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JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 7:50 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
atlflyer wrote:
Demand will eventually return. Even in the epicenter of the coronavirus in NYC, people are getting out again and phase I of the reopening hasn’t even begun yet here. People are beginning to think about summer travel plans and Emirates will eventually need the 777-9 because they have ONE very congested hub.


People are very cautious about travelling these days and most i know are thinking of travelling inside their own country and making use of beach houses or farmhouses they have in the woods..Not so keen on travelling abroad


Agreed, travel abroad has lost its appeal for now. It is unlikely that EK will schedule 10 A380's to Wuhan or Macau.

In the US, my guess is that Los Vegas will take a long, long time to get back to pre-covid levels. The lets get drunk, and party shoulder to shoulder waking the sidewalks of the strip with people from everywhere. Everyone would return with a CV case we just spent months in isolation to avoid. Not happening any time soon.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 8:09 pm

Some fraction of the A380 fleet will have to be parked a long time.

EK subsidizes Dubai, not the other way around. Like all tourist economies, it will take some time. We'll debate Dubai a long time.


fcogafa wrote:
Heathrow had to rebuild and relocate a lot of taxiways to become A380 compliant, LAX had similar issues

LAX moved a runway because:
1. Two (probably all 4) needed to be rebuilt.
2. Moving the runways further apart allows 300 more opperations a day, up from 850.

Most of the costs were either needed or the A380 was used to expand capacity, reduce bottlenecks.


Lightsaber
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ltbewr
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 8:43 pm

EK is likely to become, as many airlines are doing, going to have a long term change in their service footprint and become a 'smaller' airline. They may still need the A380 on some routes, in particular high volume, long flights, with airports with capacity and slot restrictions that will return after the pandemic. They won't need as many or a majority of them, they can do some 'creative accounting', to write off older A380's
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 8:50 pm

ltbewr wrote:
EK is likely to become, as many airlines are doing, going to have a long term change in their service footprint and become a 'smaller' airline. They may still need the A380 on some routes, in particular high volume, long flights, with airports with capacity and slot restrictions that will return after the pandemic. They won't need as many or a majority of them, they can do some 'creative accounting', to write off older A380's

It's just an acceleration of the pre-covid trend. Profits were down. Competitors were encroaching. Hub bypass made DXB less valuable. A380 orders were canceled. A350 and 787 were ordered. Now in the covid era, A380 is more of a detriment than before. EK has already asked Airbus to delay the remaining aircraft on order. A 40% cutback seems reasonable under the circumstances.
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Jefford717
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 8:55 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised if EK retires its entire EA powered A380 and just operate the newer RR powered A380 to streamline maintenance to further reduce cost.

Unlike many here on A.net, I think the 779 has a place in EK’s future and wouldn’t be surprised of a top up order when traffic picks up around mid 2020. The difference in capacity between a380 and 779 is greater than 100 in EK’s layout and the 779 only has 2 engines.
 
vadodara
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 9:00 pm

Aither wrote:
Aviation for this part of the world is critical. No train or car alternatives. What do you expect ? Air India to take over the air traffic ?


To India, quiet possibly. If not Air India, some airline running a point 2 point service.

Aither wrote:
The biggest risk is to see the Dubai economy collapsing. But as everybody say, this crisis is different. It is not (yet, if ever) a financial crisis. There is plenty of money out there and the money is not going to go to fishing villages.


You seem to be confusing the issue; while no one is arguing that EK is important to Dubai, extrapolating some of the inferences are a little far fetched.

Lot of countries in the region prevented growth of aviation for political reasons. Others, such as Singapore, pioneered its development around Changhi and SQ. Singapore has already provided massive liquidity to SQ. EK has no Dubai backing (in lines of SQ), is overloaded with a wide-body fleet and is responding 1-2 months too late.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 9:13 pm

DL747400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
LightChop2Chop wrote:
Think of all these airports that spent billions to get 380 ready. What a waste


Which airports spent billions to get A380s?


He meant collectively, but of course you knew that. Airports around the world made terminal, jetway, ramp, taxiway and runway improvements in order to accommodate the A380.


And it’s been in service for 13 years and will be for longer, despite current circumstances. Their investments have not been wasted.
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PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 10:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Some fraction of the A380 fleet will have to be parked a long time.

