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oschkosch
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:29 am

lightsaber wrote:
I pick India as they could be an alternative stop point for Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand to Europe.


Nobody in their right mind wants to connect through India.... Have you actually ever bee to DEL or BOM airport? These are chaotic places. I have would have an option of doing Euope-DXB-BKK or Europe DEL/BOM-BKK (just as an example), I would always take EK, even if AI would be significantly cheaper. Imagine a missed connection in India and trying to sort it out vs. the same happening in DXB.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:57 am

oschkosch wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I pick India as they could be an alternative stop point for Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand to Europe.


Nobody in their right mind wants to connect through India.... Have you actually ever bee to DEL or BOM airport? These are chaotic places. I have would have an option of doing Euope-DXB-BKK or Europe DEL/BOM-BKK (just as an example), I would always take EK, even if AI would be significantly cheaper. Imagine a missed connection in India and trying to sort it out vs. the same happening in DXB.


Very true.

Dxb is stylish and the clean. Lots to see/do.

India, no chance. Unhgenyic and never be like the dubai airport. That way ek is successful and the air Indian is a financial jokes.

Mush rather miss ek flight to be stuck in Dubai than be at risk in India with air india.

No idea why lightabber so obsessed with India. Whole concept of BRIC nations is in ruins.
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:04 am

cougar15 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Plenty of 380`s parked up to deal with that, if it happens, not just at EK but for all X customers! And 77W´s to soldier on a little longer. Starting to wonder about this X, things are not looking good....Great plane in a very different world!


And fuel prices are low as never - no reason to invest in an expensive new 777x for a slightly better efficiency.
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:16 am

Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s?
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:48 am

I predict cancellation of the whole type. I realise many here don't agree with that, almost done already etc. But, the aircraft aren't really needed.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:06 am

AirlineCritic wrote:
I predict cancellation of the whole type. I realise many here don't agree with that, almost done already etc. But, the aircraft aren't really needed.


Aren’t really needed now sure, but in a few years. I can’t see them canceling the program given that it is close to service entry now.
 
AAIRLINERS
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:32 am

Three plus years at a minimum. Hopefully they'll still be relevant at that point in time. High loads and higher fuel prices will be key. The price tag doesn't support its advantage over the 77W. And for many even the 77W is too much airplane for most missions. Good thing the 787 family is out there. Right sized good economics. Hopefully It should help Boeing compete in a number of markets in the long term.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:40 am

Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:39 am

Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.

The 779 has quite a few efficiency gains:
1. Engines
a. Variable cooling. This started in the LEAP
b. higher pressure and bypass
c. A very advanced cooling system , this cuts fuel burn
2. Wing
a. underside laminar flow
b. increased aspect ratio (minor), required for underside laminar flow.
c. Folding wingtips (allows improved aerodynamics)
3. Body
a. Longer
b. internally wider


As noted, the 77W vanquished the A388. The 779 will easily vanquish the 77W. The A388 has a CASM advantage over the 77W, but the 77W had a cargo advantage and a fuel burn advantage.

The question is, how quickly will the market will recover. As the largest in production aircraft that can be purchased, airlines will only buy if the risk isn't as bad as today.

In my opinion, the important metric is fraction of free seats vs. the A35K. I calculate that at EIS the A388 flew only 34 "free seats" vs. the 77W. As the 77W received more PiPs, that advantage shrank with time. I calculate more free seats on the 779. In other words, a small added cost per flight, but more capacity.

I do not expect the 779 to sell as well as the 77W. I do expect the 777xF to outsell the 777F. The 778, like the 77L, will have so few sales to be interesting, but not significant; assuming it is built.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


There is a rule I been reading during my quit few years here at A.net without being an expert in aviation.

Does a frame have a smaller with equal or better CASM competitor it is doomed.

So the question is does 777X sit in this situation?
 
DUSZRH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:03 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/


Publicly yes. I heard from various sources that first delivery at LH will be 2022.
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats.......

Perhaps another flaw in the thinking is the somewhat fewer seats than the A380.
When you compare the deployed seats in the A380 and the 777W then realize that the 777X only has about 2 to 5 more rows than the 777W, somewhat more seats than the 777W is more appropriate. If folks want to compare evacuation seat counts across the A380, 777W and 777X, that makes it even more interesting.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:08 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Lufthansa still expecting delivery in 2021
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-is-s ... next-year/


Publicly yes. I heard from various sources that first delivery at LH will be 2022.

Yeah that makes more sense now. Thanks
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:30 pm

par13del wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats.......

Perhaps another flaw in the thinking is the somewhat fewer seats than the A380.
When you compare the deployed seats in the A380 and the 777W then realize that the 777X only has about 2 to 5 more rows than the 777W, somewhat more seats than the 777W is more appropriate. If folks want to compare evacuation seat counts across the A380, 777W and 777X, that makes it even more interesting.

