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dcajet
Topic Author
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Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Mon May 11, 2020 11:49 pm

In an interview with NBC to be aired tomorrow during the Today show.

https://twitter.com/NBCNewsPR/status/12 ... 8447253505
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
phxa340
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:19 am

I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:21 am

- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?
 
Opus99
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Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:22 am

phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.

I thought it would be AA. I wasn’t sure for a while
 
randomdude83
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:23 am

How about...a Merger is more likely to happen. I don't think a MAJOR or at least the Big three will have trouble getting through this. but a Merger is likely to happen especially with all of them shrinking to half their size. Spirit/jet blue? alaska/southwest? american/united? delta/qatar?....ok that last one is a joke.
 
dcajet
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:25 am

questions wrote:
- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?


I'd think he refers to the big 4: AA, DL, UA & WN.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:25 am

phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.


Going “out of business” is very different than filing Chapter 11.

I would think AA would file Chapter 11 vs go out of business.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:29 am

dcajet wrote:
questions wrote:
- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?


I'd think he refers to the big 4: AA, DL, UA & WN.


In the linked clip he did not refer to the big 4. Did you watch the whole interview?

(I’m not trying to give you a hard time. Just trying to understand context and his POV.)
 
NLINK
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:29 am

I think we will only see two US carriers flying major international routes in the next 12-24 months myself from the financial side of it. I also think we will see consolidation in the North American only carriers down to two or three of them. It would not surprise me to see one of the big three assists sold off to survive.

I also think we will see the end of the smaller markets and 50 seaters which will result in only a couple regional carriers left.
Last edited by NLINK on Tue May 12, 2020 12:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:31 am

questions wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.


Going “out of business” is very different than filing Chapter 11.



Yeah I don't know how much stock I would put into what Calhoun said....
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:32 am

questions wrote:
- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?


Neither Allegiant or Sun Country are considered Major airlines.
 
airboss787
Posts: 260
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:39 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:32 am

I am predicting a Frontier/Spirit merger and AA really shrinking more than any of the others. Maybe UA may also file for Chapter 11 along with AA. DL and WN seem to be decently strong. I am not sure of the smaller ones, maybe Allegiant will shut down or merge, unless their business model works. Not sure about JetBlue. It seems to be neither small nor that big, somewhere in the middle. Dont think Alaska can swallow them. Hoping for the best. No shutdowns is ideal.
Last edited by airboss787 on Tue May 12, 2020 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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dca1
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:35 am

airboss787 wrote:
I am predicting a Frontier/Spirit merger and AA really shrinking more than any of the others. Maybe UA may also file for Chapter 11 along with AA. DL and WN seem to be decently strong. I am not sure of the smaller ones, maybe Allegiant will shut down or merge. Not sure about JetBlue. It seems to be neither small neither that big, somewhere in the middle. Dont think Alaska can swallow them. Hoping for the best. No shutdowns is ideal.


I agree. I think a round of mergers is more likely than a complete shutdown. Spirit/Frontier would be a natural fit. Perhaps JetBlue/Alaska?
 
jayunited
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:35 am

phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.


I think AA may have to file chapter 11, but I think AA will still be in business.

I think another round of consolidations will happen as a result of this crisis if that happens a few airlines could cease to exist. Even if consolidations happens I think AA will still be around.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:36 am

randomdude83 wrote:
How about...a Merger is more likely to happen.


Mergers don't create quick cash. No carrier has surplus cash - not even WN.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:37 am

randomdude83 wrote:
How about...a Merger is more likely to happen. I don't think a MAJOR or at least the Big three will have trouble getting through this. but a Merger is likely to happen especially with all of them shrinking to half their size. Spirit/jet blue? alaska/southwest? american/united? delta/qatar?....ok that last one is a joke.


I’m not so sure. There is a severe lack of demand. According to the linked portion of the interview demand “may be back 25% by September” and “may be back by 50% by end of year.”

In this scenario 1+1 is not needed for .25 to .50. Yes, historically airline mergers have reduced capacity but not by that amount. There may be instances of buying assets, e.g., aircraft and slots at restricted airports. But for the most part Calhoun is referring to going out of business, i.e., just completely ceasing to operate.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:39 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
How about...a Merger is more likely to happen.


Mergers don't create quick cash. No carrier has surplus cash - not even WN.


