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32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:46 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
N766UA wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
There will likely be a gradual decline between now and the end of August, but the “fall off a cliff” numbers likely won’t show up until after Labor Day. After that? Anyone’s guess as to what happens


I don’t think it’s “anyone’s guess.” We all know what’s coming.


What's coming is what we saw in April/May and it's appears to have started. Not only will COVID 19 still be raging (at least in the press), and yes many have got numb to it, the real economic impact is going to be felt. Both parties have said they do not see a reason to continue the Federal $600 portion but instead will have state unemployment increase their eligibility period. Although many states are stone broke so I'm not sure how that would work. Maybe there will be a last minute reprieve but with a little more than 2 weeks to go we shall see. Also, the "you can skip your payment" schemes are ending and suddenly people are going to find out this wasn't much of a deal.

Back to the topic. Let's see what these TSA numbers look like in August. To that end it would be nice to see week over week per day comparisons.

We will see what this weekend brings. Comparing it to a holiday weekend is a bit harsh.
 
Cedar
Posts: 76
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:07 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:49 am

Miamiairport wrote:
N766UA wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
There will likely be a gradual decline between now and the end of August, but the “fall off a cliff” numbers likely won’t show up until after Labor Day. After that? Anyone’s guess as to what happens


I don’t think it’s “anyone’s guess.” We all know what’s coming.


What's coming is what we saw in April/May and it's appears to have started. Not only will COVID 19 still be raging (at least in the press), and yes many have got numb to it, the real economic impact is going to be felt. Both parties have said they do not see a reason to continue the Federal $600 portion but instead will have state unemployment increase their eligibility period. Although many states are stone broke so I'm not sure how that would work. Maybe there will be a last minute reprieve but with a little more than 2 weeks to go we shall see. Also, the "you can skip your payment" schemes are ending and suddenly people are going to find out this wasn't much of a deal.

Back to the topic. Let's see what these TSA numbers look like in August. To that end it would be nice to see week over week per day comparisons.


If you think August will be quieter, that's a mistake - People get more & more comfortable to travel each & every day, and are itching to do so. Many have not had the chance to do so in months now. So what you will see is continued increases. And this will continue late into September, as people will want to travel sooner rather than later. Most people are not concerned with the health side, because they know what airlines are doing to ensure it.
The $600 is not doing much at all in terms of travel. One only needs to look toward the airports to see what is happening. It's a mad house in some & they can't keep up with the level of domestic flights being brought back. Airport workers are being brought back into work.
In fact, jobs are being posted.

I have another 3 international carriers that have returned to my nearby airport in the past 2 weeks.

A drop for a couple of days and talk of COVID case increases in the press does not mean anything anymore - as you say, they have become numb. People know what to do & are protecting themselves in various ways, and have stopped listening to the constantly changing narative. They got the point & can read between the lines.
You will see more increases in pax numbers.

Cedarg
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:08 pm

July 15 2020:

589,285

2,522,563

23.36 %

Related new cases + 70,000 in the US

Cedar got the dense numbers
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:48 pm

People say $600 a week or $2400 a month isn't much in the way of travel. Well it is, particularly considering some of the airfares out there. If people have someone to stay with that's the majority cost of a trip. A little OT but from a USAToday article I read the 2 sides aren't expected to agree to continue the $600 a week past 7/31 but will likely have another check in the mail. What is being argued now is the income threshold, somewhere between $40K and the first round of $75K. If the $600 goes away and we continue with real high unemployment (today another 1.3 million were announced filing initial claims) the trend in air travel for the remainder of this year is not good.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 854
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:05 pm

Cedar wrote:
...press does not mean anything anymore - as you say, they have become numb. People know what to do & are protecting themselves in various ways, and have stopped listening to the constantly changing narative. They got the point & can read between the lines. You will see more increases in pax numbers.

Cedarg


I think you are onto something! People are wising up up regarding the media’s manipulation of information for “ad clicks” scheme.

Air Travel should not dip substantially at this stage which is a good thing.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:23 pm

July 16 2020:

706,164

2,716,828

25,99 %

Related new cases + 75,000 in the US.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 342
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:30 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Cedar wrote:
...press does not mean anything anymore - as you say, they have become numb. People know what to do & are protecting themselves in various ways, and have stopped listening to the constantly changing narative. They got the point & can read between the lines. You will see more increases in pax numbers.

Cedarg


I think you are onto something! People are wising up up regarding the media’s manipulation of information for “ad clicks” scheme.

Air Travel should not dip substantially at this stage which is a good thing.


