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CobaltScar
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 5:50 pm

The crowds I see at Universal citywalk and various central Florida downtowns disagree. Sure it will take time to ramp back up, but we are not going backwards again with these silly kabuki theater "lock downs".
 
williaminsd
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 6:05 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:

Really depends on stopping the spread of the virus. If we have a second wave it may not be the bottom.



People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.


People care a lot about a second wave. States reopening are seeing the infection rate tick up. You personally may be done and will revolt at a second lockdown, but not everyone agrees. Sometimes being young and stupid just makes life worse for those of us who take this a little less cavalierly.


Please cite sources for your claims, especially if you're going to call people "young and stupid." In Florida, which is rapidly re-opening, the rate has not only gone down, but significantly so. Three weeks ago, during the week of April 18-24, Florida reported an average of 825.7 new cornavirus daily, and 45.7 deaths daily. For the week of May 9-15, the average daily number of new cases was 644.7 — a 22% reduction — and the average daily number of COVID-19 deaths was 31.7, a reduction of 31%. Florida’s per-capita death rate from the virus is still 94% lower than New York’s, which remains in total lockdown.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/

And also please put in context your claim of rates "tick(ing) up." Most of the increase being shown is due to increased testing, unless you have evidence to the contrary.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coro ... row-2020-3

There will be a second wave, that's how viruses work. Please stay home if concerned. Don't try to force your fear on me...

Back to topic: We have reached bottom and those not easily bullied or swayed by media-driven panic are returning to the skies and refusing to let the aviation industry die...
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 6:05 pm

laxmia wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:


People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.


People care a lot about a second wave. States reopening are seeing the infection rate tick up. You personally may be done and will revolt at a second lockdown, but not everyone agrees. Sometimes being young and stupid just makes life worse for those of us who take this a little less cavalierly.


Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 6:16 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
avi8 wrote:
I know this is a matter of opinion, but do y’all think we have already hit the bottom already in terms of the aviation industry and the coronavirus?


Really depends on stopping the spread of the virus. If we have a second wave it may not be the bottom.



People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.

This is out of touch with reality. You may have surrounded yourself with people who think that way, but the vast majority don't. A second wave, whether accompanied by new lock downs or not will pit the nails in the airline industry's coffin. Confidence is the safety of travel will take many years to rebound from a second wave.

Most people have learned how effective lockdowns are from the last time this happened, and from the international examples we have from this time. Anyone who cares about the airline industry (and the economy in general) should be advocating against premature reopening
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 6:19 pm

enilria wrote:
Quieter this week, but we know Delta finished their long term plan this week. First bits are falling out. Much more to come I bet. UA and AA will be next. Lots of stations will be closed permanently.


So DL appears to be pulling out of Saskatoon. They pulled out of Regina about 3 years ago. So no more DL in Saskatchewan. Those were NW strongholds back in the day.

The other thing that stood out to me is AA increasing DFW-SRQ.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 6:22 pm

Seat1F wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.

The facts simply don't support your claim. I agree that a very vocal minority is "done" with this virus and doesn't care about its continued spread. However, a clear majority, believe some kind of lockdown measures should continue to be in place as they continue to be concerned about the virus. There is no way we will be at 50% flying capacity in the US by October as some people on here claim. We'll be lucky to be at 25%.


We'll probably be close to 25% next month, with WN operating 50% & AA/B6/AS/G4/F9 I believe all planning on operating around 25-30% of their 2019 schedule.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Sun May 17, 2020 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Seat1F
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:02 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
We'll probably be close to 25% next month, with WN operating 50% & AA/B6/AS/G4/F9 I believe all planning on operating around 25-30% of their 2019 schedule.

Assuming you are referring to the overall US market, I don't buy that at all. I can tell you that my main local airport of DTW will be nowhere near 25-30% capacity in June. Simply not true. UA/AA seem to have about 10-15% of their normal schedule in place for June. DL seems to be at about 15% for June but somewhat higher for July. DTW is a small station for WN so even if they are at 50% it won't affect the overall airport numbers very much.

I can tell you that, in my circle, I don't know a single person that has a plane trip to anywhere scheduled for the foreseeable future. Most folks are being extremely careful when it comes to plane travel. One family friend who flies to FLL about six times a year from DTW, has just driven down there with her SO. They just weren't prepared to take the chance of going by plane.
 
32andBelow
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:09 pm

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
We'll probably be close to 25% next month, with WN operating 50% & AA/B6/AS/G4/F9 I believe all planning on operating around 25-30% of their 2019 schedule.

Assuming you are referring to the overall US market, I don't buy that at all. I can tell you that my main local airport of DTW will be nowhere near 25-30% capacity in June. Simply not true. UA/AA seem to have about 10-15% of their normal schedule in place for June. DL seems to be at about 15% for June but somewhat higher for July. DTW is a small station for WN so even if they are at 50% it won't affect the overall airport numbers very much.

I can tell you that, in my circle, I don't know a single person that has a plane trip to anywhere scheduled for the foreseeable future. Most folks are being extremely careful when it comes to plane travel. One family friend who flies to FLL about six times a year from DTW, has just driven down there with her SO. They just weren't prepared to take the chance of going by plane.

Weird I know tons of people with trips planned for July and august.
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:13 pm

enilria wrote:
Westerwaelder wrote:
IB schedule is quite remarkable. Cutting MAD for BCN on BOS and SFO. Is this to signal to Norwegian that they are determined to defend their turf?

That plus everybody chasing the same few leisure passengers while business is dead.



The chances of those routes actually starting in late June - and they are LEVEL routes - are pretty close to nil.
a.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:22 pm

I had heard that Canada wants to keep the US/Canada border closed to non-essential travel through 6/15/2020. So it doesn't surprise me that SEA-Canada routes are still zero in June.
 
aaway
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:30 pm

laxmia wrote:
Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


I know my sample size is small. The area I reside in is near the coast and has several hotels nearby. Youngsters in my area (Gen X, millennials) have been using Instagram, Snap, and other social media platforms to plan pop-up & "underground" events under cover of darkness. I've observed a few large gatherings consisting of nothing but youngsters at area adjacent hotels.

