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Miamiairport
Posts: 522
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Wed May 13, 2020 7:08 pm

I see AA in Chapter 11 sold to a competitor and creditors taking stock in the newly combined airline in exchange for their debt. The government will be there to facilitate the deal.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6113
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Wed May 13, 2020 7:17 pm

TomJoel wrote:
Has to be AA with the amount of debt they have. At a minimum I can see AA downsizing tremendously with a focus on MIA and DFW. Might even see AA drawback at DFW in favor of MIA since DFW hasn't exactly been a crown jewel here lately. Also, I think we will finally see the long awaited demise of Envoy.


AA's margins at DFW are almost double what they are at MIA.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
rj1385
Posts: 117
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2007 9:09 am

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Wed May 13, 2020 7:21 pm

I assume the fact that the MAX is sitting in the parking lot is helping AA, United, Southwest and Alaska in a way because those leases/purchases are not realized yet and are unknown?
Those Airlines get to thank Boeing for that assist.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 224
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Wed May 13, 2020 7:31 pm

CNBC at noon had some pretty powerful analysts on. One presented the point that he didn't know why the Govt selected the airlines for such special treatment. He stated that he would have let them file bankruptcy and then have the government provide the DIP financing. His quote was something like -" let the shareholders and the bondholders take it on the chin". How's this theory instead - that the government was not really concerned with airline employees working but with the impact of what is called a "Lehman Bros. Moment". This being the bankruptcy of Lehman Bros causing a run on the banks in 2008. A failure of a several big airlines in March and its ripple effect might have would have caused a massive financial meltdown on top of pandemic. The airline bailout bought time for the Fed and the US Congress to flood liquidity into the market which recovered most of it's losses. The airlines only got the aid because they would have been the first to fail. With the re-opening of the economy, the airlines now stand with all the other industries that have been hurt by COVID-19. Those that have been hurt worse than the others will file bankruptcy. This list will include many retailers, hospitals, real estate reits, a couple of dozen medium sized oil companies, the last of the coal miners and maybe an auto company or steel company. Let's hope they find a vaccine soon.
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    TangoandCash
    Posts: 38
    Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:52 pm

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 7:35 pm

    Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.
     
    AEROFAN
    Posts: 1844
    Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 7:36 pm

    Will not happen.
     
    dfw88
    Posts: 112
    Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:25 pm

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 7:43 pm

    TangoandCash wrote:
    Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


    You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?
     
    Insertnamehere
    Posts: 299
    Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:44 am

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 7:53 pm

    winginit wrote:
    Insertnamehere wrote:
    winginit wrote:

    Ah yes, because government run SQ and EK are just known globally for being total shite airlines.


    Those airlines are put relatively at arm's length in terms of government oversight. It's easy to cherry-pick successes, its also easy to cherry-pick failures such as Alitalia, Etihad, and most notably, South African.

    Why should the government be in charge of air travel?


    I never said the government should, as they have been in the past, be in charge of travel. I was simply pushing back on the claim that government is fundamentally incapable of efficiency and that they run nothing well. The military comes to mind as well.


    No, the government cannot run things well. The military is host full of inefficiencies, in the Air Force you have the F-35, which is late and over budget, the F-22 which was over budget, the B-2 which was over budget, the B-52 which hasn't had an adequate replacement, the B-1 which was over budget. The navy too, the LCS Ships, late, overbudget, and maintenance issues, the Zumwalt class, late, and over budget.

    The government should not be running airlines because what happens is you get more industries becoming talking points during election speeches which means that they will be designed to fulfill whatever agenda the politicians at the time will be going for, and not a long-term plan.

    You listed Singapore and Emirates, and yes do the local governments have majority ownership of the airline? yes. The big difference is though that they are not routinely meddling in the affairs of the airlines and letting them instead of run as a private business, in the U.S. that wouldn't happen.
     
    Insertnamehere
    Posts: 299
    Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:44 am

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 7:55 pm

    dfw88 wrote:
    TangoandCash wrote:
    Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


    You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?


    The fact that the airline has garnered such hatred shows that it desperately needs a complete beheading of its C-Suite and new upper management to properly re-design the airline to be more competitive with the US3 who actually have better reputations.
     
    tphuang
    Posts: 4915
    Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 7:56 pm

    dfw88 wrote:
    TangoandCash wrote:
    Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


    You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?


    To be fair. When the demand comes back, those workers will be hired by someone else. And frankly even if AA gets close to chapter 7, it will likely sell off assets to other airlines, which would still keep most of those workers employed.

