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Seat1F
Posts: 148
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 1:56 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Any data to back up any of your claims? You keep denying the facts I'm citing with no evidence but your own beliefs.
s
The chart is from the OAG, same place where enrilla gets his report.

Agreed, it's going to be a tough couple years, but the aviation industry will recover. I have been reading airline industry reports, and none have indicated a decades long recovery as some on anet are claiming.


You know very well that the OAG schedule does not represent actual flown capacity in the current environment and suggesting as such is disingenuous. You are not providing actual capacity "facts". It's a planned schedule that ends up having numerous cancellations/downgauges due to low loads. If you want to put forward actual flown capacity numbers (I don't have that information and I doubt you do either), I'm prepared to discuss that. Otherwise what you're arguing is pretty meaningless.

Who on ANET is claiming a decades long recovery? I certainly haven't seen that. Seems you're exaggerating to me. I certainly see this taking three maybe four years to grow out of.
 
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NWAESC
Posts: 1583
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 1:56 am

They still go; they just go as a family now.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5283
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 2:38 am

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Any data to back up any of your claims? You keep denying the facts I'm citing with no evidence but your own beliefs.
s
The chart is from the OAG, same place where enrilla gets his report.

Agreed, it's going to be a tough couple years, but the aviation industry will recover. I have been reading airline industry reports, and none have indicated a decades long recovery as some on anet are claiming.


You know very well that the OAG schedule does not represent actual flown capacity in the current environment and suggesting as such is disingenuous. You are not providing actual capacity "facts". It's a planned schedule that ends up having numerous cancellations/downgauges due to low loads. If you want to put forward actual flown capacity numbers (I don't have that information and I doubt you do either), I'm prepared to discuss that. Otherwise what you're arguing is pretty meaningless.

Who on ANET is claiming a decades long recovery? I certainly haven't seen that. Seems you're exaggerating to me. I certainly see this taking three maybe four years to grow out of.


How many ways do you want me to slice it up for you?

These are departures, since you say everything is gettting cancelled, as you can see 25% for DTW.

Image

I have shown you departures, I have shown you seats, if you can't understand it I can't help you.....

Literally the person who I was quoting was mentioning a decades long recovery:

FlyingElvii wrote:
International planning has gone from a few weeks, to a few months, to years, to maybe this decade.
That is reality, not speculation.


I'll quote others I've seen in other threads as well if you don't believe me:

kipfilet wrote:
I thought this tweet was on point:
https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1261306105998737408

Miles flown on U.S. airlines didn't surpass their pre-9/11 highs until the spring of 2004: 2.5 years later

Miles flown didn't surpass their pre-Great Recession highs until 2013: ~5 years later

COVID is a combo—a fear of flying multiplied by a recession. Lost decade in play.

Elementalism wrote:
This move tells me Delta doesn't believe the capability of the 777 is coming back anytime soon. Meaning years. They are willing to drop young aircraft. Arent a couple of these frames 10 years old?

This virus may have set the aviation industry back a decade or more.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 2:58 am

EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA I think is flying too much. We will see what they put in for July. I believe June is 80% down domestic and 70% down international.


AA is keeping their domestic network artificially higher than their peers in hopes of capitalizing on their network allowing more same-day connecting opportunities than the competition; it's not a bad strategy considering their hub structure and the fact that domestic will come back far before international does.


With big risk comes big reward. If it pays off for AA then it'll pay off big.

Today was the highest # of passengers we have seen in a long time to the point that TSA ran out of agents to open up additional lanes. While it was only for a brief time during the peak traffic period, the terminal was physically busy and crowded. Roughly 25% of normal passenger loads on about 33% capacity. We pushed through more passengers today than we did across the entire last week of April.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:13 am

tphuang wrote:
about the second wave. I think it will affect areas like NY less next time, because so many people already got infected from first time. The infection rate in NYC is over 20% and much higher in a lot of the ethnic working class communities that can't work from home. They get their antibody tests and voila. They can work and fly if they want. And you will hit herd immunity a lot sooner in these communities. When NY opens up again, that infection with keep climbing, but it won't be as bad as this first wave.

For places where first wave wasn't bad, I think flu season could make things even worse. And that be the sun belt state that hasn't had it as long.

I hope, but I have zero expectation of a working vaccine in even 2 years.

Totally agreed that it will take longer than people are estimating. If they find vaccine to this, it will be the first ever vaccine for coronavirus. We will see, best case scenario is mass production by second half of 2021 according to Scott Gottlieb.

Agreed on NYC. The "weak" are winnowed out. BOS is also seeing that. D.C. didn't get hit hard last time. PHL didn't either. Chicago relative to population didn't. MSP didn't. Those are all high risk going into Fall. SFO didn't really get hit hard or DEN either.

