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catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:46 pm

bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:

TSA numbers also show a steady increase of folks returning week over week as well.


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:48 pm

bigb wrote:
There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.


Average loads are up, but it does not mean demand is up.

May is the first true month with airlines running planned limited Covid-19 schedules (March & April where largely full of cancellations). Also airlines are operating some of their smallest equipment on routes.

For example at United it was mention in a townhall with a 90% schedule reduction this month 80% of flights are booked 50% or less, but about 10% are booked at 70%+ of customers which makes avoiding seating customers next to each other difficult. Similarly United has parked many larger aircraft and instead the smaller A319 and 737-700 are the two most frequently used models in the planned June schedule as an example.
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CRJ5000
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:55 pm

bigb wrote:

There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.


At the end of March carriers were flying nearly full schedules as the major drawdowns happened in April and even more so in May.
Now that there are is only a fraction of the capacity that there was in March, naturally those flights will be more crowded as there are significantly less available seats. Loads would still be abysmal if airlines were still flying their March schedules. Even 100% load factors will absolutely bleed money until carriers are operating a majority of their regular schedule.
It's nice that the TSA daily pax numbers are trending up, but let's not kid ourselves... We're still only at 10% of what we were a year ago.
Last edited by CRJ5000 on Fri May 15, 2020 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
32andBelow
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:55 pm

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
CRJ5000
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:59 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Though there is a bit of a trend up, after quickly looking through the different dates, I couldn't find a single day where we even reached 10% of last years numbers.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:12 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:

TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Though there is a bit of a trend up, after quickly looking through the different dates, I couldn't find a single day where we even reached 10% of last years numbers.


10% of 2019 levels will come soon based on the current trends. Each day has been up (generally 20-25%, some higher), in the week over week comparison. Compare Thursday to last Thursday, Wednesday to last Wednesday, etc. The trend is in the right direction, for sure, but still a much shallower slope than the drop off. My data predicts over 260k traveling today, which will be right around 10% of 2019 numbers.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:12 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Have they been steady in the -90s or no?
 
LCDFlight
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:14 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Very nice info. It looks like 10-20% increases week over week for 2 weeks. Even seeing a sustained 5% weekly increase would be amazing. By my calculation, 5% weekly increase would be a return to normal in 1 year. Right now, it seems very optimistic.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:14 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I put the data into a spreadsheet and found that 5/8 to 5/14 is up +25% from 5/1 to 5/7.

I also found that the week of 5/8 to 5/14 of 2020 flew only 8% of the passengers of the same week in 2019.

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JoseSalazar
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:17 pm

Date 2020 2019 WoW WoW % change
5/14/20 234,928 2,611,324 44,065 23.1%
5/13/20 176,667 2,343,675 36,258 25.8%
5/12/20 163,205 2,191,387 32,604 25.0%
5/11/20 215,645 2,512,315 51,953 31.7%
5/10/20 200,815 2,419,114 30,561 18.0%
5/9/20 169,580 1,985,942 35,319 26.3%
5/8/20 215,444 2,602,631 43,881 25.6%
5/7/20 190,863 2,555,342 36,168 23.4%
5/6/20 140,409 2,270,662 20,780 17.4%
5/5/20 130,601 2,106,597 19,688 17.8%
5/4/20 163,692 2,470,969 43,838 36.6%
5/3/20 170,254 2,512,598 41,379 32.1%
5/2/20 134,261 1,968,278 19,802 17.3%
5/1/20 171,563 2,546,029 48,099 39.0%
4/30/20 154,695 2,499,461 43,068 38.6%
4/29/20 119,629 2,256,442 20,661 20.9%
4/28/20 110,913 2,102,068 18,054 19.4%
4/27/20 119,854 2,412,770 20,510 20.6%
4/26/20 128,875 2,506,809 23,493 22.3%
4/25/20 114,459 1,990,464 17,223 17.7%
4/24/20 123,464 2,521,897 17,079 16.1%
4/23/20 111,627 2,526,961 16,542 17.4%
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:18 pm

