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ewt340
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 10:16 am

Jetport wrote:
I still think many folks on Anet don't fully understand the severity of the current COVID caused downturn and basic finance. Very short background:

• It does not matter how much an aircraft cost to develop in the past.
• The only thing that matters today is the cash cost to produce an aircraft at the planned rate and how much you can sell it for, essentially cash flow at planned post COVID rate reduction until you can ramp up again. Many programs from both A & B will have their margins reduced or even become negative due to production cuts. The only one I can't see any potential of becoming positive again after a recovery is the A330NEO. I really don't think the A330NEO was cash flow positive before COVID because of unexpected price pressure from the 787.
• The fact that the A330 was cheap to develop and the 787 was expensive to develop are totally irrelevant going forward, all that money is spent.
• The only reasons the A330NEO sold at all were lack of availability for 787’s and smoking hot deals from Airbus. The 787 is now available as fast as anyone wants one, so the only way Airbus can sell any future A330NEO’s is at very low or no margin.
• If you can buy them for essentially the same price with no wait time, why would anyone buy the inferior in almost every way A330NEO?

The only way the A330NEO is in production 2 years from now is if there is a much faster return to pre-COVID widebody demand faster than anyone, even optimists like me, expect.


Well since none of us really have access to all the actual deals both Boeing and Airbus had with every airlines that bought A330neo or B787. The question would be, is B787 really cheaper to purchase after all the discount compared to A330neo?

I mean think about it, it's a mid-size widebodies that are supposedly cheap to purchase and easy to fill. Supposedly, you see many airlines prefer to operate aircraft the size of both A330neo and B787 rather than A350 or B777X.

I'm sure Airbus wouldn't be stupid enough to sell A330neo if B787 is cheaper. Surely they would take a little bit of hit on their profit rather than losing the entire market share to Boeing.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 3:32 pm

We should not assume that purchase price determines, or even significantly influences, the selection of an A330neo over a 787 or vice-versa. These frames will in use for a decade or more so the actual NPV and ROI spreadsheets are probably pretty complicated with a large number of variables, of which purchase price is just one.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 4:19 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Well since none of us really have access to all the actual deals both Boeing and Airbus had with every airlines that bought A330neo or B787. The question would be, is B787 really cheaper to purchase after all the discount compared to A330neo?

I mean think about it, it's a mid-size widebodies that are supposedly cheap to purchase and easy to fill. Supposedly, you see many airlines prefer to operate aircraft the size of both A330neo and B787 rather than A350 or B777X.

I'm sure Airbus wouldn't be stupid enough to sell A330neo if B787 is cheaper. Surely they would take a little bit of hit on their profit rather than losing the entire market share to Boeing.

That logic works both ways. Airbus must have had to give DL an eye watering discount to get them to buy in to A330neo. It didn't seem to trigger follow on business. Maybe the VS order for 8 was in part due to their relationship with DL, but right now VS is really on the edge financially.

Stitch wrote:
We should not assume that purchase price determines, or even significantly influences, the selection of an A330neo over a 787 or vice-versa. These frames will in use for a decade or more so the actual NPV and ROI spreadsheets are probably pretty complicated with a large number of variables, of which purchase price is just one.

Sure, which is also not very supportive of A330neo. For customers it has one of the US3, none of the EU3 (!), none of the ME3, none of the CN3 (!). It suggests that the spreadsheets being made by the major airlines are not producing answers that favor the A330neo. The current climate is not going to encourage the financial community to gain exposure to a slow selling model.

I think the fact that EK had A330neo penciled in for a big purchase, but ended up buying A350 and 787 instead was pretty bad news for the program.

It seems the way forward for the program is to keep working the airlines that already have A330. The problem is that no one is buying now and the backlog isn't that big. It seems the move they need to make is to slow the production line down to a trickle like Boeing did for 747 and 767 and use the remaining civil and military orders to keep the line ticking over in hopes of an eventual uptick. It worked for 767, it did not work for 747.
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Devilfish
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 4:20 pm

[quote="lightsaber"]
Thank you so much for the extended lesson. Very enlightening. :old:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 5:36 pm

Stitch wrote:
We should not assume that purchase price determines, or even significantly influences, the selection of an A330neo over a 787 or vice-versa. These frames will in use for a decade or more so the actual NPV and ROI spreadsheets are probably pretty complicated with a large number of variables, of which purchase price is just one.

Revelation wrote:
It seems the way forward for the program is to keep working the airlines that already have A330. The problem is that no one is buying now and the backlog isn't that big.

Still, the enthusiast in me would like to see that "Love Bus" nose art on an actual A33N. I read that PR would be renegotiating their aircraft deals and leases in the face of this pandemic. Maybe Airbus could reuse the tactic which landed KU the A338...this time while offering the latter on a "buy one, get one free" basis, should UR abandon their order for two! :bigthumbsup:
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 6:21 pm

Jetport is right on.

If plane A and B have similar capabilities the value would be similar to the airline. So if B's cost of production is 5% less than A's. B can sell at A's cost and still make 5%, while A makes nothing on their plane. If B sells at cost, A loses 5% for every frame made to match. So B can discount the big order even to a slight loss, hoping to make margin on spares during the contract, fill their production line where cost cutting improvements can be done, reducing their cost.

