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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 7:24 pm

ADent wrote:
If they can get out of the RR contract not buying 20 engines would save a good chunk of cash.


They have yet to select engines for the 7810s
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 7:42 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
ADent wrote:
If they can get out of the RR contract not buying 20 engines would save a good chunk of cash.


They have yet to select engines for the 7810s


Slight fix.

EK has trhr 787-9 on orders. Not -10.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 8:14 pm

Jetport wrote:
Will ANA also cancel their last A380 and pay the penalty like Emirates is considering? Who could have imagined this chain of events would unfold and the last half dozen A380's possibly never even get assembled.


if you mean this one : https://www.flickr.com/photos/mathiasdu ... 676624351/ .. I guess a bit late or at least very expensive

The answer for your question you can find here : https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transp ... r-6-months
 
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ER757
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 8:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

What would Airbus do if EK is adamant about not taking the planes? Complete them to a flying state then fly them to a scrapyard? That would be very expensive. Scrap them on site? That would be pretty demoralizing, no? No good answer, sigh.

I think it would depend on the state of completion of the last five. If all they've got is the wings, then probably not build them at all. If all the major parts are already built and it's just a matter of final assembly, then they'd most likely do so.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 9:35 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Nope, just reading on phone and didnt see it was previously posted, or I wouldnt have bothered posting! :roll:

Sorry, my comments were directed at the aggregator, I didn't mean to implicate you in any way.

mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What would Airbus do if EK is adamant about not taking the planes? Complete them to a flying state then fly them to a scrapyard? That would be very expensive. Scrap them on site? That would be pretty demoralizing, no? No good answer, sigh.

With all these young aircraft hitting the market, a cargo conversion could be a realistic option. It did work for the MD-11. You could probably pick up a slightly used A380 right now for ~ $ 20 million; 5% of a new 777F or 748F. And it can easily fly TPAC nonstop.

This isn't going to help Airbus sell the resell the last five that EK is trying to avoid. The cost for creating a cargo conversion isn't going to make the frames become profitable. We've already discussed why current A380s aren't going to make great freighters and why Airbus had a custom A380F on the drawing boards.

ER757 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What would Airbus do if EK is adamant about not taking the planes? Complete them to a flying state then fly them to a scrapyard? That would be very expensive. Scrap them on site? That would be pretty demoralizing, no? No good answer, sigh.

I think it would depend on the state of completion of the last five. If all they've got is the wings, then probably not build them at all. If all the major parts are already built and it's just a matter of final assembly, then they'd most likely do so.

3 of the 5 already are in the FAL so it's pretty clear they have almost all the parts they'd need. Besides all of this stuff is very customized stuff ordered with long lead times. I think the orders have long been written so Airbus is stuck buying all the parts. I would imagine all the vendors want to get on with whatever they were going to do after A380 since having an idle factory set up to produce parts for a plane no longer being produced is probably not optimum. For instance big parts of the 747 supply chain shut down last year even though production will roll on for many months.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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DCA350
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 9:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Just as well the 380s are leased and not direct purchased.

According to post #137, that is not the case, it's around half leased and half owned.

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/emirates-seeks-to-scrap-last-5-a380-orders-in-final-blow-to-jet

Emirates looking to cancel last 5 A380s

Wow, that is surreal, even to someone who has been saying the A380's end would happen faster than expected. Yet another potential indignity for the program.

They want to take the three to be delivered by March 2021 but walk away from the five scheduled for delivery later, even if it means eating penalties of $70m a plane.

As most of us know, the last sets of wings are already built and at TLS. It would mean five aircraft whose wings are already built would not be taken up by EK, and perhaps not even finished.

Cached production list ( https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... irefox-b-1 ) agrees: there are three EK A380s already at XFW being outfitted. At TLS there are 3 in the FAL, one awaiting body join, one awaiting parts. It's these last five that are at risk.

What would Airbus do if EK is adamant about not taking the planes? Complete them to a flying state then fly them to a scrapyard? That would be very expensive. Scrap them on site? That would be pretty demoralizing, no? No good answer, sigh.

Relevant to this thread:

Emirates is already looking at accelerating the retirement of a chunk of its existing A380 fleet, Bloomberg reported Sunday. That could see it stand down as many as 65 aircraft earlier than scheduled, according to one of the people.

