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catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 2:20 pm

bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's nice to read this, but we also have to keep in mind something like 90% of the world's airliners are parked.


They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?


I'm saying that your anecdotal LFs are not indicative of what is going on in the marketplace.
 
silentbob
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 2:28 pm

Flaps wrote:
With reference to scope:
We know that it isn't going away. What MIGHT be possible given the dire situation is the union and company negotiating a new, lower floor that would permit mainline to fly the 175-E2 at a rate that could be profitable. Obviously operating costs involve much more than crew compensation. Mainline unit costs overall will never be in line with regional unit costs which will remain a significant barrier. That said however, this situation is dire enough that it could provide a one time opportunity to alter the mainline/regional balance while still protecting mainline jobs in all areas. Many lower seniority crews and staff might be willing to make that exchange rather than be out on the street. It could be the one situation where decreasing scope as opposed to increasing it could actually be beneficial for all. Then again, maybe not. Its a very emotionally charged issue and emotion doesn't often play well when it comes to negotiation. Lots of ego involved in some quarters as well which is equally unhelpful .

Oh well, its a thought anyway.

Interesting point, but that transfers the job losses to the regionals. If all of the 175 flying went in house, that could effectively shut down someone like Republic and result in even more job losses as the flight attendants, mechanics and management would all be looking for new employment.
 
bigb
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 2:36 pm

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:

They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?


I'm saying that your anecdotal LFs are not indicative of what is going on in the marketplace.


Hence why I made clear in my statement of avg LF I am experiencing with the flights I worked or looked at for travel purposes. I know don’t know what the overall looks like because I don’t have access to other carriers loads. But it wouldn’t surprise to see other US carriers seeing similar loads on avg on reduced scheduling. TSA numbers also show a steady increase of folks returning week over week as well.
 
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DL747400
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 3:36 pm

There were pilot furloughs at DL following 9/11. The COVID19 crisis is many times worse than 9/11 ever was. You can bet your boots there will be significant pilot furloughs at DL later this year and into 2021 if there are not enough takers for the voluntary severance and early retirement packages. Same is true at most carriers. Anyone who believes otherwise is naive and ill-informed.
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 3:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:

They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?

If claiming data, post a link. Claiming anecdotal evidence is sufficient to claim "in my opinion I am seeing..."

This is an emotional time and best to discuss to actual data or observations.

Lightsaber

Ok. New York Times ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/busi ... uture.html ) says:

Even as Delta and the other major airlines in the United States dramatically slash schedules, they are averaging an anemic 23 passengers on each domestic flight and losing $350 million to $400 million a day as expenses like payroll, rent and aircraft maintenance far exceed the money they are bringing in. Passenger traffic is down about 94 percent and half of the industry’s 6,215 planes are parked at major airports and desert airstrips, according to Airlines for America, a trade group.

Yet, devastating as the downturn has been, the future is even more bleak. With much of the world closed for business, and no widely available vaccine in sight, it may be months, if not years, before airlines operate as many flights as they did before the crisis. Even when people start flying again, the industry could be transformed, much as it was after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. And airline executives need only look in the not-distant past to see how lesser crises sank carriers that were household names like Pan Am and Trans World Airlines.

As for the recovery prospects:

There’s little indication that a recovery is coming soon. Most industry analysts and executives expect years to pass before airlines fly as many passengers as they did before the pandemic. Even then, a rebound may come in fits and starts, propelled by medical advancements, an economic rebound and shifts in the public’s tolerance for risk.

Take China, for example. The number of domestic flights there started to recover in mid-February, but plateaued in early March at just over 40 percent of levels before the outbreak, according to the International Air Transport Association, a global industry group.

Poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of people are likely to wait on the sidelines for quite some time. According to one recent survey by the Democracy Fund + U.C.L.A. Nationscape Project, 60 percent of people would “definitely or probably” not fly even if stay-at-home orders were lifted on the advice of public health officials.

The story is dated May 10th.

So I was wrong about the number of planes parked, I was thinking of the traffic count instead.

And this is all sad news. I hope the recovery is better than many think, but we need to plan for the worst while we hope for the best, as Kirby says in the article.
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:10 pm

Interesting twitter thread on the realities of international travel these days, in this case to Hong Kong:

https://twitter.com/willripleyCNN/statu ... 5841350656

Made to stay at quarantine hotel till covid-19 tests results were in. If the test indicated he had it, straight to the hospital via ambulance. If it did not, fourteen day self quarantine with wrist bracelet and monitoring app running on his phone, with stiff penalties for violating quarantine.
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bigb
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:

They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?