    And when AA or anyone else files chapter 11, there will be massive layoffs regardless.
     
    JAMBOJET
    Posts: 275
    Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 8:03 pm

    tphuang wrote:
    dfw88 wrote:
    TangoandCash wrote:
    Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


    You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?


    To be fair. When the demand comes back, those workers will be hired by someone else. And frankly even if AA gets close to chapter 7, it will likely sell off assets to other airlines, which would still keep most of those workers employed.

    And when AA or anyone else files chapter 11, there will be massive layoffs regardless.

    It's amazing how "free-market dictates all" you are when it doesn't concern JetBlue and Heathrow slots. :)
     
    UpNAWAy
    Posts: 670
    Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 8:06 pm

    It would be more like 1 million+ jobs when you factor in all the vendors, airport staff and 3rd parties that get a huge % of their revenues from AA.
     
    Ziyulu
    Posts: 836
    Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 8:53 pm

    TangoandCash wrote:
    Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


    How is AA worse than UA? UA has higher baggage fees, both do not serve meals on most domestic flights. Wouldn't UA also be a low cost carrier?
     
    MohawkWeekend
    Posts: 224
    Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

    Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

    Wed May 13, 2020 8:54 pm

    20.5 million people filed for unemployment in April w/o any major airline layoffs.
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      User avatar
      Revelation
      Posts: 23741
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      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:02 pm

      UpNAWAy wrote:
      It would be more like 1 million+ jobs when you factor in all the vendors, airport staff and 3rd parties that get a huge % of their revenues from AA.

      Unfortunately the demand for their services has now evaporated. AA management took a high risk strategy of buying lots of new airplanes hoping they would pay off over time but had really unfortunate timing, stuff happens.

      Isn't the right answer to remove excess supply so the surviving companies have a better chance of recovery? Should banks keep giving them money they can't be sure will be paid back? Should the government keep funding them with no clear end in sight? Don't bank shareholders matter? Don't taxpayers matter?
      Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
      The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
      Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
      The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
       
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      DarkSnowyNight
      Posts: 2628
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      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:22 pm

      dfw88 wrote:
      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


      You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?



      That is not a winning hand. I personally have a decent amount of friends employed at AA, so I do not wish to see them destroyed outright.

      But, like most people, the most rotten, horrific, absolutely low-down, no good experiences I have ever endured or witnessed as a paying customer have also been at the hands of AA. Almost to the exclusion of other carriers. And that is with factors like DFW's better-than-excellent layout and extremely low workload/productivity expectations working in AA's favor. I do not know what is going on over there, but the extreme anti-customer mentality that dates back since far beyond the TWA merger is not going to win any support.

      Like it or not, he is just saying what most of us are thinking.


      JAMBOJET wrote:
      tphuang wrote:
      dfw88 wrote:

      You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?


      To be fair. When the demand comes back, those workers will be hired by someone else. And frankly even if AA gets close to chapter 7, it will likely sell off assets to other airlines, which would still keep most of those workers employed.

      And when AA or anyone else files chapter 11, there will be massive layoffs regardless.

      It's amazing how "free-market dictates all" you are when it doesn't concern JetBlue and Heathrow slots. :)


      Well there, definitely not username JumboJet with a new name, I for one see that username tphaung tends to be pretty balanced on these things. He may be biased toward B6 —I will not deny I am— but that is hardly surprising given the generally superior product involved.

      In any case, what is he wrong about here?
      "Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
       
      winginit
      Posts: 2838
      Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:23 pm

      MohawkWeekend wrote:
      20.5 million people filed for unemployment in April w/o any major airline layoffs.


      Right... because no carrier who took a dime of grant money from the government is allowed to lay anyone off until October 1st. United has already said that those who are being laid off will be notified end of July and paid through September.
       
      winginit
      Posts: 2838
      Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 pm

      Insertnamehere wrote:
      No, the government cannot run things well. The military is host full of inefficiencies, in the Air Force you have the F-35, which is late and over budget, the F-22 which was over budget, the B-2 which was over budget, the B-52 which hasn't had an adequate replacement, the B-1 which was over budget. The navy too, the LCS Ships, late, overbudget, and maintenance issues, the Zumwalt class, late, and over budget.


      Oooo late and over budget? You're right, that never happens in the private sector. Never ever. :rotfl:

      And remind me... who is making those F-35s and F-22s and B-2s? Because it sure as hell isn't the US Military that's making them.

      My comment was not meant to spark a big government debate - it was simply push back on the far to broad blanket statement that the government can never be efficient and effective.
       