So the 40% cut reported earlier may end up being 57%, according to this report.

par13del wrote:
So cheaper to take delivery and just fly the plane to a boneyard for long term storage versus the additional expense of adding the a/c to inventory with all the associated paperwork tracking required.

I think you save even more money by not making them flyable. There's a lot of man hours in FAL and testing that you avoid, and even more paperwork that you avoid if it never becomes flyable. Salvage the high value parts, scrap the rest.


At $70mil a plane penalty AB could market them dirt cheap. Could BA take a flyer? supposedly they were interested in the past but the price was too high
 
Bricktop
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 10:48 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Just as well the 380s are leased and not direct purchased.

According to post #137, that is not the case, it's around half leased and half owned.

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/emirates-seeks-to-scrap-last-5-a380-orders-in-final-blow-to-jet

Emirates looking to cancel last 5 A380s

Wow, that is surreal, even to someone who has been saying the A380's end would happen faster than expected. Yet another potential indignity for the program.

They want to take the three to be delivered by March 2021 but walk away from the five scheduled for delivery later, even if it means eating penalties of $70m a plane.

As most of us know, the last sets of wings are already built and at TLS. It would mean five aircraft whose wings are already built would not be taken up by EK, and perhaps not even finished.

Cached production list ( https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... irefox-b-1 ) agrees: there are three EK A380s already at XFW being outfitted. At TLS there are 3 in the FAL, one awaiting body join, one awaiting parts. It's these last five that are at risk.

What would Airbus do if EK is adamant about not taking the planes? Complete them to a flying state then fly them to a scrapyard? That would be very expensive. Scrap them on site? That would be pretty demoralizing, no? No good answer, sigh.

Relevant to this thread:

Emirates is already looking at accelerating the retirement of a chunk of its existing A380 fleet, Bloomberg reported Sunday. That could see it stand down as many as 65 aircraft earlier than scheduled, according to one of the people.

So the 40% cut reported earlier may end up being 57%, according to this report.

par13del wrote:
So cheaper to take delivery and just fly the plane to a boneyard for long term storage versus the additional expense of adding the a/c to inventory with all the associated paperwork tracking required.

I think you save even more money by not making them flyable. There's a lot of man hours in FAL and testing that you avoid, and even more paperwork that you avoid if it never becomes flyable. Salvage the high value parts, scrap the rest.


At $70mil a plane penalty AB could market them dirt cheap. Could BA take a flyer? supposedly they were interested in the past but the price was too high

I have bought stuff on sale that I never ended up using just because it was on sale. When I say "I" I mean my wife, and by "stuff" I mean clothes. ;)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 11:24 pm

DCA350 wrote:
At $70mil a plane penalty AB could market them dirt cheap. Could BA take a flyer? supposedly they were interested in the past but the price was too high

BA won't be committing to be buying new A380s for at least 2-3, years and by then they'll be even more obsolete relative to other aircraft. They already have commitments to 779 which would be a much better platform for what they want to do, IMO.

Bricktop wrote:
I have bought stuff on sale that I never ended up using just because it was on sale. When I say "I" I mean my wife, and by "stuff" I mean clothes. ;)

I have this unfortunate habit of buying shoes on the small side, then regretting buying them, then keep wearing the older ones and giving the new ones to my younger brother who has smaller feet than I do. He's pretty happy with the arrangement.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 11:25 pm

I may be totally misremembering but didn’t Airbus build the wings for the first never finished A380F designed to support that variant‘s higher MTOW (~590t iirc)? If so whatever happened to them?
 
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ER757
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 11:33 pm

If EK declines the last five maybe Airbus could hope to sell them as head of state aircraft to some countries. That might be the only possible way to sell them. No airlines seems to have a desire for the Big Bus
 
moa999
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 11:40 pm

DCA350 wrote:
At $70mil a plane penalty AB could market them dirt cheap. Could BA take a flyer? supposedly they were interested in the past but the price was too high


Doubt any airline is interested in new planes right now.. they are all trying to work out how to shrink their fleet, and certainly not ones as big as the A380
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed May 20, 2020 11:48 pm

moa999 wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
At $70mil a plane penalty AB could market them dirt cheap. Could BA take a flyer? supposedly they were interested in the past but the price was too high


Doubt any airline is interested in new planes right now.. they are all trying to work out how to shrink their fleet, and certainly not ones as big as the A380

All the A380s airlines are dumping are going to add pricing pressure too.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 12:43 am

Polot wrote:
All the A380s airlines are dumping are going to add pricing pressure too.


