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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.

The problem is that we now need to redefine near term, it's hard to use the term without a redefinition.

Even before CV19 the press was talking about the airliner bubble. Even before CV19 RR was losing money due to the cost of T1000 rework and compensation. Even before CV19, GE was restructuring at the corporate level. Even before CV19, PW was struggling with GTF "durability" issues. Even before CV19, Boeing was up to its eyeballs in red ink due to MCAS and had stood down NMA. Now with CV19 the entire revenue stream of the entire industry has taken a ~80% hit and no one can predict the recovery timeline. Now the industry is still coasting on financing secured before CV19 and it's clear the financial community is going to be taking some major hits as many of their assumptions about asset value are now incorrect so new financing will be very challenging. The world's largest economy is now entering Wave 1b of CV19.

I think all the major players had just made huge investments before CV19 and will be very reluctant to make huge investments after CV19 until their old investments are paying off, and I think that will take longer than most people think.
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:55 pm

johns624 wrote:
Duh, that's a nobrainer. Look at it from the opposite point of view. Boeing has the 777X and 787 and Airbus has the A350 and A330neo. All are relatively new designs. Why would there be a new widebody for years?


That was my reaction too.... Sort of a Captian Obvious Conclusion even pre-Covid19. We always knew NMA was going to be a single isle anyway.... so no one was really expecting any new widebodies for sometimes... sans that aforementioned 767-400 freighter... and perhaps some wb freighter activity on the Airbus side... Boeing wasn't going to have a line-up of 3 widebodies 777,787,797(nma) and still just fly around the 737MAX for single aisle mission/markets....
learning never stops...

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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:43 pm

2175301 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The only new wide-body I could see launching is the Airbus A330-800neo-based freighter at 251 metric tons, which would be an instant improvement over the 233 metric ton A332 freighter (which could also be de-rated to 242 metric tons)...the idea being to have enough range to compete with the Boeing 777 freighter. The Boeing 767 will need to be re-engined, as I do see hundreds of examples, mostly if not all freighters by then, with maybe LATAM and a few CIS operators still flying passenger examples, still in service by then.

Why new build freighter when so many frames are going to be available to convert?


The question, which I have not yet figured out from the "proposed" EPA Aircraft emissions standard: How are P2F conversions handled under the standard? That was not obvious to me. It is obvious that the current 767F will not be allowed when the 2028 standards kick in. Does that also mean that 767 P2F conversions also stop at that point? That only the "neo's" "max" or other recent upgrade designations can be converted?

This question clearly also applies to the older models of most of the Airbus products as well.

The devil will be in the detail, yet to be determined.

However, if the regulations parallel ICAO definitions, unless P2F conversions are re-engined, 767 conversions will cease.

Outside the USA, the environmental community is confident Biden will tighten, widen and bring forward US aviation participation and compliance.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:48 pm

lightsaber wrote:
UA748i wrote:
As a huge 777X fan, it might actually be a few years too late. It will certainly be the last "VLA" as we know it, but will survive, IMHO.

Its my opinion that Boeing Commercial Airplanes should:

-Continue development of the FSA. Launch it mid decade, EIS late decade, to replace the MAX.
-Consider a 787-9LR and 787-10LR as eventual 777X successors (Rewing, Reengine?)
-767 updates
-Early next decade, perhaps revisit SSTs and Hybrids, perhaps reapproach Embraer as a JV.

I'm going to disagree. In the industry, we look for step changes in efficiency. That would be the Blended Wing Body (BwB). It has huge structural efficiency advantages and some aerodynamic advantages. I participated in studies that I believe have cleared the evacuation issues. The BwB efficiency grows with scale more than a cigar with wings.

The VLA requires a significant efficiency advantage due to the risk of not filling seats (likely to be realized).

Eventually we will have another VLA. (Never say never) Certainly not in the near term.

Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.

Lightsaber


A blended wing body aircraft has about as much chance of occurring in the next 20 years as the Handley Page skewed wing SST did of becoming reality.

With only two major aircraft makers, they can just put on the brakes for development and do as little as possible. Minor improvements and changes, little more. Nothing risky.

That will be safest. I suspect an SST might be a possibility down the track with variable cycle engines, but it’s surely a long way off and it probably won’t be in the remainder of my lifetime.

This pandemic still isn’t defeated yet either.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:18 pm

Aither wrote:
A smaller market does not mean smaller widebody aircraft.
A smaller market means less routes, less frequencies and more focus on the top markets.

I believe what will suffer the most are the so called point to point routes or routes with little connecting traffic. Typically routes promoted by Boeing as the "787 routes". I fear many wont come back before years and if they do and are within the A321 XLR range then they could restart with the A321XLR.

I also believe the hub to hub routes like SIN to LHR etc should remain operated by large widebody however as they will benefit from the traffic which can no longer fly point to point and maybe less Airlines on the routes. Also there should be less emphasis on frequencies as business traffic will be slow to recover.

All in all it should not be a surprise if we observe less but on average larger widebody being used on the long haut markets .