Agree. This is not the environment for mergers.
 
dca1
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:40 am

questions wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
How about...a Merger is more likely to happen. I don't think a MAJOR or at least the Big three will have trouble getting through this. but a Merger is likely to happen especially with all of them shrinking to half their size. Spirit/jet blue? alaska/southwest? american/united? delta/qatar?....ok that last one is a joke.


I’m not so sure. There is a severe lack of demand. According to the linked portion of the interview demand “may be back 25% by September” and “may be back by 50% by end of year.”

In this scenario 1+1 is not needed for .25 to .50. Yes, historically airline mergers have reduced capacity but not by that amount. There may be instances of buying assets, e.g., aircraft and slots at restricted airports. But for the most part Calhoun is referring to going out of business, i.e., just completely ceasing to operate.


Yes, in the interview he implied more like a "shutdown" was I believe the term the reporter asked... but it was regarding a major carrier... so if not the Big US4 which other "major carrier" would he be referring?
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:43 am

CobaltScar wrote:
questions wrote:
- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?


Neither Allegiant or Sun Country are considered Major airlines.


That did not answer my question.

How is a “major” airline defined? The answer to that question may shed light on why you believe “Neither Allegiant or Sun Country are considered Major airlines.”
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:44 am

CobaltScar wrote:
questions wrote:
- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?


Neither Allegiant or Sun Country are considered Major airlines.


Allegiant is included in the DOT's list of carriers with at least 0.5 percent of total domestic scheduled service passenger revenues plus any branded codeshare partners.



The fleet of 101 mainline aircraft is not trivial. In mainline domestic destination count Allegiant exceeds AA or UA (but not DL, which was quicker to get off the RJ Kool-Aid.) Allegiant carried 30% more passengers than Hawaiian last year.
 
airlinewatcher1
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:46 am

It makes me wonder what would become of DFW, CLT, DCA, and MIA in the event of AA going out of business. It seems unlikely, but I never say never nowadays. No airline is safe. Demand isn't coming back anytime soon.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:49 am

jayunited wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.


I think AA may have to file chapter 11, but I think AA will still be in business.

I think another round of consolidations will happen as a result of this crisis if that happens a few airlines could cease to exist. Even if consolidations happens I think AA will still be around.


With the severe lack of demand vs capacity and the long road to full air travel recovery, why do you believe consolidation opportunities exist?

There are too many seats, aircraft, airlines for demand. From a business perspective, consolidation does not make financial sense in this environment.

Bankruptcy to restructure and shed debt may make sense to some.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:50 am

questions wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.


Going “out of business” is very different than filing Chapter 11.

I would think AA would file Chapter 11 vs go out of business.


These kids don't know what they're talking about, AA isn't going anywhere, the fed would never let that happen.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 12:58 am

An interesting follow-on question in the interview would have been...

Given the drastic reduction in demand, your prediction of a major US airline shutting down and the fact the US aviation environment is not dissimilar to the global aviation market, what is the impact to Boeing’s commercial airline business? Who will need the 737MAX, 777 and 787? The global inventory of fairly young used aircraft could satisfy airlines’ needs for quite some time. How are Boeing’s order books impacted?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:05 am

Listening to that short clip:

We won't be at 100% by September, maybe 25%.

End of year 50%.

This will very much hurt the highly leveraged companies. Just as in retail the highly leveraged are failing.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
dcajet
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:11 am

questions wrote:
- Alaska
- Allegiant
- American
- Delta
- Frontier
- Hawaiian
- jetBlue
- Southwest
- Spirit
- Sun Country
- United


What is considered a “major” airline? What’s a non-major US airline? Commuter airlines?


An airline is considered a major one when it posts over US$1B in revenue in a fiscal year. So all of the above make the cut except for Sun Country,

Additionally, the following regionals & freight ones made the cut in 2019

Envoy Air (subsidiary of American Airlines Group)
Republic Airways (subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings)
SkyWest Airlines (subsidiary of SkyWest, Inc.)

Freight

Atlas Air
FedEx Express
Kalitta Air
Polar Air Cargo
UPS Airlines
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
questions
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:25 am

dcajet wrote:
An airline is considered a major one when it posts over US$1B in revenue in a fiscal year. So all of the above make the cut except for Sun Country,

Additionally, the following regionals & freight ones made the cut in 2019

Envoy Air (subsidiary of American Airlines Group)
Republic Airways (subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings)
SkyWest Airlines (subsidiary of SkyWest, Inc.)

Freight

Atlas Air
FedEx Express
Kalitta Air
Polar Air Cargo
UPS Airlines


Thanks.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:30 am

I see American as most likely to file for bankruptcy. The question then remains as to which of the regionals will survive. AA currently fully owns 3 regionals: Envoy, PSA, and Piedmont.

