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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:08 pm

morrisond wrote:
[I don't have access to the numbers but wasn't it reported in these pages many times that the 737 has a lower fatality rate than the A320? Or if higher not statistically significant to be considered worse? This may have just been for the 737 NG which has been around for most of the life of the A320.


The reason why the NG might have lower crash/fatality rate than the 320 is because many older frames and older generation 320 are included in the 320 rate (probably even the 1988 Hapsheim accident, way before the NG was even on the horizon).

Newer generation frames tend to be more safe than older generation (until Max, that is).

If you include the 300/400/500 models in the 737 group (creating a more evenly balanced group time-wise), then you will find that he 320 is not worse than the 737. And I'd suspect that if you'd eliminate A320 frames prior to 737NG first delivery, the 320 will have better numbers than the 737.
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olle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:10 pm

Will Norwegian cancel some Max?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:11 pm

Revelation wrote:
As per https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SL4N2C800K in our news thread, lessor China Development Bank has canceled 29 MAXes.

What's interesting to me is they kept 70 they had on order.

This is similar to earlier cancellations: they cancel some but not all. Why? Are there some they cannot get out from, or do they think they will eventually want some? Or are they dumping orders as deposits become due and will continue to do so? I guess we can all speculate.

Also they are shifting all MAX10 orders to MAX8. Is this because they don't think MAX10 will happen, or it won't gain market acceptance, or it's just being delayed so they don't want to wait?

It also says 20 orders are deferred to 2024-6. This could mean they are shifting them out till later so Boeing can save face and will cancel them later, or it could mean they really think these slots may have value in 2024-6.


I suspect there are contractual reasons. It’s possible that some tranches of the orders are easier to cancel than others. It would seem reasonable to cancel the ones you can and then defer deliveries on ones you can’t or would cost to cancel. Hopefully they can then find customers for the deferred planes at a later date.
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oldJoe
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:21 pm

olle wrote:
Will Norwegian cancel some Max?

The biggest question is : will they survive ? I hope so. Wich orders then are forced to be cancelled will be sorted out .
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:05 am

PW100 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
[I don't have access to the numbers but wasn't it reported in these pages many times that the 737 has a lower fatality rate than the A320? Or if higher not statistically significant to be considered worse? This may have just been for the 737 NG which has been around for most of the life of the A320.


The reason why the NG might have lower crash/fatality rate than the 320 is because many older frames and older generation 320 are included in the 320 rate (probably even the 1988 Hapsheim accident, way before the NG was even on the horizon).

Newer generation frames tend to be more safe than older generation (until Max, that is).

If you include the 300/400/500 models in the 737 group (creating a more evenly balanced group time-wise), then you will find that he 320 is not worse than the 737. And I'd suspect that if you'd eliminate A320 frames prior to 737NG first delivery, the 320 will have better numbers than the 737.


And if you had fully quoted me I was responding to the theory that FBW is a lot safer - even if the NG is higher than the 320 for the same time of production - it will not be that much higher - one crash either way would flip the results. The NG does not have a crash rate that is significantly different - FBW is no panacea. That being said I don't think any new design going forward shouldn't be FBW, however non-fbw aircraft can be operated safely with the right training.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:01 am

kalvado wrote:
Thing is, problem #2 does not exist. MCAS failure presents a situation that should NEVER EVER occur in a moderately shitty design. Eliminating that class of failures should actually mean that the crew never has to deal with that type of failure.
Training for unknown unknowns is in a different realm than line pilot training. Yes, Apollo program training probably included that - but even then we know what was the response for "Try SCE to AUX"

It is a problem that exists though due to problems in design phase. The problem was that Boeing ran out of clearance and had to shift engines forward and higher which brought about a pitch up tendency in certain phases. They had no time to come up with a new jet, not unless they were willing cede significant market share to Airbus.

The Indonesian authorities did a fantastic job on their report. Allocated blame to the previous crew for not fully reporting, maintenance for being shoddy,a first officer in the doomed flight for not being up to scratch, and Lion Air knowing that and still keeping him flying. They then went to things like why MCAS existed, increased authority, hazard classification (and the need to not escalate the hazard level), wrong assumptions like trim cut out switches not being required and how not having MCAS revelation really hampered crews from recognizing the real problems. The FAA sleeping on the job is also there in.