EK subsidizes Dubai, not the other way around. Like all tourist economies, it will take some time. We'll debate Dubai a long time.


fcogafa wrote:
Heathrow had to rebuild and relocate a lot of taxiways to become A380 compliant, LAX had similar issues

LAX moved a runway because:
1. Two (probably all 4) needed to be rebuilt.
2. Moving the runways further apart allows 300 more opperations a day, up from 850.

Most of the costs were either needed or the A380 was used to expand capacity, reduce bottlenecks.


Lightsaber


The runways at LAX were too close together to allow the A380 to safely operate with other traffic, so they had to shut down taxiways and the other runway on the side when an A380 was moving around prior to moving the runways.
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun May 17, 2020 11:57 pm

Too little, too late. EK and the Emirati gambled on the big jet and after a couple of years of modest profit even when the aircraft were new and the market was near the peak, now that the market is damn near its lowest in history and the aircraft are older, the viability of Emirates is severely under threat. Heamhorraging cash left and right (let's be honest, who isn't) but they are in a very very bad situation with half their fleet made of aircraft that simply will not reach above 50% LF (If they're lucky) for years if not decades. Not to mention the oil crisis which has put the gulf nations into panic mode (particularly after the collapse of OPEC+) which is going to do more harm than good for EK considering their financial backers are almost exclusively dependent on oil which is going to 200%+ offset any gains made in fuel prices for EK and their fleet. DNATA is going to see also significant change (perhaps more so than EK) and frankly, the UAE is going to be hurting pretty bad. No Tourism, No Passengers, No Fuel, No Airport Services.
 
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flee
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 5:50 am

Jefford717 wrote:
I wouldn’t be surprised if EK retires its entire EA powered A380 and just operate the newer RR powered A380 to streamline maintenance to further reduce cost.

Unlike many here on A.net, I think the 779 has a place in EK’s future and wouldn’t be surprised of a top up order when traffic picks up around mid 2020. The difference in capacity between a380 and 779 is greater than 100 in EK’s layout and the 779 only has 2 engines.

The A380 tend to offer the best operating economics on 7-10 hour flights - I suspect that EK will not deploy them on flights over 10 hours unless they are able to fill the plane up most of the time. The B779 will at least be another 2 years from delivery and EK still has time to decide how to deploy them. Meanwhile, they will need to decide how many A380s they need in 2020 and 2021. Going with one engine type will surely make economic sense too and they will need to decide on whether EA should remain or leave the fleet as all the new deliveries will have RR.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 5:58 am

Quite logical in the current climate. The A380 is too big for the traffic. More efficient to fly smaller a/c.
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myki
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 7:54 am

Ellofiend wrote:
considering their financial backers are almost exclusively dependent on oil which is going to 200%+ offset any gains made in fuel prices for EK and their fleet

Just need to remember that the emirate of Dubai does not have oil, and has not had oil for a few years. The emirate of Abu Dhabi has the oil stocks, will be the one to run to (yet again) to beg for cash. However, yes, your overall point still stands as there are many within the energy field around the Persian Gulf. Qatar is majority gas though so oil prices have a negligible effect there.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 8:09 am

It is impossible to say what the end result will be. For the next 12 months there is no return to a normal operation likely. And the time after that depends on the virus - will there be a vaccine, will the virus mutate?
 
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flee
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 8:27 am

seahawk wrote:
It is impossible to say what the end result will be. For the next 12 months there is no return to a normal operation likely. And the time after that depends on the virus - will there be a vaccine, will the virus mutate?

That is a very good point - most decisions taken now should be short term and emergency action. Airlines should not cut too deep as to weaken its capability to come back once the industry starts to recover. Decisions made now need to be reviewed in about 5 or 6 months. Airlines are now fighting to survive - some actions will need to be extreme!
 
airhansa
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 8:36 am

I have a strong feeling that transcontinental flights will collapse for several years, making direct flights more palatable and affordable between Europe and Asia. The vast majority of people will fly within their own regions (except for Indians and Australians who live in a small area of the world).

The one question that I have about the A380 is whether it could ever be profitable at a 50% load factor with middle seats booked out. A legacy carrier could easily hike up prices to serve the cost difference.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 9:06 am

flee wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It is impossible to say what the end result will be. For the next 12 months there is no return to a normal operation likely. And the time after that depends on the virus - will there be a vaccine, will the virus mutate?

That is a very good point - most decisions taken now should be short term and emergency action. Airlines should not cut too deep as to weaken its capability to come back once the industry starts to recover. Decisions made now need to be reviewed in about 5 or 6 months. Airlines are now fighting to survive - some actions will need to be extreme!