Actually it does mean smaller aircraft. Think about it. Many major routes would be back and running again, but unlike before, many major airport would have way more free slots because there would be many routes that got cut.

This would led to airlines using smaller aircraft for frequency because they got soo many excess slots. And many of them would prefer to stick to profitability rather than capacity right now.
Also, it seems like a second wave are more likely. So it's not like we are currently got the demands back.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
UA748i wrote:
As a huge 777X fan, it might actually be a few years too late. It will certainly be the last "VLA" as we know it, but will survive, IMHO.

Its my opinion that Boeing Commercial Airplanes should:

-Continue development of the FSA. Launch it mid decade, EIS late decade, to replace the MAX.
-Consider a 787-9LR and 787-10LR as eventual 777X successors (Rewing, Reengine?)
-767 updates
-Early next decade, perhaps revisit SSTs and Hybrids, perhaps reapproach Embraer as a JV.

I'm going to disagree. In the industry, we look for step changes in efficiency. That would be the Blended Wing Body (BwB). It has huge structural efficiency advantages and some aerodynamic advantages. I participated in studies that I believe have cleared the evacuation issues. The BwB efficiency grows with scale more than a cigar with wings.

The VLA requires a significant efficiency advantage due to the risk of not filling seats (likely to be realized).

Eventually we will have another VLA. (Never say never) Certainly not in the near term.

Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.

Lightsaber


Realistically speaking, if we look at what both Airbus and Boeing had done in the last few decades. We know such project in near future would be out of the question.

What really happened was both manufacturer goes with safer and cheaper options that they know would work rather than creating a new model that revolutionized the industry. Even the next-gen aircraft like B787 and A350 were design using traditional design rather than an experimental one.

Currently we are at the point of maximizing efficiency for older design like engines, fuselage, wings, etc. But there isn't much development in technology that could actually revolutionized the industry.
The best one we had soo far is composite materials. But that technology has been proven on military aircraft for decades. So it's actually an older technology that just got implemented into commercial side. It's already there for a long time.

BwB is a big risk that could bankrupt either company. Heck, even a re-engine project caused soo much problems with Boeing.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:36 pm

cpd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
UA748i wrote:
As a huge 777X fan, it might actually be a few years too late. It will certainly be the last "VLA" as we know it, but will survive, IMHO.

Its my opinion that Boeing Commercial Airplanes should:

-Continue development of the FSA. Launch it mid decade, EIS late decade, to replace the MAX.
-Consider a 787-9LR and 787-10LR as eventual 777X successors (Rewing, Reengine?)
-767 updates
-Early next decade, perhaps revisit SSTs and Hybrids, perhaps reapproach Embraer as a JV.

I'm going to disagree. In the industry, we look for step changes in efficiency. That would be the Blended Wing Body (BwB). It has huge structural efficiency advantages and some aerodynamic advantages. I participated in studies that I believe have cleared the evacuation issues. The BwB efficiency grows with scale more than a cigar with wings.

The VLA requires a significant efficiency advantage due to the risk of not filling seats (likely to be realized).

Eventually we will have another VLA. (Never say never) Certainly not in the near term.

Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.

Lightsaber


A blended wing body aircraft has about as much chance of occurring in the next 20 years as the Handley Page skewed wing SST did of becoming reality.

With only two major aircraft makers, they can just put on the brakes for development and do as little as possible. Minor improvements and changes, little more. Nothing risky.

That will be safest. I suspect an SST might be a possibility down the track with variable cycle engines, but it’s surely a long way off and it probably won’t be in the remainder of my lifetime.

This pandemic still isn’t defeated yet either.

SST is so costly, it will only be for limited passenger payloads. We'll have to see how those go in this downturn.

I don't expect a BwB soon, but the basic efficiency is there. Everyone is trying to bring that efficiency. As you note, there are only two vendors who will, like all near monopolies, restrain development. There is always development of those thinking of re-entering the civil market. Businesses are always looking for opportunities.

But with the Boeing BwB x-48, Northrop UCAS, B-21 Raider, and Airbus MAVERIC (I know, small), research continues.
The reality is supersonic transport requires 1st class and higher pricing to move people that quickly.

If you want to cut the cost of air travel, the BwB is a fairly mature technology. The issue, is the efficiency is a *huge* function of scale. The gains really only start for a 250 seater. As environmental concerns grow, there will be a need for a step function reduction in fuel burn. The BwB is one of the few step functions waiting to be implemented now that GTFs are flying, variable cycle in engines has started (just started), and the first bit of CMCs will on the 779.

I worked a little consulting on the Sonic Cruiser very early in my carrier. I was appalled at the sharp increase in fuel burn. For Supersonic flight, that is far worse.

But for the next few years, this is idle discussion.

Lightsaber
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:31 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Aither wrote:
A smaller market does not mean smaller widebody aircraft.
A smaller market means less routes, less frequencies and more focus on the top markets.

I believe what will suffer the most are the so called point to point routes or routes with little connecting traffic. Typically routes promoted by Boeing as the "787 routes". I fear many wont come back before years and if they do and are within the A321 XLR range then they could restart with the A321XLR.

