chance? I would love to see how New York as a whole is doing against California as a whole in terms of enolanements.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:47 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Does the FAA Break this down by region by any chance? I would love to see how New York as a whole is doing against California as a whole in terms of enolanements.

This is from the TSA
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:52 pm

32andBelow wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Does the FAA Break this down by region by any chance? I would love to see how New York as a whole is doing against California as a whole in terms of enolanements.

This is from the TSA


Just glad we are getting some real data points from somewhere.

It is hard to believe ANYTHING in media anymore.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
keithvh2001
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:53 pm

32andBelow wrote:
So we matched the holiday weekend.


About the same percent changes (in terms of a comparison vs. 7 days before) as the weekend after Memorial Day.

Obviously, the absolute numbers are higher now vs. late May.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:55 pm

keithvh2001 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
So we matched the holiday weekend.


About the same percent changes (in terms of a comparison vs. 7 days before) as the weekend after Memorial Day.

Obviously, the absolute numbers are higher now vs. late May.

The growth may be slowing but we certainly haven’t seen a pull back. 800k for next weekend
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:14 pm

We'll probably continue to climb up at a similar pace for the next 4 weeks or so. The biggest wildcard is going to be what does the trend look like in September and beyond.
With schools returning either in-person or virtual, and people getting the summer vacation fix in, what does the personal and leisure demand profiles look like going into the fall and with business travel continuing to remain very suppressed.

It could trend-up then flat-line or regress slightly in September.

However, being kid-less my wife and I are considering September travel. A lot of kid-less people and empty nesters travel in September that aren't tied to school schedules. We typically travel in September to avoid the summer crowds and heat. Still thinking we may do our annual late summer/early fall trip out west hiking and national parks. It will be a near game-time decision though. More of a debate of do we even want to bother and incur the expenses of air travel, rental car, or rather just do something closer in driving distance.

Frankly, if we could do something like a negative covid test within 48 hours prior to international travel, that might be a savior for the industry and enable to safe reopening of some international travel without the need for 14-day quarenteens.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:18 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
We'll probably continue to climb up at a similar pace for the next 4 weeks or so. The biggest wildcard is going to be what does the trend look like in September and beyond.
With schools returning either in-person or virtual, and people getting the summer vacation fix in, what does the personal and leisure demand profiles look like going into the fall and with business travel continuing to remain very suppressed.

It could trend-up then flat-line or regress slightly in September.

However, being kid-less my wife and I are considering September travel. A lot of kid-less people and empty nesters travel in September that aren't tied to school schedules. We typically travel in September to avoid the summer crowds and heat. Still thinking we may do our annual late summer/early fall trip out west hiking and national parks. It will be a near game-time decision though. More of a debate of do we even want to bother and incur the expenses of air travel, rental car, or rather just do something closer in driving distance.

Frankly, if we could do something like a negative covid test within 48 hours prior to international travel, that might be a savior for the industry and enable to safe reopening of some international travel without the need for 14-day quarenteens.

Business is going to start climbing in the fall. Some companies aren’t going to sit around forever. They’ll start making deals. While the flat footed ones will be trying to get a zoom call going and will miss out.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:37 pm

I know of not one company that has resumed travel or indicated they will resume travel. Few to no companies are going to allow travel that can be completed via video. Today USAToday announced DL paxs testing positive for COVID 19. Now I'm the first to point out being tested positive doesn't mean one is going to end up seriously ill but no company is going to go up against the 24/7 porn panic being pushed by the media, the "woke", the Democratic Party, and others that have an interest in keeping society and the economy partially if not fully locked down. It's just that simple. And this I guarantee you will be the narrative until November. I think we are seeing the high point of TSA screenings and therefore air travel.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:26 pm

Adding to my previous reply... I do expect a drop in travel or a pause in growth (depending how we've progressed) in the passenger numbers once school returns. However, if school starts get delayed, or even just in-person delayed you may see an extension of the summer travel numbers into September.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:32 am

The Company I work for thinks that we can now Zoom everything because we have suits that look at the pennies and not the dollars. I assume over time projects will get to be such a "cluster" the suits will restart some travel. I've been in the business world for near 40 years, about 25 years in the consulting world. One thing I've seen throughout these many years is the sheer stupidity of upper management when it comes to starving the business in hope of saving some coins.