Like AF.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-air-france-klm-airbus-nl-a380/air-france-retires-airbus-a380-in-coronavirus-response-idUKKBN22W2E4

Reuters, not from some random blogger.

Very sad. I remember when I saw my very first A380, F-HPJA as AF6 on August 23, 2010, and how thrilling it was. That was not even 10 years ago. :(
 
xwb777
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 1:44 am

Here is a scenario: Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum is the Chairman of both Emirates and Flydubai. If he suddenly wants to merge EK and FZ, what are the associated extra costs (if any) of such action?

Emirates has 115 B77X, 50 A359, 30 B789 and 8 A380s on order.
Flydubai has 225 B737 MAX8/9/10 on order.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 5:53 am

I feel sorry for the investors behind the leases. Who would have guessed that a dozen years ago that the life of an A380 barely makes it to the lease term, almost not hope of a 2nd lease. These recent events also really hurt engine values and the value of the landing gear, etc as parts. There may even be low demand for parts except at EK, they will have enough from their own frames.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 8:20 am

To bad the A380's life ends this way, one of the most comfortable planes I've ever flown on.

OT:
The penalty of €70.000.000 per plane seems like a lot, but is it?
Airbus already built the parts and they're in Toulouse, seems like most of the costs of producing an A380 have been made.
They won't be able to sell it to another airline because A380's go for next to nothing on the secondhand market. So the investment is probably gone.
 
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flee
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 9:37 am

IWMBH wrote:
To bad the A380's life ends this way, one of the most comfortable planes I've ever flown on.

OT:
The penalty of €70.000.000 per plane seems like a lot, but is it?
Airbus already built the parts and they're in Toulouse, seems like most of the costs of producing an A380 have been made.
They won't be able to sell it to another airline because A380's go for next to nothing on the secondhand market. So the investment is probably gone.

The airframe is assembled at TLS - painting and cabin fitment is carried out at XFW. So if the plane never leaves TLS, it is just a hull with nothing inside.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 9:55 am

flee wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
To bad the A380's life ends this way, one of the most comfortable planes I've ever flown on.

OT:
The penalty of €70.000.000 per plane seems like a lot, but is it?
Airbus already built the parts and they're in Toulouse, seems like most of the costs of producing an A380 have been made.
They won't be able to sell it to another airline because A380's go for next to nothing on the secondhand market. So the investment is probably gone.

The airframe is assembled at TLS - painting and cabin fitment is carried out at XFW. So if the plane never leaves TLS, it is just a hull with nothing inside.


I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.
 
Sokes
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 10:47 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, the idea was to push out any competition by flooding the market with cheap capacity. The problem is that people still pay more for a direct connection and the smaller twins are competitive in the market and most importantly, the ME3 fought with each other and they fought for the same customers. EK alone could have made the A380 work, but with the competition from EY and QR, it did not work.

That would work only if EK has capacity/cost control and other countries keep extending bi-laterals. Both were not happening. EK kept taking deliveries and countries slowly tightened access.

Good points. But would Emirates have flown A380s to Europe with more generous bilaterals?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 10:49 am

IWMBH wrote:
flee wrote:
The airframe is assembled at TLS - painting and cabin fitment is carried out at XFW. So if the plane never leaves TLS, it is just a hull with nothing inside.


I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.

Are the engines inside?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 11:13 am

Sokes wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, the idea was to push out any competition by flooding the market with cheap capacity. The problem is that people still pay more for a direct connection and the smaller twins are competitive in the market and most importantly, the ME3 fought with each other and they fought for the same customers. EK alone could have made the A380 work, but with the competition from EY and QR, it did not work.

That would work only if EK has capacity/cost control and other countries keep extending bi-laterals. Both were not happening. EK kept taking deliveries and countries slowly tightened access.

Good points. But would Emirates have flown A380s to Europe with more generous bilaterals?