I think continued air travel might be part of the problem because it helps move the virus around keeping the pandemic going. But there will be no air transport shutdown within the US so my opinion does not make any difference.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1497
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:36 pm

2nd2none wrote:
July 16 2020:

706,164

2,716,828

25,99 %

Related new cases + 75,000 in the US.


The spike in Northwest Arkansas has nothing to do with air travel. It started at meat processing plants and went from there. We also have a large Marshallese community with their known health issues, it has been been absolute murder on them. 20% of the hospitalizations from less than 4 percent of the total area population. The hispanics make up around 14 percent and they are 50% of the beds. Communities that have large families and live together in greater numbers and have been gathering on weekends like it was nothing.
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 984
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:52 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Just glad we are getting some real data points from somewhere.

It is hard to believe ANYTHING in media anymore.

?

What media are you using? Maybe it's time to switch to different ones? The regional newspapers and national broadcast company I am using in the Netherlands are perfectly trustworthy.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:05 pm

2nd2none wrote:
July 16 2020:

706,164

2,716,828

25,99 %

Related new cases + 75,000 in the US.


As one of those 700k+ yesterday, I can tell you both of my flights: RNO-LAS, LAS-SAN, were packed, albeit with most middle seats still blocked. When accounting for no middle seat available (unless traveling together), LFs at >80%.

Most shocking was the Vegas airport, which was absolutely bustling. Now this was the Southwest terminal, and I can't speak to the others, but you would have been hard-pressed to tell the difference between yesterday and a day in February. Only noticable difference was every other seat in holding areas marked-off for distancing, and even that appeared somewhat ignored.

Another encouraging sign was that most of the retail and F&B was open, but sadly with only one serving alcohol. They were having a good day. No bar seating allowed, but you could get cocktails at your table and they had a order stand set-up at the entrance where you could get drinks, "to go." It never ran out of customers the entire time I enjoyed my lunch.

Most passengers did appear to be leisure, so we'll see what happens as unemployment runs out and the states keep enforcing the economically catastrophic lockdown. But whatever concerns I may have had about air traffic significantly slowing down as we progressed through July were reversed yesterday, and emphatically so.

I'll be flying to SJC next week. Let's keep our fingers crossed that more people regain confidence in flying and that this good news continues...
 
Cedar
Posts: 76
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:07 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:50 pm

Oh how I wish I can bring some of you into the word of airports/airlines I know - you will see that there is some of the false information being spewed out. There is a line at the door waiting for flights. Ground Handlers are begging for people as they pick up more work. New contracts are being signed left & right at a pace that cannot be kept up with.
Nobody cares about what the media or anyone is saying - they are making their own decisions and assumptions.

What you will begin to see down the line is bigger profits at airlines as they have so drastically reduced costs, that once these pax numbers are back to regular numbers - the bank accounts will be full.
If anyone thinks that they will not be looking to hire people back or bring new people in, you don't understand the financal side of things.
The additional loans being taken are not by any means signs of toruble, they spell tax advantage & increasing profits for shareholders.
These execs are smart, they know exactly what they're doing.

All I can say is wait & see for those pax numbers to continue rising - I suggest popping a bag of popcorn & start placing some bets with the skeptics,

Cedar
 
PDXLVR
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 3:12 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:24 pm

"Truther" claims notwithstanding, the numbers tell a pretty plain story- pax numbers have stopped growing and may be trending down. One major airline at "my" airport is already talking about cutting their August schedule. I work in the front lines and I can tell you almost all our passengers are leisure, when September rolls around we are going to be dead as a doornail.

Also those talking about unemployment insurance and travel are not looking at the big picture- it's not the unemployed who may or may not be traveling, it's the hit the economy will take when all those unemployed lose that extra $600, and the further unemployed that will be created from that.
I left my heart in PDX
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:00 am

PDXLVR wrote:
"Truther" claims notwithstanding, the numbers tell a pretty plain story- pax numbers have stopped growing and may be trending down. One major airline at "my" airport is already talking about cutting their August schedule. I work in the front lines and I can tell you almost all our passengers are leisure, when September rolls around we are going to be dead as a doornail.

Also those talking about unemployment insurance and travel are not looking at the big picture- it's not the unemployed who may or may not be traveling, it's the hit the economy will take when all those unemployed lose that extra $600, and the further unemployed that will be created from that.

This pet Thursday Matched a Thursday before a holiday. Not much of a decline imo.
 
santi319
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:32 am

So out of touch with reality if some people are thinking that the majority are travelling because of $600 from the Government. This isn’t the 90s anymore. Most families are spread in different areas of the world. Long distance relationships, out of state colleges, and most important Millenials that do NOT care about a mansion in the suburb, but they care about visiting the most places before their time is up.