Even before the most stringent measures were taken by government officials of my region, I regularly observed youngsters flaunting the guidelines. Again, (very) small sample. But my observations were that antipathy was greatest among that proportion of the population that sees itself as bullet-proof.

We were all in our 20s at some point.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:30 pm

If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.
 
32andBelow
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 7:33 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.

There’s not going to be a second wave because the first wave isn’t even ending. People are just starting to move on with their lives. Hospitals are getting much better at treating it. And a vaccine is on the way.
 
SCQ83
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:16 pm

Seat1F wrote:
I can tell you that, in my circle, I don't know a single person that has a plane trip to anywhere scheduled for the foreseeable future. Most folks are being extremely careful when it comes to plane travel. One family friend who flies to FLL about six times a year from DTW, has just driven down there with her SO. They just weren't prepared to take the chance of going by plane.


Agree. Most of the trips over the next few weeks will be VFR; people "repositioning" themselves. People who flew out of London or New York and came back to their parents' house in Belfast or St. Louis and now want to go back. Or that are stuck in NYC or London and they can continue teleworking until 2021 and they want to leave the city. Or people heading the second homes in the sun. Or back to their main residence. Or visiting relatives.

I suspect most summer beach trips will be by car like in the old times when flying was somehow a luxury and people drove for whole days (in cars that today would be seen as match boxes). Like that trip from Michigan to South Florida.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.


Agree as well. Ironically I think a 2nd wave will be much more problematic in countries with the most deaths (US, UK, France, Italy and Spain) where many people is unhappy about the government's actions. Many people in those places will not give a toss anymore about what their government tells them since they didn't manage well the 1st wave.
 
Trk1
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:28 pm

Air Travel will be at best at 25% by December.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:30 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
enilria wrote:

Quieter this week, but we know Delta finished their long term plan this week. First bits are falling out. Much more to come I bet. UA and AA will be next. Lots of stations will be closed permanently.


DL's been serving MHT since the 1972 merger with Northeast, in one guise or another IIRC. Can anyone remember if there was a gap in DL/DLC service previously? No sacred cows at this point.

I do note that CAK and PHF are former AirTran focus cities and FNT is probably also teetering.
chonetsao wrote:
LH seems be very confident on US June demand. Many of their flight are still operating while BA had cut its network to minimum. I think even VS is operating quite a bit in June.

IDK about that. They are just pushing the restart 15 days at a time.
32andBelow wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Triple7Lr wrote:

Based on TSA checkpoint numbers I think that’s a fair assessment.

Define “bottom”...
TSA numbers are still below 10% of last year. We need at least 50% to avoid a nightmarish October retrenchment, and I just cannot see that happening now.

They’re current recovering 30% week over week. It doesn’t just get to 50% of normal in a day.

It's down to 15-17% recovery rate the last few days.
Triple7Lr wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Triple7Lr wrote:

Based on TSA checkpoint numbers I think that’s a fair assessment.

Define “bottom”...
TSA numbers are still below 10% of last year. We need at least 50% to avoid a nightmarish October retrenchment, and I just cannot see that happening now.


Agreed I actually brought up the same point on another thread. The numbers are definitely still terrible but no doubt they’re trending in the right direction.

Checkpoint numbers haven’t gone below 100k since 4/22 and hit 250k Friday. The first time it’s been that high in almost 8 weeks. Still a long way to go but progress nonetheless.

We definitely hit bottom. I don't think we will see a spike from the reopenings either, but I think in the Fall when temps go back down and virus season normally starts we will see another wave.
LJ wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
LJ wrote:
Looks like the first sign DL doesn't think ling haul traffic will rebound soon. If they start reducing hub-to-hub, than you know something is wrong with demand.

All the borders are closed. I think domestic is going to rebound this summer with itl waiting for next summer. People prolly going to take vacations closer to home for the next year or more.


I don't think the borders will be closed most of the second half of this year. The borders are opening in Europe. The main issue are the social distancing rules in Europe. I work for a major financial institution and we expect only a 50% occupancy of our office space by the end of the year due to the social distancing rules. Moreover, even when in office, the expectation is that there won't be any to limited face-to-face meetings with colleagues till probably somewhere next year. This means no foreign visitors for some time (and limited to none TATL traffic from our company).

The borders are opening, but they are imposing a 14 day quarantine in UK. Others will follow. That's death for 95% of traffic.
williaminsd wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Define “bottom”...
TSA numbers are still below 10% of last year. We need at least 50% to avoid a nightmarish October retrenchment, and I just cannot see that happening now.


Clearly you don't know what bottom means. It doesn't mean halfway, it doesn't mean partway. It doesn't mean "fully recovered". it means the bottom, the lowest point.

Image
Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1644485092

3.7% of demand was reached around 4/20 - we are at 9.5% - which means, we have touched the bottom. Again, the lowest point. The bottom is the lowest point.

bot·tom
/ˈbädəm/

noun
1.
the lowest point or part of something.
"the bottom of the page"
Opposite:
top

adjective
in the lowest position.
"the books on the bottom shelf"

Opposite:
highest

verb
(of a performance or situation) reach the lowest point before stabilizing or improving.
"interest rates have bottomed out"

I hope this helps you understand what bottom means.


I think you are spot on. The disaster porn hyperbole we are seeing from some here is better left to same bureaucratic clowns who assured us of 2,000,000 Americans dead just a couple of months ago. Anyone know how that prediction turned out?

I can only speak from my own experience, but last week intra-California loads on a 5x/day frequency were coming in at the high 20%. Still brutally low, but more than double from just two weeks ago. I realize this is purely anecdotal, but TSA counts seem to confirm the positive momentum.

Not saying for a minute that we are are anywhere close to returning to "normal," but based on what I'm seeing when I fly now, and the clear demand by those who've gone without paychecks for a couple of months to re-open our economy, there is simply no doubt whatsoever that we've "reached bottom" and are clawing our way back.