In a drop of demand, airlines must respond quite quickly. Cash is king in a down draft, an airline must cut expenses fast to keep a cash cushion. But the cuts come in 4 durations.

a) Lightest effect / Least disruptive - reduce frequency from say 8 flights /day per aircraft to 6 flights. Works OK in the beginning of a change while the scope can be assessed..

b) Short Term - place aircraft in standby to active storage. Keep maintenance going - use each frame at least 1x week to keep maintenance current. More expensive than (a) but reduces capacity a lot. Works for 1 to 3 month durations, but more expensive.

c) Medium Term - Longer term storage but the ability to bring back relatively easy. So a 6 to 8 month solution.

d) The Desert - Long term storage where the plane may be stored for years.


So EK will soon be where 10 A380s are in (a), ready to serve destinations on a full or reduced frequency. 20 in short term, hoping they will rise to (a) within a few months., 40 going to medium term where service should resume in about 6 months and 40 being parked in the Desert because it is unknown if they will be out 2 year or too long to return. 40% going to the desert is about right.
 
brindabella
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 12:43 pm

scbriml wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Which airports spent billions to get A380s?


He meant collectively, but of course you knew that. Airports around the world made terminal, jetway, ramp, taxiway and runway improvements in order to accommodate the A380.


And it’s been in service for 13 years and will be for longer, despite current circumstances. Their investments have not been wasted.


Interesting assertions.

Care to substantiate?

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LAXintl
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 2:36 pm

Forbes article on topic:

Says retirement of 46 aircraft might seem colossal, but EK was already planning on retiring 33 frames in the next several years as leased frames hit 12-14-years of age.
COVID-19 likely just pushes this timetable up as full demand recovery might be 2023 or beyond for the carrier.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 41907079e2

Image
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 2:46 pm

Maybe EK only keeps the RollsRoyces A380 fleet?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 3:05 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Forbes article on topic:

Says retirement of 46 aircraft might seem colossal, but EK was already planning on retiring 33 frames in the next several years as leased frames hit 12-14-years of age.
COVID-19 likely just pushes this timetable up as full demand recovery might be 2023 or beyond for the carrier.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 41907079e2

Image

It makes it seem more colossal, IMO.

46 A380s whose life span will be half of what was expected when the paper was signed is colossal.

Keep in mind the original plan had EK taking frames at a higher rate than before EK canceled orders and Airbus wound down production.

And if some posts to this thread are correct, plans exist to take the A380 fleet down by 70%.
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xwb777
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 5:16 pm

Dnata confirms that it has laid off an undisclosed number of staff.

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... stood-down
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 5:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
...
And if some posts to this thread are correct, plans exist to take the A380 fleet down by 70%.


Pilots on dry fruit forum always said 40 x A380s is the maximum EK ever needed even during aviation boom, but what do they know, they just have load and trim sheet, management is the one with the big picture and vision. Wait, load and trim sheet tells the loads.
All posts are just opinions.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 6:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
Another article by Blooberg that the Emirates Group considera cutting 30,000 jobs.

https://www.google.ae/amp/s/www.bloombe ... 80s-faster

Direct link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 80s-faster

Short quote:

Emirates Group is considering plans to cut about 30,000 jobs as the operator of the world’s largest long-haul carrier seeks to reduce costs after the coronavirus pandemic grounded air travel.

The Dubai-based group could slash the number of employees by about 30% from more than 105,000 at the end of March, according to people familiar with the matter. Emirates is also considering accelerating the retirement of its fleet of Airbus SE A380s -- of which it is the biggest operator, some of the people said, declining to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public.

Not a surprise. It's always the big aging birds that go to the desert during a crisis, and they rarely come back. 9/11 largely saw the end of the 747 classics, for instance.

emiratesdriver wrote:
I reported this 3 weeks ago, but as ever I was accused of having an agenda etc. 40% btw is the low estimate, plans exists for 70%.

Very interesting. I agree that it might not be the end.

Phosphorus wrote:
If true, this is a game changer for A380 operations, spare parts supply situation, and overall type economics.
https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020 ... nd-pilots/

Key quote: "A total of 46 Airbus A380’s have now been earmarked to be permanently retired and may never fly passengers ever again." so we'd see ~115 become ~70.

A 70% cut is suggested above, and it would get the fleet to around 35 frames.

I wouldn't be surprised if the EK A380 fleet ended up being around 40 aircraft sooner than many people here think.