I guess time will show who is really travelling.....
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2979
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:52 am

PDXLVR wrote:
September rolls around we are going to be dead as a doornail.

No idea what will ultimately happen, but I don't know that leisure travel this year is really going to follow the typical cycle of leisure travel in normal times. Many have put off summer travel, are working remotely, and schooling pushed back or restructured to boot.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:56 am

flyguy89 wrote:
PDXLVR wrote:
September rolls around we are going to be dead as a doornail.

No idea what will ultimately happen, but I don't know that leisure travel this year is really going to follow the typical cycle of leisure travel in normal times. Many have put off summer travel, are working remotely, and schooling pushed back or restructured to boot.

Business gonna pick up to. They can’t put off system installs and service and maintenance and whatever else
Forever.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3369
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:22 am

[twoid][/twoid]
32andBelow wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
PDXLVR wrote:
September rolls around we are going to be dead as a doornail.

No idea what will ultimately happen, but I don't know that leisure travel this year is really going to follow the typical cycle of leisure travel in normal times. Many have put off summer travel, are working remotely, and schooling pushed back or restructured to boot.

Business gonna pick up to. They can’t put off system installs and service and maintenance and whatever else
Forever.


The longer people put their heads in the sand and talk this virus down, the longer the pain will be to the economy and getting things back to a semblance of actual normality.

Currently I seem to hear many opinions that have created an artificial construct version, something that will just create an unstable business and travel environment and lead to deeper issues than getting the response right first. You don’t manage an epidemic by wishing it away and the quicker some realise that, the better off the world will be.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:08 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
32andBelow wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
No idea what will ultimately happen, but I don't know that leisure travel this year is really going to follow the typical cycle of leisure travel in normal times. Many have put off summer travel, are working remotely, and schooling pushed back or restructured to boot.

Business gonna pick up to. They can’t put off system installs and service and maintenance and whatever else
Forever.


The longer people put their heads in the sand and talk this virus down, the longer the pain will be to the economy and getting things back to a semblance of actual normality.

Currently I seem to hear many opinions that have created an artificial construct version, something that will just create an unstable business and travel environment and lead to deeper issues than getting the response right first. You don’t manage an epidemic by wishing it away and the quicker some realise that, the better off the world will be.
just need to make it 4 more months to moderna and Pfizer and AstraZeneca deliver. Plus I’m not talking it down. But things and systems need to continue to operate and a bunch of service and installations are being delayed.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2154
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:29 am

santi319 wrote:
So out of touch with reality if some people are thinking that the majority are travelling because of $600 from the Government.


It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s additional people traveling locally and using the $600 to get out of the house. Not everyone flies places. Contrary to what people on here think, there is a large amount of the population who’ve never flown.

32andBelow wrote:
just need to make it 4 more months to moderna and Pfizer and AstraZeneca deliver.


I sure hope those vaccines work at >75% efficacy and most importantly the majority of the population gets the vaccine and there are no production issues.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4754
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:20 am

For people trying to paint a picture that air travel is back.....look at 2019 vs 2020 numbers it's not. You might want it to be, but it's not.

What you are seeing are many less flights so the ones running are sometimes packed. Some regional variation. Places like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada we do see alot of flyers but Nationwide people are not back. There are some regional differences , people in Florida totally seem willing to jump on a plane and people in NY and BOS are not. Nationwide numbers are way down comparing anything to same week 2019. Just look at TSA screening numbers not how full your flight was.

August is hard to predict but cancellations are rolling in faster than bookings again. Bad sign. With business travel still cut September and October will be terrible but all airlines expect them to be at this point. My company last week banned all business travel until 7/1/2021 now. This thing is gonna be really hard on the airlines and hotels , really unprecedented situation.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8048
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:31 pm

Companies are starting to further rollback office reopening due in part to both continues lack of control of the virus and due to uncertainty around the start of the school year.

To give parents less worry they are keeping people remote so they can plan accordingly for homeschooling and remote learning.

My company (top 10 business travel spender) didn’t change our guidance from September yet but they said it will likely move back but we won’t make a decision until early August.
 
Galore
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:43 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:21 pm

I’m working for a huge company in DFW with many AA lifetime platinum colleagues. Our business travel was restricted to absolutely necessary trips (BU approval required) back in January 2020 and shut down completely (except for executives with access to the company jets) in February. Every customer meeting has moved to (video) calls with desktop sharing with no guidance if/when this will change. The travel budget savings must be massive.
 
lat41
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:23 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:36 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Just glad we are getting some real data points from somewhere.

