lightsaber wrote:Basically, we already know the NMA is delayed. But development won't stop. Only half of new technology can be retrofitted to an existing design. So eventually we will develop new widebodies. But not in the near term.
The problem is that we now need to redefine near term, it's hard to use the term without a redefinition.
Even before CV19 the press was talking about the airliner bubble. Even before CV19 RR was losing money due to the cost of T1000 rework and compensation. Even before CV19, GE was restructuring at the corporate level. Even before CV19, PW was struggling with GTF "durability" issues. Even before CV19, Boeing was up to its eyeballs in red ink due to MCAS and had stood down NMA. Now with CV19 the entire revenue stream of the entire industry has taken a ~80% hit and no one can predict the recovery timeline. Now the industry is still coasting on financing secured before CV19 and it's clear the financial community is going to be taking some major hits as many of their assumptions about asset value are now incorrect so new financing will be very challenging. The world's largest economy is now entering Wave 1b of CV19.
I think all the major players had just made huge investments before CV19 and will be very reluctant to make huge investments after CV19 until their old investments are paying off, and I think that will take longer than most people think.