This was a classic case of commercial pressures, de-regulation gone wrong, poor practices at an airline. However, it is unlikely that we have this cascade if the OEM had better planning, more oversight, and above all else, humility across its entire design team that demands honesty.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:33 am

seahawk wrote:
Better training would probably not have saved the 2 MAX, yet if you look at the crew coordination and reaction times, they would still struggle with a serious fault in any modern airliner.

Any other airliner is so much more fault tolerant, that the same level of crew proficiency is not causing huge peaks in the accident statistics.

If you like, I can show you you again the diagrams that show the fault tolerance gap between the MAX and any other aircraft. The MAX has more than 50 times worse fatalities-per-RPK figures than worldwide aviation, both flown by the same pool of ordinary crews.

Training which aims to improve the excellent safety stats of global aviation will cost a fortune, will have little impact (because global safety already became that good) and is off topic in this thread.

Training just for the MAX pilots will kill Boeings business case and means, that the MAX requires much more pilot proficiency than the modern aircraft out there. IMO the goal should be, that the MAX will achieve the same crash rates as all the other aircraft with the same crew proficiency. For that the MAX will simply have to be properly designed.
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:44 am

Current training for all airliners expects crews to memorize memory items, which the Lion Air co-pilot clearly did not.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:52 am

I guess that the Virgin Australia order is canceled to now they've entered bankruptcy?
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:26 am

IWMBH wrote:
I guess that the Virgin Australia order is canceled to now they've entered bankruptcy?


They have not actually entered bankruptcy. In Australia it is a process called voluntary external administration. The Administrator has said he has received at least 10 expressions of interest in buying the business. A likely result is that leased aircraft will be returned, existing shareholders and creditors will lose most of their investment and a new operator will run a smaller leaner fleet.

The existing contract may well be repudiated, depending on whether it makes business sense under the current outlook for the aviation market in Australia. (And whether they believe it will ever fly again of course :D
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:37 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Thing is, problem #2 does not exist. MCAS failure presents a situation that should NEVER EVER occur in a moderately shitty design. Eliminating that class of failures should actually mean that the crew never has to deal with that type of failure.
Training for unknown unknowns is in a different realm than line pilot training. Yes, Apollo program training probably included that - but even then we know what was the response for "Try SCE to AUX"

It is a problem that exists though due to problems in design phase. The problem was that Boeing ran out of clearance and had to shift engines forward and higher which brought about a pitch up tendency in certain phases. They had no time to come up with a new jet, not unless they were willing cede significant market share to Airbus.

The Indonesian authorities did a fantastic job on their report. Allocated blame to the previous crew for not fully reporting, maintenance for being shoddy,a first officer in the doomed flight for not being up to scratch, and Lion Air knowing that and still keeping him flying. They then went to things like why MCAS existed, increased authority, hazard classification (and the need to not escalate the hazard level), wrong assumptions like trim cut out switches not being required and how not having MCAS revelation really hampered crews from recognizing the real problems. The FAA sleeping on the job is also there in.

This was a classic case of commercial pressures, de-regulation gone wrong, poor practices at an airline. However, it is unlikely that we have this cascade if the OEM had better planning, more oversight, and above all else, humility across its entire design team that demands honesty.

Life is not perfect - eat desert first!
Maintenance doing less than a perfect job? Anyone really surprised?
Crew not fully understood the problem and reported it as they could? Sure, engineering degree is not required to fly as a line pilot.
Repair shopping so job? Of course they are trying to save on all the red tape.

But

There is ONE thing totally absolutely beyond normal life imperfections. Multiple cascading issues from one failure.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:41 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Better training would probably not have saved the 2 MAX, yet if you look at the crew coordination and reaction times, they would still struggle with a serious fault in any modern airliner.

Any other airliner is so much more fault tolerant, that the same level of crew proficiency is not causing huge peaks in the accident statistics.

If you like, I can show you you again the diagrams that show the fault tolerance gap between the MAX and any other aircraft. The MAX has more than 50 times worse fatalities-per-RPK figures than worldwide aviation, both flown by the same pool of ordinary crews.

Training which aims to improve the excellent safety stats of global aviation will cost a fortune, will have little impact (because global safety already became that good) and is off topic in this thread.

Training just for the MAX pilots will kill Boeings business case and means, that the MAX requires much more pilot proficiency than the modern aircraft out there. IMO the goal should be, that the MAX will achieve the same crash rates as all the other aircraft with the same crew proficiency. For that the MAX will simply have to be properly designed.


Explain AirAsia 8501 then. They couldn't fly it in Direct Law.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
Current training for all airliners expects crews to memorize memory items, which the Lion Air co-pilot clearly did not.



Is that the MCAS memory item that he didn't memorize? Care to refresh us of the steps he forgot to take?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:01 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Training which aims to improve the excellent safety stats of global aviation will cost a fortune, will have little impact (because global safety already became that good) and is off topic in this thread.

Training just for the MAX pilots will kill Boeings business case and means, that the MAX requires much more pilot proficiency than the modern aircraft out there. IMO the goal should be, that the MAX will achieve the same crash rates as all the other aircraft with the same crew proficiency. For that the MAX will simply have to be properly designed.

A single issue or two separate things, we are told daily that Being business case was 1 million to WN if additional sim training for NG to MAX was required, now despite the losses already incurred Boeing is either voluntarily or forced into sim training, should that not force a program shut down as the basic core would never be profitable at a unit level?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:24 pm

par13del wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
Training which aims to improve the excellent safety stats of global aviation will cost a fortune, will have little impact (because global safety already became that good) and is off topic in this thread.

Training just for the MAX pilots will kill Boeings business case and means, that the MAX requires much more pilot proficiency than the modern aircraft out there. IMO the goal should be, that the MAX will achieve the same crash rates as all the other aircraft with the same crew proficiency. For that the MAX will simply have to be properly designed.

A single issue or two separate things, we are told daily that Being business case was 1 million to WN if additional sim training for NG to MAX was required, now despite the losses already incurred Boeing is either voluntarily or forced into sim training, should that not force a program shut down as the basic core would never be profitable at a unit level?

The busieness logic is different. What would be better - shutting down MAX program now (and eating up cost of 800 already built planes!) or pushing forward and extracting whatever small amount of money can be made to partially offset losses? Yes, program will never make money either way - but which way it will loose more money? Past spending doesn't matter for that decision - those are money which are already spent. It is only the future which needs to be considered.
And 800 frames are a very big loss to swallow...
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:31 pm

kalvado wrote:
The busieness logic is different. What would be better - shutting down MAX program now (and eating up cost of 800 already built planes!) or pushing forward and extracting whatever small amount of money can be made to partially offset losses? Yes, program will never make money either way - but which way it will loose more money? Past spending doesn't matter for that decision - those are money which are already spent. It is only the future which needs to be considered.
And 800 frames are a very big loss to swallow...

Black hole argument, if sim training makes the unit cost uneconomic it is uneconomic.
Take the 787 program, individual units are now profitable and contributing to reducing the overall program cost, even if it may never be profitable before termination.
If we believe the pundits who say the MAX business case is ruined by the training compensation, we have a different scenario, the unit cost will never be a positive contributor and you will know that for every additional unit you produce you are throwing more into the black hole.

Now if the sim training cost is just piling on, more logical arguments can be put forward.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:14 pm

kalvado wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Thing is, problem #2 does not exist. MCAS failure presents a situation that should NEVER EVER occur in a moderately shitty design. Eliminating that class of failures should actually mean that the crew never has to deal with that type of failure.
Training for unknown unknowns is in a different realm than line pilot training. Yes, Apollo program training probably included that - but even then we know what was the response for "Try SCE to AUX"

It is a problem that exists though due to problems in design phase. The problem was that Boeing ran out of clearance and had to shift engines forward and higher which brought about a pitch up tendency in certain phases. They had no time to come up with a new jet, not unless they were willing cede significant market share to Airbus.

The Indonesian authorities did a fantastic job on their report. Allocated blame to the previous crew for not fully reporting, maintenance for being shoddy,a first officer in the doomed flight for not being up to scratch, and Lion Air knowing that and still keeping him flying. They then went to things like why MCAS existed, increased authority, hazard classification (and the need to not escalate the hazard level), wrong assumptions like trim cut out switches not being required and how not having MCAS revelation really hampered crews from recognizing the real problems. The FAA sleeping on the job is also there in.

This was a classic case of commercial pressures, de-regulation gone wrong, poor practices at an airline. However, it is unlikely that we have this cascade if the OEM had better planning, more oversight, and above all else, humility across its entire design team that demands honesty.

Life is not perfect - eat desert first!
Maintenance doing less than a perfect job? Anyone really surprised?
Crew not fully understood the problem and reported it as they could? Sure, engineering degree is not required to fly as a line pilot.
Repair shopping so job? Of course they are trying to save on all the red tape.