50% loads before October is not only possible, but likely...

As I said above, I don't think the reopenings are going to roll back because of a spike this Summer, but I think it is more than 50% likely we see spikes when flu season normally hits in October. We are already seeing that this week in Brazil as they go into Winter.
ZazuPIT wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:

Really depends on stopping the spread of the virus. If we have a second wave it may not be the bottom.



People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.


People care a lot about a second wave. States reopening are seeing the infection rate tick up. You personally may be done and will revolt at a second lockdown, but not everyone agrees. Sometimes being young and stupid just makes life worse for those of us who take this a little less cavalierly.

I think there will be a form of a second lockdown in the Fall unless some breakthrough occurs, but I think it will be ok till then. Similarly, I think the lockdowns should have ended in all but the Northern USA a month ago.
Seat1F wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.

The facts simply don't support your claim. I agree that a very vocal minority is "done" with this virus and doesn't care about its continued spread. However, a clear majority, believe some kind of lockdown measures should continue to be in place as they continue to be concerned about the virus. There is no way we will be at 50% flying capacity in the US by October as some people on here claim. We'll be lucky to be at 25%.

I think the % that are "done" is increasing quickly and I see it across both political parties unlike the image on the news. Having said that, if there is a spike in the Fall (there will be) things will close again.
ZazuPIT wrote:
laxmia wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

People care a lot about a second wave. States reopening are seeing the infection rate tick up. You personally may be done and will revolt at a second lockdown, but not everyone agrees. Sometimes being young and stupid just makes life worse for those of us who take this a little less cavalierly.


Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.

Regarding the "race" aspect. I have to wonder if the fact that the virus is much more dangerous in an urban environment where people live closely together explains a lot of the infection stats by race, since the suburbs and beyond are much less diverse.
CobaltScar wrote:
The crowds I see at Universal citywalk and various central Florida downtowns disagree. Sure it will take time to ramp back up, but we are not going backwards again with these silly kabuki theater "lock downs".

I think it is a lot like TSA. People know TSA is mostly useless, but it is a symbol of "doing something" so everybody just deals with it. A seasonal lockdown may be similar.
williaminsd wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
People are done, they won't care about a second wave and will revolt if governments try to pull another lockdown. Second wave will be old and at risk people stay home, because the rest of the population no longer cares.

The facts simply don't support your claim. I agree that a very vocal minority is "done" with this virus and doesn't care about its continued spread. However, a clear majority, believe some kind of lockdown measures should continue to be in place as they continue to be concerned about the virus. There is no way we will be at 50% flying capacity in the US by October as some people on here claim. We'll be lucky to be at 25%.


Ok Doomer...

I was thinking about all the hate from the young-uns toward Boomers before COVID. "Just die and give us your jobs" I saw a lot. Now you have a disease attempting to do just that and polling says the 20-30 year olds are more fearful than any other age group about COVID when it really is low risk for them compared to the Boomers. All very perverse.
Dominion301 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Quieter this week, but we know Delta finished their long term plan this week. First bits are falling out. Much more to come I bet. UA and AA will be next. Lots of stations will be closed permanently.


So DL appears to be pulling out of Saskatoon. They pulled out of Regina about 3 years ago. So no more DL in Saskatchewan. Those were NW strongholds back in the day.

The other thing that stood out to me is AA increasing DFW-SRQ.

I forgot to put that one in the thread title.
32andBelow wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.

There’s not going to be a second wave because the first wave isn’t even ending. People are just starting to move on with their lives. Hospitals are getting much better at treating it. And a vaccine is on the way.

I hope, but I have zero expectation of a working vaccine in even 2 years.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:32 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
The crowds I see at Universal citywalk and various central Florida downtowns disagree. Sure it will take time to ramp back up, but we are not going backwards again with these silly kabuki theater "lock downs".


Those are all local people right now pretty much all the hotels in Orlando are shut down. That does match what I saw in a national survey people are very excited to get out, go to outside places , dine out , shop driving distance or roadtrips. People are not excited to get on planes.
 
boilerla
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:36 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
The crowds I see at Universal citywalk and various central Florida downtowns disagree. Sure it will take time to ramp back up, but we are not going backwards again with these silly kabuki theater "lock downs".


Those are all local people right now pretty much all the hotels in Orlando are shut down. That does match what I saw in a national survey people are very excited to get out, go to outside places , dine out , shop driving distance or roadtrips. People are not excited to get on planes.

Nor is there much expectation that people will be able to afford to go out and travel. While the states lessening restrictions mean people can go to the beach, it doesn't mean they can drop two grand on a trip to Disney. Unemployment is at record levels, and data seems to indicate that in states that have reopened, jobs are not coming back that quickly. Many economists think some of the jobs may be gone permanently, as companies will use this as an excuse to downsize and cut costs.

Air travel goes with the economy, and neither will be returning to 2019 levels for a while.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:37 pm

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
We'll probably be close to 25% next month, with WN operating 50% & AA/B6/AS/G4/F9 I believe all planning on operating around 25-30% of their 2019 schedule.

Assuming you are referring to the overall US market, I don't buy that at all. I can tell you that my main local airport of DTW will be nowhere near 25-30% capacity in June. Simply not true. UA/AA seem to have about 10-15% of their normal schedule in place for June. DL seems to be at about 15% for June but somewhat higher for July. DTW is a small station for WN so even if they are at 50% it won't affect the overall airport numbers very much.

I can tell you that, in my circle, I don't know a single person that has a plane trip to anywhere scheduled for the foreseeable future. Most folks are being extremely careful when it comes to plane travel. One family friend who flies to FLL about six times a year from DTW, has just driven down there with her SO. They just weren't prepared to take the chance of going by plane.