It is hard to believe ANYTHING in media anymore.

?

What media are you using? Maybe it's time to switch to different ones? The regional newspapers and national broadcast company I am using in the Netherlands are perfectly trustworthy.

For some in this country, if it's news you would rather not hear or don't like or want to blow off, you blame the "media". I will enjoy re-reading some of these post in weeks to come. The normal domestic September tranquil period when Summer leisure travel subsides and schools and colleges are back will be further blunted if more people don't take the virus and protections seriously or refuse to modify their lifestyle. How much travel will affected will depended on the virus spread and how stubborn or uninformed some of our people want to still be.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1020
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:51 pm

lat41 wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Just glad we are getting some real data points from somewhere.

It is hard to believe ANYTHING in media anymore.

?

What media are you using? Maybe it's time to switch to different ones? The regional newspapers and national broadcast company I am using in the Netherlands are perfectly trustworthy.

For some in this country, if it's news you would rather not hear or don't like or want to blow off, you blame the "media". I will enjoy re-reading some of these post in weeks to come. The normal domestic September tranquil period when Summer leisure travel subsides and schools and colleges are back will be further blunted if more people don't take the virus and protections seriously or refuse to modify their lifestyle. How much travel will affected will depended on the virus spread and how stubborn or uninformed some of our people want to still be.

The saddest part of this thread, at least IMO, is that we have raw data directly from the source (TSA). It’s not being filtered through any medium and yet and still people are still way off base referring to travel “being back” when the clear evidence shows that it’s not.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5271
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:26 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
For people trying to paint a picture that air travel is back.....look at 2019 vs 2020 numbers it's not. You might want it to be, but it's not.

What you are seeing are many less flights so the ones running are sometimes packed. Some regional variation. Places like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada we do see alot of flyers but Nationwide people are not back. There are some regional differences , people in Florida totally seem willing to jump on a plane and people in NY and BOS are not. Nationwide numbers are way down comparing anything to same week 2019. Just look at TSA screening numbers not how full your flight was.

August is hard to predict but cancellations are rolling in faster than bookings again. Bad sign. With business travel still cut September and October will be terrible but all airlines expect them to be at this point. My company last week banned all business travel until 7/1/2021 now. This thing is gonna be really hard on the airlines and hotels , really unprecedented situation.


Either your company didn't travel much to begin with, or that date is meaningless. Making decisions for that far out in a situation like this doesn't seem wise at all.

No one would argue that this isn't a terrible & unprecedented situation, but the fact is that travel was at 3-4% just a couple months ago. The fact that we are at 25-30% of travel(domestic % is larger) is at least something to acknowledge, and is ahead of many expectations. It's fine to acknowledge some recovery has happened, even if there is still a ways to go.

I've been following bookings, & cancellations are not rolling in faster than bookings. It's not even really close.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:52 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
lat41 wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
?

What media are you using? Maybe it's time to switch to different ones? The regional newspapers and national broadcast company I am using in the Netherlands are perfectly trustworthy.

For some in this country, if it's news you would rather not hear or don't like or want to blow off, you blame the "media". I will enjoy re-reading some of these post in weeks to come. The normal domestic September tranquil period when Summer leisure travel subsides and schools and colleges are back will be further blunted if more people don't take the virus and protections seriously or refuse to modify their lifestyle. How much travel will affected will depended on the virus spread and how stubborn or uninformed some of our people want to still be.

The saddest part of this thread, at least IMO, is that we have raw data directly from the source (TSA). It’s not being filtered through any medium and yet and still people are still way off base referring to travel “being back” when the clear evidence shows that it’s not.

No one is saying it’s back. We’re just tracking it. And so far there’s been no decline.
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 83
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:00 pm

The biggest challenge to the aviation industry, is when all their business customers realise how much more profit they make, when most of their employees are not allowed to travel. Tons of money is saved from Air tickets, Hotel bills, Car rent, and general waste of time related to travel.
Last edited by 2nd2none on Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:03 pm

Reality check business travel is toast until at least 2021. Furthermore, if the $600 freebie to the unemployed goes away leisure travel will take a dive, not to mention what COVID 19 Phase 2 will do to travdl. I got a voter card in the mail yesterday. On the ballot? Funding for the Miami Airport Authority to test all arriving paxs for COVID 19. Don't think that cluster "f" is going to inhibit people traveling to Miami Beach, not to mention the cost it will throw on AA (and other airlines).