I also believe the hub to hub routes like SIN to LHR etc should remain operated by large widebody however as they will benefit from the traffic which can no longer fly point to point and maybe less Airlines on the routes. Also there should be less emphasis on frequencies as business traffic will be slow to recover.

All in all it should not be a surprise if we observe less but on average larger widebody being used on the long haut markets .


Actually it does mean smaller aircraft. Think about it. Many major routes would be back and running again, but unlike before, many major airport would have way more free slots because there would be many routes that got cut.

This would led to airlines using smaller aircraft for frequency because they got soo many excess slots.


There aren't that many slot-restricted major airports. Carriers could have been using smaller aircraft to most major airports all along. That's was the fundamental misunderstanding behind the A380 - the belief that capacity constraints would drive larger aircraft.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:37 pm

Is the word "launch" here mean something like "Boeing launching the 797 projects" instead of the launch of actual aircraft?
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:46 am

LCDFlight wrote:
The justification to bring in a VLA fleet with such narrow window of usability is just impossible now. Not "hard" but actually impossible.

Huh?? Several airlines have clarified their intent to still take VLAs. Some in reduced number, but hardly "impossible." :roll:



dtw2hyd wrote:
Sherlock realized now? If he predicted a decade back he would have been a visionary.

At the minimum there should have been a plan B which EK completely lacks.

:checkmark: :checkmark:

^This. Granted, it took a bit longer than some of us would've thought; but anyone with sense had to realize that a major day of reckoning was eventually coming for EK's utterly ridiculous fleet plan.

This is the first major downturn they've faced with their fleet as it is (they didn't have anywhere near the relative composition of 77Ws and A380s back in 2009), and it just so happens to be the worst in history.

Yet their only recourse plan (for if the bottom fell out of the Dubai or world markets) while in possession of hundreds of inflexibly-large aircraft, appears to be -- nothing.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:42 am

As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:31 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Aither wrote:
A smaller market does not mean smaller widebody aircraft.
A smaller market means less routes, less frequencies and more focus on the top markets.

I believe what will suffer the most are the so called point to point routes or routes with little connecting traffic. Typically routes promoted by Boeing as the "787 routes". I fear many wont come back before years and if they do and are within the A321 XLR range then they could restart with the A321XLR.

I also believe the hub to hub routes like SIN to LHR etc should remain operated by large widebody however as they will benefit from the traffic which can no longer fly point to point and maybe less Airlines on the routes. Also there should be less emphasis on frequencies as business traffic will be slow to recover.

All in all it should not be a surprise if we observe less but on average larger widebody being used on the long haut markets .


Actually it does mean smaller aircraft. Think about it. Many major routes would be back and running again, but unlike before, many major airport would have way more free slots because there would be many routes that got cut.

This would led to airlines using smaller aircraft for frequency because they got soo many excess slots.


There aren't that many slot-restricted major airports. Carriers could have been using smaller aircraft to most major airports all along. That's was the fundamental misunderstanding behind the A380 - the belief that capacity constraints would drive larger aircraft.


There aren't many, that's true, but the one that have those problems tend to be the major airport than many airlines wanted to fly to because of high premium demand. LHR, SYD, NRT, HND, JFK, LAX, SFO, FRA, etc.

In the future there would be expansion and such improvements would reduces the need for VLA. But for now, aircraft the size of B777-300ER would still be flying. Not sure about anything bigger though.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:35 am

DocLightning wrote:
As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.


I'd say that Airbus would be in better position to developed such aircraft. Their A330neo is drying up in recent months because of the pandemic. They would need to think about its replacement in 2025 at least.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:40 am

ewt340 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.


I'd say that Airbus would be in better position to developed such aircraft. Their A330neo is drying up in recent months because of the pandemic. They would need to think about its replacement in 2025 at least.

Airbus is in a better position to think about new programs in general. Boeing is going to spend most of this decade getting their house in order, I think we can all agree on that. And I think they will. They need to restore stability on the MAX program and then focus on speeding up and marketing the 777X program when the time is right.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:40 am

DocLightning wrote:
As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.

Could the 763 sized hole be filled with a stretched A321 XLR?

More passengers and likely more fuel tank space that way, sort of an Airbus take on what Boeing did with the 757-300.
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JonesNL
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:45 am

TheWorm123 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.

Could the 763 sized hole be filled with a stretched A321 XLR?

More passengers and likely more fuel tank space that way, sort of an Airbus take on what Boeing did with the 757-300.


That's the fabeled A322, which has been discussed to no end. It should have less range than the 763 but similar pax capacity.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:48 am

ewt340 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.


I'd say that Airbus would be in better position to developed such aircraft. Their A330neo is drying up in recent months because of the pandemic. They would need to think about its replacement in 2025 at least.

I don't think there are enough room between A321 and A359 to support a new widebody design, just as 797 couldn't be launched as a widebody
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:23 am

Vicenza wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Sherlock realized now? If he predicted a decade back he would have been a visionary. If he predicted 5 years back he can be considered a good planner. Now anybody can tell.