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

Searching Bing, with "TSA numbers" found this:

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I added days of the week for reference and my own comments in parenthesis ():

Date Total Traveler Throughput Total Traveler Throughput
(1 Year Ago - Same Weekday)
5/14/2020 234,928 2,611,324 (Thursday)
5/13/2020 176,667 2,343,675 (Wednesday)
5/12/2020 163,205 2,191,387 (Tuesday, a normal slow day)
5/11/2020 215,645 2,512,315 (Monday, a normally busy day)
5/10/2020 200,815 2,419,114 (Sunday, normally the busiest, but for some reason not this 2019 Sunday)
5/9/2020 169,580 1,985,942 (Saturday)
5/8/2020 215,444 2,602,631 (Friday, a busy day)
5/7/2020 190,863 2,555,342 (Thursday)
5/6/2020 140,409 2,270,662 (Wednesday)
5/5/2020 130,601 2,106,597 (Tuesday, again normally slow)
5/4/2020 163,692 2,470,969 (Monday, again normally busy)
5/3/2020 170,254 2,512,598 (Sunday, which is almost the busiest)
5/2/2020 134,261 1,968,278 (Saturday, this one 2019 was unusually slow)
5/1/2020 171,563 2,546,029 (Friday)
4/30/2020 154,695 2,499,461 (Thursday)
4/29/2020 119,629 2,256,442 (Wednesday)
4/28/2020 110,913 2,102,068 (Tuesday)
4/27/2020 119,854 2,412,770 (Monday)
4/26/2020 128,875 2,506,809 (Sunday)
4/25/2020 114,459 1,990,464 (Saturday)
4/24/2020 123,464 2,521,897 (Friday)
4/23/2020 111,627 2,526,961 (Thursday)
4/22/2020 98,968 2,254,209 (Wednesday)
4/21/2020 92,859 2,227,475 (Tuesday)
4/20/2020 99,344 2,594,171 (Monday)
4/19/2020 105,382 2,356,802 (Sunday)
4/18/2020 97,236 1,988,205 (Saturday)
4/17/2020 106,385 2,457,133 (Friday)
4/16/2020 95,085 2,616,158 (Thursday)
4/15/2020 90,784 2,317,381 (Wednesday)
4/14/2020 87,534 2,208,688 (Having this Tuesday the bottom makes since, low travel day on the least popular day to travel, and not much spring break circa 2020 by this time...)


My :twocents: is traffic went from < 5% of prior traffic up to 10%. So actually the data supports both sides of the argument. These are scary numbers.

Before data varied 2 to 2.6 (ish) million in 2019, depending on the workday. Please recall Sunday April 21 was Easter last year and April 12th this year, so the schedules have a year to year seasonal variation (spring break) 2020 vs. 2019.


Low 233k (doing Friday to Thursday just because that is when the data today expires):
4/14 87k (low) to 106k (high for week)
4/17 to 4/23 92k to 111k
4/24 to 4/30 100k to 154k
5/1 to 5/8 134k to 190k

So a obvious growth trend.


So we are seeing growth, not great growth.
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NWAESC
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:20 pm

There is another user on here updating a Google Doc with daily totals, Week over Week comps and more. It's been really useful. The thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445801
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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Rookie87
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 5:23 pm

DL747400 wrote:
There were furloughs at DL following 9/11. All but the most oblivious members of the population know that the current crisis is many times worse than 9/11 ever was. You can bet there will be significant furloughs at DL later this year and into 2021, just as there will be at most carriers. Anyone who believes otherwise is naive and ill-informed.


