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ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 6:35 pm

adv40624 wrote:
Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines.

I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
Robert Crandall

A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money.
Robert Crandall


If airlines in this country, even after decades of reorganization, consolidation, and optimization are still intrinsically unable to deliver an sustainable return on investment, then they simply shouldn't exist as private entities anymore.

If all the effort and all the suffering spent trying to turn this industry into something respectable didn't matter in the end, then deregulation has been a failure. Bring back the CAB or just let everyone walk to Disney World when everything reopens. Whenever the hell that may be.
 
Flaps
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 6:53 pm

Contract or no contract, Chapter 11 or no Chapter 11, keeping 7000 excess pilots on the payroll for any extended period without subsidy will result in 15,000 excess pilots. Management and Labor better work together amicably, effectively and quickly or they are all out in the street. Any gamesmanship by either side will result in a quick end for all.
 
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TWA302
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 6:57 pm

KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.


Why not? Larger companies with a stronger revenue bottom line (in the travel industry) have done the same thing furloughing more. Never say never. DL will do whatever it takes to stay afloat. I hope they don't but anything is possible.
 
tjerome
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:01 pm

As stated there is a projected excess of about 2500 pilots, prior to any early retirement packages being offered, this is looking at May 2021 by the way.
 
FSDan
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans).


Yep, that's a notable point that hasn't been discussed much yet. I'd assume LAX-HND and LAX-PVG are planned to remain long term and move to the 359 (which has operated on both in the past), and possibly LAX-SYD once Australia reopens to international traffic and demand starts to return. If PVG and/or SYD were on the chopping block long term it would be odd to establish a new base there.

tphuang wrote:
And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.


In particular, the LGA-ORD shuttle is likely to go back to E75 equipment for now, I'd think. LGA-BOS was already going to be mostly E75 this summer, with just one or two 717 rotations. The JFK 717 routes I remember seeing planned for S20 included MSP, DTW, CHS, CLT, and RDU, all of which could be downgauged to CR9s in the near term.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:14 pm

7000 pilots will not be removed for OCT, just like 9000 wouldn't be removed for JUL, or 11000 for this MAY. The 2500-3500 number is the important number to watch. 7k is just used to illustrate the staffing recovery timeline. It makes no sense to furlough for <12 months. The cascade of training takes time and a lot of money. Also, DL pilots receive monthly "furlough pay" matching years of service.
 
tphuang
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:34 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans).


Yep, that's a notable point that hasn't been discussed much yet. I'd assume LAX-HND and LAX-PVG are planned to remain long term and move to the 359 (which has operated on both in the past), and possibly LAX-SYD once Australia reopens to international traffic and demand starts to return. If PVG and/or SYD were on the chopping block long term it would be odd to establish a new base there.

It would be interesting to see the split between their hubs to Asia. Is there enough traffic on east coast to support both DTW/ATL-PVG/HND? ATL-PVG seems not necessary. Not sure if there is enough O&D to justify ATL-HND. Might well just consolidate all the east coast HND traffic through DTW. I presume ICN sticks around for both.
And on the west coast, seems like they should keep operating LAX-HND/PVG/SYD if they want to become the top dog there, especially since AA/UA both benefit from JV and alliance partners to Asia. at least one if not both of MSP/PDX-HND probably get axed. so there should be enough demand in west coast and middle of country to support both SEA/LAX-HND. Are 2 flights a day from west coast to PVG too much capacity? After all, MU is unlikely going to cut that much. Demand to China could be suppressed for a while.

tphuang wrote:
And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.


In particular, the LGA-ORD shuttle is likely to go back to E75 equipment for now, I'd think. LGA-BOS was already going to be mostly E75 this summer, with just one or two 717 rotations. The JFK 717 routes I remember seeing planned for S20 included MSP, DTW, CHS, CLT, and RDU, all of which could be downgauged to CR9s in the near term.

IIRC, NYC is A220 based? If so, some of these routes might get A220. Or more likely, some of the recent upgauges to 737-800 and A321 might get downgauaged back down to A220.

Then again, they also might put most of their A220s in SEA to keep pace with AS. That's going to be interesting.

Slots are going to become available at JFK once the waiver is over. I would imagine DL would increase a lot RJ flying to make sure it not only utilize its existing flights but claim new slots that become available.

