Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, hOMSaR

 
bkmbr
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:27 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 11, 2020 10:47 pm

tvh wrote:
They should launch a A330neo freighter, it could not be that difficult compared with a launch of a B787. because there are already A330 freigthers. Freighters are hot currently and I think that could last for a few years, After that the passenger markt will have recovered.


Several commercial passenger planes are being deactivated because of this pandemic will enter the second-hand aircraft market ready to be converted to freighters by the various companies around the world capable of doing this for a fraction of the cost of a brand new unit so I don't know if there would be real demand for new freighters in a scenario where used aircraft are being sold for a fraction they would cost a year ago.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 1:51 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The 787-8 and 767X can never capture huge market share because neither of them have outstanding efficiency.

How many 788s and 767s are flying now? Heck, Boeing just sold a bunch of -8s to AA...not to mention the 762 tanker order in production for the Air Force. It was not very long ago that the Dreamliner was being hyped as the best thing since sliced bread...hindsight is indeed 20/20. Rattling off those spec details does not invalidate the sales success of both models...the new iteration is not meant to gain stellar results. But as a stopgap to prevent the competition from cornering the market - until Boeing could get its act together to finally come up with a bleeding edge NMA, or whatever it may be called on their next press release.

RJMAZ wrote:
200 is ok. Providing the price is right all airlines could switch to the A350. Airbus would rather sell the A350 at cost price to those airlines than to keep the A330NEO rolling off the production line at only 1-2 aircraft per month.

So you're advocating that Airbus discount the A350 to the bone just to enable airlines to switch to it, rather than cut the A330N price for the latter to attain economy of scale in production? That is a very a risky proposition which could irreparably harm their flagship product down the road when the market recovers. As you said, the XWB is a "game changer" and it does not need extraordinary measures to sell. Meanwhile, the A330N line is already there and chugging along and only needs a boost to be more profitable.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 1:59 am

olle wrote:
But many actors in the aviation industry will be squeezed with cash after this crisis, even have a near death experience in best case. I can imagine that the 339 will become a very economical option for the capabilities it gives. With oil around USD 35 what is the economical gain of flying a more expensive 787 compared to a low cost 339?

Thats a fallacy there, the 787 per unit production costs has come down a lot, to the point that there is not much of a cost advantage for the A330neo vs 787, the 787 has purportedly beaten the A330neo in this aspect in some bids.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:01 am

tvh wrote:
They should launch a A330neo freighter, it could not be that difficult compared with a launch of a B787. because there are already A330 freigthers. Freighters are hot currently and I think that could last for a few years, After that the passenger markt will have recovered.

The Airbus main deck cross sections are considered sub-optimal for cargo in a world dominated by Boeing freighters.
 
ehaase
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:06 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:11 am

If Airbus hadn't developed the 330NEO, I wonder if Delta would have just ordered more 330-300 HGW.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:17 am

bkmbr wrote:
tvh wrote:
They should launch a A330neo freighter, it could not be that difficult compared with a launch of a B787. because there are already A330 freigthers. Freighters are hot currently and I think that could last for a few years, After that the passenger markt will have recovered.


Several commercial passenger planes are being deactivated because of this pandemic will enter the second-hand aircraft market ready to be converted to freighters by the various companies around the world capable of doing this for a fraction of the cost of a brand new unit so I don't know if there would be real demand for new freighters in a scenario where used aircraft are being sold for a fraction they would cost a year ago.

Yes, the flood of available 767s will be welcomed by cargo carriers.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2579
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:52 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
olle wrote:
But many actors in the aviation industry will be squeezed with cash after this crisis, even have a near death experience in best case. I can imagine that the 339 will become a very economical option for the capabilities it gives. With oil around USD 35 what is the economical gain of flying a more expensive 787 compared to a low cost 339?

Thats a fallacy there, the 787 per unit production costs has come down a lot, to the point that there is not much of a cost advantage for the A330neo vs 787, the 787 has purportedly beaten the A330neo in this aspect in some bids.


I thought that the 787's price was lowered for some strategic details, there wasn't anything concrete to suggest the 787's production costs had been lowered to rival the A330's. HA definitely got a good deal (they were the only A338 customer at the time), but I'm not sure many deals after that were given terms as good.
 
bkmbr
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:27 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:58 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
olle wrote:
But many actors in the aviation industry will be squeezed with cash after this crisis, even have a near death experience in best case. I can imagine that the 339 will become a very economical option for the capabilities it gives. With oil around USD 35 what is the economical gain of flying a more expensive 787 compared to a low cost 339?

Thats a fallacy there, the 787 per unit production costs has come down a lot, to the point that there is not much of a cost advantage for the A330neo vs 787, the 787 has purportedly beaten the A330neo in this aspect in some bids.


Production costs may have come down but maintenance cost not necessary had. The A350 and the 787 are a new type of aircraft that demands specialized technical teams to deal with things like the fuselage in composite materials and a complete teams recertification and training cycle. For a small/medium size company, specially if they are already operating the A330ceo the A330neo could be a more interesting and economical proposition then retraining you entire pilots and maintenance crews from scratch to operate a completely new model of aircraft in the fleet, and with the fuel in an all time low probably used A330ceo, especially those produced later in the production line, will be even more desirable for some of those small/medium companies. If the company is willing to start now a long haul operation from scratch I agree that the 787 and the A350 in fact they become much better options, but if the intention is to maintain (replacing older units) or have a small growth of an operation that already exists, the A330 can be an more economical proposition, especially for companies in China and Latin America (as is the case of Azul for example that is starting to receive A330neo that will operate alongside their A330ceo). If the price is right the A330neo could be a budget friendly option for second tier companies worldwide, but is true, the A330neo never surpass the number of sales of the A330ceo except if a very exceptional conditions occurs such as the A350 ends up being grounded for a long term for some unknown technical reason.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 3:04 am

MrHMSH wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
olle wrote:
But many actors in the aviation industry will be squeezed with cash after this crisis, even have a near death experience in best case. I can imagine that the 339 will become a very economical option for the capabilities it gives. With oil around USD 35 what is the economical gain of flying a more expensive 787 compared to a low cost 339?

Thats a fallacy there, the 787 per unit production costs has come down a lot, to the point that there is not much of a cost advantage for the A330neo vs 787, the 787 has purportedly beaten the A330neo in this aspect in some bids.


I thought that the 787's price was lowered for some strategic details, there wasn't anything concrete to suggest the 787's production costs had been lowered to rival the A330's. HA definitely got a good deal (they were the only A338 customer at the time), but I'm not sure many deals after that were given terms as good.