You're comparing a terrorist attack which caused fear around the world in regards to getting on a plane vs a global pandemic where people are stuck at home itching to get out and continue living. Just because you're comfy on your couch doesn't mean everyone is. A cut down yes, comparable to 9/11? highly doubt it. No one will be scared to get on a plane because it could potentially be flown into a building.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:34 pm

NWAESC wrote:
There is another user on here updating a Google Doc with daily totals, Week over Week comps and more. It's been really useful. The thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445801

Thanks for the pointer. My data was done a bit differently. They compare one day to the day 365 days earlier. I am comparing this week to the week 365 days earlier. I'm trying to smooth out the normal fluxuations within a week. We're getting similar results.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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32andBelow
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 5:48 pm

It was really hard to get enough pilots right before this. I think some major airlines are going to be very cautious releasing pilots until they absolutely have to.

The cargo guys are gonna snap a lot of these guys up and it could be hard to get them back.
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:50 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
bigb wrote:

There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.

It's nice that the TSA daily pax numbers are trending up, but let's not kid ourselves... We're still only at 10% of what we were a year ago.


On the road to recovery you have to start somewhere, starting on the low end. Anything above near zero is an improvement right now. Nobody is expecting it to snap back to 2019 overnight. But travel ticking up slightly as some states take baby steps toward partial reopenings seems encouraging to me.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
KMCOFlyer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 6:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
Made to stay at quarantine hotel till covid-19 tests results were in. If the test indicated he had it, straight to the hospital via ambulance. If it did not, fourteen day self quarantine with wrist bracelet and monitoring app running on his phone, with stiff penalties for violating quarantine.


Why would they be immediately sent to the hospital just because of a positive test result for COVID-19 (especially if they have mild or no symptoms)? Shouldn’t they be saving the hospitals capacity for those who have severe symptoms instead of putting people with no symptoms into the hospital?
 
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STT757
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 6:46 pm

Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?
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jetblastdubai
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 7:48 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
That's an incredibly narrow point of view. How about I flip it and say unions protect good employees from bad management? Is it possible that there are bad eggs in management as well as rank and file workers? Yes. But to throw this view out that unions are bad doesn't factor in what led to them - underhanded dealing, theft, and gross negligence by many members of management - across all airlines and even industries.


I was a union member for years so I can speak from experience.

For all the protections and added benefits unions provide for members, their public image gets trashed every time any union pulls under-handed crap that is designed to financially hurt their employers and shareholders when it's time to negotiate a new contract. In many cases, it is also designed to tarnish public trust in the company which will hurt the bottom line and shareholders in the long term as well.

Recall the summer of 2000 and the actions by SOME United pilots that took the "hints" from the MEC to sabotage the airline's on-time performance by intentionally trying to make flights 16 minutes late. Slow taxi speeds caused flights to miss ATC slot times, made passenger connections impossible resulting in extra workload for CSRs and generally pissed off everyone that had to work around the selfish actions of a few employees that were not going to be happy until they "choked the golden goose". (google Capt.Rick Dubinsky) http://www.airlineforums.com/threads/so ... ance.2342/

In addition to the illegal work slowdown (good faith bargaining) SOME pilots displayed buttons that said "Sweet 16" or "W.O.E. in public in front of passengers and other workers. Sweet 16 was the phrase used to make every flight exactly 16 minutes late so the late flight would be reflect in the DOT on-time data base. Exactly 16 minutes late was a goal to show that the delay was deliberate and not just randomly 16 or 28 minutes late etc. "W.O.E." was short for " withdrawal of enthusiasm. You can read into that what you want but it sure didn't reflect a positive work ethic.

More recently, there were AFA members that walked off the 744 from SFO to HKG when someone had written "bye bye" in the soot on the APU cowling. Even after every other department at UA certified that the plane was safe and airworthy (including pilots, mechanics and security) the AFA members refused to work the trip and eventually the flight canceled causing substantial disruptions for passengers, loads of additional work for the ground personnel as well and cost the company a lot of $ and bad press. AFA was in negotiations at the time...coincidence???

