The Heathrow to Charleston non-stop on British Airways has been cancelled for the rest of 2020. They hope to be back in 2021. The article said that the Charleston airport was getting about 10% of their normal passengers right now, and they expect 40% of their normal passengers for the new budget year starting in July. Charleston Airport CEO Paul Campbell says that traffic won’t be back to pre-pandemic levels until late 2022 or early 2023, at the earliest.

https://www.postandcourier.com/business ... 41912.html

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

I could see London to Austin and New Orleans closing, but are you sure that LHR-IAH/DFW count as 3rd tier markets for BA ?

davidjohnson6 wrote:

I could see London to Austin and New Orleans closing, but are you sure that LHR-IAH/DFW count as 3rd tier markets for BA ?

I certainly can’t imagine DFW going anywhere being a hub to hub service.

bravotango75 wrote:

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

I don't see IAH going away but it could drop to one frequency per day. DFW has the potential to go away with partner AA carrying the majority of the OW lift anyway.

Doubt IAH and DFW would be dropped entirely. DFW is a hub to hub route. IAH may be reduced, but not entirely cut, considering UA is not even flying it at the moment. AUS would likely come back sooner rather than later. MSY, CHS, all unlikely to come back until well into 2021 and likely later.

IAH will stay. I remember when I was a gold on BA (then the highest tier). There were NO upgrades to IAH, b/c of the oil execs flying on it. I promise that hasn't changed.

I never knew BA flew to Charleston.
How long have they flown there?
What kind of equipment?
What's the primary market, business or leisure travelers?

9Patch wrote:

I never knew BA flew to Charleston.
How long have they flown there?
What kind of equipment?
What's the primary market, business or leisure travelers?

787

Primary market: Tax dollars

davescj wrote:

IAH will stay. I remember when I was a gold on BA (then the highest tier). There were NO upgrades to IAH, b/c of the oil execs flying on it. I promise that hasn't changed.

Glad that’s settled. The route is secure bc a previous Gold couldn’t get upgraded. What’s the price of oil these days?

I can't see that route ever coming back anytime soon. I could also see AUS and MSY not coming back as well.

stl07 wrote:

9Patch wrote:

I never knew BA flew to Charleston.
How long have they flown there?
What kind of equipment?
What's the primary market, business or leisure travelers?

Primary market: Tax dollars

Sorry, I don't know what that means.

Pi7472000 wrote:

I can't see that route ever coming back anytime soon. I could also see AUS and MSY not coming back as well.

agreed. if there are widebody groundings in the fleet, can't see CHS being used on a limited fleet.

9Patch wrote:

stl07 wrote:

9Patch wrote:

I never knew BA flew to Charleston.
How long have they flown there?
What kind of equipment?
What's the primary market, business or leisure travelers?

Primary market: Tax dollars

Sorry, I don't know what that means.

Financial incentives offered by the airport/city/etc. to fly the route.

bravotango75 wrote:

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

IAH and DFW are not 3rd tier markets, are not "smaller" U.S. destinations, and are not at risk. AUS has proven itself over several years of operation as well (quickly being upgauged from a 787 to a 744), so I'd be surprised if it gets cut long term. Flights to secondary airports within a metro area (SJC, BWI) and sub-daily flights to newer markets like PDX (not even started yet), MSY, and PIT are likely most at risk.

Cointrin330 wrote:

AUS would likely come back sooner rather than later.

AUS will be one of the early second-tier markets that BA tries to bring back on line. This has been a very profitable route, and the fact that the threat of DY, LH, and KL competition in the market seems to have been suspended indefinitely will help matters.

CALMSP wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

I can't see that route ever coming back anytime soon. I could also see AUS and MSY not coming back as well.

agreed. if there are widebody groundings in the fleet, can't see CHS being used on a limited fleet.

Thoughts on SAN? With 747s on the chopping block, demand sapped, and LAX just up the 5, what are the prospects?

Rumor is the route was a very bad performer.

chrisp390 wrote:

Rumor is the route was a very bad performer.

Not like anyone saw that coming...

bravotango75 wrote:

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

DFW is one of the few destinations BA kept flying to throughout the pandemic so far.

blueflyer wrote:

DFW is one of the few destinations BA kept flying to throughout the pandemic so far.

As a cargo-only flight

The thing is though, BA will have to bring back the majority of its route network because after October it will be required to fill all it’s slots again at Heathrow. Unless they plan on running more shorthaul flights.

Arion640 wrote:

The thing is though, BA will have to bring back the majority of its route network because after October it will be required to fill all it’s slots again at Heathrow. Unless they plan on running more shorthaul flights.

I'm sure the alleviation will continue for longer - otherwise even more likely VS will go bust as they won't be able to fly all their routes.

Arion640 wrote:

The thing is though, BA will have to bring back the majority of its route network because after October it will be required to fill all it’s slots again at Heathrow. Unless they plan on running more shorthaul flights.