With more traffic rights, they would just have grown even faster.
I think yes, they would. But more traffic rights would probably also have been available to QR and EY, so the basic problem would remain unchanged. With more traffic rights all 3 would just have grown even faster, but there are very few airports left that were not served by at least one of the ME3.
 
Dirigible
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 11:49 am

Sokes wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
flee wrote:
The airframe is assembled at TLS - painting and cabin fitment is carried out at XFW. So if the plane never leaves TLS, it is just a hull with nothing inside.


I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.

Are the engines inside?

Yes, they are.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 12:15 pm

Dirigible wrote:
Sokes wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.

Are the engines inside?

Yes, they are.

Glad that's sorted!
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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MIflyer12
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 12:50 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
I feel sorry for the investors behind the leases.


Oh, they're big boys. (Multi $ Billion investor portfolios, probably.)

Familiar with the British expression 'Safe as houses'? In some U.S. markets in the 2007-09 recession single-family home prices fell more than 50% from their 2006 peaks. Investment - in contrast to saving - involves risk. Long-life assets, oil price unpredictability, long-duration leases, few operators... A380 leasing was never for the risk-averse. The market didn't have anything like the breadth and depth of 737 or A32X leasing.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 12:56 pm

Dirigible wrote:
Sokes wrote:
IWMBH wrote:

I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.

Are the engines inside?

Yes, they are.


Any two available engines would do to ferry the plane and ship engines back. I am guessing it is a cheaper option than hanging new engines to all five frames.


seahawk wrote:
Sokes wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
That would work only if EK has capacity/cost control and other countries keep extending bi-laterals. Both were not happening. EK kept taking deliveries and countries slowly tightened access.

Good points. But would Emirates have flown A380s to Europe with more generous bilaterals?

With more traffic rights, they would just have grown even faster.
I think yes, they would. But more traffic rights would probably also have been available to QR and EY, so the basic problem would remain unchanged. With more traffic rights all 3 would just have grown even faster, but there are very few airports left that were not served by at least one of the ME3.


With 77L being the smallest, EK cannot expand network profitably. Sure you can take a bigger plane and discount fares heavily, any competitor with smaller and efficient frame would be incurring smaller losses offering same prices. QR has larger network than EK.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 1:46 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Dirigible wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Are the engines inside?

Yes, they are.

Any two available engines would do to ferry the plane and ship engines back. I am guessing it is a cheaper option than hanging new engines to all five frames.

I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense.

It doesn't seem to make sense to complete airframes that there is next to no likelihood of ever selling. You are going to be paying a lot of money to get them flyable to move them from one scrap site to another with some undetermined amount of storage fees in between.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 1:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Dirigible wrote:
Yes, they are.

Any two available engines would do to ferry the plane and ship engines back. I am guessing it is a cheaper option than hanging new engines to all five frames.

I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense.

It doesn't seem to make sense to complete airframes that there is next to no likelihood of ever selling. You are going to be paying a lot of money to get them flyable to move them from one scrap site to another with some undetermined amount of storage fees in between.


Thanks for the correction, forgot it is a 4-holer.
All posts are just opinions.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense.

It doesn't seem to make sense to complete airframes that there is next to no likelihood of ever selling. You are going to be paying a lot of money to get them flyable to move them from one scrap site to another with some undetermined amount of storage fees in between.

On the other hand, the scrap value as of right now is probably miniscule. You might as well complete the assembly at TLS - without engines - and store them. If somebody does come along to buy them in a few years, it should be cheaper to outfit these bare frames than to refit some highly customized used aircraft.

Also, where would you scrap them in TLS? In the FAL building? I think Airbus has better uses for that real estate. And if these 5 aircraft are stored as parts, they would also need to store the assembly equipment if they want to keep the option to assemble them at a later date. Better to run them through the FAL now, push them out the door to make room, and explore future options when the time comes.
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:22 pm

mxaxai wrote:

Also, where would you scrap them in TLS? In the FAL building? I think Airbus has better uses for that real estate. And if these 5 aircraft are stored as parts, they would also need to store the assembly equipment if they want to keep the option to assemble them at a later date. Better to run them through the FAL now, push them out the door to make room, and explore future options when the time comes.

If they are stored as parts they would never be assembled. Airbus is not going to keep assembly equipment and FAL space open in the off chance they can finish them some day. Scrapping doesn’t have to occur in a FAL, it can occur elsewhere at TLS or off site depending on the size of the piece.

