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MIflyer12
Posts: 10191
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:56 pm

2nd2none wrote:
There is growth

June 14 2020:

544,046

2,642,083

20.59%

July 19 2020:

747,422

2,727,355


27,40 %


In percentage points is June 14 20 to July 19 2020: 6,81%
And in numbers June 14 20 to July 19 20: 3,23 %


Nice cherry-picking by using 7/19 at 27.4%, the best day of the last seven, but, in fact, that's not even the best day month to date. The avg for seven days ending 7/19 (25.4%) was actually lower than the avg of seven days ending 7/12 (26.9%) Growth has stalled - just like DL's Bastian said. Stalls can be fatal for airlines.

No U.S. carrier can end cash burn on 27% of last year's passenger count. They couldn't possibly furlough enough people even to be able to cover fixed expenses + variable op costs. DL said it wanted to end cash burn by year end and then acknowledged it has gone pretty much as far as it can go with expense reduction (maybe another $5 million/day). The other $22 million a day needs to come from increased demand. See the multiple remarks in the earnings transcript.
 
hohd
Posts: 1059
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:05 pm

I would travel if I can, but my company has cut back almost all air business travel (they still permit short road travel), and I have no particular place to visit since most of the places are closed to US citizens or even if it is open, some kind of quarantine is required. It will be like this till late fall. I don't back air travel to recover to 2019 levels for at least 2 to 3 years. Even 2021 will be down.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6719
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:09 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
There is growth

June 14 2020:

544,046

2,642,083

20.59%

July 19 2020:

747,422

2,727,355


27,40 %


In percentage points is June 14 20 to July 19 2020: 6,81%
And in numbers June 14 20 to July 19 20: 3,23 %


Nice cherry-picking by using 7/19 at 27.4%, the best day of the last seven, but, in fact, that's not even the best day month to date. The avg for seven days ending 7/19 (25.4%) was actually lower than the avg of seven days ending 7/12 (26.9%) Growth has stalled - just like DL's Bastian said. Stalls can be fatal for airlines.

No U.S. carrier can end cash burn on 27% of last year's passenger count. They couldn't possibly furlough enough people even to be able to cover fixed expenses + variable op costs. DL said it wanted to end cash burn by year end and then acknowledged it has gone pretty much as far as it can go with expense reduction (maybe another $5 million/day). The other $22 million a day needs to come from increased demand. See the multiple remarks in the earnings transcript.


I think cash neutral before March/April is a giant pipe dream at this point for most airlines. Unless business travel comes back a little bit (maybe 50%?), I don't see how their revenue can recover enough to be cash neutral.

LCCs and ULCCs that depend on leisure travel may be able to hit cash neutral sooner if fear over Florida and other traditional leisure spots goes away.

Of course, there is also the fear of what would happen once the $600/week unemployment check goes away.

1/4 of New York hasn't paid rent since COVID started.

All sort of landmines ahead of us.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9001
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm

Everyone in my circle - personal and business wants to travel.
However between a combination of travel bans/restrictions, border closures, and just safety throughout the whole the travel experience (not just the flying aspect) they are not going to travel.
The numbers reflect this sentiment.

If we get the virus under control, get more things back to normal, and people feel safe they will travel.

We are not there in the US and won't be for a long time.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2233
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:52 pm

Since I'm sure my post will get edited or deleted, it's good to see growth from June to July. Even cherry picking the dates looks somewhat encouraging. Look, you can't really pull out trends from day to day numbers until you get farther in the future. Comparing seven day averages is better, IMO.

That being said, this thread has turned amusing. Perhaps I'm the only one, but it's kind of fun trying to figure out who believes the various pieces of disinformation or conspiracy theories out there or who parrots them for whatever reason. You "just a flu" people are the reason I'll be flying private if I go anywhere.

Miamiairport wrote:
The world cannot be shut down forever and can't run around with masks on (which present all kinds of health problems the MSM will never discuss) [...]


What are these "all kinds of health problems" you speak of from wearing masks?!? I'm amazed that we've never heard about them from China/Taiwan/HK/Japan or surgeons who've worn masks for decades!
 
TObound
Posts: 898
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:24 pm

chrisair wrote:
You "just a flu" people are the reason I'll be flying private if I go anywhere.


Exactly this. The last person I want to beside on an airplane is the people who minimize this as "just the flu". And the entire reason the US is behind the rest of the developed world is specifically because of this set of people in the US. Domestic travel is resuming in Canada and Europe. Yet, the "just a flu" crowd just can't see the tie between containment and economic resumption.
 