There is no way anyone could have predicted current situation is a just an excuse. At the minimum there should have been a plan B which EK completely lacks.


So enlighten me as to what Plan B did any other airline, and yourself have. I'll be very interested because I sure haven't seen any.


Others already have Plan B, they are called narrow body aircraft, others also have smaller wide body aircraft. One need not be a rocket scientist to figure out that having mixed fleet is the best way to run an airline.
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:09 pm

I have to agree with statements above: For the moment nobody will order or develop anything. So "no new widebodies" is not much of a genius prediction as we already have the newly developed 787 and A350 families on the market.
On the medium run I'd say it's not unlikely that A and B will invent new widebodies like the reconfigured NMA and some A310/A330-follow on. There is room between the big twins above and the biggest narrowbodies. Especially now that the big quad capacity is gone for maybe forever.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:31 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Sherlock realized now? If he predicted a decade back he would have been a visionary. If he predicted 5 years back he can be considered a good planner. Now anybody can tell.

There is no way anyone could have predicted current situation is a just an excuse. At the minimum there should have been a plan B which EK completely lacks.


So enlighten me as to what Plan B did any other airline, and yourself have. I'll be very interested because I sure haven't seen any.


Others already have Plan B, they are called narrow body aircraft, others also have smaller wide body aircraft. One need not be a rocket scientist to figure out that having mixed fleet is the best way to run an airline.


Interesting. We are seeing on these pages the dire straights of the industry and suddenly you are claiming all airlines have a plan B except Emirates because they have different aircraft types. Emirates geographical position leads to a different model, and even a rocket scientist knows that an airline has to be run depending on it's particular model, and which fitted Emirates perfectly. Now you're claiming, in the face of a worldwide pandemic which could never have been predicted, that they 'lack' a plan B. I don't think so at all, and I still don't see a plan B from others regarding their recovery, unless your plan B seems to only relate to aircraft type.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
Now the industry is still coasting on financing secured before CV19 and it's clear the financial community is going to be taking some major hits as many of their assumptions about asset value are now incorrect so new financing will be very challenging.


I'd questioning if financing would really be that unavailable - there's still more money to invest than there are investment opportunities, and every bit of central bank money pumping into the economy is increasing it. So whilst many groups will have been seriously hurt on past investments, that's a sunk loss, irrelevant to the decision to invest new.

Of course that doesn't mean there's opportunity for new aircraft purchases as there's still the problem of used being available which will reduce the possible prices for new, possibly to below even a cost where it's worthwhile ticking along producing them for the future opportunities, but I don't think we should assume financing is gone, there's a real shortage of returns out there anywhere and a lot of cash sloshing about.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:03 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Sherlock realized now? If he predicted a decade back he would have been a visionary. If he predicted 5 years back he can be considered a good planner. Now anybody can tell.

There is no way anyone could have predicted current situation is a just an excuse. At the minimum there should have been a plan B which EK completely lacks.


So enlighten me as to what Plan B did any other airline, and yourself have. I'll be very interested because I sure haven't seen any.


Others already have Plan B, they are called narrow body aircraft, others also have smaller wide body aircraft. One need not be a rocket scientist to figure out that having mixed fleet is the best way to run an airline.


Remind us how the B-plan is working for Air Asia?

Or Indgo?

Air X Asia?

Your logic making no sense.
 
Dirigible
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:54 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Vicenza wrote:

So enlighten me as to what Plan B did any other airline, and yourself have. I'll be very interested because I sure haven't seen any.


Others already have Plan B, they are called narrow body aircraft, others also have smaller wide body aircraft. One need not be a rocket scientist to figure out that having mixed fleet is the best way to run an airline.


STC has no credibility left. His lack of plan B is gross mismanagement. (I see no relevance in the post of FPE about the LCCs he mentions).
 
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A300neo
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:47 pm

2175301 wrote:
The 767-400 Freighter using updated engines (787/747 engines) will almost certainly be launched as the existing 767F does not meet the IACO 2028 standards for "In Production Aircraft." However, that will take a few years. I don't expect to see it launched before 2025.

I don't see how a 767-400 Passenger Aircraft with new engines would be competitive to more recent aircraft. I cannot see it being launched.


Hi,

a 767neo would be highly competitive in Asia. There are a lot of rather short routes less than 3000nm that are now served by 787/A330/777/A350. Granted, these airplanes use the newest lightweight technologies, but they still need a lot of extra structural weight do be able to fly long distances. However if you don't need that it is simply wasted.

The 767 is designed only for medium distances and therefore lighter by design. Even without modern materials the 767-400ER is for example 15t lighter than the B788, however it still offers a few more seats.

With modern engines the fuel consumptions per seat would be comparable, the airport fees would be less due to smaller wings and less MTOW and also the purchase price would be less due to the lack of modern technologies. Furthermore most airports in the US have more gates for cat. D aircrafts.