And given the likely downgauges at NYC/DTW/MSP, I think it's safe to say a good chunk of the RJ stuff out of BOS/CVG/RDU never comes back.
 
amcnd
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:43 pm

enilria wrote:
Revelation wrote:
enilria wrote:
Not clear. I think Delta knows if they let them go they will not get them back easily. OTOH, they don't have the money to keep paying them.

Why? Where are they going to go with the rest of the industry doing so poorly?

I think Breeze/Moxy/Moxie is going to happen. One of the rumored features of the new airline was no ticket counter at all and very little person to person contact. The Uber of airlines. I think that works well in this environment and they will need pilots. Additionally, the existing airlines are going to be financially wrecked if they don't file Ch11, with huge debt loads and tons of non-performing assets. That means the option of much lower costs for a start-up.



Didn't Azul just ( “Neilman chairman of the board” ) Postpone E195-E2’s for a 2 years? Those would have replaced 190’s that would have been Breeze startup aircraft...
 
MSPNWA
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:52 pm

It's hard to process how bad this news is. My thoughts are with the junior ranks. This is going to be a rough time.

tphuang wrote:
Again, not sure what AA is doing. They should be cutting the most. Looks like UA/DL is trying pretty hard here to avoid chapter 11.


I find this funny. As of yesterday, DL had announced no major shakeup plan in pilot staffing. And as of today they're still not close to an agreement with the union on an early retirement plan. And that is a key tool to prevent the downward pressure of displacements in the pilot ranks. AA was proactive in that area, and they deserve credit for it. I bet they'll get their displacement plan out soon enough. So the question is still what is DL doing.

tphuang wrote:
Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans). And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.


A lack of a base doesn't mean no flying at all. UA can fairly easily cover the downsized LAX network with the SFO base since LAX flights have a shared destination as an SFO flight. DL probably will put more priority into LAX, and SEA isn't as realistic as a crew base to cover LAX. Hence I'm not surprised DL is opening a 350 base there.
 
ABEguy
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:53 pm

[*]
tphuang wrote:
How many pilots does delta have in total before this started and how many have taken early outs and how many additional are retiring over next year?


Delta has not offered their pilots an early out program. (Yet)
 
mmo
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 7:57 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:

Seriously. In that case, either the judge says that type training isn't important and carriers shouldn't bother retraining pilots who get pushed to other aircraft (which they wouldn't even have the authority to do), or they say that airlines can ignore seniority when doing furloughs and unilaterally turn decades of labor law precedent on its head.


I hate to say it, but you don't have a clue. First of all, the judge can't do anything to the CBA until there is an 1113 filing by the company. Once the filing is made then there is a hearing, a very long one, in this case, the company puts on its dog and pony show and the union argues why the relief should not be granted. Then, after careful deliberation, the judge will make his decision.

Normally, there would be an agreement and a side letter or letter of agreement signed between the Union and the company for relief. Judges are very wary of getting into the negotiated agreement. Especially when it involves seniority issues. That is the cornerstone of most CBAs. and seniority is even more sacred. Everything that the pilot does is determined by seniority.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
ABEguy
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 8:12 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
It's hard to process how bad this news is. My thoughts are with the junior ranks. This is going to be a rough time.

tphuang wrote:
Again, not sure what AA is doing. They should be cutting the most. Looks like UA/DL is trying pretty hard here to avoid chapter 11.


I find this funny. As of yesterday, DL had announced no major shakeup plan in pilot staffing. And as of today they're still not close to an agreement with the union on an early retirement plan. And that is a key tool to prevent the downward pressure of displacements in the pilot ranks. AA was proactive in that area, and they deserve credit for it. I bet they'll get their displacement plan out soon enough. So the question is still what is DL doing.

tphuang wrote:
Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans). And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.


A lack of a base doesn't mean no flying at all. UA can fairly easily cover the downsized LAX network with the SFO base since LAX flights have a shared destination as an SFO flight. DL probably will put more priority into LAX, and SEA isn't as realistic as a crew base to cover LAX. Hence I'm not surprised DL is opening a 350 base there.


AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.
 
FSDan
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 8:37 pm

tphuang wrote:
It would be interesting to see the split between their hubs to Asia. Is there enough traffic on east coast to support both DTW/ATL-PVG/HND? ATL-PVG seems not necessary. Not sure if there is enough O&D to justify ATL-HND. Might well just consolidate all the east coast HND traffic through DTW. I presume ICN sticks around for both.
And on the west coast, seems like they should keep operating LAX-HND/PVG/SYD if they want to become the top dog there, especially since AA/UA both benefit from JV and alliance partners to Asia. at least one if not both of MSP/PDX-HND probably get axed. so there should be enough demand in west coast and middle of country to support both SEA/LAX-HND. Are 2 flights a day from west coast to PVG too much capacity? After all, MU is unlikely going to cut that much. Demand to China could be suppressed for a while.