It's a lot cheaper to build 100 planes for one customer than 100 planes to 20 customers.
 
ehaase
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 8:48 pm

Had Airbus not developed the 330NEO, wouldn't Delta and others have ordered 330-300 HGW's instead?
 
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Polot
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 9:05 pm

ehaase wrote:
Had Airbus not developed the 330NEO, wouldn't Delta and others have ordered 330-300 HGW's instead?

No, because eventually the A333’s fuel burn penalty was going to catch up to it and airlines would have moved on to the 787 or A350 as pricing and availability for those planes (critically for Airbus, the 787) improved.

Delta wasn’t going to build their future fleet around A333s.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 9:19 pm

ehaase wrote:
Had Airbus not developed the 330NEO, wouldn't Delta and others have ordered 330-300 HGW's instead?


Where they were appropriate, possibly. The A350-900 Regional would have been an option, as well.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 11:29 am

Revelation wrote:
Maybe the VS order for 8 was in part due to their relationship with DL, but right now VS is really on the edge financially.


We don't know what deal Airbus offered and what clinched it. I would hazard a guess one factor was that VS operate 14 A330ceo's, (now withdrawn) A340's and taking delivery of A350's, so not only is Airbus entrenched into VS it's also a compelling reason for VS to order neo's as the familiarity with the A330 is already there. Another factor is the neo being capable of servicing the whole of the VS network. From an Airbus perspective, I imagine the long relationship between the two companies combined with Boeing already having a foot in the door with the 787 were two other factors to offer a deal that preserves this relationship and keeps the 787 number from swelling further. Certainly if the goal was to simplify the fleet the A330neo would have lost out to the 787. I have no idea if the RR engine issues affecting the 787's at the time of the order being placed swayed their thinking, though I guess not given that the only option for the A330neo's is RR.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 6:45 pm

Back to question in the OP: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Of course it won't be anywhere as successful. The A330 entered service in 1994, one year before the 777. Both programs have been tremendously successful, but the A330 holds the record of delivered passenger aircraft. The 777 comes very close.

Will the warmed over A330neo be anywhere as successful? No, and it don't have to be. Will it be more successful than the same era and also warmed over 777X? It seems that won't be a problem. The outlook for the 777X looks very grim at the moment.
 
Jetport
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 6:57 pm

reidar76 wrote:
Back to question in the OP: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Of course it won't be anywhere as successful. The A330 entered service in 1994, one year before the 777. Both programs have been tremendously successful, but the A330 holds the record of delivered passenger aircraft. The 777 comes very close.

Will the warmed over A330neo be anywhere as successful? No, and it don't have to be. Will it be more successful than the same era and also warmed over 777X? It seems that won't be a problem. The outlook for the 777X looks very grim at the moment.


I disagree, the A330NEO order book is thin and of very low quality. Delta is the only blue chip airline that has any significant quantity on order. The 777X isn't even scheduled to enter service until next summer, and that could be delayed further due to market (Covid) or development issues. By the time the 777X enters service the market will likely have recovered significantly. How does the A330NEO even make it to next summer? I assume Airbus can shove the ones already being built down airlines throats, but who is going to take the rest of them? Even if Airbus quickly cuts A330NEO production to six a year like the 747, I don't think they can find a home for all of them even at that very low rate.
 
ewt340
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 8:45 pm

Jetport wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
Back to question in the OP: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Of course it won't be anywhere as successful. The A330 entered service in 1994, one year before the 777. Both programs have been tremendously successful, but the A330 holds the record of delivered passenger aircraft. The 777 comes very close.

Will the warmed over A330neo be anywhere as successful? No, and it don't have to be. Will it be more successful than the same era and also warmed over 777X? It seems that won't be a problem. The outlook for the 777X looks very grim at the moment.


I disagree, the A330NEO order book is thin and of very low quality. Delta is the only blue chip airline that has any significant quantity on order. The 777X isn't even scheduled to enter service until next summer, and that could be delayed further due to market (Covid) or development issues. By the time the 777X enters service the market will likely have recovered significantly. How does the A330NEO even make it to next summer? I assume Airbus can shove the ones already being built down airlines throats, but who is going to take the rest of them? Even if Airbus quickly cuts A330NEO production to six a year like the 747, I don't think they can find a home for all of them even at that very low rate.


Realistically speaking. B777X is the one who currently standing on thin layer of ice. First of all B777-8X isn't selling well. Too much range, too much fuel penalty, strong competition from A350-1000ULR.
B777-9X, great fuel burn, great range but it's too big compared to A350-1000 and B777-300ER. It's not easy to fill, and it's expensive to purchase.

Currently the only best seller between the model is B777-9X.
Many B777-300ER are extremely young and still extremely efficient. Even A350-1000 have hard time selling since many B777-300ER are still in the market.

Looking at the current and the predicted future trends even before the pandemic, airlines prefer smaller cheaper widebodies that's easy to fill all year-round compared to larger aircrafts like B777-9X.
After the pandemic, it would be an extremely slow run for any B777X orders. There has been rumors flying around for some time now, where major customers like Cathay or Emirates might convert some or even all their B777X orders to B787 and such. Other airlines like Etihad also cancel some of the orders for B777X.