      JAMBOJET
      Posts: 275
      Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:33 pm

      DarkSnowyNight wrote:
      Well there, definitely not username JumboJet with a new name, I for one see that username tphaung tends to be pretty balanced on these things. He may be biased toward B6 —I will not deny I am— but that is hardly surprising given the generally superior product involved.

      In any case, what is he wrong about here?

      DIdn't say he was. Just a commentary how everyone loves the Market's Free Hand until it doesn't work for them...
       
      JAMBOJET
      Posts: 275
      Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:34 pm

      Revelation wrote:
      UpNAWAy wrote:
      It would be more like 1 million+ jobs when you factor in all the vendors, airport staff and 3rd parties that get a huge % of their revenues from AA.

      Unfortunately the demand for their services has now evaporated. AA management took a high risk strategy of buying lots of new airplanes hoping they would pay off over time but had really unfortunate timing, stuff happens.

      Isn't the right answer to remove excess supply so the surviving companies have a better chance of recovery? Should banks keep giving them money they can't be sure will be paid back? Should the government keep funding them with no clear end in sight? Don't bank shareholders matter? Don't taxpayers matter?

      What a strange comment to make when AA hasn't even filed Chptr 11...
      It probably is the right answer for Delta, United, and Southwest's shareholders and employees.
      However, it would also be the right answer for AA, UA, and WN's shareholders and employees for Delta to do your "take one for the team" strategy and just liquidate when they run out of cash eventually in this current environment.
      Or AA, DL, and WN shareholders for UA to "take one for the team".
      Probably just as right of an answer for Delta to retire all their old gas-guzzlers and remove the extra capacity that way while making the air cleaner at the same time.

      Probably the best answer is all carriers to trim a bit and remove unprofitable games like focus cities and hubs where nearly all routes are duplicative and flown at a higher cost than local and international carriers (can someone say SEA?)
      Last edited by JAMBOJET on Wed May 13, 2020 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
       
      tphuang
      Posts: 4915
      Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 9:42 pm

      JAMBOJET wrote:
      tphuang wrote:
      dfw88 wrote:

      You do realize you're rooting for 150,000 people to be out of work, only of whom is Doug Parker, right?


      To be fair. When the demand comes back, those workers will be hired by someone else. And frankly even if AA gets close to chapter 7, it will likely sell off assets to other airlines, which would still keep most of those workers employed.

      And when AA or anyone else files chapter 11, there will be massive layoffs regardless.

      It's amazing how "free-market dictates all" you are when it doesn't concern JetBlue and Heathrow slots. :)


      Given that I've been making the same argument about letting VS collapse and the impact on total number airline jobs, it would be quite hypocritical if I changed my tunes here, right?
       
      AA747123
      Posts: 284
      Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:15 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 10:04 pm

      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


      So you are rooting for 150,000 direct airline jobs to be lost. People with families to support. Yo do also realize that also that each direct airline job supports about 4-5 others, so if airline XYZ with 150,000 employees goes CH7 it could impact up to 500,000 other individuals. If thats what you want you are not a very nice person.
       
      User avatar
      NWAESC
      Posts: 1456
      Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 10:16 pm

      tphuang wrote:
      To be fair. When the demand comes back, those workers will be hired by someone else. And frankly even if AA gets close to chapter 7, it will likely sell off assets to other airlines, which would still keep most of those workers employed.


      No carrier will want to take on more employees. They'll pick up the slots/equipment/whatever and leave the people behind.
      "Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
       
      CIDFlyer
      Posts: 2155
      Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Wed May 13, 2020 10:39 pm

      My opinion DL is safe. If UA goes, for ORD AA will pick up the slack. Maybe B6 grows there. DL will want IAH for a south central Texas hub. DEN southwest and Frontier could pick up the slack. LAX Delta expands. SFO perhaps AA could take over. EWR and IAD would probably be picked over.

      If it was AA- Delta takes DFW and DCA and UA would take CLT and MIA.

      I also think Allegiant will be fine,
      They have done a great job of diversifying their network. Sure they go to a lot of travel destinations but they also provide a good link for people with 2nd home/ relatives who have relocated to those areas. I know a lot of people who use them just for that.

      Needless to say, hopefully they all stay in business in one form or another.
       
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      Revelation
      Posts: 23741
      Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 12:08 am

      JAMBOJET wrote:
      What a strange comment to make when AA hasn't even filed Chptr 11...
      It probably is the right answer for Delta, United, and Southwest's shareholders and employees.
      However, it would also be the right answer for AA, UA, and WN's shareholders and employees for Delta to do your "take one for the team" strategy and just liquidate when they run out of cash eventually in this current environment.
      Or AA, DL, and WN shareholders for UA to "take one for the team".
      Probably just as right of an answer for Delta to retire all their old gas-guzzlers and remove the extra capacity that way while making the air cleaner at the same time.