In the late 80s or early 90s, some C90 NATCA members did a work slowdown for a while and gave the excuse of "bad tailwinds" for the excessive spacing on final. I was there at the time and can't even recall what the issue was. We were a Federal union and pay isn't even negotiable. Pure power play to get something without any risk of disciplinary action.

There are good employees and there are bad employees in every line of work. There are also good employees that consciously choose to perform poorly, with few consequences, because of union protection.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 8:23 pm

jetblastdubai wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
That's an incredibly narrow point of view. How about I flip it and say unions protect good employees from bad management? Is it possible that there are bad eggs in management as well as rank and file workers? Yes. But to throw this view out that unions are bad doesn't factor in what led to them - underhanded dealing, theft, and gross negligence by many members of management - across all airlines and even industries.


I was a union member for years so I can speak from experience.

For all the protections and added benefits unions provide for members, their public image gets trashed every time any union pulls under-handed crap that is designed to financially hurt their employers and shareholders when it's time to negotiate a new contract. In many cases, it is also designed to tarnish public trust in the company which will hurt the bottom line and shareholders in the long term as well.

Recall the summer of 2000 and the actions by SOME United pilots that took the "hints" from the MEC to sabotage the airline's on-time performance by intentionally trying to make flights 16 minutes late. Slow taxi speeds caused flights to miss ATC slot times, made passenger connections impossible resulting in extra workload for CSRs and generally pissed off everyone that had to work around the selfish actions of a few employees that were not going to be happy until they "choked the golden goose". (google Capt.Rick Dubinsky) http://www.airlineforums.com/threads/so ... ance.2342/

In addition to the illegal work slowdown (good faith bargaining) SOME pilots displayed buttons that said "Sweet 16" or "W.O.E. in public in front of passengers and other workers. Sweet 16 was the phrase used to make every flight exactly 16 minutes late so the late flight would be reflect in the DOT on-time data base. Exactly 16 minutes late was a goal to show that the delay was deliberate and not just randomly 16 or 28 minutes late etc. "W.O.E." was short for " withdrawal of enthusiasm. You can read into that what you want but it sure didn't reflect a positive work ethic.

More recently, there were AFA members that walked off the 744 from SFO to HKG when someone had written "bye bye" in the soot on the APU cowling. Even after every other department at UA certified that the plane was safe and airworthy (including pilots, mechanics and security) the AFA members refused to work the trip and eventually the flight canceled causing substantial disruptions for passengers, loads of additional work for the ground personnel as well and cost the company a lot of $ and bad press. AFA was in negotiations at the time...coincidence???

In the late 80s or early 90s, some C90 NATCA members did a work slowdown for a while and gave the excuse of "bad tailwinds" for the excessive spacing on final. I was there at the time and can't even recall what the issue was. We were a Federal union and pay isn't even negotiable. Pure power play to get something without any risk of disciplinary action.

There are good employees and there are bad employees in every line of work. There are also good employees that consciously choose to perform poorly, with few consequences, because of union protection.


I never said a union is always honest - but it seems companies can do no wrong, yet unions can do no right? Is it underhanded dealing for United to beg on its hands and knees to the American taxpayer for $5 billion in free money, promising taxpayers and employees that this will protect its workers until October 1, and as soon as the money is in the bank they threaten to cut all employees earnings by 25-50%? People are ignoring the fact that the company just lied to the face of every American taxpayer to get billions of dollars. That is shady dealing and completely within expectations for corporate America in general. That is why we have a union. If that were the other way around, United would have walked every union member off of its property. It's okay for the company to bend the rules (and in this case the law) for their favor, but anytime it is the other way around people bark at the unions.
 
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 8:35 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
bigb wrote:

That again would be against the collective bargaining agreement in its entirety.

Which again is a further proof that unions protect the bad employees, to the detriment of the good ones.
Thank you, you just proved my point.


That's an incredibly narrow point of view. How about I flip it and say unions protect good employees from bad management? Is it possible that there are bad eggs in management as well as rank and file workers? Yes. But to throw this view out that unions are bad doesn't factor in what led to them - underhanded dealing, theft, and gross negligence by many members of management - across all airlines and even industries.