I wonder if Emirates would base retirement on engine type - use the opportunity to reduce to a single A380 engine type. I haven't followed closely enough the A380 engine choice drama.
 
Antarius
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 6:53 pm

scbriml wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Which airports spent billions to get A380s?


He meant collectively, but of course you knew that. Airports around the world made terminal, jetway, ramp, taxiway and runway improvements in order to accommodate the A380.


And it’s been in service for 13 years and will be for longer, despite current circumstances. Their investments have not been wasted.


For a relatively small number of aircraft. ROI is definitely not what was anticipated.

In a few years all those double deck gates will need to either be ripped out or kept functional, but never used. Not a good use of money in hindsight.
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Charlie252
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 7:01 pm

Pilots on dry fruit forum always said 40 x A380s is the maximum EK ever needed even during aviation boom, but what do they know, they just have load and trim sheet, management is the one with the big picture and vision. Wait, load and trim sheet tells the loads.[/quote]

Although in fairness they were 777 drivers and had never seen a 380 load sheet, a more realistic figure was probably in the 70's to cover the high density profitable routes.
 
Antarius
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 7:16 pm

Charlie252 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Pilots on dry fruit forum always said 40 x A380s is the maximum EK ever needed even during aviation boom, but what do they know, they just have load and trim sheet, management is the one with the big picture and vision. Wait, load and trim sheet tells the loads.

Although in fairness they were 777 drivers and had never seen a 380 load sheet, a more realistic figure was probably in the 70's to cover the high density profitable routes.


Even then, EK had a load factor last year of 79% fleetwide. One doesn't need a load sheet to extrapolate that they were grossly over capacity during a boom year of aviation.
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Charlie252
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 8:10 pm

Antarius wrote:
Charlie252 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Pilots on dry fruit forum always said 40 x A380s is the maximum EK ever needed even during aviation boom, but what do they know, they just have load and trim sheet, management is the one with the big picture and vision. Wait, load and trim sheet tells the loads.

Although in fairness they were 777 drivers and had never seen a 380 load sheet, a more realistic figure was probably in the 70's to cover the high density profitable routes.


Even then, EK had a load factor last year of 79% fleetwide. One doesn't need a load sheet to extrapolate that they were grossly over capacity during a boom year of aviation.


Agree, but were possibly making money, the route launches had dried to a trickle and they were consolidating the crazy expansion of the last five years..

Outside of Covid19 it could be argued, the airline was on the right track and the 787/350 would further fuel consolidation, profitability and maybe lead to some expansion in the middle of the decade.

Obviously a new and dramatically different plan is now needed.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 8:15 pm

Charlie252 wrote:
Agree, but were possibly making money, the route launches had dried to a trickle and they were consolidating the crazy expansion of the last five years..

Outside of Covid19 it could be argued, the airline was on the right track and the 787/350 would further fuel consolidation, profitability and maybe lead to some expansion in the middle of the decade.

Obviously a new and dramatically different plan is now needed.

Yes, on the right track after tremendously overshooting the mark and leaving themselves exposed to competitors and to industry downturns.

STC has created a lot of headaches for his successors to deal with.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 9:11 pm

Charlie252 wrote:
...
Outside of Covid19 it could be argued, the airline was on the right track and the 787/350 would further fuel consolidation, profitability and maybe lead to some expansion in the middle of the decade.....


There is no way out once you get into over capacity situation in aviation. All the talk about 787s and A350s is nice, but the question is how one could get rid of the already existing excess capacity. Bankers are not dumb to exchange A350/787 for A380s/77Ws just because airline didn't plan it well.

20% on 300 Billion ASKMs is 60 Billion ASKMs without revenue. The wasted capacity is bigger than many decent size airlines.
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emiratesdriver
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 10:57 pm

Charlie252 wrote:
Pilots on dry fruit forum always said 40 x A380s is the maximum EK ever needed even during aviation boom, but what do they know, they just have load and trim sheet, management is the one with the big picture and vision. Wait, load and trim sheet tells the loads.


Although in fairness they were 777 drivers and had never seen a 380 load sheet, a more realistic figure was probably in the 70's to cover the high density profitable routes.[/quote]

Seems sensible to me, and I’ve seen both load sheets, 40-50 was always the maximum number that were needed...the rest were merely the aviation version of the biggest and boastful.
 