According to Leeham the production cost of a 789 is around 85-90 million per plane. HA reportedly paid 115-120 million per plane. I have no idea what Airbus costs are to produce an A330 Neo, but due to the much lower production rate versus the 787 it is probably close.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
Max Q
Posts: 8129
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 3:16 am

Never really understood the purpose of the NEO


Seems to overlap the 350 niche pointlessly
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
trex8
Posts: 5522
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 3:26 am

Max Q wrote:
Never really understood the purpose of the NEO


Seems to overlap the 350 niche pointlessly

It was supposed to be a low cost and quick way for Airbus to come up with something to steal some orders from the 787 when the 787 deliveries were late and the ceo was beating the 787 in sales the early part of this decade. This was A350 Mk 1 v2.0. They may still be ok on the low cost, quick didnt happen as quickly as planned so it missed a time niche.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4758
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 4:06 am

Antarius wrote:
Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
It all depends how you define successful.
Will the A330neo sell as many frames as the A330ceo? Most likely no.
Will the A330neo remain in production as long as the A330ceo? Very doubtful.
Will the A330neo sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line? Most likely yes.

Only future will tell, but that's my guts' feeling.


If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.


Yes and no. Sometimes, you hedge as a defensive mechanism too. Boeing built the 747-8i while clearly knowing and arguing that the VLA quad era was dead. Same with the a339, having a comparable offering keeps a competitors pricing in check. If Airbus wasn't producing the 330neo, Boeing could jack the 789 price up as there is no other viable option in that space.

But the question is? Does Airbus need to Keep Boeing's prices in check? What kind of business Strategy is that? you don't play to Tie, You play to WIN!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19320
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 4:56 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Jetport wrote:

If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.


Yes and no. Sometimes, you hedge as a defensive mechanism too. Boeing built the 747-8i while clearly knowing and arguing that the VLA quad era was dead. Same with the a339, having a comparable offering keeps a competitors pricing in check. If Airbus wasn't producing the 330neo, Boeing could jack the 789 price up as there is no other viable option in that space.

But the question is? Does Airbus need to Keep Boeing's prices in check? What kind of business Strategy is that? you don't play to Tie, You play to WIN!

The A350 is for the win. The A330NEO was the product to discount, to invalidate the 788 and take enough 789 sales so that Airbus didn't lose customers for the A350. Notice DL (and others) have split A350/A330NEO fleets. By building on the A330 and an already mass produced 787 engine (T7000 is only a minor modification of the T1000 from a production standpoint) time to market allowed utilizing existing resources.

Now, the plan was to just keep producing A330s, but there was no way the A330NEO would take the market from the 787. The goal was to fill in gaps in the product line to sell A350s and keep customers who needed a less than $135million aircraft. The A350 is great, but it is a pricey aircraft to manufacture and thus has a higher sales price.

So Airbus didn't go for the win in the $100 to $110 million category. They went for a foot in the door to sell where airlines, such as DL, buy the A330NEO for routes that do not require 787 or A350 capability (TATL) but still buy A350 for those routes that need that expensive capability (TPAC).

The 737NG wasn't a plane 'for the win,' but it made a fortune. The A320NEO wasn't a plane for the win. That was what Boeing was going for initially (pre-MAX), but having something good enough early was the win for the A320NEO.

The A330NEO assumed Boeing would still have the production cost issues on the 787 they did until about 2015. Well... Not the case today.

But take a trip back to 2015 and the analysis on the 787 cash burn wasn't friendly to Boeing:
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/ ... pay-o.aspx

That was turned around quickly and substantially. In 2019 the 787 ramped up to 14/month. Costs dropped. Then demand fell out and now we're in Corvid19 land.

If the A330NEO had been two years earlier, it would have really hurt the 787. Or put another way, if Boeing hadn't turned around the 787 program, the A330NEO/A350 combination might have been enough to break the bank at Boeing even without the MAX issues. It was a good try on Airbus' part to cripple Boeing. It didn't work, but Boeing did much with the MAX, but that quickly gets off topic.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Antarius
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 5:08 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Jetport wrote:

If all the A330NEO does is "sell in enough quantities to amortize the development costs and keep Boeing in-line" it will be a disaster. You don't invest in an airframe to break even and reduce your competitors profits, that is really bad business. You invest in an airframe to make an acceptable ROIC (Return On Invested Capital, usually a minimum of 13%), I know Boeing takes this approach and I think Airbus usually does too.


Yes and no. Sometimes, you hedge as a defensive mechanism too. Boeing built the 747-8i while clearly knowing and arguing that the VLA quad era was dead. Same with the a339, having a comparable offering keeps a competitors pricing in check. If Airbus wasn't producing the 330neo, Boeing could jack the 789 price up as there is no other viable option in that space.

But the question is? Does Airbus need to Keep Boeing's prices in check? What kind of business Strategy is that? you don't play to Tie, You play to WIN!


Lightsaber summed it up well. But, to add, playing to win doesn't mean you have to match up apples-to-apples on every product. You play offense on some and defense on others.

Airbus is playing offense with the a350 and defense with the a339. Boeing played offense with the 787 and defense with the 748i. Keep pricing down for the deals the competition is going to win anyways and win the ones you can with the better product offering in the category you can.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1267
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 5:22 am

lightsaber wrote:
If the A330NEO had been two years earlier, it would have really hurt the 787. Or put another way, if Boeing hadn't turned around the 787 program, the A330NEO/A350 combination might have been enough to break the bank at Boeing even without the MAX issues. It was a good try on Airbus' part to cripple Boeing. It didn't work, but Boeing did much with the MAX, but that quickly gets off topic.

Lightsaber

The A330neo was the A350-800 substitute - since Airbus decided not to proceed with the A350-800, it needed something to take on the A358's role.

It was not possible for the A330neo to arrive two years earlier as RR did not have the Trent 7000 until development of the Trent 1000 TEN was completed. They had to watch the programme costs carefully and could not afford concurrent development.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 5:49 am

flee wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If the A330NEO had been two years earlier, it would have really hurt the 787. Or put another way, if Boeing hadn't turned around the 787 program, the A330NEO/A350 combination might have been enough to break the bank at Boeing even without the MAX issues. It was a good try on Airbus' part to cripple Boeing. It didn't work, but Boeing did much with the MAX, but that quickly gets off topic.

Lightsaber

The A330neo was the A350-800 substitute - since Airbus decided not to proceed with the A350-800, it needed something to take on the A358's role.

It was not possible for the A330neo to arrive two years earlier as RR did not have the Trent 7000 until development of the Trent 1000 TEN was completed. They had to watch the programme costs carefully and could not afford concurrent development.

