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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:54 pm

I think after this pandemic is over, we might see Emirates moving away from widebody only model. The will learn so many lessons from this recessions. Tim Clark said that this is the worst recession Emirates is facing in its entire history.

Emirates capacity problems started when they have phased out the A330-200.

COVID-19 is hitting right after EK admitted the A380 had no future and canceled 39 orders and went in the direction of A350 and 787. The timing could not be worse. Now they are stuck with no funds to do the fleet makeover and must stick with a fleet of too-big aircraft with previous generation engines while passengers are very leery of getting on any airplane and ending up being quarantined in a distant land or upon returning to home.

EK did have the chance to decide what direction they wanted to take when they were phasing out A330-200, and it seems they made the wrong choice by not getting an updated substitute. COVID-19 was not predictable but the aviation industry is always vulnerable to occasional upsets such as 9/11, GFC, SARS, etc and things like strong competition and hub bypass have been hurting the bottom line and now EK's being caught out now big time.

Apparently this month is when STC's role changes from President to adviser. It'll be interesting if he continues to dominate the press like he seems to be doing now, or if this is one last hurrah.
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brilondon
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:54 pm

DrPaul wrote:
birdbrainz wrote:
Is there any possibility of cutting a freight door only into the main deck of an A380 using it all for freight, and using only the A380 upper deck for passengers? I really doubt it, as the freighter market is going to have tons of planes to choose from, but wanted to at least allow for the possibility. Also, wasn't the freighter market almost dead a year ago with a glut of over-capacity?


Also would not the lower passenger deck need reinforcing before it could be used for freight? And would existing airport equipment allow for freight to be unloaded at the same time as the passengers in the top deck? Otherwise, turnaround times would be rather longer.

I imagine that with the revival of passenger travel likely to be fairly slow, there will be plenty of redundant 747s and 777s that would be much easier to convert should the demand for air-freight increase.

I'm afraid that the Whale is going to be another victim of the current virus.


I believe that is the reason that the A380 is useless as a freighter only aircraft. The floors need to be strengthened.
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xwb777
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:13 pm

A final decision regarding the fleet and upcoming orders will be announced in few months

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 3923Z?il=0
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:29 pm

brilondon wrote:
I believe that is the reason that the A380 is useless as a freighter only aircraft. The floors need to be strengthened.

Leeham/Hamilton tries to make the counter point ( https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/03/there ... more-33578 ) suggesting A380s can be used to carry e-commerce using floors as-is with either pallets or rollers on the seat rails, but IMO is not convincing.

The only thing A380 brings to the table presumably is dirt cheap acquisition cost. All the other negatives ( high trip cost, poor efficiency, four engines with aging engine tech, over built for future stretch ) remain. It's also going out of production soon. It is noted infrastructure will be needed to access the 2nd deck and that landing gear size makes the lower hold less spacious. I'm not sure why an airline would go with such an inefficient, dead end vehicle.

Meanwhile, QR says their A380s will not fly for another year or more ( ref: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN2391FA ).
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9Patch
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:53 pm

brilondon wrote:
I believe that is the reason that the A380 is useless as a freighter only aircraft. The floors need to be strengthened.

Airbus said a Passenger-to-Freighter conversion of the A380 would be technically feasible.
https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/03/there ... you-think/
Last edited by 9Patch on Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Strato2
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:06 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -orderbook

Unfortunately for some the Superjumbo is here to stay:

The executive said the model still has a future with the carrier and will come into its own again in a few years.


The same might not be said of some critical orders for other models:

“All bets are off,” Tim Clark, the Dubai-based carrier’s president, said in a online forum Monday. “We are nowhere near confident enough that the economics, the cash flows, the bottom line will put us in a good position to be able to guess if we’ll buy a hundred of this or a hundred of that.”
 
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par13del
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:16 pm

Well if social distancing is required on a/c for long haul travel, which a/c has the most space?
I am not saying this is ideal, the economics may be even worse, but if your competitors are struggling to get 150 pax in an a/c due to leaving seats empty, one can get much more than that in an A380. It will still be a loss leader but in times of a pandemic and persons still in fear, some pax may be comforted by an airline giving them loads of space to make them comfortable. The marketing question is whether such considerations will make them repeat customers when things get better.