All in all a modernized 767 is the best Boeing could currently do. The design is well know and tested, the assembly line is still open, all the tools are still there and the GE engines are also reliable and tested on the 787 and 748. The cockpit is also already modernized by the tanker program, so there are no big investments needed. Furthermore, after the 767Max disaster, Boeing need to get back credibility asap. An updated 767 would not be a technological game changer, but a reliable, modern though still affordable work-horse - sth that Boeing would need now imo, to regain lost trust.

Maybe the best part: Airbus doesnt have anything comparable in that segment. They often advertise their A330neo as the upper part of the MoM, but that design is also over weight, the reason why nobody orders the A330-800.

Besides: As you said, Boeing will modernize the 767 anyways because of the freighter program. To certify a passenger version also is not that much more of an effort. I would call it really s....trange, if they would't do it.

regards

A.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:48 pm

But even without covid, this was almost a given?

The 777X is going to be the upper limit of Boeing's WB offering for a while and if Airbus wants to counter it, they're more likely to build an upgraded A350 than a new plane. The medium-sized market is filled by the 787/A330neo/A350, so which new WB was he expecting?
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:31 pm

c933103 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like half the fuel burn.

The last 20 years have been remarkable for commercial aviation with the advent of the 787, the longer-range 777s and then now the 77X, the A380, and the A350.

There are two obvious holes. The first is the gulf between the A321 and the 788. There should be a decent 763 replacement, meaning an aircraft that sits about 220-300 passengers and can fly 12 hours. The second obvious hole is the 737. The 737MAX is a dismal failure and even when they get it certified, it will be stained by the longest ground of any jet airliner. Moreover, the physical design of the 737 precludes LR/XLR variants.

So I think that Boeing needs to work on a 737 replacement and Airbus needs to figure out how to fill the gap between the A321 and the A339.


I'd say that Airbus would be in better position to developed such aircraft. Their A330neo is drying up in recent months because of the pandemic. They would need to think about its replacement in 2025 at least.

I don't think there are enough room between A321 and A359 to support a new widebody design, just as 797 couldn't be launched as a widebody


Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:00 pm

ewt340 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

I'd say that Airbus would be in better position to developed such aircraft. Their A330neo is drying up in recent months because of the pandemic. They would need to think about its replacement in 2025 at least.

I don't think there are enough room between A321 and A359 to support a new widebody design, just as 797 couldn't be launched as a widebody


Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.


Conversely, the fact that Airbus and Boeing have not made a 200-250 seater with 6000 nm range may indicate that they don't think the market is there. Something like the 762ER has been out of production for a long long time and is rarely seen in commercial service anymore - the market had a need for it but it wasn't a particularly large need. Certainly it wasn't a market large enough to justify its own purpose-designed aircraft (particularly at today's R&D costs).

It's why the 737 isn't a good long range aircraft (and will likely never be) - to give it that capability would screw up its performance on the missions it earns its bread and butter on. That's also why A321XLR might be too niche for its own good - it adds cost and weight to a mission that is kind of rare.
 
AlanG1302
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:16 pm

Airbus already sold about 600 XLRs. Do you still consider this too niche?

smithbs wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
I don't think there are enough room between A321 and A359 to support a new widebody design, just as 797 couldn't be launched as a widebody


Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.


Conversely, the fact that Airbus and Boeing have not made a 200-250 seater with 6000 nm range may indicate that they don't think the market is there. Something like the 762ER has been out of production for a long long time and is rarely seen in commercial service anymore - the market had a need for it but it wasn't a particularly large need. Certainly it wasn't a market large enough to justify its own purpose-designed aircraft (particularly at today's R&D costs).

It's why the 737 isn't a good long range aircraft (and will likely never be) - to give it that capability would screw up its performance on the missions it earns its bread and butter on. That's also why A321XLR might be too niche for its own good - it adds cost and weight to a mission that is kind of rare.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
cpd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm going to disagree. In the industry, we look for step changes in efficiency. That would be the Blended Wing Body (BwB). It has huge structural efficiency advantages and some aerodynamic advantages. I participated in studies that I believe have cleared the evacuation issues. The BwB efficiency grows with scale more than a cigar with wings.

The VLA requires a significant efficiency advantage due to the risk of not filling seats (likely to be realized).

Eventually we will have another VLA. (Never say never) Certainly not in the near term.

Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.

Lightsaber


A blended wing body aircraft has about as much chance of occurring in the next 20 years as the Handley Page skewed wing SST did of becoming reality.

With only two major aircraft makers, they can just put on the brakes for development and do as little as possible. Minor improvements and changes, little more. Nothing risky.

That will be safest. I suspect an SST might be a possibility down the track with variable cycle engines, but it’s surely a long way off and it probably won’t be in the remainder of my lifetime.

This pandemic still isn’t defeated yet either.

SST is so costly, it will only be for limited passenger payloads. We'll have to see how those go in this downturn.

I don't expect a BwB soon, but the basic efficiency is there. Everyone is trying to bring that efficiency. As you note, there are only two vendors who will, like all near monopolies, restrain development. There is always development of those thinking of re-entering the civil market. Businesses are always looking for opportunities.

