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VV
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 9:53 am

TYCOON wrote:
Does anyone now when precisely the A380 will exit the AF fleet? Checking their on-line timetables, they are showing the A380 flying out until next year...
...


The announcement was with immediate effect.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 9:54 am

Its now. AF Will resume flights without A380 as far as they said
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 10:47 am

VV wrote:
TYCOON wrote:
Does anyone now when precisely the A380 will exit the AF fleet? Checking their on-line timetables, they are showing the A380 flying out until next year...
...


The announcement was with immediate effect.


AF has to update their booking system, just like KL has to do to delete the 747.

The only AF a380 flights you will see are AF9990 - AF9999, destination: desert. (or leasing company)
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
Vladex
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:13 pm

When willl Air France start to retire its dirty planes?
 
VV
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:14 pm

Another ten bite the dust.
 
VV
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:19 pm

Vladex wrote:
When willl Air France start to retire its dirty planes?


Those ten A380 do not need cleaning because they go directly to storage.
 
airhansa
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:29 pm

What airlines are still flying the A380 (as in, literally still flying and not on the ground due to coronavirus).
 
Vladex
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:52 pm

VV wrote:
Vladex wrote:
When willl Air France start to retire its dirty planes?


Those ten A380 do not need cleaning because they go directly to storage.


I am sure they will rather store it than clean it
 
Vladex
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:54 pm

airhansa wrote:
What airlines are still flying the A380 (as in, literally still flying and not on the ground due to coronavirus).


Emirates is still shutdown but Qatar is still flying substantially but I don't know which models.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 1:54 pm

airhansa wrote:
What airlines are still flying the A380 (as in, literally still flying and not on the ground due to coronavirus).


There is a thread dedicated to tracking the A380 fleet here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444531
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WBM
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 2:10 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
i dont care to read all the "this was predicted's and this plane is a failures" so i will just add my experience. This aircraft has been for me, the most comfortable Long-haul i have ever experienced. I chased it wherever i could catch it, out of the way, just to fly in its comfort. The Upper Deck, whether DUO in the absolutely back, or Premium Econ, or Business or La Premiere, it was quiet, comfortable and SPACIOUS like no other. Being able to actually stroll down to the lower cabin and back up via the staircases, partake in the "wine tastings" in the galleys, or just generally stretch out (which is not possible in this way on any other), it set the bar high. Corporate travelers demand for INTL flights every hour to fit their schedule instead of being Climate conscious and operating less flights, more density. That is what killed this plane, and now with Covid, those cherished travelers, which airlines avoided the A380 to make happy, are nowhere to be found. So we meet its end. I was scheduled to fly in Business CDG-ATL in August, with my daughter, so she could enjoy the much hyped by me A380 the right way, that will never happen now. Lots of amazing memories, and a wake up call for humanity. All the emissions released to make planes that are going to the desert or worse the scrapper under 5 years old, and possible straight from production? Covid19 or not, we are not living a sustainable society. RIP A380, thank you.

Flame away

I have no flame for you, however I think your post does point to the overall problem with the A380. There is little debate that the A380 is a very comfortable plane to fly. I have never had the chance to fly one. Sadly this round of retirements makes it less likely that I ever will, as Air France would have been one of my best options.

As with many things, the greatest strength of the A380 is also it’s greatest weakness. Spaciousness and room to stretch out are fantastic from a passenger perspective. So why is spaciousness so rare an other planes? It’s not because other planes are badly designed, or because airlines are greedy. It is because space on an airplane is really valuable, and really expensive to provide. The A380 is comfortable because it has space to give away, but it is hard to be economical while giving away space.
 
brindabella
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 2:23 pm

VV wrote:
I still am very puzzled by the VLA stuff.

How is it possible so many clever people made such a mistake in the past?

Whatever you say to "defend" the A380 case, the reality is what it is today. It is being abandoned.

This reality was predicted by some people since the very beginning many years ago.


The decision to stop A380 production was taken in February 2019 well before this crisis. The current crisis triggered by the novel coronavirus outbreak only exacerbates the consequence and accelerates the abandon of the aircraft.


How is it possible so many clever people made such a mistake in the past?

It is possible because you are looking in the wrong direction.

I will not address the extraordinary arrogance that launched the project in the first place.

Although having the explicit financial backing of France, Germany, UK and Spain seemed to make it a "no risk" decision.
(As indeed was the case. AB declared charges of a few hundred million Euro to shut the line down.
With no payments back to the 4 Euro Governments who had done their dough.
That's right.
Zero.)