Just a thought for the A380 lovers looking for a reason for the a/c to maintain its place in the sky.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:27 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Unfortunately for some the Superjumbo is here to stay:

Yes, and most of the misfortune falls on EK itself since COVID-19 has struck down their plans to acquire newer, more efficient planes which leaves them stuck trying to make the best of a bad situation. Now they are stuck with 115+ A380s that are ill suited for the post-covid world and are stuck with the thankless mission of trying to convince Airbus to not make them take delivery of more A380s that are already in the process of being built.
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9Patch
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:34 pm

Strato2 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-01/emirates-says-crisis-has-cast-doubt-over-entire-jet-orderbook

Unfortunately for some the Superjumbo is here to stay:

The executive said the model still has a future with the carrier and will come into its own again in a few years.

Talk about cherry picking your quotes.
You left out the preceding sentence that says:

Emirates is seeking to cancel its last A380 orders and is considering accelerating the retirement of its older superjumbos, Bloomberg reported previously.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Unfortunately for some the Superjumbo is here to stay:

Yes, and most of the misfortune falls on EK itself since COVID-19 has struck down their plans to acquire newer, more efficient planes which leaves them stuck trying to make the best of a bad situation. Now they are stuck with 115+ A380s that are ill suited for the post-covid world and are stuck with the thankless mission of trying to convince Airbus to not make them take delivery of more A380s that are already in the process of being built.


We must include the 77W's in this. EK's prior decisions as mangled by COVID will have their fleet basically A380's and 77W's. The 77W's are cost competitive today with fuel prices low, but if their current 787 and 350 orders are deferred by say 5 years on average, EK will be competing against others that retired their worst planes and are now flying 787's and A350's and providing direct flights too. So it will be tough to get customers for convenience or cost, not a winning hand.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:39 pm

xwb777 wrote:
A final decision regarding the fleet and upcoming orders will be announced in few months

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 3923Z?il=0


I feel the B787 and A350 orders are safer than the B779s, only coz the B787 and A350s are not due until 2023/2024. The B779s on order will...or have be reduced. There is no passenger demand for it.
 
Sokes
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:39 pm

smartplane wrote:
The A loan is repaid from monthly lease payments, and funded largely, but not exclusively, by the funding participants.
...
The combined value of A & B loans are largely irrelevant. In the 21st century, they are not an indication of the price paid for an aircraft, or even the residual value, because adjustments can and are made for risk, value and application of OEM retrospective credits, front end contributions, calculation of end of lease balloon payments, cash in or out upfront, value and timing of OEM 'last resort' buybacks.............
...

I don't understand what you mean.
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emiratesdriver
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:40 pm

The axe continues to fall in DXB as more flight crew are being made redundant, a quick email followed by a letter. Essentially all the trouble makers on the A380 and 777 have been informed. Interestingly no locals have been affected....
 
Noshow
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:54 pm

Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM local around 600 "invited" EK pilots will be briefed about something fleet related.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:09 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Unfortunately for some the Superjumbo is here to stay:

Yes, and most of the misfortune falls on EK itself since COVID-19 has struck down their plans to acquire newer, more efficient planes which leaves them stuck trying to make the best of a bad situation. Now they are stuck with 115+ A380s that are ill suited for the post-covid world and are stuck with the thankless mission of trying to convince Airbus to not make them take delivery of more A380s that are already in the process of being built.


We must include the 77W's in this. EK's prior decisions as mangled by COVID will have their fleet basically A380's and 77W's. The 77W's are cost competitive today with fuel prices low, but if their current 787 and 350 orders are deferred by say 5 years on average, EK will be competing against others that retired their worst planes and are now flying 787's and A350's and providing direct flights too. So it will be tough to get customers for convenience or cost, not a winning hand.

Any lease returns that can happen, will be returned. EK will be competing over-gauged, at least for the next few years.