There was a saying at Northwest, he was made a management employee because as a mechanic he could not fix a damn thing." I had to clean up the language some. Also don't forget some of these dawgs were always buttering up to management and that helped them get a management position. Some who were so inept eventually where told to turn in their badge, clean out their desk and walked off the property. It was called "promoted out the door." :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
CRJ5000
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 9:18 pm

32andBelow wrote:
It was really hard to get enough pilots right before this. I think some major airlines are going to be very cautious releasing pilots until they absolutely have to.

The cargo guys are gonna snap a lot of these guys up and it could be hard to get them back.


I know the "pilot shortage" was a hot topic before this, but I can attest that absolutely positively no major airline had a shortage of good candidates at any time before this, and certainly won't in the immediate future afterwards. Quite the opposite, actually. The topic has come up constantly on most regional jumpseats I've been on in the past few years... How many applications the pilots have in and where, how many times they've tried to get into DL/UA/AA/WN and even B6/AS/NK/F9/G4 whom are all still competitive and lucrative. Some of these guys are over 5000 hours, multiple ratings, tons of PIC time, and are great pilots. They've been waiting years for the call. If there was any shortage currently whatsoever, they would have been scooped up long ago. Is the pilot shortage a real thing in the future - yeah, quite possibly. Could airlines find qualified pilots prior to Covid? Absolutely. Will they be able to find them after Covid? Yes, even more so than before.
No major airline is afraid of not being able to find pilots after this.
 
winginit
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 9:24 pm

cbphoto wrote:
I’m not arguing that some stations personal might get cut, but they work for many different companies, so they are not being technically cut by Allegiant. So far Allegiant as an entity has not announced any lay offs, in any department. And just because allegiant is cutting some stations positions, doesn’t mean those individuals will not get other temporary jobs in their own company.


I'm sorry, but it's short sighted to make the blanket claim that G4 isn't going to make any cuts. They've just posted their first quarterly loss, they're burning through $2M every day, and their stock has cratered just like all other airlines. Yes, they obviously operate a different business model than the majors that allows for more schedule flexibility, and yes, they run a conservative balance sheet, but I will be genuinely shocked if come 2021 they haven't laid anyone off.
 
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Re: UA planning layoffs but not AA, DL etc..?

Fri May 15, 2020 11:34 pm

I think this is more than likely UA management digging at AFA Union Chief Sara Nelson.
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dcajet
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Air Canada to lay off 20,000 workers

Sat May 16, 2020 12:57 am

Effective June 7, the layoffs will affect more than half of the company's 38,000 employees, the airline said.

In a memo sent to all employees on Friday that was obtained by CBC News, Air Canada said the move comes after a "fundamental review of what we must do to successfully emerge from this crisis and begin rebuilding our airline."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... -1.5572596
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
MIflyer12
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Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:01 am

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/air-can ... -1.4941791

MONTREAL -- Air Canada plans to lay off at least 20,000 employees as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the airline industry.

Effective June 7, the layoffs will impact more than half of the company's 38,000 employees, it said.

At a minimum, layoffs will reach 19,000 -- half of the current payroll -- and could go as high as 22,800.

To minimize the number of layoffs, Air Canada will ask flight attendants to slash their schedules, go on leave for up to two years or resign with travel privileges, according to an internal bulletin to members from the Canadian Union of Public Employees sent out Thursday night and obtained by The Canadian Press.

Though traffic is expected to pick up somewhat before year's end, Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu said last week the recovery will be slow, with at least three years of subpar earnings.


That is a very big fraction of the total work force. Regrets to all. It will be interesting to see how they handle pilots given displacement/retraining rules.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:06 am

How many employees do they have?
 
ACA772LR
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:08 am

jfklganyc wrote:
How many employees do they have?