IAHWorldflyer
Posts: 908
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:33 pm

I don't see where anyone has mentioned that there are now a fair share of states that are asking travelers from other states to quarantine. NYC and Chicago among them. This is also going to have an effect on future bookings, because I don't know today what the situation will look like 4 weeks from now. Yes, it's now fairly easy to change dates on tickets, but for some people, it may not be worth the risk to book a ticket that they might not be able to use.
Maybe someone with better access to information than me can give us data, but how far in advance did today's flyers book their travel? Was it 4 weeks ago? 2 weeks ago? Things were looking up in June, so I think people were more willing to plan a trip for July. I'm not so sure that sentiment is the same for August travel now.
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:04 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
There is growth


Nice cherry-picking by using 7/19 at 27.4%, the best day of the last seven, but, in fact, that's not even the best day month to date. The avg for seven days ending 7/19 (25.4%) was actually lower than the avg of seven days ending 7/12 (26.9%) Growth has stalled - just like DL's Bastian said. Stalls can be fatal for airlines.

No U.S. carrier can end cash burn on 27% of last year's passenger count. They couldn't possibly furlough enough people even to be able to cover fixed expenses + variable op costs. DL said it wanted to end cash burn by year end and then acknowledged it has gone pretty much as far as it can go with expense reduction (maybe another $5 million/day). The other $22 million a day needs to come from increased demand. See the multiple remarks in the earnings transcript.



Not really I picked a Sunday against a Sunday, because someone upthread was talking about great growth!!

My own opinion is there is an extreme low growth!

I prefer not to make "fake news" and lie to the public how wonderful the US is handling the situation! To the "envy" of the rest of the world!
 
MUWarriors
Posts: 200
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 12:11 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:12 pm

So, I figured I'd throw together a little chart, with 7 day trendlines to show how things have progressed over the last month. So these go back to June 19. In terms of raw numbers we have trended up a little bit over the last month, although the last week has looked very level. Last year it was level from start to finish of this period.

In terms of percentages to last year, the 7 day trend is essentially a straight line at present. It's too early to make any huge statements, but at present it looks like a plateau rather than growth.
Image
Image
Image
 
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75driver
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:23 pm

I guess the easy part will be determining who’s right/wrong about short term predictions because it’s measurable and coming soon enough. I’m of the opinion we’re searching for a new norm, whatever that may be. I seriously doubt we’ll be anywhere near 50% of previous pax count anytime soon. People are scared of the unknown, not necessarily dying from COVId. Their kids, school, jobs, etc are more important. It’s a long long road ahead. The industry has been hit with an Orwellian proportion atomic bomb. I feel for my brothers/sisters and all concerned. TSA numbers will likely bounce around with minimal growth. Cheers and good luck to all...
 
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qf789
Moderator
Posts: 12020
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:55 pm

This is the last warning. Keep your posts on topic, aviation related and keep politics and all off topic comments out of the discussion. If you are providing factual information sources must be included
 
Silver1SWA
Posts: 4770
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:11 pm

75driver wrote:
I guess the easy part will be determining who’s right/wrong about short term predictions because it’s measurable and coming soon enough. I’m of the opinion we’re searching for a new norm, whatever that may be. I seriously doubt we’ll be anywhere near 50% of previous pax count anytime soon. People are scared of the unknown, not necessarily dying from COVId. Their kids, school, jobs, etc are more important. It’s a long long road ahead. The industry has been hit with an Orwellian proportion atomic bomb. I feel for my brothers/sisters and all concerned. TSA numbers will likely bounce around with minimal growth. Cheers and good luck to all...


I think the fears of travel during a pandemic and economic unknowns are a bit overstated while the impact of travel quarantines, restrictions and lockdowns are understated. Demand is still being suppressed. Cancelations aren’t only because of fears, people are canceling because states imposed travel restrictions. There’s really not much going on anywhere to make travel appealing right now.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 156
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:55 pm

Silver1SWA wrote:

I think the fears of travel during a pandemic and economic unknowns are a bit overstated while the impact of travel quarantines, restrictions and lockdowns are understated. Demand is still being suppressed. Cancelations aren’t only because of fears, people are canceling because states imposed travel restrictions. There’s really not much going on anywhere to make travel appealing right now.