If claiming data, post a link. Claiming anecdotal evidence is sufficient to claim "in my opinion I am seeing..."

This is an emotional time and best to discuss to actual data or observations.

Lightsaber


There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:45 pm

bigb wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
bigb wrote:

Are you questioning what I am seeing and tracking with the flights I am seeing or working?

If claiming data, post a link. Claiming anecdotal evidence is sufficient to claim "in my opinion I am seeing..."

This is an emotional time and best to discuss to actual data or observations.

Lightsaber


There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.


And from the end of March how much capacity has your airline reduced (your airline was probably flying a full March schedule), what's your booked LF at the beginning of each day, and how many flights per day is your airline CXL in real time?

If I have 100 passenger spread out over 100 flights, and I cancel 99 flights, guess what: my system LF goes up for that day.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:46 pm

bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:

TSA numbers also show a steady increase of folks returning week over week as well.


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:48 pm

bigb wrote:
There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.


Average loads are up, but it does not mean demand is up.

May is the first true month with airlines running planned limited Covid-19 schedules (March & April where largely full of cancellations). Also airlines are operating some of their smallest equipment on routes.

For example at United it was mention in a townhall with a 90% schedule reduction this month 80% of flights are booked 50% or less, but about 10% are booked at 70%+ of customers which makes avoiding seating customers next to each other difficult. Similarly United has parked many larger aircraft and instead the smaller A319 and 737-700 are the two most frequently used models in the planned June schedule as an example.
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CRJ5000
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:55 pm

bigb wrote:

There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.


At the end of March carriers were flying nearly full schedules as the major drawdowns happened in April and even more so in May.
Now that there are is only a fraction of the capacity that there was in March, naturally those flights will be more crowded as there are significantly less available seats. Loads would still be abysmal if airlines were still flying their March schedules. Even 100% load factors will absolutely bleed money until carriers are operating a majority of their regular schedule.
It's nice that the TSA daily pax numbers are trending up, but let's not kid ourselves... We're still only at 10% of what we were a year ago.
Last edited by CRJ5000 on Fri May 15, 2020 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
32andBelow
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:55 pm

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
CRJ5000
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 4:59 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Though there is a bit of a trend up, after quickly looking through the different dates, I couldn't find a single day where we even reached 10% of last years numbers.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:12 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:

TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Though there is a bit of a trend up, after quickly looking through the different dates, I couldn't find a single day where we even reached 10% of last years numbers.


10% of 2019 levels will come soon based on the current trends. Each day has been up (generally 20-25%, some higher), in the week over week comparison. Compare Thursday to last Thursday, Wednesday to last Wednesday, etc. The trend is in the right direction, for sure, but still a much shallower slope than the drop off. My data predicts over 260k traveling today, which will be right around 10% of 2019 numbers.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:12 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Have they been steady in the -90s or no?
 
LCDFlight
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:14 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


Very nice info. It looks like 10-20% increases week over week for 2 weeks. Even seeing a sustained 5% weekly increase would be amazing. By my calculation, 5% weekly increase would be a return to normal in 1 year. Right now, it seems very optimistic.
 
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:14 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I put the data into a spreadsheet and found that 5/8 to 5/14 is up +25% from 5/1 to 5/7.

I also found that the week of 5/8 to 5/14 of 2020 flew only 8% of the passengers of the same week in 2019.

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JoseSalazar
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:17 pm

Date 2020 2019 WoW WoW % change
5/14/20 234,928 2,611,324 44,065 23.1%
5/13/20 176,667 2,343,675 36,258 25.8%
5/12/20 163,205 2,191,387 32,604 25.0%
5/11/20 215,645 2,512,315 51,953 31.7%
5/10/20 200,815 2,419,114 30,561 18.0%
5/9/20 169,580 1,985,942 35,319 26.3%
5/8/20 215,444 2,602,631 43,881 25.6%
5/7/20 190,863 2,555,342 36,168 23.4%
5/6/20 140,409 2,270,662 20,780 17.4%
5/5/20 130,601 2,106,597 19,688 17.8%
5/4/20 163,692 2,470,969 43,838 36.6%
5/3/20 170,254 2,512,598 41,379 32.1%
5/2/20 134,261 1,968,278 19,802 17.3%
5/1/20 171,563 2,546,029 48,099 39.0%
4/30/20 154,695 2,499,461 43,068 38.6%
4/29/20 119,629 2,256,442 20,661 20.9%
4/28/20 110,913 2,102,068 18,054 19.4%
4/27/20 119,854 2,412,770 20,510 20.6%
4/26/20 128,875 2,506,809 23,493 22.3%
4/25/20 114,459 1,990,464 17,223 17.7%
4/24/20 123,464 2,521,897 17,079 16.1%
4/23/20 111,627 2,526,961 16,542 17.4%
 