I agree ATL-PVG will probably go away. I expect it's a smaller local market than DL's other PVG routes, and it's a longer flight with worse geography for U.S. connections. I could see China->South America cargo having been an important part of the route, and even if the 359 could make the distance with a full passenger load, it wouldn't be able to carry the volume of cargo that the 77L did.

The other PVG routes are interesting. On the one hand, China traffic will likely be down for a while. On the other hand, LAX is likely to remain a huge local market to China, DTW has the auto industry connection that probably isn't going away entirely, and SEA seems like a strategically important gateway to China for DL (not to mention that they could end up having the market to themselves depending on what happens with HU). After ATL-PVG, I'd guess the China market in the next most danger might be DTW-PEK.

I think ATL-TYO will probably stick around. DL's been flying this route for decades, even before the merger with NW provided connections at the TYO end, so there must be a decent market there. Disney World opening back up might be an important part of this, as I bet DL was getting a decent chunk of the TYO-MCO market as well as connections to the rest of the South and to Brazil, Peru, Chile, etc. PDX-HND and MSP-HND do seem the most in danger of the TYO flights, in my opinion. PDX is the larger local market, but MSP offers convenient connections from lots of midsize cities that don't have Asia nonstops like MCI, STL, MKE, IND, and BNA. Most of those could be routed through DTW pretty efficiently, with MCI maybe being better to flow over SEA. I'm sure DL considers the HND rights an important long-term strategic asset, so it will be interesting to see what happens here.
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panamair
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 8:38 pm

FSDan wrote:
I'd assume LAX-HND and LAX-PVG are planned to remain long term and move to the 359 (which has operated on both in the past)


LAX-HND can easily switch to the A339 too if they don’t have enough A359s when things start ramping up again...
 
airlineworker
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 8:52 pm

This might give pilots a cause for thought regarding the scope clause. I am not saying to give the store away, but just enough to allow a slightly bigger aircraft such as the E-175-2 which is a natural progression in replacing the E-175 down the line.
The airline business is never going to be the same, so it's time to get used to the new normal. The Covid-19 virus has been here for four months or so and look at the havoc it is wreaking on the airlines. Massive numbers of planes parked, a mere number of flights and many layoffs all across the airline work force.
We have seen the future and it does not look good for all sectors of the economy.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 9:09 pm

ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Okay, but I don't believe that to be the same thing as the dramatic post-CARES Act (October and onward) bid that UA and now DL has released that displaces thousands and gives us an idea of potential furloughs. That is the type of bid package I'm talking about. My understanding of what you're mentioning has to do with imminent fleet retirements and subsequent short-term staffing adjustments.
 
bigb
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 9:19 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Okay, but I don't believe that to be the same thing as the dramatic post-CARES Act (October and onward) bid that UA and now DL has released that displaces thousands and gives us an idea of potential furloughs. That is the type of bid package I'm talking about. My understanding of what you're mentioning has to do with imminent fleet retirements and subsequent short-term staffing adjustments.


No that is a similar displacement vacancy bid that UA and DL have undertaken. It also provide a pilot staffing outlook going into next year. This bid packet includes the early outs and those who have been a approved for the LOA that was offered by AA. AA has been ahead of DL and UA both in terms of offering early outs and LOAs to reduce staffing and staffing costs. Not to say there won’t be furloughs. I don’t foresee them being as bad as DL or UA.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 9:24 pm

airlineworker wrote:
This might give pilots a cause for thought regarding the scope clause. I am not saying to give the store away, but just enough to allow a slightly bigger aircraft such as the E-175-2 which is a natural progression in replacing the E-175 down the line.
The airline business is never going to be the same, so it's time to get used to the new normal. The Covid-19 virus has been here for four months or so and look at the havoc it is wreaking on the airlines. Massive numbers of planes parked, a mere number of flights and many layoffs all across the airline work force.
We have seen the future and it does not look good for all sectors of the economy.