But the 779 has 10 abreast in economy; a lot of 77Ws did also but those flying near the range limits (JFK-HKG) seem to be remaining 9 abreast. All 779s will be 10 abreast, and will have the same (or maybe better, if it does exceed expectations) range as the 77W. So it will carry significantly more passengers on extreme range flights.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:01 pm

AAIRLINERS wrote:
Three plus years at a minimum. Hopefully they'll still be relevant at that point in time. High loads and higher fuel prices will be key. The price tag doesn't support its advantage over the 77W. And for many even the 77W is too much airplane for most missions. Good thing the 787 family is out there. Right sized good economics. Hopefully It should help Boeing compete in a number of markets in the long term.


British Airways, which has ordered the 779, best estimate on recovery is 2024, worst estimate is 2025/2026.

Walsh also says that BA will continue to take new aircraft, and have no plans to defer or cancel any.

The recovery he speaks is of course traffic to USA. The travel ban alone could last many months. Fauci said the ban may last until a vaccine is produced. That could be 1yr alone.
 
VictorKilo
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:20 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s?


Absolutely.

Cash rules everything around me. If Boeing can get cash in 2020 or 2021 for 789 for EK at the expense of potential profitable 779 sales in 2024, that's what they do. It means they have incrementally less to borrow in 2020 and 2021 to sustain the business.

This makes complete sense for Boeing to fully support.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:53 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


Many of the arguments predicting the A380 would not be a success are applicable to the 777X. Obviously the 777X is much smaller and much more efficient, but in the A350 and 787 it has 'competitors' that are much more flexible, barely less efficient and well-established by now. The 777X has a good customer base, but if the largest and most important customer by far wants tom reduce their orders you have to admit that the future is shaky for the 777X.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:15 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s?

Why not? Boeing do not have a choice here and do not want to piss off one of their biggest customer.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:37 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.


I'd suggest you should not try to assign motivations to people who you don't really know. I'm sure you wouldn't like others to claim motivations for yourself.
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:10 pm

Emirates Tim Clark interview with Richard Quest on CNN:

-The airline has planned for such crisis throughout its history of operations and Tim Clark has never though that the airline will face such a horrific situation. Cash Management is always a priority and the airline doesn't allow to fall below six to nine months red light, which allows it to meet all financial obligations.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHhveRTbdE0
 
acavpics
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:28 pm

Still waiting for them to get some A339's.
 
9Patch
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:47 am

olle wrote:
There is a rule I been reading during my quit few years here at A.net without being an expert in aviation.

Does a frame have a smaller with equal or better CASM competitor it is doomed.

So the question is does 777X sit in this situation?


Does the A350 sit sit in this situation too?
 
astuteman
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:18 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


A couple of flaws in the argument as far as I can see
The A380 both rose and fell in a somewhat similar timescale to the 77W.
Your logic would suggest that the demise of the A380 would leave the 77W as king of the hill - but it is just as dead as the A380.
The aircraft that have caused all of us to question the need for anything bigger (and heavier, and more expensive) are the 787 and A350
Or do our US fans of the 787's "point-to-point killer effectiveness" not believe their own rhetoric any more?

Cynical response aside, that is genuinely why some of us think that the 777X will have a hard time at best.
If the ME3 finally cotton on and join the trend then "a hard time" will be a good outcome
You just have to look at the missions 787-9, 787-10, A359 and A3510 are either doing, or planned to do.

Rgds
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:05 am

astuteman wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


You asked this rhetorically but I'm going to respond anyway.

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats, and markedly better CASM than the A380. Those are just inconvenient facts - and we see people willing to ignore facts every day.

It's not a great time to be sending the 777X into service but 'stuff happens' with costly, long-development-cycle projects. Until A and B figure out a way to launch new aircraft in 1/5 the time (and so wait to start until they see a favorable launch window), once or twice a generation we may see new aircraft launched into difficult markets.


A couple of flaws in the argument as far as I can see
The A380 both rose and fell in a somewhat similar timescale to the 77W.
Your logic would suggest that the demise of the A380 would leave the 77W as king of the hill - but it is just as dead as the A380.
The aircraft that have caused all of us to question the need for anything bigger (and heavier, and more expensive) are the 787 and A350
Or do our US fans of the 787's "point-to-point killer effectiveness" not believe their own rhetoric any more?

Cynical response aside, that is genuinely why some of us think that the 777X will have a hard time at best.
If the ME3 finally cotton on and join the trend then "a hard time" will be a good outcome
You just have to look at the missions 787-9, 787-10, A359 and A3510 are either doing, or planned to do.

