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enilria
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DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:19 pm

Anybody have a link to this memo? What is interesting about this is that it means Delta has a Fall schedule plan and it has a big reduction in flying. That is not surprising, but it is also news as no U.S. carrier has announced what will happen after 10/1 when CARES reqs expire.

Delta Air Lines expects to have 7,000 more pilots than it needs in the fall as the coronavirus pandemic weighs on its operations, according to a memo to flight operations employees seen by Reuters.

He said that by the third quarter of 2021 the airline would have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly its schedule, even accounting for the pilots who will reach mandatory retirement age between now and next summer.


https://business.financialpost.com/news ... -fall-memo
 
tphuang
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:24 pm

How many pilots does delta have in total before this started and how many have taken early outs and how many additional are retiring over next year?
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
How many pilots does delta have in total before this started and how many have taken early outs and how many additional are retiring over next year?

They had 15,000 pilots pre-COVID. This implies a network reduction of 50-70% in Fall.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:29 pm

The rough % of flying that has been thrown around recently are:
Q4 2020: 25%
Q2 2021: 50%
Q3 2021: 70%
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:35 pm

It's pretty amazing how the world has gone from a shortage of pilots to a (presumed) surplus of pilots in a matter of months.

It's been said before, but I'll say it again: the volatility in the airline business is crazy!

Add to that the capital intensive nature of the business and it's hard to believe people want to be in this industry.

Everything set up for billions of profits and long careers and then, boom, it all gets rebooted!

I guess there still is strong appeal to being in the airline industry, but you better be a very resilient type if you want to be in the industry.

One thing young entrants to the industry can be sure of, is this isn't the last boom/bust cycle they will be seeing.
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Triple7Lr
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:37 pm

Can some explain what happens to displaced pilots please?
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:38 pm

Triple7Lr wrote:
Can some explain what happens to displaced pilots please?

Not clear. I think Delta knows if they let them go they will not get them back easily. OTOH, they don't have the money to keep paying them.
 
KFTG
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:42 pm

They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:44 pm

KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.

Not unless Ch11 starts to be a serious consideration. They said they are burning $50m per day of cash. That's many billions by the end of the year depending how much they can reduce it.
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:48 pm

Triple7Lr wrote:
Can some explain what happens to displaced pilots please?

Unionized airlines like DL have strict rules driven by seniority. When jobs are eliminated positions are rebid based on seniority in a pretty complicated scheme based on what remaining position each pilot bids on. Those with the least seniority end up losing their bids and end up being furloughed which means they have rights to be recalled if/when their airline needs to begin hiring again. Some pilots spent many years on furlough after 9/11 and the 2008 GFC waiting to get called back, since the major airline gigs have far better terms/conditions then they had at other outfits or other careers.

I was listening to biancolariao (sp?) channel and he said he survived a bunch of layoffs in his career. He said he would have to move to a smaller airplane type so he'd be retrained, but by the time he finished retraining, either he'd be bumped to a different smaller airplane or back up to a bigger airplane, so he'd go months at a time without flying. Some times he'd be trained for a plane he never flew in service since all the changes happened faster than the airline could retrain him. Yet since he had enough seniority, he'd still be getting paid while all this bumping was going on.

enilria wrote:
Triple7Lr wrote:
Can some explain what happens to displaced pilots please?

Not clear. I think Delta knows if they let them go they will not get them back easily. OTOH, they don't have the money to keep paying them.

Why? Where are they going to go with the rest of the industry doing so poorly?
Last edited by Revelation on Thu May 14, 2020 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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codc10
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:49 pm

Surplus of pilots during fall/winter is structural and so I would not read this to mean DL needs to furlough 7k pilots this year. However, the 2500-3500 for 3Q21 is probably a good place to start for post-10/1 redundancies, unfortunately.
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:52 pm

enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.

Not unless Ch11 starts to be a serious consideration. They said they are burning $50m per day of cash. That's many billions by the end of the year depending how much they can reduce it.