38,000, so this is roughly 60% of employees
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:28 am

When an airline is flying at only 5 percent of capacity and burning through 22 million a day, there is not much else they can do. Labor is their largest expenditure.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:43 am

Cripes almighty I feel for these AC workers. I can't imagine how chaotic it would be, laying off half your workforce with less than a month's notice.

There may be some differences in terminology between Canada and the US but when the article says layoff, is it a full severance or something closer like a furlough where people have first right to come back if things improve?
 
ACA772LR
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:47 am

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Cripes almighty I feel for these AC workers. I can't imagine how chaotic it would be, laying off half your workforce with less than a month's notice.

There may be some differences in terminology between Canada and the US but when the article says layoff, is it a full severance or something closer like a furlough where people have first right to come back if things improve?


I highly doubt they were given less than a months notice. I believe it’s closer to a furlough with rights to come back according to seniority.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 1:54 am

STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... S28M/edit# has the TSA data in table and graph form.

Since it's national data it may not be a one day phenomena as you suggest.

For me, the 'stuff has hit the fan' day was the day the NBA player got sick and they suspended play.

Apparently that was 3/11/2020.

The TSA suggests the data was in free fall for the whole month of March.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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FlyingElvii
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:54 am

September 30th in the US will be far worse, I fear.
 
ACA772LR
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 1:56 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
September 30th in the US will be far worse, I fear.


This is 60% of AC’s workforce, a pretty huge sobering percentage its sad all around everywhere
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 2:07 am

Revelation wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... S28M/edit# has the TSA data in table and graph form.

Since it's national data it may not be a one day phenomena as you suggest.

For me, the 'stuff has hit the fan' day was the day the NBA player got sick and they suspended play.

Apparently that was 3/11/2020.

The TSA suggests the data was in free fall for the whole month of March.


3/11 was also when the President implemented the Europe restrictions and addressed the nation.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 2:53 am

Asia started falling off at the start of Jan when they pulled down China flying.

Feb saw a declining amount of TPAC travel but domestic held steady.

First week of March was relatively normal but we didn’t know which way things were going to go. TATL starting falling off since that’s when it was getting bad in Italy.

Week of March 9th was when got weird in the US and the last real quasi normal week of domestic travel and business.
3/11 was the first SHTF day in the US when we saw the sport seasons suspended, college campuses close,
Companies throw up immediate travel bans, and stuff started closing fast.
Week of 3/16 Is when we basically went into work from home mode and all non essential stuff shutting down.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 3:04 am

ACA772LR wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Cripes almighty I feel for these AC workers. I can't imagine how chaotic it would be, laying off half your workforce with less than a month's notice.

There may be some differences in terminology between Canada and the US but when the article says layoff, is it a full severance or something closer like a furlough where people have first right to come back if things improve?


I highly doubt they were given less than a months notice. I believe it’s closer to a furlough with rights to come back according to seniority.


Just going off the article. Maybe there was internal communication earlier on to that effect but I'd be surprised if it was communicated to workers beforehand and didn't get leaked shortly after.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 3:16 am

ACA772LR wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
ACA772LR wrote:

I highly doubt they were given less than a months notice. I believe it’s closer to a furlough with rights to come back according to seniority.


Just going off the article. Maybe there was internal communication earlier on to that effect but I'd be surprised if it was communicated to workers beforehand and didn't get leaked shortly after.


Respectfully, I ask why you’d be surprised if it was communicated beforehand? Just want to understand your position


I wouldn't be surprised if workers heard of their individual departments' more specific staffing plans before this company wide meno. I guess I would've just expected that the media would have gotten a hold of some of that communication shortly afterwards, as happened with the wider memo.
 