      Probably the best answer is all carriers to trim a bit and remove unprofitable games like focus cities and hubs where nearly all routes are duplicative and flown at a higher cost than local and international carriers (can someone say SEA?)

      That's not really how these things play out.

      The stronger carrier(s) aren't going to take a haircut so the weaker one(s) survive.

      Their obligation is to their shareholders, not those of other airlines.

      If they volunteer to surrender business so a competitor can survive, they'd be sued pretty much instantly.

      It's pretty clear that tactical "loss leader" flying has disappeared in the current climate.

      Now we are left with "survival of the fittest".
      Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
      The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
      Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
      The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
       
      User avatar
      DarkSnowyNight
      Posts: 2628
      Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:59 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 12:34 am

      JAMBOJET wrote:
      DIdn't say he was. Just a commentary how everyone loves the Market's Free Hand until it doesn't work for them...


      I do not believe that to be the case. I do not see how anyone who knows anything about the airline business can call it anything close to a truly 'Free Market', given the costs to run such an operation.




      AA747123 wrote:
      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


      So you are rooting for 150,000 direct airline jobs to be lost. People with families to support. Yo do also realize that also that each direct airline job supports about 4-5 others, so if airline XYZ with 150,000 employees goes CH7 it could impact up to 500,000 other individuals. If thats what you want you are not a very nice person.


      Obviously, no one is rooting for that. Going to cheaply emotive extremes is another thing no one is doing, so from you, less of that please.

      And your reasoning is flawed as hell. It is not '1 airline job supports 4 - 5 others.' That is ridiculously indefensible. Those 4 - 5 other jobs are in vendor or support functions which are used by multiple carriers simultaneously. A fueler does not work only one airline per shift. Nor does contract MX. Nor ground handling. Airport concessions are not exclusive to an airline. Nor is any airport service. If it were even close to what you say, they would be in housed, as that is a far cheaper operative method. Those vendor jobs will be fine long after the point when they have turned the lights out at AA.
      "Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
       
      JAMBOJET
      Posts: 275
      Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 12:34 am

      Revelation wrote:
      JAMBOJET wrote:
      What a strange comment to make when AA hasn't even filed Chptr 11...
      It probably is the right answer for Delta, United, and Southwest's shareholders and employees.
      However, it would also be the right answer for AA, UA, and WN's shareholders and employees for Delta to do your "take one for the team" strategy and just liquidate when they run out of cash eventually in this current environment.
      Or AA, DL, and WN shareholders for UA to "take one for the team".
      Probably just as right of an answer for Delta to retire all their old gas-guzzlers and remove the extra capacity that way while making the air cleaner at the same time.

      Probably the best answer is all carriers to trim a bit and remove unprofitable games like focus cities and hubs where nearly all routes are duplicative and flown at a higher cost than local and international carriers (can someone say SEA?)

      That's not really how these things play out.

      The stronger carrier(s) aren't going to take a haircut so the weaker one(s) survive.

      Their obligation is to their shareholders, not those of other airlines.

      If they volunteer to surrender business so a competitor can survive, they'd be sued pretty much instantly.

      It's pretty clear that tactical "loss leader" flying has disappeared in the current climate.

      Now we are left with "survival of the fittest".

      The weaker one is just going to go through chptr 11 and emerge the new strongest then the others will be the weakest until they restructure as well.

      It’s how this industry seems to work, for better or worse.
       
      TangoandCash
      Posts: 38
      Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:52 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 12:52 am

      AA747123 wrote:
      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


      So you are rooting for 150,000 direct airline jobs to be lost. People with families to support. Yo do also realize that also that each direct airline job supports about 4-5 others, so if airline XYZ with 150,000 employees goes CH7 it could impact up to 500,000 other individuals. If thats what you want you are not a very nice person.


      No, I'm not saying I want 150k people to lose their jobs. But if an airline is going to liquidate, the financials make American the most likely candidate IMHO.

      AA under Dougie isn't a very nice airline.
       
      nwcoflyer
      Posts: 685
      Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2003 7:55 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 1:10 am

      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.

      I’m sure that everyone at AA and it’s retirees share the same sentiment.... not. How about rooting for something positive. Don’t like AA, don’t fly AA! Wishing hundreds of thousands of people dependent upon the company surviving to be unemployed is beyond selfish. I wish you the best of health and luck through this crisis.
       