At that point in time, they didn't have to wait for the TEN to arrive. Without hindsight (note, this is an important disclaimer), they could had went both ways. One was to go for an RR engine based on the then "normal" Trent 1000 (we know how it will end), the other was to go for the GENx. But no, Airbus decided to be greedy and waste precious time on the older -300. Now, some airlines who could had bought the more expensive neo already have almost new ceos on their hands, they have no reason to buy the neo anymore. That is how the A330 went from a cashcow to a program whose survival is threatened from time to time by its biggest customer.
 
tvh
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:41 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 7:51 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
bkmbr wrote:
tvh wrote:
They should launch a A330neo freighter, it could not be that difficult compared with a launch of a B787. because there are already A330 freigthers. Freighters are hot currently and I think that could last for a few years, After that the passenger markt will have recovered.


Several commercial passenger planes are being deactivated because of this pandemic will enter the second-hand aircraft market ready to be converted to freighters by the various companies around the world capable of doing this for a fraction of the cost of a brand new unit so I don't know if there would be real demand for new freighters in a scenario where used aircraft are being sold for a fraction they would cost a year ago.

Yes, the flood of available 767s will be welcomed by cargo carriers.


Good for short range, but they will not have the range of the A330neo
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1267
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 8:18 am

tvh wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
bkmbr wrote:
Several commercial passenger planes are being deactivated because of this pandemic will enter the second-hand aircraft market ready to be converted to freighters by the various companies around the world capable of doing this for a fraction of the cost of a brand new unit so I don't know if there would be real demand for new freighters in a scenario where used aircraft are being sold for a fraction they would cost a year ago.

Yes, the flood of available 767s will be welcomed by cargo carriers.

Good for short range, but they will not have the range of the A330neo

There will be a huge A330ceo feedstock for conversion to freighters and Airbus knows that new build A330neo freighters will be a hard sell. It may be more feasible to offer a trade in deal whereby a customer orders the A330neo and is able to return the A330ceo that they have for a reasonable price. Airbus can then convert these A330ceos into freighters.
 
User avatar
AECM
Posts: 295
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 8:34 am

The A330P2F was possible without the need to raise the nose section like in the A332F, so if there is an opportunity and interest i think Airbus can think about a A332F interior floor and reinforcements in a A338 with up to 251 ton MTOW (the current A330 Freighter has a 233 ton MTOW). This possible new version could carry the same Max Payload of the current A332F (70 ton) with a greater range.

A330P2F = 233 ton MTOW, Max Payload 60 ton, range up to 4250 nm
A332F = 233 ton MTOW, Max Payload 70 ton, range up to 4000 nm
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 9:04 am

Devilfish wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 787-8 and 767X can never capture huge market share because neither of them have outstanding efficiency.

How many 788s and 767s are flying now?

I should have been more clear. The 787-8 and 767X will never capture large PASSENGER orders into the FUTURE. The 787-8 stopped selling as soon as the 787-9 became available. The USAF market is already captured by Boeing.

Over the next decade Boeing might sell a total of maybe 300 787-8 and 767X passenger aircraft. That is less than 3 aircraft per month. Is it really worth keeping the A330NEO just to keep Boeing honest on such a small number of passenger orders?

Devilfish wrote:
So you're advocating that Airbus discount the A350 to the bone just to enable airlines to switch to it, rather than cut the A330N price for the latter to attain economy of scale in production?

Yes those deals will be confidential and will not harm the future price of the A350.

If we exclude VLA there are 1000+ A330CEO and 1000+ 777 in service to be replaced. Now the way I look at the airlines have three options for replacements.
1) A350 if they need the range/capacity
2) 787 if they need mainly efficiency.
3) Buy/lease late production 777/A330 aircraft from airlines that picked option 1 or 2.

Option 3 airlines would have been interested in the A330NEO but low fuel costs means used aircraft win. Airlines wanting to keep their A330 pilot pool can replace their 2000 production year A330CEO's with ones built in 2015. These 2015 production models will probably have a higher MTOW and an engine PIP combined with cheap fuel they are a perfect upgrade.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 10:58 am

flee wrote:
tvh wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Yes, the flood of available 767s will be welcomed by cargo carriers.

Good for short range, but they will not have the range of the A330neo

There will be a huge A330ceo feedstock for conversion to freighters and Airbus knows that new build A330neo freighters will be a hard sell. It may be more feasible to offer a trade in deal whereby a customer orders the A330neo and is able to return the A330ceo that they have for a reasonable price. Airbus can then convert these A330ceos into freighters.

The problem is, the A330s are going to face competition from the more favoured and right sized 767s. Even till now the A330P2F program has gotten around or less than 20 firm orders despite a growing number of frames available. The payload range of the A330 in cargo config does not help too. There is going to be a flood of good flyable 767s that will keep MROs performing conversions busy. And with more planes means more ramp space needed, the A330 takes up more ramp space as compared to the 767s.

If Boeing offers the 787BCF, which will most likely offer a better payload range that will actually make a difference vs 767, the A330 will be sandwiched in between once more. Plus, the 787 wiring is designed for a cargo door provision from the start which would make conversions easier.

Then you have the fuselage width and contour, as of now, pallets are stacked based on the common types of cargo planes, which are increasing towards an almost full Boeing fleet with the retirements of A300 and A310. So, either the pallets will have to be restacked or the plane will fly with an inefficient use of space. There are also reduced main deck heights on Airbus types vs equivalent Boeing models which may limit the types of cargo that can be carried. This is more of a consequence of Boeing typically planning for an eventual factory built cargo version or conversion for all of its types, something that pax complaining about 1 inch difference in seat width won't understand - future proofing.

Lots of factors working against the A330 as a cargo plane.
 
bkmbr
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:27 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 12:19 pm

tvh wrote:
Good for short range, but they will not have the range of the A330neo


Range is not as critical for freight operations as is for passengers. The FedEx 777 have the range to go from China to the USA's west coast nonstop but they stop at anchorage anyway.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 12:37 pm

bkmbr wrote:
tvh wrote:
Good for short range, but they will not have the range of the A330neo


Range is not as critical for freight operations as is for passengers. The FedEx 777 have the range to go from China to the USA's west coast nonstop but they stop at anchorage anyway.

Yes, that is the reason why the A330P2F is in a hard spot. It barely has the range to make it TATL, having a payload range just slightly better than the 767, and yet it can't do some of the routine 747/777 medium haul Asia-ANC-Lower 48 runs that is the bread and butter of a lot of carriers. And it takes more ramp space and is heavier than the 767.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5577
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 12:56 pm

Most of the discussion is ignoring the elephant in the room, and that is the severe drop in demand for air travel due to COVID-19 that is likely to last for some time. A side effect of this is that, because of reduced demand, oil prices are likely to remain low for some time as well. These two factors mean that demand for shiny new more efficient airliners is going to be nonexistent for some time to come. Most airliners on order now will be deferred, some indefinitely. Some airlines are likely to disappear, leading to a glut of relatively new used planes. In this situation both Airbus and Boeing are going to be in extreme difficulty, and are going to look at any means of saving money. And that will put marginal programs at risk. The most marginal program at Airbus is certainly the A330neo, and my guess is that it is more likely than not going to receive the ax. At Boeing it is the 778.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:41 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
I should have been more clear. The 787-8 and 767X will never capture large PASSENGER orders into the FUTURE.