A330-900neo on the other hand. Sits in the golden ratio territory for most airlines. 250-350 seats market for widebodies seems the most logical for many airlines before the pandemic.
With B787-9 backlog still pilling up every year. This give Airbus the advantages.
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 8:50 pm

Just a reminder that this is topic is about the A330neo and its successors. Please be sure to keep the discussion relevant to the topic.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
Jetport
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 9:09 pm

ewt340 wrote:

....................... A330-900neo on the other hand. Sits in the golden ratio territory for most airlines. 250-350 seats market for widebodies seems the most logical for many airlines before the pandemic.
With B787-9 backlog still pilling up every year. This give Airbus the advantages.


Have you been living in a cave the last 3 months? Any airline that wants a 787 can get one very quickly, there is a significant backlog, but there are many close in slots that Boeing would be happy to fill since many airlines want to delay deliveries. The availability argument you repeated for the A330NEO over the 787 is for all intents and purposes dead because of Covid. Unless Airbus is willing to price the A330NEO significantly below the 787, Boeing will win every competition going forward against the A330NEO since the 787 is a superior aircraft with immediate availability.
 
ewt340
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Wed May 20, 2020 10:26 pm

Jetport wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

....................... A330-900neo on the other hand. Sits in the golden ratio territory for most airlines. 250-350 seats market for widebodies seems the most logical for many airlines before the pandemic.
With B787-9 backlog still pilling up every year. This give Airbus the advantages.


Have you been living in a cave the last 3 months? Any airline that wants a 787 can get one very quickly, there is a significant backlog, but there are many close in slots that Boeing would be happy to fill since many airlines want to delay deliveries. The availability argument you repeated for the A330NEO over the 787 is for all intents and purposes dead because of Covid. Unless Airbus is willing to price the A330NEO significantly below the 787, Boeing will win every competition going forward against the A330NEO since the 787 is a superior aircraft with immediate availability.


Isn't that what Airbus has done since the launch of A330neo? advertising and selling A330neo with massive discount to airlines as an cheaper alternative to B787?
On the other hand, yes B787 are better on majority of the cases. Unless airlines like TAP, AirAsia, SAS, Cebu Pacific, etc. who doesn't operate any boeing aircraft and wanted to streamline their fleet. Or airlines who only fly shorter routes who doesn't need all that range or cargo capability on their operations like Garuda.

As my previous comment. What I said is that A330neo is in way better position compared to B777X. They have bigger chance on getting decent amount of orders in the long run.

Also, looking at the backlogs for A330neo. Their orders seems to be solid. Many orders from Leasing companies. Only 14 combined orders from smaller airlines which wouldn't really affected their backlogs if got cancelled. The other order comes from established airlines. The only red flags is AirAsia. But even after converting some of the orders, the backlogs still stand strong at 300+.
 
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flee
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Thu May 21, 2020 2:23 am

ewt340 wrote:
The only red flags is AirAsia. But even after converting some of the orders, the backlogs still stand strong at 300+.

Yes, those 78 orders depend on Airasia X surviving the Covid-19 crisis. If they survive, they should begin taking their deliveries maybe towards the end of 2021 - their procurement timing is seldom good, very often lacking aircraft when demand is good and having too many when demand tanks!

Yes, the B777X is now sitting in the same position as the A380 following Covid-19. The A339/A359/B789 are probably just the right size of aircraft for many airlines now.
 
xwb777
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Thu May 21, 2020 3:17 am

When Emirates initially order the A330NEO, Airbus was extremely happy that Emirates has endorsed the aircraft.
 
Sokes
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Thu May 21, 2020 4:16 am

Jetport wrote:
Any airline that wants a 787 can get one very quickly, there is a significant backlog, but there are many close in slots that Boeing would be happy to fill since many airlines want to delay deliveries. The availability argument you repeated for the A330NEO over the 787 is for all intents and purposes dead because of Covid. Unless Airbus is willing to price the A330NEO significantly below the 787, Boeing will win every competition going forward against the A330NEO since the 787 is a superior aircraft with immediate availability.

Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_78 ... deliveries

Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... deliveries

Both graphics are for orders/ deliveries incl. April 2020
From the order development of 2019/ 2020 you do seem to have a point. I missed that earlier.
So I shall go back to my statement from post 91:

Sokes wrote:
I assume Airbus intends the A330 Neo as a means to bridge the gap till a new, smaller engine for a new 52 m wing becomes available.

I made the statement. I retracted it. I hereby retract my retraction.

I believe 9 abreast is more economical for A330-900 capacity.
I know that's not supported by orders, but I still wonder if the A330-800 isn't a great plane for business heavy extreme long haul.

Basically it's the wrong engine for the plane, but nothing else was available.
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MrHMSH
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Thu May 21, 2020 4:41 am

Jetport wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
Back to question in the OP: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Of course it won't be anywhere as successful. The A330 entered service in 1994, one year before the 777. Both programs have been tremendously successful, but the A330 holds the record of delivered passenger aircraft. The 777 comes very close.

Will the warmed over A330neo be anywhere as successful? No, and it don't have to be. Will it be more successful than the same era and also warmed over 777X? It seems that won't be a problem. The outlook for the 777X looks very grim at the moment.