They aren't going to furlough 7,000 pilots because that would set off a crushing training cascade to backfill the narrowbody A and B positions which are held by the generally less senior pilots that would get displaced. It's not like a 767 copilot can start piloting a 717 tomorrow. I think you understand this - but it diminishes the drama you seek.
 
KFTG
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:53 pm

enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.

Not unless Ch11 starts to be a serious consideration. They said they are burning $50m per day of cash. That's many billions by the end of the year depending how much they can reduce it.

You don't know what you're talking about. They aren't furloughing 7000 pilots.
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:53 pm

KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.


Probably not, but they aren't going to keep paying them to sit around either. There is going to be a massive surplus of pilots by the end of the year so it's not like Delta is worried about them running to another airline. Bad time to be a junior pilot at any airline right now. It's going to take 10 years to get back to staffing levels of December 2019.
 
bennett123
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:57 pm

How long does it take to bring a pilot furloughed for 3/6/9 months back on line.

Given that DL are retiring the MD88/MD90 and B777, presumably for pilots of these types, it will take somewhat longer.
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:58 pm

codc10 wrote:
Surplus of pilots during fall/winter is structural and so I would not read this to mean DL needs to furlough 7k pilots this year. However, the 2500-3500 for 3Q21 is probably a good place to start for post-10/1 redundancies, unfortunately.

It all depends on DL's cash position. I would expect more furloughs than 3500, but less than 7000.

Unfortunately, pilots are in surplus for 3 to 5 years. So the risk is employee relations. 4500 to 6000 furloughs are my best guess. However, if it doesn't rebound, 7,000.

For a recovery, Las Vegas, Orlando and its parks, cruises, business, and other leisure travel must return. The Allegiant conference call noted leisure recovered first in 2009, yet they are parking 25 aircraft (including scrapping 10 to 15).

I do not think the full magnitude of aircraft retirements will be known for months. The 777 showed that any fleet not planned to be kept 10+ years is at risk.

Which unfortunately means 12 to 14 pilots lost per retired aircraft.

Lightsaber
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 2:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
enilria wrote:
Triple7Lr wrote:
Can some explain what happens to displaced pilots please?

Not clear. I think Delta knows if they let them go they will not get them back easily. OTOH, they don't have the money to keep paying them.

Why? Where are they going to go with the rest of the industry doing so poorly?

I think Breeze/Moxy/Moxie is going to happen. One of the rumored features of the new airline was no ticket counter at all and very little person to person contact. The Uber of airlines. I think that works well in this environment and they will need pilots. Additionally, the existing airlines are going to be financially wrecked if they don't file Ch11, with huge debt loads and tons of non-performing assets. That means the option of much lower costs for a start-up.
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:00 pm

codc10 wrote:
Surplus of pilots during fall/winter is structural and so I would not read this to mean DL needs to furlough 7k pilots this year. However, the 2500-3500 for 3Q21 is probably a good place to start for post-10/1 redundancies, unfortunately.

In our DL/777 thread viewtopic.php?p=22215839#p22215781 says:

FlyingElvii wrote:
Posters at PC saying the AE memo highlights are:

ER Bases closing in SLC, MSP, DTW
717 bases closing in MSP, NYC
10,730 active pilot positions (a reduction of about 2,500 positions

That would put the furlough list around late 2016-early 2017.
I can easily see the 175’s replacing the 717’s, and the 220’s replacing 737 flying.
And this is just the first round of displacements.

As noted, this is just the first round, sigh.

Pilots bid a base and an aircraft together.

ER means 752, 753, and 763.

This means some pilots will bid to stay at a given base, or will bid to stay on the same type (to try to keep flying and thus income up), or some combination of the above.

It'll make for a lot of difficult choices, sigh.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu May 14, 2020 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:02 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.

Not unless Ch11 starts to be a serious consideration. They said they are burning $50m per day of cash. That's many billions by the end of the year depending how much they can reduce it.



They aren't going to furlough 7,000 pilots because that would set off a crushing training cascade to backfill the narrowbody A and B positions which are held by the generally less senior pilots that would get displaced. It's not like a 767 copilot can start piloting a 717 tomorrow. I think you understand this - but it diminishes the drama you seek.