I guess you missed this.....
Devilfish wrote:
...the new iteration is not meant to gain stellar results. But as a stopgap to prevent the competition from cornering the market


RJMAZ wrote:
Over the next decade Boeing might sell a total of maybe 300 787-8 and 767X passenger aircraft. That is less than 3 aircraft per month. Is it really worth keeping the A330NEO just to keep Boeing honest on such a small number of passenger orders?

Absolutely...considering that number will probably be the total new-build demand (if at all) in that segment for sometime to come, Airbus would fight tooth and nail for each order...their survival might depend on it.

RJMAZ wrote:
Yes those deals will be confidential and will not harm the future price of the A350.

The airline industry is a pretty tight-knit group so tidbits are likely to creep around. Top airline managers wouldn't be worth their salt if they couldn't smell juicy deals a mile out.

RJMAZ wrote:
Option 3 airlines would have been interested in the A330NEO but low fuel costs means used aircraft win. Airlines wanting to keep their A330 pilot pool can replace their 2000 production year A330CEO's with ones built in 2015. These 2015 production models will probably have a higher MTOW and an engine PIP combined with cheap fuel they are a perfect upgrade.

All the more reason why Airbus should not make their premier product a "sacrificial lamb" :!:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10357
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 2:55 pm

Devilfish wrote:

RJMAZ wrote:
Option 3 airlines would have been interested in the A330NEO but low fuel costs means used aircraft win. Airlines wanting to keep their A330 pilot pool can replace their 2000 production year A330CEO's with ones built in 2015. These 2015 production models will probably have a higher MTOW and an engine PIP combined with cheap fuel they are a perfect upgrade.

All the more reason why Airbus should not make their premier product a "sacrificial lamb" :!:


Is the A330 the premier product, or is that now the A350 ;) ?


It’s a tight rope that Airbus has to walk, at least until/if they can get the A350 to a point that the A330 can never touch it (eg the market heavily favoring A350-1000s over new A359s). The A330neo primarily competes against the 787, but it is capable enough to steal A359 sales. Just because Airbus did not screw up the A350 budget as much as Boeing did with the 787 doesn’t mean they don’t want a ROI from that program. Price A330 too low and airlines will gladly sacrifice A350 capabilities. Make A330neo too capable and why would airlines want more expensive A359? You don’t want to flush your multi billion dollar A350 investment down the toilet.

You are not going to see massive A330neo payload/range growth like you saw with the A330ceo. Both because there is less low hanging fruit and also to protect A359.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26946
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 3:12 pm

flee wrote:
The A330neo was the A350-800 substitute - since Airbus decided not to proceed with the A350-800, it needed something to take on the A358's role.


That's not a bad analogy. Nobody really needed the A350-800's range (it was just a by-product of being a shrink) so the A330-900 offers similar capacity with a range most operators can work with.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 4:06 pm

Polot wrote:
Is the A330 the premier product, or is that now the A350 ;) ?

I consider the A350 as Airbus' "premier product".

Polot wrote:
It’s a tight rope that Airbus has to walk, at least until/if they can get the A350 to a point that the A330 can never touch it (eg the market heavily favoring A350-1000s over new A359s). The A330neo primarily competes against the 787, but it is capable enough to steal A359 sales. Just because Airbus did not screw up the A350 budget as much as Boeing did with the 787 doesn’t mean they don’t want a ROI from that program.

Agreed...that's why I'm against discounting the A359 too much. For the time being, I think the A35K would just ride it out, given the economic storm COVID-19 brought about.

Polot wrote:
Price A330 too low and airlines will gladly sacrifice A350 capabilities. Make A330neo too capable and why would airlines want more expensive A359? You don’t want to flush your multi billion dollar A350 investment down the toilet.

You are not going to see massive A330neo payload/range growth like you saw with the A330ceo. Both because there is less low hanging fruit and also to protect A359.

It's a Catch 22 dilemma...Airbus must find that delicate balance between the two. To that end, I posted in another thread that Airbus should keep the A338 pax version at 242T MTOW to avoid encroaching into A359 turf (A339 range being well below A359's) while pricing the NEO just low enough to attract more buyers who may otherwise jump to the 787.

Image
https://airbus-h.assetsadobe2.com/is/im ... 1&qlt=85,0
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19320
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Tue May 12, 2020 5:12 pm

flee wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If the A330NEO had been two years earlier, it would have really hurt the 787. Or put another way, if Boeing hadn't turned around the 787 program, the A330NEO/A350 combination might have been enough to break the bank at Boeing even without the MAX issues. It was a good try on Airbus' part to cripple Boeing. It didn't work, but Boeing did much with the MAX, but that quickly gets off topic.

Lightsaber

The A330neo was the A350-800 substitute - since Airbus decided not to proceed with the A350-800, it needed something to take on the A358's role.

It was not possible for the A330neo to arrive two years earlier as RR did not have the Trent 7000 until development of the Trent 1000 TEN was completed. They had to watch the programme costs carefully and could not afford concurrent development.

I agree it couldn't have been earlier. My point is Boeing dramatically turned around the 787 which damaged the A330NEO business case.

When launched, the A330NEO had a better business case than with the revitalized and significantly PiP'd 787.

I didn't expect the 789 production costs to be reduced as much as they have. That and the 787-10 in service seems to be doing better than promise.

So I agree time cannot be turned back, the A330NEO could have really impaled Boeing if it arrived earlier.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 1:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
So I agree time cannot be turned back, the A330NEO could have really impaled Boeing if it arrived earlier.

Ironically, COVID-19 could either be the NEO's savior or the final nail in its coffin. For the time being, this seems to be the most plane that many airlines would need..... :airplane: .....

from the A330neo production thread:
Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYEKz0HX0AA ... name=large


RR would just have to debug the T7K more while Airbus needs to pare its production costs further and price the NEOs more competitively...et voila...they're in business! :cheerful:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 2:36 pm

Devilfish wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So I agree time cannot be turned back, the A330NEO could have really impaled Boeing if it arrived earlier.

Ironically, COVID-19 could either be the NEO's savior or the final nail in its coffin. For the time being, this seems to be the most plane that many airlines would need..... :airplane: .....

from the A330neo production thread:
Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYEKz0HX0AA ... name=large


RR would just have to debug the T7K more while Airbus needs to pare its production costs further and price the NEOs more competitively...et voila...they're in business! :cheerful:

Airbus would find it difficult to price the Neo more competitively, with such a low production rate, and a mature competitor in the 787. Things were different when the A330neo was first launched, the 787 wasn't mature yet back then. I would say, the boat has sailed for the A330.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 23525
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 4:05 pm

Devilfish wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So I agree time cannot be turned back, the A330NEO could have really impaled Boeing if it arrived earlier.