Arion640
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon May 18, 2020 11:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
Charlie252 wrote:
Agree, but were possibly making money, the route launches had dried to a trickle and they were consolidating the crazy expansion of the last five years..

Outside of Covid19 it could be argued, the airline was on the right track and the 787/350 would further fuel consolidation, profitability and maybe lead to some expansion in the middle of the decade.

Obviously a new and dramatically different plan is now needed.

Yes, on the right track after tremendously overshooting the mark and leaving themselves exposed to competitors and to industry downturns.

STC has created a lot of headaches for his successors to deal with.


Would you care about creating headaches for others if you were a millionaire, retiring in your twilight years?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 12:27 am

Arion640 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Charlie252 wrote:
Agree, but were possibly making money, the route launches had dried to a trickle and they were consolidating the crazy expansion of the last five years..

Outside of Covid19 it could be argued, the airline was on the right track and the 787/350 would further fuel consolidation, profitability and maybe lead to some expansion in the middle of the decade.

Obviously a new and dramatically different plan is now needed.

Yes, on the right track after tremendously overshooting the mark and leaving themselves exposed to competitors and to industry downturns.

STC has created a lot of headaches for his successors to deal with.


Would you care about creating headaches for others if you were a millionaire, retiring in your twilight years?

People like him do care about their legacies.

I'm sure he won't be happy to be leaving with the thing he spent most of his working life on being in such a deep hole.
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Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 12:39 am

so we've now discovered that really EK doesn't need more than about 50 a380s, what about 115 77Ws and 115 777Xs that must also be somewhat excessive?
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 4:06 am

Opus99 wrote:
...what about 115 77Ws and 115 777Xs that must also be somewhat excessive?


Not necessarily, if these are 1-to-1 replacements. The capacity increase related to replacing 115 77W with 115 779 will be in the single digits.
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marcelh
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 5:39 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
...
And if some posts to this thread are correct, plans exist to take the A380 fleet down by 70%.


Pilots on dry fruit forum always said 40 x A380s is the maximum EK ever needed even during aviation boom, but what do they know, they just have load and trim sheet, management is the one with the big picture and vision. Wait, load and trim sheet tells the loads.

Flown a couple of times the A380 on different routes and they were always packed. They don’t need 100+ (maybe with an Expo 2020), but in a non-Corona world they could fill up 80 without a problem.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 5:45 am

Reading this thread and you'd come to the conclusion that international travel will cease to exist when this is pandemic is over... how interesting.

Let me preface this by saying that I am relatively impartial when it comes to the A380. I've probably enjoyed the shower more times than anyone else in this thread, but I acknowledge the economics of the aircraft are very challenging in a good economic environment, let alone how things might shape out.

However, to start condoning this rumour might be rushing to a conclusion. EK reducing their 380 fleet by 40% would require a pretty seizable shakeup of their business model. There is just not enough information to make an accurate prediction of how many 380s will be economically viable in the future. What premium demand will look like, what fuel prices will look like, if and how much lease rates can be negotiated by, and many many other factors. While I don't doubt that there's the potential to reduce the 380 fleet by 40%, I don't think any firm decision would be made just yet. It doesn't seem sensible that EK has already made such a substantial decision without knowing what market conditions will exist in 18 months +.

My personal view is that because there will be no single point in time when all borders open, but rather a gradual reopening of borders over time, we'll see quite a long period of grounding of 380s until sufficient hub and spoke traffic demand generates to warrant the use of the 380 - perhaps a few 380s will be operated to keep pilots current. But once momentum starts, I see the demand for 40 380s returning pretty quickly. In the longer-term probably a rightsizing somewhere around 80 to 90 380s.

The EK business model is resilient; I have internal sources telling me that they're operating at about 70% average revenues right now because of the huge amount of freight flying. I questioned that number, but knowing current freight prices and multiplying it across the 80 odd flights currently operating each week, the number seems plausible. Operating expenses have also been sizeably decreased too.

What is factual however, and which has been not been mentioned by others in this thread, is that 380 recurrency training for EK pilots is supposed to start on June 1st.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1028
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 5:48 am

Antarius wrote:
Even then, EK had a load factor last year of 79% fleetwide. One doesn't need a load sheet to extrapolate that they were grossly over capacity during a boom year of aviation.

A boom year? All indications were already heading to a softening of the market and especially the WB sales were slowing down. And with an Expo 2020 in their backyard, those access capacity would have been useful.
 