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:18 pm

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

Searching Bing, with "TSA numbers" found this:

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I added days of the week for reference and my own comments in parenthesis ():

Date Total Traveler Throughput Total Traveler Throughput
(1 Year Ago - Same Weekday)
5/14/2020 234,928 2,611,324 (Thursday)
5/13/2020 176,667 2,343,675 (Wednesday)
5/12/2020 163,205 2,191,387 (Tuesday, a normal slow day)
5/11/2020 215,645 2,512,315 (Monday, a normally busy day)
5/10/2020 200,815 2,419,114 (Sunday, normally the busiest, but for some reason not this 2019 Sunday)
5/9/2020 169,580 1,985,942 (Saturday)
5/8/2020 215,444 2,602,631 (Friday, a busy day)
5/7/2020 190,863 2,555,342 (Thursday)
5/6/2020 140,409 2,270,662 (Wednesday)
5/5/2020 130,601 2,106,597 (Tuesday, again normally slow)
5/4/2020 163,692 2,470,969 (Monday, again normally busy)
5/3/2020 170,254 2,512,598 (Sunday, which is almost the busiest)
5/2/2020 134,261 1,968,278 (Saturday, this one 2019 was unusually slow)
5/1/2020 171,563 2,546,029 (Friday)
4/30/2020 154,695 2,499,461 (Thursday)
4/29/2020 119,629 2,256,442 (Wednesday)
4/28/2020 110,913 2,102,068 (Tuesday)
4/27/2020 119,854 2,412,770 (Monday)
4/26/2020 128,875 2,506,809 (Sunday)
4/25/2020 114,459 1,990,464 (Saturday)
4/24/2020 123,464 2,521,897 (Friday)
4/23/2020 111,627 2,526,961 (Thursday)
4/22/2020 98,968 2,254,209 (Wednesday)
4/21/2020 92,859 2,227,475 (Tuesday)
4/20/2020 99,344 2,594,171 (Monday)
4/19/2020 105,382 2,356,802 (Sunday)
4/18/2020 97,236 1,988,205 (Saturday)
4/17/2020 106,385 2,457,133 (Friday)
4/16/2020 95,085 2,616,158 (Thursday)
4/15/2020 90,784 2,317,381 (Wednesday)
4/14/2020 87,534 2,208,688 (Having this Tuesday the bottom makes since, low travel day on the least popular day to travel, and not much spring break circa 2020 by this time...)


My :twocents: is traffic went from < 5% of prior traffic up to 10%. So actually the data supports both sides of the argument. These are scary numbers.

Before data varied 2 to 2.6 (ish) million in 2019, depending on the workday. Please recall Sunday April 21 was Easter last year and April 12th this year, so the schedules have a year to year seasonal variation (spring break) 2020 vs. 2019.


Low 233k (doing Friday to Thursday just because that is when the data today expires):
4/14 87k (low) to 106k (high for week)
4/17 to 4/23 92k to 111k
4/24 to 4/30 100k to 154k
5/1 to 5/8 134k to 190k

So a obvious growth trend.


So we are seeing growth, not great growth.
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NWAESC
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:20 pm

There is another user on here updating a Google Doc with daily totals, Week over Week comps and more. It's been really useful. The thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445801
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:34 pm

NWAESC wrote:
There is another user on here updating a Google Doc with daily totals, Week over Week comps and more. It's been really useful. The thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445801

Thanks for the pointer. My data was done a bit differently. They compare one day to the day 365 days earlier. I am comparing this week to the week 365 days earlier. I'm trying to smooth out the normal fluxuations within a week. We're getting similar results.
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Silver1SWA
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 5:50 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
bigb wrote:

There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.