Ironically, COVID-19 could either be the NEO's savior or the final nail in its coffin. For the time being, this seems to be the most plane that many airlines would need..... :airplane: .....

RR would just have to debug the T7K more while Airbus needs to pare its production costs further and price the NEOs more competitively...et voila...they're in business! :cheerful:

COVID-19 may have bought time, but it hasn't bought money.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ustry.html says RR have made severe cost cutting measures and are negotiating to cut their workforce by 15%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN2280S3 says Airbus is warning that they have to make cuts but they have not announced numbers.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26946
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 4:19 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Ironically, COVID-19 could either be the NEO's savior or the final nail in its coffin. For the time being, (the A330-800) seems to be the most plane that many airlines would need...


The A330-900 is still the better option, even if you can't fill the extra seats.

I am sure KU was able to negotiate a screaming price for their 8 frames, but I am honestly surprised Airbus didn't hold firm and steer them towards the A330-900. Airbus could have easily kept the one A330-800 they had in their test fleet to work on PiPs for the A330-900 as well as possible future freighter and MRTT conversions.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19320
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 4:47 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So I agree time cannot be turned back, the A330NEO could have really impaled Boeing if it arrived earlier.

Ironically, COVID-19 could either be the NEO's savior or the final nail in its coffin. For the time being, this seems to be the most plane that many airlines would need..... :airplane: .....

from the A330neo production thread:
Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYEKz0HX0AA ... name=large


RR would just have to debug the T7K more while Airbus needs to pare its production costs further and price the NEOs more competitively...et voila...they're in business! :cheerful:

Airbus would find it difficult to price the Neo more competitively, with such a low production rate, and a mature competitor in the 787. Things were different when the A330neo was first launched, the 787 wasn't mature yet back then. I would say, the boat has sailed for the A330.

Unfortunately, the A330NEO doesn't have a huge advantage over the 789. I personally think the 788 sales are basically done. A few more to be delivered, but that is out of plan.

The 789, 787-10 will continue to be build at a good, but obviously reduced rate (7 months, or 80 to 84 per year).
https://www.bing.com/search?q=boeing+re ... ORM=CHROMN

In production, 25 is the minimum quantity to produce economically annually. It takes a staff to order the parts needed, both at say Airbus, but then at RR for engines, then at vendors. Vendors won't make batches less than 25, except for 3D printing, because of the costs to have the engineering and management ensure the certified parts are made as per print. The same for rebuilds. Even with 3D printing, because of the time it takes to bring QA up to speed, bigger batches are better. In general, doubling production reduces costs 13%.

Because of the low production rate the A330NEO won't be able to do more PiPs other than those already contractually obligated.
The 787 will still invest in engineering for more 3D printing (weight and cost reduction). As will the A350.

To keep selling, the A330 must be further improved. Otherwise, in 3 to 5 years, when sales pick up again, The 787 will pull enough ahead to make selling the A330 that much tougher. I don't know what Boeing will do to cut costs, but they will do something.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
CFRPwingALbody
Posts: 372
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 5:51 pm

Airbus needs to keep the A330 line open for at least two years to produce the remaining 3 A330-700 Beluga XL and 12x A330-200 for MRTT conversion. Airbus has no choice than to push through. After Covid-19 I expect higher demand for smaller aircraft.
The A330NEO with 251mT MTOW hasn't been certified jet. Most airlines wanted this capability.
Airbus upgrades it's planes frequently and incrementally. The A330 program has already got more than eight upgrades. [Airbus FAST Okt. 2015, A330 special]
The A330NEO were two upgrades, the NEO; Trent 7000 engines and wing tips. And the 251mT MTOW variant. I expect new upgrades around 2025. I don't see Airbus dropping the A330.
If Airbus and RR invests in a Trent 5000 and code D wing they could develop an A300-600R and A330 regional successor. Range should be 4000-6000nm. I think this would get huge orders. Boeing could compete with an 767X or their mom.
Airbus only has the A321XLR (I prefer A325) to do R&D on. Possibly they also work on (P2F) modifications to improve second hand value of A380's and A340-500/-600.
I think A330NEO improvements will increase demand. Let Airbus complete the A330 improvements proposed for the initial A350. And implement new tech; more electrification.

Airbus and suppliers have written off investments in A330 tooling. I don't expect Boeing and suppliers have done that for the 787. Boeing has two 787FALs Airbus has the A330(/A340) FAL. Why is Boeing able to produce the 767 at low rate, but Airbus can't do this!?.
It's not that Airbus has no experience with low production rates. A300+A310, and A340.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 6:32 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Airbus needs to keep the A330 line open for at least two years to produce the remaining 3 A330-700 Beluga XL and 12x A330-200 for MRTT conversion. Airbus has no choice than to push through. After Covid-19 I expect higher demand for smaller aircraft.
The A330NEO with 251mT MTOW hasn't been certified jet. Most airlines wanted this capability.
Airbus upgrades it's planes frequently and incrementally. The A330 program has already got more than eight upgrades. [Airbus FAST Okt. 2015, A330 special]
The A330NEO were two upgrades, the NEO; Trent 7000 engines and wing tips. And the 251mT MTOW variant. I expect new upgrades around 2025. I don't see Airbus dropping the A330.
If Airbus and RR invests in a Trent 5000 and code D wing they could develop an A300-600R and A330 regional successor. Range should be 4000-6000nm. I think this would get huge orders. Boeing could compete with an 767X or their mom.
Airbus only has the A321XLR (I prefer A325) to do R&D on. Possibly they also work on (P2F) modifications to improve second hand value of A380's and A340-500/-600.
I think A330NEO improvements will increase demand. Let Airbus complete the A330 improvements proposed for the initial A350. And implement new tech; more electrification.

Airbus and suppliers have written off investments in A330 tooling. I don't expect Boeing and suppliers have done that for the 787. Boeing has two 787FALs Airbus has the A330(/A340) FAL. Why is Boeing able to produce the 767 at low rate, but Airbus can't do this!?.
It's not that Airbus has no experience with low production rates. A300+A310, and A340.