But with the Boeing BwB x-48, Northrop UCAS, B-21 Raider, and Airbus MAVERIC (I know, small), research continues.
The reality is supersonic transport requires 1st class and higher pricing to move people that quickly.

If you want to cut the cost of air travel, the BwB is a fairly mature technology. The issue, is the efficiency is a *huge* function of scale. The gains really only start for a 250 seater. As environmental concerns grow, there will be a need for a step function reduction in fuel burn. The BwB is one of the few step functions waiting to be implemented now that GTFs are flying, variable cycle in engines has started (just started), and the first bit of CMCs will on the 779.

I worked a little consulting on the Sonic Cruiser very early in my carrier. I was appalled at the sharp increase in fuel burn. For Supersonic flight, that is far worse.

But for the next few years, this is idle discussion.

Lightsaber


At the risk of going to technical discussion, was the Sonic Cruiser going fast enough to take advantage of the benefits of high speed flight? I think not, it was just below Mach 1.0 wasn’t it, and with more conventional engines? So no variable inlets, etc. it just seemed like a poor idea. The actual proper SST aircraft gain benefits from going M2.0 versus going at below subsonic speed.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:55 pm

AlanG1302 wrote:
Airbus already sold about 600 XLRs. Do you still consider this too niche?

smithbs wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.


Conversely, the fact that Airbus and Boeing have not made a 200-250 seater with 6000 nm range may indicate that they don't think the market is there. Something like the 762ER has been out of production for a long long time and is rarely seen in commercial service anymore - the market had a need for it but it wasn't a particularly large need. Certainly it wasn't a market large enough to justify its own purpose-designed aircraft (particularly at today's R&D costs).

It's why the 737 isn't a good long range aircraft (and will likely never be) - to give it that capability would screw up its performance on the missions it earns its bread and butter on. That's also why A321XLR might be too niche for its own good - it adds cost and weight to a mission that is kind of rare.


I'm having a hard time sorting the Airbus orders. If I see things correctly, A321ceo/neo backlog is at 2,020 units, but it doesn't split out A321XLR, so if your number is correct (source please), then that's about 30% of A321s. For the entire family backlog, XLR is 11%. Maybe it's a bigger niche than I thought, but still a subset of the A321 family alone and a niche in the whole family.
 
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:41 am

AlanG1302 wrote:
Airbus already sold about 600 XLRs. Do you still consider this too niche?

smithbs wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.


Conversely, the fact that Airbus and Boeing have not made a 200-250 seater with 6000 nm range may indicate that they don't think the market is there. Something like the 762ER has been out of production for a long long time and is rarely seen in commercial service anymore - the market had a need for it but it wasn't a particularly large need. Certainly it wasn't a market large enough to justify its own purpose-designed aircraft (particularly at today's R&D costs).

It's why the 737 isn't a good long range aircraft (and will likely never be) - to give it that capability would screw up its performance on the missions it earns its bread and butter on. That's also why A321XLR might be too niche for its own good - it adds cost and weight to a mission that is kind of rare.

The XLR is not widebody.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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ewt340
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:00 am

smithbs wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
I don't think there are enough room between A321 and A359 to support a new widebody design, just as 797 couldn't be launched as a widebody


Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.


Conversely, the fact that Airbus and Boeing have not made a 200-250 seater with 6000 nm range may indicate that they don't think the market is there. Something like the 762ER has been out of production for a long long time and is rarely seen in commercial service anymore - the market had a need for it but it wasn't a particularly large need. Certainly it wasn't a market large enough to justify its own purpose-designed aircraft (particularly at today's R&D costs).

It's why the 737 isn't a good long range aircraft (and will likely never be) - to give it that capability would screw up its performance on the missions it earns its bread and butter on. That's also why A321XLR might be too niche for its own good - it adds cost and weight to a mission that is kind of rare.


Well they actually have A330-200 and A330-800neo which seats 240-260 seats. But it got too much range and capability that aircraft this size doesn't actually need.

So far we know B767-300ER is extremely successful with some airlines still operating it today. There is a proven market for such aircraft.

Airbus also have a big gap between A321XLR and A350-900. Unless they want to give all the market to Boeing, they have to counter with something.
Obviously designing a new aircraft to go head to head with B787 would be a suicide. So they have to focus on medium-haul market instead.
 
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c933103
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Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:11 am

ewt340 wrote:
smithbs wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Surely a 200-250 seater with range around ~6,000nmi would be useful since Both Airbus and Boeing doesn't offer one.

B797 is too small and compete with A321XLR and it doesn't have enough range and capability to replace B767-300ER. It's a lose-lose design.


Conversely, the fact that Airbus and Boeing have not made a 200-250 seater with 6000 nm range may indicate that they don't think the market is there. Something like the 762ER has been out of production for a long long time and is rarely seen in commercial service anymore - the market had a need for it but it wasn't a particularly large need. Certainly it wasn't a market large enough to justify its own purpose-designed aircraft (particularly at today's R&D costs).

