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acavpics
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Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 12:49 am

Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?
 
EMB170
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:27 am

I can't say if it will be as successful as the A333, but TP has 15 frames already in service. Closer to home, DL has placed 35 orders for the A339 with the right to convert A359 orders to A339neo if they choose! Other operators/firm orders include VS, KU, MK, and GA.
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oldJoe
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:27 am

I doubt that the A330neo would become as succesful as the -200s or -300s. Much depends for how much Airbus can offer the frame.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:41 am

Well the A330ceo family booked 1,486 and delivered 1,451 in total
the A330neo has booked 333 and delivered 46.

If the A330 can be produced at 50 per year for 20 years + what has been delivered, the NEO will be as successful as the CEO.

However, the worldwide WB fleets were saturated by a few years ago, where orders were tailing off. Covid has impacted International travel more than Domestic, until all of the planes are back flying there will be little desire to order more planes beyond what is contracted for. It seems to be a huge task to sell 50 A330's a year, every years for 20 years. A good guess is there will be 400 to 500 more orders possibly.

Further complicating things is that Air Asia X has announced it is not receiving new planes puts its 78 in the questionable status.
Also, Cebu Pacific has 16 and Iran Air has 28, will these get delivered?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:48 am

The A330-300 especially benefitted from continuous increases in Operating Weights which allowed it to cover most routes being flown by 777-200ERs (even if it's raw range was lower) at fairly lower fuel burns. Add in the significant delays for the 787-9 and that gave it a very strong window of opportunity that airlines and Airbus made the most of.

By the time the A330-900 arrived on the scene, the 787-9 and A350-900 were more readily available and offered similar fuel burn per seat, but with higher payload-range. So even if an A330-300 operator did not necessarily need the raw range of the A350-900 and 787-9, there wasn't really a penalty to having it so airlines started to favor those frames over an A330-900.

As such, I don't see how the A330neo could reach the popularity of their older sisters, but then it doesn't really have to be considering the low development and production costs. So it should still be a successful program for Airbus.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 2:22 am

There is no chance the NEO will match the CEO.

There will be a point where Airbus can no longer justify producing both the A330NEO and A350 at around half of the optimal production rate instead of just running the A350 line at full rate.

In a few years time Airbus will start pushing only the A350 to airlines. They will then convert some of the existing A330NEO orders into A350 orders. The remaining A330NEO orders will then get delivered and production will end in around 5 years time with a little over 200 aircraft produced.

The good news is the A350 at that point will be produced at more than 15 aircraft a month. The A350 will be producing more profit than any aircraft in Airbus history.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 2:31 am

RJMAZ wrote:
There is no chance the NEO will match the CEO.

There will be a point where Airbus can no longer justify producing both the A330NEO and A350 at around half of the optimal production rate instead of just running the A350 line at full rate.

In a few years time Airbus will start pushing only the A350 to airlines. They will then convert some of the existing A330NEO orders into A350 orders. The remaining A330NEO orders will then get delivered and production will end in around 5 years time with a little over 200 aircraft produced.

The good news is the A350 at that point will be produced at more than 15 aircraft a month. The A350 will be producing more profit than any aircraft in Airbus history.


The problem is that the A359 has too much range for airlines that don't need its range...only the capacity. The A339 is more ideal for missions 6-9 hours.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 2:32 am

acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?



The 789 is more versatile, has greater range, and better fuel burn. Other than that the 339 is a winner.
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Stitch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 2:46 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The problem is that the A359 has too much range for airlines that don't need its range...only the capacity. The A339 is more ideal for missions 6-9 hours.


Airlines are certainly not averse to using a more-capable airframe on less-challenging missions if the operating costs are similar. The A350-900 also has the advantage of being able to service the full range of missions an airline can operate.

For large airlines, optimizing model to mission is not so much of an issue since they have the network, but for smaller carriers, standardizing on a single frame that can handle all your missions can be more cost-effective.
 
gia777
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 3:06 am

The biggest problem I think, A330 size and A350 are similar.
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MrHMSH
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 4:06 am

Simple answer: no.

The A339 may or may not be successful, it has a fairly low bar to meet as it's effectively a stopgap, but then there are challenges that will hamper it, just like all airliners in the next few years. With the 789 and A359 available in large numbers, as well as used A333s being available at a time when fuel prices are low, I don't think it will sell anywhere near as many as the A330ceo. I think 300+ would be a good return.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 4:26 am

acavpics wrote:
I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

Wait until Boeing releases their touted 767X...then we might see what Airbus has in store for the A338. Particularly given the extended impact this pandemic will have on the industry.


oldJoe wrote:
I doubt that the A330neo would become as succesful as the -200s or -300s. Much depends for how much Airbus can offer the frame.

When Airbus finally gets confident that the A359 doesn't need protecting anymore is the time that airlines could get meaningful offers in that regard.


Stitch wrote:
The A330-300 especially benefitted from continuous increases in Operating Weights which allowed it to cover most routes being flown by 777-200ERs (even if it's raw range was lower) at fairly lower fuel burns. Add in the significant delays for the 787-9 and that gave it a very strong window of opportunity that airlines and Airbus made the most of.

In a way, we can say that the NEO is a victim of the CEO's success...having come at a time when many of the latter are still fairly young.

Stitch wrote:
So even if an A330-300 operator did not necessarily need the raw range of the A350-900 and 787-9, there wasn't really a penalty to having it so airlines started to favor those frames over an A330-900.

I'd say that the higher acquisition cost is a drawback, especially for smaller airlines.

Stitch wrote:
As such, I don't see how the A330neo could reach the popularity of their older sisters, but then it doesn't really have to be considering the low development and production costs. So it should still be a successful program for Airbus.

This is why it's a mystery that others keep insisting that Airbus could not compete on price.


RJMAZ wrote:
In a few years time Airbus will start pushing only the A350 to airlines. They will then convert some of the existing A330NEO orders into A350 orders. The remaining A330NEO orders will then get delivered and production will end in around 5 years time with a little over 200 aircraft produced.

You're forgetting the 788 and the mooted 767X...what will Airbus counter both with? 200 frames is not a bad run for such a modest investment...and what would convince airlines to upgrade to the A350 if they could ill afford it?
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 4:47 am

acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

It all depends how you define successful.
Will the A330neo sell as many frames as the A330ceo? Most likely no.
Will the A330neo remain in production as long as the A330ceo? Very doubtful.
Will the A330neo sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line? Most likely yes.

Only future will tell, but that's my guts' feeling.
 
Jetport
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 5:16 am

WayexTDI wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

It all depends how you define successful.
Will the A330neo sell as many frames as the A330ceo? Most likely no.
Will the A330neo remain in production as long as the A330ceo? Very doubtful.
Will the A330neo sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line? Most likely yes.

Only future will tell, but that's my guts' feeling.


If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.

Back to the thread question. There is zero chance the A330NEO is ever even close to as successful as the A330CEO. I think the most likely outcome is the A330 program is cancelled within a year. The 787 is superior to the A330 in almost every way for a very similar price. It is time for Airbus to pull the plug on the A330NEO and concentrate on the A350, which was wisely slotted between the 787 and 777.
 
Antarius
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 5:43 am

Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

It all depends how you define successful.
Will the A330neo sell as many frames as the A330ceo? Most likely no.
Will the A330neo remain in production as long as the A330ceo? Very doubtful.
Will the A330neo sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line? Most likely yes.

Only future will tell, but that's my guts' feeling.


If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.


Yes and no. Sometimes, you hedge as a defensive mechanism too. Boeing built the 747-8i while clearly knowing and arguing that the VLA quad era was dead. Same with the a339, having a comparable offering keeps a competitors pricing in check. If Airbus wasn't producing the 330neo, Boeing could jack the 789 price up as there is no other viable option in that space.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 5:44 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The problem is that the A359 has too much range for airlines that don't need its range...only the capacity. The A339 is more ideal for missions 6-9 hours.

The A350 is a game changer. That extra range comes with no efficiency disadvantages. The extra seats are just pure profit for the airline and the extra range means they can add additional cargo on any given route. Getting the production costs down is a priority and keeping production rate high is the only way to reach that goal.

Previous generation aircraft that came with extra range often came with many disadvantages with huge weight penalties. The A350-900 is by far the best single widebody model on the market. Its footprint and empty weight is within 2% of the A330-900. Yet the A350-900 can fit 10% more passengers or 20% more cargo weight. Airlines do not have to fly it at the maximum takeoff weight but the A350 could allow the airline to open new routes that would normally require a subfleet of ULR aircraft.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 6:10 am

Devilfish wrote:
You're forgetting the 788 and the mooted 767X...what will Airbus counter both with?

The 787-8 and 767X can never capture huge market share because neither of them have outstanding efficiency.

Firstly the 787-8 is overweight.

787-8 to 787-9 has a 8,900kg weight increase.
787-9 to 787-10 has a 6,650kg weight increase.

The difference between these two numbers means the 787-8 saves only 2,250kg for a massive 27,000kg reduction in MTOW/capability. If fully optimised for that MTOW the 787-8 should weigh only 110t.

The 787-9 weighs 8% more but it has 15% more cabin area for passengers and it can carry 25% more payload weight the same distance as the 787-8. Airlines will just purchase the larger 787-9.

Secondly the 767X will probably have the same overweight issue and the 7ab cabin is far from optimal for it to sell in huge numbers.

Once the A350NEO comes the range capability will move towards 9000nm. By this 2030 Airbus would consider the next cleansheet MOM.

200 frames is not a bad run for such a modest investment...and what would convince airlines to upgrade to the A350 if they could ill afford it?[/quote]
200 is ok. Providing the price is right all airlines could switch to the A350. Airbus would rather sell the A350 at cost price to those airlines than to keep the A330NEO rolling off the production line at only 1-2 aircraft per month.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 6:15 am

Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

It all depends how you define successful.
Will the A330neo sell as many frames as the A330ceo? Most likely no.
Will the A330neo remain in production as long as the A330ceo? Very doubtful.
Will the A330neo sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line? Most likely yes.

Only future will tell, but that's my guts' feeling.


If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.

Back to the thread question. There is zero chance the A330NEO is ever even close to as successful as the A330CEO. I think the most likely outcome is the A330 program is cancelled within a year. The 787 is superior to the A330 in almost every way for a very similar price. It is time for Airbus to pull the plug on the A330NEO and concentrate on the A350, which was wisely slotted between the 787 and 777.

OK, "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development cost, make some money as you wanted and keep Boeing in-line"; it was implied, but I should have added it.

As was said, sometimes, you create a product to increase competition and, at the same time, reduce your competitors ROI: it's done everyday in every industry, and is part of fair and sane competition. Of course, if that's your only product, then you are doomed in the long term; but, if it's a small part of your business, it makes sense.

Back to the thread question: again, how do you define the A330neo success? Only when that is answered can you answer the original question.
Example:
- was Concorde financially successful? No one in their right mind would say it was;
- was Concorde successful in creating a European Aerospace Industry? Yep, absolutely; and the British and French Governments got all they invested in Concorde (and then some) back with Airbus (which might have never existed without Concorde, not would CFM International have);
- so, was Concorde successful?
 
olle
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 6:55 am

Considering that the market for both 788 and 338 seems to be squeezed by the NB product special 321 the 339 will become the single model of the 330 family. I think it will be produced until the end of 2020s when the 787 and the 350 get new engines.

But many actors in the aviation industry will be squeezed with cash after this crisis, even have a near death experience in best case. I can imagine that the 339 will become a very economical option for the capabilities it gives. With oil around USD 35 what is the economical gain of flying a more expensive 787 compared to a low cost 339?
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 7:22 am

RJMAZ wrote:
.

Once the A350NEO comes the range capability will move towards 9000nm. By this 2030 Airbus would consider the next cleansheet MOM.

200 frames is not a bad run for such a modest investment...and what would convince airlines to upgrade to the A350 if they could ill afford it?

200 is ok. Providing the price is right all airlines could switch to the A350. Airbus would rather sell the A350 at cost price to those airlines than to keep the A330NEO rolling off the production line at only 1-2 aircraft per month.[/quote]

I think you’re right with this assumption. In the long term the Airbus product line might look something like A220 (100 300, 500, likely NEO) A320 successor (200-300 seats) and A350. The A320 successor will likely be an “MOM” aircraft, maybe not unlike the 752 and 753 in capacities and capabilities.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 8:09 am

olle wrote:
I can imagine that the 339 will become a very economical option for the capabilities it gives. With oil around USD 35 what is the economical gain of flying a more expensive 787 compared to a low cost 339?

With cheap oil airlines will just put off replacing their existing A330CEO's. This kills the primary market for the A330NEO. Due to the virus the normal replacement cycle has already been pushed 5 years further into the future. If there is a big reduction in travel movinf forward then the replacement cycle might move 10 years further forward.

Premium airlines with the funds will go with the A350 and 787. Their old aircraft get added to the global glut of good condition widebody aircraft.

The 777X is in a similar bad situation where airlines can just keep their 777W fleets for an additional 5-10 years. By this stage the A350NEO and 787-10NEO will be more than capable of replacing the 777W.

Emirates for example could simply keep their existing fleets with the low oil price. The 777X deliveries could be deferred dangerously far into the future.
 
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cougar15
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 8:39 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Simple answer: no.

The A339 may or may not be successful, it has a fairly low bar to meet as it's effectively a stopgap, but then there are challenges that will hamper it, just like all airliners in the next few years. With the 789 and A359 available in large numbers, as well as used A333s being available at a time when fuel prices are low, I don't think it will sell anywhere near as many as the A330ceo. I think 300+ would be a good return.


Lets revisit the topic in 5 years, the 33CEO took years to really become successful, then it took off like a rocket. The neo will be cheap and is very capable.
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US319
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 8:48 am

Only on Anet is the 330NEO bad bad bad and some rumored 767 upgrade the best thing since sliced bread. smh
 
vfw614
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:06 am

Depending on how you define "success", yes and no. Certainly not in the numbers game. But the real question is how much money it will earn Airbus with - currently - a quarter of the CEO orders but much much lower development costs. Another factor is how pricing of the A330NEO works based on competing products from Boeing and Airbus today compared to the product portfolio against which the A330CEO competed 10-20 years ago - any insights into those two aspects?
 
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flee
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:21 am

If Airbus can survive the Corvid-19 crisis, the A330neo will be OK. It is only a variant of the A330 family and the development and production costs are low. As such, it can tick along and be part of Airbus' widebody lineup. The 251t MTOW version will be a very capable aircraft. I don't think the A330neo will be the huge success that the A330ceo was but it should hold its own.
Last edited by flee on Mon May 11, 2020 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:22 am

I view the A330NEO as replacement for the A340-200 and -300. For many routes the A330NEO has to much range, the wings can carry to much fuel for the more efficient engines. I expect between 250-400 A330NEO deliveries, within the 2020-2030 period.
I also expect the A330NEO be replaced in Airbus product offering in 5 to 10 years. I think the A330 will get Ultra-fan engines before the A350 gets them. I think the intermediate RR Advance step will be skiped.
In terms of development cost between the A330NEO and A350-800 I think the ROI will turn out the A330NEO was the right decision.
Airbus frequently rolls out improvements for their planes. The MTOW bumps and the development of the NEO were improvements like this. Airbus had to wait for technologies to mature before they could develop the A330 successor. I expect this successor to still look similar to the A330s.
The A350XWB replaced the A340-500 and -600, the A350-800 should have replaced the A340-300,
but instead the A330-900 replaces it. The A330-900 also can replace the A330-300.
The A340-200 had low demand and is replaced by the A330-800.
Airbus still has to develop replacements for the A300-600R and the A330-200. the Airbus MOM
I think COVID-19 has caused increased demand for MOM aircraft (A300, A330-200 and 767).
Possibly Airbus brings the A330 FAL proces more in line with the other FAL processes. At the same time make the line suitable for two wing sizes. I think also Airbus D&S can benefit from a A300 successor.
So in short, No the A330NEO will only get half the orders/deliveries of the A330-200 or -300, because it's an intermediate solution. It keeps the A330/A340 FAL working and puts price pressure on the 787.
 
jodieellis
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:40 am

acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

The major A330 operators who don't order A330neo may have move to the A350's or other types instead. Anyway, EY has now retired it and replaced with 787 Dreamliners.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 10:42 am

No.
The reason is not "not good enough", but "it came too late".

Too late that the 787 was being to slay on the market.
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flee
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 11:01 am

Antaras wrote:
No.
The reason is not "not good enough", but "it came too late".

Too late that the 787 was being to slay on the market.

I am not so sure about that - the A330ceo sold very well even after the B787 was launched and continued to sell even after the first ones were delivered. One can say that Airbus maxed out the life of the A330ceo before they introduced the A330neo.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 11:11 am

No - simply because it faces much stiffer competition than the CEO. Not only from the 787 but also from the A359.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 11:35 am

The simple answer is indeed: no. With asking this question, you are missing the point of the A330NEO. It was not supposed to be as successful as the A330CEO was. It was meant as a cheap addition to the Airbus line-up and to keep Boeing honest with the pricing of the 787's. The cost for Airbus was very low, most of it was done by RR. So if it has a production run of 300 - 500, then it will be great, must be a great moneymaker for Airbus.
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 12:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
and to keep Boeing honest with the pricing of the 787's.