The 767 is a smaller plane with lower per unit costs than the A330, and hasn't gone through any updates as big as the A330, aside from the 764, which was most likely written down long ago. The investment on R&D on existing 767 models has been recouped long ago while the A330neo most likely hasn't recouped its R&D costs.
 
bkmbr
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:27 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 7:52 pm

This week Panda Beting, co-founder of Azul, stated in his Instagram account that Azul negotiated an agreement for the purchase of the A350 for Azul but that the agreement did not come to fruition and the company ended opting for the A330neo.
Image
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10357
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 8:25 pm

bkmbr wrote:
This week Panda Beting, co-founder of Azul, stated in his Instagram account that Azul negotiated an agreement for the purchase of the A350 for Azul but that the agreement did not come to fruition and the company ended opting for the A330neo.
Image

Azul were going to lease five A350s (see: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... ment-Lease)

The decision to cut the A350s came fairly late, ie, the first frames were already out of the FAL with the tail and winglets painted in Azul livery:



For a while I think Azul might have had both the A350 and A330neo on order (through leases in the case of the A350) at same time but I could be mistaken.
Last edited by Polot on Sat May 16, 2020 8:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 7154
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 8:26 pm

Call me crazy but I dont think Airbus meant the A330neo to be a totally earth-shattering airplane in terms of sales. IMO they built it so as to not totally concede the 330/787 size/capability market to Boeing and at a lower risk and cost way of doing it.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2089
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sat May 16, 2020 10:11 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Most of the discussion is ignoring the elephant in the room, and that is the severe drop in demand for air travel due to COVID-19 that is likely to last for some time. A side effect of this is that, because of reduced demand, oil prices are likely to remain low for some time as well. These two factors mean that demand for shiny new more efficient airliners is going to be nonexistent for some time to come. Most airliners on order now will be deferred, some indefinitely. Some airlines are likely to disappear, leading to a glut of relatively new used planes. In this situation both Airbus and Boeing are going to be in extreme difficulty, and are going to look at any means of saving money. And that will put marginal programs at risk. The most marginal program at Airbus is certainly the A330neo, and my guess is that it is more likely than not going to receive the ax. At Boeing it is the 778.


I too see the 778 as stillborn, at least until a lot changes in the market.

Oil prices had been above $60/bbl from 2004 to 2015, and above $40/bbl from 2002 to this spring. So airplane designs for high efficiency where higher tech with lower fuel burn was costed against oil 150% or more from today. So the trade point between flying a 10 year old A333 or a new A339 that favored the A339, now has the A333 being 20% less on a seat mile basis - buying, trading, or keeping the old plane is the ONLY choice economically - unless one has the monopoly on the given route. The purchase decisions in 2014 probably assumed $70 to $100/bbl making the new plane the ONLY choice as the old frame is a gas guzzler. This is true for both passenger and freight operators.

Airbus was very successful with the A300, A310, and A300-600 freighters both new builds and conversions. In 2020, UPS and FedEX have nearly 120 still flying out of 212 total in service. Successful enough the cockpits are being upgraded to fly them for over a decade more. When I look at the A330 specifications, it isn't obvious why the A330F has not sold in quantity "As of February 2019, Airbus had delivered 38 aircraft with four unfilled orders." per Wiki. This is out of 1,810 A330 orders or 2%.

Airbus A330 P2F are just getting started, with like 5 so far. Not sure what the rate will be for A330 P2F's from here on.

https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/ca ... reighters/

Meanwhile, the B767F has sold over 220 new freighters and there is over 100 P2F's also flying with several MRO's doing conversion, there are around 3 dozen frames slated to be converted. The B777F has 231 total orders at this time.

So the freighter operators that use and love the A300F have gone almost totally Boeing since, there must be an economic / operational factor that has Boeing so dominant. Low oil prices skew this to favor the B767F at both the A330F and B777F expense. Not having that 20 to 30 frames a year being converted will depress the used A330 prices, but helps support the B767 pricing.

If 2 years out long haul aviation is still at 75% or less the pre-Covid amounts that implies roughly 200 77W, 200 767's, 200 787's, 75 A350's, and 300 A330's used frame that are available or under utilized. It is the rare airline that has the cash to order a Wide Body and actually wants to order at this time. Besides if they had the cash why not pick up 10 year old used frames for half the price. There will be enough airlines ceasing operations to have a huge inventory of really nice used ones to lease or buy.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1136
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 4:39 am

US319 wrote:
Only on Anet is the 330NEO bad bad bad and some rumored 767 upgrade the best thing since sliced bread. smh

;)


Revelation wrote:
AA is retiring A330 (and 767 too) while still taking 787s ( ref: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx ). I think fuel has been pretty low for the last several years yet old planes will still be aged out. I don't know that we'll see buyers for all the planes being sent to the desert, certainly not enough for new sales to stall. The concept in theory sounds good but haven't really seen it take off in practice. AC has taken in a few used A330s. People mention DL a lot but they haven't taken in a used wide body in a very long time.

That's something to think about.


Max Q wrote:
Never really understood the purpose of the NEO


Seems to overlap the 350 niche pointlessly

Thank you for this comment. Contradicting evidence is always a nice chance to look for something missing or mistakes in thinking.

A350-900 max thrust: 84,200 lbf / 374.5 kN
RR Trent 7000 (A330 Neo): Maximum thrust: 72,834 lbf / 324.0 kN.

That's 13,3 % less thrust. But why not fix the Trent 7000 on an A350 instead?

Thanks to your comment I now believe because the A330 is needed for later.
Old A330 max thrust: 64,500–71,100 lbf (287–316 kN)
Trent 7000 is a variant of Trent 1000 (B787) Maximum thrust: 265.3–360.4 kN (59,600–81,000 lbf)
As this engine core is able to extract a lot more power it was probably pointless to aim for less thrust with this engine.

Alternatives:
GEnx also from B787: Max thrust: 69,800 lbf (310 kN) - 76,100 lbf (339 kN)
GEnx shrink for B747-8: 66,500 lbf (296 kN)

I believe for an A330 Neo the only engines available were B787 derivatives. The small GEnx of the B747-8 was maybe not good enough. Or Airbus thought the wing is overbuilt to keep it 60m long and making a new 60 m wing for the GEnx shrink was not worth it. After all, we speak of an engine that's a shrink. For a 52 m wing that engine is too strong.
So why to make so much effort? To keep B787 prices in check doesn't sound right to me, as this also means lower A350 prices. As the situation as it is doesn't make sense, I believe we have to look in the future.