I disagree, the A330NEO order book is thin and of very low quality. Delta is the only blue chip airline that has any significant quantity on order. The 777X isn't even scheduled to enter service until next summer, and that could be delayed further due to market (Covid) or development issues. By the time the 777X enters service the market will likely have recovered significantly. How does the A330NEO even make it to next summer? I assume Airbus can shove the ones already being built down airlines throats, but who is going to take the rest of them? Even if Airbus quickly cuts A330NEO production to six a year like the 747, I don't think they can find a home for all of them even at that very low rate.


What advantages does a 'blue chip' airline really confer, and what makes an orderbook 'low quality'? I thought that the reason those airlines were so coveted was because they were stable and more likely to take delivery where non 'blue chip' airlines wouldn't be, but now that doesn't really mean much as those 'blue chip' airlines are in as much trouble as the non 'blue chips', very far from stable. The 777X may have more 'blue chip' customers, but that is a moot point if those airlines want to defer, reduce or cancel orders, and there have been noises that the ME3 (the most important customers by far) all want to reduce or defer, as do CX and LH. CX and NH aside the 777X has only found its feet at airlines that have ordered A380s, and having an orderbook with less variety when the 787 and A350 are much more compelling is not the best situation for the 777X to find themselves in.

I think it's very optimistic that the market will be anywhere near 2019 levels by 2021. A large, expensive aircraft is not going to be an easy asset to handle in an era of depressed demand and low fuel prices.

How does the A330neo survive until next summer? It's not expensive to produce and can chug along slowly until demand returns, if not then it will be an irritating loss, but not a tragedy as it was a relatively low-effort and low investment project.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Thu May 21, 2020 11:49 pm

Jetport wrote:
How does the A330NEO even make it to next summer?

With great difficulty I presume...just like every one else.

Jetport wrote:
I assume Airbus can shove the ones already being built down airlines throats, but who is going to take the rest of them?

Now, that is rather extreme. A spot of arm-twisting coupled with a handsome discount should do it.

Jetport wrote:
Even if Airbus quickly cuts A330NEO production to six a year like the 747, I don't think they can find a home for all of them even at that very low rate.

Airbus already cut its monthly aircraft production rates by a third...and is not planning to review the lowered production levels again before midyear.....

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 18.article

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 25.article
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RJMAZ
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Fri May 22, 2020 2:10 am

MrHMSH wrote:
What advantages does a 'blue chip' airline really confer, and what makes an orderbook 'low quality'?

Blue chip airlines would be more likely to get finance or government assistance during a crisis. Blue chip airlines will be less likely to defer delivery or defer fewer deliveries. Blue chip airlines would be less likely to go bankrupt which result in orders being cancelled.

A blue chip airline often operates multiple widebody types. Changing an order to a different type made by the same manufacturer is then more likely to happen which helps the manufacturer.

A blue chip airline would also have more realistic growth expectations. AirAsia X planned to more than triple its widebody fleet from 21 A330CEO to 78 A330NEO.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Fri May 22, 2020 2:47 am

RJMAZ wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
What advantages does a 'blue chip' airline really confer, and what makes an orderbook 'low quality'?

Blue chip airlines would be more likely to get finance or government assistance during a crisis. Blue chip airlines will be less likely to defer delivery or defer fewer deliveries. Blue chip airlines would be less likely to go bankrupt which result in orders being cancelled.

A blue chip airline often operates multiple widebody types. Changing an order to a different type made by the same manufacturer is then more likely to happen which helps the manufacturer.

A blue chip airline would also have more realistic growth expectations. AirAsia X planned to more than triple its widebody fleet from 21 A330CEO to 78 A330NEO.


Essentially then, every advantage of being a 'blue chip' airlines evaporates during a crisis as damaging as this one? After all, so many airlines, even state-backed carriers are deferring, downsizing and going bankrupt, or else are very close to doing so/rumoured to be doing so. The point about the 777X having more 'blue chip' customers is a moot point if those airlines are in trouble or want to downsize, and as I said, there's been a lot of noise about the most important 777X customers downsizing and/or deferring their orders, because they're in financial trouble and don't want to be laden with many 777Xs they can't fill.

I doubt AirAsia X would have operated 78 A330neos at a time, just as you never see airlines like Ini\dGo, AirAsia, VietJet and such operate all the aircraft they have on order at one time.
 
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flee
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Fri May 22, 2020 3:58 am

MrHMSH wrote:
I doubt AirAsia X would have operated 78 A330neos at a time, just as you never see airlines like Ini\dGo, AirAsia, VietJet and such operate all the aircraft they have on order at one time.

Yes, part of their strategy is to "trade" in aircraft. By putting in big orders, they get a better discount from the OEMs. Later on, they can do sale and leasebacks (where the selling price of the aircraft is current market price) or even outright sale to dispose of the aircraft. There are capital gains to be made.

I don't think Airasia X would operate all 78 aircraft simultaneously as the delivery stream is over at least 8 years. However, I believe that some of the aircraft will be allocated to yet to be established X carriers (e.g. Philippines, India, Japan).
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Fri May 22, 2020 4:30 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Essentially then, every advantage of being a 'blue chip' airlines evaporates during a crisis as damaging as this one?