Rgds

This is the most flawed argument. Given over 600 77Ws are flying and out of storage and will continue to fly for another 10-20 years. (BA getting some next month and they keep planes that king) Meanwhile no A380s are and probably less than 100 will come back. That aircraft won’t see the end of 2025 at best. So how you can make that comparison, I don’t know. Even the 747-8 will live longer than the 380 LMAOO see Lufthansa. Life doesn’t mean production btw. It means whether the aircraft will remain in service.

The 380 is a great aircraft but if as someone who loves the 777X I can admit it’s future is shaky at best, one must be able to admit the 380 is most dead aircraft flying today or rather not flying...because at least 747-8 is still flying as a freighter and will do so for a very long time. Please o.
 
flash330
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:21 am

Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


Probably because we've had 15 years of posters telling us "airlines bought the 747 for its range not capacity so now smaller aircraft can fly as far why would you need an A380?"

Suddenly having extra capacity without the extra range is a bonus.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:37 am

flash330 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why are people acting like nobody will ever need that size of aircraft in this industry again. Is it needed now? Of course not. But this talk of cancelling the program. If they didn’t cancel the 747-8 program, I’m sure this program still has life in it. Somebody said the aircraft offers little efficiency over the predecessor for the price. Maybe they know the efficiency figures or something so they can tell us


Probably because we've had 15 years of posters telling us "airlines bought the 747 for its range not capacity so now smaller aircraft can fly as far why would you need an A380?"

Suddenly having extra capacity without the extra range is a bonus.

I don't know who those posters are, but I mean, i don't agree with that, i know the largest operator of the 747 (BA) certainly did not buy it because of its range
 
Strato2
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:26 am

Opus99 wrote:
This is the most flawed argument. Given over 600 77Ws are flying and out of storage and will continue to fly for another 10-20 years. (BA getting some next month and they keep planes that king) Meanwhile no A380s are and probably less than 100 will come back. That aircraft won’t see the end of 2025 at best. So how you can make that comparison, I don’t know. Even the 747-8 will live longer than the 380 LMAOO see Lufthansa. Life doesn’t mean production btw. It means whether the aircraft will remain in service.


Even if less than 100 A380's come back (and more will just wait and see) it's three times the whole production run of 747-8i. There will be still A380 plying the skies when the last Intercontinental is rotting in the Mojave desert or converted to cargo but even that prospect is dubious considering the ample feedstock of better P2F planes.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:16 pm

The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?
Last edited by frmrCapCadet on Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:20 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:24 pm

marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Boeing spent it to save a niche. The 777W cannot compete against the larger 350s.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:33 pm

marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Actually, it is a niche aircraft. The smaller -8 got too much range and higher fuel consumption (just like the -200LR situation). The larger -9 is too big for majority of airlines even though it's super efficient.

B777-300ER sat between these 2 aircraft. Doesn't have as much range as the -8 and smaller than the -9. It's a perfect formula that can't be replicate with 2 different aircraft that fulfill none of the -300ER function for most part.

-300ER is a game changer, the -8/-9 is not.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:02 pm

ewt340 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Actually, it is a niche aircraft. The smaller -8 got too much range and higher fuel consumption (just like the -200LR situation). The larger -9 is too big for majority of airlines even though it's super efficient.

B777-300ER sat between these 2 aircraft. Doesn't have as much range as the -8 and smaller than the -9. It's a perfect formula that can't be replicate with 2 different aircraft that fulfill none of the -300ER function for most part.

-300ER is a game changer, the -8/-9 is not.

You make a very good point here, i don't see the -9 as a game changer as such, but the question i have is when does an aircraft become too big. i am of the opinion that if you can fill a 300er you can fill a -9. a standard 2 class config of the 300er is 396 according to boeing some airlines (air canada & emirates) have configs north of 425. for the -9 its 426 in a standard two class - bear in mind with 7 abreast in business class in a standard 2 class and 350 in a 3 class so really its either 3 extra rows of economy seating or about 2 rows of business class or if you're qatar 1 extra row of business class. the whole frame is only extended by about 9ft
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:12 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?

I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

I'm not sure what Boeing should have done instead. They could have chosen to follow the original Yellowstone roadmap and do an all CFRP replacement, but their botched 787 execution left them very short of time and money while Airbus had put in extra time and money to move the A350-1000 up market. They could have done the big spend and attacked head on but would have made both companies enter a price fight no one wanted. Instead they do the moderate spend to take on new wings and engines and system tweaks to attack the available market.