I assume Airbus intends the A330 Neo as a means to bridge the gap till a new, smaller engine for a new 52 m wing becomes available.
Here three old models:
A300-600: length 54,08 m , OEW 88,6 t, MTOW 171,7t, range 7,500 km / 4,050 nmi
A330-200: length 58,82 m, OEW 120,6 t, MTOW 242 t, range 13,450 km / 7,250 nmi
B767-300ER: length 54,94 m, OEW 90 t, MTOW 186,9 t, range 11,070 km/ 5,980 nmi

I assume Airbus wants a 95 t OEW, 180 t MTOW, 52 m wing derivative of A330 with length as in A300-600 and A330-200. Airbus therefore mustn't stop production of A330.
When the A330Neo was started in 2014 Airbus may have expected engine makers to be able to attend to the new engine within a few years.
I don't think it's a problem if production remains low and cost per plane is high. Airbus doesn't need to make profits with the A330Neo if it's a life support program to be able to serve MOM in a few years.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 5:37 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Airbus was very successful with the A300, A310, and A300-600 freighters both new builds and conversions. In 2020, UPS and FedEX have nearly 120 still flying out of 212 total in service. Successful enough the cockpits are being upgraded to fly them for over a decade more. When I look at the A330 specifications, it isn't obvious why the A330F has not sold in quantity "As of February 2019, Airbus had delivered 38 aircraft with four unfilled orders." per Wiki. This is out of 1,810 A330 orders or 2%.

Airbus A330 P2F are just getting started, with like 5 so far. Not sure what the rate will be for A330 P2F's from here on.

https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/ca ... reighters/

Meanwhile, the B767F has sold over 220 new freighters and there is over 100 P2F's also flying with several MRO's doing conversion, there are around 3 dozen frames slated to be converted. The B777F has 231 total orders at this time.

So the freighter operators that use and love the A300F have gone almost totally Boeing since, there must be an economic / operational factor that has Boeing so dominant. Low oil prices skew this to favor the B767F at both the A330F and B777F expense. Not having that 20 to 30 frames a year being converted will depress the used A330 prices, but helps support the B767 pricing.

If 2 years out long haul aviation is still at 75% or less the pre-Covid amounts that implies roughly 200 77W, 200 767's, 200 787's, 75 A350's, and 300 A330's used frame that are available or under utilized. It is the rare airline that has the cash to order a Wide Body and actually wants to order at this time. Besides if they had the cash why not pick up 10 year old used frames for half the price. There will be enough airlines ceasing operations to have a huge inventory of really nice used ones to lease or buy.

The situation with the A330 in the cargo market is ironic, its a case where the hunter gets hunted. Whereas the 767 lost out in the passenger market to the A330, it managed to strangle the A330 in the cargo market in the same way.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1136
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 12:03 pm

Sokes wrote:
I assume Airbus intends the A330 Neo as a means to bridge the gap till a new, smaller engine for a new 52 m wing becomes available.

Sorry, but that statement was rubbish. It's true that Airbus may have better fixed the Trent 7000 on the A350. But "bridge a gap" is nonsense.
"Airbus has received 157 net orders for the A350-900 in five years, supposedly its highest-volume widebody program. The larger -1000 recorded just 18 net orders over the same period.
Surprisingly, the A330neo program has been by far the best-selling Airbus widebody in the past five years, when cancellations are taken into account. Its net orders stand at 299 from January 2014 to November 2019. The first-generation A330 came second at 178 net orders.
...
The 787 has been Boeing’s volume widebody program for a number of years. But a deeper look at the models reveals the relative success has been almost entirely due to the 787-9. On a net basis, Boeing lost 19 787-8 orders over the last five years. It received 55 net orders for the 787-10 and 371 orders for the 787-9 since 2014."
source from Dec 2019: https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... ral-change

Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... deliveries

So why are people concerned about the A330Neo's future? 299 A330Neos ordered against 407 B787s since 2014. That doesn't sound bad, especially considering that it was for some time a paper plane competing with a real plane and that a troubled variant of Trent 1000 is the only available engine on A330Neo. One can also argue the other way round: even though the A330Neo is only available with a troubled engine, it got lots of orders once it entered service.
A350 had only 58% of A330Neo orders considering number of planes. Why not worry for A350 instead?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 12:08 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Airbus would find it difficult to price the Neo more competitively, with such a low production rate, and a mature competitor in the 787.

Difficult yes, impossible I don't think so. Once Airbus marketing and negotiators begin offering A33Ns at a lower price, airlines will notice and their orders will reflect this (a while after COVID of course). From there Airbus could build up the volume needed to talk to their suppliers.

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I would say, the boat has sailed for the A330.

I wouldn't write the A33N off just yet. The HI-LO mix with the A359 is a nifty combination as is.



Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 may have bought time, but it hasn't bought money.

Well, Airbus could take a leaf from Boeing's playbook, though I'm not sure if it'd be easy for them.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-crisis



lightsaber wrote:
Unfortunately, the A330NEO doesn't have a huge advantage over the 789. I personally think the 788 sales are basically done. A few more to be delivered, but that is out of plan.

So there's that space where the A33N could be useful. Even if disadvantaged, it could still fight on price and availability.

lightsaber wrote:
In production, 25 is the minimum quantity to produce economically annually. It takes a staff to order the parts needed, both at say Airbus, but then at RR for engines, then at vendors. Vendors won't make batches less than 25, except for 3D printing, because of the costs to have the engineering and management ensure the certified parts are made as per print. The same for rebuilds. Even with 3D printing, because of the time it takes to bring QA up to speed, bigger batches are better. In general, doubling production reduces costs 13%.

Because of the low production rate the A330NEO won't be able to do more PiPs other than those already contractually obligated.

Please indulge my ignorance a bit further on this. Certainly a 25-frame sale per year worldwide is not a gargantuan goal for Airbus to achieve (even taking into account possible deferrals and cancellations?) I think airlines would be content with the current A33N PIPs if the price was right.

lightsaber wrote:
I don't know what Boeing will do to cut costs, but they will do something.

I believe Boeing had already squeezed their suppliers a lot and streamlined production. Has Airbus even begun on that?



Stitch wrote:
I am sure KU was able to negotiate a screaming price for their 8 frames, but I am honestly surprised Airbus didn't hold firm and steer them towards the A330-900.

KU was also on the hook for the A359s they wanted to unload so there's that. Plus, Airbus must be really desperate to add to the A338's order tally, to promote that model further in the market and convince other airlines.



TWA772LR wrote:
Call me crazy but I dont think Airbus meant the A330neo to be a totally earth-shattering airplane in terms of sales. IMO they built it so as to not totally concede the 330/787 size/capability market to Boeing and at a lower risk and cost way of doing it.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26946
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 7:35 pm

Devilfish wrote:
KU was also on the hook for the A359s they wanted to unload so there's that.


A330-900s would have covered that obligation as easily as A330-800s and KU likely would have found easier financing (unless Airbus is providing it).


Devilfish wrote:
Plus, Airbus must be really desperate to add to the A338's order tally, to promote that model further in the market and convince other airlines.


Hasn't really panned out for them, though, has it? Two orders for Uganda Airlines (which I am skeptical will be in 2021, if at all) and four UFOs.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 9:24 pm

Stitch wrote:
A330-900s would have covered that obligation as easily as A330-800s.