I'm not sure why the politicians and media are saying we all need to lock down until there is a vaccine. Surely they know the likelihood of that is fairly low. I have to wonder what their motivations really are. Sometimes I read some of the COVID message boards and wonder if it's a fan site for COVID.
cledaybuck wrote:
When can we expect to see the July schedule hacked?

One week, maybe two.
 
Seat1F
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
These are departures, since you say everything is gettting cancelled, as you can see 25% for DTW.

Image

I have shown you departures, I have shown you seats, if you can't understand it I can't help you.....
a


February and March are irrelevant and you know that. We all know most carriers were flying full schedules at that time even though few passengers were on them (especially in March). I maintain that DTW is not running at 25% actual flown capacity in May or June...not even close. You cannot provide data to show I'm wrong because it doesn't exist and it won't exist because it isn't true. You seem to want to put forward irrelevant data that fits your narrative. Feel free to do whatever you want. I'll wait for the actual data for May and June and not your "alternative facts".
 
atcanobbio
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:06 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:37 am

enilria wrote:
I'm not sure why the politicians and media are saying we all need to lock down until there is a vaccine. Surely they know the likelihood of that is fairly low. I have to wonder what their motivations really are. Sometimes I read some of the COVID message boards and wonder if it's a fan site for COVID..


i think their motivation is more to limit the spread more than anything else. The more people stay indoors, the higher the decline rate in cases will eventually be. IMO, the reason politicians ( per scientific data) prefer not to ease lock-downs right now is because, knowing people, huge amounts of people will go out at once. You know the saying, when you give them an inch, they take a mile. So to be safe, it's better to require people to stay indoors (only go out for essentials) and once the number of cases is very low to the point were contact tracing is much much more manageable, then, you can start easing lock-down requirements.

I know this situation is stressful for everyone, especially the people who are financially impacted by this. But this new virus is the real deal and needs to be controlled some how (through vaccine or medication). It's easy to dismiss the info being reported about the virus and assume it's fear mongering when the virus has not affected you or a loved one.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:37 am

alasizon wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA I think is flying too much. We will see what they put in for July. I believe June is 80% down domestic and 70% down international.


AA is keeping their domestic network artificially higher than their peers in hopes of capitalizing on their network allowing more same-day connecting opportunities than the competition; it's not a bad strategy considering their hub structure and the fact that domestic will come back far before international does.


With big risk comes big reward. If it pays off for AA then it'll pay off big.

Today was the highest # of passengers we have seen in a long time to the point that TSA ran out of agents to open up additional lanes. While it was only for a brief time during the peak traffic period, the terminal was physically busy and crowded. Roughly 25% of normal passenger loads on about 33% capacity. We pushed through more passengers today than we did across the entire last week of April.


Southwest and American are basically the only airlines you can build itineraries with at this point. For most of may and a good part of June on a significant number of city pairs. I expect them to be able to come back the strongest the quickest due to this.
 
joeblow10
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:41 am

atcanobbio wrote:
enilria wrote:
I'm not sure why the politicians and media are saying we all need to lock down until there is a vaccine. Surely they know the likelihood of that is fairly low. I have to wonder what their motivations really are. Sometimes I read some of the COVID message boards and wonder if it's a fan site for COVID..


i think their motivation is more to limit the spread more than anything else. The more people stay indoors, the higher the decline rate in cases will eventually be. IMO, the reason politicians ( per scientific data) prefer not to ease lock-downs right now is because, knowing people, huge amounts of people will go out at once. You know the saying, when you give them an inch, they take a mile. So to be safe, it's better to require people to stay indoors (only go out for essentials) and once the number of cases is very low to the point were contact tracing is much much more manageable, then, you can start easing lock-down requirements.

I know this situation is stressful for everyone, especially the people who are financially impacted by this. But this new virus is the real deal and needs to be controlled some how (through vaccine or medication). It's easy to dismiss the info being reported about the virus and assume it's fear mongering when the virus has not affected you or a loved one.


You do understand the moment we’re all “allowed” outside again - whether now or in two months, the cases are just going to surge again? May not overwhelm the healthcare system with social distancing measures in place, but cases are going to go up. So maybe you start only having to trace 100 individuals, but quickly, that will become 1000, 2000, etc.

That’s the crux of the reopening crowd’s argument. It’s “flatten the curve” for a reason - there will still be a curve, until we have a vaccine. And that won’t be for awhile, if we get one. People will eventually learn to live with this - just all happening at different paces
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:51 am

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
These are departures, since you say everything is gettting cancelled, as you can see 25% for DTW.

Image

I have shown you departures, I have shown you seats, if you can't understand it I can't help you.....
a


February and March are irrelevant and you know that. We all know most carriers were flying full schedules at that time even though few passengers were on them (especially in March). I maintain that DTW is not running at 25% actual flown capacity in May or June...not even close. You cannot provide data to show I'm wrong because it doesn't exist and it won't exist because it isn't true. You seem to want to put forward irrelevant data that fits your narrative. Feel free to do whatever you want. I'll wait for the actual data for May and June and not your "alternative facts".