As for regionals, I could see Mesa and Air Wisconsin as being in big trouble, and I only expect one of ExpressJet or CommutAir to survive. SkyWest is going to be the real beneficiary under CARES Act, although they will end DL CRJ2 flying this year (the DL-owned CRJ2s are headed back to DL while the OO-owned frames will likely be permanently retired.)

Sun Country will be an interesting case, as they're transitioning to a hybrid passenger and cargo airline (with B738 freighters).
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:37 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see American as most likely to file for bankruptcy. The question then remains as to which of the regionals will survive. AA currently fully owns 3 regionals: Envoy, PSA, and Piedmont.

As for regionals, I could see Mesa and Air Wisconsin as being in big trouble, and I only expect one of ExpressJet or CommutAir to survive. SkyWest is going to be the real beneficiary under CARES Act, although they will end DL CRJ2 flying this year (the DL-owned CRJ2s are headed back to DL while the OO-owned frames will likely be permanently retired.)

Sun Country will be an interesting case, as they're transitioning to a hybrid passenger and cargo airline (with B738 freighters).


That's not true, about OO. They're ending 55 of the 85 Delta CR2's this year, not all.
From my cold, dead hands
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:48 am

I’m thinking a lot of carriers are going to retrench back into their stronger hubs and stop hoping focus cities will grow up to be adults. BOS won’t materialize for DL as they hoped, WN will cut in tourist meccas like LAS and SAT and UA will stop pretending DEN is the same as it was in 1990. There won’t be anything called Frontier Airlines five years from now. If so, it will be a new off-brand carrier based in Burkina Faso. Spirit may find some way to dummy-proof its network, but I doubt it has much to gain from merging with F9. If NK doesn’t declare Ch. 11 before the end of next year, I’ll be shocked. So yes, a major carrier will go belly up, even if it takes a merger or bankruptcy.
 
winginit
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:48 am

Opus99 wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.

I thought it would be AA. I wasn’t sure for a while


You know I never thought we'd see another carving of the cooked pig like we did with Pan Am but here we are. Let's see here...

- United bring your plate right over here we're going to give you the rest of ORD, yes congratulations on your new fortress hub
- Delta there you go step right up here's your significant slice of LAX get it while it's hot and here's some JFK to top you off
- Southwest here you go son you enjoy that steaming slice of Phoenix heat
 
Newark727
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 1:52 am

dcajet wrote:

Freight

Atlas Air
FedEx Express
Kalitta Air
Polar Air Cargo
UPS Airlines


I didn't realize Kalitta was that big. Good for them.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:04 am

Frankly, all of the big 4 US airlines are candidates for bankruptcy. The question is who will move first out of necessity. Perhaps it will be AA, which might figure that waiting it out this time, like they did post-9/11 may not be worth it and allow them to lower their costs and gain the upper hand in that metric (US airlines have time and again used bankruptcy to do this). I can also see UA being a solid candidate for Chapter 11. It continues to mismanage the crisis, reverting back to its old ways of thinking and doing things, and this is not helping them. As for a liquidation, I think the ULCC are the ones most at risk. They don't serve the business travel market meaningfully and leisure travel has cratered. I see consolidation as the way out for the Big 4 to have to shrink so much that they can't recover. AS/AA, UA/WN, DL/B6 or maybe AA/B6, AS/DL, UA/WN. It will be like the banks during the financial crisis in 2008. But as for a Major Airline going out of business, I would put Spirit, Frontier at the top of the list.
 
ehaase
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:09 am

Can the experts see AA downsizing to hubs in PHL, CLT, DCA, MIA, and DFW?
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:10 am

Why merge when you can just shop for assets at a Ch.11 fire sale?
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
N292UX
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:12 am

ehaase wrote:
Can the experts see AA downsizing to hubs in PHL, CLT, DCA, MIA, and DFW?

They'd keep one of their western hubs (probably PHX). And I doubt they'd totally de-hub ORD too. That's a 500+ daily operation right before COVID-19. LAX and NYC could definitely see some deep cuts, though.
 
ADL14
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:13 am

It seems like just going by debt that AA will be the one to do bankruptcy. But I'm not sure any of the Big 4 will outright cease operations. Maybe B6, NK, F9, AS...
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:14 am

winginit wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.

I thought it would be AA. I wasn’t sure for a while


You know I never thought we'd see another carving of the cooked pig like we did with Pan Am but here we are. Let's see here...