So it actually benefits 787 customers. :mrgreen:
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:02 pm

Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Many airlines seem to be going for 787s and A350's to replace A330ceo's. A lot of major A330 operators such CX, LH group, SQ, TK, EY, QR and many others don't seem to be interested in the A330neo. Is there hope for it becoming as successful as the -200's and -300's?

I'm pretty sure the -800 doesn't have too bright an outlook, but what about the -900?

It all depends how you define successful.
Will the A330neo sell as many frames as the A330ceo? Most likely no.
Will the A330neo remain in production as long as the A330ceo? Very doubtful.
Will the A330neo sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line? Most likely yes.

Only future will tell, but that's my guts' feeling.


If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.

Back to the thread question. There is zero chance the A330NEO is ever even close to as successful as the A330CEO. I think the most likely outcome is the A330 program is cancelled within a year. The 787 is superior to the A330 in almost every way for a very similar price. It is time for Airbus to pull the plug on the A330NEO and concentrate on the A350, which was wisely slotted between the 787 and 777.



Well that's not true, when you Operate in a duopoly you do take account of reducing supernormal profits in a competitor on certain lines which can be used to undercut you on different lines. Yeah ROCE matters but you need to optimize over the whole business line and not just one product. While taking account of the need to maintain engineering capabilities.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:27 pm

flee wrote:
Antaras wrote:
No.
The reason is not "not good enough", but "it came too late".

Too late that the 787 was being to slay on the market.

I am not so sure about that - the A330ceo sold very well even after the B787 was launched and continued to sell even after the first ones were delivered. One can say that Airbus maxed out the life of the A330ceo before they introduced the A330neo.

The main reason why the A330ceos sold was because of the 787 delays. And it cost Airbus dearly, as it is the main reason why nobody except those few customers have taken the neo. Airbus was practically trading away precious time to make a plane that could actually compete with the 787 by continuing greedily to sell the A330ceo. By the time the A330neo came in, it was too late, most customers who wanted a new plane would go for the 787 or would had gotten new dirt cheap A330ceos delivered by then. The A330neo will now play second fiddle to 787.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:46 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
flee wrote:
Antaras wrote:
No.
The reason is not "not good enough", but "it came too late".

Too late that the 787 was being to slay on the market.

I am not so sure about that - the A330ceo sold very well even after the B787 was launched and continued to sell even after the first ones were delivered. One can say that Airbus maxed out the life of the A330ceo before they introduced the A330neo.

The main reason why the A330ceos sold was because of the 787 delays. And it cost Airbus dearly, as it is the main reason why nobody except those few customers have taken the neo. Airbus was practically trading away precious time to make a plane that could actually compete with the 787 by continuing greedily to sell the A330ceo. By the time the A330neo came in, it was too late, most customers who wanted a new plane would go for the 787 or would had gotten new dirt cheap A330ceos delivered by then. The A330neo will now play second fiddle to 787.


I think it is more simple. There was massive growth in the Chinese market In the past 10 years. As demand went up, airlines upgauged. A330ceo success was based on the Chinese market where the A330 was a good choice for regional operations and available quickly.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 1:52 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
flee wrote:
Antaras wrote:
No.
The reason is not "not good enough", but "it came too late".

Too late that the 787 was being to slay on the market.

I am not so sure about that - the A330ceo sold very well even after the B787 was launched and continued to sell even after the first ones were delivered. One can say that Airbus maxed out the life of the A330ceo before they introduced the A330neo.

The main reason why the A330ceos sold was because of the 787 delays. And it cost Airbus dearly, as it is the main reason why nobody except those few customers have taken the neo. Airbus was practically trading away precious time to make a plane that could actually compete with the 787 by continuing greedily to sell the A330ceo. By the time the A330neo came in, it was too late, most customers who wanted a new plane would go for the 787 or would had gotten new dirt cheap A330ceos delivered by then. The A330neo will now play second fiddle to 787.
Airbus did not take the Dreamliner seriously at first, and they wanted to get a Neo to service. It was the airlines that told them that they needed a clean sheet design, and that led to the A350.

That said, they had done a lot of work, and letting that go to waste would be a poor business decision. The A330Neo is a cheaper aircraft that can compete with the 787 on some missions, can carry a similar amount of passengers, and has shorter waiting period. It is a jet that will sell once older CEO's begin to get retired, or you will see airlines flocking towards it the moment fuel prices really start ticking up again.

It is an jetliner that fills a market need for Airbus.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 2:27 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Well the A330ceo family booked 1,486 and delivered 1,451 in total
the A330neo has booked 333 and delivered 46.

If the A330 can be produced at 50 per year for 20 years + what has been delivered, the NEO will be as successful as the CEO.

However, the worldwide WB fleets were saturated by a few years ago, where orders were tailing off. Covid has impacted International travel more than Domestic, until all of the planes are back flying there will be little desire to order more planes beyond what is contracted for. It seems to be a huge task to sell 50 A330's a year, every years for 20 years. A good guess is there will be 400 to 500 more orders possibly.

Further complicating things is that Air Asia X has announced it is not receiving new planes puts its 78 in the questionable status.
Also, Cebu Pacific has 16 and Iran Air has 28, will these get delivered?

Also a lot of those orders are being held by lessors, yet we haven't heard many announcements of them signing up customers for those leases. I suspect the reason why we saw pre-covid production rate drops was that the lessors weren't able to get commitments.