After all, so many airlines, even state-backed carriers are deferring, downsizing and going bankrupt, or else are very close to doing so/rumoured to be doing so.

British Airways just had a 787-10 delivered an hour ago. They also had a A350-1000 delivered yesterday. That is better than going off rumours
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Fri May 22, 2020 5:23 am

RJMAZ wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Essentially then, every advantage of being a 'blue chip' airlines evaporates during a crisis as damaging as this one?

After all, so many airlines, even state-backed carriers are deferring, downsizing and going bankrupt, or else are very close to doing so/rumoured to be doing so.

British Airways just had a 787-10 delivered an hour ago. They also had a A350-1000 delivered yesterday. That is better than going off rumours


One airline took delivery of two aircraft that were in the late stages of production? Well that conclusively proves that 'blue chip' airlines are all a-ok. We'll see how we do going forward, but in the next 1-2 years I really doubt that many 'blue chip' airlines will fare better than some of those other 'weak' airlines. I imagine TG would have been considered 'blue chip', but they're not in great health at all.
 
trex8
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 3:24 pm

AWST
https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/ ... 0420_0.pdf

pg 22
"The A330 will remain a profitable program, says Faury, but the A350 will face "more headwinds," having just moved into profitability in 2019."
This is after the announcement that A330ceo/neo rate reduced to 2/month and A350 to 6 (and 40 for A320 family).
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 4:04 pm

I don't see how any widebody program other than the 767 can remain profitable at Rate 2, but if Airbus can do it with the A330neo, good for them.
 
workhorse
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 7:17 pm

Stitch wrote:
I don't see how any widebody program other than the 767 can remain profitable at Rate 2, but if Airbus can do it with the A330neo, good for them.


What is specificity of the 767 program that makes it profitable at low rates?

(that's not a nasty or rhetoric question, I'm genuinely interested)
 
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 8:12 pm

workhorse wrote:
What is specificity of the 767 program that makes it profitable at low rates?


When Boeing designed the new 767 FAL, they incorporated lean manufacturing techniques and new tooling which significantly reduced the unit costs and amount of time needed to produce a 767. The FAL is designed around Rate 2, but can be profitable at Rate 1.5. It is currently operating at Rate 3 (which it was designed to support), which it achieved earlier this year.
 
9Patch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 8:16 pm

Stitch wrote:
workhorse wrote:
What is specificity of the 767 program that makes it profitable at low rates?


When Boeing designed the new 767 FAL, they incorporated lean manufacturing techniques and new tooling which significantly reduced the unit costs and amount of time needed to produce a 767. The FAL is designed around Rate 2, but can be profitable at Rate 1.5. It is currently operating at Rate 3 (which it was designed to support), which it achieved earlier this year.

Any plans to expand lean manufacturing techniques to other lines?
 
workhorse
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 8:34 pm

Stitch wrote:
workhorse wrote:
What is specificity of the 767 program that makes it profitable at low rates?


When Boeing designed the new 767 FAL, they incorporated lean manufacturing techniques and new tooling which significantly reduced the unit costs and amount of time needed to produce a 767. The FAL is designed around Rate 2, but can be profitable at Rate 1.5. It is currently operating at Rate 3 (which it was designed to support), which it achieved earlier this year.


Oh, thanks! I wasn't aware there was a new FAL. Now I understand much better all the 767neo talk.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 8:41 pm

cougar15 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Simple answer: no.

The A339 may or may not be successful, it has a fairly low bar to meet as it's effectively a stopgap, but then there are challenges that will hamper it, just like all airliners in the next few years. With the 789 and A359 available in large numbers, as well as used A333s being available at a time when fuel prices are low, I don't think it will sell anywhere near as many as the A330ceo. I think 300+ would be a good return.


Lets revisit the topic in 5 years, the 33CEO took years to really become successful, then it took off like a rocket. The neo will be cheap and is very capable.


This is the best answer. The A339 is a good tool that was easy for Airbus to design and easy to build.

It is a mistake to write off the A339. It could last 25 years in production. The Boeing 767 is not the "best" platform, but it is a reliable tool in an active mid-market segment. So it lives on, and on, and on.

ewt340 wrote:
Looking at the current and the predicted future trends even before the pandemic, airlines prefer smaller cheaper widebodies that's easy to fill all year-round compared to larger aircrafts like B777-9X.
After the pandemic, it would be an extremely slow run for any B777X orders. There has been rumors flying around for some time now, where major customers like Cathay or Emirates might convert some or even all their B777X orders to B787 and such. Other airlines like Etihad also cancel some of the orders for B777X.

A330-900neo on the other hand. Sits in the golden ratio territory for most airlines. 250-350 seats market for widebodies seems the most logical for many airlines before the pandemic.
With B787-9 backlog still pilling up every year. This give Airbus the advantages.


Yes. The A330-900neo can keep networks alive at a lower cost than 777X.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 8:46 pm

workhorse wrote:
Stitch wrote:
workhorse wrote:
What is specificity of the 767 program that makes it profitable at low rates?


When Boeing designed the new 767 FAL, they incorporated lean manufacturing techniques and new tooling which significantly reduced the unit costs and amount of time needed to produce a 767. The FAL is designed around Rate 2, but can be profitable at Rate 1.5. It is currently operating at Rate 3 (which it was designed to support), which it achieved earlier this year.