CV19 is a true wildcard because it attacks the largest airplanes the most, yet post recovery it will have gotten a lot of A380s and 744s retired off leaving room for 77X to grow. 77X has won orders against A350 before CV19, if we have a robust recovery I don't see why the trend would not continue.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:43 pm

One question I have: Didn't EK repeatedly doubt the 787-10 and even the plane in general because it didn't work in the hot Dubai climate? How will deferring the 777x, a better plane for their climate, help? The 787-10 and 777-9 are similar-sized in ways, right? And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
One question I have: Didn't EK repeatedly doubt the 787-10 and even the plane in general because it didn't work in the hot Dubai climate? How will deferring the 777x, a better plane for their climate, help? The 787-10 and 777-9 are similar-sized in ways, right? And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


787-10, 2 class: 330 seats
777-9, 2 class: 426seats

779 is quite a bit bigger.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:06 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
One question I have: Didn't EK repeatedly doubt the 787-10 and even the plane in general because it didn't work in the hot Dubai climate? How will deferring the 777x, a better plane for their climate, help? The 787-10 and 777-9 are similar-sized in ways, right? And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


787-10, 2 class: 330 seats
777-9, 2 class: 426seats

779 is quite a bit bigger.

Yes, and EK has 787-9 on order, not -10, so I'm not sure why it'd be the basis of comparison. They did order -10 back in 2017 but that order did get dropped in favor of -9.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:48 pm

the 778 is supposed to be more efficient than the A359, just not by a whole lot. Whereas the 779 has more seats - about the same trip costs but 60 more seats helps CASM a lot. The truth will come out when Boeing finally announces if the 779 meets its fuel efficiency goal or not.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:29 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Deleted for Readability - See above


Many of the arguments predicting the A380 would not be a success are applicable to the 777X. Obviously the 777X is much smaller and much more efficient, but in the A350 and 787 it has 'competitors' that are much more flexible, barely less efficient and well-established by now. The 777X has a good customer base, but if the largest and most important customer by far wants tom reduce their orders you have to admit that the future is shaky for the 777X.


As one of the original 2 or 3 people who originally argued that the A380 did not make any business sense... you are so wrong in your statement about why those select few of us pointed out the flaws in the A380 business case were saying it did not work.

The A380 was a huge jump in capacity compared to any other aircraft: The B777-300 (which had poor and declining sales) had a published seating capacity of 396 (according to Wiki) and Skytamer says actual seating ranged between 314 and 451 seats. The B777-300ER ("W") had not yet been introduced.

The B747-400 had already seen its heyday and production was already significantly slowing. Wiki does not list an official Boeing published seating capacity for the B744; but my research indicates that it ranged from 275 on British Airways to 565 on ANA domestic routes. I've seen several mentions of the B744 with a typical 400 seats for a 3 class layout. This was an aircraft already well past its prime in sales that the A380 was targeting.

Airbus introduced a "nominal - typical" 525 seat 3 class aircraft at the very time that the nominal 400 seat aircraft (both 744 & 773) were not selling well with noticeably declining sales. Wiki says that the A380 has been configured in the range of 407 by Korean Air to 615 seats by Emirates, with the typical being in the 480-490 seat range.

This new Aircraft was also so large and heavy that most airports in the world that could accommodate a 747 or a B777-300 could not accommodate it without disrupting airport operations. An entirely new larger gate class was created. Airports typically had to spend over a $Billion to relocate taxiways, buildings, and build special gates for it.

It was quite obvious to a few of us that this new VLA only had a very restricted market slot... and that there was a limited number of city pairs that could realistically use it. I personally believe it was more of an EGO trip for Europe than anything else... and it turns out a very expensive one at that.

The B777-300ER ("W") was introduced a few years later with the same Boeing same "published" 396 seating capacity (per Wiki) with better fuel economy and range... which essentially dominated the market for the near 400 seat market (838 sales), and killed off both the A380 and B748 as well.

The B777-900 (& 800) are a modest increase in seating capacity successor to the most successful selling "large" aircraft of the last 20 years, and will have improved fuel economy. It likely will not match its predecessors sale numbers... but, its not out of place in the market like the A380 was. It does not represent a large increasing in routine passenger demand with an aircraft that requires airports to modify their base infrastructure to routinely use it as did the A380.

In fact, in my opinion it does seem to be targeted to the upper portion of the "Large" aircraft market. The A350-1000 is similarly targeted.

Have a great day,
 
2175301
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:10 pm

My above analysis left out the A340, with a "nominal" seating capacity of 380 in its later versions. My apologies. While it was being used to replace early 747's at the time of the launch of the A380; overall adding it into the analysis still showed a declining market for aircraft in or near the nominal 400 seat range when the A380 was announced.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:36 pm

Opus99 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


Actually, it is a niche aircraft. The smaller -8 got too much range and higher fuel consumption (just like the -200LR situation). The larger -9 is too big for majority of airlines even though it's super efficient.