RJMAZ wrote:
There is no chance the NEO will match the CEO.

There will be a point where Airbus can no longer justify producing both the A330NEO and A350 at around half of the optimal production rate instead of just running the A350 line at full rate.

In a few years time Airbus will start pushing only the A350 to airlines. They will then convert some of the existing A330NEO orders into A350 orders. The remaining A330NEO orders will then get delivered and production will end in around 5 years time with a little over 200 aircraft produced.

The good news is the A350 at that point will be produced at more than 15 aircraft a month. The A350 will be producing more profit than any aircraft in Airbus history.

Yes, A350 is an excellent aircraft and fills a well defined need. One would hope that Airbus learned a lot by making A330/A340/A380 and have made the A350 cheaper to produce in terms of man hours than all the earlier planes, so over time it should be very profitable.

Indeed low volume production lines are not very efficient. Boeing has gotten away with it for 767 since it has the huge tanker order and prospects to more. Boeing gambled that B748F would get more orders and seems to have lost that gamble. I think A330neo still has a few years to run to see if enough orders can be found to get the desired production volume, but the industry wide problems due to covid are a big set back for the program.

gia777 wrote:
The biggest problem I think, A330 size and A350 are similar.

Similar, yet distinct. A330 is 8 across in Y, A350 is 9 across in Y, and A350 has much better payload/range characteristics so can carry more cargo on many routes. A350 should also have better maintenance costs over its lifetime.

RJMAZ wrote:
With cheap oil airlines will just put off replacing their existing A330CEO's. This kills the primary market for the A330NEO. Due to the virus the normal replacement cycle has already been pushed 5 years further into the future. If there is a big reduction in travel movinf forward then the replacement cycle might move 10 years further forward.

Premium airlines with the funds will go with the A350 and 787. Their old aircraft get added to the global glut of good condition widebody aircraft.

The 777X is in a similar bad situation where airlines can just keep their 777W fleets for an additional 5-10 years. By this stage the A350NEO and 787-10NEO will be more than capable of replacing the 777W.

Emirates for example could simply keep their existing fleets with the low oil price. The 777X deliveries could be deferred dangerously far into the future.

AA is retiring A330 (and 767 too) while still taking 787s ( ref: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx ). I think fuel has been pretty low for the last several years yet old planes will still be aged out. I don't know that we'll see buyers for all the planes being sent to the desert, certainly not enough for new sales to stall. The concept in theory sounds good but haven't really seen it take off in practice. AC has taken in a few used A330s. People mention DL a lot but they haven't taken in a used wide body in a very long time.

I think you may be correct in some cases for 77X but I think we've already seen the first ANA and LH models being built and suspect their early frames are too far along in the production process to be canceled.

Dutchy wrote:
The simple answer is indeed: no. With asking this question, you are missing the point of the A330NEO. It was not supposed to be as successful as the A330CEO was. It was meant as a cheap addition to the Airbus line-up and to keep Boeing honest with the pricing of the 787's. The cost for Airbus was very low, most of it was done by RR. So if it has a production run of 300 - 500, then it will be great, must be a great moneymaker for Airbus.

The price competition works both ways, though. DL is the biggest blue chip A330neo customer but the deal was fought intensively by Boeing hoping to place 787s at Delta, and so I can imagine DL got an eye watering deal from Airbus for a large launch order under heavy pressure from Boeing. There can't be much profit in that order for Airbus.

We have seen A330 production rate cuts both pre-covid and during covid. I suspect Airbus was hoping on the DL order triggering other big orders but it has not happened so production volume is falling. A330neo has one of the US3, none of the EU3 and none of the ME3. I think it's safe to presume Airbus thought it would be doing better selling in to blue chip accounts.
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 2:39 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The A350 is a game changer. That extra range comes with no efficiency disadvantages. The extra seats are just pure profit for the airline and the extra range means they can add additional cargo on any given route. Getting the production costs down is a priority and keeping production rate high is the only way to reach that goal.

Previous generation aircraft that came with extra range often came with many disadvantages with huge weight penalties. The A350-900 is by far the best single widebody model on the market. Its footprint and empty weight is within 2% of the A330-900. Yet the A350-900 can fit 10% more passengers or 20% more cargo weight. Airlines do not have to fly it at the maximum takeoff weight but the A350 could allow the airline to open new routes that would normally require a subfleet of ULR aircraft.


But how do you explain that several carriers still opted for the A330NEO, including companies like Delta and Virgin which already had the A350 on order or in their fleet and which shouldn’t have had any issues just ordering more A350 if its higher acquisition costs were so clearly offset by being superior in every other aspect to the A330NEO.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 3:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The simple answer is indeed: no. With asking this question, you are missing the point of the A330NEO. It was not supposed to be as successful as the A330CEO was. It was meant as a cheap addition to the Airbus line-up and to keep Boeing honest with the pricing of the 787's. The cost for Airbus was very low, most of it was done by RR. So if it has a production run of 300 - 500, then it will be great, must be a great moneymaker for Airbus.

The price competition works both ways, though. DL is the biggest blue chip A330neo customer but the deal was fought intensively by Boeing hoping to place 787s at Delta, and so I can imagine DL got an eye watering deal from Airbus for a large launch order under heavy pressure from Boeing. There can't be much profit in that order for Airbus.

We have seen A330 production rate cuts both pre-covid and during covid. I suspect Airbus was hoping on the DL order triggering other big orders but it has not happened so production volume is falling. A330neo has one of the US3, none of the EU3 and none of the ME3. I think it's safe to presume Airbus thought it would be doing better selling in to blue chip accounts.