When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:17 pm

Sokes wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The A loan is repaid from monthly lease payments, and funded largely, but not exclusively, by the funding participants.
...
The combined value of A & B loans are largely irrelevant. In the 21st century, they are not an indication of the price paid for an aircraft, or even the residual value, because adjustments can and are made for risk, value and application of OEM retrospective credits, front end contributions, calculation of end of lease balloon payments, cash in or out upfront, value and timing of OEM 'last resort' buybacks.............
...

I don't understand what you mean.

I'll translate. Sometimes the leasing company takes the risk of resale value. EK often took the risk. For those cases, EK must make good the B loan even when residual values are below estimates.

There are many complicated ways to save cash when acquiring aircraft. It is some of the most varied and complicated financing out there.

B loans are financed off residual value. However, EK is on the hook for most later A380s.

Early ones might have residual value guatantees, but that is for purchase credits. Oh, this is so complicated since there is no 2nd hand market.

Lightsaber
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Bricktop
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.
 
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par13del
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

Well POTUS has been a supporter of the OPEC+ deal of lowering output to drive up prices, fracking is the one certainty the USA has to ensure that OPEC no longer pulls the USA chain. I suspect POTUS was only pushing the backers of fracking agenda, the price needs to go up for them to be profitable, with the trillion+ spent on the virus my bet is that certain fracking companies either get bail out's or go bust and re-emerge with lower debt levels allowing them to continue to be competitive. Not sure 100+ is the desired goal, but if you look at what the world has suffered in the last few months, if OPEC get's the price of oil up rapidly before economies have recovered, it will be the biggest incentive pushing nations to alternates that OPEC has been trying to discourage for years.
 
qf3510
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:21 pm

Noshow wrote:
Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM local around 600 "invited" EK pilots will be briefed about something fleet related.


Maybe they will be returning some aircraft to lessors or training/shifting some Pilots to the new fleet?

If I was able to get some news from my friend who is in Dubai at EK, I will update you guys.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:36 am

Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:33 am

Apparently Emirates’ first A380 with premium economy is in Toulouse “ready to go”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxK_J/statu ... 3796232192
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:39 am

Ishrion wrote:
Apparently Emirates’ first A380 with premium economy is in Toulouse “ready to go”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxK_J/statu ... 3796232192


One aircraft with premium economy out of nearly 100 sounds an operational and marketing nightmare.
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slinky09
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:43 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.


While there is no alternative for aviation currently it is true that there is a significant migration away from fossil fuels in some economies across other sectors. Here in the UK we have had two months now with no coal sourced energy and more than 50% of energy coming from renewables. Germany is ahead of us and likely many other economies are too. I am looking forward to the innovations that bring such a shift to flight.
 
kulwinder
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:21 am

Second wave of pilot lay-offs underway.
Sacked employees were escorted out the back door

https://tinyurl.com/y8zkp8hw
 
dfwking
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:02 pm

kulwinder wrote:
Second wave of pilot lay-offs underway.
Sacked employees were escorted out the back door

https://tinyurl.com/y8zkp8hw



Some FlyDubai staff have received invitations today for a "meeting" with their managers for later this week.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:26 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.

Considering the layoff ("redundancy") discussion occuring in this thread, EK is finding ways to cut costs. Sad. I wonder how many A380 will be flying by the end of the year.

EK will be stuck with an out of date fleet. When oil spikes, as it does, they will be at a disadvantage to narrowbody or A350/787 fleets.

Lightsaber
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Noshow
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:27 pm

Remaining cabin crew seems to get paid only 50 percent basic salary over the summer.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:01 pm

kulwinder wrote:
Second wave of pilot lay-offs underway.
Sacked employees were escorted out the back door

https://tinyurl.com/y8zkp8hw

Interesting article.

Compare:

The second wave is targeting employees with active disciplinary cases as well as those who have been on longterm sickness according to sources who are familiar with the matter.

To:

“We have endeavoured to sustain the current family as is, we reviewed all possible scenarios in order to sustain our business operations, but have come to the conclusion that we, unfortunately, have to say goodbye to a few of the wonderful people that worked with us,” an Emirates spokesperson said on May 31.