I suspect Airbus will finish them though, fly them off site for storage, and press EK to take them eventually.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:25 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
With 77L being the smallest, EK cannot expand network profitably. Sure you can take a bigger plane and discount fares heavily, any competitor with smaller and efficient frame would be incurring smaller losses offering same prices. QR has larger network than EK.


Fully agree with you, more traffic rights would not have changed the situation, except that the fleet might have gown even faster.
 
brindabella
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:26 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Any two available engines would do to ferry the plane and ship engines back. I am guessing it is a cheaper option than hanging new engines to all five frames.

I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense.

It doesn't seem to make sense to complete airframes that there is next to no likelihood of ever selling. You are going to be paying a lot of money to get them flyable to move them from one scrap site to another with some undetermined amount of storage fees in between.


Thanks for the correction, forgot it is a 4-holer.


Thanks for the thanks for the correction!

I always enjoy your posts, but was blind-sided by the concept of flying the 4-engined WhaleJet with just 2 engines ... :eyepopping:

:boggled: :bigthumbsup:

cheers
Billy
 
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flee
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:29 pm

IWMBH wrote:
flee wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
To bad the A380's life ends this way, one of the most comfortable planes I've ever flown on.

OT:
The penalty of €70.000.000 per plane seems like a lot, but is it?
Airbus already built the parts and they're in Toulouse, seems like most of the costs of producing an A380 have been made.
They won't be able to sell it to another airline because A380's go for next to nothing on the secondhand market. So the investment is probably gone.

The airframe is assembled at TLS - painting and cabin fitment is carried out at XFW. So if the plane never leaves TLS, it is just a hull with nothing inside.

I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.

My point is that if the A380 does not have a cabin, it may be easier to re-market the aircraft (although chances of that is slim to none). Who knows, BA may need them 5 years from now. Who knows, Airbus may try to fit the Ultrafan engines to it. As we have seen this year, a lot of unforeseen events can take place. None of us knows what will happen in the coming months or years....
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:31 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense.

It doesn't seem to make sense to complete airframes that there is next to no likelihood of ever selling. You are going to be paying a lot of money to get them flyable to move them from one scrap site to another with some undetermined amount of storage fees in between.

On the other hand, the scrap value as of right now is probably miniscule. You might as well complete the assembly at TLS - without engines - and store them. If somebody does come along to buy them in a few years, it should be cheaper to outfit these bare frames than to refit some highly customized used aircraft.

Also, where would you scrap them in TLS? In the FAL building? I think Airbus has better uses for that real estate. And if these 5 aircraft are stored as parts, they would also need to store the assembly equipment if they want to keep the option to assemble them at a later date. Better to run them through the FAL now, push them out the door to make room, and explore future options when the time comes.


Sorry, but I am far less optimistic.

The future for these frames is zero.

AB pockets the 70Mill.

That is it. :sorry:

Such a shame.

cheers
Billy
 
Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 2:39 pm

flee wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
flee wrote:
The airframe is assembled at TLS - painting and cabin fitment is carried out at XFW. So if the plane never leaves TLS, it is just a hull with nothing inside.

I don't get your point really. The plane is flyable when it leaves Toulouse so all the electronic, engines etc. have been fitted.
The plane isn't just ''a hull with nothing inside''because there aren't any seats in it.

My point is that if the A380 does not have a cabin, it may be easier to re-market the aircraft (although chances of that is slim to none). Who knows, BA may need them 5 years from now. Who knows, Airbus may try to fit the Ultrafan engines to it. As we have seen this year, a lot of unforeseen events can take place. None of us knows what will happen in the coming months or years....

You’re right no one knows all we can do is predict. With the 779 being about 2 years into the BA fleet by then, I’m not sure they will move to the 380, especially seeing as production of the aircraft will be discontinued so less available support from the manufacturer
 
Prost
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 3:32 pm

IWMBH wrote:
To bad the A380's life ends this way, one of the most comfortable planes I've ever flown on.

OT:
The penalty of €70.000.000 per plane seems like a lot, but is it?
Airbus already built the parts and they're in Toulouse, seems like most of the costs of producing an A380 have been made.
They won't be able to sell it to another airline because A380's go for next to nothing on the secondhand market. So the investment is probably gone.