BAorAB
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 3:31 am

It'll be no difference in the US come September 30th! Canadians are managing it better, facing the realities early, as is BA. It'll be interested to see what the pilot resolution will be, that's undoubtedly the cash drainer from the salary pool. Tough times. A reality check for the Industry. Goodbye to $100K senior cabin crew at places like UA, AA, BA and QF!
 
n9801f
Posts: 229
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 3:37 am

lightsaber wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

Searching Bing, with "TSA numbers" found this:

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I added days of the week for reference and my own comments in parenthesis ():

Date Total Traveler Throughput Total Traveler Throughput
(1 Year Ago - Same Weekday)
5/14/2020 234,928 2,611,324 (Thursday)
5/13/2020 176,667 2,343,675 (Wednesday)
5/12/2020 163,205 2,191,387 (Tuesday, a normal slow day)
5/11/2020 215,645 2,512,315 (Monday, a normally busy day)
5/10/2020 200,815 2,419,114 (Sunday, normally the busiest, but for some reason not this 2019 Sunday)
5/9/2020 169,580 1,985,942 (Saturday)
5/8/2020 215,444 2,602,631 (Friday, a busy day)
5/7/2020 190,863 2,555,342 (Thursday)
5/6/2020 140,409 2,270,662 (Wednesday)
5/5/2020 130,601 2,106,597 (Tuesday, again normally slow)
5/4/2020 163,692 2,470,969 (Monday, again normally busy)
5/3/2020 170,254 2,512,598 (Sunday, which is almost the busiest)
5/2/2020 134,261 1,968,278 (Saturday, this one 2019 was unusually slow)
5/1/2020 171,563 2,546,029 (Friday)
4/30/2020 154,695 2,499,461 (Thursday)
4/29/2020 119,629 2,256,442 (Wednesday)
4/28/2020 110,913 2,102,068 (Tuesday)
4/27/2020 119,854 2,412,770 (Monday)
4/26/2020 128,875 2,506,809 (Sunday)
4/25/2020 114,459 1,990,464 (Saturday)
4/24/2020 123,464 2,521,897 (Friday)
4/23/2020 111,627 2,526,961 (Thursday)
4/22/2020 98,968 2,254,209 (Wednesday)
4/21/2020 92,859 2,227,475 (Tuesday)
4/20/2020 99,344 2,594,171 (Monday)
4/19/2020 105,382 2,356,802 (Sunday)
4/18/2020 97,236 1,988,205 (Saturday)
4/17/2020 106,385 2,457,133 (Friday)
4/16/2020 95,085 2,616,158 (Thursday)
4/15/2020 90,784 2,317,381 (Wednesday)
4/14/2020 87,534 2,208,688 (Having this Tuesday the bottom makes since, low travel day on the least popular day to travel, and not much spring break circa 2020 by this time...)


My :twocents: is traffic went from < 5% of prior traffic up to 10%. So actually the data supports both sides of the argument. These are scary numbers.

Before data varied 2 to 2.6 (ish) million in 2019, depending on the workday. Please recall Sunday April 21 was Easter last year and April 12th this year, so the schedules have a year to year seasonal variation (spring break) 2020 vs. 2019.


Low 233k (doing Friday to Thursday just because that is when the data today expires):
4/14 87k (low) to 106k (high for week)
4/17 to 4/23 92k to 111k
4/24 to 4/30 100k to 154k
5/1 to 5/8 134k to 190k

So a obvious growth trend.


So we are seeing growth, not great growth.
Lightsaber


The way you show this is the most meaningful comparison, IMO: year-over-year, same day of week. E.G. compare Friday 5/15/20 to 5/17/19.

This type of comparison removes the effect of seasonality (traffic in the Northern Hemisphere is growing each week as it ramps up to summer) and also day-of-week variation (Fridays are usually stronger than Tuesdays, etc.)

Just be careful with holidays like Easter or (in US) July 4 that shift dates or weekdays each year.
 