But

There is ONE thing totally absolutely beyond normal life imperfections. Multiple cascading issues from one failure.
I am not expecting perfection, what is expected though is that the best be done, to everyone's ability. That starts with how the plane is built and certified.

If airline staff fail after all that, then the two ahead of the line have done their part. That is the way it ought to be in this low aircraft crash era.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:42 pm

par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
The busieness logic is different. What would be better - shutting down MAX program now (and eating up cost of 800 already built planes!) or pushing forward and extracting whatever small amount of money can be made to partially offset losses? Yes, program will never make money either way - but which way it will loose more money? Past spending doesn't matter for that decision - those are money which are already spent. It is only the future which needs to be considered.
And 800 frames are a very big loss to swallow...

Black hole argument, if sim training makes the unit cost uneconomic it is uneconomic.
Take the 787 program, individual units are now profitable and contributing to reducing the overall program cost, even if it may never be profitable before termination.
If we believe the pundits who say the MAX business case is ruined by the training compensation, we have a different scenario, the unit cost will never be a positive contributor and you will know that for every additional unit you produce you are throwing more into the black hole.

Now if the sim training cost is just piling on, more logical arguments can be put forward.

Remember - pre-built frames are the the handicap. If they can be made servicable with $10M loss per frame, it is still preferable to write-off with $50M loss per frame. THose $40B is what drives any MAX decision, not a few million here and there.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:55 pm

kalvado wrote:
Remember - pre-built frames are the the handicap. If they can be made servicable with $10M loss per frame, it is still preferable to write-off with $50M loss per frame. THose $40B is what drives any MAX decision, not a few million here and there.

Such has no effect on the sim training economic hit if real as a number of posters claim. Nothing that EASA or the FAA have been pushing in the cockpit human interface are being touted as an alternative to sim training, so if one has to do sim training for a already built modified frame or a new build with all features, what is the difference?

Personally, I do not believe the thought that carriers million dollar penalty is responsible for this debacle, but stating such in this thread is unacceptable, especially if the default caveats are not mentioned first.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:30 pm

Even if the extra training is $1 Million per frame which seems very excessive - Boeing has more than a 10% margin on contracted deliveries (assuming all that margin doesn't get negotiated away) - that should more than cover it and make sense to pay for it if necessary.

Although I doubt all airlines had the same clause as WN.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:45 pm

enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Current training for all airliners expects crews to memorize memory items, which the Lion Air co-pilot clearly did not.



Is that the MCAS memory item that he didn't memorize? Care to refresh us of the steps he forgot to take?


Unreliable airspeed is. You should really read chapter 2.3.1 and also 2.3.4 of the final report. That does not change anything about the technical faults of the MAX, but still does mirror what has been learned after other accidents in the region, regardless of aircraft type. In fact it is something that has caused concern for decades now.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:58 pm

morrisond wrote:
Even if the extra training is $1 Million per frame which seems very excessive - Boeing has more than a 10% margin on contracted deliveries (assuming all that margin doesn't get negotiated away) - that should more than cover it and make sense to pay for it if necessary.


Yet we've all read how the MAX business case was absolutely dependent on no training being required and also seen the lengths to which Boeing was prepared to go in order to ensure that remained the case (Jedi mind tricks and customer shaming). Boeing might have been able to pay it from margin, but it would have meant blowing their target ROI (though I think that ship has now long since sailed).
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:14 pm

scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Even if the extra training is $1 Million per frame which seems very excessive - Boeing has more than a 10% margin on contracted deliveries (assuming all that margin doesn't get negotiated away) - that should more than cover it and make sense to pay for it if necessary.


Yet we've all read how the MAX business case was absolutely dependent on no training being required and also seen the lengths to which Boeing was prepared to go in order to ensure that remained the case (Jedi mind tricks and customer shaming). Boeing might have been able to pay it from margin, but it would have meant blowing their target ROI (though I think that ship has now long since sailed).

I'm not sure the MAX business case was "absolutely dependent on no training being required" even though it's clear Boeing management did communicate the situation to engineering and it's clear that Forkner acted as it it was. What I'm saying is I'm confident Boeing management created an atmosphere where attention to cost was very much emphasized, but I'm not sure it really was a make or break thing. It simply could be greedy managers being paranoid about their own holdings of Boeing stock or future prospects pushing hard to get the last penny on the dollar out of their own greed and self interest. I've been in big companies where various one-liners such as "if we need sim training we take a $1M hit per airplane" get passed around with absolutely no other context, but given the ones saying it are in one's management chain they can take on a life all their own.
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:17 pm

morrisond wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Better training would probably not have saved the 2 MAX, yet if you look at the crew coordination and reaction times, they would still struggle with a serious fault in any modern airliner.