I just pulled up the data from MasFlight, in March DTW had a total of 14,325 departures between the big four. In April they had 6,273 (so 43.7%). In May thus far (through the 16th), there have been 2,069 flights which would put them on track for 4,008 flights by the end of the month before you even count NK. Lets assume you wanted to get down to the exact 25% number, that means there would have to be 427 cancellations between today and the end of the month (30.5 per day) which just isn't happening.

Even if you pull just the DL stats, DL had 12,150 flights (domestic and INTL combined) in March and is on track for 3,472 for the month of May which is 28.5%.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:54 am

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
These are departures, since you say everything is gettting cancelled, as you can see 25% for DTW.

Image

I have shown you departures, I have shown you seats, if you can't understand it I can't help you.....
a


February and March are irrelevant and you know that. We all know most carriers were flying full schedules at that time even though few passengers were on them (especially in March). I maintain that DTW is not running at 25% actual flown capacity in May or June...not even close. You cannot provide data to show I'm wrong because it doesn't exist and it won't exist because it isn't true. You seem to want to put forward irrelevant data that fits your narrative. Feel free to do whatever you want. I'll wait for the actual data for May and June and not your "alternative facts".


This is quite sad, trying to call what I'm saying alternative facts when you haven't cited a single piece of evidence yourself, I mean c'mon now.....

February & March? Did you not read the legend on the right? The % is a comparison of the recent week vs. the same week last year. The February & March numbers don't factor into the %, it's just used to illustrate the decline in travel throughout the year

Your own airport is reporting Delta operating 143 daily flights of the 420 before the virus hit, which if you do the math is sizably higher than 25%
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... 050451001/

Regardless, your claim of barely reaching 25% capacity by October is wildly off
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
atcanobbio
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:06 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:56 am

joeblow10 wrote:
atcanobbio wrote:
enilria wrote:
I'm not sure why the politicians and media are saying we all need to lock down until there is a vaccine. Surely they know the likelihood of that is fairly low. I have to wonder what their motivations really are. Sometimes I read some of the COVID message boards and wonder if it's a fan site for COVID..


i think their motivation is more to limit the spread more than anything else. The more people stay indoors, the higher the decline rate in cases will eventually be. IMO, the reason politicians ( per scientific data) prefer not to ease lock-downs right now is because, knowing people, huge amounts of people will go out at once. You know the saying, when you give them an inch, they take a mile. So to be safe, it's better to require people to stay indoors (only go out for essentials) and once the number of cases is very low to the point were contact tracing is much much more manageable, then, you can start easing lock-down requirements.

I know this situation is stressful for everyone, especially the people who are financially impacted by this. But this new virus is the real deal and needs to be controlled some how (through vaccine or medication). It's easy to dismiss the info being reported about the virus and assume it's fear mongering when the virus has not affected you or a loved one.


You do understand the moment we’re all “allowed” outside again - whether now or in two months, the cases are just going to surge again? May not overwhelm the healthcare system with social distancing measures in place, but cases are going to go up. So maybe you start only having to trace 100 individuals, but quickly, that will become 1000, 2000, etc.

That’s the crux of the reopening crowd’s argument. It’s “flatten the curve” for a reason - there will still be a curve, until we have a vaccine. And that won’t be for awhile, if we get one. People will eventually learn to live with this - just all happening at different paces


i agree, the moment when we are all allowed to go out again, there will be another wave. But hopefully, when things open up again, contact tracing capabilities will be great enough to limit the peak of the second wave. That was one thing was South Korea excelled at. They were great at tracing the people who might have been exposed to the virus, which really helped lower their numbers.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 11:28 am

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
These are departures, since you say everything is gettting cancelled, as you can see 25% for DTW.

Image

I have shown you departures, I have shown you seats, if you can't understand it I can't help you.....
a


February and March are irrelevant and you know that. We all know most carriers were flying full schedules at that time even though few passengers were on them (especially in March). I maintain that DTW is not running at 25% actual flown capacity in May or June...not even close. You cannot provide data to show I'm wrong because it doesn't exist and it won't exist because it isn't true. You seem to want to put forward irrelevant data that fits your narrative. Feel free to do whatever you want. I'll wait for the actual data for May and June and not your "alternative facts".

Flight Radar 24 and those sites have real flown schedules. If anybody extracts the data message me.
 
kavok
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 11:46 am

Osubuckeyes wrote:
alasizon wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:

AA is keeping their domestic network artificially higher than their peers in hopes of capitalizing on their network allowing more same-day connecting opportunities than the competition; it's not a bad strategy considering their hub structure and the fact that domestic will come back far before international does.