Oh, thanks! I wasn't aware there was a new FAL. Now I understand much better all the 767neo talk.


They did a conversion that reduced the area of the line similar to the 777 moving line but with the 767 they don't move, the equipment and jigs move to the plane and change out.

The profitable at Rate 1.5 is building the KC-46 which buys 15 to 20 planes a year for many a year. Pretty easy to secure an additional 20 freighter orders per year as the fixed cost of the line are covered by the KC-46.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 23, 2020 8:52 pm

9Patch wrote:
Any plans to expand lean manufacturing techniques to other lines?


The 737, 777 and 787 already incorporate lean manufacturing (the person who oversaw the changes to the 767 line came from the 777 line where she oversaw that line incorporate lean manufacturing).

The 747-8 was supposed to transition to a moving line, but that never happened (I am guessing the production rate never justified the move) and now with the program winding down, there would be no point. The 747 program does incorporate some lean manufacturing processes, however, which has greatly reduced the time of certain major assembly tasks.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 24, 2020 11:53 pm

flee wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
The only red flags is AirAsia. But even after converting some of the orders, the backlogs still stand strong at 300+.

Yes, those 78 orders depend on Airasia X surviving the Covid-19 crisis. If they survive, they should begin taking their deliveries maybe towards the end of 2021 - their procurement timing is seldom good, very often lacking aircraft when demand is good and having too many when demand tanks!

Yes, the B777X is now sitting in the same position as the A380 following Covid-19. The A339/A359/B789 are probably just the right size of aircraft for many airlines now.

this comment is rather short sighted. the 777x and the 380 are not in the same position, no where near (for the millionth time). The 380 tried and failed, wonderful piece of engineering regardless. The 777x still in development, i believe if it meets its efficiency goals will do well, i see it as an updated 77W which is actually what it is, not an a380 part 2.

moreover, a lot of 77Ws are still quite young. the 777X fate depends on if Boeing is able to meet and exceed their efficiency goals.

With the 330neo, i feel it will do very well. a lot of 330s are still young and i think it will be very well received in the asian market when we really get to the middle of the decade when the 330ceo's start really age
 
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flee
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 2:35 am

Opus99 wrote:
flee wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
The only red flags is AirAsia. But even after converting some of the orders, the backlogs still stand strong at 300+.

Yes, those 78 orders depend on Airasia X surviving the Covid-19 crisis. If they survive, they should begin taking their deliveries maybe towards the end of 2021 - their procurement timing is seldom good, very often lacking aircraft when demand is good and having too many when demand tanks!

Yes, the B777X is now sitting in the same position as the A380 following Covid-19. The A339/A359/B789 are probably just the right size of aircraft for many airlines now.

this comment is rather short sighted. the 777x and the 380 are not in the same position, no where near (for the millionth time). The 380 tried and failed, wonderful piece of engineering regardless. The 777x still in development, i believe if it meets its efficiency goals will do well, i see it as an updated 77W which is actually what it is, not an a380 part 2.

moreover, a lot of 77Ws are still quite young. the 777X fate depends on if Boeing is able to meet and exceed their efficiency goals.

With the 330neo, i feel it will do very well. a lot of 330s are still young and i think it will be very well received in the asian market when we really get to the middle of the decade when the 330ceo's start really age

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused demand to tank and even with the limited flights that are operating, many routes see planes flying almost empty. Some experts have predicted that it may take as long as 4-5 years before demand is restored to 2019 levels. Until a vaccine is available, many people will avoid flying. If you are an airline that is flying the B777-9, do you think you will you be able to get a reasonable load on your flights? Will you be able to make a profit on these flights?
 
Opus99
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 3:02 am

flee wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
flee wrote:
Yes, those 78 orders depend on Airasia X surviving the Covid-19 crisis. If they survive, they should begin taking their deliveries maybe towards the end of 2021 - their procurement timing is seldom good, very often lacking aircraft when demand is good and having too many when demand tanks!

Yes, the B777X is now sitting in the same position as the A380 following Covid-19. The A339/A359/B789 are probably just the right size of aircraft for many airlines now.

this comment is rather short sighted. the 777x and the 380 are not in the same position, no where near (for the millionth time). The 380 tried and failed, wonderful piece of engineering regardless. The 777x still in development, i believe if it meets its efficiency goals will do well, i see it as an updated 77W which is actually what it is, not an a380 part 2.

moreover, a lot of 77Ws are still quite young. the 777X fate depends on if Boeing is able to meet and exceed their efficiency goals.

With the 330neo, i feel it will do very well. a lot of 330s are still young and i think it will be very well received in the asian market when we really get to the middle of the decade when the 330ceo's start really age

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused demand to tank and even with the limited flights that are operating, many routes see planes flying almost empty. Some experts have predicted that it may take as long as 4-5 years before demand is restored to 2019 levels. Until a vaccine is available, many people will avoid flying. If you are an airline that is flying the B777-9, do you think you will you be able to get a reasonable load on your flights? Will you be able to make a profit on these flights?