Any other airliner is so much more fault tolerant, that the same level of crew proficiency is not causing huge peaks in the accident statistics.

If you like, I can show you you again the diagrams that show the fault tolerance gap between the MAX and any other aircraft. The MAX has more than 50 times worse fatalities-per-RPK figures than worldwide aviation, both flown by the same pool of ordinary crews.

Training which aims to improve the excellent safety stats of global aviation will cost a fortune, will have little impact (because global safety already became that good) and is off topic in this thread.

Training just for the MAX pilots will kill Boeings business case and means, that the MAX requires much more pilot proficiency than the modern aircraft out there. IMO the goal should be, that the MAX will achieve the same crash rates as all the other aircraft with the same crew proficiency. For that the MAX will simply have to be properly designed.


Explain AirAsia 8501 then. They couldn't fly it in Direct Law.

AirAsia 8501 contributed to the A320 crash rate, but it did not make the A320 crash rate exceptional. It was a drop in the sea of safe A320 operations.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:44 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
Any other airliner is so much more fault tolerant, that the same level of crew proficiency is not causing huge peaks in the accident statistics.

If you like, I can show you you again the diagrams that show the fault tolerance gap between the MAX and any other aircraft. The MAX has more than 50 times worse fatalities-per-RPK figures than worldwide aviation, both flown by the same pool of ordinary crews.

Training which aims to improve the excellent safety stats of global aviation will cost a fortune, will have little impact (because global safety already became that good) and is off topic in this thread.

Training just for the MAX pilots will kill Boeings business case and means, that the MAX requires much more pilot proficiency than the modern aircraft out there. IMO the goal should be, that the MAX will achieve the same crash rates as all the other aircraft with the same crew proficiency. For that the MAX will simply have to be properly designed.


Explain AirAsia 8501 then. They couldn't fly it in Direct Law.

AirAsia 8501 contributed to the A320 crash rate, but it did not make the A320 crash rate exceptional. It was a drop in the sea of safe A320 operations.



Ok - I understand your point of view then - Pilot proficiency shouldn't actually include the ability to actually fly an aircraft. If we loose the odd one because of that - no biggie. Understood.
 
kayik
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:06 pm

Some of those 400 undelivered aircraft are sitting deserted for over a year now. 6 months on average. It is said that It will take about a year to deliver those. If there will be a RTS, september earliest, it means another 7 months. Why would an airline accept a two year old airplane, modified, while others get freshly baked ones out of the assembly line? Does anybody see any problem there?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:34 pm

Well the production line is presently shut down, when restarted how long do you think it will take them to get to 30 per month versus the 52 that they wanted to hit a couple years ago?
Boeing priority will probably be a slow line while clearing out the produced frames, that was not the initial plan, but their efforts to hire staff just to clear them did not go so well then COVID hit, so those 400+ frames are now more valuable.
 
michael478
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:40 am

morrisond wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Explain AirAsia 8501 then. They couldn't fly it in Direct Law.

AirAsia 8501 contributed to the A320 crash rate, but it did not make the A320 crash rate exceptional. It was a drop in the sea of safe A320 operations.



Ok - I understand your point of view then - Pilot proficiency shouldn't actually include the ability to actually fly an aircraft. If we loose the odd one because of that - no biggie. Understood.


First create a safe plane without hidden death modes. Then if pilots have trouble flying that plane we can discuss about training standards

Also. Considering that boeing fought tooth and nail to stop airlines from offering max training to their pilots, its kind of reach to use the insufficient training excuse to deflect blame
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:13 am

We must have had hundreds if not thousands of posts to this stage of various levels of blame and abuse directed to Boeing. However much this may be warranted, surely everybody has vented their spleens by now. We all get it, Boeing messed up big time. But do we have to just keep saying the same things over and over again?
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:44 pm

Looks like a new delay is looming: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/24/boe ... virus.html

Sources familiar with the latest expectations for fixing the 737 Max tell CNBC the plane is unlikely to be given the green light until late summer.

Boeing still needs to complete two software updates and clear a number of other hurdles, including a recertification flight, before the Max can be cleared to return to commercial service.