      User avatar
      vmanAA738
      Posts: 4
      Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:29 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 1:11 am

      Found this tweet about bond traders----they think American is in deep trouble:
      https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/sta ... 9137946633

      The stock also closed today at a price [$9.11/share] not seen since October 2013.

      Very sad for everyone at AA who could be affected.
       
      kalvado
      Posts: 2674
      Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 1:32 am

      nwcoflyer wrote:
      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.

      I’m sure that everyone at AA and it’s retirees share the same sentiment.... not. How about rooting for something positive. Don’t like AA, don’t fly AA! Wishing hundreds of thousands of people dependent upon the company surviving to be unemployed is beyond selfish. I wish you the best of health and luck through this crisis.

      Pretty much everyone agrees that demand for flying is collapsed, it will be weak for a while, and will take long time to recover - if full recovery happens at all, as internet technologies definitely will make some travel redundant.
      That means that cash flow from ticket sales will support fewer jobs.
      That job loss may be somewhat uniformly distributed between airlines, or some may do better than others, to the point some companies wouldn't make it. My bet that job loss would be about the same regardless of how things would work, demand would still be about the same.
      So we're not wishing job loss, we witness the loss.
      What would work better in long term?
      From long term perspective, "too big to fail" is a poisoning approach. Market has to allow failure of existing players and reentry of new ones. And we pretty much agree that there are weaker ones and stronger ones.
       
      325i
      Posts: 125
      Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:01 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 5:16 am

      Greetings Folks,
      Purely speculation on my part but assuming Squire Calhouns response to the reporters question "YES",is indicative of his inside knowledge of an airline that is heavily committed to BA's product, the real answer!
      Cheers,325i
       
      questions
      Posts: 2338
      Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 5:30 am

      325i wrote:
      Greetings Folks,
      Purely speculation on my part but assuming Squire Calhouns response to the reporters question "YES",is indicative of his inside knowledge of an airline that is heavily committed to BA's product, the real answer!
      Cheers,325i


      Is there a point in there?
       
      notdownnlocked
      Posts: 983
      Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2000 1:45 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 5:39 am

      So if AA hits the skids I for one will not shed a tear. I live in the DFW area and I am old enough to remember what they did to Braniff. I had family members working there too. It has just taken karma a long time to return.
       
      LJ
      Posts: 5273
      Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 6:09 am

      AA747123 wrote:
      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


      So you are rooting for 150,000 direct airline jobs to be lost. People with families to support. Yo do also realize that also that each direct airline job supports about 4-5 others, so if airline XYZ with 150,000 employees goes CH7 it could impact up to 500,000 other individuals. If thats what you want you are not a very nice person.


      The question is whether more jobs will be lost when an airline doesn't go down. We can assume that at least 20% - 30% of the 150k will be fired anyway as there is no reason why an airline should have them when demand will be down for the foreseeable future. In addition, should the US government support an airline, then you would get the situation that there is unfair competition as those without government support will have higher costs, not only for labor, but also financing as the market would know that one airline is supported by the government, whilst the others are not. The end result is that the US government will have to support the other airlines as well when they have to file for Chapter 11. In addition, aviation is currently a low margin industry. As such it's not that bad when margins rise to make the entire industry healthier. I know, this is not popular as many view they're entitled to low airfares, but if there is a very big oversupply, the only thing what helps is to take out some of it. Thus when one airline goes bankrupt it may be better in the long run than let everybody stay alive on government support.

      I'm all in favor for some government intervention, especially during extraordinary circumstances. However, one has to face reality that there will be an oversupply of seats for at least a few years. As such some adjustments in supply are needed. If that means that one airline has to go, so be it.

      nwcoflyer wrote:
      I’m sure that everyone at AA and it’s retirees share the same sentiment.... not. How about rooting for something positive. Don’t like AA, don’t fly AA! Wishing hundreds of thousands of people dependent upon the company surviving to be unemployed is beyond selfish. I wish you the best of health and luck through this crisis.


      No they will not share the sentiment, but it's also unrealistic to say that due to the way social security is handled in the US a company cannot go bankrupt. Moreover, it's not selfish when the economics are just not there and the actions of the management are the reason why a company goes bankrupt.
       
      airhansa
      Posts: 349
      Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 6:25 am

      The US is not the type of place to care about flag carriers and national airlines. It's more likely for Americans to think that having a "national airline" detracts from the principles of capitalism and competition. As someone else mentioned earlier, both TWA and Pan-Am fell despite being flag carriers.
       
      questions
      Posts: 2338
      Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 6:36 am

      airhansa wrote:
      The US is not the type of place to care about flag carriers and national airlines. It's more likely for Americans to think that having a "national airline" detracts from the principles of capitalism and competition. As someone else mentioned earlier, both TWA and Pan-Am fell despite being flag carriers.