But rather there is a massive emotional involvement in the A380.

However the evidence which has accrued about the uncompetitive economics of the A380 is unavoidable.

It is clear that as soon as the hyper-efficient twins became available, (B787;A350). then the A380 was on borrowed time.

I noted above the years and years and years of reading on A.net that the LHR situation would be the model such that the Whale must triumph.
What actually happened at LHR???

The narrowbody frequencies increased.

That's what.

:cry2:

Again, read & understand what VV said.

The A380 wasn't too early.

:shakehead:

It was too late.

:ouch:

cheers
Billy
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 4:14 pm

TYCOON wrote:
Does anyone now when precisely the A380 will exit the AF fleet? Checking their on-line timetables, they are showing the A380 flying out until next year... Will they be replaced by B773s with the Premiere product? I don't think that either the A350 or B789s are equipped with Premiere. My gut feel is that A350s and B789s will replace B773s non-Premiere (including COI) and these B773 aircraft will get a new fit-out with the latest business class and Premiere. I have flown a few times on AF's longest route CDG-SCL on the B773 and always a disappointment that this route is flown with the outdated business class product!

Did you not read the title of this thread?

I don't think AF will be installing the Premiere on any aircraft going forward. With traffic taking a few years to recover to pre-Covid levels, why install something that is not going to make money?
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 4:16 pm

Vladex wrote:
VV wrote:
Vladex wrote:
When willl Air France start to retire its dirty planes?


Those ten A380 do not need cleaning because they go directly to storage.


I am sure they will rather store it than clean it

You guys may have missed the joke there.
I think the poster was referring to the dirty exteriors of most of the AF planes.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 5:00 pm

Antarius wrote:
par13del wrote:
So Leahy was so upset with the engine OEM's that when the A380 was heading for life support, he decided to allow one of those original OEM's to build an A380 engine?
Really cannot make this thing up...

Boulevard of bad decisions.

Once you decide to push ahead with a shitty business case, you start mental gymnastics to justify it.

The leeham article above shows he doesn't even want to engage in mental gymnastics:

Leahy dismissed the development of the Boeing 777-300ER (EIS, 2004), the 787 (program launch, December 2003), the A350 (program launch 2005) and the long-range A330 (evolving, but after 2006) as factors inhibiting A380 sales.

He also dismissed the more recent development of the long-range Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus’ own A320neo, which now can serve routes up to 4,000nm.

It all comes back to the demand doubling every 15 years and congestion at airports like London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, New York JFK and Tokyo Narita. These are origin-and-destination markets in addition to be connecting hubs, he says, which remain unaffected by the market fragmentation offered by the big twin-aisle, twin-engine and re-engined single-aisle airplanes.

LHR and CDG are controlled by IAG and AFKL. There's so much slot squatting going on they can make capacity appear if/when they need it. JFK is so valuable that UA left and AA T8 is half full at best. Narita? LOL! Everyone always wanted to be at HND and that's how it's playing out, and one can't fly A380 there! If it was all about airport capacity everyone would be fighting over NRT instead of HND! It's amazing he's clinging to the "only solution is bigger airplanes" rhetoric!

“The market is more than twice as big,” Leahy counters when asked about the increasing market fragmentation brought about by all these new aircraft. “More people are flying, RPKs (revenue passenger kilometers) are increasing and I don’t see any new airports being built….

“Pushing more people through these airports isn’t going to work. You have to use bigger aircraft,” he says.

Well, John, they built NRT and now what? Almost all the pax prefer HND and it's not accepting A380s!

QF was ready to do Project Sunrise pre-CV19 using A350 and guess why? People will pay a premium to NOT go through the big hub airports. QF operated PER-LHR using 789 and got a premium to do so, and found slots at LHR to make it happen. Guess they didn't need a bigger airplane.

lightsaber wrote:
The part values are of concern. Most commercial widebodies see freight conversions (747, 767, 777, A300, A330, DC-10, and MD-11). The reality is, too late for an A388P2F a la L1011 or A340. That is needed to suck up frames.

The A380 wss a political fight within Airbus. One group wanted a proposed A305 and early A320NEO instead of the A380, the other wanted the A380.

No one was willing to do anything more than a derivative engine for the A380. Boeing had such competition for the 787 engine that every engine vendor offered new generation technology. No one offered that for the limited expectations on the A380.

Air France doesn't have a setup to connect enough passengers to fill an A380. Everyone expected limited availability at European hubs and Japanese hubs would drive A380 demand. Instead we have the ME3 and new Chinese hubs with old impacted hubs now feeding the new hubs.

Lightsaber

Thanks for the perspective. It'd be a very different world if we had a A305 and A320neo in 2000-ish rather than A380. I think we'd have seen an A350 aimed right at 777 much earlier, instead of going through that A350 MkI/II/III stuff, the A358 that didn't sell, the first A3510 that didn't sell with the original configuration and isn't selling much better with the beefed up wings and TXWB95, etc. We might have a line up of A320neo, A305mom, A330neoXLR, and a bigger A350 right now and not have lost all that time and money on A380.

Re: "No one was willing to do anything more than a derivative engine for the A380": JL explains it differently:

“We brought out and launched the 380 in 2000. We’re out there with the 380 and GE and Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce are assuring us there is nothing on the horizon. This is best level of engine technology you can get.”

The engine OEMs assured Airbus, Leahy said, that the A380 engines would be state of the art for the next 10 years.

“Then, within three years, these guys are there with Boeing with the 787 with game-changing engine technology and 10% lower fuel burn than the last generation engines,” Leahy says.

“You stand around and say, these guys knew what they had. They were working on it. They knew it was a big step. They kept their mouths shut and even intentionally misled us with the 380 technology, because why wouldn’t you have just wait two or three years with the 380 to get the new generation engines if you thought there was a new generation engine on the horizon?

“They wanted to sell their own generation engines. None of our engineers knew it. None of our product development people were aware of it. That was a real strategic mistake. I’d love to have an A380 now with 10% lower fuel burn.

“Put this on the record: I’m still upset that the engine guys in the year 2000 said there was nothing on the horizon.”

This one is on JL and Airbus. Of course the "engine guys" are gonna want to sell you what they've already developed i.e. a derivative engine. Of course engine tech moves forward in generations, and A380's intro was right in between generations. It's up to you to figure out what is possible and what your business case can support. If the business case closes with mid-generation engines and then it's a flop, the issue is that your business case sucked, not that the "engine guys" let you down. The real issue was political clout within Airbus. Chances are he knew if A380 needed to wait 3-4 years for new engines the other proposals would have one and his faction would lose, and now the "engine guys" are his scapegoat.
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Devilfish
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sat May 23, 2020 7:25 pm

brindabella wrote:
I will not address the extraordinary arrogance that launched the project in the first place.

It was for the most part an exercise in vanity...and the ME3 lapped it up :!: Maybe SANDS would be interested in one to replace its SP :?: I hear Vegas may be relaxing its rules soon. :listen:

brindabella wrote:
Although having the explicit financial backing of France, Germany, UK and Spain seemed to make it a "no risk" decision.

Who would've dared to go against a "surefire" high tech employment program? If they wanted some residual value for their money, those EU governments could take one WHALE each as a dedicated EGO transport. :flamed:


Vladex wrote:
I am sure they will rather store it than clean it

They'd have to clean and disinfect those if they plan on converting a few into fine French restaurants. :champagne:


VV wrote:
Those ten A380 do not need cleaning because they go directly to storage.

OTOH, EQE's birds need to be cleaned thoroughly before being transformed into esoteric adjuncts of their imposing palaces. Granted those destined to be desert ornaments do not require as much attention. :duck:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 1:45 am

How about to transfer to KL and convert to 2class
 
Blerg
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 5:29 am

So what happens to the leases while these planes are stored? Will AF still pay them or will they find a way to get out of the leasing contracts?
 
A380MSN004
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 6:25 am

Blerg wrote:
So what happens to the leases while these planes are stored? Will AF still pay them or will they find a way to get out of the leasing contracts?


They will negociate. AF said the A380 phase out from their fleet will cost them around 500M€. In this number there is an estimated amount they Will pay To the lessor in order to compensate the anticipated end of lease.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 8:26 am

Revelation wrote:
The leeham article above shows he doesn't even want to engage in mental gymnastics:

Leahy dismissed the development of the Boeing 777-300ER (EIS, 2004), the 787 (program launch, December 2003), the A350 (program launch 2005) and the long-range A330 (evolving, but after 2006) as factors inhibiting A380 sales.

He also dismissed the more recent development of the long-range Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus’ own A320neo, which now can serve routes up to 4,000nm.
“The market is more than twice as big,” Leahy counters when asked about the increasing market fragmentation brought about by all these new aircraft. “More people are flying, RPKs (revenue passenger kilometers) are increasing and I don’t see any new airports being built….



What is missed in the airport capacity discussions, ie to move more passengers the AVERAGE plane size must increase. Upgauging the flight from an A320 to an A321 gains over 20% of passenger capacity. Jumping A321's to A330's even more. Even better do a direct flight with a 789 instead of a bunch of A320's feeding an A380 hub flight. The hub dropped a single operation for each A320 omitted and the A380 as well with the 3rd A320. Basically 3 789 flights eliminates 3 A320 flights and an A380 flight out of the hub. Same counts at the O & D. The current average flight size is somewhere around 200 passengers.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 8:30 am

airhansa wrote:
What airlines are still flying the A380 (as in, literally still flying and not on the ground due to coronavirus).


From last week per the A380 status thread.

2 airlines flying 5 aircraft, with another 6 stored, with 13 more airlines with 226 aircraft all stored
 
TYCOON
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 8:34 am

DTWLAX wrote:
TYCOON wrote:
Does anyone now when precisely the A380 will exit the AF fleet? Checking their on-line timetables, they are showing the A380 flying out until next year... Will they be replaced by B773s with the Premiere product? I don't think that either the A350 or B789s are equipped with Premiere. My gut feel is that A350s and B789s will replace B773s non-Premiere (including COI) and these B773 aircraft will get a new fit-out with the latest business class and Premiere. I have flown a few times on AF's longest route CDG-SCL on the B773 and always a disappointment that this route is flown with the outdated business class product!

Did you not read the title of this thread?

I don't think AF will be installing the Premiere on any aircraft going forward. With traffic taking a few years to recover to pre-Covid levels, why install something that is not going to make money?


Yes I did read the title but then checked the website showing A380s flying for AF until next year, hence the question to which one other thread member politely responded to as to why the discrepancy.
AF Premiere (the award winning new product) actually does make money for AF on the routes they fly them on such as LAX, JFK, MEX, GRU, HND, SIN etc... There are only 4 seats in the B773 config vs the A380 one with 9 seats. AF will not be getting rid of Premiere any time soon... and that from very good sources.
 
smartplane
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 10:10 am

A380MSN004 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
So what happens to the leases while these planes are stored? Will AF still pay them or will they find a way to get out of the leasing contracts?


They will negociate. AF said the A380 phase out from their fleet will cost them around 500M€. In this number there is an estimated amount they Will pay To the lessor in order to compensate the anticipated end of lease.

All maiden leases have early termination clauses and penalties, including a holding charge if the lessor can't find a new operator for them. There will likely be adverse tax implications. End of lease requirements will still apply, including pro rata inspection and maintenance payments, re-paint and interior refurbish.

Unlike RR who will write long-term fixed price engine contracts, EA/GE are generally 3 year rolling, so relative low termination cost, but some engine expenses could run on for up to nearly 3 years.

Sometimes early terminations are amicable, for example if for each A380 returned, the lessee was leasing say two new A350's from the same lessor, in which case some payments would be forgiven or discounted, in the old or new leases (or both). Unlikely in this instance, so the question will come down to how much money changes hands. For example, does the lessor really want AF to return the aircraft with a re-paint and new interiors, or would they rather have some cash in lieu?

Most new aircraft acquired for lease are funded by the lessor using two loans, usually referred to as A & B. The B component is the residual value. The value of the A & B loans are usually, but not always, less than the actual notified purchase price of the aircraft depending on how OEM retrospective credits earned have been treated and accounted.

In the event of early termination, the lessee may be required to reimburse the lessor for any B loan shortfall (difference between what the lessor can sell the aircraft for, versus the outstanding B loan). This settlement has to be made with extreme caution, as it can unwind the lease, so is often treated as a variable component of the EOL balloon payment.
Last edited by smartplane on Sun May 24, 2020 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
mig17
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 10:15 am

AirFrance La Premiere can be fited into more 77W and also in new A359 if needed.
They can also increase number of F in some config like BA.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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jambrain
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 10:56 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
If only the A380 had been:
- Designed to be about 25% bigger than the 744, not the 30 some % bigger. 25% is a big step, normally 20% between models.
- Arriving a few years later such that the RR 700's could have been T7000's. A big improvement in efficiency.
- Designed for the -800 with no -900 increases built in.

If two of the 3 had come to pass, the A380 would still be in production. At the same time this pandemic has shattered aviation, with the worst damage in the largest planes.


I would add a 4th, had folding wingtips for 10 m extra span. (The T7000 would still have been too heavy to be optimised for a quad)
Jambrain
 
Strato2
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 11:21 am

Revelation wrote:
Thanks for the perspective. It'd be a very different world if we had a A305 and A320neo in 2000-ish rather than A380. I think we'd have seen an A350 aimed right at 777 much earlier, instead of going through that A350 MkI/II/III stuff, the A358 that didn't sell, the first A3510 that didn't sell with the original configuration and isn't selling much better with the beefed up wings and TXWB95, etc. We might have a line up of A320neo, A305mom, A330neoXLR, and a bigger A350 right now and not have lost all that time and money on A380.


The A380 was a masterstroke as it prevented the A320neo to be launched too early. The present NEO forced Boeings hand to launch the 737MAX and this would not have happened if the A320neo debuted over a decade ago. Anynormal company that did not have fat government defense contracts pumping in money would have already gone out of business. And the present A350 XWB forced Boeing to make the A380 AGAIN. The 777X is a VLA with all the problems it entails and dubious future as a product.
 
9Patch
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 11:33 am

Strato2 wrote:

The A380 was a masterstroke as it prevented the A320neo to be launched too early.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
 
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Polot
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 11:53 am

Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Thanks for the perspective. It'd be a very different world if we had a A305 and A320neo in 2000-ish rather than A380. I think we'd have seen an A350 aimed right at 777 much earlier, instead of going through that A350 MkI/II/III stuff, the A358 that didn't sell, the first A3510 that didn't sell with the original configuration and isn't selling much better with the beefed up wings and TXWB95, etc. We might have a line up of A320neo, A305mom, A330neoXLR, and a bigger A350 right now and not have lost all that time and money on A380.


The A380 was a masterstroke as it prevented the A320neo to be launched too early. The present NEO forced Boeings hand to launch the 737MAX and this would not have happened if the A320neo debuted over a decade ago. Anynormal company that did not have fat government defense contracts pumping in money would have already gone out of business. And the present A350 XWB forced Boeing to make the A380 AGAIN. The 777X is a VLA with all the problems it entails and dubious future as a product.


The engine tech wasn’t ready for a A320neo debut a decade ago.

Not that Airbus would have launched it anyways, as the A320ceo was selling great and they had no incentive to re-engine the plane. Airbus only did so after the C series forced their hand.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 12:35 pm

smartplane wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
So what happens to the leases while these planes are stored? Will AF still pay them or will they find a way to get out of the leasing contracts?


They will negociate. AF said the A380 phase out from their fleet will cost them around 500M€. In this number there is an estimated amount they Will pay To the lessor in order to compensate the anticipated end of lease.

All maiden leases have early termination clauses and penalties, including a holding charge if the lessor can't find a new operator for them. There will likely be adverse tax implications. End of lease requirements will still apply, including pro rata inspection and maintenance payments, re-paint and interior refurbish.

Unlike RR who will write long-term fixed price engine contracts, EA/GE are generally 3 year rolling, so relative low termination cost, but some engine expenses could run on for up to nearly 3 years.

Sometimes early terminations are amicable, for example if for each A380 returned, the lessee was leasing say two new A350's from the same lessor, in which case some payments would be forgiven or discounted, in the old or new leases (or both). Unlikely in this instance, so the question will come down to how much money changes hands. For example, does the lessor really want AF to return the aircraft with a re-paint and new interiors, or would they rather have some cash in lieu?

Most new aircraft acquired for lease are funded by the lessor using two loans, usually referred to as A & B. The B component is the residual value. The value of the A & B loans are usually, but not always, less than the actual notified purchase price of the aircraft depending on how OEM retrospective credits earned have been treated and accounted.

In the event of early termination, the lessee may be required to reimburse the lessor for any B loan shortfall (difference between what the lessor can sell the aircraft for, versus the outstanding B loan). This settlement has to be made with extreme caution, as it can unwind the lease, so is often treated as a variable component of the EOL balloon payment.


Thanks Smartplane for the comprehensie and detailed explanation, very interesting.

As you seems involved in the aviation financing part, couple of Aviation finance consultant are estimating the value of the oldest second hand available A380 around 60M USD. Do you agree with this number?
 
brindabella
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Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 1:30 pm

jambrain wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
If only the A380 had been:
- Designed to be about 25% bigger than the 744, not the 30 some % bigger. 25% is a big step, normally 20% between models.
- Arriving a few years later such that the RR 700's could have been T7000's. A big improvement in efficiency.
- Designed for the -800 with no -900 increases built in.

If two of the 3 had come to pass, the A380 would still be in production. At the same time this pandemic has shattered aviation, with the worst damage in the largest planes.


I would add a 4th, had folding wingtips for 10 m extra span. (The T7000 would still have been too heavy to be optimised for a quad)


Really recommend that you search back awhile and look for "Matt6461" (IIRC).

Matt is a seriously smart guy who did heaps of research into the A380.

His case for a say 500-550 seater 2-deck VLA was very compelling.

One can only think: IF ONLY!!!

If you are interested in widening your horizon on aircraft design, especially as concerned with the A380, then search for Matt in these pages.

Great great shame he doesn't contribute anymore.

:ouch:

cheers
Billy
 
Deepgreen
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:15 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 3:29 pm

I would be surprised if it hasn't been said before, but I haven't seen it so...if the de-commissioned A380s are de-liveried, it may be a case of two somewhat unsuccessful types - 'white elephants' (i.e. jumbos/747-8s) and 'white whales'. Sorry.
 
kiowa
Posts: 705
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 3:42 pm

Short lifespan. Sad. I remember the A380 flying at the Paris air show with John Travolta on board. It was quite a sight to watch even though it’s an ugly airplane. I still hope to ride on it before they’re all gone.
 
Antarius
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 5:31 pm

9Patch wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

The A380 was a masterstroke as it prevented the A320neo to be launched too early.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:


Hahahahaha. The mental gymnastics required to justify this must be exhausting.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
Deepgreen
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:15 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 6:31 pm

I flew to Singapore on one en route to New Zealand in 2010 and was disappointed with the seats. Still impressive, with a leg-stretch involving flights of stairs! I still haven't managed to catch sight of the China Southern visitors to Heathrow.
 
DTWLAX
Posts: 1042
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:19 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 7:08 pm

Deepgreen wrote:
I flew to Singapore on one en route to New Zealand in 2010 and was disappointed with the seats. Still impressive, with a leg-stretch involving flights of stairs! I still haven't managed to catch sight of the China Southern visitors to Heathrow.

You cannot fault the manufacturer for the seats. That decision is made by the airlines.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19320
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 7:17 pm

Polot wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Thanks for the perspective. It'd be a very different world if we had a A305 and A320neo in 2000-ish rather than A380. I think we'd have seen an A350 aimed right at 777 much earlier, instead of going through that A350 MkI/II/III stuff, the A358 that didn't sell, the first A3510 that didn't sell with the original configuration and isn't selling much better with the beefed up wings and TXWB95, etc. We might have a line up of A320neo, A305mom, A330neoXLR, and a bigger A350 right now and not have lost all that time and money on A380.


The A380 was a masterstroke as it prevented the A320neo to be launched too early. The present NEO forced Boeings hand to launch the 737MAX and this would not have happened if the A320neo debuted over a decade ago. Anynormal company that did not have fat government defense contracts pumping in money would have already gone out of business. And the present A350 XWB forced Boeing to make the A380 AGAIN. The 777X is a VLA with all the problems it entails and dubious future as a product.


The engine tech wasn’t ready for a A320neo debut a decade ago.

Not that Airbus would have launched it anyways, as the A320ceo was selling great and they had no incentive to re-engine the plane. Airbus only did so after the C series forced their hand.

Pratt would not have met today's fuel economy, but there was tech lack then. The GTF gearbox was ready.

What would be missing:
1. High mach # high compressors. This allows the high Turbine to get closer to the optimum Mach #. Now, we aren't there. Not even close, but high Mach #s in the compressor are the limit on the turbine. In all modern engines
2. Variable Turbine cooling (in LEAP)
3. High temperature materials (in LEAP).
4. Degree of shape (scimitar blades) in fan and compressor. (all modern engines).


So the engines would burn 6% or so more than today. There was still demand for a NEO then, in particular, the A321.

Who wouldn't have wanted today's backlog in 2005?

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1392
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 10:06 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
All maiden leases have early termination clauses and penalties, including a holding charge if the lessor can't find a new operator for them. There will likely be adverse tax implications. End of lease requirements will still apply, including pro rata inspection and maintenance payments, re-paint and interior refurbish.

Unlike RR who will write long-term fixed price engine contracts, EA/GE are generally 3 year rolling, so relative low termination cost, but some engine expenses could run on for up to nearly 3 years.

Sometimes early terminations are amicable, for example if for each A380 returned, the lessee was leasing say two new A350's from the same lessor, in which case some payments would be forgiven or discounted, in the old or new leases (or both). Unlikely in this instance, so the question will come down to how much money changes hands. For example, does the lessor really want AF to return the aircraft with a re-paint and new interiors, or would they rather have some cash in lieu?

Most new aircraft acquired for lease are funded by the lessor using two loans, usually referred to as A & B. The B component is the residual value. The value of the A & B loans are usually, but not always, less than the actual notified purchase price of the aircraft depending on how OEM retrospective credits earned have been treated and accounted.

In the event of early termination, the lessee may be required to reimburse the lessor for any B loan shortfall (difference between what the lessor can sell the aircraft for, versus the outstanding B loan). This settlement has to be made with extreme caution, as it can unwind the lease, so is often treated as a variable component of the EOL balloon payment.


As you seems involved in the aviation financing part, couple of Aviation finance consultant are estimating the value of the oldest second hand available A380 around 60M USD. Do you agree with this number?

Who are the buyers keen to part with USD60m for a A380 today? Who will finance the deal? There will be a small queue forming to take the money right now.

Used pricing is underpinned by new aircraft demand, timing, access to finance and underlying industry activity. New (and nearly new) prices are very soft, customers are seeking to re-price unconditional contracts, OEM order books this year will be negative (even NB), and finance has evaporated. Even blue chip customers are asking to defer deliveries, and / or to defer milestone and delivery payments.

If no A380's are flying today (almost), the value of a used aircraft is close to zero (no-one needs parts). Given the holding costs, if you insisted on quitting an A380 (true of other models too) today, the owner might need to pay the acquirer to take it away. But in 3 months, the answer may be different

Unless there is a freight conversion (lightweight volume packages on passenger floors), marine and generator applications for the engines, or inexpensive (no such thing) re-engine option, what are the prospects?

But, never say never. One customer dominates A380 effective ownership. Their decisions determine industry early termination costs and write-offs, so perhaps OEM's and a lessor or two will put together a FBTH deal as they did with the A340, to keep aircraft with original customers (and find new homes for used aircraft), linked to new A330/A350 orders. If only OEM's had deeper pockets at present. Don't overlook EK A380 lease and purchase funding participants are predominantly the regions rich and influential.
 
moa999
Posts: 878
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Sun May 24, 2020 11:53 pm

About the only value left in these planes is what the metal recycler will pay.
Very little value in parts with so many airlines ceasing operations

Whoever is left operating a smaller fleet (possibly just EK, QF, maybe SQ, CZ) will probably part out their own spares
 
9Patch
Posts: 514
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 1:51 am

Did Airbus guarantee the residual value of any A380s for any airlines or leasing companies?
 
Hamlet69
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Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 2:33 am

Strato2 wrote:
Any normal company that did not have fat government defense contracts pumping in money would have already gone out of business.


The European government bailout of the A400M certainly helped. And with hindsight, the bribe money to secure contracts would have probably been better used elsewhere. But I don’t think Airbus was ever in any real danger of going out of business. The EU/UK would never allow that to happen. . .
All gave some. Some gave all.
 
User avatar
Nomadd
Posts: 326
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:26 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 3:03 am

moa999 wrote:
About the only value left in these planes is what the metal recycler will pay.
Very little value in parts with so many airlines ceasing operations
Whoever is left operating a smaller fleet (possibly just EK, QF, maybe SQ, CZ) will probably part out their own spares

Will recyclers pay anything for GLARE, or would you have to pay to dispose of it?
 
Ozair
Posts: 4959
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 3:38 am

Nomadd wrote:
moa999 wrote:
About the only value left in these planes is what the metal recycler will pay.
Very little value in parts with so many airlines ceasing operations
Whoever is left operating a smaller fleet (possibly just EK, QF, maybe SQ, CZ) will probably part out their own spares

Will recyclers pay anything for GLARE, or would you have to pay to dispose of it?

Apparently GLARE only makes up 3% of the weight of the aircraft so there is likely plenty of other recyclable material available to make recycling the aircraft worthwhile.

The A380 structure features overall 61% of aluminum in comparison to 22% of composite and an additional 3% of GLARE

http://www.icas.org/ICAS_ARCHIVE/ICAS20 ... RS/195.PDF

I expect that it won't be recycled though. It would probably be more effort than it was worth.
 
9Patch
Posts: 514
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 4:39 am

Hamlet69 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Any normal company that did not have fat government defense contracts pumping in money would have already gone out of business.