With big risk comes big reward. If it pays off for AA then it'll pay off big.

Today was the highest # of passengers we have seen in a long time to the point that TSA ran out of agents to open up additional lanes. While it was only for a brief time during the peak traffic period, the terminal was physically busy and crowded. Roughly 25% of normal passenger loads on about 33% capacity. We pushed through more passengers today than we did across the entire last week of April.


Southwest and American are basically the only airlines you can build itineraries with at this point. For most of may and a good part of June on a significant number of city pairs. I expect them to be able to come back the strongest the quickest due to this.


I do think this is a very interesting point, and one that has not been discussed as much as it should.

With CARES, both DL and UA have just been concerned thus far in meeting the requirements of flying to each of the airports they previously served (beyond those they of course were allowed to drop). There hasn’t been much effort (it seems) in ensuring that the remaining flights are also timed well for a connection.

Basically, on DL/UA you can still fly A to B, and fly B to C. But if you try and develop an A-B-C itinerary (where B is the hub), the result is often either very long layovers or connections that don’t work. Assuming we stay at 25% or 35% or whatever for a couple months, DL and UA still have a ways to go in adjusting their schedule to make connections work for the few who are flying and don’t have a non-stop option.
 
brilondon
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 12:02 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
However, what is really missing is the business traveler. Until social distancing and mask wearing becomes a thing of the past business travel isn’t returning and most airlines will continue to bleed billions flying around BE fares.


It will be the norm for at least the next couple of years if not more. This is a world wide pandemic. The economic repercussions are going to be felt for at least 5 years and you won't see anything like we had before the pandemic.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
brilondon
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 12:18 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
However, what is really missing is the business traveler. Until social distancing and mask wearing becomes a thing of the past business travel isn’t returning and most airlines will continue to bleed billions flying around BE fares.


It will be the norm for at least the next couple of years if not more. This is a world wide pandemic. The economic repercussions are going to be felt for at least 5 years and you won't see anything like we had before the pandemic.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
LJ
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 12:31 pm

enilria wrote:
LJ wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
All the borders are closed. I think domestic is going to rebound this summer with itl waiting for next summer. People prolly going to take vacations closer to home for the next year or more.


I don't think the borders will be closed most of the second half of this year. The borders are opening in Europe. The main issue are the social distancing rules in Europe. I work for a major financial institution and we expect only a 50% occupancy of our office space by the end of the year due to the social distancing rules. Moreover, even when in office, the expectation is that there won't be any to limited face-to-face meetings with colleagues till probably somewhere next year. This means no foreign visitors for some time (and limited to none TATL traffic from our company).

The borders are opening, but they are imposing a 14 day quarantine in UK. Others will follow. That's death for 95% of traffic.


The UK is not representative for the rest of Europe. The rumor is that Germany will open its border for travel from European countries next month. Opening borders from the US may take a few additional months, but it's going in the right direction. They do needs to solve the issue of Schengen though as France doesn't seem to open up anytime soon.

BTW I mean open borders without a 14-day quarantine.
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 125
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 1:07 pm

laxmia wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
laxmia wrote:

Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.


You realize millennials are in the late 30’s now, right? I called out Gen Z as problematic, but if you think Millennials are still going to spring break, you’re a decade too late.


Ummm....I never used the word millenial. Still your comment plays into my assertion that people in their 40s and below seem to be flouting the rules more often. And since when do people in their 40s not go to the beach? Bye now, I'm done with this silly conversation.
 
brilondon
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 1:19 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.

There’s not going to be a second wave because the first wave isn’t even ending. People are just starting to move on with their lives. Hospitals are getting much better at treating it. And a vaccine is on the way.


Vaccines usually take 5 to 10 years to develop. Why are you thinking this will be over in less than a year.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
brilondon
Posts: 3159
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 1:19 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.

There’s not going to be a second wave because the first wave isn’t even ending. People are just starting to move on with their lives. Hospitals are getting much better at treating it. And a vaccine is on the way.


Vaccines usually take 5 to 10 years to develop. Why are you thinking this will be over in less than a year.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 1:39 pm

kavok wrote:

I do think this is a very interesting point, and one that has not been discussed as much as it should.

With CARES, both DL and UA have just been concerned thus far in meeting the requirements of flying to each of the airports they previously served (beyond those they of course were allowed to drop). There hasn’t been much effort (it seems) in ensuring that the remaining flights are also timed well for a connection.

Basically, on DL/UA you can still fly A to B, and fly B to C. But if you try and develop an A-B-C itinerary (where B is the hub), the result is often either very long layovers or connections that don’t work. Assuming we stay at 25% or 35% or whatever for a couple months, DL and UA still have a ways to go in adjusting their schedule to make connections work for the few who are flying and don’t have a non-stop option.