I totally agree. Of course, a lot of people are afraid of the pandemic and won't travel during it. But that definitely isn't everyone. Plenty of people would be traveling if only they could do the things that make traveling worth it. Not a lot of fun to go to Vegas when none of the things that make Vegas fun are remotely close to normal.
No sporting events to go to anywhere, concerts to see, festivals to attend, most weddings have been postponed, etc. Add in the quarantines and it just isn't worth it to most.
The next few months will be interesting to see what happens throughout the world in the countries that have reopened. I know Spain is already seeing a comeback of the disease, with infections tripling in 3 weeks after reopening.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN24L2BE
 
joeblow10
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:46 am

Flew today for the first time since before the 4th, absolutely packed in the airports at every point from the counters to baggage claim. 98% of people wearing masks. I’m not saying we’ll continue to see growth in the numbers but I certainly don’t see it falling off a cliff, at least until the summer is over
 
N766UA
Posts: 8403
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:41 am

joeblow10 wrote:
Flew today for the first time since before the 4th, absolutely packed in the airports at every point from the counters to baggage claim. 98% of people wearing masks. I’m not saying we’ll continue to see growth in the numbers but I certainly don’t see it falling off a cliff, at least until the summer is over


What airports are you in? I fly 4 days a week and, while we’re doing better than 3 months ago, I’m yet to see anything even close to “absolutely packed.”
 
joeblow10
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:02 am

N766UA wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Flew today for the first time since before the 4th, absolutely packed in the airports at every point from the counters to baggage claim. 98% of people wearing masks. I’m not saying we’ll continue to see growth in the numbers but I certainly don’t see it falling off a cliff, at least until the summer is over


What airports are you in? I fly 4 days a week and, while we’re doing better than 3 months ago, I’m yet to see anything even close to “absolutely packed.”


MCO-ATL today - granted, in ATL, it was after a storm so a bunch of folks landed at once, but it was jam packed. Literally nearly shoulder to shoulder on the plane train

I should note - the one point that still felt far more empty than normal was TSA. I’m used to 10-15 mins at MCO “pre-COVID”, even with Precheck, it was simply walk up and walk thru. But everywhere else felt far more full - I guess when capacity is down 70% and 20% of passengers are back, it should
 
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atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4655
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:15 am

Please keep the thread on topic.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
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atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4655
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:27 am

chrisair wrote:
Since I'm sure my post will get edited or deleted, it's good to see growth from June to July. Even cherry picking the dates looks somewhat encouraging. Look, you can't really pull out trends from day to day numbers until you get farther in the future. Comparing seven day averages is better, IMO.

We do not and have never edited posts. We aren't permitted to edit posts.
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:05 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:06 pm

July 20 2020:

695,330

2,635,312

26.39 %
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:55 pm

Remember hub airports in the US are often banked and eateries are still closed. At MIA it can seem packed and 30 minutes later it’s a ghost town.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1812
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:18 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Everyone in my circle - personal and business wants to travel.
However between a combination of travel bans/restrictions, border closures, and just safety throughout the whole the travel experience (not just the flying aspect) they are not going to travel.
The numbers reflect this sentiment.

If we get the virus under control, get more things back to normal, and people feel safe they will travel.

We are not there in the US and won't be for a long time.


People ARE travelling, they just aren't doing it in packed Sky Bus's...

While pax counts are around 25% of last year, private Jet/GA travel was UP 5% over last year on the 4th of July weekend.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... ad83a6380d

For the largest operators, bookings are at around 80% of last year at the moment. That is only going to increase.
Private jet biz taking off amid coronavirus pandemic
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/p ... r-BB16Vp0l

With the end of the pilot shortage, operators are ADDING capacity, at wages they can afford to pay, and still get passengers.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... 302e11fb0a

Travel patterns are shifting. Driving within a certain range is now acceptable, and even preffered. Longer trips, when justified by those that can afford to, are going to be by GA for the foreseeable future.
Until large meetings/Conventions come back, Biz travel via airline is going to be minimal.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2233
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:37 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
We do not and have never edited posts. We aren't permitted to edit posts.


Thanks for the correction. I guess I got y’all confused with FT.

Cheers.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1944
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:33 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Everyone in my circle - personal and business wants to travel.
However between a combination of travel bans/restrictions, border closures, and just safety throughout the whole the travel experience (not just the flying aspect) they are not going to travel.
The numbers reflect this sentiment.