B777-300ER sat between these 2 aircraft. Doesn't have as much range as the -8 and smaller than the -9. It's a perfect formula that can't be replicate with 2 different aircraft that fulfill none of the -300ER function for most part.

-300ER is a game changer, the -8/-9 is not.

You make a very good point here, i don't see the -9 as a game changer as such, but the question i have is when does an aircraft become too big. i am of the opinion that if you can fill a 300er you can fill a -9. a standard 2 class config of the 300er is 396 according to boeing some airlines (air canada & emirates) have configs north of 425. for the -9 its 426 in a standard two class - bear in mind with 7 abreast in business class in a standard 2 class and 350 in a 3 class so really its either 3 extra rows of economy seating or about 2 rows of business class or if you're qatar 1 extra row of business class. the whole frame is only extended by about 9ft


Well, usually when I try to calculated aircraft capacity, I follow each airlines individual configurations (seat pitch, number of galleys and lavatories and how many abreast they fitted in their cabin). After looking at those factors for airlines like Emirates, Air France, AA, or Air Canada. I found that B777-9 could actually carry around 40-50 extra economy class passengers if we keep the number of business class and premium economy seats the same. I use this as comparison.

The other factor is the fact that B777-9 is certified to be fitted with 8 Type A doors. The -300ER only certified with 10 Type A doors. Each pair uses around 63" of space (or 3 frames). This alone, allow 2 rows of economy class seats which resulted in 20 seats at 31"-32" seat pitch. This is one of the biggest reason to why the capacity increased soo much even though they only got 2.87m extension.

Emirates would be able to add up to 35 seats with on B777-9 with their current 2 class configuration.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:42 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Actually, it is a niche aircraft. The smaller -8 got too much range and higher fuel consumption (just like the -200LR situation). The larger -9 is too big for majority of airlines even though it's super efficient.

B777-300ER sat between these 2 aircraft. Doesn't have as much range as the -8 and smaller than the -9. It's a perfect formula that can't be replicate with 2 different aircraft that fulfill none of the -300ER function for most part.

-300ER is a game changer, the -8/-9 is not.

You make a very good point here, i don't see the -9 as a game changer as such, but the question i have is when does an aircraft become too big. i am of the opinion that if you can fill a 300er you can fill a -9. a standard 2 class config of the 300er is 396 according to boeing some airlines (air canada & emirates) have configs north of 425. for the -9 its 426 in a standard two class - bear in mind with 7 abreast in business class in a standard 2 class and 350 in a 3 class so really its either 3 extra rows of economy seating or about 2 rows of business class or if you're qatar 1 extra row of business class. the whole frame is only extended by about 9ft


Well, usually when I try to calculated aircraft capacity, I follow each airlines individual configurations (seat pitch, number of galleys and lavatories and how many abreast they fitted in their cabin). After looking at those factors for airlines like Emirates, Air France, AA, or Air Canada. I found that B777-9 could actually carry around 40-50 extra economy class passengers if we keep the number of business class and premium economy seats the same. I use this as comparison.

The other factor is the fact that B777-9 is certified to be fitted with 8 Type A doors. The -300ER only certified with 10 Type A doors. Each pair uses around 63" of space (or 3 frames). This alone, allow 2 rows of economy class seats which resulted in 20 seats at 31"-32" seat pitch. This is one of the biggest reason to why the capacity increased soo much even though they only got 2.87m extension.

Emirates would be able to add up to 35 seats with on B777-9 with their current 2 class configuration.

let's not forget i think after a certain amount of seats you need 10 type A doors, or is that completely optional?
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:04 pm

Opus99 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You make a very good point here, i don't see the -9 as a game changer as such, but the question i have is when does an aircraft become too big. i am of the opinion that if you can fill a 300er you can fill a -9. a standard 2 class config of the 300er is 396 according to boeing some airlines (air canada & emirates) have configs north of 425. for the -9 its 426 in a standard two class - bear in mind with 7 abreast in business class in a standard 2 class and 350 in a 3 class so really its either 3 extra rows of economy seating or about 2 rows of business class or if you're qatar 1 extra row of business class. the whole frame is only extended by about 9ft


Well, usually when I try to calculated aircraft capacity, I follow each airlines individual configurations (seat pitch, number of galleys and lavatories and how many abreast they fitted in their cabin). After looking at those factors for airlines like Emirates, Air France, AA, or Air Canada. I found that B777-9 could actually carry around 40-50 extra economy class passengers if we keep the number of business class and premium economy seats the same. I use this as comparison.

The other factor is the fact that B777-9 is certified to be fitted with 8 Type A doors. The -300ER only certified with 10 Type A doors. Each pair uses around 63" of space (or 3 frames). This alone, allow 2 rows of economy class seats which resulted in 20 seats at 31"-32" seat pitch. This is one of the biggest reason to why the capacity increased soo much even though they only got 2.87m extension.