^THIS^

I hope this changes as DL tweaks it's June/July schedules, but right now network connectivity doesn't seem to be as high of a priority as it does at AA.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 2:22 pm

brilondon wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
If there is a second wave people will care even less than they did the first time.

There’s not going to be a second wave because the first wave isn’t even ending. People are just starting to move on with their lives. Hospitals are getting much better at treating it. And a vaccine is on the way.


Vaccines usually take 5 to 10 years to develop. Why are you thinking this will be over in less than a year.


Ask these guys:

https://www.businessinsider.com/public- ... 021-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna ... lts-2020-5

I dont think that were going to see a vaccine in 2020. But based on people who actually do the research and officials at the NIH, seeing one in 2021 doesnt seem far fetched.

There is also this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... virus.html

In the end, because of the massive collaboration of the worlds leading biotech firms, I dont see any reason the Coronavirus threat wont be extremely minimized in 2021.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 666
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 2:41 pm

You can't have in person activities with social distancing and mask wearing. At some point it's going to be either a Global Economic Depression something that far surpasses what the 1930s were like or these measures. Estimates are there are 1 million children world wide in starvation mode because of the lockdown,. 300,000 deaths represent about .004% of the global population. Does anyone actually believe a global depression would be less deadly.

If business travel doesn't return the airline industry has got big problems. The will just continue to burn millions a day at 20% of previous capacity flying around a bunch of BE paxs. As the global depression takes hold even those paxs will wane. It's simple math.
 
kavok
Posts: 833
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 3:28 pm

Everyone keeps talking about “until there is a vaccine”. To be honest, I view the more immediate issue as “until N95 masks and other PPE is not in short supply”.

Currently it is very difficult for the average person to get N95 masks right now (as it should be, with the limited supply going to front line health care workers). At some point in the near future I would hope the supply and production of those N95 masks ramps up enough that healthcare workers have what they need, and thus there is enough excess that the average Joe can easily get an N95 mask again.

To me, that is half of what is holding air travel back. Study after study has shown that the proper PPE prevents virus transmission. Medical staff working directly with COVID patients are not getting reinfected if they have and use proper PPE. Even though a plane is a confined tube in the sky, it is still a place of far lower risk than the hospital room. And if N95 masks work there, they will work on planes too.

And while cloth masks are better than nothing, they are a flimsy stand in for the N95s. Once the average Joe can get an N95 again, to me the equation changes slightly.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 572
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 5:03 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
You can't have in person activities with social distancing and mask wearing. At some point it's going to be either a Global Economic Depression something that far surpasses what the 1930s were like or these measures. Estimates are there are 1 million children world wide in starvation mode because of the lockdown,. 300,000 deaths represent about .004% of the global population. Does anyone actually believe a global depression would be less deadly.

If business travel doesn't return the airline industry has got big problems. The will just continue to burn millions a day at 20% of previous capacity flying around a bunch of BE paxs. As the global depression takes hold even those paxs will wane. It's simple math.


It's a valid question. But you have to ask yourself, if you are a $10 million++ net worth person in the coastal USA, (often over age 50 and a little overweight), which is the bigger threat to you? Losing half your money, or Coronavirus? Coronavirus.

Wealthy or prominent government, academic and business figures (all of whom can work from home) are probably more worried about the virus. Financially they know they will be okay for the next 5+ years.

Average voters have a different set of cicumstances.r
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4969
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 5:12 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
brilondon wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
There’s not going to be a second wave because the first wave isn’t even ending. People are just starting to move on with their lives. Hospitals are getting much better at treating it. And a vaccine is on the way.


Vaccines usually take 5 to 10 years to develop. Why are you thinking this will be over in less than a year.


Ask these guys:

https://www.businessinsider.com/public- ... 021-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna ... lts-2020-5

I dont think that were going to see a vaccine in 2020. But based on people who actually do the research and officials at the NIH, seeing one in 2021 doesnt seem far fetched.

There is also this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... virus.html

In the end, because of the massive collaboration of the worlds leading biotech firms, I dont see any reason the Coronavirus threat wont be extremely minimized in 2021.

I think they are gonna do something goofy like expand the phase 3 trial to everyone.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10254
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 8:35 pm

LJ wrote:
enilria wrote:
LJ wrote:

I don't think the borders will be closed most of the second half of this year. The borders are opening in Europe. The main issue are the social distancing rules in Europe. I work for a major financial institution and we expect only a 50% occupancy of our office space by the end of the year due to the social distancing rules. Moreover, even when in office, the expectation is that there won't be any to limited face-to-face meetings with colleagues till probably somewhere next year. This means no foreign visitors for some time (and limited to none TATL traffic from our company).

The borders are opening, but they are imposing a 14 day quarantine in UK. Others will follow. That's death for 95% of traffic.