It's nice that the TSA daily pax numbers are trending up, but let's not kid ourselves... We're still only at 10% of what we were a year ago.


On the road to recovery you have to start somewhere, starting on the low end. Anything above near zero is an improvement right now. Nobody is expecting it to snap back to 2019 overnight. But travel ticking up slightly as some states take baby steps toward partial reopenings seems encouraging to me.
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KMCOFlyer
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 6:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
Made to stay at quarantine hotel till covid-19 tests results were in. If the test indicated he had it, straight to the hospital via ambulance. If it did not, fourteen day self quarantine with wrist bracelet and monitoring app running on his phone, with stiff penalties for violating quarantine.


Why would they be immediately sent to the hospital just because of a positive test result for COVID-19 (especially if they have mild or no symptoms)? Shouldn’t they be saving the hospitals capacity for those who have severe symptoms instead of putting people with no symptoms into the hospital?
 
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STT757
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Fri May 15, 2020 6:46 pm

Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?
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Revelation
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 1:54 am

STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... S28M/edit# has the TSA data in table and graph form.

Since it's national data it may not be a one day phenomena as you suggest.

For me, the 'stuff has hit the fan' day was the day the NBA player got sick and they suspended play.

Apparently that was 3/11/2020.

The TSA suggests the data was in free fall for the whole month of March.
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catiii
Posts: 3514
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 2:07 am

Revelation wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... S28M/edit# has the TSA data in table and graph form.

Since it's national data it may not be a one day phenomena as you suggest.

For me, the 'stuff has hit the fan' day was the day the NBA player got sick and they suspended play.

Apparently that was 3/11/2020.

The TSA suggests the data was in free fall for the whole month of March.


3/11 was also when the President implemented the Europe restrictions and addressed the nation.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7934
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 2:53 am

Asia started falling off at the start of Jan when they pulled down China flying.

Feb saw a declining amount of TPAC travel but domestic held steady.

First week of March was relatively normal but we didn’t know which way things were going to go. TATL starting falling off since that’s when it was getting bad in Italy.

Week of March 9th was when got weird in the US and the last real quasi normal week of domestic travel and business.
3/11 was the first SHTF day in the US when we saw the sport seasons suspended, college campuses close,
Companies throw up immediate travel bans, and stuff started closing fast.
Week of 3/16 Is when we basically went into work from home mode and all non essential stuff shutting down.
 
n9801f
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 3:37 am

lightsaber wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

Searching Bing, with "TSA numbers" found this:

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I added days of the week for reference and my own comments in parenthesis ():

Date Total Traveler Throughput Total Traveler Throughput
(1 Year Ago - Same Weekday)
5/14/2020 234,928 2,611,324 (Thursday)
5/13/2020 176,667 2,343,675 (Wednesday)
5/12/2020 163,205 2,191,387 (Tuesday, a normal slow day)
5/11/2020 215,645 2,512,315 (Monday, a normally busy day)
5/10/2020 200,815 2,419,114 (Sunday, normally the busiest, but for some reason not this 2019 Sunday)
5/9/2020 169,580 1,985,942 (Saturday)
5/8/2020 215,444 2,602,631 (Friday, a busy day)
5/7/2020 190,863 2,555,342 (Thursday)
5/6/2020 140,409 2,270,662 (Wednesday)
5/5/2020 130,601 2,106,597 (Tuesday, again normally slow)
5/4/2020 163,692 2,470,969 (Monday, again normally busy)
5/3/2020 170,254 2,512,598 (Sunday, which is almost the busiest)
5/2/2020 134,261 1,968,278 (Saturday, this one 2019 was unusually slow)
5/1/2020 171,563 2,546,029 (Friday)
4/30/2020 154,695 2,499,461 (Thursday)
4/29/2020 119,629 2,256,442 (Wednesday)
4/28/2020 110,913 2,102,068 (Tuesday)
4/27/2020 119,854 2,412,770 (Monday)
4/26/2020 128,875 2,506,809 (Sunday)
4/25/2020 114,459 1,990,464 (Saturday)
4/24/2020 123,464 2,521,897 (Friday)
4/23/2020 111,627 2,526,961 (Thursday)
4/22/2020 98,968 2,254,209 (Wednesday)
4/21/2020 92,859 2,227,475 (Tuesday)
4/20/2020 99,344 2,594,171 (Monday)
4/19/2020 105,382 2,356,802 (Sunday)
4/18/2020 97,236 1,988,205 (Saturday)
4/17/2020 106,385 2,457,133 (Friday)
4/16/2020 95,085 2,616,158 (Thursday)
4/15/2020 90,784 2,317,381 (Wednesday)
4/14/2020 87,534 2,208,688 (Having this Tuesday the bottom makes since, low travel day on the least popular day to travel, and not much spring break circa 2020 by this time...)