I'm not sure what you are denying, seating capacity in the domestic US should be close to 25% by end of June, I'm not sure how you can dispute that as it's directly from the mouths of the airlines

WN, 50% https://www.abc15.com/news/business/sou ... nt-in-june
AA, 70% https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKBN22C21W
G4, 70%, https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... ransc.aspx
B6/AS, both were 80% for May, and both have indicated they want to add more flying in for June, so likely closer to 70-75%.

While yes, UA/DL/NK are lower than that 25% number, I think capacity will be in the 20-25% range by the end of next month which is way ahead of your prediction for barely 25% for October.

In May most of the top 50 airports were in the 25% range already, as was DTW

Image

I personally know 5 different people who have flown to Florida in the past few weeks, I have a trip to TPA in a few weeks, it's different for each person. I was looking at hotels as well, and a few of the rooms were sold out where I was looking.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4767
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 8:56 pm

I do think a place like Disney will get visitors but it's gonna be people who can drive there or RVers etc etc. You are not gonna see the 747s coming in packed from the UK or JetBlue operating like 30 packed flights from the northeast etc etc. A reason why Vegas is so worried they see the lack of air travel too . Local casinos could be busier than ever as people don't want to fly but still want to get out and as you stated do cheaper trips. Instead of spending 2k to go to Vegas they will spend $400 at a nearby casino etc etc and just drive there. Volume of plane travel is just gonna take a while to come back. RV rentals are expected to have a large summer. They said the number of people watching converting vans to sleepers is up like 2000% you or something insane , good alternative to staying in hotels and flying two things people look to avoid this summer
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4978
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 9:02 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I do think a place like Disney will get visitors but it's gonna be people who can drive there or RVers etc etc. You are not gonna see the 747s coming in packed from the UK or JetBlue operating like 30 packed flights from the northeast etc etc. A reason why Vegas is so worried they see the lack of air travel too . Local casinos could be busier than ever as people don't want to fly but still want to get out and as you stated do cheaper trips. Instead of spending 2k to go to Vegas they will spend $400 at a nearby casino etc etc and just drive there. Volume of plane travel is just gonna take a while to come back. RV rentals are expected to have a large summer. They said the number of people watching converting vans to sleepers is up like 2000% you or something insane , good alternative to staying in hotels and flying two things people look to avoid this summer

We’ll see. If JetBlue starts offering 29 dollar tickets to Vegas or south beach they might sell a lot. People say all these things till they can get a really good deal. This might be a good event to reset some of the prices at these places. Disneyland/ski resort/vacation package tickets were out of control before all this.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 891
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 9:05 pm

williaminsd wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Define “bottom”...
TSA numbers are still below 10% of last year. We need at least 50% to avoid a nightmarish October retrenchment, and I just cannot see that happening now.


Clearly you don't know what bottom means. It doesn't mean halfway, it doesn't mean partway. It doesn't mean "fully recovered". it means the bottom, the lowest point.

Image
Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1644485092

3.7% of demand was reached around 4/20 - we are at 9.5% - which means, we have touched the bottom. Again, the lowest point. The bottom is the lowest point.

bot·tom
/ˈbädəm/

noun
1.
the lowest point or part of something.
"the bottom of the page"
Opposite:
top

adjective
in the lowest position.
"the books on the bottom shelf"

Opposite:
highest

verb
(of a performance or situation) reach the lowest point before stabilizing or improving.
"interest rates have bottomed out"

I hope this helps you understand what bottom means.


I think you are spot on. The disaster porn hyperbole we are seeing from some here is better left to same bureaucratic clowns who assured us of 2,000,000 Americans dead just a couple of months ago. Anyone know how that prediction turned out?

I can only speak from my own experience, but last week intra-California loads on a 5x/day frequency were coming in at the high 20%. Still brutally low, but more than double from just two weeks ago. I realize this is purely anecdotal, but TSA counts seem to confirm the positive momentum.

Not saying for a minute that we are are anywhere close to returning to "normal," but based on what I'm seeing when I fly now, and the clear demand by those who've gone without paychecks for a couple of months to re-open our economy, there is simply no doubt whatsoever that we've "reached bottom" and are clawing our way back.

50% loads before October is not only possible, but likely...

The previous estimates of a 70% return of traffic levels By October is gone now. The US MAY get back to 1980 domestic travel levels by then, but only with a massive economic spike that isn’t coming. International travel as we have known it is now a thing of the past we will tell our grandchildren about, until BOTH a reliable vaccine, and a reliable testing regime is in place.

The new reality is that airlines are PLANNING for, not speculating on Anet, at LEAST a 50% reduction in flying by October. And that is only if the yields can justify the operation. Meanwhile, 135 flying is exploding. Great time right now to get a few GA jet type ratings, that is where the growth is going to be for the foreseeable future.

International planning has gone from a few weeks, to a few months, to years, to maybe this decade.
That is reality, not speculation.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 9:49 pm

Please refrain from personal attacks. It just isn't necessary.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
babastud
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:38 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 9:59 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
We'll probably be close to 25% next month, with WN operating 50% & AA/B6/AS/G4/F9 I believe all planning on operating around 25-30% of their 2019 schedule.

Assuming you are referring to the overall US market, I don't buy that at all. I can tell you that my main local airport of DTW will be nowhere near 25-30% capacity in June. Simply not true. UA/AA seem to have about 10-15% of their normal schedule in place for June. DL seems to be at about 15% for June but somewhat higher for July. DTW is a small station for WN so even if they are at 50% it won't affect the overall airport numbers very much.

I can tell you that, in my circle, I don't know a single person that has a plane trip to anywhere scheduled for the foreseeable future. Most folks are being extremely careful when it comes to plane travel. One family friend who flies to FLL about six times a year from DTW, has just driven down there with her SO. They just weren't prepared to take the chance of going by plane.

Weird I know tons of people with trips planned for July and august.



There is a lot of pent of demand for flying maybe not in May but yes it's coming late summer for sure. SC is already hopping again with tourism. Granted most are in state or close bye. Tourism travel will be up in running again very very soon. Will it be back to normal no! but it won't be 25%.
 
brilondon
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:04 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
laxmia wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

People care a lot about a second wave. States reopening are seeing the infection rate tick up. You personally may be done and will revolt at a second lockdown, but not everyone agrees. Sometimes being young and stupid just makes life worse for those of us who take this a little less cavalierly.


Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.


This is not going away anytime soon. The stats from the WHO are very telling. Air travel is going to be impacted for at least a year. We won't be getting back to the travelling as before.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:04 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:

Clearly you don't know what bottom means. It doesn't mean halfway, it doesn't mean partway. It doesn't mean "fully recovered". it means the bottom, the lowest point.

Image
Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1644485092

3.7% of demand was reached around 4/20 - we are at 9.5% - which means, we have touched the bottom. Again, the lowest point. The bottom is the lowest point.

bot·tom
/ˈbädəm/

noun
1.
the lowest point or part of something.
"the bottom of the page"
Opposite:
top

adjective
in the lowest position.
"the books on the bottom shelf"

Opposite:
highest

verb
(of a performance or situation) reach the lowest point before stabilizing or improving.
"interest rates have bottomed out"

I hope this helps you understand what bottom means.


I think you are spot on. The disaster porn hyperbole we are seeing from some here is better left to same bureaucratic clowns who assured us of 2,000,000 Americans dead just a couple of months ago. Anyone know how that prediction turned out?

I can only speak from my own experience, but last week intra-California loads on a 5x/day frequency were coming in at the high 20%. Still brutally low, but more than double from just two weeks ago. I realize this is purely anecdotal, but TSA counts seem to confirm the positive momentum.

Not saying for a minute that we are are anywhere close to returning to "normal," but based on what I'm seeing when I fly now, and the clear demand by those who've gone without paychecks for a couple of months to re-open our economy, there is simply no doubt whatsoever that we've "reached bottom" and are clawing our way back.

50% loads before October is not only possible, but likely...

The previous estimates of a 70% return of traffic levels By October is gone now. The US MAY get back to 1980 domestic travel levels by then, but only with a massive economic spike that isn’t coming. International travel as we have known it is now a thing of the past we will tell our grandchildren about, until BOTH a reliable vaccine, and a reliable testing regime is in place.

The new reality is that airlines are PLANNING for, not speculating on Anet, at LEAST a 50% reduction in flying by October. And that is only if the yields can justify the operation. Meanwhile, 135 flying is exploding. Great time right now to get a few GA jet type ratings, that is where the growth is going to be for the foreseeable future.

International planning has gone from a few weeks, to a few months, to years, to maybe this decade.
That is reality, not speculation.


Without evidence, "speculation" is all it is...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6174
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:06 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:

International planning has gone from a few weeks, to a few months, to years, to maybe this decade.
That is reality, not speculation.


You know people have a hard time seeing that the way things are now is not the way they will always be.

When things are good, economy is great, the industry is good, people acted liked it would never change.

Now things are bad and people are having a hard time seeing how it wont always be this way.

Im personally tired of the fear porn that the media keeps peddling. There are a LOT of candidates for treatments and vaccines out there. It would be pretty ridiculous to assume none of them will work. Its pretty clear that there will be a treatment for COVID that can stop it and there will eventually be a vaccine. We dont know when that is true, but this idea that were going to be stuck in this for years or this decade is pretty laughable.

I looked at the top 30 counties in the US for highest spread of COVID. Of the top 30, 22 feel into two categories:

1) outbreak in a prison
2) outbreak in an animal processing facility

The rest were in the NYC area, Ski Resorts, or Southwest Georgia.

Looking at my state (Texas), the numbers are heavily fueled by one area of the state: the Texas Panhandle. The reason is because of the number of meat packing facilities. The big cities have not reported massive spikes in cases due to easing of restrictions as of yet. It may happen, but the hospital capacity numbers still look ok.

This is a serious situation. There is no doubt about that. But this industry will recover. Looking at this weeks OAG, one thing that stuck out to me was IAH-AMS starting back up sooner than UA had originally planned. Demand is slowly trickling back. 2019 levels wont be with us for a couple of years probably, but we will come back.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
chrisair
Posts: 2155
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:13 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
3.7% of demand was reached around 4/20 - we are at 9.5% - which means, we have touched the bottom. Again, the lowest point. The bottom is the lowest point.



Beware of a dead cat bounce...
 
Miamiairport
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Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:27 pm

I’ve been flying the entire time. While most flights are packed again capacity has been massively downsized. Last Friday the AA gates at ORD we’re very crowded (damn ACs still closed). However, what is really missing is the business traveler. Until social distancing and mask wearing becomes a thing of the past business travel isn’t returning and most airlines will continue to bleed billions flying around BE fares. Expect huge number of firings & another request for bailouts. The airlines will cut flights to ensure 90%+ load factors. Social distancing is nothing more than an excuse to shelve in flight services.
 
oosnowrat
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:55 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:29 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
At what point do we see the 50-seaters grounded permanently and those markets that can't sustain service on larger aircraft cut? Or are a certain number of RJs still viable to serve those markets because the price of fuel is so low?


I think CR2s will still be useful. Most are paid for. Only thing cheaper to fly might be paid for Q400s and ATRs. Gotta think a CR2 with 45 pax on board is more profitable than a CR7 with 45 pax on board.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:33 pm

brilondon wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
laxmia wrote:

This is not going away anytime soon. The stats from the WHO are very telling. Air travel is going to be impacted for at least a year. We won't be getting back to the travelling as before.


Yes, I know this is going to be a long recovery. Seems some on here think otherwise. Those are the people who pose a danger to others in their callousness.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:39 pm

I can only speak for AS, but we're seeing very solid increases in daily systemwide LF, and have actually had our contact center agents calling guests on flights that are more heavily booked that we'd like and offering other options if they're uncomfortable being seated next to another passenger. Those willing to move off those select flights are being compensated.

Are the LFs where we'd like them to be? Absolutely not - but when forward booking trends are up, that's a very, very good thing. Hopefully, this continues its upward climb for everyone.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 10:53 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
However, what is really missing is the business traveler. Until social distancing and mask wearing becomes a thing of the past business travel isn’t returning and most airlines will continue to bleed billions flying around BE fares.