If you file Ch11 the contract goes out the window, so I don't think you can depend on anything at this point. Also, the pilots would be smart not to fence the company into a situation where they have to file Ch11, when they could allow contractual relaxation to prevent the massive training events.
 
LHA320
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
codc10 wrote:
Surplus of pilots during fall/winter is structural and so I would not read this to mean DL needs to furlough 7k pilots this year. However, the 2500-3500 for 3Q21 is probably a good place to start for post-10/1 redundancies, unfortunately.

It all depends on DL's cash position. I would expect more furloughs than 3500, but less than 7000.

Unfortunately, pilots are in surplus for 3 to 5 years. So the risk is employee relations. 4500 to 6000 furloughs are my best guess. However, if it doesn't rebound, 7,000.

For a recovery, Las Vegas, Orlando and its parks, cruises, business, and other leisure travel must return. The Allegiant conference call noted leisure recovered first in 2009, yet they are parking 25 aircraft (including scrapping 10 to 15).

I do not think the full magnitude of aircraft retirements will be known for months. The 777 showed that any fleet not planned to be kept 10+ years is at risk.

Which unfortunately means 12 to 14 pilots lost per retired aircraft.

Lightsaber


True, in my opinion the 764 may be at risk too!
AB6 - A319 - A320 - A321 - A333 - A388 - AT42 - 733 - 734 - 735 - 73H - 738 - 752 - 753 - 763 - 772 - DC10 - MD83
 
WorldFlier
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:04 pm

Triple7Lr wrote:
Can some explain what happens to displaced pilots please?


Depends on the country and the level of support they will give to keep semi-empty planes flying (looking at you China), but I am guessing that many of the marginal "pilots" at marginal "airlines" will have trouble finding work while the best pilots (if say an airline like Delta or Emirates downsizes significantly) who are laid off will drive down pilot salaries as they fight for remaining jobs across the world.
Last edited by WorldFlier on Thu May 14, 2020 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:06 pm

enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Not unless Ch11 starts to be a serious consideration. They said they are burning $50m per day of cash. That's many billions by the end of the year depending how much they can reduce it.



They aren't going to furlough 7,000 pilots because that would set off a crushing training cascade to backfill the narrowbody A and B positions which are held by the generally less senior pilots that would get displaced. It's not like a 767 copilot can start piloting a 717 tomorrow. I think you understand this - but it diminishes the drama you seek.

If you file Ch11 the contract goes out the window, so I don't think you can depend on anything at this point. Also, the pilots would be smart not to fence the company into a situation where they have to file Ch11, when they could allow contractual relaxation to prevent the massive training events.

No, it does not go out the window (thanks to the case where Texas Air era CO was able to do so, but laws got changed) but it does become amendable, subject to approval by the bankruptcy judge. It does pressure the workers to make concessions, but it does not let the company throw out the contract. Judges aren't likely to approve wholesale changes without strong rationale being given and without a chance for company and union to negotiate a compromize
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:06 pm

LHA320 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
codc10 wrote:
Surplus of pilots during fall/winter is structural and so I would not read this to mean DL needs to furlough 7k pilots this year. However, the 2500-3500 for 3Q21 is probably a good place to start for post-10/1 redundancies, unfortunately.

It all depends on DL's cash position. I would expect more furloughs than 3500, but less than 7000.

Unfortunately, pilots are in surplus for 3 to 5 years. So the risk is employee relations. 4500 to 6000 furloughs are my best guess. However, if it doesn't rebound, 7,000.

For a recovery, Las Vegas, Orlando and its parks, cruises, business, and other leisure travel must return. The Allegiant conference call noted leisure recovered first in 2009, yet they are parking 25 aircraft (including scrapping 10 to 15).

I do not think the full magnitude of aircraft retirements will be known for months. The 777 showed that any fleet not planned to be kept 10+ years is at risk.

Which unfortunately means 12 to 14 pilots lost per retired aircraft.

Lightsaber


True, in my opinion the 764 may be at risk too!

I think the reason the 777 went first is because the plane is big and DL is thinking demand won't be back. The 767s are smaller and that is a safer spot, plus the 767s don't have the A350s coming to replace them (at least an A350 is not the right plane to replace them). But I suspect a lot of 767s headed to the chop shop.
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:09 pm

I think we’ll see something similar to what AA has offered it’s 60+ year old pilots. Paid a low schedule equivalent to stay home with benefits intact until mandatory retirement.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:16 pm

enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Not unless Ch11 starts to be a serious consideration. They said they are burning $50m per day of cash. That's many billions by the end of the year depending how much they can reduce it.



They aren't going to furlough 7,000 pilots because that would set off a crushing training cascade to backfill the narrowbody A and B positions which are held by the generally less senior pilots that would get displaced. It's not like a 767 copilot can start piloting a 717 tomorrow. I think you understand this - but it diminishes the drama you seek.

If you file Ch11 the contract goes out the window, so I don't think you can depend on anything at this point. Also, the pilots would be smart not to fence the company into a situation where they have to file Ch11, when they could allow contractual relaxation to prevent the massive training events.


No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”.

DL’s AE shows about 2,500 surplus pilots later this year. Do they furlough? Maybe, depending on how goes the economy and travel bookings. I’d guess 2,500 to 3,500, which is early 2016 hires.
 
Jshank83
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

I see DL is closing its pilot base at CVG also.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

here is the memo:

MEMO
TO: All Flight Operations Employees
FROM: John Laughter, S.V.P. – Flight Operations
DATE: May 14, 2020
SUBJECT: Fleet Plan, Displacement Bid and Flight Operations Next Steps

Even months into the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s difficult to fully grasp the reality of how it has impacted our entire industry and Delta’s current situation. We’re currently skimming along the bottom of an 85% reduced operation with more than 95% percent of our passenger revenue gone. While we know that we will eventually see growth and the return of our customers, our challenge is predicting the pace and timing of this return – which will be slower than any of us hoped.

After thoughtful and careful planning, our Network team finalized the fleet and network plan reflecting this multi-year recovery. This plan gives us insight into what our staffing needs will be and what was necessary to finalize the May 2020 Advanced Entitlement/Surplus Bid, which will be posted tomorrow.

Simply put, this AE/Surplus Bid will have a profound impact on every single one of us in Flight Operations. It includes significant fleet and base changes such as the retirement of the MD-88/90, the retirement of the 777 fleet, which Ed announced early today, and adds A350 categories in ATL and LAX. The bid also captures flying reductions on other categories, including the 717 and 7ER, as we fly a smaller overall fleet.

The unprecedented challenges we face during this crisis also led to the difficult decision to close our CVG pilot base after 33 years there. This was not a decision made lightly, but limitations of the CVG base drive operational inefficiency which cannot be overcome in this environment.

There are other category and base adjustments that Bob Schmelzer will detail in a memo preceding the AE/Surplus Bid. I recognize these changes and our current circumstances are unsettling and many of you have questions about what happens after the AE. While I don’t have those specific answers today, I do have hard numbers that paint the reality we are in. Based on current capacity expectations for this fall, we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule. That accounts for the pilots who will reach mandatory retirement age between now and next summer.

We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures. We have meetings scheduled to engage with your elected representatives this week to discuss options, including an early retirement program. We will share more details about these discussions when we can.

I know this is difficult news to read, just as it is difficult for me to relay, but the decisive actions we take now will aid us in our recovery as we emerge on the other side. As Ed said, we were the strongest airline going into this crisis, and we will be the strongest coming out.

As we work through these challenging times, thank you for your focus on our core mission to safely fly our customers, and for your professionalism and leadership.
 
kiowa
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:22 pm

KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.



I hope that's not the case but nobody knows for sure. I also hope that employees saved last years profit sharing. Debt sharing is not good.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:27 pm

enilria wrote:
I think Breeze/Moxy/Moxie is going to happen. One of the rumored features of the new airline was no ticket counter at all and very little person to person contact. The Uber of airlines. I think that works well in this environment and they will need pilots. Additionally, the existing airlines are going to be financially wrecked if they don't file Ch11, with huge debt loads and tons of non-performing assets. That means the option of much lower costs for a start-up.


Pity the poor gate agent or two when the flight cancels or has a major delay. There's something to be said for having boots on the ground instead a 'virtual' ticket counter or doing everything on an app.
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:29 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”.

In this situation it is highly likely to go out the window. I don't see a Ch11 judge requiring an airline to spend tens or hundreds of million of dollars of the creditors money on needless training events just because the union wants it all nice and tidy in terms of who gets to fly what from seniority. Maybe in normal times, but we are talking about massive disruptions. Good luck talking a judge into that. I'd think that would have zero chance of being honored right now.
 
phxa340
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:29 pm

Hoping these pilots and FAs aren’t holding out for second bailout because that ain’t happening ... GOP has already said its DOA and the Dems want to attach so many strings that the airlines would probably pass on more aid. With that being said , the US is resilient and I think people are going a little too negative on their outlook.
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:29 pm

catiii wrote:
here is the memo:

MEMO
TO: All Flight Operations Employees
FROM: John Laughter, S.V.P. – Flight Operations
DATE: May 14, 2020
SUBJECT: Fleet Plan, Displacement Bid and Flight Operations Next Steps

Even months into the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s difficult to fully grasp the reality of how it has impacted our entire industry and Delta’s current situation. We’re currently skimming along the bottom of an 85% reduced operation with more than 95% percent of our passenger revenue gone. While we know that we will eventually see growth and the return of our customers, our challenge is predicting the pace and timing of this return – which will be slower than any of us hoped.

After thoughtful and careful planning, our Network team finalized the fleet and network plan reflecting this multi-year recovery. This plan gives us insight into what our staffing needs will be and what was necessary to finalize the May 2020 Advanced Entitlement/Surplus Bid, which will be posted tomorrow.

Simply put, this AE/Surplus Bid will have a profound impact on every single one of us in Flight Operations. It includes significant fleet and base changes such as the retirement of the MD-88/90, the retirement of the 777 fleet, which Ed announced early today, and adds A350 categories in ATL and LAX. The bid also captures flying reductions on other categories, including the 717 and 7ER, as we fly a smaller overall fleet.

The unprecedented challenges we face during this crisis also led to the difficult decision to close our CVG pilot base after 33 years there. This was not a decision made lightly, but limitations of the CVG base drive operational inefficiency which cannot be overcome in this environment.

There are other category and base adjustments that Bob Schmelzer will detail in a memo preceding the AE/Surplus Bid. I recognize these changes and our current circumstances are unsettling and many of you have questions about what happens after the AE. While I don’t have those specific answers today, I do have hard numbers that paint the reality we are in. Based on current capacity expectations for this fall, we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule. That accounts for the pilots who will reach mandatory retirement age between now and next summer.

We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures. We have meetings scheduled to engage with your elected representatives this week to discuss options, including an early retirement program. We will share more details about these discussions when we can.

I know this is difficult news to read, just as it is difficult for me to relay, but the decisive actions we take now will aid us in our recovery as we emerge on the other side. As Ed said, we were the strongest airline going into this crisis, and we will be the strongest coming out.

As we work through these challenging times, thank you for your focus on our core mission to safely fly our customers, and for your professionalism and leadership.

Thanks
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:31 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think Breeze/Moxy/Moxie is going to happen. One of the rumored features of the new airline was no ticket counter at all and very little person to person contact. The Uber of airlines. I think that works well in this environment and they will need pilots. Additionally, the existing airlines are going to be financially wrecked if they don't file Ch11, with huge debt loads and tons of non-performing assets. That means the option of much lower costs for a start-up.


Pity the poor gate agent or two when the flight cancels or has a major delay. There's something to be said for having boots on the ground instead a 'virtual' ticket counter or doing everything on an app.

Maybe. I think the younger people hate interacting with other people face to face and COVID will only make that worse. It'll all be handled in the app. The bigger question is how they handle baggage only at the gate.
 
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enilria
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:35 pm

KFTG wrote:
You don't know what you're talking about. They aren't furloughing 7000 pilots.