Pilots who are facing furloughs should cede more of their own jobs away to regionals?
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6076
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 9:26 pm

airlineworker wrote:
This might give pilots a cause for thought regarding the scope clause. I am not saying to give the store away, but just enough to allow a slightly bigger aircraft such as the E-175-2 which is a natural progression in replacing the E-175 down the line.
The airline business is never going to be the same, so it's time to get used to the new normal. The Covid-19 virus has been here for four months or so and look at the havoc it is wreaking on the airlines. Massive numbers of planes parked, a mere number of flights and many layoffs all across the airline work force.
We have seen the future and it does not look good for all sectors of the economy.



Scope will be relaxed just before ALPA gives away seniority, IOW, not even a glimmer of a chance.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 9:53 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Those rules have been sustained through multiple bankruptcy filings even CO’s. So, there’s that.

Nothing like this has ever happened before, so of course it is not even been asked for previously. This is the greatest disruption in the history of commercial aviation and no airline has filed Ch11 since the laws on union contracts were changed that was seeking relief from a 30-50% reduction in operations. Even Eastern shrank that much only after entering Ch11. Here an airline would be entering Ch11 to shield them from the costs of that reduction driven by an uncontrollable event. I see no chance a judge sticks the bill for that on creditors. It would be completely unreasonable.
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
adv40624 wrote:
Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines.

I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
Robert Crandall

A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money.
Robert Crandall


If airlines in this country, even after decades of reorganization, consolidation, and optimization are still intrinsically unable to deliver an sustainable return on investment, then they simply shouldn't exist as private entities anymore.

If all the effort and all the suffering spent trying to turn this industry into something respectable didn't matter in the end, then deregulation has been a failure. Bring back the CAB or just let everyone walk to Disney World when everything reopens. Whenever the hell that may be.

The current exemption process is de facto the CAB.
Cactusjuba wrote:
7000 pilots will not be removed for OCT, just like 9000 wouldn't be removed for JUL, or 11000 for this MAY. The 2500-3500 number is the important number to watch. 7k is just used to illustrate the staffing recovery timeline. It makes no sense to furlough for <12 months. The cascade of training takes time and a lot of money. Also, DL pilots receive monthly "furlough pay" matching years of service.

I don't disagree, but again the other factor is that I don't see how Delta can afford to pay that many idle pilots for a year. I agree they will probably not force out more than 2500-3500, but they may still need to file Ch11. Think of just the leases on planes that won't be flying, plus the wages to sit around.
amcnd wrote:
enilria wrote:
Revelation wrote:

Why? Where are they going to go with the rest of the industry doing so poorly?

I think Breeze/Moxy/Moxie is going to happen. One of the rumored features of the new airline was no ticket counter at all and very little person to person contact. The Uber of airlines. I think that works well in this environment and they will need pilots. Additionally, the existing airlines are going to be financially wrecked if they don't file Ch11, with huge debt loads and tons of non-performing assets. That means the option of much lower costs for a start-up.



Didn't Azul just ( “Neilman chairman of the board” ) Postpone E195-E2’s for a 2 years? Those would have replaced 190’s that would have been Breeze startup aircraft...

I don't know about that, but I also know Breeze is moving forward as we speak. They are not on hold.
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Revelation wrote:
enilria wrote:
In this situation it is highly likely to go out the window. I don't see a Ch11 judge requiring an airline to spend tens or hundreds of million of dollars of the creditors money on needless training events just because the union wants it all nice and tidy in terms of who gets to fly what from seniority. Maybe in normal times, but we are talking about massive disruptions. Good luck talking a judge into that. I'd think that would have zero chance of being honored right now.

Right, now define "needless".


Seriously. In that case, either the judge says that type training isn't important and carriers shouldn't bother retraining pilots who get pushed to other aircraft (which they wouldn't even have the authority to do), or they say that airlines can ignore seniority when doing furloughs and unilaterally turn decades of labor law precedent on its head.

Another option is to more or less freeze pilot pay regardless of the type they are flying which would take away a lot of the incentive for pilots to swap types. I can 100% see a judge doing that. For example, a widebody pilot is now without flying. Normally he/she would move down to the next type down which forces somebody else down and so on and so on and so on and so on. It might create 12 steps down the ladder. What you could do instead is either freeze the pilot's pay where they were or at one step down, but move them down to the lowest type for their actual flying (so a 777 Captain goes to a 717, but is paid as a 767 Captain where they would have gone). Then they layoff off the bottom of the list. That would prevent all the intermediate training events if you just move the pilot from the top to the bottom (while still a Captain). That's what I am talking about.
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
This might give pilots a cause for thought regarding the scope clause. I am not saying to give the store away, but just enough to allow a slightly bigger aircraft such as the E-175-2 which is a natural progression in replacing the E-175 down the line.
The airline business is never going to be the same, so it's time to get used to the new normal. The Covid-19 virus has been here for four months or so and look at the havoc it is wreaking on the airlines. Massive numbers of planes parked, a mere number of flights and many layoffs all across the airline work force.
We have seen the future and it does not look good for all sectors of the economy.