      TWA and Pan Am were not flag carriers.
       
      ewt340
      Posts: 1212
      Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 6:38 am

      Insertnamehere wrote:
      winginit wrote:
      SEPilot wrote:
      A guarantee of disaster. Government is fundamentally incapable of efficiency; name one thing ANY government runs well. And the ONLY force that leads to efficiency is competition.


      Ah yes, because government run SQ and EK are just known globally for being total shite airlines.


      Those airlines are put relatively at arm's length in terms of government oversight. It's easy to cherry-pick successes, its also easy to cherry-pick failures such as Alitalia, Etihad, and most notably, South African.

      Why should the government be in charge of air travel?


      Because worldwide pandemic. Besides, they could prevent them from selling shares in wallstreet. That would be a good start.
       
      ewt340
      Posts: 1212
      Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 6:40 am

      AA747123 wrote:
      TangoandCash wrote:
      Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


      So you are rooting for 150,000 direct airline jobs to be lost. People with families to support. Yo do also realize that also that each direct airline job supports about 4-5 others, so if airline XYZ with 150,000 employees goes CH7 it could impact up to 500,000 other individuals. If thats what you want you are not a very nice person.


      Yes, that would be good. Since it would happen in few short years anyway. Might as well fasten the process and let other airlines increase their market shares and operations. That way they could hired more people and created more jobs in a company that actually makes profit.
       
      MohawkWeekend
      Posts: 224
      Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

      Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

      Thu May 14, 2020 11:04 am

      David Neeleman's timing is scary good. Thousands of flight trained cockpit crew members willing to work for 60% of the majors, very accommodating leasing companies, airports desperate for service. This is what's going to replace whoever files for bankruptcy.
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        LCDFlight
        Posts: 404
        Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 11:20 am

        MohawkWeekend wrote:
        CNBC at noon had some pretty powerful analysts on. One presented the point that he didn't know why the Govt selected the airlines for such special treatment. He stated that he would have let them file bankruptcy and then have the government provide the DIP financing. His quote was something like -" let the shareholders and the bondholders take it on the chin". How's this theory instead - that the government was not really concerned with airline employees working but with the impact of what is called a "Lehman Bros. Moment". This being the bankruptcy of Lehman Bros causing a run on the banks in 2008. A failure of a several big airlines in March and its ripple effect might have would have caused a massive financial meltdown on top of pandemic. The airline bailout bought time for the Fed and the US Congress to flood liquidity into the market which recovered most of it's losses. The airlines only got the aid because they would have been the first to fail. With the re-opening of the economy, the airlines now stand with all the other industries that have been hurt by COVID-19. Those that have been hurt worse than the others will file bankruptcy. This list will include many retailers, hospitals, real estate reits, a couple of dozen medium sized oil companies, the last of the coal miners and maybe an auto company or steel company. Let's hope they find a vaccine soon.


        Absolutely. There is this narrative that the airlines are somehow special. They are not. A HUGE percentage of the country (edit: US) remains shut down. Moreover, airlines are extremely well versed in extreme boom/bust cycles culminating in periodic Chapter 11 filings. This is routine for airlines (I went thru two). Far more routine for airlines than for hoteliers and restauranteurs, although to be fair, it is routine for them also.

        I don't get the airline bailouts. That's all a political charade, make-believe stuff to me. I only understand measuring the customer demand and sizing the operation to serve it. Given the fragility of airline capital structures, they were destined to go bankrupt in a major downturn, and a whopper arrived right on time.

        This doesn't mean the world has permanently changed. I think in 5 years things will be pretty normal again.
        Last edited by LCDFlight on Thu May 14, 2020 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
         
        LJ
        Posts: 5273
        Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 11:31 am

        LCDFlight wrote:
        I don't get the airline bailouts. That's all a political charade, make-believe stuff to me. I only understand measuring the customer demand and sizing the operation to serve it. Given the fragility of airline capital structures, they were destined to go bankrupt in a major downturn, and a whopper arrived right on time.


        The current bail out makes sense as it would have wiped out most if not all airlines, something you probably don't want as a government. However, that doesn't mean they need to be supported indefinitely.
         