If we get the virus under control, get more things back to normal, and people feel safe they will travel.

We are not there in the US and won't be for a long time.


People ARE travelling, they just aren't doing it in packed Sky Bus's...

While pax counts are around 25% of last year, private Jet/GA travel was UP 5% over last year on the 4th of July weekend.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... ad83a6380d

For the largest operators, bookings are at around 80% of last year at the moment. That is only going to increase.
Private jet biz taking off amid coronavirus pandemic
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/p ... r-BB16Vp0l

With the end of the pilot shortage, operators are ADDING capacity, at wages they can afford to pay, and still get passengers.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan ... 302e11fb0a

Travel patterns are shifting. Driving within a certain range is now acceptable, and even preffered. Longer trips, when justified by those that can afford to, are going to be by GA for the foreseeable future.
Until large meetings/Conventions come back, Biz travel via airline is going to be minimal.

Yippee. Private jet travel being up 5% is a drop in the bucket compare to airline traffic being down 75%. The number of people who can afford to travel that way is just too small.
 
MikeChin
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:35 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:58 pm

My guess, is that current levels of traffic (700,000+/- per day) equals to the "minimum required travel" that "needs" to happen regardless of the situation, and to have a significan jump above these numbers, we would need to see a significant improvement with the pandemic situation, that can relax restrictions for business travel and serve mass tourism. At least on the domestic side this could potentially push numbers to +/- 60% of 2019 levels.

Additionally, we would need to have restrictions lifted on international travel, to really see traffic back to 2019 levels.

That being said, we can still see a new traffic drop if the situation does not improve.
 
alfa164
Posts: 4000
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:33 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The world cannot be shut down forever and can't run around with masks on (which present all kinds of health problems the MSM will never discuss) .


We have, as individuals, become far too self-centered and self-important - much to the detriment of our nation and our society. Until everyone recognized the severity of this virus - and treats it accordingly - flying numbers will remain depressed.

During the Second World War, Londoners were asked to black-out their homes at night so the enemy bombers wouldn’t see the lights and know where to target. No Londoner said, ”It’s my right to have my lights on”. No Londoner said, "We can't run around with our lights off all night". No Londoner said, "Having my lights off presents all kind of health problems". If anyone tried those excuses. everyone would remind them, ”your light on endangers us.”

Now... substitute "Mask" for "Light"... and remind me of the argument you are trying to make.
 
Babyshark
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:21 am

alfa164 wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
The world cannot be shut down forever and can't run around with masks on (which present all kinds of health problems the MSM will never discuss) .


We have, as individuals, become far too self-centered and self-important - much to the detriment of our nation and our society. Until everyone recognized the severity of this virus - and treats it accordingly - flying numbers will remain depressed.

During the Second World War, Londoners were asked to black-out their homes at night so the enemy bombers wouldn’t see the lights and know where to target. No Londoner said, ”It’s my right to have my lights on”. No Londoner said, "We can't run around with our lights off all night". No Londoner said, "Having my lights off presents all kind of health problems". If anyone tried those excuses. everyone would remind them, ”your light on endangers us.”

Now... substitute "Mask" for "Light"... and remind me of the argument you are trying to make.


It actually is a pretty good analogy, but to make the point masks don’t work.

The Germans used Knickebein or radio beams to find their target, and the first group dropped incendiary bombs for the others to follow.

So blacking our your lights probably made it easier for them to see the fires from the bombs from the first wave.

To which the Luftwaffe would have probably said the blacking out the lights did nothing to stop them, they knew where London was, what they wanted was their target. So thanks for doing it, don’t mind my laughing.

Kind of like how the virus laughs at masks. These cloth masks are pointless. Given how viruses spread and that plenty of real studies, not short abstracts, showed that. If you really want to block the virus you don’t restrict your breathing with a porous undoubtedly filthy nasty disgusting unwashed face cloth.

You wear a genuine respirator. And not even a N95 mask, that’s mostly worthless too. You need the real thing. Just like the Chinese used later in the covid outbreak.

Problem is it will freak people out. I mean honestly the politics to this by those who demand masks is they want some level of fear and panic, but the respirator will make you scream. Too much.

But back to your analogy, you had people screaming black out your windows just like you have people screaming just wear a mask, both just as clueless and pointless.
 
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qf789
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:22 am

Despite several warnings to keep the thread on topic, they havent been adhered to therefore the thread is locked.
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