It's why the 737 isn't a good long range aircraft (and will likely never be) - to give it that capability would screw up its performance on the missions it earns its bread and butter on. That's also why A321XLR might be too niche for its own good - it adds cost and weight to a mission that is kind of rare.


Well they actually have A330-200 and A330-800neo which seats 240-260 seats. But it got too much range and capability that aircraft this size doesn't actually need.

So far we know B767-300ER is extremely successful with some airlines still operating it today. There is a proven market for such aircraft.

Airbus also have a big gap between A321XLR and A350-900. Unless they want to give all the market to Boeing, they have to counter with something.
Obviously designing a new aircraft to go head to head with B787 would be a suicide. So they have to focus on medium-haul market instead.

I guess it would cost them considerably less to develop A322 instead of a whole new aircraft family
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:30 pm

Emirates is offering unpaid leave till November to avoid further layoffs.

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020 ... undancies/
 
chonetsao
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:16 pm

Following the new requirement of Covid-19 PCR test within 96 hours of arriving of transiting in UAE, it is for sure Emirates would suffer even further in passenger loads. I can see how Emirates would end up retire 40% of their A380 by end of 2020. The recovery is not anywhere in sight.
 
KingOrGod
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:15 am

zeke wrote:

Even after being terminated don’t they go into 25% basic pay, free health care and accommodation until they leave the country ?

That’s the UAE sponsorship visa conditions isn’t it ?.


I worked in a rich neighbouring emirate, and some time ago (before corona) when my contract was summarily terminated, they didn't even give me the agreed notice period. They terminated my visa and I had 8 days to sell up and leave otherwise face arrest. They play their own game there and one should realise they have no conscience with a lot of stuff. Play with fire, get burned. It's the ME all over. No ethics.
 
Western727
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:18 pm

Having had my family's trip to DXB (nonstop from IAH on a 380) postponed from mid-March, literally days prior to the trip, to 20-29 November I find myself doubting that we'll be able to visit my expat sister and her family who live in AUH. The way things look, it looks more and more likely that we'll have to postpone again to spring break in March 2021...not to mention lamenting the fact that my likely only chance of flying on the 380 may evaporate.

Love to entertain an educated guess from you folks on that.

KingOrGod wrote:
zeke wrote:

Even after being terminated don’t they go into 25% basic pay, free health care and accommodation until they leave the country ?

That’s the UAE sponsorship visa conditions isn’t it ?.


I worked in a rich neighbouring emirate, and some time ago (before corona) when my contract was summarily terminated, they didn't even give me the agreed notice period. They terminated my visa and I had 8 days to sell up and leave otherwise face arrest. They play their own game there and one should realise they have no conscience with a lot of stuff. Play with fire, get burned. It's the ME all over. No ethics.


My brother-in-law got a high-paying administrative job at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant and has since gotten reorganized to the utility's HQ in AUH. I do wonder what might happen to him should the utility decide to terminate his contract. 8 days is quite a short notice to move a family of 6.

EDIT: clarification.
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lalib
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:05 pm

KingOrGod wrote:
zeke wrote:

Even after being terminated don’t they go into 25% basic pay, free health care and accommodation until they leave the country ?

That’s the UAE sponsorship visa conditions isn’t it ?.


I worked in a rich neighbouring emirate, and some time ago (before corona) when my contract was summarily terminated, they didn't even give me the agreed notice period. They terminated my visa and I had 8 days to sell up and leave otherwise face arrest. They play their own game there and one should realise they have no conscience with a lot of stuff. Play with fire, get burned. It's the ME all over. No ethics.


Doesn't happen with all companies and they are not that unreasonable. I worked for EY for 2 years plus. I got made redundant in 2017. They were lenient before canceling my visa as I was scrambling to find another job. Once I found something after 3 - 4 months I asked them to cancel it and it was done.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.

Really, 309 orders are not a good degree of acceptance before EIS? For a point of comparison, A380 had 177 pax orders at EIS ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries ) and that included the dubious Kingfisher and Virgin orders. It was also a clean sheet with a much bigger spend than 777x has, and where Airbus had the freedom to target any market segment they wanted since they had a blank check. Therefore I feel my statement is quite justified.


My point was that the real backlog is much smaller than 309 aircraft when you remove the shaky orders. The A380 got nothing to do with it.

I think my comment should be read in the full context which I included above. If you were expecting 777x to have order books the size of 787 or A350 before EIS, then IMO you have unrealistic expectations.


You should read the 777x threads on a.net from 2013, when the jet was launched. Many people predicted 600+ orders before EIS.
Good moaning!
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:36 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.

Really, 309 orders are not a good degree of acceptance before EIS? For a point of comparison, A380 had 177 pax orders at EIS ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries ) and that included the dubious Kingfisher and Virgin orders. It was also a clean sheet with a much bigger spend than 777x has, and where Airbus had the freedom to target any market segment they wanted since they had a blank check. Therefore I feel my statement is quite justified.


My point was that the real backlog is much smaller than 309 aircraft when you remove the shaky orders. The A380 got nothing to do with it.