Sure, the point I was making that Boeing needed to recoup many billions in development money from the production run of the 787 and Airbus spend only a tiny bit of it. So denying Boeing to recoup their money is always a good thing, regardless of the Airbus A330NEO being a success or not. A bit the same with why Boeing developed the 748, it kept Airbus honest and they couldnot demand the premium that they might have wanted - if the market was there which they predicted.
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 4:44 pm

Another thing for the A339 is that there are a fair number of 240 or 242t A333s flying, primarily with Delta and airlines in China. Those won't need replacing for a long time.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 5:17 pm

The aerospace industry needs economy of scale. Everytime production doubles, cost goes does about 13% due to automation, vs. 10% in old school manufacturing.

For example, on the 787, Boeing is working to 3D print as much as possible. For earlier efforts, a cost savings of $3 million per aircraft. Of course Airbus knows how to 3D print. But it costs time and about $100 to $250 million of non reoccurring engineering to save $1 million per aircraft plus about $15 million in tooling per 200 aircraft produced per year. For mass produced aircraft like the A320 or 737, that is an easy business case.

Cost savings link:

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/11/1525 ... mliner-787

For the A350 and 787, there is a business case still. But the A330 is down to minimum production. The easier fixes have a Marginal business case. The harder to engineer fixes need a volume of 100+ per year to justify.

As switching to titanium also saves weight, these PiPs improve sales. So as time progresses, the only solution is volume production.

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Well the A330ceo family booked 1,486 and delivered 1,451 in total
the A330neo has booked 333 and delivered 46.

If the A330 can be produced at 50 per year for 20 years + what has been delivered, the NEO will be as successful as the CEO.

However, the worldwide WB fleets were saturated by a few years ago, where orders were tailing off. Covid has impacted International travel more than Domestic, until all of the planes are back flying there will be little desire to order more planes beyond what is contracted for. It seems to be a huge task to sell 50 A330's a year, every years for 20 years. A good guess is there will be 400 to 500 more orders possibly.

Further complicating things is that Air Asia X has announced it is not receiving new planes puts its 78 in the questionable status.
Also, Cebu Pacific has 16 and Iran Air has 28, will these get delivered?

Also a lot of those orders are being held by lessors, yet we haven't heard many announcements of them signing up customers for those leases. I suspect the reason why we saw pre-covid production rate drops was that the lessors weren't able to get commitments.

RJMAZ wrote:
There is no chance the NEO will match the CEO.

There will be a point where Airbus can no longer justify producing both the A330NEO and A350 at around half of the optimal production rate instead of just running the A350 line at full rate.

In a few years time Airbus will start pushing only the A350 to airlines. They will then convert some of the existing A330NEO orders into A350 orders. The remaining A330NEO orders will then get delivered and production will end in around 5 years time with a little over 200 aircraft produced.

The good news is the A350 at that point will be produced at more than 15 aircraft a month. The A350 will be producing more profit than any aircraft in Airbus history.

Yes, A350 is an excellent aircraft and fills a well defined need. One would hope that Airbus learned a lot by making A330/A340/A380 and have made the A350 cheaper to produce in terms of man hours than all the earlier planes, so over time it should be very profitable.

Indeed low volume production lines are not very efficient. Boeing has gotten away with it for 767 since it has the huge tanker order and prospects to more. Boeing gambled that B748F would get more orders and seems to have lost that gamble. I think A330neo still has a few years to run to see if enough orders can be found to get the desired production volume, but the industry wide problems due to covid are a big set back for the program.

gia777 wrote:
The biggest problem I think, A330 size and A350 are similar.

Similar, yet distinct. A330 is 8 across in Y, A350 is 9 across in Y, and A350 has much better payload/range characteristics so can carry more cargo on many routes. A350 should also have better maintenance costs over its lifetime.

RJMAZ wrote:
With cheap oil airlines will just put off replacing their existing A330CEO's. This kills the primary market for the A330NEO. Due to the virus the normal replacement cycle has already been pushed 5 years further into the future. If there is a big reduction in travel movinf forward then the replacement cycle might move 10 years further forward.

Premium airlines with the funds will go with the A350 and 787. Their old aircraft get added to the global glut of good condition widebody aircraft.

The 777X is in a similar bad situation where airlines can just keep their 777W fleets for an additional 5-10 years. By this stage the A350NEO and 787-10NEO will be more than capable of replacing the 777W.

Emirates for example could simply keep their existing fleets with the low oil price. The 777X deliveries could be deferred dangerously far into the future.

AA is retiring A330 (and 767 too) while still taking 787s ( ref: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx ). I think fuel has been pretty low for the last several years yet old planes will still be aged out. I don't know that we'll see buyers for all the planes being sent to the desert, certainly not enough for new sales to stall. The concept in theory sounds good but haven't really seen it take off in practice. AC has taken in a few used A330s. People mention DL a lot but they haven't taken in a used wide body in a very long time.

I think you may be correct in some cases for 77X but I think we've already seen the first ANA and LH models being built and suspect their early frames are too far along in the production process to be canceled.

Dutchy wrote:
The simple answer is indeed: no. With asking this question, you are missing the point of the A330NEO. It was not supposed to be as successful as the A330CEO was. It was meant as a cheap addition to the Airbus line-up and to keep Boeing honest with the pricing of the 787's. The cost for Airbus was very low, most of it was done by RR. So if it has a production run of 300 - 500, then it will be great, must be a great moneymaker for Airbus.

The price competition works both ways, though. DL is the biggest blue chip A330neo customer but the deal was fought intensively by Boeing hoping to place 787s at Delta, and so I can imagine DL got an eye watering deal from Airbus for a large launch order under heavy pressure from Boeing. There can't be much profit in that order for Airbus.

We have seen A330 production rate cuts both pre-covid and during covid. I suspect Airbus was hoping on the DL order triggering other big orders but it has not happened so production volume is falling. A330neo has one of the US3, none of the EU3 and none of the ME3. I think it's safe to presume Airbus thought it would be doing better selling in to blue chip accounts.