Use Asia to answer that question
 
ewt340
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 12:39 pm

Opus99 wrote:
flee wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
this comment is rather short sighted. the 777x and the 380 are not in the same position, no where near (for the millionth time). The 380 tried and failed, wonderful piece of engineering regardless. The 777x still in development, i believe if it meets its efficiency goals will do well, i see it as an updated 77W which is actually what it is, not an a380 part 2.

moreover, a lot of 77Ws are still quite young. the 777X fate depends on if Boeing is able to meet and exceed their efficiency goals.

With the 330neo, i feel it will do very well. a lot of 330s are still young and i think it will be very well received in the asian market when we really get to the middle of the decade when the 330ceo's start really age

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused demand to tank and even with the limited flights that are operating, many routes see planes flying almost empty. Some experts have predicted that it may take as long as 4-5 years before demand is restored to 2019 levels. Until a vaccine is available, many people will avoid flying. If you are an airline that is flying the B777-9, do you think you will you be able to get a reasonable load on your flights? Will you be able to make a profit on these flights?

Use Asia to answer that question


No it doesn't make sense at all to think that utilization of B777-9 in "Asia" is a good thing. Small number in Japan and mainly in Dubai. Other than that, it's a big no-no.
Last edited by ewt340 on Mon May 25, 2020 12:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 12:42 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
flee wrote:
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused demand to tank and even with the limited flights that are operating, many routes see planes flying almost empty. Some experts have predicted that it may take as long as 4-5 years before demand is restored to 2019 levels. Until a vaccine is available, many people will avoid flying. If you are an airline that is flying the B777-9, do you think you will you be able to get a reasonable load on your flights? Will you be able to make a profit on these flights?

Use Asia to answer that question


No it doesn't make sense at all to think that utilization of B777-9 in "Asia" is a good thing. Small number in Japan and mainly in Dubai. Other than that, it's a big no-no.

You asked do you think you’d be able to get reasonable load flights. So I said use Asia to answer that question.
 
ewt340
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 12:44 pm

Opus99 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Use Asia to answer that question


No it doesn't make sense at all to think that utilization of B777-9 in "Asia" is a good thing. Small number in Japan and mainly in Dubai. Other than that, it's a big no-no.

You asked do you think you’d be able to get reasonable load flights. So I said use Asia to answer that question.


That's not me. And you need to explain your answer as well.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 12:46 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

No it doesn't make sense at all to think that utilization of B777-9 in "Asia" is a good thing. Small number in Japan and mainly in Dubai. Other than that, it's a big no-no.

You asked do you think you’d be able to get reasonable load flights. So I said use Asia to answer that question.


That's not me. And you need to explain your answer as well.

Apologies thought that was you. My answer had nothing to do with the 777-9 it was moreso the recovery figures that they are seeing in Asia of about 60%. It’s nowhere near pre covid but it’s encouraging
 
NLINK
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 1:20 pm

So if Air Asia X cancels or indefinitely delays the the 330neo order this effectively leaves TAP with 6, Garuda Indonesia with 11, Delta with 32 and Virgin Atlantic if they survive with 14 which I have doubts on if they will plus a couple odd ball ones. That is around 49 orders not including Virgin Atlantics 14. That leaves around 63 outstanding orders that are pretty legitimate plus the oddball ones for maybe 80. I kinda have doubts from a financial perspective if we will see Delta take delivery of all they have on order now and getting stuck with a oddball fleet gets expensive like the 767-400ER did to DL and CO-UA. Aviation in the future could be kinda boring if we are down to a couple wide bodies in total, the 350 and 787 in a few years.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 3:04 pm

NLINK wrote:
So if Air Asia X cancels or indefinitely delays the the 330neo order this effectively leaves TAP with 6, Garuda Indonesia with 11, Delta with 32 and Virgin Atlantic if they survive with 14 which I have doubts on if they will plus a couple odd ball ones. That is around 49 orders not including Virgin Atlantics 14. That leaves around 63 outstanding orders that are pretty legitimate plus the oddball ones for maybe 80. I kinda have doubts from a financial perspective if we will see Delta take delivery of all they have on order now and getting stuck with a oddball fleet gets expensive like the 767-400ER did to DL and CO-UA. Aviation in the future could be kinda boring if we are down to a couple wide bodies in total, the 350 and 787 in a few years.

The entire fate of the A330NEO rests with AirAsiaX and Delta. Now is the time for Boeing to try and steal away (again) AirAsiaX. I'm not certain it would happen, but one less widebody would help Boeing.

Because Delta will opperate the A333 for a while longer, the expense isn't too bad on the A339.

However, the poor financial outlook for VS, KE, and LATAM change the competitive landscape.

Lightsaber
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oldJoe
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 3:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
NLINK wrote:
So if Air Asia X cancels or indefinitely delays the the 330neo order this effectively leaves TAP with 6, Garuda Indonesia with 11, Delta with 32 and Virgin Atlantic if they survive with 14 which I have doubts on if they will plus a couple odd ball ones. That is around 49 orders not including Virgin Atlantics 14. That leaves around 63 outstanding orders that are pretty legitimate plus the oddball ones for maybe 80. I kinda have doubts from a financial perspective if we will see Delta take delivery of all they have on order now and getting stuck with a oddball fleet gets expensive like the 767-400ER did to DL and CO-UA. Aviation in the future could be kinda boring if we are down to a couple wide bodies in total, the 350 and 787 in a few years.