While Boeing has completed a number of steps to get the plane back in the air, the company says the coronavirus is slowing down work on fixing the Max.
Good moaning!
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:07 pm

kalvado wrote:
Unfortunately, like too many other US institutions, FBI is unable to do a serious professional job, being pre-occupied with political games.

Do you have actual evidence of political interference, or are you sharing a perception that you have formed?

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Looks like a new delay is looming: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/24/boe ... virus.html

Sources familiar with the latest expectations for fixing the 737 Max tell CNBC the plane is unlikely to be given the green light until late summer.

Boeing still needs to complete two software updates and clear a number of other hurdles, including a recertification flight, before the Max can be cleared to return to commercial service.

While Boeing has completed a number of steps to get the plane back in the air, the company says the coronavirus is slowing down work on fixing the Max.

At this point with production halted and customers not interested in taking deliveries, I doubt slipping a few more months matters much to anyone.
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
At this point with production halted and customers not interested in taking deliveries, I doubt slipping a few more months matters much to anyone.


With just about everyone else's attention focused elsewhere and on other priorities, it is pretty much "Meh" news.
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kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Unfortunately, like too many other US institutions, FBI is unable to do a serious professional job, being pre-occupied with political games.

Do you have actual evidence of political interference, or are you sharing a perception that you have formed?

I am not talking about political interference, I am talking about political ambitions seemingly existing in the leadership of security agencies. It is speculation only, but remember eager witch hunt after someone dared to publish real documents about certain presidential candidate..
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:51 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Unfortunately, like too many other US institutions, FBI is unable to do a serious professional job, being pre-occupied with political games.

Do you have actual evidence of political interference, or are you sharing a perception that you have formed?

I am not talking about political interference, I am talking about political ambitions seemingly existing in the leadership of security agencies. It is speculation only, but remember eager witch hunt after someone dared to publish real documents about certain presidential candidate..

I am ok with speculation as long as the appropriate qualifiers are specified. I understand there is perception of a lot of gamesmanship going on. I also would think that kind of thing is more likely when a politician was being investigated. I think that FBI is still working the case seriously. We did hear of some more grand jury interviews earlier this year. The legal standard for some of the things being investigated is pretty high. The outcome very well could be no criminal charges due to insufficient evidence. We all know there are civil cases pending.

I've been pretty clear in giving my opinion after reviewing the message dump that it feels like something fishy is going on. There are a lot of people making decisions one would think were independent yet seem to be done with a definite goal in mind for me to think there wasn't a good degree of pressure being applied behind the scenes. The message dump gives us lots of evidence that the FAA was being gamed when it comes to the training requirements. It's not too big a leap to wonder if other aspects of the development process were being gamed.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
At this point with production halted and customers not interested in taking deliveries, I doubt slipping a few more months matters much to anyone.

I would think that it is very much in Boeing's interest to be in a position that they *can* deliver Max. ASAP. Regulatory approcval is required for that (RtS - Return to Service) to happen.

The longer RtS takes, the less control Boeing has over its Max back log. Which makes Boeing even more vulnerable to compenstation claims - sort of free cash for airline customers which have seen their business income drop like never before. Or worse, customers may walk away freely (and possibly claiming pre-delivery payments as well) from accepting delivery commitments for capacity orderd in a pre Covid-19 world, which may not be needed for the foreseeable future in a post-Covid-19 landscape, as long as Boeing is unable to fullfill contractual obligations when RtS is not yet secured.
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Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CBS reporting fix late summer:
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/24/boe ... virus.html

"Boeing still needs to complete two software updates and clear a number of other hurdles, including a recertification flight, before the Max can be cleared to return to commercial service."


Might be a blessing in disguise, airlines won't be in any shape to accept deliveries earlier than that anyway. :(
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:19 am

No news until August - maybe?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKCN22A35G

Boeing Co’s grounded 737 MAX jet is expected to remain grounded until at least August as the manufacturer continues to grapple with software issues, people briefed on the matter told Reuters.

The largest planemaker has signaled it now hopes to win regulatory approval in August for the plane’s return to service, but that could be pushed backed until fall, the sources said, as timing for meeting milestones is uncertain.


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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:01 am

Do we know if they still plan to restart production in May? I would think given the virus and collapse of travel that has also been deferred. The 400 frames produced may take some shifting without adding to the inventory.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:05 pm

Boeing took a $797 million charge in Q1:

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-04-29 ... er-Results

$797 million of abnormal production costs from the temporary suspension of 737 MAX production
Good moaning!
 