I guess they are starting with the ill and the less wonderful.

+1 for emiratesdriver on the accurate prediction.

cv990Coronado wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Apparently Emirates’ first A380 with premium economy is in Toulouse “ready to go”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxK_J/statu ... 3796232192


One aircraft with premium economy out of nearly 100 sounds an operational and marketing nightmare.

Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet ) suggests they have 115 A380s with 8 more on order.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:11 pm

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 80771.html says 600 pilots have been sacked today and the total so far is 792, with earlier victims being new entrants with A380 FO training slots.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:53 pm

Reading oil blogs, a lot of business reporting on line, and automotive blogs I see no basis for a dramatic sustained increase in oil prices. The US capacity and willingness to produce puts a ceiling on what the rest of the world can sell and price. Prices over $40 a barrel make US production profitable. Plus Russian, Iraq, and Iran also want to sell more. China, EU, US (with India following in its lumbering sort of way) are going green in electrical production. Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs. Automotive companies are frantically pursuing BEV. Oil prices may be the least of the problems for EK.
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Sokes
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:46 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs.

In April 2020 Bloomberg new energy finance speaks of 2,3 - 5 cent/ kWh. You have a source or is it a reasonable assumption?
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Nomadd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:52 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Reading oil blogs, a lot of business reporting on line, and automotive blogs I see no basis for a dramatic sustained increase in oil prices. The US capacity and willingness to produce puts a ceiling on what the rest of the world can sell and price. Prices over $40 a barrel make US production profitable. Plus Russian, Iraq, and Iran also want to sell more. China, EU, US (with India following in its lumbering sort of way) are going green in electrical production. Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs. Automotive companies are frantically pursuing BEV. Oil prices may be the least of the problems for EK.

I have to assume you typed something you didn't intend there. Solar at 1.5 cents per kw is beyond ridiculous. The best price I've seen is around $600 a kw.
 
emiratesdriver
Posts: 290
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:21 am

Plans afoot for up to 800 more FlightCrew to be shown the door, various departments in a huge state of flux as it appears that panic has set in amongst the “Leadership” team.
Also worth noting that redundancy meetings have been temporarily suspended thanks to several unconfirmed reported suicides amongst cabin crew and potentially 1 pilot.
 
holczakker
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:00 am

Oh, my. I hope that the reports about suicides are not true.
 
cpd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:10 am

emiratesdriver wrote:
Plans afoot for up to 800 more FlightCrew to be shown the door, various departments in a huge state of flux as it appears that panic has set in amongst the “Leadership” team.
Also worth noting that redundancy meetings have been temporarily suspended thanks to several unconfirmed reported suicides amongst cabin crew and potentially 1 pilot.


Good heavens I hope that last bit isn’t true. :( There are some extremely nice people working at Emirates.

If anyone is feeling bad in that situation, please talk to someone, reach out for support. You are not any less of a person. It just means you are human like we all are.

I know that’s a bit away from the actual topic, but it needs to be said.
 
dfwking
Posts: 61
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:42 am

cpd wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
Plans afoot for up to 800 more FlightCrew to be shown the door, various departments in a huge state of flux as it appears that panic has set in amongst the “Leadership” team.
Also worth noting that redundancy meetings have been temporarily suspended thanks to several unconfirmed reported suicides amongst cabin crew and potentially 1 pilot.


Good heavens I hope that last bit isn’t true. :( There are some extremely nice people working at Emirates.

If anyone is feeling bad in that situation, please talk to someone, reach out for support. You are not any less of a person. It just means you are human like we all are.

I know that’s a bit away from the actual topic, but it needs to be said.


Some news / blog sites are picking it up as well. Sad...

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/06/11/emirates-pauses-mass-lay-offs-after-three-crew-members-reportedly-take-their-own-lives/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:05 pm

dfwking wrote:
cpd wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
Plans afoot for up to 800 more FlightCrew to be shown the door, various departments in a huge state of flux as it appears that panic has set in amongst the “Leadership” team.
Also worth noting that redundancy meetings have been temporarily suspended thanks to several unconfirmed reported suicides amongst cabin crew and potentially 1 pilot.