Antarius
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Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 6:09 am

marcelh wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Even then, EK had a load factor last year of 79% fleetwide. One doesn't need a load sheet to extrapolate that they were grossly over capacity during a boom year of aviation.

A boom year? All indications were already heading to a softening of the market and especially the WB sales were slowing down. And with an Expo 2020 in their backyard, those access capacity would have been useful.


Traffic wise. Orders were slowing due to over ordering in the past. airlines were seeing record profits and load factors.

EK's load factor was a function of itself, as it diverged from the rest of the market. And if you think flying around needlessly large planes for Expo.. well, that's the kind of whipping it out mentality that got EK into this mess.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
marcelh
Posts: 1028
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 6:44 am

Antarius wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Even then, EK had a load factor last year of 79% fleetwide. One doesn't need a load sheet to extrapolate that they were grossly over capacity during a boom year of aviation.

A boom year? All indications were already heading to a softening of the market and especially the WB sales were slowing down. And with an Expo 2020 in their backyard, those access capacity would have been useful.


Traffic wise. Orders were slowing due to over ordering in the past. airlines were seeing record profits and load factors.

EK's load factor was a function of itself, as it diverged from the rest of the market. And if you think flying around needlessly large planes for Expo.. well, that's the kind of whipping it out mentality that got EK into this mess.

What “needlessly large planes for Expo?” Pre-COViD19, they were expecting more than 10 million foreign visitors in a period of 6 months.

Your “79 percent load factor” doesn’t make clear which type contributes the most to this number.
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 7:10 am

I think this thread brings two of A-net's most hated things together in one rather unsightly edifice.

What we have seen consistently throughout the history of the A380 and indeed of EK, is people with an axe to grind stating categorically - "they don't have the load factors for that" or "the traffic isn't there" or "the yields aren't high enough to warrant this".

I find it bizarre that a bunch of interested observers on an internet fan site have the front to state they know better than paid professionals who do this stuff for real at the airlines. Its odd how whenever the A380 is involved, everyone is a masters graduate and hot shot airline planner.

Reading this thread you'd be forgiven for thinking the A380 will be dropped by EK completely as a matter of life and death, and that a load of five, three, two even one year old "whalejets" will be rotting in the desert sun, never to fly again by the end of this week. That EK has no chance of operating them post-CV19 let alone operating them profitably.

If you genuinely think air travel wont be robustly back and firming across all metrics by Spring 2021 then I'm not sure what to say to you. There are almost 8 billion people on this planet and air travel has been expanding massively year on year as more and more people fly. Do you honestly believe this will cease - forever? - because of a flu bug we'll have a vaccine for very soon?

Air travel will be back big time. We don't know when, but it will return. It has to. EK were a success story before CV19 and will be a success story after it. The unpalatable truth (for some on here) is that the A380 will be a part of that. It wont be hundreds of them at EK, but they'll certainly have use for a 40 or 50, and the A380 will continue to find useful service for BA, NH, EK, QF and LH and the ACMI specialists.
 
Airlinerdude
Posts: 182
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:07 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 7:22 am

Airlinerdude wrote:
The EK business model is resilient; I have internal sources telling me that they're operating at about 70% average revenues right now because of the huge amount of freight flying. I questioned that number, but knowing current freight prices and multiplying it across the 80 odd flights currently operating each week, the number seems plausible. Operating expenses have also been sizeably decreased too.


Correction - meant to say 80 odd flights operating per day.
 
wezgulf3
Posts: 124
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 6:52 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 7:23 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I think this thread brings two of A-net's most hated things together in one rather unsightly edifice.

What we have seen consistently throughout the history of the A380 and indeed of EK, is people with an axe to grind stating categorically - "they don't have the load factors for that" or "the traffic isn't there" or "the yields aren't high enough to warrant this".

I find it bizarre that a bunch of interested observers on an internet fan site have the front to state they know better than paid professionals who do this stuff for real at the airlines. Its odd how whenever the A380 is involved, everyone is a masters graduate and hot shot airline planner.

Reading this thread you'd be forgiven for thinking the A380 will be dropped by EK completely as a matter of life and death, and that a load of five, three, two even one year old "whalejets" will be rotting in the desert sun, never to fly again by the end of this week. That EK has no chance of operating them post-CV19 let alone operating them profitably.

If you genuinely think air travel wont be robustly back and firming across all metrics by Spring 2021 then I'm not sure what to say to you. There are almost 8 billion people on this planet and air travel has been expanding massively year on year as more and more people fly. Do you honestly believe this will cease - forever? - because of a flu bug we'll have a vaccine for very soon?