It’s surely more likely that the “use it or lose it” rule won’t be enforced until BAU returns. No one is suggesting airlines fly empty aircraft for slot retention on the scale you suggest.

skipness1E wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

The thing is though, BA will have to bring back the majority of its route network because after October it will be required to fill all it’s slots again at Heathrow. Unless they plan on running more shorthaul flights.

It’s surely more likely that the “use it or lose it” rule won’t be enforced until BAU returns. No one is suggesting airlines fly empty aircraft for slot retention on the scale you suggest.

You’ll be surprised how much of a return to normal we’ll see by October I think.

Ishrion wrote:

blueflyer wrote:

DFW is one of the few destinations BA kept flying to throughout the pandemic so far.

As a cargo-only flight

Correct - IAGCargo has some very profitable business on this route so it won't be dropped.

Houston was double daily but the last time oil prices crashed and oil companies cut back on their capex it dropped down to ~10 weekly and the 747 was replaced with 777s and 787s. I'd expect it to come back tentatively at less that daily then daily before more is added and probably on the 787 or 777.

CHS was initially a good way to improve the utilisation of the 787-8s with the less than daily flights to MSY, PIT etc but I'd expect the 788 to be initially redeployed into markets that previously saw 777s or 747s so there won't be such a need to use it on a few odd days. CHS was performing above expectations though - before Covid they were looking at extending the season.

Arion640 wrote:

skipness1E wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

The thing is though, BA will have to bring back the majority of its route network because after October it will be required to fill all it’s slots again at Heathrow. Unless they plan on running more shorthaul flights.

It’s surely more likely that the “use it or lose it” rule won’t be enforced until BAU returns. No one is suggesting airlines fly empty aircraft for slot retention on the scale you suggest.

You’ll be surprised how much of a return to normal we’ll see by October I think.

I think you need to remember the furlough scheme ends in Oct and many of those on it become unemployed the next day. The Chancellor said last week we are heading for the biggest recession in living memory. So, no, the return to normal won’t resemble the same level of activity by quite some way.
All of that means that airlines will have to retrench. For example, AA flying B777s out of CLT/PHL-LHR looks ambitious IMHO. Expect all the new US routes flown by BA on the B788 to be dropped. The A380 will, IMHO, not return this year to BA if at all. You’re looking at a collapse in medium term demand the likes of which we haven’t seen. That’s before existing incomes get slashed by higher taxes to lay for all the borrowing. I forget that a lot of peeps on here have never seen a real recession like the 70s or 80s.

FSDan wrote:

9Patch wrote:

stl07 wrote:

Primary market: Tax dollars

Sorry, I don't know what that means.

Financial incentives offered by the airport/city/etc. to fly the route.

So much for the game changing 787 and flying to secondary markets. Just a pile of green incentives to fly this route.

bravotango75 wrote:

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

Lol 3rd tier.... IAH has 2 solely BA lounges.

BA777FO wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

blueflyer wrote:

DFW is one of the few destinations BA kept flying to throughout the pandemic so far.

As a cargo-only flight

Correct - IAGCargo has some very profitable business on this route so it won't be dropped.

Houston was double daily but the last time oil prices crashed and oil companies cut back on their capex it dropped down to ~10 weekly and the 747 was replaced with 777s and 787s. I'd expect it to come back tentatively at less that daily then daily before more is added and probably on the 787 or 777.

CHS was initially a good way to improve the utilisation of the 787-8s with the less than daily flights to MSY, PIT etc but I'd expect the 788 to be initially redeployed into markets that previously saw 777s or 747s so there won't be such a need to use it on a few odd days. CHS was performing above expectations though - before Covid they were looking at extending the season.

IAH every year gets the same mix of 747, 777, and 787.

Really curious about MSY. It was scheduled to go to 6X weekly in June, with a mix of 788 and 789.
I agree we may be out of luck for a while if the 787s are used to replace routes that saw larger aircraft. I think the market was proving itself, which gives me hope it’ll be back...eventually.

skipness1E wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

skipness1E wrote:

It’s surely more likely that the “use it or lose it” rule won’t be enforced until BAU returns. No one is suggesting airlines fly empty aircraft for slot retention on the scale you suggest.

You’ll be surprised how much of a return to normal we’ll see by October I think.

I think you need to remember the furlough scheme ends in Oct and many of those on it become unemployed the next day. The Chancellor said last week we are heading for the biggest recession in living memory. So, no, the return to normal won’t resemble the same level of activity by quite some way.
All of that means that airlines will have to retrench. For example, AA flying B777s out of CLT/PHL-LHR looks ambitious IMHO. Expect all the new US routes flown by BA on the B788 to be dropped. The A380 will, IMHO, not return this year to BA if at all. You’re looking at a collapse in medium term demand the likes of which we haven’t seen. That’s before existing incomes get slashed by higher taxes to lay for all the borrowing. I forget that a lot of peeps on here have never seen a real recession like the 70s or 80s.

Just don’t see it myself.

We’ll have a recession like 2008 for sure but BA still flew the vast majority of their schedule.

You’ll be surprised how quickly things will come back.

