JAMBOJET wrote:LCDFlight wrote:LJ wrote:
The current bail out makes sense as it would have wiped out most if not all airlines, something you probably don't want as a government. However, that doesn't mean they need to be supported indefinitely.
I understand that argument, so let me try to reply.
1. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are plentiful experienced ATP looking for a job, eager to work.
2. If all Big 4 airlines liquidate, there are many well maintained fleets looking for an assignment ASAP.
3. "", there are expert airline HQ staff ready to set up an airline.
4. New airlines can be set up in weeks, if there is demand going unserved.
5. During liquidation, the needed regulatory pieces would be available for sale - maintenance certificates, training, etc.
There are many things to worry about, but insufficient airline capacity is not something the US ever needs to worry about. People who worry about that don't understand.
I'd have to guess you've never been involved in a logistics Company. They aren't as simple to start up, especially in an extremely regulated industry, as you suggest. We aren't talking about a new restaurant in Hell's Kitchen or West Loop. Take someone like David Neeleman setting up Breeze/Moxy. He's started new airlines all over the world and yet didn't even publicly bring up Moxy until June, 2018 and it's still not off the ground (will it ever?). There are plenty of used aircraft and failing airlines around the world where he could've had aircraft tomorrow if it was as simple as you suggest.
I generally don't like federal bailouts. However, what you miss is that all of the US airlines actually had a way to survive with their piles of billions of cash: Shut down the infrastructure of the US and quit all flying altogether and lay off everyone temporarily. However, the federal government didn't like that option and came up with a way to prevent that.
Like it or not, the US has a critical infrastructure that is run by the private sector that had the full legal ability to shut down the US' infrastructure to survive the government-mandated shutdown.
Nope, this is a smokescreen. Sure, I have been involved in airlines, enough to know how resilient and flexible they are. They can be in Chapter 11 today, eject labor and financing deals this afternoon and re-size to serve the existing market by tomorrow morning. No legal flight certificates lapse at all. We saw this happen almost a dozen times in recent years.
I understand this was a chaotic situation where it seemed like maybe we need to bail various things out. I even agree that prohibiting international flying was really rough, so rough that some bailout is fair.
We can expect much more of those communications and those narratives in the coming months and years. Tell a nice story and get $50 billion? Anticipate long lines of storytellers.
Looking closely, the current problem is too MUCH capacity, not too little capacity.