Emirates would be able to add up to 35 seats with on B777-9 with their current 2 class configuration.

let's not forget i think after a certain amount of seats you need 10 type A doors, or is that completely optional?


1 pair of Type A doors allow 110 passengers. As long as you keep the seat account bellow 440 seats, you only need 8 Type A doors.

This is the reason why B777-300ER certified to carry 550 seats. Or how A350-900 and B777-200 are certified to carry 440 seats.

Some modifications could be done to the slide to allow more passengers to disembark at the same time, this would allow extra passengers count. But it depends on the Governing body.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:46 am

2175301 wrote:
The B777-300ER ("W") was introduced a few years later with the same Boeing same "published" 396 seating capacity (per Wiki) with better fuel economy and range... which essentially dominated the market for the near 400 seat market (838 sales), and killed off both the A380 and B748 as well.

Have a great day,


Even so, the 77W initial sales were good not great, twice after EIS it had very successful sales periods. A lot of airlines that had some went back a couple times with new orders because it was performing well. In that first big pulse of orders after EIS was when it was apparent the B748i wasn't attracting orders.

In 2005 153 orders, 2007 110 orders, 2011 194 orders, and 2013 121 orders, I recall the 77X sales started in 2014. The 77W basically killed off all the other 777's introduced before it.

I believe it was the 77W's ability to really carry a lot of belly cargo even with a full pax load made the difference.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:38 am

2175301 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Deleted for Readability - See above


Many of the arguments predicting the A380 would not be a success are applicable to the 777X. Obviously the 777X is much smaller and much more efficient, but in the A350 and 787 it has 'competitors' that are much more flexible, barely less efficient and well-established by now. The 777X has a good customer base, but if the largest and most important customer by far wants tom reduce their orders you have to admit that the future is shaky for the 777X.


As one of the original 2 or 3 people who originally argued that the A380 did not make any business sense... you are so wrong in your statement about why those select few of us pointed out the flaws in the A380 business case were saying it did not work.

The A380 was a huge jump in capacity compared to any other aircraft: The B777-300 (which had poor and declining sales) had a published seating capacity of 396 (according to Wiki) and Skytamer says actual seating ranged between 314 and 451 seats. The B777-300ER ("W") had not yet been introduced.

The B747-400 had already seen its heyday and production was already significantly slowing. Wiki does not list an official Boeing published seating capacity for the B744; but my research indicates that it ranged from 275 on British Airways to 565 on ANA domestic routes. I've seen several mentions of the B744 with a typical 400 seats for a 3 class layout. This was an aircraft already well past its prime in sales that the A380 was targeting.

Airbus introduced a "nominal - typical" 525 seat 3 class aircraft at the very time that the nominal 400 seat aircraft (both 744 & 773) were not selling well with noticeably declining sales. Wiki says that the A380 has been configured in the range of 407 by Korean Air to 615 seats by Emirates, with the typical being in the 480-490 seat range.

This new Aircraft was also so large and heavy that most airports in the world that could accommodate a 747 or a B777-300 could not accommodate it without disrupting airport operations. An entirely new larger gate class was created. Airports typically had to spend over a $Billion to relocate taxiways, buildings, and build special gates for it.

It was quite obvious to a few of us that this new VLA only had a very restricted market slot... and that there was a limited number of city pairs that could realistically use it. I personally believe it was more of an EGO trip for Europe than anything else... and it turns out a very expensive one at that.

The B777-300ER ("W") was introduced a few years later with the same Boeing same "published" 396 seating capacity (per Wiki) with better fuel economy and range... which essentially dominated the market for the near 400 seat market (838 sales), and killed off both the A380 and B748 as well.

The B777-900 (& 800) are a modest increase in seating capacity successor to the most successful selling "large" aircraft of the last 20 years, and will have improved fuel economy. It likely will not match its predecessors sale numbers... but, its not out of place in the market like the A380 was. It does not represent a large increasing in routine passenger demand with an aircraft that requires airports to modify their base infrastructure to routinely use it as did the A380.

In fact, in my opinion it does seem to be targeted to the upper portion of the "Large" aircraft market. The A350-1000 is similarly targeted.

Have a great day,


I think the same arguments are applicable, not on the same scale, but still. No, the 777X is not much larger than the 77W, especially for most airlines who use 10ab seating. However it is still the largest aircraft on offer by a fair margin. The other thing to consider: the A380 had one 'competitor': the 77W, whereas the 777X 'competes' with two: the 787 and A350. Two competitors, both of which are very popular and have been in service for a few years now, with most problems ironed out. The 777X is/will be more efficient per seat, but how many airlines will want an aircraft that is a fair bit harder to fill than the A359 or 789? Apparently not that high a number, and even those that have ordered it are thinking about/have already trimmed 777X orders.