And it's not just the perceived health risk, it's the fact that many businesses have and will cut travel expenses for a long time to come. Air travel will be dominated by leisure travel for a while.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 11:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I'm not sure what you are denying, seating capacity in the domestic US should be close to 25% by end of June, I'm not sure how you can dispute that as it's directly from the mouths of the airlines

WN, 50% https://www.abc15.com/news/business/sou ... nt-in-june
AA, 70% https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKBN22C21W
G4, 70%, https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... ransc.aspx
B6/AS, both were 80% for May, and both have indicated they want to add more flying in for June, so likely closer to 70-75%.

While yes, UA/DL/NK are lower than that 25% number, I think capacity will be in the 20-25% range by the end of next month which is way ahead of your prediction for barely 25% for October.


btw B6 is down close to 90% for May in reality when it was all said and down and they've gotten back to down 70% only for second half of June because everyone else has cut back so much in NYC/Boston.

AA I think is flying too much. We will see what they put in for July. I believe June is 80% down domestic and 70% down international.

I think there are some opportunities opening up. If you are not in one of the megahubs, there is a good chance cuts have reduced supply so much that demand is catching up.

I was looking at B6 with JFK/EWR today. There are so many places where there is just no legacy competition at all and should have demand. I'm seeing them running 2/3 of their pre-COVID capacity to DR and PR with no competition at all.

It will be interesting to see what UA/DL does with capacity in fall. If UA continues to cut 85% capacity into the summer and then 75% capacity by late Q4, there are going to be a lot of openings at UA hubs that are left behind. If DL continues to cut 80% capacity into summer and then 65% capacity by late Q4, they are basically giving up BOS/CVG/RDU in the near term and not taking advantage of NYC/LAX openings. And then there is AA who is flying a lot still, but is losing so much cash that I think their insanity will have to stop at some point.

Looking at airlines with strong cash positions like WN, AS, and B6, it will be interesting to see how aggressive they are at expanding into these openings.

WN: What do they do at LAX? Do they try to use this time to expand at SFO? The problem is that AA/UA aren't cutting DFW/IAH/DEN/ORD as much as other hubs.
AS: what do they do at SFO and LAX? The problem is they are facing a lot of capacity at SEA from DL still, but SFO/LAX are both opening up right now.
B6: Complete opening at BOS right now and EWR. Getting luck of draw where legacies have cut like 90% of capacity at NYC/BOS.

I would not be surprised if AS is back to 80% of its pre-COVID scheduled flight at SEA by Q4. B6 might be back to 75% of its scheduled flights at JFK/EWR/BOS by Q4.

I'm beginning to think UA has cut too much in its effort to conserve cash. It's opened things up so much at EWR/SFO.
 
Seat1F
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 11:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I'm not sure what you are denying, seating capacity in the domestic US should be close to 25% by end of June, I'm not sure how you can dispute that as it's directly from the mouths of the airlines

WN, 50% https://www.abc15.com/news/business/sou ... nt-in-june
AA, 70% https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKBN22C21W
G4, 70%, https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... ransc.aspx
B6/AS, both were 80% for May, and both have indicated they want to add more flying in for June, so likely closer to 70-75%.

While yes, UA/DL/NK are lower than that 25% number, I think capacity will be in the 20-25% range by the end of next month which is way ahead of your prediction for barely 25% for October.

In May most of the top 50 airports were in the 25% range already, as was DTW

I personally know 5 different people who have flown to Florida in the past few weeks, I have a trip to TPA in a few weeks, it's different for each person. I was looking at hotels as well, and a few of the rooms were sold out where I was looking.

There is no way DTW is operating at 25% of capacity right now. It simply isn't happening. I have no clue where you got that chart from but it does not represent the reality of what is happening at DTW. We both know that, during these times, many scheduled flights don't even operate. I would be surprised if DTW is operating at 15% normal domestic capacity right now. If you factor in international travel, I bet it's closer to 10-12%. For heaven's sake, AA seems to not be operating any flights to DCA or LGA on many (most?) days. Same for UA to IAH. Flights to other UA/AA hubs have the frequency greatly reduced and the gauge has been downsized in many cases.

I will believe actual operating capacity numbers when I see them. WN and AS are outliers in maintaining more capacity than the others. AS does it in order to protect gate space at SEA and no-one understands what WN is doing.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Sun May 17, 2020 11:13 pm

Wait until the bill for all this comes due in the form of higher personal and corporate taxes and fees. With a 6 to 7 trillion dollar deficit on the Federal level and the possibility of a new less business friendly administration in November. Funny for the first time on Friday, I finally heard a CNBC reporter ask about new taxes to pay for these programs. Couple that with companies adding billions of debt to their balance sheets. Will be interesting times ahead for business travel.
    300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
     
    FlyHossD
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Sun May 17, 2020 11:21 pm

    AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
    And it's not just the perceived health risk, it's the fact that many businesses have and will cut travel expenses for a long time to come. Air travel will be dominated by leisure travel for a while.


    No doubt that some will. At least until their competitors seize the opportunity to do business in the absence of others.
    My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
     
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Sun May 17, 2020 11:29 pm

    tphuang wrote:
    AA I think is flying too much. We will see what they put in for July. I believe June is 80% down domestic and 70% down international.


    AA is keeping their domestic network artificially higher than their peers in hopes of capitalizing on their network allowing more same-day connecting opportunities than the competition; it's not a bad strategy considering their hub structure and the fact that domestic will come back far before international does.
    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

    Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
     
    slcdeltarumd11
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Sun May 17, 2020 11:47 pm

    Everyone is guessing. The only think we know is business travel can't come back short term as most companies have 2020 or more blocked. Leisure travel that is much more debatable and we are all guessing. The average person doesn't seem interested in stepping on a plane but does want to get out and travel. That may or may not convert to airline ticket sales. We will just have to see. I bet no they will do car trips

    No one can predict air travel demand 100% because so much is dependent on the economy and no one see the future on that as this is so unique and crazy.