Someone upstream said cancellations are now outpacing new bookings and IF that is true I'm not certainly surprised. I think the airlines will need to go back and replan/reset/refigure a lot of items from routes to the number of workers they will need to downsize by. And does anyone realistically think COVID 19 won't be a political football until November?
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4298
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:07 pm

2nd2none wrote:
The biggest challenge to the aviation industry, is when all their business customers realise how much more profit they make, when their employees are not allowed to travel. Tons of money is saved from Air tickets, Hotel bills, Car rent, and general waste of time.


Sure but it won't be that way forever. Even the bosses like to travel and waste time and money. Also, once one business starts returning to business travel they all will have to. If I am spending $5 million on a product (or whatever) and Company A refuses to send someone to talk over the details in person, while Company B will have someone flown to my office in the next day or two I am probably going with Company B if all things are equal. This is looking in the future of course when vaccines and treatments are available.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:08 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Reality check business travel is toast until at least 2021. Furthermore, if the $600 freebie to the unemployed goes away leisure travel will take a dive, not to mention what COVID 19 Phase 2 will do to travdl. I got a voter card in the mail yesterday. On the ballot? Funding for the Miami Airport Authority to test all arriving paxs for COVID 19. Don't think that cluster "f" is going to inhibit people traveling to Miami Beach, not to mention the cost it will throw on AA (and other airlines).

Someone upstream said cancellations are now outpacing new bookings and IF that is true I'm not certainly surprised. I think the airlines will need to go back and replan/reset/refigure a lot of items from routes to the number of workers they will need to downsize by. And does anyone realistically think COVID 19 won't be a political football until November?

I don’t think that’s true. I haven’t seen that in any official data. Notice how a lot of players are announcing next expansions for the fall. AS, B6, F9 etc.
 
HardeesBiscuit
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:46 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:52 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Someone upstream said cancellations are now outpacing new bookings and IF that is true I'm not certainly surprised. I think the airlines will need to go back and replan/reset/refigure a lot of items from routes to the number of workers they will need to downsize by. And does anyone realistically think COVID 19 won't be a political football until November?


"Someone said"....I mean c'mon, this is Airliners.net People say all kinds of uninformed things on here and think their opinion or interpretation is fact when it's just that: opinion, interpretation, or in the case of Covid, reflection of their political worldview.

With schools and work being virtual for the forseeable future, any calendar patterns for air travel from past years are really useless, in my opinion.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:55 pm

HardeesBiscuit wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Someone upstream said cancellations are now outpacing new bookings and IF that is true I'm not certainly surprised. I think the airlines will need to go back and replan/reset/refigure a lot of items from routes to the number of workers they will need to downsize by. And does anyone realistically think COVID 19 won't be a political football until November?


"Someone said"....I mean c'mon, this is Airliners.net People say all kinds of uninformed things on here and think their opinion or interpretation is fact when it's just that: opinion, interpretation, or in the case of Covid, reflection of their political worldview.

With schools and work being virtual for the forseeable future, any calendar patterns for air travel from past years are really useless, in my opinion.
we might even start seeing the work from home crowd working from the road in the future. That would be something wouldn’t it?
 
Galore
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:43 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:39 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
Even the bosses like to travel and waste time and money. Also, once one business starts returning to business travel they all will have to. If I am spending $5 million on a product (or whatever) and Company A refuses to send someone to talk over the details in person, while Company B will have someone flown to my office in the next day or two I am probably going with Company B if all things are equal.


As someone who has been in both roles, boss and employee, who had to travel internationally a *lot* (mostly China/Taiwan/Korea/Japan), I am not so sure. The face-to-face experience is overrated, especially if there's a language and cultural barrier. Then there is the unavoidable significant delay because of long haul travel. I also don't know many bosses who still *like* to travel, even if they get to fly in a premium cabin. It loses its luster real fast. The jet-lag, the interchangeable hotels, the boring meeting rooms (where it really doesn't make that much of a difference if you are there in person or on a laptop screen), the endless taxi rides in congested traffic. It's just such a colossal waste of time.

I'd go with Company A - all negotiations are already done when the person from Company B is still waiting in the business class lounge at the departure airport.
 
Jetport
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:44 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
The biggest challenge to the aviation industry, is when all their business customers realise how much more profit they make, when their employees are not allowed to travel. Tons of money is saved from Air tickets, Hotel bills, Car rent, and general waste of time.