That being said I see lots of business travel being shifted towards video. Face it much of the business travel is because people want to get out of the office, away from their spouse and family and live it up flying in paid J and staying at 4/5 star hotels on the company dime. Many CEOs will start to look at the travel budget. I see it not only in my own company but my clients as well. All of them do not seem to want to pay for travel even though it makes the deployment suck beyond belief.

COVID has been used as a political football at least in the US. The media has been nothing more than whores doing anything for click bait. And the public has become so dumb down it's shameful.

Another data point. I'm at MIA this morning which a few weeks ago was very busy. Last week when I flew I noticed a difference and today the airport looked more like early May. Even the main screening line which a couple weeks ago snaked around ropes today had a few people in it. (Thank god the TSA lane is still open for now). My 738 got switched from an Oasis to a non Oasis a/c presumably because those extra Y seats are not needed. Things are changing.

Finally given fare structures it's not just "white collar" people that fly (leisure). The lower end of the economy certainly flys and the ULCCs have put them in the sky. Doesn't seem like that $600 is going to be around much longer. Let's see what happens to crowds next month.
 
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qf789
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:48 am

Please keep your posts on topic and aviation related. For all COVID-19 discussion not related to the topic please use the COVID-19 Aviation/Non-Aviation threads
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:06 pm

July 13 2020:

697,985

2,615,115

26,69 %

Related cases +60,000
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 83
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:28 pm

July 14 2020:

540,268

2,447,177

22,1 %

New related cases +65,000 in the US.
 
The777Man
Posts: 6120
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:32 pm

That's a big drop in just one day from 13 to 14 July.....
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
B757Forever
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:46 pm

The777Man wrote:
That's a big drop in just one day from 13 to 14 July.....


Tuesday is almost always lower than Mondays. However, compared to last week's Monday / Tuesday (which was right after a holiday weekend) it does show lower numbers overall. Ed Bastian indicated he was seeing a flattening of bookings but had not seen an overall reduction yet.
The Rolls Royce Dart. Noise = Shaft Horsepower.
 
RicFlyer
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:15 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:54 pm

It was lower then July 7th after the July 4th weekend. But higher then Wednesday, June 30 by 233,717 screenings.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:57 pm

There will likely be a gradual decline between now and the end of August, but the “fall off a cliff” numbers likely won’t show up until after Labor Day. After that? Anyone’s guess as to what happens
 
N766UA
Posts: 8335
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:01 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
There will likely be a gradual decline between now and the end of August, but the “fall off a cliff” numbers likely won’t show up until after Labor Day. After that? Anyone’s guess as to what happens


I don’t think it’s “anyone’s guess.” We all know what’s coming.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:03 pm

N766UA wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
There will likely be a gradual decline between now and the end of August, but the “fall off a cliff” numbers likely won’t show up until after Labor Day. After that? Anyone’s guess as to what happens


I don’t think it’s “anyone’s guess.” We all know what’s coming.

I’m not so sure. Ppl aren’t working in the office so why are they going to stop traveling?
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:49 pm

N766UA wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
There will likely be a gradual decline between now and the end of August, but the “fall off a cliff” numbers likely won’t show up until after Labor Day. After that? Anyone’s guess as to what happens


I don’t think it’s “anyone’s guess.” We all know what’s coming.


What's coming is what we saw in April/May and it's appears to have started. Not only will COVID 19 still be raging (at least in the press), and yes many have got numb to it, the real economic impact is going to be felt. Both parties have said they do not see a reason to continue the Federal $600 portion but instead will have state unemployment increase their eligibility period. Although many states are stone broke so I'm not sure how that would work. Maybe there will be a last minute reprieve but with a little more than 2 weeks to go we shall see. Also, the "you can skip your payment" schemes are ending and suddenly people are going to find out this wasn't much of a deal.

Back to the topic. Let's see what these TSA numbers look like in August. To that end it would be nice to see week over week per day comparisons.
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