The entire fate of the A330NEO rests with AirAsiaX and Delta. Now is the time for Boeing to try and steal away (again) AirAsiaX. I'm not certain it would happen, but one less widebody would help Boeing.

Because Delta will opperate the A333 for a while longer, the expense isn't too bad on the A339.

However, the poor financial outlook for VS, KE, and LATAM change the competitive landscape.

Lightsaber

Everything ( maybe not all ) depends on Chinese airlines. I can see also some European airlines in the future wich didn`t consider the a/c yet
 
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seahawk
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 3:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
NLINK wrote:
So if Air Asia X cancels or indefinitely delays the the 330neo order this effectively leaves TAP with 6, Garuda Indonesia with 11, Delta with 32 and Virgin Atlantic if they survive with 14 which I have doubts on if they will plus a couple odd ball ones. That is around 49 orders not including Virgin Atlantics 14. That leaves around 63 outstanding orders that are pretty legitimate plus the oddball ones for maybe 80. I kinda have doubts from a financial perspective if we will see Delta take delivery of all they have on order now and getting stuck with a oddball fleet gets expensive like the 767-400ER did to DL and CO-UA. Aviation in the future could be kinda boring if we are down to a couple wide bodies in total, the 350 and 787 in a few years.

The entire fate of the A330NEO rests with AirAsiaX and Delta. Now is the time for Boeing to try and steal away (again) AirAsiaX. I'm not certain it would happen, but one less widebody would help Boeing.

Because Delta will opperate the A333 for a while longer, the expense isn't too bad on the A339.

However, the poor financial outlook for VS, KE, and LATAM change the competitive landscape.

Lightsaber


I disagree, the A330NEO is perfect as it is for Boeing. Not strong enough to steal many deals, but still strong enough for Airbus not doing a new design.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 3:47 pm

lightsaber wrote:
NLINK wrote:
So if Air Asia X cancels or indefinitely delays the the 330neo order this effectively leaves TAP with 6, Garuda Indonesia with 11, Delta with 32 and Virgin Atlantic if they survive with 14 which I have doubts on if they will plus a couple odd ball ones. That is around 49 orders not including Virgin Atlantics 14. That leaves around 63 outstanding orders that are pretty legitimate plus the oddball ones for maybe 80. I kinda have doubts from a financial perspective if we will see Delta take delivery of all they have on order now and getting stuck with a oddball fleet gets expensive like the 767-400ER did to DL and CO-UA. Aviation in the future could be kinda boring if we are down to a couple wide bodies in total, the 350 and 787 in a few years.

The entire fate of the A330NEO rests with AirAsiaX and Delta. Now is the time for Boeing to try and steal away (again) AirAsiaX. I'm not certain it would happen, but one less widebody would help Boeing.

Because Delta will opperate the A333 for a while longer, the expense isn't too bad on the A339.

However, the poor financial outlook for VS, KE, and LATAM change the competitive landscape.

Lightsaber


Is the A330neo that much of an oddball fleet? It's still an A330, of which DL has plenty, and even allowing for uncertain orders it has a lot more than the 38 orders the 764 got. Whether they take delivery of all they have on order? Hard to answer, but I'm sure if things get better in 2-3 years they'll have few problems operating them.

I'd add orders from Cebu Pacific, Lion Air and Citilink, the latter two already operate the plane and Cebu Pacific are fairly solid (as much as any airline could be in their situation!). The A330neo isn't in a fantastic place, but I think it will pick up lots of small orders. They might not be glamorous or high profile, but they add up.

An order from China is probably the make or break for the program. I could see them ordering it at least for political purposes, but it wouldn't be a bad choice in the slightest even if it's more decided by whichever of the EU or the USA is scratching China's back the best at a certain time.
 
ehaase
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 5:15 pm

I can't see Delta needing 39 359's. Maybe Delta will reduce the 359 order to 12 more for a total of 25, then add 20 or so more 339's to the current 37 in its fleet or on order.
 
trex8
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 5:50 pm

CI still have 23 A333s. The oldest owned frames (first delivered 2004) will have their 3rd heavy check coming up in the next 2-3 years. The youngest are due for return to lessors early/mid this decade, last 2026. Taiwan CAA will not allow any plane on the register over 26 years age since beginning this year.
Pre A359 they had 24 A333s and 6 A343s. They have 14 A359s now. They could certainly replace some of the A333s with more A359s but an order for some A330neos would seem a good bet.
Post covid they may not need one for one replacements but the A333s cannot go on for ever. In fact they might even need an A330-800. TransAsia even ordered four A338s before they went bust. Taiwanese carriers need the range, and if they want smaller than a 300 seater its either an A338 or a 788. CI had a sizeable A306 fleet before the A330s with @250 seats. For CI it will make no sense to get a new type by buying 787s when they are so heavily invested in A330 and A350 already. A321XLRs will not work transpac and with 1/3 of their revenue from cargo a small widebody makes sense.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 25, 2020 6:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Now is the time for Boeing to try and steal away (again) AirAsiaX. I'm not certain it would happen, but one less widebody would help Boeing.

So, is that an acknowledgement of the "fiscalizing" role at least, that the A330neo plays vis a vis the 787 :?:
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