Scope will be relaxed just before ALPA gives away seniority, IOW, not even a glimmer of a chance.

Delta is already abrogating the regional rules in their contract that require them to maintain a certain ratio of mainline flying to regional flying I'm sure.
 
Varsity1
Posts: 2223
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 10:34 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
adv40624 wrote:
Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines.

I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
Robert Crandall

A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money.
Robert Crandall


If airlines in this country, even after decades of reorganization, consolidation, and optimization are still intrinsically unable to deliver an sustainable return on investment, then they simply shouldn't exist as private entities anymore.

If all the effort and all the suffering spent trying to turn this industry into something respectable didn't matter in the end, then deregulation has been a failure. Bring back the CAB or just let everyone walk to Disney World when everything reopens. Whenever the hell that may be.


Most of the over capacity can be traced to easy and cheap financing for airplanes.

Everyone with a million bux and a bad idea can order airplanes and start an airline. In economic expansions these airlines can seem marginally viable, but unsustainable through the entire business cycle.

If people paid the real risk adjusted financing costs for airplanes, this wouldn't be an issue as airplane financing would be expensive and few could afford it,
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
LCDFlight
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 10:44 pm

ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Whoa!! That appears to deserve its own thread?

AA E190, 757, 767, A330 all being retired semi-permanently? Is that correct? It's believable, so I am asking.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 10:45 pm

enilria wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
adv40624 wrote:
Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines.

I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'
Robert Crandall

A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money.
Robert Crandall


If airlines in this country, even after decades of reorganization, consolidation, and optimization are still intrinsically unable to deliver an sustainable return on investment, then they simply shouldn't exist as private entities anymore.

If all the effort and all the suffering spent trying to turn this industry into something respectable didn't matter in the end, then deregulation has been a failure. Bring back the CAB or just let everyone walk to Disney World when everything reopens. Whenever the hell that may be.

The current exemption process is de facto the CAB.


I was speaking more in a fit of momentary pique, but the CARES provisions are hardly the CAB. For one, as pivotal as it was for airlines' survival, CARES and its terms were optional unlike the authority of the CAB pre-deregulation. Second, the mechanics of the CARES conditions are nothing like the CAB's. CARES just temporarily limits airlines' ability to drop cities and let go of workers. CAB explicitly sought to limit competition by setting route authorities and fare minimums. What the DOT has now is both much more ad hoc and motivated by completely different interests.

To restate my half-serious point from earlier and to limit any confusion: If Bob Crandall's words still stand, if the last forty years couldn't produce a financially sustainable deregulated airline industry in this country, if the idea of a financially sustainable deregulated airline industry is in fact impossible, then deregulation has been a failure and the industry can only continue to exist so long as investors continue to act against their own good sense and best interest by propping it up.

And if that's the case, eventually they'll all wise up like Buffett and stay the hell away. The best case scenario then is for Uncle Sam to set route authorities and fare levels like the olden days. Worst case everyone can walk to Florida for Spring Break.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 10:48 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Whoa!! That appears to deserve its own thread?

AA E190, 757, 767, A330 all being retired semi-permanently? Is that correct? It's believable, so I am asking.


There was a thread on the AA fleet retirements maybe a couple weeks ago but since it isn't about DL it's probably a few pages back by now.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2598
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 10:52 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Whoa!! That appears to deserve its own thread?

AA E190, 757, 767, A330 all being retired semi-permanently? Is that correct? It's believable, so I am asking.


Feel free to read the earnings thread or the AA fleet thread. This has already been announced publicly.

enilria wrote:
Another option is to more or less freeze pilot pay regardless of the type they are flying which would take away a lot of the incentive for pilots to swap types. I can 100% see a judge doing that. For example, a widebody pilot is now without flying. Normally he/she would move down to the next type down which forces somebody else down and so on and so on and so on and so on. It might create 12 steps down the ladder. What you could do instead is either freeze the pilot's pay where they were or at one step down, but move them down to the lowest type for their actual flying (so a 777 Captain goes to a 717, but is paid as a 767 Captain where they would have gone). Then they layoff off the bottom of the list. That would prevent all the intermediate training events if you just move the pilot from the top to the bottom (while still a Captain). That's what I am talking about.