    I don't think airlines are gonna throw crazy sale fares out soon. It costs too much to park planes and put them back in service, they can't do this again. They are gonna air on the side of caution until Thanksgiving I think then try to push significant numbers back. July and August timetable adjustment just are not in yet the airlines don't waby to issue more refunds so they have not put thru all the cancellations yet. It's for cash flow lots more coming
     
    FlyingElvii
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Sun May 17, 2020 11:56 pm

    AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
    Miamiairport wrote:
    However, what is really missing is the business traveler. Until social distancing and mask wearing becomes a thing of the past business travel isn’t returning and most airlines will continue to bleed billions flying around BE fares.


    And it's not just the perceived health risk, it's the fact that many businesses have and will cut travel expenses for a long time to come. Air travel will be dominated by leisure travel for a while.

    No major conferences, no major events, no sports with crowds, etc, etc...
    This stuff is the backbone of business travel, not going to the beach after being locked in for two months.
     
    tphuang
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 12:03 am

    enilria wrote:

    The borders are opening, but they are imposing a 14 day quarantine in UK. Others will follow. That's death for 95% of traffic.

    Totally agreed. And as I said, it's killing a lot of these coastal legacy hubs dependent on international traffic.

    Without TATL/TPAC/Deep south America flights from EWR, UA has to dramatically cut back on its shorter flights that feed them. That has like a cascading affect on the strength of their hubs. At least that's what I'm seeing from looking at EWR. And same with JFK for DL, MIA for AA and SFO for UA. I would imagine even ATL is affected by having to cut these Latin American flights.

    Huge opportunity for LCCs.

    As I said above, I don't think the reopenings are going to roll back because of a spike this Summer, but I think it is more than 50% likely we see spikes when flu season normally hits in October. We are already seeing that this week in Brazil as they go into Winter.

    I think there will be a form of a second lockdown in the Fall unless some breakthrough occurs, but I think it will be ok till then. Similarly, I think the lockdowns should have ended in all but the Northern USA a month ago.

    Regarding the "race" aspect. I have to wonder if the fact that the virus is much more dangerous in an urban environment where people live closely together explains a lot of the infection stats by race, since the suburbs and beyond are much less diverse.

    about the second wave. I think it will affect areas like NY less next time, because so many people already got infected from first time. The infection rate in NYC is over 20% and much higher in a lot of the ethnic working class communities that can't work from home. They get their antibody tests and voila. They can work and fly if they want. And you will hit herd immunity a lot sooner in these communities. When NY opens up again, that infection with keep climbing, but it won't be as bad as this first wave.

    For places where first wave wasn't bad, I think flu season could make things even worse. And that be the sun belt state that hasn't had it as long.

    I hope, but I have zero expectation of a working vaccine in even 2 years.

    Totally agreed that it will take longer than people are estimating. If they find vaccine to this, it will be the first ever vaccine for coronavirus. We will see, best case scenario is mass production by second half of 2021 according to Scott Gottlieb.
     
    FlyingElvii
    Posts: 891
    Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 12:06 am

    tphuang wrote:
    Midwestindy wrote:
    I'm not sure what you are denying, seating capacity in the domestic US should be close to 25% by end of June, I'm not sure how you can dispute that as it's directly from the mouths of the airlines

    WN, 50% https://www.abc15.com/news/business/sou ... nt-in-june
    AA, 70% https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKBN22C21W
    G4, 70%, https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... ransc.aspx
    B6/AS, both were 80% for May, and both have indicated they want to add more flying in for June, so likely closer to 70-75%.

    While yes, UA/DL/NK are lower than that 25% number, I think capacity will be in the 20-25% range by the end of next month which is way ahead of your prediction for barely 25% for October.


    btw B6 is down close to 90% for May in reality when it was all said and down and they've gotten back to down 70% only for second half of June because everyone else has cut back so much in NYC/Boston.

    AA I think is flying too much. We will see what they put in for July. I believe June is 80% down domestic and 70% down international.

    I think there are some opportunities opening up. If you are not in one of the megahubs, there is a good chance cuts have reduced supply so much that demand is catching up.

    I was looking at B6 with JFK/EWR today. There are so many places where there is just no legacy competition at all and should have demand. I'm seeing them running 2/3 of their pre-COVID capacity to DR and PR with no competition at all.

    It will be interesting to see what UA/DL does with capacity in fall. If UA continues to cut 85% capacity into the summer and then 75% capacity by late Q4, there are going to be a lot of openings at UA hubs that are left behind. If DL continues to cut 80% capacity into summer and then 65% capacity by late Q4, they are basically giving up BOS/CVG/RDU in the near term and not taking advantage of NYC/LAX openings. And then there is AA who is flying a lot still, but is losing so much cash that I think their insanity will have to stop at some point.

    Looking at airlines with strong cash positions like WN, AS, and B6, it will be interesting to see how aggressive they are at expanding into these openings.

    WN: What do they do at LAX? Do they try to use this time to expand at SFO? The problem is that AA/UA aren't cutting DFW/IAH/DEN/ORD as much as other hubs.
    AS: what do they do at SFO and LAX? The problem is they are facing a lot of capacity at SEA from DL still, but SFO/LAX are both opening up right now.
    B6: Complete opening at BOS right now and EWR. Getting luck of draw where legacies have cut like 90% of capacity at NYC/BOS.

    I would not be surprised if AS is back to 80% of its pre-COVID scheduled flight at SEA by Q4. B6 might be back to 75% of its scheduled flights at JFK/EWR/BOS by Q4.

    I'm beginning to think UA has cut too much in its effort to conserve cash. It's opened things up so much at EWR/SFO.

    AA is also cancelling a lot.
    UA, as of our Friday Zoom conference, is trying to eliminate most overnights in June. The two banks idea for max connections seems to be working for them at ORD.