My :twocents: is traffic went from < 5% of prior traffic up to 10%. So actually the data supports both sides of the argument. These are scary numbers.

Before data varied 2 to 2.6 (ish) million in 2019, depending on the workday. Please recall Sunday April 21 was Easter last year and April 12th this year, so the schedules have a year to year seasonal variation (spring break) 2020 vs. 2019.


Low 233k (doing Friday to Thursday just because that is when the data today expires):
4/14 87k (low) to 106k (high for week)
4/17 to 4/23 92k to 111k
4/24 to 4/30 100k to 154k
5/1 to 5/8 134k to 190k

So a obvious growth trend.


So we are seeing growth, not great growth.
Lightsaber


The way you show this is the most meaningful comparison, IMO: year-over-year, same day of week. E.G. compare Friday 5/15/20 to 5/17/19.

This type of comparison removes the effect of seasonality (traffic in the Northern Hemisphere is growing each week as it ramps up to summer) and also day-of-week variation (Fridays are usually stronger than Tuesdays, etc.)

Just be careful with holidays like Easter or (in US) July 4 that shift dates or weekdays each year.
 
tjerome
Posts: 337
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 4:18 am

STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?


I'd say more around March 11th, that's when the international travel restrictions were announced and the NBA season was suspended. Things I believe definitely started to go down around late February but the falling off a cliff happened that week IMO.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2154
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 7:30 am

In the early stages of such a massive change in staffing, the company will start with the least seniority getting shown the door as the early retirement / voluntary separations are worked out. Often there is a 2 or 3 year probationary period where that entire group needs to be gone before any others are touched..

DL, even with the bailout is paying 20% of the wages of those retained thru the summer. They will want to be dropping any now that they are sure will be gone way before then to save cash. They are doing projections at the worst, and at a couple of other mid points.,but talking the worst. I would guess 1,500 or so will be gone shortly, they will also hope that several thousand take voluntary packages. After a few months they will know if the number needs to be 4,000 or 7,000.

It is quite possible the scope clause will be adjusted - but bringing more RJ flying back into mainline, but at a new lower agreed salary. That would preserve union jobs at the expense of all of the pilots that work for the commuter airlines. A company and union with good relations can make compromises that will help with future success, one where the parties are at war, things can look like the Shilo Battlefield. When the bottom fell out of the auto industry in 1981-82 Ford did better with their union on reducing the reductions than GM, but Chrysler was in such poor shape that it was a ghost of itself after that. When things picked back up Ford was healthier, and a lot of UAW workers were saved from the axe.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 10:40 am

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.



That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 10:45 am

STT757 wrote:
Can someone point to an exact date in which air travel traffic fell off a cliff? I work in Lower Manhattan and commute in from New Jersey and I can remember vividly the day I saw a change in vehicle traffic levels but I do not recall the exact date, it was a Tuesday (perhaps 3/10 or 3/17).

I drove in on Monday that week and encountered the regular 90 minute commute with back ups on the Newark bay extension of the NJ turnpike and at the Holland tunnel. The next morning, Tuesday, was so weird because I drove straight in with absolutely no traffic. I was not expecting that., it was so strange, more like early Sunday morning traffic than a Tuesday. That's when I felt we were in for something unprecedented, it's pretty much been like that ever since.

I've been seeing more vehicle traffic (especially trucks) the last two weeks but it's still a fraction of the regular commute. I'm getting to work in 50 minutes vs. 90 minutes. And that's with the opportunistic contruction the Turnpike has started by closing half the lanes of the Turnpike each morning for construction and the Port Authority has gone full bore into construction at the mouth of the Holland tunnel which sees almost half of the approach toll lanes closed.

I'm curious to see if passenger traffic fell off on the same date?



I do International Turns out of JFK

The first week of March we saw a noticeable drop outbound, but were full on inbounds as people rushed to get home.