Worker deployments to the Gulf region are tapering off and with COVID-19 now, one might say getting the latter may have been a lucky coincidence (them be aghast at traveling in used airliners). :grumpy:

Stitch wrote:
KU likely would have found easier financing (unless Airbus is providing it).

There's the catch.

Stitch wrote:
Two orders for Uganda Airlines (which I am skeptical will be in 2021, if at all) and four UFOs.

Would be surprising if UR pushed through with both...while the four UFOs would be under intense scrutiny in light of recent events.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19320
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 9:42 pm

Devilfish wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unfortunately, the A330NEO doesn't have a huge advantage over the 789. I personally think the 788 sales are basically done. A few more to be delivered, but that is out of plan.

So there's that space where the A33N could be useful. Even if disadvantaged, it could still fight on price and availability.


First, thanks for your sincere questions.
Availability is not a problem for 3 to 7 years, so that advantage went away.

Price is determined by economy of scale. The 787 no longer requires huge investment to sell profitably. It was Boeing's #1 profit maker at, per prior discussion, a high profit per plane. Estimates of $15 to $22 million for a 789. Less for a 788, more.

Unless Airbus can increase production, they lost the cost advantage off the information I've sern.

Devilfish wrote:

lightsaber wrote:
In production, 25 is the minimum quantity to produce economically annually. It takes a staff to order the parts needed, both at say Airbus, but then at RR for engines, then at vendors. Vendors won't make batches less than 25, except for 3D printing, because of the costs to have the engineering and management ensure the certified parts are made as per print. The same for rebuilds. Even with 3D printing, because of the time it takes to bring QA up to speed, bigger batches are better. In general, doubling production reduces costs 13%.

Because of the low production rate the A330NEO won't be able to do more PiPs other than those already contractually obligated.

Please indulge my ignorance a bit further on this. Certainly a 25-frame sale per year worldwide is not a gargantuan goal for Airbus to achieve (even taking into account possible deferrals and cancellations?) I think airlines would be content with the current A33N PIPs if the price was right.



Not a huge goal, my point is cost and aftermarket support. It takes 400+ aircraft in service to minimize costs for spares. More is better.

It takes volume to pay for those $3 million each 3D printing tools as well as the engineering and testing time to certify the new production process. 25 per year is not enough volume.

Devilfish wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I don't know what Boeing will do to cut costs, but they will do something.

I believe Boeing had already squeezed their suppliers a lot and streamlined production. Has Airbus even begun on that?



This forum tends to think the only way to cut costs is squeezing vendors. Most cost cutting is studies on how to use different tooling to produce parts more efficiently. That means paying for engineering hours at the airframer and vendor. There must be an advantage for both before the change is made.

No vendor will agree to a cost cut at minimum runs. They know at low volume, a competitor would have such high business costs that there is no way the competition could undercut costs.

At this time, I speculate the A330NEO has a small cost disadvantage. With time that will become worse.

As will efficiency differences.

A business case to improve an aircraft is easy with volume. It is easier with increasing volume to make a business case for a PiP. The A330NEO needs more volume.

Vendors are hurting right now. It will be pulling teeth to get them to layoff (cut costs). When volume is increasing and skilled workers are scarce, vendors are finding better automated tooling. I've been at shops where a small group of machinists were enough for 24/7 operation on 16 machines (3 shifts, plus 1st shift all weekend). We're not at the stage of building new buildings for new machines.

Have you read Adam Smith's wealth of Nations? A old, 1776 book on economics. The best vendor squeezing happens in boom times.

The A330NEO is a good plane. But its OEW is now above the 789. Per Wikipedia
A333: 129.4 tons
A339 137 (gained 7.6t in engines and wings)
789 128.85t, with rumors of a PiP required to reduce 787-10 weight which will benefit all.

The A330NEO needs PiPs to be competitive in the future. So does the 787.

A better article showing how much better 2018 3D printing was than just a few years earlier. The A350 has a fabulous amount of 3D printing. However, I can point to numerous weldaments, bolted together assemblies, and aluminum parts in the A350 that would have been 3D printed if the design was started today. Saving millions in cost and I would estimate 1.5t of weight, mostly replacing Aluminum with titanium.

The A330NEO and 787 are older designs with far more weight to be taken out. (Less CFRP/GFRP and less titanium).

The technology not yet developed is the ability to 3D print the landing gear bays. There is room to save 1 ton per aircraft and several hundreds thousand dollars per aircraft.

Aircraft design improvements only stop when the profit from future orders do not justify PiPs. I hope the A330NEO can improve the economy of scale and PiPs.

This is what killed off Douglas products. While Airbus is safe, the A330NEO isn't. Since I like competition, this is why I keep advocating an A330NEO.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
AECM
Posts: 295
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 10:28 pm

Hifly operates two A339 and according to their website:

CS-TKY - C18Y353 - DOW = 126 ton
9H-SZN - C32W21Y237 - DOW =132,505 ton

For comparison they also have a former Singapore A333 that is 6,5 years old

9H-TAJ - C30Y255 - DOW = 123,860 ton
 
ewt340
Posts: 1155
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Sun May 17, 2020 10:42 pm

Yes for A330-900neo, no for -800neo.

Either way, many airlines would realize that purchasing small cheap widebodies with great fuel burn for short and medium haul routes would be beneficial to break even during such conditions or on low season.

Would Airbus sold 1,000 frames? Probably not. But even if they reach 400-500 frames, then it would been a really big success.

I mean, think about it, A330neo lineage goes back to A300B1. The cost savings Airbus got from those development are massive.
 
Jetport
Posts: 110
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

Mon May 18, 2020 1:29 am

I still think many folks on Anet don't fully understand the severity of the current COVID caused downturn and basic finance. Very short background:

• It does not matter how much an aircraft cost to develop in the past.
• The only thing that matters today is the cash cost to produce an aircraft at the planned rate and how much you can sell it for, essentially cash flow at planned post COVID rate reduction until you can ramp up again. Many programs from both A & B will have their margins reduced or even become negative due to production cuts. The only one I can't see any potential of becoming positive again after a recovery is the A330NEO. I really don't think the A330NEO was cash flow positive before COVID because of unexpected price pressure from the 787.
• The fact that the A330 was cheap to develop and the 787 was expensive to develop are totally irrelevant going forward, all that money is spent.
• The only reasons the A330NEO sold at all were lack of availability for 787’s and smoking hot deals from Airbus. The 787 is now available as fast as anyone wants one, so the only way Airbus can sell any future A330NEO’s is at very low or no margin.
• If you can buy them for essentially the same price with no wait time, why would anyone buy the inferior in almost every way A330NEO?

The only way the A330NEO is in production 2 years from now is if there is a much faster return to pre-COVID widebody demand faster than anyone, even optimists like me, expect.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos