It would be interesting to see the split between their hubs to Asia. Is there enough traffic on east coast to support both DTW/ATL-PVG/HND? ATL-PVG seems not necessary. Not sure if there is enough O&D to justify ATL-HND. Might well just consolidate all the east coast HND traffic through DTW. I presume ICN sticks around for both.
And on the west coast, seems like they should keep operating LAX-HND/PVG/SYD if they want to become the top dog there, especially since AA/UA both benefit from JV and alliance partners to Asia. at least one if not both of MSP/PDX-HND probably get axed. so there should be enough demand in west coast and middle of country to support both SEA/LAX-HND. Are 2 flights a day from west coast to PVG too much capacity? After all, MU is unlikely going to cut that much. Demand to China could be suppressed for a while.
I agree ATL-PVG will probably go away. I expect it's a smaller local market than DL's other PVG routes, and it's a longer flight with worse geography for U.S. connections. I could see China->South America cargo having been an important part of the route, and even if the 359 could make the distance with a full passenger load, it wouldn't be able to carry the volume of cargo that the 77L did.
The other PVG routes are interesting. On the one hand, China traffic will likely be down for a while. On the other hand, LAX is likely to remain a huge local market to China, DTW has the auto industry connection that probably isn't going away entirely, and SEA seems like a strategically important gateway to China for DL (not to mention that they could end up having the market to themselves depending on what happens with HU). After ATL-PVG, I'd guess the China market in the next most danger might be DTW-PEK.
I think ATL-TYO will probably stick around. DL's been flying this route for decades, even before the merger with NW provided connections at the TYO end, so there must be a decent market there. Disney World opening back up might be an important part of this, as I bet DL was getting a decent chunk of the TYO-MCO market as well as connections to the rest of the South and to Brazil, Peru, Chile, etc. PDX-HND and MSP-HND do seem the most in danger of the TYO flights, in my opinion. PDX is the larger local market, but MSP offers convenient connections from lots of midsize cities that don't have Asia nonstops like MCI, STL, MKE, IND, and BNA. Most of those could be routed through DTW pretty efficiently, with MCI maybe being better to flow over SEA. I'm sure DL considers the HND rights an important long-term strategic asset, so it will be interesting to see what happens here.
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