I imagine the people who are investing in aircraft leases are probably doing okay compared to the normal joe who has lost most of their retirement this year. But if it’s necessary, I’ll make some cookies for a bake sale to help them out.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 4:43 pm

brindabella wrote:
AB pockets the 70Mill.


Airbus already paid or have to pay its suppliers who invested money. Everyone gets a haircut, Airbus actually has to take a deeper cut because forcing deeper cuts on suppliers may push them out of business.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ScottB
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu May 21, 2020 10:50 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I find it bizarre that a bunch of interested observers on an internet fan site have the front to state they know better than paid professionals who do this stuff for real at the airlines. Its odd how whenever the A380 is involved, everyone is a masters graduate and hot shot airline planner.


I find it tedious to see this tired old argument dredged up any time someone questions bad decisions made at an airline or any other enterprise. US Airways was run by "paid professionals who do this stuff for real" and yet declared bankruptcy twice. Pan Am and TWA were run by "paid professionals who do this stuff for real" and where are they? Swissair and Sabena had "paid professionals who do this stuff for real" and both collapsed. Alitalia, Kingfisher, SAA, Thomas Cook, flyBE, Aloha, Braniff, VARIG, Mexicana, Avianca, etc. Really. Need I continue?

Prost wrote:
I imagine the people who are investing in aircraft leases are probably doing okay compared to the normal joe who has lost most of their retirement this year.


Well, the relatively sophisticated investors in aircraft leases probably do include some retirement funds -- sort of like how the CDO collapse during the GFC devastated some pension funds.

CHRISBA35X wrote:
If you genuinely think air travel wont be robustly back and firming across all metrics by Spring 2021 then I'm not sure what to say to you. There are almost 8 billion people on this planet and air travel has been expanding massively year on year as more and more people fly. Do you honestly believe this will cease - forever? - because of a flu bug we'll have a vaccine for very soon?

Air travel will be back big time. We don't know when, but it will return. It has to. EK were a success story before CV19 and will be a success story after it. The unpalatable truth (for some on here) is that the A380 will be a part of that. It wont be hundreds of them at EK, but they'll certainly have use for a 40 or 50, and the A380 will continue to find useful service for BA, NH, EK, QF and LH and the ACMI specialists.


Air travel will return, but long-haul/intercontinental travel, which is key to the EK model, will take longer than domestic/regional travel to recover. It is extremely likely that many borders will remain shut for an extended period as coronavirus seems poised to affect developing nations severely. The borders of India and Pakistan remain completely closed. A vaccine will, of course, help alleviate most of these issues but it will take months after initial availability for vaccination to become available worldwide and there will likely be costly documentation & testing requirements to enter many countries. This will continue to discourage international travel.
 
9Patch
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 1:56 am

Prost wrote:
I imagine the people who are investing in aircraft leases are probably doing okay...


As long as they we're well diversified among many investment classes.
Anyone who bet it all on the A380 is getting killed, unless they found a way to short sell it.
 
xwb777
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 3:54 am

Does anybody know or remember why did Emirates ground its entire fleet in 1999?
 
Antarius
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 4:28 am

ScottB wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
I find it bizarre that a bunch of interested observers on an internet fan site have the front to state they know better than paid professionals who do this stuff for real at the airlines. Its odd how whenever the A380 is involved, everyone is a masters graduate and hot shot airline planner.


I find it tedious to see this tired old argument dredged up any time someone questions bad decisions made at an airline or any other enterprise. US Airways was run by "paid professionals who do this stuff for real" and yet declared bankruptcy twice. Pan Am and TWA were run by "paid professionals who do this stuff for real" and where are they? Swissair and Sabena had "paid professionals who do this stuff for real" and both collapsed. Alitalia, Kingfisher, SAA, Thomas Cook, flyBE, Aloha, Braniff, VARIG, Mexicana, Avianca, etc. Really. Need I continue?


Yes, but when everyone is dumping them and the manufacturer has conceded defeat and killed the program, maybe it is time to look and listen to the market. No matter how much disdain you have for them.

Somehow the a380 turns people into some real creative genii. Youd think if it was profitable to use the frame someone would be doing it. I guess, in agreement with CHRISBA35X, I'd love to see the a380 fanboys put their money where their mouths are - buy the AF a380s and show everyone how foolish they are.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 2:15 pm

Well...