By the second week of March, things fell off a cliff
 
Westerwaelder
Posts: 219
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:27 pm

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 11:58 am

catiii wrote:
Westerwaelder wrote:
catiii wrote:

They’re not. Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t reflect the data out there.


What figure does the data out there suggest?


National throughput at TSA yesterday was 234,928, down from 2,611,234 YOY so an around 91% decrease, which has tracked consistently over the last month.

At my carrier, with an around 92% reductions in # of flights yesterday (not ASMs based), we had a booked LF lower than 25% consistent with the last 30 days. I will say flown LFs are in the 40s % wise but that as we real time cancel flights with non existent loads and further consolidate the # of flights. It's not indicative of people returning.


Would that not tally with the quoted 90% of airliners being parked?
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 12:54 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.



That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers


It is partially true. You're right in the fact that there has been a noticeable jump over the past few weeks but traffic is in the -90% range. Even on the best day it is yet to reach 10% of last years number. Hopefully the coming weeks see the upward trend continue now that some stay at home orders are lifted and there is actually a reason for some people to travel.
 
bigb
Posts: 1104
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 1:28 pm

LAXintl wrote:
bigb wrote:
There is no link, you have to take my word for it considering every flight I operate as a Captain, like to log in my comments section of my logbooks how many passengers I am carrying. Nor am I going to post photos of flights loads I have been looking at from our company travel site.... I'll tell you right now, my avg LF at the end of march was about 10-12% with my passenger count avg between 8-15. This past week I'm carrying about 53%-76% on avg with pax counts avg between 53 to 77 percent depending on the days of the week. Various flights on our travel site I am seeing the same as I have to calculate the the LF percentage to take into consideration of the flight load cap figure out my options as a commuter/non-rev.


Average loads are up, but it does not mean demand is up.

May is the first true month with airlines running planned limited Covid-19 schedules (March & April where largely full of cancellations). Also airlines are operating some of their smallest equipment on routes.

For example at United it was mention in a townhall with a 90% schedule reduction this month 80% of flights are booked 50% or less, but about 10% are booked at 70%+ of customers which makes avoiding seating customers next to each other difficult. Similarly United has parked many larger aircraft and instead the smaller A319 and 737-700 are the two most frequently used models in the planned June schedule as an example.


I wasn’t arguing demand is up, I was arguing folks are starting to return to flying from where we was in March when everything tanked.
 
bigb
Posts: 1104
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 1:30 pm

catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:
catiii wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.


You might want to look at those numbers, there as been a steady increase of 25% wow. We aren’t close to last years numbers, but we are trending in the upward direction.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 5563
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 1:31 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.



That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers


Dead cat bounce.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5907
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 3:03 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
catiii wrote:

TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.



That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers


Dead cat bounce.



I love when people are proven factually wrong and they keep arguing that they’re right.

As if saying it over and over again will change facts
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 5563
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 3:12 pm

I’m not saying pax counts aren’t UP, but going from 5% to 10% of a year ago is not very significant, especially when you look at the hurdles preventing even a return to 50% of last year—25% unemployment, major bankruptcies still to come, international travel restrictions, fear generated by media, the list goes on. We’re barely into the beginning of the fallout. Delta has a pretty good idea of the future.
 
BravoOne
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sat May 16, 2020 4:22 pm

I think this title is very misleading and does a disservice to the Delta pilot group although I have seen it posted with a Delta pilot website with caveats. The real number is a lot closer to 3000 depending on how an "early out program" is structured. If you were the bottom pilot on the seniority list as of today and they furloughed you it would take around four years to get back on the line. That is assuming they could get 1000 early outs, plus furlough another 2000 pilots. There would also be a number of voluntary leaves one would imagine especially if the pilot could get back on active duty.


It's going to be rough for a couple of years and that's assuming business is back o something resembling normal in the next four of five years. There remains a significant number of age 65 retirements over the next 10 years that will help accelerate this pace.
 
Cactusjuba
Posts: 218
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 17, 2020 3:40 am

Junior pilots by-and-large have listened to the village elders who have seen furloughs multiple times over the years. In fact, many of these junior pilots spent over a decade flying for other airlines, and have endured furloughs themselves.

The consensus seems to be this: voluntarily taking cuts to the contract won't stave off furloughs, they'll just pocket the savings and furlough based off staffing minimums anyways. Better to take a furlough and someday have a worthy career to return to, than fight for decades to restore what once had. History has precedent.
 