Even just trying to implement that would be a major headache. Not to mention you are forcing them into a certain base/type which is likely not where they want to be and I see no way that you can get around that since that is the whole purpose of the displacement bids. If they all wanted to be on the most junior equipment, it wouldn't be a problem but that isn't the case.
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MSPNWA
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 10:53 pm

bigb wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Okay, but I don't believe that to be the same thing as the dramatic post-CARES Act (October and onward) bid that UA and now DL has released that displaces thousands and gives us an idea of potential furloughs. That is the type of bid package I'm talking about. My understanding of what you're mentioning has to do with imminent fleet retirements and subsequent short-term staffing adjustments.


No that is a similar displacement vacancy bid that UA and DL have undertaken. It also provide a pilot staffing outlook going into next year. This bid packet includes the early outs and those who have been a approved for the LOA that was offered by AA. AA has been ahead of DL and UA both in terms of offering early outs and LOAs to reduce staffing and staffing costs. Not to say there won’t be furloughs. I don’t foresee them being as bad as DL or UA.


Oh okay, thanks! Do you know the number of pilots needed by the 4Q? AA has been very proactive on this which would prove my point. It's just that I don't remember seeing details out in the public. AA's early retirement and voluntary leave programs and potentially a higher capacity plan than UA and DL could explain a much lower displacement. But the latter would you question if AA has the right plan or needs to be more aggressive in shrinking. If it's more of the former, then good job AA.
 
bigb
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:11 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
bigb wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

Okay, but I don't believe that to be the same thing as the dramatic post-CARES Act (October and onward) bid that UA and now DL has released that displaces thousands and gives us an idea of potential furloughs. That is the type of bid package I'm talking about. My understanding of what you're mentioning has to do with imminent fleet retirements and subsequent short-term staffing adjustments.


No that is a similar displacement vacancy bid that UA and DL have undertaken. It also provide a pilot staffing outlook going into next year. This bid packet includes the early outs and those who have been a approved for the LOA that was offered by AA. AA has been ahead of DL and UA both in terms of offering early outs and LOAs to reduce staffing and staffing costs. Not to say there won’t be furloughs. I don’t foresee them being as bad as DL or UA.


Oh okay, thanks! Do you know the number of pilots needed by the 4Q? AA has been very proactive on this which would prove my point. It's just that I don't remember seeing details out in the public. AA's early retirement and voluntary leave programs and potentially a higher capacity plan than UA and DL could explain a much lower displacement. But the latter would you question if AA has the right plan or needs to be more aggressive in shrinking. If it's more of the former, then good job AA.


Something to keep in mind is that AA has always had more Narrowbody A/C that was needed to staff.

Total headcount August is 12,674 - November at 10,060 = 2614 overstaffed.
 
ABEguy
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:15 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Whoa!! That appears to deserve its own thread?

AA E190, 757, 767, A330 all being retired semi-permanently? Is that correct? It's believable, so I am asking.


I thought it has been discussed already on here but yes. 190s, 75/76 and a330-300s are already gone. 15 a330-200s are going into long term storage until at least 2022. All those pilot bid statuses are officially gone on the next bid effective this Sept. New statuses were added. MIA 787 and CLT 737/777.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:21 pm

bigb wrote:
Something to keep in mind is that AA has always had more Narrowbody A/C that was needed to staff.

Total headcount August is 12,674 - November at 10,060 = 2614 overstaffed.


Thanks. so on the surface it appears their plans are for more capacity than DL in 4Q.

To me that feels like too much capacity. But it's a ways off. It could be right. (Hopefully)
 
bigb
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:24 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
bigb wrote:
Something to keep in mind is that AA has always had more Narrowbody A/C that was needed to staff.

Total headcount August is 12,674 - November at 10,060 = 2614 overstaffed.


Thanks. so on the surface it appears their plans are for more capacity than DL in 4Q.

To me that feels like too much capacity. But it's a ways off. It could be right. (Hopefully)


Right now, I am see on avg 40-70 percent LF on flights that I am working or looking at on with a few below that. People are starting to fly again.
 
ABEguy
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:33 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
bigb wrote:
Something to keep in mind is that AA has always had more Narrowbody A/C that was needed to staff.