STC says the 380 is staying in and has a place in Emirates. He expects to be flying his full fleet in 2022. He says only retirements happening are the 3 380s going out and the 9 777s also going out this year. He says this hub model has worked for 35 years and they wish to continue it.

https://www.ft.com/content/3f13edfe-e7a ... f2eb0a36f4
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 3:32 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Well...

STC says the 380 is staying in and has a place in Emirates. He expects to be flying his full fleet in 2022. He says only retirements happening are the 3 380s going out and the 9 777s also going out this year. He says this hub model has worked for 35 years and they wish to continue it.

https://www.ft.com/content/3f13edfe-e7a ... f2eb0a36f4

Yet just two weeks ago STC said:

“We have just got to accept that in the next year or two, perhaps a bit longer, demand for air travel is going to be tempered in many respects,” he said. “What emerges from this will be in my view almost perhaps 20 or 30 per cent less than what we were experiencing prior to the coronavirus kicking in.”

And:

“We know the A380 is over, the 747 is over but the A350 and the 787 will always have a place. They may not be ordered soon, they may have orders deferred and pushed back, but eventually they will come back, and they will be a better fit probably for global demand in the years post the pandemic,” he said.

Ref: https://www.thenational.ae/business/avi ... -1.1015208

So by his own words, he's saying he's keeping all the A380s and thus will have 20%-30% more capacity than he can use, of a type whose time is over.

Events are beyond his control anyway. People aren't going to be willing to get on to airplanes in the numbers they did pre-covid for a long time, and EK was already trending the wrong way pre-covid.

He himself will be retired before too long, never mind EK's A380s. He seems to be having problems leaving the stage ( ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... -covid-19/ ).
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 3:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Well...

STC says the 380 is staying in and has a place in Emirates. He expects to be flying his full fleet in 2022. He says only retirements happening are the 3 380s going out and the 9 777s also going out this year. He says this hub model has worked for 35 years and they wish to continue it.

https://www.ft.com/content/3f13edfe-e7a ... f2eb0a36f4

Yet just two weeks ago STC said:

“We have just got to accept that in the next year or two, perhaps a bit longer, demand for air travel is going to be tempered in many respects,” he said. “What emerges from this will be in my view almost perhaps 20 or 30 per cent less than what we were experiencing prior to the coronavirus kicking in.”

And:

“We know the A380 is over, the 747 is over but the A350 and the 787 will always have a place. They may not be ordered soon, they may have orders deferred and pushed back, but eventually they will come back, and they will be a better fit probably for global demand in the years post the pandemic,” he said.

Ref: https://www.thenational.ae/business/avi ... -1.1015208

So by his own words, he's saying he's keeping all the A380s and thus will have 20%-30% more capacity than he can use, of a type whose time is over.

Events are beyond his control anyway. People aren't going to be willing to get on to airplanes in the numbers they did pre-covid for a long time, and EK was already trending the wrong way pre-covid.

He himself will be retired before too long, never mind EK's A380s. He seems to be having problems leaving the stage ( ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... -covid-19/ ).

I honestly think it’s some kind of soften the blow tactic. He says they will be in long term storage but they won’t be retired. Honestly, he does lot of back and forth with fleet strategy
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 3:44 pm

How many stored frames in the past have sit for more than a year (and maybe 18 months), and then returned to service. My suspicion is not that many. Then if we look at why they returned to service will any of it apply to 380s? (or 748s, 777s for that matter)
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Airlinerdude
Posts: 182
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 3:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yet just two weeks ago STC said:

“We have just got to accept that in the next year or two, perhaps a bit longer, demand for air travel is going to be tempered in many respects,” he said. “What emerges from this will be in my view almost perhaps 20 or 30 per cent less than what we were experiencing prior to the coronavirus kicking in.”

So by his own words, he's saying he's keeping all the A380s and thus will have 20%-30% more capacity than he can use, of a type whose time is over.


Did you even read the article?

The direct quote was:

He added that the A380 had a "place in the Emirates international network on the scale it has before. Albeit not today or fully next year, but the year after I think there will be a place for it"


You're arguing semantics if you think that these two quotes don't share the same sentiment. He didn't say that capacity won't be rationalized in line with recovery. Sure the A380 will have a place, but in two or three years time there will be A380 retirements as part of their existing fleet plan.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 4:15 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
Did you even read the article?