    The Big three are trying to also deal with the SCOPE clauses, that keeps them from running a higher percentage of regionals.

    It’s bad out there, folks.
    In both meetings this week, it was doom and gloom, but the phrase “dealing with the harsh reality ahead.” Was repeated several times. Stop looking at every little twitch in the numbers, and start thinking big picture. And that view is looking ugly, through at least next year.
     
    tphuang
    Posts: 5234
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 12:19 am

    EA CO AS wrote:
    tphuang wrote:
    AA I think is flying too much. We will see what they put in for July. I believe June is 80% down domestic and 70% down international.


    AA is keeping their domestic network artificially higher than their peers in hopes of capitalizing on their network allowing more same-day connecting opportunities than the competition; it's not a bad strategy considering their hub structure and the fact that domestic will come back far before international does.

    Aa is losing money at far faster pace than any other legacies and also have the worst cash and debt position. Doug Parker is going to have to either borrow against ff program or file chapter 11. No other source left for aa. If aa is canceling a lot more up close, then that's a scumbag move that will get a lot off ff to abandon them down.

    The c suites at as are probably waiting for aa to hand them a lot of the domestic flying out of West coast.
     
    FlyingElvii
    Posts: 891
    Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 12:40 am

    Meant to say “ It is not doom and gloom”.
     
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    Midwestindy
    Posts: 5298
    Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 12:43 am

    Seat1F wrote:
    Midwestindy wrote:
    I'm not sure what you are denying, seating capacity in the domestic US should be close to 25% by end of June, I'm not sure how you can dispute that as it's directly from the mouths of the airlines

    WN, 50% https://www.abc15.com/news/business/sou ... nt-in-june
    AA, 70% https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKBN22C21W
    G4, 70%, https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... ransc.aspx
    B6/AS, both were 80% for May, and both have indicated they want to add more flying in for June, so likely closer to 70-75%.

    While yes, UA/DL/NK are lower than that 25% number, I think capacity will be in the 20-25% range by the end of next month which is way ahead of your prediction for barely 25% for October.

    In May most of the top 50 airports were in the 25% range already, as was DTW

    I personally know 5 different people who have flown to Florida in the past few weeks, I have a trip to TPA in a few weeks, it's different for each person. I was looking at hotels as well, and a few of the rooms were sold out where I was looking.

    There is no way DTW is operating at 25% of capacity right now. It simply isn't happening. I have no clue where you got that chart from but it does not represent the reality of what is happening at DTW. We both know that, during these times, many scheduled flights don't even operate. I would be surprised if DTW is operating at 15% normal domestic capacity right now. If you factor in international travel, I bet it's closer to 10-12%. For heaven's sake, AA seems to not be operating any flights to DCA or LGA on many (most?) days. Same for UA to IAH. Flights to other UA/AA hubs have the frequency greatly reduced and the gauge has been downsized in many cases.

    I will believe actual operating capacity numbers when I see them. WN and AS are outliers in maintaining more capacity than the others. AS does it in order to protect gate space at SEA and no-one understands what WN is doing.


    Any data to back up any of your claims? You keep denying the facts I'm citing with no evidence but your own beliefs.

    The chart is from the OAG, same place where enrilla gets his report.

    LAXdude1023 wrote:
    FlyingElvii wrote:

    International planning has gone from a few weeks, to a few months, to years, to maybe this decade.
    That is reality, not speculation.


    You know people have a hard time seeing that the way things are now is not the way they will always be.

    When things are good, economy is great, the industry is good, people acted liked it would never change.

    Now things are bad and people are having a hard time seeing how it wont always be this way.


    Agreed, it's going to be a tough couple years, but the aviation industry will recover. I have been reading airline industry reports, and none have indicated a decades long recovery as some on anet are claiming.
    Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
     
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    lightsaber
    Moderator
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 12:58 am

    Please be courteous in posts.

    For total TSA numbers:

    https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

    For the entire USA we are now seeing numbers over 200,000 pax/day. However, that is about 8% of pre-Covid19.

    We have a ways to go.

    Lightsaber
    Winter is coming.
     
    cledaybuck
    Posts: 1715
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    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 1:21 am

    When can we expect to see the July schedule hacked?
    As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
     
    cledaybuck
    Posts: 1715
    Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 1:23 am

    slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
    I do think a place like Disney will get visitors but it's gonna be people who can drive there or RVers etc etc. You are not gonna see the 747s coming in packed from the UK or JetBlue operating like 30 packed flights from the northeast etc etc. A reason why Vegas is so worried they see the lack of air travel too . Local casinos could be busier than ever as people don't want to fly but still want to get out and as you stated do cheaper trips. Instead of spending 2k to go to Vegas they will spend $400 at a nearby casino etc etc and just drive there. Volume of plane travel is just gonna take a while to come back. RV rentals are expected to have a large summer. They said the number of people watching converting vans to sleepers is up like 2000% you or something insane , good alternative to staying in hotels and flying two things people look to avoid this summer

    Why would people be ok with packing themselves with thousands of others at Disney World but be afraid of getting in a plane?
    As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
     
    United1
    Posts: 4164
    Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 1:31 am

    cledaybuck wrote:
    When can we expect to see the July schedule hacked?


    Looks like UA is starting to firm up the end of June so I would assume the revised July schedule will be up in a week or two. UA also put 4 763/753s back into service and looks like they might bring 16 additional aircraft of some type back online.
    I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
     
    laxmia
    Posts: 22
    Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:04 pm

    Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

    Mon May 18, 2020 1:45 am

    ZazuPIT wrote:
    laxmia wrote:
    ZazuPIT wrote:

    People care a lot about a second wave. States reopening are seeing the infection rate tick up. You personally may be done and will revolt at a second lockdown, but not everyone agrees. Sometimes being young and stupid just makes life worse for those of us who take this a little less cavalierly.


    Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


    So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.


    You realize millennials are in the late 30’s now, right? I called out Gen Z as problematic, but if you think Millennials are still going to spring break, you’re a decade too late.

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