        User avatar
        NWAESC
        Posts: 1456
        Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 11:45 am

        JAMBOJET wrote:
        The weaker one is just going to go through chptr 11 and emerge the new strongest then the others will be the weakest until they restructure as well.

        It’s how this industry seems to work, for better or worse.


        True, but any carrier going to court today is likely going for Ch. 7, not a quick trip through Ch. 11.
        "Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
         
        LCDFlight
        Posts: 404
        Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 11:49 am

        LJ wrote:
        LCDFlight wrote:
        I don't get the airline bailouts. That's all a political charade, make-believe stuff to me. I only understand measuring the customer demand and sizing the operation to serve it. Given the fragility of airline capital structures, they were destined to go bankrupt in a major downturn, and a whopper arrived right on time.


        The current bail out makes sense as it would have wiped out most if not all airlines, something you probably don't want as a government. However, that doesn't mean they need to be supported indefinitely.


        I understand that argument, so let me try to reply.

        1. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are plentiful experienced ATP looking for a job, eager to work.
        2. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are many well maintained fleets looking for an assignment ASAP.
        3. "", there are expert airline HQ staff ready to set up an airline.
        4. New airlines can be set up in weeks, if there is demand going unserved.
        5. During liquidation, the needed regulatory pieces would be available for sale - maintenance certificates, training, etc.

        There are many things to worry about, but insufficient airline capacity is not something the US ever needs to worry about. People who worry about that don't understand.
         
        airhansa
        Posts: 349
        Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 11:56 am

        The difference between bailing out a company in normal financial downturns (or any sort of company collapse) and the current situation, is that the current situation involves government-mandated lockdowns against which an individual might be able to successfully sue against for financial compensation.
         
        Galore
        Posts: 10
        Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:43 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 12:01 pm

        AA747123 wrote:
        TangoandCash wrote:
        Please let it be AA, please let it be AA. And not just a Ch 11 shake and bake, make it a Ch 7 liquidation. Too much debt, not enough cash. Dougie Parker's hubris coming home to rest, took a good airline and turned it into low cost carrier service with legacy carrier prices.


        So you are rooting for 150,000 direct airline jobs to be lost. People with families to support. Yo do also realize that also that each direct airline job supports about 4-5 others, so if airline XYZ with 150,000 employees goes CH7 it could impact up to 500,000 other individuals. If thats what you want you are not a very nice person.


        I think the problem is that sympathy for the potentially affected is going to be tough to expect from people who have been treated badly by the customer facing employees. And don’t pretend that their customer service is good, please.

        My own experience with AA (and all US based airlines) is poor as well.

        Ever since 9-11, the attitude is “customer antagonistic”. Combined with the preposterous strategy of expanding LCC standards (that may be tolerable for a 2 hour domestic flight) to 15 hour long flights and you may understand a bit better why some don’t care much if this airline goes under. And no, sometimes flying is not by choice but demanded by one’s employer. So if AA goes out of business, it’s not necessarily a problem for the individual customer but for their employer. I personally will never fly long haul on a US carrier again because coach is horrible and business/first way overpriced.
         
        MohawkWeekend
        Posts: 224
        Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

        Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

        Thu May 14, 2020 12:04 pm

        Thats a two edge sword - wait till the lawyers sue Airlines on behalf of the estates of workers who got ill and died because of COVID. The Govt needs to put in blanket immunity for everyone including local, state and Federal government.
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          JAMBOJET
          Posts: 275
          Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

          Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

          Thu May 14, 2020 12:34 pm

          NWAESC wrote:
          JAMBOJET wrote:
          The weaker one is just going to go through chptr 11 and emerge the new strongest then the others will be the weakest until they restructure as well.

          It’s how this industry seems to work, for better or worse.


          True, but any carrier going to court today is likely going for Ch. 7, not a quick trip through Ch. 11.

          Perhaps. I don't have a crystal ball.
          However, history would suggest any and all carriers enter Chpt 11 first with plenty of cash and a general plan for how to emerge from it ($xxB in savings, etc). That plan really isn't that hard to see what any airline would do right now. Same as they've done before: get out of bad fleet agreements. Lower labor costs in some way. Freeze pensions. Figure out the right places to have real estate. Restructure bad debt. That plan really isn't that difficult to see as a template in the future. There are so many ways any airline could save a lot of money right now in Chapter 11 even as they hemorrhage cash in May.

          Every US airline made money before this pandemic. Some made significantly more. Some made less. That variance between carriers isn't really any different than at any point in history. It wasn't that long ago that Delta was the money-losing scapegoat of the industry and went through bankruptcy as AA threw a party in the Delta DFW terminal.