- United bring your plate right over here we're going to give you the rest of ORD, yes congratulations on your new fortress hub
- Delta there you go step right up here's your significant slice of LAX get it while it's hot and here's some JFK to top you off
- Southwest here you go son you enjoy that steaming slice of Phoenix heat


I was thinking the same thing, If AA files CH 11, they get carved up like you said,

with UA and DL taking over the best hubs. I can imagine quite a dogfight for the MIA hub and their
S. American hub.

I could also see UA taking the chance to bolt from Chicago and set up a new HQ in AA's palatial new campus that
was recently completed. Cost of living and taxes are a helluva lot lower in Texas then ORD
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:20 am

I can see all of the big 4 scaling back on fleets, hubs, destinations, staff, etc., but none of them are going away. AA will probably be United-sized or smaller when it’s all said and done.

B6, NK, F9, and AS can’t all exist in this new climate. I’m not sure how that will play out, but based upon the numbers, AS and NK will probably be fine. HA will be fine as well.

I think the regional carriers will be hit the hardest and the government may have to step in to keep select routes flying.
 
dcajet
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:20 am

winginit wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
I mean, he can’t just come out and say AA is so far up to its eyes in debt that they will be out of business by the end of the year ... he’s gotta keep it in generalities.

I thought it would be AA. I wasn’t sure for a while


You know I never thought we'd see another carving of the cooked pig like we did with Pan Am but here we are. Let's see here...

- United bring your plate right over here we're going to give you the rest of ORD, yes congratulations on your new fortress hub
- Delta there you go step right up here's your significant slice of LAX get it while it's hot and here's some JFK to top you off
- Southwest here you go son you enjoy that steaming slice of Phoenix heat


And in this "carving the pig" scenario, who'd get AA's crown jewel, the MIA hub with the Latin America franchise? It'd sure come in nicely for Delta & LATAM's Latin adventures!
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
LawnDart
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:22 am

Quote
You know I never thought we'd see another carving of the cooked pig like we did with Pan Am but here we are. Let's see here...

- United bring your plate right over here we're going to give you the rest of ORD, yes congratulations on your new fortress hub
- Delta there you go step right up here's your significant slice of LAX get it while it's hot and here's some JFK to top you off
- Southwest here you go son you enjoy that steaming slice of Phoenix heat
Unquote

Well, I'm not sure anyone, including the guy at Boeing, can predict what the industry is going to look like anytime soon, but as long as we're going to play the AA game:

AA creditors want some $, so they pressure the BoD to shed assets instead of CH11. Who wants what?

UA: ORD? Nah, just let them fail, and we'll pick up the traffic there. CLT, however, looks interesting. We need a SE US hub. DCA slots would complement our IAD operation nicely, also, and make us the largest carrier in WAS. How much do you want? HOW MUCH?!? Hmm... do we just let them collapse, and move in afterwards?

DL: DFW. MIA. And LGA and JFK slots, so that we are, without a doubt, the largest carrier in NYC. How much do you want? HOW MUCH?!? Hmm... do we just let them collapse, and move in afterwards?

SO, UA largest at WAS and EWR, DL largest at NYC / BOS.

PHL and PHX? Who cares, really. Maybe WN would expand at both. LAX? UA may want to consolidate in SFO, keep LAX status quo. DL grows LAX.

WN / B6 / NK / F9 scream like stuck pigs so they don't get left out of the slot sales at DCA / LGA (and, to a lesser extent, JFK).

One caveat - can anyone afford anything by the time any major starts to fold? Hmm...
 
whywhytee
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Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:31 am

I just cannot imagine AA going out of business entirely.
 
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AVENSAB727
Posts: 1390
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:02 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:33 am

Sooner787 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I thought it would be AA. I wasn’t sure for a while


You know I never thought we'd see another carving of the cooked pig like we did with Pan Am but here we are. Let's see here...

- United bring your plate right over here we're going to give you the rest of ORD, yes congratulations on your new fortress hub
- Delta there you go step right up here's your significant slice of LAX get it while it's hot and here's some JFK to top you off
- Southwest here you go son you enjoy that steaming slice of Phoenix heat


I was thinking the same thing, If AA files CH 11, they get carved up like you said,

with UA and DL taking over the best hubs. I can imagine quite a dogfight for the MIA hub and their
S. American hub.