Total headcount August is 12,674 - November at 10,060 = 2614 overstaffed.


Thanks. so on the surface it appears their plans are for more capacity than DL in 4Q.

To me that feels like too much capacity. But it's a ways off. It could be right. (Hopefully)


It does appear that AA is more aggressive in adding flights for June than DAL and UAL.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:39 pm

enilria wrote:
Delta is already abrogating the regional rules in their contract that require them to maintain a certain ratio of mainline flying to regional flying I'm sure.

35 Large RJs are parked until a flow down is provided. Ratios are present on the UA and AA scope clause, but I do not believe it is present for DL.
 
KFTG
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:43 pm

TWA302 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
They aren't going to furlough 7000 pilots.


Why not? Larger companies with a stronger revenue bottom line (in the travel industry) have done the same thing furloughing more. Never say never. DL will do whatever it takes to stay afloat. I hope they don't but anything is possible.

A displacement is not synonymous with a furlough. It would be nice if the people writing these articles knew what they were talking about.

Delta is not going to furlough 7000. It is clock bait.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 14, 2020 11:46 pm

bigb wrote:
Right now, I am see on avg 40-70 percent LF on flights that I am working or looking at on with a few below that. People are starting to fly again.

It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 12:20 am

Enilira,

Nothing like this has ever happened before, so of course it is not even been asked for previously. This is the greatest disruption in the history of commercial aviation and no airline has filed Ch11 since the laws on union contracts were changed that was seeking relief from a 30-50% reduction in operations.
Nothing like this has ever happened before, so of course it is not even been asked for previously. This is the greatest disruption in the history of commercial aviation and no airline has filed Ch11 since the laws on union contracts were changed that was seeking relief from a 30-50% reduction in operations.


I get it, you don’t like airline pilot contracts, but the Constitution, Federal Labor Law and 80 years of legal precedent aren’t going away and there isn’t a mysterious “it’s an emergency” clause. Bankruptcy Courts have dealt with all kinds of “never before” events and the parties negotiated agreements. One exception was the auto companies where politics tipped the scales in favor of the unions and against the creditors. That’s certainly possible here.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 12:55 am

From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:23 am

BravoOne wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Truly unfortunate name, given the current circumstances...


I thought that too.



Don't think that's how he pronounces it. Sounds like Lotter?


Correct. “Lawter”
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:26 am

Revelation wrote:
bigb wrote:
Right now, I am see on avg 40-70 percent LF on flights that I am working or looking at on with a few below that. People are starting to fly again.

It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.


They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:31 am

MSPNWA wrote:
It's hard to process how bad this news is. My thoughts are with the junior ranks. This is going to be a rough time.

tphuang wrote:
Again, not sure what AA is doing. They should be cutting the most. Looks like UA/DL is trying pretty hard here to avoid chapter 11.


I find this funny. As of yesterday, DL had announced no major shakeup plan in pilot staffing. And as of today they're still not close to an agreement with the union on an early retirement plan. And that is a key tool to prevent the downward pressure of displacements in the pilot ranks. AA was proactive in that area, and they deserve credit for it. I bet they'll get their displacement plan out soon enough. So the question is still what is DL doing.

tphuang wrote:
Also, putting A350 in LAX implies they will continue to do TPAC flights there (vs UA who has no such plans). And I think they are also closing 717 at NYC, which would indicate downgauging on some of the routes to RJs.


A lack of a base doesn't mean no flying at all. UA can fairly easily cover the downsized LAX network with the SFO base since LAX flights have a shared destination as an SFO flight. DL probably will put more priority into LAX, and SEA isn't as realistic as a crew base to cover LAX. Hence I'm not surprised DL is opening a 350 base there.


I think what DL is likely doing is highlighting what the pressures are post 10/1 in an effort to drive as many voluntary opt outs as they can, but the smart guys at the high end of the list or age wise are going to wait to see if there’s a bridge to retirement.

The training costs here from seat moves are going to be astronomical...
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:32 am

LCDFlight wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787.


Whoa!! That appears to deserve its own thread?

AA E190, 757, 767, A330 all being retired semi-permanently? Is that correct? It's believable, so I am asking.


Not relevant to this thread but that’s pretty old news.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:47 am

I’m looking at the projected bases for May ‘21. What equipment is “765?” I know that 7ER is 757/767.
 
cbphoto
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:57 am

NYCAAer wrote:
I’m looking at the projected bases for May ‘21. What equipment is “765?” I know that 7ER is 757/767.