Another thing to consider: apart from NH, every 777X customer has operated A380s. While the 777X should have wider appeal, it does show that the 777X will mostly find homes at airlines that thought they could fill A380s... but this isn't a massive market, and we know airlines will want to replace with smaller, AF have already replaced their A380s for example. I can't see too many airlines outside the A380's customer base ordering the 777X, though UA and AA would be very big scalps to take. Equally though, they may decide that the 787 and A350 work better for them.

While ordinarily I wouldn't think the 777X is too big, that's not particularly its problem, its problem is that there are competitors which are cheaper, less risky, available soon, more flexible and easier to fill with passengers for only a minor loss in efficiency per seat. That would be compelling enough on its own in normal times, but at a time when demand is really going to struggle for a while the 777X is a much harder sell.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:59 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Another thing to consider: apart from NH, every 777X customer has operated A380s.


Just a quick FYI: ANA has 3 A380s, JA381A, JA382A, and undelivered JA383A.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:08 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Another thing to consider: apart from NH, every 777X customer has operated A380s. While the 777X should have wider appeal, it does show that the 777X will mostly find homes at airlines that thought they could fill A380s...


I’m assuming you mean Cathay Pacific, not ANA?
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:10 am

VCVSpotter wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Another thing to consider: apart from NH, every 777X customer has operated A380s.


Just a quick FYI: ANA has 3 A380s, JA381A, JA382A, and undelivered JA383A.


Ishrion wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Another thing to consider: apart from NH, every 777X customer has operated A380s. While the 777X should have wider appeal, it does show that the 777X will mostly find homes at airlines that thought they could fill A380s...


I’m assuming you mean Cathay Pacific, not ANA?


Gah, messed that one up. NH is kind of an outlier, the A380s were more or less forced on them, but yes, of course CX should be included.
 
astuteman
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:02 am

2175301 wrote:
My above analysis left out the A340, with a "nominal" seating capacity of 380 in its later versions. My apologies. While it was being used to replace early 747's at the time of the launch of the A380; overall adding it into the analysis still showed a declining market for aircraft in or near the nominal 400 seat range when the A380 was announced.

Have a great day,


I think this comment makes the point really well.
The market for aircraft "in or near the 400 seat range" has been declining for a long time.

The 777X may only be slightly larger than the 77W, but the sweet spot in the widebody market was already moving from the 400 seaters and into the A330/787 to 77W range when the A380 was announced.
It seems pretty unavoidable to me that the 787 and A350 "killed" the A380 in the same way that they have "killed" the 77W.
Anything larger than these two excellent mid size twins is inevitably going to be the more vulnerable airframe.

Rgds
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:25 am

MrHMSH wrote:
2175301 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

Many of the arguments predicting the A380 would not be a success are applicable to the 777X. Obviously the 777X is much smaller and much more efficient, but in the A350 and 787 it has 'competitors' that are much more flexible, barely less efficient and well-established by now. The 777X has a good customer base, but if the largest and most important customer by far wants tom reduce their orders you have to admit that the future is shaky for the 777X.


As one of the original 2 or 3 people who originally argued that the A380 did not make any business sense... you are so wrong in your statement about why those select few of us pointed out the flaws in the A380 business case were saying it did not work.

The A380 was a huge jump in capacity compared to any other aircraft: The B777-300 (which had poor and declining sales) had a published seating capacity of 396 (according to Wiki) and Skytamer says actual seating ranged between 314 and 451 seats. The B777-300ER ("W") had not yet been introduced.

The B747-400 had already seen its heyday and production was already significantly slowing. Wiki does not list an official Boeing published seating capacity for the B744; but my research indicates that it ranged from 275 on British Airways to 565 on ANA domestic routes. I've seen several mentions of the B744 with a typical 400 seats for a 3 class layout. This was an aircraft already well past its prime in sales that the A380 was targeting.

Airbus introduced a "nominal - typical" 525 seat 3 class aircraft at the very time that the nominal 400 seat aircraft (both 744 & 773) were not selling well with noticeably declining sales. Wiki says that the A380 has been configured in the range of 407 by Korean Air to 615 seats by Emirates, with the typical being in the 480-490 seat range.

This new Aircraft was also so large and heavy that most airports in the world that could accommodate a 747 or a B777-300 could not accommodate it without disrupting airport operations. An entirely new larger gate class was created. Airports typically had to spend over a $Billion to relocate taxiways, buildings, and build special gates for it.

It was quite obvious to a few of us that this new VLA only had a very restricted market slot... and that there was a limited number of city pairs that could realistically use it. I personally believe it was more of an EGO trip for Europe than anything else... and it turns out a very expensive one at that.