Or...
...we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule...We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:37 pm

catiii wrote:
FROM: John Laughter, S.V.P. – Flight Operations

Truly unfortunate name, given the current circumstances...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:39 pm

enilria wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”.

In this situation it is highly likely to go out the window. I don't see a Ch11 judge requiring an airline to spend tens or hundreds of million of dollars of the creditors money on needless training events just because the union wants it all nice and tidy in terms of who gets to fly what from seniority. Maybe in normal times, but we are talking about massive disruptions. Good luck talking a judge into that. I'd think that would have zero chance of being honored right now.

Right, now define "needless".
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:42 pm

enilria wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”.

In this situation it is highly likely to go out the window. I don't see a Ch11 judge requiring an airline to spend tens or hundreds of million of dollars of the creditors money on needless training events just because the union wants it all nice and tidy in terms of who gets to fly what from seniority. Maybe in normal times, but we are talking about massive disruptions. Good luck talking a judge into that. I'd think that would have zero chance of being honored right now.


Those rules have been sustained through multiple bankruptcy filings even CO’s. So, there’s that.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:45 pm

enilria wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”.

In this situation it is highly likely to go out the window. I don't see a Ch11 judge requiring an airline to spend tens or hundreds of million of dollars of the creditors money on needless training events just because the union wants it all nice and tidy in terms of who gets to fly what from seniority. Maybe in normal times, but we are talking about massive disruptions. Good luck talking a judge into that. I'd think that would have zero chance of being honored right now.

Contracts don’t just apply for the good days. The perception that management gets anything it wants during Ch11 is perplexing. If that were the case, you’d see if after every contract, and two months ago. Ch11 cedes control time creditors, potentially unwind in plenty of things management wants. Nobody wins in it.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
enilria wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”.

In this situation it is highly likely to go out the window. I don't see a Ch11 judge requiring an airline to spend tens or hundreds of million of dollars of the creditors money on needless training events just because the union wants it all nice and tidy in terms of who gets to fly what from seniority. Maybe in normal times, but we are talking about massive disruptions. Good luck talking a judge into that. I'd think that would have zero chance of being honored right now.

Right, now define "needless".


Seriously. In that case, either the judge says that type training isn't important and carriers shouldn't bother retraining pilots who get pushed to other aircraft (which they wouldn't even have the authority to do), or they say that airlines can ignore seniority when doing furloughs and unilaterally turn decades of labor law precedent on its head.
 
Alias1024
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:48 pm

enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
You don't know what you're talking about. They aren't furloughing 7000 pilots.

Or...
...we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule...We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures.


Airlines staff pilots for the peak demand of the year, hence the comment about third quarter 2021. This also gives them what they need to cover the busy holiday period.

If they furlough 7,000 they'll be sunk. They will have very few narrow body first officers not on the street, and won't have the time to retrain enough wide body first officers and narrow body captains to fill those seats. I doubt flying mostly wide body aircraft is a viable plan for Delta this fall.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
FSDan
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
catiii wrote:
FROM: John Laughter, S.V.P. – Flight Operations

Truly unfortunate name, given the current circumstances...


I thought that too.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:52 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
You don't know what you're talking about. They aren't furloughing 7000 pilots.

Or...
...we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule...We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures.


Airlines staff pilots for the peak demand of the year, hence the comment about third quarter 2021. This also gives them what they need to cover the busy holiday period.

If they furlough 7,000 they'll be sunk. They will have very few narrow body first officers not on the street, and won't have the time to retrain enough wide body first officers and narrow body captains to fill those seats. I doubt flying mostly wide body aircraft is a viable plan for Delta this fall.



Even an initial furlough of 2000 would cripple the A220 fleet for months, as something like 85% of the FO's on the 220 are in the bottom 2000 pilots.
From my cold, dead hands
 
Westerwaelder
Posts: 219
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 3:59 pm

enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
You don't know what you're talking about. They aren't furloughing 7000 pilots.

Or...
...we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming⁷ number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule...We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures.


I would read that as 2,500 to 3,500 positions to be removed. They say they intend to align staffing to long term needs. The 7,000 overcapacity is for this winter so short term.
 