Air travel will be back big time. We don't know when, but it will return. It has to. EK were a success story before CV19 and will be a success story after it. The unpalatable truth (for some on here) is that the A380 will be a part of that. It wont be hundreds of them at EK, but they'll certainly have use for a 40 or 50, and the A380 will continue to find useful service for BA, NH, EK, QF and LH and the ACMI specialists.


Awesome post! People seem to forget that the human race of 21st century is pretty selfish and impatient, and as soon as a vaccination is found it will be “COVID who”. The media plays a big part in this hysteria for the future being similar to how it is today. But I’m certain it will bounce back pretty fast because the demand will be there.

Wes...
 
a318
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:56 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 8:43 am

Slightly off topic but EY has started firing hundreds of cabin crew. They are firing those who live outside of company housing (those crew get allowance so EY doesn’t want to pay for that anymore) and those who are from countries that have upcoming repatriation flights.
 
9Patch
Posts: 578
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 12:02 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I think this thread brings two of A-net's most hated things together in one rather unsightly edifice.

What we have seen consistently throughout the history of the A380 and indeed of EK, is people with an axe to grind stating categorically - "they don't have the load factors for that" or "the traffic isn't there" or "the yields aren't high enough to warrant this".

I find it bizarre that a bunch of interested observers on an internet fan site have the front to state they know better than paid professionals who do this stuff for real at the airlines. Its odd how whenever the A380 is involved, everyone is a masters graduate and hot shot airline planner.

Reading this thread you'd be forgiven for thinking the A380 will be dropped by EK completely as a matter of life and death, and that a load of five, three, two even one year old "whalejets" will be rotting in the desert sun, never to fly again by the end of this week. That EK has no chance of operating them post-CV19 let alone operating them profitably.

If you genuinely think air travel wont be robustly back and firming across all metrics by Spring 2021 then I'm not sure what to say to you. There are almost 8 billion people on this planet and air travel has been expanding massively year on year as more and more people fly. Do you honestly believe this will cease - forever? - because of a flu bug we'll have a vaccine for very soon?

Air travel will be back big time. We don't know when, but it will return. It has to. EK were a success story before CV19 and will be a success story after it. The unpalatable truth (for some on here) is that the A380 will be a part of that. It wont be hundreds of them at EK, but they'll certainly have use for a 40 or 50, and the A380 will continue to find useful service for BA, NH, EK, QF and LH and the ACMI specialists.


At the risk of derailing this thread, I find it bizarre that you think you know better than paid public health professionals. Covid-19 is NOT the flu. They’re caused by different types of viruses. COVID-19 appears to be more transmissible than the flu. COVID-19 is more deadly. There is no guarantee that we will have a vaccine in "very soon,' promising early results often prove fleeting. I'm not certain that air travel will be 'robustly back,' whatever that means, by Spring 2021.

No one is saying that air travel will cease forever, so please dispense with the straw man arguments.
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 12:47 pm

9Patch,

Covid-19 is a virus similar to the "flu" which we have learned to live with and will continue to do so. It is probably too widespread now to ever truly eradicate without a vaccination but certainly a vaccination will be developed and distributed before we as a species develop any kind of immunity.

Its something which, for now, we have to live with and manage as best we can. Sorry if you feel that is overly simplistic but that's my view.

To drag this back onto topic, what this means for global airline travel is that measures will be taken to ensure travel comes back before a vaccine comes out. It simply isn't realistic to expect the planet to stop moving around and travelling until CV19 is dealt with. Air travel will be back - measures will be taken. Travel restrictions will be eased in some parts and then spread out. Medical checks before boarding will become a fact of life for travelling and likely will be permanent but they are coming and coming soon. If it means having a test and showing negative before being allowed to board - for everyone - then that is what will happen. The way aircraft are cleaned and turned round between flights will be massively changed. On a macro scale, measures will be taken at Government levels to ensure resources and procedures are in place to stop this from happening again. We will have to fundamentally change the way we fly, that is clear. It will add time and expense to the process and I think most of us are far-sighted enough to agree that this is a good thing. But if you think the airlines, nothing less than the global movement of our entire species on this planet, will sit idle and stored until a vaccine sorts things out, then I feel you are wrong.