The UK is not representative for the rest of Europe. The rumor is that Germany will open its border for travel from European countries next month. Opening borders from the US may take a few additional months, but it's going in the right direction. They do needs to solve the issue of Schengen though as France doesn't seem to open up anytime soon.

BTW I mean open borders without a 14-day quarantine.

I do not expect many countries to return to pre-COVID border policies with no quarantine or proof of immunity.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2155
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 8:45 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
I can only speak for AS, but we're seeing very solid increases in daily systemwide LF, and have actually had our contact center agents calling guests on flights that are more heavily booked that we'd like and offering other options if they're uncomfortable being seated next to another passenger. Those willing to move off those select flights are being compensated.


This is a good response by AS, and why I'll continue booking on them in the future (if I still have flights to book, that is).

Of course, the cynic in my says the increase in LF is mainly driven by a reduced schedule, not large increases in bookings. If you had 1,000 flights and now you have 200, you have many fewer planes for people to fill up. All it takes is a 1-2% increase in bookings to really show across those 200 flights. Again, that's the cynic in me and I'm just using 1,000 or 200 flights as easy math examples.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4297
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 8:49 pm

chrisair wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I can only speak for AS, but we're seeing very solid increases in daily systemwide LF, and have actually had our contact center agents calling guests on flights that are more heavily booked that we'd like and offering other options if they're uncomfortable being seated next to another passenger. Those willing to move off those select flights are being compensated.


This is a good response by AS, and why I'll continue booking on them in the future (if I still have flights to book, that is).

Of course, the cynic in my says the increase in LF is mainly driven by a reduced schedule, not large increases in bookings. If you had 1,000 flights and now you have 200, you have many fewer planes for people to fill up. All it takes is a 1-2% increase in bookings to really show across those 200 flights. Again, that's the cynic in me and I'm just using 1,000 or 200 flights as easy math examples.


of course load factors are increased with fewer flights, but pure traffic is picking up as well. United is proactively increasing aircraft size where necessary, 35-40 flights a day right now. So, that is good but we are nowhere near out of the weeds.
 
twicearound
Posts: 175
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 9:22 pm

laxmia wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
laxmia wrote:

Stupid folks come from all age brackets. But you may do well to remember Gen X and millennials are the ones that actually took this seriously. It was the Boomers and Gen Z who protested common sense measures. The narrative of “young people” not taking this seriously is tired, incorrect and well... stupid.


So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.


You realize millennials are in the late 30’s now, right? I called out Gen Z as problematic, but if you think Millennials are still going to spring break, you’re a decade too late.


I thought it was funny that he called out those pesky youngsters Gen X and Millennials. Most Gen x'ers are in their 50's and a lot of us "hip and trendy" millennials are approaching 40. That's another example of how out of touch that generation is.
 
777Mech
Posts: 975
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 11:02 pm

Seat1F wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
These are departures, since you say everything is gettting cancelled, as you can see 25% for DTW.

Image

I have shown you departures, I have shown you seats, if you can't understand it I can't help you.....
a


February and March are irrelevant and you know that. We all know most carriers were flying full schedules at that time even though few passengers were on them (especially in March). I maintain that DTW is not running at 25% actual flown capacity in May or June...not even close. You cannot provide data to show I'm wrong because it doesn't exist and it won't exist because it isn't true. You seem to want to put forward irrelevant data that fits your narrative. Feel free to do whatever you want. I'll wait for the actual data for May and June and not your "alternative facts".


KLM617? Is that you?
 
jb1087xna
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 2:11 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Mon May 18, 2020 11:36 pm

NWAESC wrote:
kavok wrote:

I do think this is a very interesting point, and one that has not been discussed as much as it should.

With CARES, both DL and UA have just been concerned thus far in meeting the requirements of flying to each of the airports they previously served (beyond those they of course were allowed to drop). There hasn’t been much effort (it seems) in ensuring that the remaining flights are also timed well for a connection.

Basically, on DL/UA you can still fly A to B, and fly B to C. But if you try and develop an A-B-C itinerary (where B is the hub), the result is often either very long layovers or connections that don’t work. Assuming we stay at 25% or 35% or whatever for a couple months, DL and UA still have a ways to go in adjusting their schedule to make connections work for the few who are flying and don’t have a non-stop option.


^THIS^

I hope this changes as DL tweaks it's June/July schedules, but right now network connectivity doesn't seem to be as high of a priority as it does at AA.


Very good point. When searching in June I can't get to several large west coast markets (LAX, SEA, SFO, etc) from XNA going through ATL. (For some reason the last ATL-LAX flight of the day has a time that works with about a 2 hour layover but the website isn't connecting the legs for some reason.) DL gets a lot of flack here locally for being tough to use to get out west just from a time investment perspective when they have a normal/full schedule, but now it actually seems impossible.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4761
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Tue May 19, 2020 12:02 am

Miamiairport wrote:
You can't have in person activities with social distancing and mask wearing. At some point it's going to be either a Global Economic Depression something that far surpasses what the 1930s were like or these measures. Estimates are there are 1 million children world wide in starvation mode because of the lockdown,. 300,000 deaths represent about .004% of the global population. Does anyone actually believe a global depression would be less deadly.