The European government bailout of the A400M certainly helped. And with hindsight, the bribe money to secure contracts would have probably been better used elsewhere. But I don’t think Airbus was ever in any real danger of going out of business. The EU/UK would never allow that to happen. . .

Not to mention the A380 Reimbursable Launch Aid that doesn't have to be reimbursed.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1392
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 5:05 am

9Patch wrote:
Did Airbus guarantee the residual value of any A380s for any airlines or leasing companies?

Don't presume Boeing has no exposure to A380 residual values. A & B offer unsolicited buybacks on A & B models, even before a customer starts the acquisition process. And certainly do so when specific negotiations are underway. What buybacks has Boeing offered A380 operators to secure 777X and 787 sales? Are they sweeter than Airbus originally offered to secure A380 sales, or offered for A350 and A330 sales? Future changes to orders and options for these models will be revealing.
 
VV
Posts: 1651
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 8:22 am

So Air France retires its A380 fleet now.

Do you have any guess which other airlines will follow this move in the next 12 months?
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 9:10 am

VV wrote:
So Air France retires its A380 fleet now.

Do you have any guess which other airlines will follow this move in the next 12 months?



My guess: Everyone but EK and SQ?
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
GoSteelers
Posts: 109
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:16 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 9:54 am

While I’ll admit watching it depart into the sunset each early evening was a beautiful sight which I will miss, I will not miss working it from an air traffic point of view. Slow and a pain in the ass to work around.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2089
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 10:20 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
VV wrote:
So Air France retires its A380 fleet now.

Do you have any guess which other airlines will follow this move in the next 12 months?



My guess: Everyone but EK and SQ?


In polite company one must add NH, QF and BA to EK and SQ. NH because they just got them (hands tied on the Skymark frames) but they could actually get 500+ on the plane. The others because the A380 does work on certain routes that they all have. Do I see a buyer for any A380's to be more than a parts donor? I cannot think of anyone that would lease or buy frames even at the $ 70M price point. EY's 35X's look quite good compared.
 
leghorn
Posts: 1298
Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:13 am

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 10:59 am

Some genius will find out how to lay down a lattice of light carbon fibre or aluminium support rods and beams for the floor and the planes will become attractive for Freight.
I'd guess they'll put in some sort of internal lift from floor to floor so that fewer expensive cargo doors are needed.
Many of the reasons listed earlier in the thread as to why they are unattractive for passenger usage then become moot.
You don't care about skybridges or non-freight airprts or the correct 1st/business class configuration and then it become just a matter of whether the airframe is cheap enough and is it full.

https://leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploa ... 20-CMV.png
777 isn't cheap because it is in demand for freight. It seems the A380 has become cheaper than it.

Lufthansa Teknik did some investigations:
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/a ... ification/
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Mon May 25, 2020 1:22 pm

leghorn wrote:
Some genius will find out how to lay down a lattice of light carbon fibre or aluminium support rods and beams for the floor and the planes will become attractive for Freight.
I'd guess they'll put in some sort of internal lift from floor to floor so that fewer expensive cargo doors are needed.
Many of the reasons listed earlier in the thread as to why they are unattractive for passenger usage then become moot.
You don't care about skybridges or non-freight airprts or the correct 1st/business class configuration and then it become just a matter of whether the airframe is cheap enough and is it full.

https://leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploa ... 20-CMV.png
777 isn't cheap because it is in demand for freight. It seems the A380 has become cheaper than it.

Lufthansa Teknik did some investigations:
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/a ... ification/


That’s still capital expenditure to keep this plane in the air as a freighter.

Third party maintenance contract $$$$
Removal of floor panels $$$$
ULD motors $$$$
Elevator $$$$
New cargo door $$$$
Extended reach can loader $$$$
Redesign of wiring and plumbing $$$$
A380 towbars $$$$
Two 180 KVA ground power units $$$$
High torque supertugs $$$$
Engineering survey for wing tip clearance and stop mark $$$$
Cargo envelope concrete reinforcements $$$$
Taxiway reinforcements $$$$
Runway reinforcements $$$$
A380 pushback tractor $$$$
Extended reach elephant beta deicing trucks $$$$
More deicing fluid $$$$
Private deicing vendor contract $$$$

Most of these items need to be in place before you accept delivery of the aircraft, not to mention weight and balance to make sure a fully loaded A380F can handle 10,000 - 15,000ft runway at takeoff.

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