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exFWAOONW
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 3:43 am

Things will bounce back eventually. I know they want to stop the bleeding, but this seems like overkill for a short term issue. Were they bloated and needed to shrink before and the downturn is a convenient excuse?
Is just me, or is flying not as much fun anymore?
 
txkf2010
Posts: 206
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 3:52 am

They definitely weren’t bloated. They were nearly 1000 pilots short before all of this
 
codyul
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 3:58 am

ACA772LR wrote:
I highly doubt they were given less than a months notice. I believe it’s closer to a furlough with rights to come back according to seniority.

I still haven't received any official notice but the writing is on the wall at my seniority. And it's less than a month away for June 7th...
I think they were hoping for a quicker bounce back. Goal posts being moved daily I suspect.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
tjerome
Posts: 346
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 4:18 am

STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?


I'd say more around March 11th, that's when the international travel restrictions were announced and the NBA season was suspended. Things I believe definitely started to go down around late February but the falling off a cliff happened that week IMO.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 7:30 am

In the early stages of such a massive change in staffing, the company will start with the least seniority getting shown the door as the early retirement / voluntary separations are worked out. Often there is a 2 or 3 year probationary period where that entire group needs to be gone before any others are touched..

DL, even with the bailout is paying 20% of the wages of those retained thru the summer. They will want to be dropping any now that they are sure will be gone way before then to save cash. They are doing projections at the worst, and at a couple of other mid points.,but talking the worst. I would guess 1,500 or so will be gone shortly, they will also hope that several thousand take voluntary packages. After a few months they will know if the number needs to be 4,000 or 7,000.

It is quite possible the scope clause will be adjusted - but bringing more RJ flying back into mainline, but at a new lower agreed salary. That would preserve union jobs at the expense of all of the pilots that work for the commuter airlines. A company and union with good relations can make compromises that will help with future success, one where the parties are at war, things can look like the Shilo Battlefield. When the bottom fell out of the auto industry in 1981-82 Ford did better with their union on reducing the reductions than GM, but Chrysler was in such poor shape that it was a ghost of itself after that. When things picked back up Ford was healthier, and a lot of UAW workers were saved from the axe.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 10:40 am

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.



That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 10:45 am

STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?



I do International Turns out of JFK

The first week of March we saw a noticeable drop outbound, but were full on inbounds as people rushed to get home.

By the second week of March, things fell off a cliff
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 10:48 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
September 30th in the US will be far worse, I fear.



No I dont think so.

TSA numbers are really starting to climb.

I would expect 20 to 30% to go on September 30 but nowhere near 60.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 10:54 am

BAorAB wrote:
It'll be no difference in the US come September 30th! Canadians are managing it better, facing the realities early, as is BA. It'll be interested to see what the pilot resolution will be, that's undoubtedly the cash drainer from the salary pool. Tough times. A reality check for the Industry. Goodbye to $100K senior cabin crew at places like UA, AA, BA and QF!


I don’t know how in the world you can say that.

The United States government stepped in and provided a much needed bailout to avoid losing hundreds of thousands of employees.

Britain let them twist in the wind

This will allow US companies to let things settle down and formulate a go-forward plan.

Specifically to Britain and Europe, This will particularly hurt them because the countries are too small.

In a time of uncertainty when countries are making visitors quarantine, and every nation has their own set of rules for visitors to jump through, The US carriers have a 330 million person nation and domestic travel to fall back on. And those numbers are already climbing. I really feel for British Airways and virgin Atlantic… There is nowhere for them to fly.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4786
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Sat May 16, 2020 11:21 am

exFWAOONW wrote:
Things will bounce back eventually. I know they want to stop the bleeding, but this seems like overkill for a short term issue. Were they bloated and needed to shrink before and the downturn is a convenient excuse?


Eventually yes. I wouldn't say this is a short term problem. We won't see business travel return until after there is a vaccine and it has time to be given to everyone. That's not really short term. AC knows they need business travel to really return. Leisure uptick won't be enough to support long international routes. All of these airlines have cash flow issues with much higher expenses then sales for a while. AC was not bloated they can't afford to just pay everyone for three years until it fully recovers. Same exact problem all the US carriers are facing

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