If business travel doesn't return the airline industry has got big problems. The will just continue to burn millions a day at 20% of previous capacity flying around a bunch of BE paxs. As the global depression takes hold even those paxs will wane. It's simple math.


Business travel isn't coming back for a while. 2021 is too soon in any scenario. That is why airlines are retiring whole fleet types to stop the bleeding. Routes that use to make sense just won't anymore. Connecting will be much more important for a while as many routes won't be able to be supported N/S not from numbers of passengers but from fares and lack of business class purchases. Hubs will be more important than ever in 2021. O&D flying between spokes is risky and harder to predict.

I think Southwest will need to adapt to the hub and spoke model more. Good thing they have Denver and that is a giant connection hub already and is used to these flows. LAS I see alot of that capacity not returning in 2021 and DEN will be even more of a focus for the airline out west. BWI I bet will be the Eastern focus for connections even more.
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 125
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:32 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Tue May 19, 2020 11:57 am

twicearound wrote:
laxmia wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

So...I am a boomer, and no apologies will be made. Look at the people not social distancing. Most are younger. (Seen all those picvs of people on beaches? Or people jamming bars?) Look at the people invading state capitols with guns, they are usually white and 40ish or less, and male. When I go out, the people who I see not wearing masks? Younger people. People are very naive if they think society in general, and air travel in particularly are going to bounce back quickly. So, no my comment is neither tired, incorrect, or stupid. You don't have to agree, but lets see where we are after the summer. Pretty sure I know who will be right, and who won't.


You realize millennials are in the late 30’s now, right? I called out Gen Z as problematic, but if you think Millennials are still going to spring break, you’re a decade too late.


I thought it was funny that he called out those pesky youngsters Gen X and Millennials. Most Gen x'ers are in their 50's and a lot of us "hip and trendy" millennials are approaching 40. That's another example of how out of touch that generation is.


Please do tell me where I used either monniker. I simply stated age range, which as we all know, stupidity can reign in any generation. If you are going to contort my comments, do a better job than the president when making up lies.
 
twicearound
Posts: 175
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Tue May 19, 2020 12:13 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
twicearound wrote:
laxmia wrote:

You realize millennials are in the late 30’s now, right? I called out Gen Z as problematic, but if you think Millennials are still going to spring break, you’re a decade too late.


I thought it was funny that he called out those pesky youngsters Gen X and Millennials. Most Gen x'ers are in their 50's and a lot of us "hip and trendy" millennials are approaching 40. That's another example of how out of touch that generation is.


Please do tell me where I used either monniker. I simply stated age range, which as we all know, stupidity can reign in any generation. If you are going to contort my comments, do a better job than the president when making up lies.


I wasn't referring to you, I was responding to what LAXMIA said. The person I'm referring to is AAWAY. Sorry you were caught in the cross hairs.


"I know my sample size is small. The area I reside in is near the coast and has several hotels nearby. Youngsters in my area (Gen X, millennials) have been using Instagram, Snap, and other social media platforms to plan pop-up & "underground" events under cover of darkness. I've observed a few large gatherings consisting of nothing but youngsters at area adjacent hotels.

Even before the most stringent measures were taken by government officials of my region, I regularly observed youngsters flaunting the guidelines. Again, (very) small sample. But my observations were that antipathy was greatest among that proportion of the population that sees itself as bullet-proof.

We were all in our 20s at some point.
 
HardeesBiscuit
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Wed May 20, 2020 7:29 am

twicearound wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
twicearound wrote:

I thought it was funny that he called out those pesky youngsters Gen X and Millennials. Most Gen x'ers are in their 50's and a lot of us "hip and trendy" millennials are approaching 40. That's another example of how out of touch that generation is.


Please do tell me where I used either monniker. I simply stated age range, which as we all know, stupidity can reign in any generation. If you are going to contort my comments, do a better job than the president when making up lies.


I wasn't referring to you, I was responding to what LAXMIA said. The person I'm referring to is AAWAY. Sorry you were caught in the cross hairs.


"I know my sample size is small. The area I reside in is near the coast and has several hotels nearby. Youngsters in my area (Gen X, millennials) have been using Instagram, Snap, and other social media platforms to plan pop-up & "underground" events under cover of darkness. I've observed a few large gatherings consisting of nothing but youngsters at area adjacent hotels.

Even before the most stringent measures were taken by government officials of my region, I regularly observed youngsters flaunting the guidelines. Again, (very) small sample. But my observations were that antipathy was greatest among that proportion of the population that sees itself as bullet-proof.