The B777-300ER ("W") was introduced a few years later with the same Boeing same "published" 396 seating capacity (per Wiki) with better fuel economy and range... which essentially dominated the market for the near 400 seat market (838 sales), and killed off both the A380 and B748 as well.

The B777-900 (& 800) are a modest increase in seating capacity successor to the most successful selling "large" aircraft of the last 20 years, and will have improved fuel economy. It likely will not match its predecessors sale numbers... but, its not out of place in the market like the A380 was. It does not represent a large increasing in routine passenger demand with an aircraft that requires airports to modify their base infrastructure to routinely use it as did the A380.

In fact, in my opinion it does seem to be targeted to the upper portion of the "Large" aircraft market. The A350-1000 is similarly targeted.

Have a great day,


I think the same arguments are applicable, not on the same scale, but still. No, the 777X is not much larger than the 77W, especially for most airlines who use 10ab seating. However it is still the largest aircraft on offer by a fair margin. The other thing to consider: the A380 had one 'competitor': the 77W, whereas the 777X 'competes' with two: the 787 and A350. Two competitors, both of which are very popular and have been in service for a few years now, with most problems ironed out. The 777X is/will be more efficient per seat, but how many airlines will want an aircraft that is a fair bit harder to fill than the A359 or 789? Apparently not that high a number, and even those that have ordered it are thinking about/have already trimmed 777X orders.

Another thing to consider: apart from NH, every 777X customer has operated A380s. While the 777X should have wider appeal, it does show that the 777X will mostly find homes at airlines that thought they could fill A380s... but this isn't a massive market, and we know airlines will want to replace with smaller, AF have already replaced their A380s for example. I can't see too many airlines outside the A380's customer base ordering the 777X, though UA and AA would be very big scalps to take. Equally though, they may decide that the 787 and A350 work better for them.

While ordinarily I wouldn't think the 777X is too big, that's not particularly its problem, its problem is that there are competitors which are cheaper, less risky, available soon, more flexible and easier to fill with passengers for only a minor loss in efficiency per seat. That would be compelling enough on its own in normal times, but at a time when demand is really going to struggle for a while the 777X is a much harder sell.

These are very valuable points and they are hard to ignore. I think one you really got about the 777X vs the 77Ws case is that now there are A LOT more options on the market compared to the when the 77W came online so airlines may not need that size of aircraft but the funny thing is when you look at it many still do. Not in the number they ordered the 77Ws. But many airlines still need that. Look at Air France. Air France us about to densify a 77W to seat 480 passengers. I honestly didn’t even know that was possible. You also have KL whom have now been converted to an all Boeing fleet and will remain that way. There is only one thing Boeing is going to sell to them when it’s time to replace their 77Ws and then of course the Chinese airlines. They have need for aircrafts this size, China southern operates a 361 seater in a three class, no other aircraft is going to give them that seat count and they only have it in numbers of 15. So what I’m saying is. Airlines have a need for this size of aircraft because they will have routes to fill it up but certainly NOT in the numbers of the 77W where it’s the best thing on the market but you buy a lot to also operate the routes that might not work for it. Take for example CX they have the 350-1000 and the 777-9 on order why? Because one is fantastic at 3 class operations the other is fantastic at 4 class operations. Like you said options in the market are key but I don’t see it as a problem, I just see it as what will stop it from selling in the volumes the 77W will. So the market for the 777X very much exists. Look at Swiss air even. Their 77W seats 340 passengers with w first class cabin and a premium economy cabin coming in Q1 2021 and 62 seats in business class. There’s only one aircraft that give them those numbers super efficiently. Now there’s this misconception that because the 777X is the biggest aircraft on the market it makes it too big. Like the I said the next smaller aircraft is smaller by about 30 seats now. I looked at Boeing’s 777X document released March 2018 and it has the 777X at 414 seats in a standard two class. That standard two class takes into account more modern business class seating (so not 7 abreast) in BA’s config it’s at about 325 seats the a350 in BA’s config is at about 331 albeit an increase of 17 premium seats both first and business included. Now in BA’s config the 380 was at 469 seats! And that’s with 97 business class seats. So you can see how off the radar the 380 was to the point that the people who thought they needed it still didn’t they had never carried that number of passengers before. With the 777X there’s proof in the need for the size of the aircraft and the efficiency it delivers makes it more appealing to have it in a smaller number for your very high traffic markets. Every major airline has those markets and the 777X will do just fine in them. Like lightsaber said. It’s all about the opportunity cost of going for the slightly smaller A35K he says there’s a small cost penalty for taking on the 777X over the 35K but there’s the big opportunity to make much more revenue on the route so it’s all about what maximises profit for you on that route.

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