I think my comment should be read in the full context which I included above. If you were expecting 777x to have order books the size of 787 or A350 before EIS, then IMO you have unrealistic expectations.


You should read the 777x threads on a.net from 2013, when the jet was launched. Many people predicted 600+ orders before EIS.

We can agree the 777x needs more orders. In the mid-term, I expect Boeing to try to sell 777xFs. I'm starting to get scared on freight demand due to economic concerns.

Fans predicting orders has nothing to do with a business case.

EK must down size. That means fewer 779. The 778 business case is extra precarious.

But this is an EK thread, not 779 vs. A388.

Due to far more technology advance in the 779, I see a good future at EK. The trick is getting to say 2025.

Lightsaber
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ewt340
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Really, 309 orders are not a good degree of acceptance before EIS? For a point of comparison, A380 had 177 pax orders at EIS ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries ) and that included the dubious Kingfisher and Virgin orders. It was also a clean sheet with a much bigger spend than 777x has, and where Airbus had the freedom to target any market segment they wanted since they had a blank check. Therefore I feel my statement is quite justified.


My point was that the real backlog is much smaller than 309 aircraft when you remove the shaky orders. The A380 got nothing to do with it.

I think my comment should be read in the full context which I included above. If you were expecting 777x to have order books the size of 787 or A350 before EIS, then IMO you have unrealistic expectations.


You should read the 777x threads on a.net from 2013, when the jet was launched. Many people predicted 600+ orders before EIS.

We can agree the 777x needs more orders. In the mid-term, I expect Boeing to try to sell 777xFs. I'm starting to get scared on freight demand due to economic concerns.

Fans predicting orders has nothing to do with a business case.

EK must down size. That means fewer 779. The 778 business case is extra precarious.

But this is an EK thread, not 779 vs. A388.

Due to far more technology advance in the 779, I see a good future at EK. The trick is getting to say 2025.

Lightsaber


I don't think they would push for B777XF. Their original B777F program are still pretty young. they also recently have conversion program for other B777 model.

Interestingly enough, I just found out that they still have 18 B777-300ER on backlog. Which is mind blowing.
 
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scbriml
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Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:25 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Interestingly enough, I just found out that they still have 18 B777-300ER on backlog. Which is mind blowing.


Where did you find that? I believe it's incorrect. They have 115 x 777X and 30 x 787 outstanding with Boeing. Their last few 77Ws were cancelled as part of their order switch from 777s to 787s.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1272
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:54 am

scbriml wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Interestingly enough, I just found out that they still have 18 B777-300ER on backlog. Which is mind blowing.


Where did you find that? I believe it's incorrect. They have 115 x 777X and 30 x 787 outstanding with Boeing. Their last few 77Ws were cancelled as part of their order switch from 777s to 787s.


Sorry, not Emirates per say. There are still 18 B777-300ER on order on Boeing's backlog.

Which is pretty interesting how many B777-300ER are extremely young.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:42 pm

At this point I am thinking that Boeing would make more money selling 787s instead of 777X to the same airlines but as they have already bet on this horse its a bit late.
 
StTim
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:03 pm

I agree the 777x is looking increasingly the wrong plane at the wrong time.

It will continue to burn money for years to come, if it is ever profitable.

Boeing is in a world of hurt at the moment with 737Max and Covid. The only really profitable plane they currently have is the 767 - who would have thought that.

It is also certainly not rosy at Airbus but I think they are in a better place and will also support their suppliers better.
 
Opus99
Posts: 979
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:14 pm

StTim wrote:
I agree the 777x is looking increasingly the wrong plane at the wrong time.

It will continue to burn money for years to come, if it is ever profitable.

Boeing is in a world of hurt at the moment with 737Max and Covid. The only really profitable plane they currently have is the 767 - who would have thought that.

It is also certainly not rosy at Airbus but I think they are in a better place and will also support their suppliers better.

767? I think you mean 787!
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 2717
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:
StTim wrote:
I agree the 777x is looking increasingly the wrong plane at the wrong time.

It will continue to burn money for years to come, if it is ever profitable.

Boeing is in a world of hurt at the moment with 737Max and Covid. The only really profitable plane they currently have is the 767 - who would have thought that.

It is also certainly not rosy at Airbus but I think they are in a better place and will also support their suppliers better.

767? I think you mean 787!


I think he is referring to the deferred costs issue the 787 has. The 787 does generate cash however, which will be important for Boeing. They really need to get the MAX back and flying, if only to deliver what they have already built.
 
StTim
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:32 pm

I doubt the 787 is making money at current production rates.
 
xwb777
Posts: 860
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Emirates drops FLL

Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:17 pm

In the airline’s latest schedule updates, it has been revealed that FLL will be permenantly dropped. The route was previously set to resume on 02SEP2020 with 4 weekly flights served by the B777-200LR

Source: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-04aug20/


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Blerg
Posts: 4071
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Emirates drops FLL

Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:18 pm

I think I read on here that this was one of their weaker routes. Anyone know more on this?

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