CX Flyboy
Posts: 6146
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 17, 2020 2:45 pm

KMCOFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Made to stay at quarantine hotel till covid-19 tests results were in. If the test indicated he had it, straight to the hospital via ambulance. If it did not, fourteen day self quarantine with wrist bracelet and monitoring app running on his phone, with stiff penalties for violating quarantine.


Why would they be immediately sent to the hospital just because of a positive test result for COVID-19 (especially if they have mild or no symptoms)? Shouldn’t they be saving the hospitals capacity for those who have severe symptoms instead of putting people with no symptoms into the hospital?


Getting off topic but this is done in Hong Kong because this is the best way to monitor affected people and to ensure that they do not mix with the general public and thus spread it to others (because people cannot be trusted unfortunately). The hospitals can handle the extra capacity as we have a pretty good health system here. This is why Hong Kong has ended up as one of the shining examples of how to handle this pandemic, with only 4 deaths and under 1100 total people infected, even though we are a crowded city of almost 8 million people, where any infectious disease would very easily spread if not handled properly.
 
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DL717
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 17, 2020 2:51 pm

32andBelow wrote:
catiii wrote:
bigb wrote:


TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.

This is totally false. There’s been large tsa increases week over week for the last 2 weeks.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


When you have this many aircraft parked and EWR/JFK and LGA have about 100 flights per day combined, and your baseline is a few thousand pax for the same airports, calling it a “large increase” is a joke.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
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DL717
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 17, 2020 2:54 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
catiii wrote:

TSA numbers, and I'll try and figure out a way to post them, have been consistently in the -90% YOY since April over the national system. There is no steady increase WOW.



That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers


Dead cat bounce.


About a foot off the ground from a normal bounce of 50-feet.

Folks, this is just getting started, and we haven’t even hit the recession/depression.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 17, 2020 3:04 pm

DL717 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers


Dead cat bounce.


About a foot off the ground from a normal bounce of 50-feet.

Folks, this is just getting started, and we haven’t even hit the recession/depression.


I believe things will bounce back for 2-3 months but then everyone will panic and think that it’s going to come back in the fall and there will be like no bookings at all for Oct/Nov/Dec.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4781
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 17, 2020 4:27 pm

DL717 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


That is not true

They has been a noticeable jump over the last few weeks in their numbers


Dead cat bounce.


About a foot off the ground from a normal bounce of 50-feet.

Folks, this is just getting started, and we haven’t even hit the recession/depression.

No one is saying it’s going to be normal. But it’s going to keep increasing through the summer. It can’t go from 0 to 100 in 5 minutes. Check back after Memorial Day.
 
FlyingFanatic20
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu May 21, 2020 4:07 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 21, 2020 4:19 am

LAXintl wrote:


Is it standard for it take a year to close down a base, or is Delta having a target date of Q2 in 2021 for places like CVG and the 7ER's in DTW/MSP/SLC in case traffic rebounds within that time and they can resume those operations again?
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1255
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Thu May 21, 2020 7:26 am

FlyingFanatic20 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:


Is it standard for it take a year to close down a base, or is Delta having a target date of Q2 in 2021 for places like CVG and the 7ER's in DTW/MSP/SLC in case traffic rebounds within that time and they can resume those operations again?


It is going to take a long time train the massive amount of pilots being displaced at Delta. With two whole fleets being parked and a third (717s) being significantly reduced, the trickle down effect will be huge. I’m sure those base closure dates take into account the time it takes to retrain crews on the equipment that will replace the airplanes leaving those bases.
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
catiii
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Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 24, 2020 3:11 am

Well there it is, note out from the MEC to pilots today that anyone hired in the last 3.5 years (around 2500 pilots) should anticipate being furloughed on Oct. 1 with this specific advice: “If there is an a opportunity to secure a job that will pay your bills for the next 12-24 months we advise you to take it.”
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4781
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Sun May 24, 2020 3:21 am

catiii wrote:
Well there it is, note out from the MEC to pilots today that anyone hired in the last 3.5 years (around 2500 pilots) should anticipate being furloughed on Oct. 1 with this specific advice: “If there is an a opportunity to secure a job that will pay your bills for the next 12-24 months we advise you to take it.”

Great news for the amazon contract holders

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