The heavy leasing company commitment is of concern.

AirAsia X is a wildcard. I expect a long Delta deferal too. Virgin Atlantic is also of concern.


The reality is, the business case changed. I suspect Airbus will get the A330NEO on life support in case of a U-recovery.

The reality is, with all the MTOW increase to 251t, If the A338F could share that MTOW, even with the 7.6 tons the NEO adds, another 18t for the freighter is enough to activate the center tank and add TATL range with full payload, something missing from the old A330F. This increases usable fuel by 6+ tons.

So a change of opinion on the A330F with a high MTOWA338. For the A330F takes up too much ramp space for short missions.

Here is an old thread. My last comment, I believe I was pessimistic on A338F empty weight. I believe, at maximum payload, the A338F would have 4500nm+ of range.

viewtopic.php?t=1400075

A 4500nm still air range allows BOM to CDG, FRA, but not LHR or MAD. I assume 3800nm with winds, diversions, etc.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3800nm%40bom

Playing with the gcmap, this brings East Coast China in range of an A338F from ME3 hubs. I believe that also increases the potential market.

For the A339 to sell again, some economy of scale is required that I can only foresee happening with a return of a freight version.

Pax sales will be poor for 4 or so years.

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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 7:05 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:

The problem is that the A359 has too much range for airlines that don't need its range...only the capacity. The A339 is more ideal for missions 6-9 hours.


The A330neo is probably also cheaper to buy/lease compared to the A350. For a small/medium sized company already operating the A330ceo probably makes a lot more sense to operate the A330neo then introduce a new type on its fleet. This appears to be reasoning for companies like TAP.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:39 pm

The A330neo will most likely be successful. It’s unlikely to be a smashing success and sell 1,000+ frames. It’s development costs were vastly less than the A350 and 787 because the A330neo is a simple derivative and not a clean sheet design therefore it doesn’t need to sell massive amounts to be “successful” When the world economy begins to improve and oil goes up I think you’ll find airlines order more to replace their A330ceos. In the meantime I see DL taking delivery of more to help with replacement of their 767-300ERs. I doubt the delivery schedule is going to be as ambitious as it was originally laid out though.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:40 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The simple answer is indeed: no. With asking this question, you are missing the point of the A330NEO. It was not supposed to be as successful as the A330CEO was. It was meant as a cheap addition to the Airbus line-up and to keep Boeing honest with the pricing of the 787's. The cost for Airbus was very low, most of it was done by RR. So if it has a production run of 300 - 500, then it will be great, must be a great moneymaker for Airbus.

The price competition works both ways, though. DL is the biggest blue chip A330neo customer but the deal was fought intensively by Boeing hoping to place 787s at Delta, and so I can imagine DL got an eye watering deal from Airbus for a large launch order under heavy pressure from Boeing. There can't be much profit in that order for Airbus.

We have seen A330 production rate cuts both pre-covid and during covid. I suspect Airbus was hoping on the DL order triggering other big orders but it has not happened so production volume is falling. A330neo has one of the US3, none of the EU3 and none of the ME3. I think it's safe to presume Airbus thought it would be doing better selling in to blue chip accounts.


Sure, the point I was making that Boeing needed to recoup many billions in development money from the production run of the 787 and Airbus spend only a tiny bit of it. So denying Boeing to recoup their money is always a good thing, regardless of the Airbus A330NEO being a success or not. A bit the same with why Boeing developed the 748, it kept Airbus honest and they couldnot demand the premium that they might have wanted - if the market was there which they predicted.


This is the worst duopoly in history because of low/no ROIC moves like the A330NEO. In a Duopoly both companies should be highly profitable. Boeing had a good run of profitability up until the MAX fiasco, but Airbus has never been as profitable as they should have been due to vanity projects like the A380 and projects "to keep Boeing honest" like the A330NEO. The initial idea for the A330NEO was that the 787 was too expensive to produce so the A330NEO would be enough cheaper that it could compete. Boeing reduced production costs further and faster than Airbus predicted, thus destroying the A330NEO's value proposition. It is time for Airbus to pull the plug and improve profitability on the A32XNEO and A350.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:55 pm

Jetport wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The price competition works both ways, though. DL is the biggest blue chip A330neo customer but the deal was fought intensively by Boeing hoping to place 787s at Delta, and so I can imagine DL got an eye watering deal from Airbus for a large launch order under heavy pressure from Boeing. There can't be much profit in that order for Airbus.

We have seen A330 production rate cuts both pre-covid and during covid. I suspect Airbus was hoping on the DL order triggering other big orders but it has not happened so production volume is falling. A330neo has one of the US3, none of the EU3 and none of the ME3. I think it's safe to presume Airbus thought it would be doing better selling in to blue chip accounts.


Sure, the point I was making that Boeing needed to recoup many billions in development money from the production run of the 787 and Airbus spend only a tiny bit of it. So denying Boeing to recoup their money is always a good thing, regardless of the Airbus A330NEO being a success or not. A bit the same with why Boeing developed the 748, it kept Airbus honest and they couldnot demand the premium that they might have wanted - if the market was there which they predicted.


This is the worst duopoly in history because of low/no ROIC moves like the A330NEO. In a Duopoly both companies should be highly profitable. Boeing had a good run of profitability up until the MAX fiasco, but Airbus has never been as profitable as they should have been due to vanity projects like the A380 and projects "to keep Boeing honest" like the A330NEO. The initial idea for the A330NEO was that the 787 was too expensive to produce so the A330NEO would be enough cheaper that it could compete. Boeing reduced production costs further and faster than Airbus predicted, thus destroying the A330NEO's value proposition. It is time for Airbus to pull the plug and improve profitability on the A32XNEO and A350.