We were all in our 20s at some point.

"Get off my lawn"
 
brilondon
Posts: 3159
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Wed May 20, 2020 11:11 am

twicearound wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
twicearound wrote:

I thought it was funny that he called out those pesky youngsters Gen X and Millennials. Most Gen x'ers are in their 50's and a lot of us "hip and trendy" millennials are approaching 40. That's another example of how out of touch that generation is.


Please do tell me where I used either monniker. I simply stated age range, which as we all know, stupidity can reign in any generation. If you are going to contort my comments, do a better job than the president when making up lies.


I wasn't referring to you, I was responding to what LAXMIA said. The person I'm referring to is AAWAY. Sorry you were caught in the cross hairs.


"I know my sample size is small. The area I reside in is near the coast and has several hotels nearby. Youngsters in my area (Gen X, millennials) have been using Instagram, Snap, and other social media platforms to plan pop-up & "underground" events under cover of darkness. I've observed a few large gatherings consisting of nothing but youngsters at area adjacent hotels.

Even before the most stringent measures were taken by government officials of my region, I regularly observed youngsters flaunting the guidelines. Again, (very) small sample. But my observations were that antipathy was greatest among that proportion of the population that sees itself as bullet-proof.

We were all in our 20s at some point.


Well put. I really have a hard time believing anything being said right now as no one knows when or even if this will end. The evidence is not showing any decrease in infection rates especially in the United States. Air travel will return. That I'm sure. But it will be years if ever, for it to return to the way it was before March of this year.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4969
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Wed May 20, 2020 3:58 pm

brilondon wrote:
twicearound wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

Please do tell me where I used either monniker. I simply stated age range, which as we all know, stupidity can reign in any generation. If you are going to contort my comments, do a better job than the president when making up lies.


I wasn't referring to you, I was responding to what LAXMIA said. The person I'm referring to is AAWAY. Sorry you were caught in the cross hairs.


"I know my sample size is small. The area I reside in is near the coast and has several hotels nearby. Youngsters in my area (Gen X, millennials) have been using Instagram, Snap, and other social media platforms to plan pop-up & "underground" events under cover of darkness. I've observed a few large gatherings consisting of nothing but youngsters at area adjacent hotels.

Even before the most stringent measures were taken by government officials of my region, I regularly observed youngsters flaunting the guidelines. Again, (very) small sample. But my observations were that antipathy was greatest among that proportion of the population that sees itself as bullet-proof.

We were all in our 20s at some point.


Well put. I really have a hard time believing anything being said right now as no one knows when or even if this will end. The evidence is not showing any decrease in infection rates especially in the United States. Air travel will return. That I'm sure. But it will be years if ever, for it to return to the way it was before March of this year.

People aren’t just going to live in a 100 miles bubble forever.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6172
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Wed May 20, 2020 5:21 pm

brilondon wrote:
twicearound wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

Please do tell me where I used either monniker. I simply stated age range, which as we all know, stupidity can reign in any generation. If you are going to contort my comments, do a better job than the president when making up lies.


I wasn't referring to you, I was responding to what LAXMIA said. The person I'm referring to is AAWAY. Sorry you were caught in the cross hairs.


"I know my sample size is small. The area I reside in is near the coast and has several hotels nearby. Youngsters in my area (Gen X, millennials) have been using Instagram, Snap, and other social media platforms to plan pop-up & "underground" events under cover of darkness. I've observed a few large gatherings consisting of nothing but youngsters at area adjacent hotels.

Even before the most stringent measures were taken by government officials of my region, I regularly observed youngsters flaunting the guidelines. Again, (very) small sample. But my observations were that antipathy was greatest among that proportion of the population that sees itself as bullet-proof.

We were all in our 20s at some point.


Well put. I really have a hard time believing anything being said right now as no one knows when or even if this will end. The evidence is not showing any decrease in infection rates especially in the United States. Air travel will return. That I'm sure. But it will be years if ever, for it to return to the way it was before March of this year.


That is incredibly cynical. It goes back to the idea that people never see how things won’t be different than right this moment. In good or bad times.

You dont have a reason to be that cynical given the amount of scientific breakthroughs that have taken place in regards to this virus in the last few weeks and what looks to be on the horizon. Instead youre choosing to be cynical. I dont believe anything that comes from Trumps people and CNN and MSNBC are also full of it, but I do read quite a bit about vaccine trials, medicine trials, etc. from the companies that make them and the CDC. The left wing national media is basically peddling fear porn and the right wing national media is trying to minimize it for Trumps sake.

Im not saying well see 2019 levels next year, but we should see 75% of that sometime in 2021. Weve got a fight ahead of us, but with the right treatment and a vaccine looking to be on the horizon sometime in 2021 (once thought impossible now seems likely), its a fight well win.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!

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