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Vladex
Topic Author
Posts: 467
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 7:25 pm

It's not as dramatic as the 2nd quarter but it gets worse before it gets better.
https://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article110697.html
Image
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 163
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 11:14 pm

The numbers for overall 2020 are going to be extremely low. I’m personally not even going to pay attention to the numbers, domestic US or international for the remainder of this year. This entire year is historically going to be a disaster for pax and cargo. I’m already looking ahead and looking forward to 2021. Once 2020 is officially over we’ll just have to pull out the operating disk, blow on it and the console and hope for the best going forward. Things are slowly already improving, so I’m optimistic going forward.
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 4:11 am

Good link, what is interesting is if you click you see the regional difference between the top 20 airports. Those worse numbers out of China and Hong Kong for Q1 sum up how it entered the crisis earlier than the rest of the world. That said domestic transport is now on the rise again from those depths in China. While Q2 will no doubt be worse for most of the world, and probably a lot of Asia as well, with the huge domestic market in China, like the USA, it could give parallels to how quickly domestic activity picks up again once the crisis is considered under control in its area, all be it a later stage in the US then China. International travel will obviously take longer to get there due to immigration restrictions everywhere but domestic, or 'travel bubble' could well pick up sooner then people envisage.
 
ethernal
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 12:05 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
Good link, what is interesting is if you click you see the regional difference between the top 20 airports. Those worse numbers out of China and Hong Kong for Q1 sum up how it entered the crisis earlier than the rest of the world. That said domestic transport is now on the rise again from those depths in China. While Q2 will no doubt be worse for most of the world, and probably a lot of Asia as well, with the huge domestic market in China, like the USA, it could give parallels to how quickly domestic activity picks up again once the crisis is considered under control in its area, all be it a later stage in the US then China. International travel will obviously take longer to get there due to immigration restrictions everywhere but domestic, or 'travel bubble' could well pick up sooner then people envisage.



Huge difference between the US and China. China has essentially eliminated the virus from within their borders. Virtually all cases are imported, and regardless, the numbers are low enough they can do track and trace to contain (and, right or wrong, have the Orwellian surveillance infrastructure and societal acceptance of its use to do it effectively). There is no reason for people to fear domestic travel and, therefore, it should pick up much faster.

The US and much of the Western world has not and likely will not fully contain the virus. Therefore, travel will continue to be viewed as a high-risk activity to be avoided by many until a vaccine is available. Does that mean no travel? Of course not, but it will remain depressed for some time - and, therefore, the experience in China will likely not mirror that in the US or Europe.

Barring anything unexpected, PEK will probably take the world passenger traffic crown this year from Atlanta (ironic given that so much traffic is shifting over to PKX, but these are unusual times).
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 12:45 pm

ethernal wrote:
eurotrader85 wrote:
Good link, what is interesting is if you click you see the regional difference between the top 20 airports. Those worse numbers out of China and Hong Kong for Q1 sum up how it entered the crisis earlier than the rest of the world. That said domestic transport is now on the rise again from those depths in China. While Q2 will no doubt be worse for most of the world, and probably a lot of Asia as well, with the huge domestic market in China, like the USA, it could give parallels to how quickly domestic activity picks up again once the crisis is considered under control in its area, all be it a later stage in the US then China. International travel will obviously take longer to get there due to immigration restrictions everywhere but domestic, or 'travel bubble' could well pick up sooner then people envisage.



Huge difference between the US and China. China has essentially eliminated the virus from within their borders. Virtually all cases are imported, and regardless, the numbers are low enough they can do track and trace to contain (and, right or wrong, have the Orwellian surveillance infrastructure and societal acceptance of its use to do it effectively). There is no reason for people to fear domestic travel and, therefore, it should pick up much faster.

The US and much of the Western world has not and likely will not fully contain the virus. Therefore, travel will continue to be viewed as a high-risk activity to be avoided by many until a vaccine is available. Does that mean no travel? Of course not, but it will remain depressed for some time - and, therefore, the experience in China will likely not mirror that in the US or Europe.

Barring anything unexpected, PEK will probably take the world passenger traffic crown this year from Atlanta (ironic given that so much traffic is shifting over to PKX, but these are unusual times).


Fully take the point, every place on earth is in a unique situation and will come out, and its people will view, differently. However it will be interesting to see what the bounce back is like in China and if confidence does bounce back in the US what the correlation is, all be it with a lag, if not perfectly linear, at least positive maybe. Lets remember, there still isn't a vaccine in China either so there are people already flying before some are saying no one will fly until. My feeling is everyone's doom and gloom, expecting no one to fly until 2021 and beyond, will be shown to be a little pessimistic, but of course numbers are going to be heavily down.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 1957
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm

Even smaller airports will see a big drop. My hometown airport in South Bend Indiana had a banner year last year serving over 830,000 passengers which they haven't seen numbers like those in a long time. Traffic was up 15%. In the first two months of 2020 Traffic was up another 13% before the bottom fell out due to the pandemic. Without the pandemic the airport was on pace for over 900,000 passengers.
 
BMcD
Posts: 78
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:11 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:40 pm

For COS:

In March and April, COS experienced a significant downturn in air service due to a decrease in passenger traffic related to the coronavirus pandemic. In March, following two months of increases in January and February, COS enplaned 34,595 passengers, bringing the total passenger number for the year to 310,223. This represents a 7.9 percent decrease for the year and a 40.7 percent decrease for the month.

While load factors for the month of March showed a 34.9 percent decrease percent for the month, seats were up 9.8 percent year-to-date, with all four carriers showing an increase based on original expectations for travel
DC-8, DC-9, DC-10, MD-11, MD-80/2/3, 717, 737, 747, 757, 767, 777, 787, L1011, CRJ2/7/900, A320, A321, A330, Saab 340
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: Airport numbers for the 1st quarter 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:53 pm

As others have said YOY is pointless. The only numbers that mater now will be MOM for the next year at least.

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