Pretty sure that’s the 767-400. Delta has its own pilot group for the -400s.
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 6:00 am

Revelation wrote:
It's pretty amazing how the world has gone from a shortage of pilots to a (presumed) surplus of pilots in a matter of months.

It's been said before, but I'll say it again: the volatility in the airline business is crazy!

Add to that the capital intensive nature of the business and it's hard to believe people want to be in this industry.

Everything set up for billions of profits and long careers and then, boom, it all gets rebooted!

I guess there still is strong appeal to being in the airline industry, but you better be a very resilient type if you want to be in the industry.

One thing young entrants to the industry can be sure of, is this isn't the last boom/bust cycle they will be seeing.



The drastic changes we’ve seen all over the world in a matter of months are crazy, period. Even in January/February people would have looked at you strangely if you said life is about to change in mere weeks. I think many of us have learned a lot about the fragility of things we take for granted, including life itself. Hopefully, we’ll come out on the other end even stronger.
 
Westerwaelder
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 6:25 am

catiii wrote:
Revelation wrote:
bigb wrote:
Right now, I am see on avg 40-70 percent LF on flights that I am working or looking at on with a few below that. People are starting to fly again.

It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.


They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


What figure does the data out there suggest?
 
bigb
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 12:15 pm

catiii wrote:
Revelation wrote:
bigb wrote:
Right now, I am see on avg 40-70 percent LF on flights that I am working or looking at on with a few below that. People are starting to fly again.

It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.


They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?
 
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NWAESC
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 12:29 pm

catiii wrote:
I think what DL is likely doing is highlighting what the pressures are post 10/1 in an effort to drive as many voluntary opt outs as they can, but the smart guys at the high end of the list or age wise are going to wait to see if there’s a bridge to retirement.

The training costs here from seat moves are going to be astronomical...


I think you're right. And DL has made mention of working with DALPA to put something together.

As for training costs, when the #1 guy on the system list gets displaced, it makes for one hell of a cascade.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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lightsaber
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 12:39 pm

bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.


They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?

If claiming data, post a link. Claiming anecdotal evidence is sufficient to claim "in my opinion I am seeing..."

This is an emotional time and best to discuss to actual data or observations.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
dcaproducer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 1:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:

They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?

If claiming data, post a link. Claiming anecdotal evidence is sufficient to claim "in my opinion I am seeing..."

This is an emotional time and best to discuss to actual data or observations.

Lightsaber


On this subject, when airport start releasing April numbers and then eventually May numbers we'll be able to see if passenger traffic is increasing. Also, if airlines start to add flights/frequency that would be an indication of increased passenger loads.

Just a hunch, I would assume domestic flights to destinations in Florida and the gulf coast will do better over the next 90 days as some people decide they need a vacation. I can speak from a business perspective that my clients, with the exception of one government client, aren't looking at any travel until late summer or early fall.
 
Flaps
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 2:04 pm

With reference to scope:
We know that it isn't going away. What MIGHT be possible given the dire situation is the union and company negotiating a new, lower floor that would permit mainline to fly the 175-E2 at a rate that could be profitable. Obviously operating costs involve much more than crew compensation. Mainline unit costs overall will never be in line with regional unit costs which will remain a significant barrier. That said however, this situation is dire enough that it could provide a one time opportunity to alter the mainline/regional balance while still protecting mainline jobs in all areas. Many lower seniority crews and staff might be willing to make that exchange rather than be out on the street. It could be the one situation where decreasing scope as opposed to increasing it could actually be beneficial for all. Then again, maybe not. Its a very emotionally charged issue and emotion doesn't often play well when it comes to negotiation. Lots of ego involved in some quarters as well which is equally unhelpful .

Oh well, its a thought anyway.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 2:18 pm

Westerwaelder wrote:
catiii wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.


They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


What figure does the data out there suggest?


National throughput at TSA yesterday was 234,928, down from 2,611,234 YOY so an around 91% decrease, which has tracked consistently over the last month.

At my carrier, with an around 92% reductions in # of flights yesterday (not ASMs based), we had a booked LF lower than 25% consistent with the last 30 days. I will say flown LFs are in the 40s % wise but that as we real time cancel flights with non existent loads and further consolidate the # of flights. It's not indicative of people returning.
Last edited by catiii on Fri May 15, 2020 2:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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