I could also see UA taking the chance to bolt from Chicago and set up a new HQ in AA's palatial new campus that
was recently completed. Cost of living and taxes are a helluva lot lower in Texas then ORD

If UA does bolt from Chicago, and sets up a new HQ in Texas, it will be in Houston, not Dallas.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
UA444
Posts: 2997
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:35 am

Sooner787 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I thought it would be AA. I wasn’t sure for a while


You know I never thought we'd see another carving of the cooked pig like we did with Pan Am but here we are. Let's see here...

- United bring your plate right over here we're going to give you the rest of ORD, yes congratulations on your new fortress hub
- Delta there you go step right up here's your significant slice of LAX get it while it's hot and here's some JFK to top you off
- Southwest here you go son you enjoy that steaming slice of Phoenix heat

UA is not leaving Chicago HQ.
I was thinking the same thing, If AA files CH 11, they get carved up like you said,

with UA and DL taking over the best hubs. I can imagine quite a dogfight for the MIA hub and their
S. American hub.

I could also see UA taking the chance to bolt from Chicago and set up a new HQ in AA's palatial new campus that
was recently completed. Cost of living and taxes are a helluva lot lower in Texas then ORD
 
reltney
Posts: 634
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2004 1:34 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:38 am

Mmmm a major US carrier....... he should be more worried about a major aircraft manufacturer going out of business... what a flake... next....
Knives don't kill people. People with knives kill people.
OUTLAW KNIVES.

I am a pilot, therefore I envy no one...
 
TUSDawg23
Posts: 272
Joined: Sun May 30, 2010 2:43 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:46 am

I think B6 is the most vulnerable of the major carriers. Their biggest hub in JFK is an area that people don't want to travel to right now because of it being a covid hotbed and they have a nice east coast operation but are by no means the 800 pound gorilla that WN is on the west coast so they don't exude dominance really anywhere. Not to mention covid is really going to put a kink in their plans to go trans-atlantic. Mint is a nice product but they need to focus on putting butts in the seats at this point. I'm very concerned for their long term sustainability.
 
User avatar
SLCUT2777
Posts: 3476
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2006 12:17 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:47 am

ADL14 wrote:
It seems like just going by debt that AA will be the one to do bankruptcy. But I'm not sure any of the Big 4 will outright cease operations. Maybe B6, NK, F9, AS...


DL grabs AS! Gulp! Now they've got SEA, and that turf war ends.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
jetawayusa
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:00 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:53 am

so... many of you are talking about Chapter11 ...(reorganization)....I am not verse on Bankruptcy laws in the USA....but can companies that have gone thru Chapter11 file again? I know Continental in the past have done so multiple times but...I thought those laws were changed. Can someone with knowledge on US Bankruptcy laws shed some light? Also...doesn't a company NEED quite a bit of Cash to go into Chapter11 since "credit" is no long available and they have to pay cash to operate the "business". And in order to qualify for C11 you need a plausible "reorganization" plan.... How do you have a "plan" when the virus and the world is so uncertain these day??!!
Last edited by jetawayusa on Tue May 12, 2020 2:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
TheLunchbox
Posts: 80
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:54 am

TUSDawg23 wrote:
I think B6 is the most vulnerable of the major carriers. Their biggest hub in JFK is an area that people don't want to travel to right now because of it being a covid hotbed and they have a nice east coast operation but are by no means the 800 pound gorilla that WN is on the west coast so they don't exude dominance really anywhere. Not to mention covid is really going to put a kink in their plans to go trans-atlantic. Mint is a nice product but they need to focus on putting butts in the seats at this point. I'm very concerned for their long term sustainability.


Technically, NYC is trending way down from the rest of the country which is going up. You could have made a strong argument a month ago but not so much now.
Last edited by TheLunchbox on Tue May 12, 2020 3:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
dcajet
Topic Author
Posts: 4682
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Tue May 12, 2020 2:55 am

jetawayusa wrote:
so many are talking about Chapter11 ...(reorganization)....I am not verse on Bankruptcy laws in the USA....but can companies that have gone the Chapter11 file again? I know Continental in the past have done so multiple times but...I thought those laws were changed. Can someone with knowledge on US Bankruptcy laws shed some light? Also...doesn't a company NEED quite a bit of Cash to go into Chapter11 since "credit" is not long available and they have to pay cash to operate the "business". And in order to qualify for C11 you need a plausible "reorganization" plan.... How do you have a "plan" when the virus and the world is so uncertain these day??!!


Yes they can. Latest example is Avianca. Did it in 2003 and now once again,
Keep calm and wash your hands.
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