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adv40624
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 5:20 pm

Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines.

I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
Robert Crandall

A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money.
Robert Crandall
 
LNCS0930
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 5:30 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The rough % of flying that has been thrown around recently are:
Q4 2020: 25%
Q2 2021: 50%
Q3 2021: 70%


The Q4 number this year and Q1 number in 2021 will almost definitely end up veryifing too low
 
Dalmd88
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 5:35 pm

Westerwaelder wrote:
enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
You don't know what you're talking about. They aren't furloughing 7000 pilots.

Or...
...we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming⁷ number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule...We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures.


I would read that as 2,500 to 3,500 positions to be removed. They say they intend to align staffing to long term needs. The 7,000 overcapacity is for this winter so short term.

I agree with that assessment. I think the plan company wide is to right size personnel requirements for the expected Summer 2021 needs. Ed's town hall yesterday said they expect to be cash flow neutral by Dec. I think that is with the plan of extra staffing through Q1 and Q2 of next year.

Someone else mentioned a age 60+ package for pilots. Ed alluded to that also. They would much rather make it sweeter for the top of the list to go to an early sunset by choice than cut from the bottom.

In about a week we should have the retirement and vol separation packages announced for rank and file.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 5:39 pm

Dalmd88 wrote:
Westerwaelder wrote:
enilria wrote:
Or...
...we will be overstaffed by more than 7,000 pilots. I recognize that is an alarming⁷ number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term. By the third quarter 2021, we will have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly the schedule...We are looking at all options to minimize potential furloughs and offset impact on our pilots through additional voluntary programs and cost-saving measures.


I would read that as 2,500 to 3,500 positions to be removed. They say they intend to align staffing to long term needs. The 7,000 overcapacity is for this winter so short term.

I agree with that assessment. I think the plan company wide is to right size personnel requirements for the expected Summer 2021 needs. Ed's town hall yesterday said they expect to be cash flow neutral by Dec. I think that is with the plan of extra staffing through Q1 and Q2 of next year.

Someone else mentioned a age 60+ package for pilots. Ed alluded to that also. They would much rather make it sweeter for the top of the list to go to an early sunset by choice than cut from the bottom.

In about a week we should have the retirement and vol separation packages announced for rank and file.


I’m not sure how well they can guess summer 2021. I would assume they’ll lean pessimistic but not too much so. One would guess all seasonal routes will not happen next summer so I’m imagining no SNN PRG CPH KEF for DAL next summer either. They may regret it in the end but it’s probably the prudent decision to make
 
BravoOne
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 6:00 pm

FSDan wrote:
Revelation wrote:
catiii wrote:
FROM: John Laughter, S.V.P. – Flight Operations

Truly unfortunate name, given the current circumstances...


I thought that too.



Don't think that's how he pronounces it. Sounds like Lotter?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5048
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 6:02 pm

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
How many pilots does delta have in total before this started and how many have taken early outs and how many additional are retiring over next year?

They had 15,000 pilots pre-COVID. This implies a network reduction of 50-70% in Fall.

Agreed.

Also if I assume 1000+ slated for retirement for next Q3, then you are looking at about 30% network reduction for next summer vs 2019. Basically, about the same reduction level as UA (or maybe a little lower).

Again, not sure what AA is doing. They should be cutting the most. Looks like UA/DL is trying pretty hard here to avoid chapter 11.

Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans). And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.
 
NYCAAer
Posts: 780
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 10:22 pm

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 6:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
How many pilots does delta have in total before this started and how many have taken early outs and how many additional are retiring over next year?

They had 15,000 pilots pre-COVID. This implies a network reduction of 50-70% in Fall.

Agreed.

Also if I assume 1000+ slated for retirement for next Q3, then you are looking at about 30% network reduction for next summer vs 2019. Basically, about the same reduction level as UA (or maybe a little lower).

Again, not sure what AA is doing. They should be cutting the most. Looks like UA/DL is trying pretty hard here to avoid chapter 11.

Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans). And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.


Sadly, I don’t think DUI Dougie cares about AA declaring Chapter 11 again. He’s set for life with his hundreds of millions.

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