It will take a few years before air travel is back to pre-CV19 traffic levels but I feel it is clear (to me, apparently) that flights will come back soon and when they do, the rebound will be about as strong as any reasonable person would expect from a planet of almost 8 billion people on a planet covered 70% in water, about 24,000 miles around who depend on global travel as a basis human need now. Its commerce, its trading, its transportation of fresh produce, mail, people etc. We cant stop that indefinitely.

Emirates are very well positioned to take advantage of this rebound. As I say the curve will take several years to hit pre-2020 levels but it will get there. There are simply too many people on this planet for it not to. Once robust measures are agreed on and implemented (and this will happening as we speak) then consumer confidence in the industry will come back - robustly.

You probably don't agree with my assertion that it will come back robustly, say 70% of what it was, by Spring 2021 but who really knows? Where will it be come end of March 2021? 30%? 40% 60? 80? Nobody knows.

What I do know is air travel will be back operating (very differently but operating nonetheless) by then. The global economy, indeed our very way of life as a species depends on that being one of the first things to relax.

I am writing this sat in my office in Rotterdam with 20+ of my workmates sat around, all 1.5m away and all washing their hands and with a couple wearing masks. It is the first day we've been back in the office since this all happened and everyone is delighted to see everyone. The lockdown is easing across Europe and Asia and will ease in time in the US and Australasia too. Its happening. Air travel will not be far behind.

Emirates will be back too. Whether you like them or loathe them, I'd have thought the sight of their huge planes back in service flying pax around would be something to celebrate, no?

I would hope when that day comes and the EK A380s and 777s are back in great number would be a very telling milestone in humanity beating the virus and returning to normality, because of who they are and the role they play in transporting people around the world.
 
Strato2
Posts: 551
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 1:15 pm

If these numbers are in anyway correct it is a doomday scenario for the 777X. EK will not replace their A380's with brand new planes for billions of dollars if their business contracts. They will keep whatever amount of A380's and 777-300ER's they need and that's it. The only replacement will be the smaller A350's and A330's.
 
Opus99
Posts: 971
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 1:36 pm

Strato2 wrote:
If these numbers are in anyway correct it is a doomday scenario for the 777X. EK will not replace their A380's with brand new planes for billions of dollars if their business contracts. They will keep whatever amount of A380's and 777-300ER's they need and that's it. The only replacement will be the smaller A350's and A330's.

So when demand returns and the 777s are ageing and the 380 has been subsequently been reduced what will they turn to? I don’t understand why the 380s demise is positively correlated to the 777X demise? They are not the same at all. Emirates is eager to take on their 777X in my opinion, especially if it delivers on its performance. I believe the A350-1000 and the 777X have a fantastic service life ahead of them. Let us not forget oil prices will still come back up and no one wants to be on the wrong side of that. Emirates has that capacity and the 777X will be fantastic to replace BOTH the 380 and 77Ws on high capacity routes. The 789 and 350 can also replace the 77Ws on routes that don’t really need the capacity of the 77W
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 1:42 pm

Strato2 wrote:
If these numbers are in anyway correct it is a doomday scenario for the 777X. EK will not replace their A380's with brand new planes for billions of dollars if their business contracts. They will keep whatever amount of A380's and 777-300ER's they need and that's it. The only replacement will be the smaller A350's and A330's.


Ironically it may be the 77W that really comes through for them - they don't necessarily need the newer planes as their two class 77Ws are about as good as it gets efficiency wise. If there's money to be made then the 300ER is the one to make it for them. I see the A380 as something super premium to put in where multiple 77W rotations exist.

What a lot of people don't really grasp about the A380 for EK is that its appeal stems in large amount from the vastly superior C and F product it had compared to the 777 etc product until recently. The old biz on the 777 was rubbish, not a patch on the very smart product you get on the A380.

Now EK is rolling out the new C and new F on the 777s "the A380 difference" is very much diminished.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4218
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 1:42 pm

We live with influenza fairly comfortably, vaccines reduce its spread, limit or reduce its severity, high tech medical intervention can usually see a person through it, and it seldom has serious lasting side effects. Other than that CORVID-19 is like ...
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
birdbrainz
Posts: 511
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 6:57 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue May 19, 2020 2:28 pm

Is there any possibility of cutting a freight door only into the main deck of an A380 using it all for freight, and using only the A380 upper deck for passengers?

I really doubt it, as the freighter market is going to have tons of planes to choose from, but wanted to at least allow for the possibility. Also, wasn't the freighter market almost dead a year ago with a glut of over-capacity?
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