The direct quote was:

He added that the A380 had a "place in the Emirates international network on the scale it has before. Albeit not today or fully next year, but the year after I think there will be a place for it"


You're arguing semantics if you think that these two quotes don't share the same sentiment. He didn't say that capacity won't be rationalized in line with recovery. Sure the A380 will have a place, but in two or three years time there will be A380 retirements as part of their existing fleet plan.

I did not read the FT article, it's behind a paywall. It would be nice if posters avoided such sites, or provided a bit more context such as you have done.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 4:30 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Well...

STC says the 380 is staying in and has a place in Emirates. He expects to be flying his full fleet in 2022. He says only retirements happening are the 3 380s going out and the 9 777s also going out this year. He says this hub model has worked for 35 years and they wish to continue it.

https://www.ft.com/content/3f13edfe-e7a ... f2eb0a36f4


When is he retiring, if not EK is doomed. At some point this company needs a direction change.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24409
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 4:35 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Well...

STC says the 380 is staying in and has a place in Emirates. He expects to be flying his full fleet in 2022. He says only retirements happening are the 3 380s going out and the 9 777s also going out this year. He says this hub model has worked for 35 years and they wish to continue it.

https://www.ft.com/content/3f13edfe-e7a ... f2eb0a36f4


When is he retiring, if not EK is doomed. At some point this company needs a direction change.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... -covid-19/ says he was to go in June but has "offered" to stay longer.
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Airlinerdude
Posts: 182
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 6:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
I did not read the FT article, it's behind a paywall. It would be nice if posters avoided such sites, or provided a bit more context such as you have done.


Fair enough.

In all truthfulness, there wasn't much new in the article that we didn't already know. I think the main emphasis of the article was to quash the Bloomberg article about EK downsizing their 380 fleet by 40%. A lot of STC's comments echoed what I had written in post 95, supporting the resilience in the EK business model. I personally didn't see any contradiction with his earlier comments which you had quoted.

Expanding on my earlier post, I think there is a lot of accuracy in speculating that EK's business model is resilient, when international air travel begins to rebound.

We're going to progressively see borders opening up to allow commerce and some limited form of tourism to return. I think EK, and other airlines with a geographically favoured international hub and spoke operation like TK, will be the ones to benefit the most initially. When countries begin to open, they will all likely be geographically disbursed. For example, you may see China, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Germany, and Canada opening before others. Some degree of passenger demand will return between these countries and passenger demand 'corridors' will arise. EK's/other's connecting strategy may provide an economical way to reintroduce capacity to these geographically disbursed markets.

To some degree, we're already seeing this with EK allowing connections through DXB between Australia and the UK.

I don't think this necessarily supports the justification of A380s being quick to return, but rather that if there's a business model which might be favourable to have a quick rebound when international air travel returns, it could be the one EK has adopted.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri May 22, 2020 6:28 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
I don't think this necessarily supports the justification of A380s being quick to return, but rather that if there's a business model which might be favourable to have a quick rebound when international air travel returns, it could be the one EK has adopted.

Thanks for your well thought out reply.

There is so much unknown.

I think the one thing people say consistently is A380 needs to be close to full to make money. I also think 77W is of the same generation of development more or less as A380 and have read reports from leeham and others saying its per seat advantage over A380 is slim to none.

So EK will have some real issues navigating the near to mid term future. They've been taking new 77Ws up till a few months ago and are still taking new A380s so are still paying a lot and neither deliver state of the art performance and both need solid load factors to make money. 77W is somewhat advantaged in it has lower trip costs and one of the articles in this thread says EK will use it the most during the recovery. Yet it will be facing competitors who fly 787 and A350, and customers who will want to avoid transferring at a hub because that involves a lot more risk of exposure to COVID-19.

No one knows what will be next. Maybe we'll have a workable vaccine soon and a nice linear or super-linear return to high levels of air travel, or maybe we will have a 2nd wave or 3rd wave of COVID-19, or maybe it will mutate or something else will emerge from the now open wet markets and we'll be dealing with COVID-20 or COVID-21.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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