Good heavens I hope that last bit isn’t true. :( There are some extremely nice people working at Emirates.

If anyone is feeling bad in that situation, please talk to someone, reach out for support. You are not any less of a person. It just means you are human like we all are.

I know that’s a bit away from the actual topic, but it needs to be said.


Some news / blog sites are picking it up as well. Sad...

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/06/11/emirates-pauses-mass-lay-offs-after-three-crew-members-reportedly-take-their-own-lives/

Unfortunately, suicide upon job loss is common. In my opinion, we will have more suicides from economic loss due to Convid19 than the disease kills.

This link has numbers milder for unemployment than I've heard:

https://www.medicaldaily.com/depression ... job-321814

My heart goes out to everyone losing a job. I wish I was predicting a V recovery, but judging by the growth from TSA numbers, this will be rough. However, there is enough data to suggest we are past linear recovery and could be in the parabolic stage. Alas, such recoveries s-curve.

My condolences to the families.
I think about the Indigo pilots who jumped ship and never started. Ouch.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 304
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:07 pm

dfwking wrote:
cpd wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
Plans afoot for up to 800 more FlightCrew to be shown the door, various departments in a huge state of flux as it appears that panic has set in amongst the “Leadership” team.
Also worth noting that redundancy meetings have been temporarily suspended thanks to several unconfirmed reported suicides amongst cabin crew and potentially 1 pilot.


Good heavens I hope that last bit isn’t true. :( There are some extremely nice people working at Emirates.

If anyone is feeling bad in that situation, please talk to someone, reach out for support. You are not any less of a person. It just means you are human like we all are.

I know that’s a bit away from the actual topic, but it needs to be said.


Some news / blog sites are picking it up as well. Sad...

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/06/11/emirates-pauses-mass-lay-offs-after-three-crew-members-reportedly-take-their-own-lives/


The Gulf news says that Emirates says this is all fake news.
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1476
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:46 pm

Nomadd wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Reading oil blogs, a lot of business reporting on line, and automotive blogs I see no basis for a dramatic sustained increase in oil prices. The US capacity and willingness to produce puts a ceiling on what the rest of the world can sell and price. Prices over $40 a barrel make US production profitable. Plus Russian, Iraq, and Iran also want to sell more. China, EU, US (with India following in its lumbering sort of way) are going green in electrical production. Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs. Automotive companies are frantically pursuing BEV. Oil prices may be the least of the problems for EK.

I have to assume you typed something you didn't intend there. Solar at 1.5 cents per kw is beyond ridiculous. The best price I've seen is around $600 a kw.

I think it's a typo. The 1.5 cents is per kWh, which even so is absurdly low. Transmission costs are higher than that. Even if it's marginal "production" cost it is still very low. The $600/kW is probably capital cost per kW of construction. Again, pretty low.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:56 pm

Sokes wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs.

In April 2020 Bloomberg new energy finance speaks of 2,3 - 5 cent/ kWh. You have a source or is it a reasonable assumption?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_e ... _by_source


One of the mid-east countries just signed a lease for a solar plant, and they will buy the power at 1.5 cents a kW. The article, supporting what you said, noted that this would convert to something like 3 cents a kW for us in more northern climes.

Here's the link, I should have said 1.35 cents per kW.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/08/1- ... l-pundits/
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marcelh
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
In my opinion, we will have more suicides from economic loss due to Convid19 than the disease kills.


True, but we will never know how many people would have been killed when we Covid19 had been considered as just a flu. Not only the victims of the virus, but also those because of collapsing health care systems and impact on society and economy.
 
TUGMASTER
Posts: 1186
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:28 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
dfwking wrote:
cpd wrote:

Good heavens I hope that last bit isn’t true. :( There are some extremely nice people working at Emirates.

If anyone is feeling bad in that situation, please talk to someone, reach out for support. You are not any less of a person. It just means you are human like we all are.