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ITMercure
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:28 pm

At least a 797... oh wait? :roll:

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Boeing took a $797 million charge in Q1:

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-04-29 ... er-Results

$797 million of abnormal production costs from the temporary suspension of 737 MAX production
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:14 pm

ITMercure wrote:
At least a 797... oh wait? :roll:

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Boeing took a $797 million charge in Q1:

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-04-29 ... er-Results

$797 million of abnormal production costs from the temporary suspension of 737 MAX production


Probably the only 797 we will be seeing from Beancounter Boeing in a long, long time.
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:52 pm

Still no final ET crash report, not even sources or leaks talking about its imminent release or delay...
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:13 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
Still no final ET crash report, not even sources or leaks talking about its imminent release or delay...


I'll be surprised if we ever see one and that other authorities ever sign off on it as it excludes so much of what is normally in a final crash report.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:43 pm

morrisond wrote:
TaromA380 wrote:
Still no final ET crash report, not even sources or leaks talking about its imminent release or delay...


I'll be surprised if we ever see one and that other authorities ever sign off on it as it excludes so much of what is normally in a final crash report.


Are you just trying to smear in advance? How can you know what the final report excludes if it hasn't been published?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:22 pm

StTim wrote:
morrisond wrote:
TaromA380 wrote:
Still no final ET crash report, not even sources or leaks talking about its imminent release or delay...


I'll be surprised if we ever see one and that other authorities ever sign off on it as it excludes so much of what is normally in a final crash report.


Are you just trying to smear in advance? How can you know what the final report excludes if it hasn't been published?


Based on what was seen in the preliminary final report - which wasn't much. Who I knows I might be wrong but given there history with ET409 I doubt it.

The ETAA basically said it was an explosion and not crew fault (ET 409).

You can read the whole Investigation here and come to your own conclusion - basic problems with Aircraft handing from a Captain who went through the ET system at about the same time as the Et302 Captain

https://www.bea.aero/docspa/2010/et-b10 ... 125.en.pdf

Boeing was the root cause of ET302 but that doesn't mean the ET302 crew had issues that needs to be fixed as well.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:46 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
At this point with production halted and customers not interested in taking deliveries, I doubt slipping a few more months matters much to anyone.


With just about everyone else's attention focused elsewhere and on other priorities, it is pretty much "Meh" news.

I would have thought the millions due to the families would be needed now more than ever since so many jobs have been lost and that would have ensured that "Boeing has to pay" would not be lost in the news.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:50 pm

morrisond wrote:

Boeing was the root cause of ET302 but that doesn't mean the ET302 crew had issues that needs to be fixed as well.


No one believes Boeing is uniquely at fault for the crash and their will be lessons to be learnt for other parts of the industry. But from my time reading aircraft accident reports (interested Mechanical Engineer only) I can think of no other recent one where the brunt of the responsibility does lie with the manufacturer.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:19 pm

StTim wrote:
[
No one believes Boeing is uniquely at fault for the crash and their will be lessons to be learnt for other parts of the industry.


Then you obviously have not spent much time reading this forum. I could name quite a few who believe precisely that - that there is only issues at Boeing and everything else is peachy keen in aviation.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:27 pm

morrisond wrote:
StTim wrote:
[
No one believes Boeing is uniquely at fault for the crash and their will be lessons to be learnt for other parts of the industry.


Then you obviously have not spent much time reading this forum. I could name quite a few who believe precisely that - that there is only issues at Boeing and everything else is peachy keen in aviation.


From reading the forum there are (probably better to say were as many are now silent) that only blamed the airlines and the non US pilots for the crashes.

I agree there are also some who seem to uniquely blame Boeing but the majority know that almost every crash has multiple causes.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 8:59 pm

Does anybody know the specific reason why Oman Air 737MAX8 A4O-ML flew to VCV today? I initially presumed storage like the others, but it's in the full Boeing livery (see 1st link), and it parked near the paint hangers (see 2nd link), an unusual location for storing an aircraft. Can anyone confirm if they are repainting it into the Oman Air livery, or if it is just in storage, or if it's at VCV for a completely different reason? Also, it completed at least 7 go arounds before going to parking, strange.

https://twitter.com/AeroimagesChris/sta ... 9327464448
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... l#24729f4d
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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