Sure but it won't be that way forever. Even the bosses like to travel and waste time and money. Also, once one business starts returning to business travel they all will have to. If I am spending $5 million on a product (or whatever) and Company A refuses to send someone to talk over the details in person, while Company B will have someone flown to my office in the next day or two I am probably going with Company B if all things are equal. This is looking in the future of course when vaccines and treatments are available.


I totally agree. All other things being equal, you are going to buy from the supplier whom you have met face to face, and you like. Any company going totally virtual for sales will have to give a significantly (not a few pennies) lower price to customers to compete. I have a customer who has had the entirely inside/virtual sales model for many years. They have done well, but they are still a niche player who must sell significantly below their competitors to succeed. I often wonder if their savings on travel really makes up for their reduced pricing power.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:52 pm

Galore wrote:
I’m working for a huge company in DFW with many AA lifetime platinum colleagues. Our business travel was restricted to absolutely necessary trips (BU approval required) back in January 2020 and shut down completely (except for executives with access to the company jets) in February. Every customer meeting has moved to (video) calls with desktop sharing with no guidance if/when this will change. The travel budget savings must be massive.


You can see evidence of this everywhere. Some Corp travel is resuming, but most of the growth is going into GA and Bizjets. A look on Flightaware at any "Executive" or alternate airport outside of the northeast is showing this very clearly.

On some days recently, my "Base" airport is almost as busy as they are on "Event" days, with GA and Bizjets all over the ramp. These are all people that are choosing not to take airlines through crowded airport, and are justifying the extra costs. I have also seen this at other airports I have flown through recently, like Gary, LOU, etc.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:55 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Galore wrote:
I’m working for a huge company in DFW with many AA lifetime platinum colleagues. Our business travel was restricted to absolutely necessary trips (BU approval required) back in January 2020 and shut down completely (except for executives with access to the company jets) in February. Every customer meeting has moved to (video) calls with desktop sharing with no guidance if/when this will change. The travel budget savings must be massive.


You can see evidence of this everywhere. Some Corp travel is resuming, but most of the growth is going into GA and Bizjets. A look on Flightaware at any "Executive" or alternate airport outside of the northeast is showing this very clearly.

On some days recently, my "Base" airport is almost as busy as they are on "Event" days, with GA and Bizjets all over the ramp. These are all people that are choosing not to take airlines through crowded airport, and are justifying the extra costs. I have also seen this at other airports I have flown through recently, like Gary, LOU, etc.

I’ve been noticing a ton of biz jets in my sectors. But also a lot more passenger planes
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:14 pm

Jetport wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
The biggest challenge to the aviation industry, is when all their business customers realise how much more profit they make, when their employees are not allowed to travel. Tons of money is saved from Air tickets, Hotel bills, Car rent, and general waste of time.


Sure but it won't be that way forever. Even the bosses like to travel and waste time and money. Also, once one business starts returning to business travel they all will have to. If I am spending $5 million on a product (or whatever) and Company A refuses to send someone to talk over the details in person, while Company B will have someone flown to my office in the next day or two I am probably going with Company B if all things are equal. This is looking in the future of course when vaccines and treatments are available.


I totally agree. All other things being equal, you are going to buy from the supplier whom you have met face to face, and you like. Any company going totally virtual for sales will have to give a significantly (not a few pennies) lower price to customers to compete. I have a customer who has had the entirely inside/virtual sales model for many years. They have done well, but they are still a niche player who must sell significantly below their competitors to succeed. I often wonder if their savings on travel really makes up for their reduced pricing power.

The art of sales is figuring out what costs little to give that the customer really values. For example, Pratt will give away engine cleaning machines and training if it locks the airline into a better service contract.

Online only doesn't help. Seventy five percent of my sales wins with customers and vendors happen when drinking. Now, I don't drink much, but when they relax and vent, you find out their real needs. For one customer, I redirected the next day's testing to get their boss off their back. I was never more flippant in a customer presentation at 5pm the next day as I showed two features we could do our competor couldn't and the customer and my management loved it! I then dragged in their opperators and sold them.. (No drinking) where suddenly the bosses 4 levels up who I couldn't get a meeting with couldn't over-ride the hands on people. Sale complete.

I work to see my customer more than weekly and my bosses notice the satisfaction difference. This us me persuading them to fly out (at this time, no point me flying there). I do this by inviting them to witness testing. More money? No. Future sales based on trust, features management undersells, and letting them know we go that little bit further.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:24 pm

Also I don’t see how video call helps at all. If we are just going to talk I can just talk in the phone. You don’t need to see my mug and my kitchen. So I don’t see how video call replaces travel when phone call didn’t.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:38 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
For people trying to paint a picture that air travel is back.....look at 2019 vs 2020 numbers it's not. You might want it to be, but it's not.