          Every airline has cash thanks to the bailout and the bailout doesn't prevent any airline from entering Chptr 11 tomorrow, if needed, with that cash.

          Demand is obviously less in May. People are freaked out. But no one should look at May and extrapolate a new normal. Demand will recover to some percent of the previous normal and be back to some new normal that airlines will need to adjust to. Whatever that new normal is, each carrier will need to adjust to it. If AA or UA go through Chptr 11 first, it will likely mean Delta has to make some tough choices eventually as they start to become the least profitable vs their competitors.
          Last edited by JAMBOJET on Thu May 14, 2020 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
           
          JAMBOJET
          Posts: 275
          Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

          Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

          Thu May 14, 2020 12:45 pm

          LCDFlight wrote:
          LJ wrote:
          LCDFlight wrote:
          I don't get the airline bailouts. That's all a political charade, make-believe stuff to me. I only understand measuring the customer demand and sizing the operation to serve it. Given the fragility of airline capital structures, they were destined to go bankrupt in a major downturn, and a whopper arrived right on time.


          The current bail out makes sense as it would have wiped out most if not all airlines, something you probably don't want as a government. However, that doesn't mean they need to be supported indefinitely.


          I understand that argument, so let me try to reply.

          1. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are plentiful experienced ATP looking for a job, eager to work.
          2. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are many well maintained fleets looking for an assignment ASAP.
          3. "", there are expert airline HQ staff ready to set up an airline.
          4. New airlines can be set up in weeks, if there is demand going unserved.
          5. During liquidation, the needed regulatory pieces would be available for sale - maintenance certificates, training, etc.

          There are many things to worry about, but insufficient airline capacity is not something the US ever needs to worry about. People who worry about that don't understand.

          I'd have to guess you've never been involved in a logistics Company. They aren't as simple to start up, especially in an extremely regulated industry, as you suggest. We aren't talking about a new restaurant in Hell's Kitchen or West Loop. Take someone like David Neeleman setting up Breeze/Moxy. He's started new airlines all over the world and yet didn't even publicly bring up Moxy until June, 2018 and it's still not off the ground (will it ever?). There are plenty of used aircraft and failing airlines around the world where he could've had aircraft tomorrow if it was as simple as you suggest.
          I generally don't like federal bailouts. However, what you miss is that all of the US airlines actually had a way to survive with their piles of billions of cash: Shut down the infrastructure of the US and quit all flying altogether and lay off everyone temporarily. However, the federal government didn't like that option and came up with a way to prevent that.
          Like it or not, the US has a critical infrastructure that is run by the private sector that had the full legal ability to shut down the US' infrastructure to survive the government-mandated shutdown.
           
          ShinyAndChrome
          Posts: 272
          Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

          Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

          Thu May 14, 2020 12:50 pm

          LCDFlight wrote:
          LJ wrote:
          LCDFlight wrote:
          I don't get the airline bailouts. That's all a political charade, make-believe stuff to me. I only understand measuring the customer demand and sizing the operation to serve it. Given the fragility of airline capital structures, they were destined to go bankrupt in a major downturn, and a whopper arrived right on time.


          The current bail out makes sense as it would have wiped out most if not all airlines, something you probably don't want as a government. However, that doesn't mean they need to be supported indefinitely.


          I understand that argument, so let me try to reply.

          1. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are plentiful experienced ATP looking for a job, eager to work.
          2. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are many well maintained fleets looking for an assignment ASAP.
          3. "", there are expert airline HQ staff ready to set up an airline.
          4. New airlines can be set up in weeks, if there is demand going unserved.
          5. During liquidation, the needed regulatory pieces would be available for sale - maintenance certificates, training, etc.

          There are many things to worry about, but insufficient airline capacity is not something the US ever needs to worry about. People who worry about that don't understand.


          Weeks? Are you serious? An airline isn't like an ice cream sundae. You can't just expect to mix labor and aircraft together and have it come out instantly. Between setting up reservations and IT infrastructure, developing training and operational protocols, maintenance audits, distribution contracts, let alone all of the legal and regulatory paperwork, starting an airline easily takes well over a year, closer to two or three. So if the entire industry collectively went bust, as it would have absent CARES, you'd be looking at the US not having domestic air service for a number of years at least. And that's assuming that anyone would want to invest in an airline startup right now when the bottom has fallen out of the rest of the economy.
          Last edited by ShinyAndChrome on Thu May 14, 2020 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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