If you have a look at Airbus' history and the source of their inefficiencies, you will find that it (used) be run for the party (the EU and before that those primary founding nations) and not for profits. Kind of like a Chinese SOE, maybe a little bit better :D .
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 9:58 pm

Jetport wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The price competition works both ways, though. DL is the biggest blue chip A330neo customer but the deal was fought intensively by Boeing hoping to place 787s at Delta, and so I can imagine DL got an eye watering deal from Airbus for a large launch order under heavy pressure from Boeing. There can't be much profit in that order for Airbus.

We have seen A330 production rate cuts both pre-covid and during covid. I suspect Airbus was hoping on the DL order triggering other big orders but it has not happened so production volume is falling. A330neo has one of the US3, none of the EU3 and none of the ME3. I think it's safe to presume Airbus thought it would be doing better selling in to blue chip accounts.


Sure, the point I was making that Boeing needed to recoup many billions in development money from the production run of the 787 and Airbus spend only a tiny bit of it. So denying Boeing to recoup their money is always a good thing, regardless of the Airbus A330NEO being a success or not. A bit the same with why Boeing developed the 748, it kept Airbus honest and they couldnot demand the premium that they might have wanted - if the market was there which they predicted.


This is the worst duopoly in history because of low/no ROIC moves like the A330NEO. In a Duopoly both companies should be highly profitable. Boeing had a good run of profitability up until the MAX fiasco, but Airbus has never been as profitable as they should have been due to vanity projects like the A380 and projects "to keep Boeing honest" like the A330NEO. The initial idea for the A330NEO was that the 787 was too expensive to produce so the A330NEO would be enough cheaper that it could compete. Boeing reduced production costs further and faster than Airbus predicted, thus destroying the A330NEO's value proposition. It is time for Airbus to pull the plug and improve profitability on the A32XNEO and A350.


Boeing did a good job driving the production cost down and probably faster than Airbus predicted. As for Boeing's profitability, don't forget that Boeing has a large defense division, that helps. Boeing also invested too little in new civil products and that hurts Boeing, so the profitability of ten years ago, has been at the expense of the profits now and in the next 5 years.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tvh
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:41 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 10:04 pm

They should launch a A330neo freighter, it could not be that difficult compared with a launch of a B787. because there are already A330 freigthers. Freighters are hot currently and I think that could last for a few years, After that the passenger markt will have recovered.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 351
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 10:12 pm

AFAIK the A330NEO has caused a real problem for Boeing. They need so sell 787's with small profit margins, thus Boeing can't earn back the huge differed production cost. Now they are even going to the point of needing only one of the two 787FALs.
Indeed Airbus initial A350 proposal was like the A330NEO but it involved more. Airlines pushed Airbus to develop the A350XWB. If this was a right decision in hindsight is an interesting discussion in my opinion. If Airbus would have known the A350 would be produced besides the A330NEO and the A380 went out of production wouldn't they have sized the A350 differently?

For now the A330NEO still generated some demand, the A330CEO didn't. The A330NEO together with the A321XLR have blocked Boeing launching the 797/MOM. I think there is going to be a lot of demand for A300/767 replacement aircraft.
I think Covid-19 will result in the phase-out of the A340-200 and -300. Possibly also the A340-500 and -600, but that's less likely.
Today I watched the Q&A video from AELS CEO Dirk-Jan van Heerden (Facebook AELS, in dutch) from April. The A340-200 and -300 has lot's of part commonality with the A330CEO, thus has high residual part value. (Also because A330CEO production is ending soon). The A340-500 and -600 have lots of specific parts, that's a pain.
According to Airbus April 2020 O&D file, there are still 127 flight worthy A340-200/-300's. Possibly by the end of this year there are less than 50 still in operation. If Lufthansa group retires their A340-200/-300, they lose 30 aircraft. Lufthansa group is also a huge operator of A330CEO, so I find it odd they haven't ordered A330NEO. Possibly they are waiting for something ...
Edit to add: what I've in mind also is required for the freighter. For now the A330P2F will gain intrest because reduced value of second hand A330CEO's. But an A330NEO+ freighter has different capability.
And Covid-19 might push Airbus to launch a A330NEO with code-D wing initially with less advanced engines.
 
x1234
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 10:19 pm

First of all I have to commend DL being the smartest airline of the US3. They put routes with planes to match their need/payload. Due to the 787 delays the A330 burned 10% less fuel than the 777 as it didn't have as much as empty dead weight but had less range. DL has their A330 for the South America & Europe + TLV routes where range is not needed. With the 787 and A350 being delivered DL wanted to spend less capital and thought the A330neo fits perfectly with their strategy. They have a strategic hub in SEA for Asia as its the closest point in the US to Asia allowing them to use 767's and now the A330neo. They are not in the business of ULH in Asia as their competitors serve them well (except for possible SEA-MNL I heard). Their 777's are used on HIGH CARGO routes with high yield with the needed payload/range like JNB, SYD & HND/PVG/ICN/PEK/PKX. DL with its KE North Asia hub serves every major city from as far west in India like BOM/DEL to DPS (Bali) in SE Asia.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 351
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 10:32 pm

I agree Delta was smart by ordering A330CEO and NEO. I think Airbus expected a lot more demand from Asia, more specifically China.
China and Delta also could really use a A300-600R replacement.
Another point. Instead of a A330NEO freighter Airbus could also help the development of the A340-600 LCF conversion. I think Airbus could please airlines by creating residual value for A340-500/-600 and Airbus military could improve the MRTT with it. In hindsight stupid it wasn't already developed, because an LCF A330 of A340 would have been perfect during this Covid-19 crisis. Now it will take at least a year before it can be offered.
Talking about MRTT, didn't the USAF find the A330MRTT to large? If Airbus could offer an A331MRTT (A300-600 replacement)?...

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