What you are seeing are many less flights so the ones running are sometimes packed. Some regional variation. Places like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada we do see alot of flyers but Nationwide people are not back. There are some regional differences , people in Florida totally seem willing to jump on a plane and people in NY and BOS are not. Nationwide numbers are way down comparing anything to same week 2019. Just look at TSA screening numbers not how full your flight was.

August is hard to predict but cancellations are rolling in faster than bookings again. Bad sign. With business travel still cut September and October will be terrible but all airlines expect them to be at this point. My company last week banned all business travel until 7/1/2021 now. This thing is gonna be really hard on the airlines and hotels , really unprecedented situation.


No one is even remotely claiming that air travel is, "back." No one.

What most are saying, including myself, is that there are hopeful signs. Calling those who see these hopeful signs "truthers' or other such nonsense is both sneeringly arrogant and expectedly ignorant. No one is "wishing it away." No one is saying don't take precautions. From the data posted, it appears as though we are running about 25%+ of last-year's all-time record pass-through counts. This is a stunning number given the single-digit rates of just three months ago. Airports like SMF are showing month-to-month growth in June of over 100%.

The big question now is will this growth be sustained? I agree with those who say it's unlikely. 100% month-to-month growth is a tall mountain to climb and if that's the standard you want to use, then the industry will not "back" anytime in the near future. Of course, if 100% monthly growth is your standard, the industry has never been "there" at all.

But are the data points trending in right direction? Typically these things have peaks and valleys, they reach plateaus and then continue on course, either up or down. So far, the trend is clear and unmistakable. The trends are up. In my own view, I'd expect a plateau for the next couple of months as I expect leisure travel to level-off, but I'd love to be wrong. I also expect that companies that are banning business travel will be at a competitive disadvantage compare to those with more liberal travel policies.

This isn't the first time that "Zoom" type meetings are getting all the love, but just as before, the pendulum eventually swings back. Is that likely to happen in 2020? I think we can all agree the answer is "no." But for a company to unequivocally ban all business travel for a year out seems short-sighted and an overreaction. So many things can happen between now and next July. Overall though, I think we are unlikely to see business travel return to 2019 levels without strong, overall economic growth. Those decisions will get made from both sides of the labor/management equation as more workers discover the joys of working from home and business sees that money is saved. What will those numbers be? No one knows, but a strong economy means that those levels are reached more quickly. For my own company, the key is access to capital. If banks continue to lend, we'll pull out of this just fine. If the markets freeze (as they did in March/April), we are doomed.

I can, of course, only make statements based on the TSA numbers I see posted and linked here, and my own experience. My own experience last week was a shock as both flights and the Vegas airport were absolutely teaming with activity.

I saw that as a good thing, but if I am wrong about continued increases, I will take no joy "in reading these posts in a month." What that will mean is real economic devastation to millions of my fellow Americans. These are real people suffering crippling losses to themselves and their families. They are not merely political points to score. The pain and economic agony is real. So if the wished-for (by some) economic collapse occurs, take that into account when reading some of these posts with "joy" in a month.

So yes, I very much want air travel to be "back," but no one here is claiming that it is, or that it will be in the near future. We are claiming that things are looking better than they were last month, and the month before and so on. We are claiming that because it's true.

I just don't get this seemingly cheering for economic catastrophe.
 
Galore
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:43 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:48 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Also I don’t see how video call helps at all. If we are just going to talk I can just talk in the phone. You don’t need to see my mug and my kitchen. So I don’t see how video call replaces travel when phone call didn’t.


It’s less the video aspect but more the conference call aspect with desktop sharing, where it is now real easy and efficient to share and discuss project details on a call. This was never as convenient and cleverly implemented in the past.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:08 pm

Galore wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Also I don’t see how video call helps at all. If we are just going to talk I can just talk in the phone. You don’t need to see my mug and my kitchen. So I don’t see how video call replaces travel when phone call didn’t.


It’s less the video aspect but more the conference call aspect with desktop sharing, where it is now real easy and efficient to share and discuss project details on a call. This was never as convenient and cleverly implemented in the past.


I agree that this innovation makes a huge difference and significantly reduces the need for in-person discussion. I know that is absolutely true for my own company. I also agree that many companies would not have risked what was working for them (in-person meetings) without being forced into it by travel restrictions, and now that they know this works, there will be less demand.