I know that’s a bit away from the actual topic, but it needs to be said.


Some news / blog sites are picking it up as well. Sad...

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/06/11/emirates-pauses-mass-lay-offs-after-three-crew-members-reportedly-take-their-own-lives/


The Gulf news says that Emirates says this is all fake news.



I wouldn’t put to much reassurance on the Gulf News.
It’s a very cut and paste paper.
 
richierich
Moderator
Posts: 3627
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:46 pm

There was a post on a different thread at the beginning of Covid, and it basically said this virus will be the end of four-engine pax ops around the world. Given the number of A380s in EK's fleet, not sure a lot was given to that sentiment at the time (mid-March), but now it is not too far-fetched of an idea. Ignoring B747s for a second, I can imagine all non-EK carriers not returning to the A380 post-Covid, and if anything close to 50-75% of EK's A380s are permanently grounded, then we all know it is a dead plane flying.

There will be a pre-Covid and there will be a post-Covid. The two eras will be very different in commercial aviation, in my opinion.
None shall pass!!!!
 
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Revelation
Posts: 23954
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:43 pm

Interesting graphic on the wind down of A380 flying world-wide during March and April:

Image

Ref: https://twitter.com/SpaethFlies/status/ ... 4825170945
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FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 304
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:07 pm

TUGMASTER wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
dfwking wrote:


The Gulf news says that Emirates says this is all fake news.



I wouldn’t put to much reassurance on the Gulf News.
It’s a very cut and paste paper.


But they the quote from Emirates? That's not cut paste.
 
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PW100
Posts: 4112
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:11 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Reading oil blogs, a lot of business reporting on line, and automotive blogs I see no basis for a dramatic sustained increase in oil prices. The US capacity and willingness to produce puts a ceiling on what the rest of the world can sell and price. Prices over $40 a barrel make US production profitable. Plus Russian, Iraq, and Iran also want to sell more. China, EU, US (with India following in its lumbering sort of way) are going green in electrical production. Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs. Automotive companies are frantically pursuing BEV. Oil prices may be the least of the problems for EK.

I have to assume you typed something you didn't intend there. Solar at 1.5 cents per kw is beyond ridiculous. The best price I've seen is around $600 a kw.

I think it's a typo. The 1.5 cents is per kWh, which even so is absurdly low. Transmission costs are higher than that. Even if it's marginal "production" cost it is still very low. The $600/kW is probably capital cost per kW of construction. Again, pretty low.


Probably misunderstanding / mixing of energy units: kW vs kWh.
$600 / 3600 = 17 cents, which seems more reasonable (though sustainable energy forms should easily beat 10 cents per kW today).
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emiratesdriver
Posts: 290
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:04 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:45 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
TUGMASTER wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

The Gulf news says that Emirates says this is all fake news.



I wouldn’t put to much reassurance on the Gulf News.
It’s a very cut and paste paper.


But they the quote from Emirates? That's not cut paste.


The Ambulances and their crews that visited the sand around Silicon tower 2 would disagree with the fake news narrative.
 
mcg
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:29 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
In my opinion, we will have more suicides from economic loss due to Convid19 than the disease kills.


True, but we will never know how many people would have been killed when we Covid19 had been considered as just a flu. Not only the victims of the virus, but also those because of collapsing health care systems and impact on society and economy.


FWIW in my state in the US, suicide is down about 40% during lockdown.
 
DXBflyer
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:06 am

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:18 am

I am just wondering why did not they resort to unpaid leave option before laying off more than 825 crew in 3 days
 
A330Inter
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:59 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:55 am

DXBflyer wrote:
I am just wondering why did not they resort to unpaid leave option before laying off more than 825 crew in 3 days


Unpaid leave still has a cost to the airline and EK at this stage must have a relatively clear picture of where they won't be flying in the next 12 months.
It is clear that they won't fly 100% of their pre-Covid schedule for a long time and therefore no need for the current workforce, as sad as it is.
If they eventually need staff in 2021 im sure they won't struggle to find candidates, probably at a cheaper rate too...
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