So if we only base future travel on the existing business pool, we will never see business pax counts at the 2019 levels again. Some "business" absolutely requires face-to-face. I can't imagine anyone who engages in high-level decision making disagreeing with this. But that "business" is now demonstrably lower. I can't imagine anyone who engages in any kind of decision making disagreeing with that either.

That's why we need to see robust economic growth in all sectors to ever see a return to 2019 business travel levels. That, I think it's safe to say, will take years, not months, but with a strong economy, it occurs much more quickly.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4962
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:19 pm

Galore wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Also I don’t see how video call helps at all. If we are just going to talk I can just talk in the phone. You don’t need to see my mug and my kitchen. So I don’t see how video call replaces travel when phone call didn’t.


It’s less the video aspect but more the conference call aspect with desktop sharing, where it is now real easy and efficient to share and discuss project details on a call. This was never as convenient and cleverly implemented in the past.

It can work. You also have no idea if the guy is actually listening to your sales pitch or just browsing airliners or reddit on their other screen. WebEx has had this capability for over a decade.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:59 pm

I've posted this elsewhere, but here are the Flightradar24 seven-day flight totals for various California and Nevada airports.

Today's count is in the first column and the count for 6/14 in parenthesis. All of the counts show solid growth with some being spectacular...

LAX - 2712 (1831)
LAS - 2096 (1224)
SFO - 1715 (1073)
SAN - 1011 (583)
SMF - 670 (502)
OAK - 644 (412)
SJC - 675 (507)
ONT - 311 (271)
SNA - 499 (339)
BUR - 295 (194)
RNO - 238 (158)
FAT - 145 (106)
LGB - 128 (77)
SBA - 67 (48)
MRY - 46 (42)
BFL - 42 (28)
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:29 pm

July 17 2020:

720,378

2,776,960

25.94 %

July 18 2020:

646,654

2,396,462

26.98 %

July 19 2020:

747,422

2,727,355

27,40 %
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:45 pm

It seems like we are stuck at the 25 - 27 % level.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3369
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:49 pm

Things may appear to growing, but the point that some overlook is that the only true way to create a sustainable return to normality is through stopping the spread of the virus.

Doing that will create confidence to return to a more solid platform to boost business demand, get people back to work and create a travel environment that connects the world again. Pretending that just opening things up when the issue is still running rampant through society is not solving anything.
 
User avatar
2nd2none
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:21 pm

There is growth

June 14 2020:

544,046

2,642,083

20.59%

July 19 2020:

747,422

2,727,355

27,40 %


In percentage points is June 14 20 to July 19 2020: 6,81%
And in numbers June 14 20 to July 19 20: 3,23 %
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:25 pm

We are getting OT here by video on demand services have improved over the past 10-15 years and companies were slowly adapting to them anyway. Just like the shift from retail stores to online COVID has sped up the process. There will always be a certain need for retail stores and a certain need for business travel but not like what we've seen in prior years. Running an online site is far cheaper than operating retail sales even though it takes away the ability to do things like cross sell effectively. Being in person will always be better than video services but a WebEx call or Zoom call is in the dollars. A few J seats, hotel and other charges to Europe can be $50K+.

COVID 19 like HIV/AIDS is here to stay. Science and medicine may or may not develop a vaccine that is widely effective and easily (and cheaply) administered. Like HIV/AIDSs it might become a "managable" disease but will still kill some. The world cannot be shut down forever and can't run around with masks on (which present all kinds of health problems the MSM will never discuss) or social distance in modern urban or suburban areas. People need to take responsibility for their own health and begin to boost their immune system through better lifestyles. Obesity kills over 2 million yearly worldwide, far more than COVID 19. Diseases from smoking around double that. Both are contributing to COVID 19 deaths.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3369
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:10 pm

Why do some keep saying this is a bad flu. I think it’s fairly clear that the more this goes on, the more is learnt that makes it far more dangerous than that, with longer lasting damage to organs even with those that have survived.

Once again, trying to suggest things will get back to normal because a few wish it to happen just won’t fly. The pain for all involved will only grow if some continue to talk it down in terms of deaths and economic damage.

As for growth, there are many out there that don’t care until it affects them, so they will continue traveling and doing their own thing until then. Whether or not that catches up to them, or they infect someone else along the way, is a secondary consideration at this point in their minds.

Some airlines put on more flights in the hope that the COVID situation was improving and things would return to a semblance of normality. There would be many in airline decision making roles that would be very nervous now that the bold steps they made may not pay off. A False dawn it may well be.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4231
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:20 pm

Pareto Principle may apply to business travel. Your figures may vary. Even dropping the 25% least productive travel would be somewhat of a disaster for airlines.
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