9Patch wrote:

I never knew BA flew to Charleston.
How long have they flown there?
What kind of equipment?
What's the primary market, business or leisure travelers?

Leisure. It was for British tourists to visit Charleston. It's reasonably popular for British people as a vacation destination. It's obviously debatable whether there really was enough demand to keep the route going, but no doubt they hoped to build traffic and raise its profile as a tourist destination.

FSDan wrote:

bravotango75 wrote:

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

IAH and DFW are not 3rd tier markets, are not "smaller" U.S. destinations, and are not at risk. AUS has proven itself over several years of operation as well (quickly being upgauged from a 787 to a 744), so I'd be surprised if it gets cut long term. Flights to secondary airports within a metro area (SJC, BWI) and sub-daily flights to newer markets like PDX (not even started yet), MSY, and PIT are likely most at risk.

COVID is a real game changer for international routes, AUS is not coming back for a long time no matter how it performed in 2019. Same goes for MSY, PIT and PDX. I don’t see CHS ever coming back.

I’m pretty sure BWI comes back first due to the subsidy, “short” stage length and it’s access to the DC market.

izbtmnhd wrote:

FSDan wrote:

bravotango75 wrote:

Probably shut down IAH, DFW, and AUS in addition to MSY. Not a lot of prospects for 3rd tier markets, I doubt that BA will return to the smaller US destinations.

IAH and DFW are not 3rd tier markets, are not "smaller" U.S. destinations, and are not at risk. AUS has proven itself over several years of operation as well (quickly being upgauged from a 787 to a 744), so I'd be surprised if it gets cut long term. Flights to secondary airports within a metro area (SJC, BWI) and sub-daily flights to newer markets like PDX (not even started yet), MSY, and PIT are likely most at risk.

COVID is a real game changer for international routes, AUS is not coming back for a long time no matter how it performed in 2019. Same goes for MSY, PIT and PDX. I don’t see CHS ever coming back.

I’m pretty sure BWI comes back first due to the subsidy, “short” stage length and it’s access to the DC market.

Neither Maryland nor any other state has the money to subsidize long-haul flights right now.

LCDFlight wrote:

izbtmnhd wrote:

FSDan wrote:

IAH and DFW are not 3rd tier markets, are not "smaller" U.S. destinations, and are not at risk. AUS has proven itself over several years of operation as well (quickly being upgauged from a 787 to a 744), so I'd be surprised if it gets cut long term. Flights to secondary airports within a metro area (SJC, BWI) and sub-daily flights to newer markets like PDX (not even started yet), MSY, and PIT are likely most at risk.

COVID is a real game changer for international routes, AUS is not coming back for a long time no matter how it performed in 2019. Same goes for MSY, PIT and PDX. I don’t see CHS ever coming back.

I’m pretty sure BWI comes back first due to the subsidy, “short” stage length and it’s access to the DC market.

I think you misjudge Austin. Austin is one of the tech centers of the world now. Tech has not been financially harmed by the COVID crisis. Apple is still building a large campus there. LHR-Austin will return ASAP (I don't know when that is).

Yeah Austin will come back quickly. It was a 747 route and should’ve been an A35K route by now.

Question will be BNA. Common perspective is that it is a leisure route, and that will certainly be impacted for some time - but the 787 has been upgraded multiple times because of insufficient J seats, and demand for F seats which likely came from business not leisure. BNA was supposed to go to daily 78X this summer, I can't imagine that will happen.

Tech isn’t slipping by this depression, we’re only at it’s infancy. Budgets have only begun to shrink and expenditures for tech are second only to labor at most organizations. Changes are coming for all sectors.

Maryland hasn’t yanked the subsidy yet. If they do, I agree BWI is in trouble. Yet if it stands I stick by my prediction BWI will be back before most other secondary US markets, even AUS.

Arion640 wrote:

Just don’t see it myself.
We’ll have a recession like 2008 for sure but BA still flew the vast majority of their schedule.
You’ll be surprised how quickly things will come back.

Considering how many people around the world have had their hours cut or are now unemployed that is greatly going to influence demand. Even the ME3 are firing thousands of staff- this is more than a 2008 like recession. I'm reminded of a poster in Feb who wrote "it's just a flu" and "I'm going to a wedding in Cabo next week and I can't wait!" Well, this isn't your ordinary flu and the borders closed, so no Cabo.

Arion640 wrote:

skipness1E wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

You’ll be surprised how much of a return to normal we’ll see by October I think.

I think you need to remember the furlough scheme ends in Oct and many of those on it become unemployed the next day. The Chancellor said last week we are heading for the biggest recession in living memory. So, no, the return to normal won’t resemble the same level of activity by quite some way.
All of that means that airlines will have to retrench. For example, AA flying B777s out of CLT/PHL-LHR looks ambitious IMHO. Expect all the new US routes flown by BA on the B788 to be dropped. The A380 will, IMHO, not return this year to BA if at all. You’re looking at a collapse in medium term demand the likes of which we haven’t seen. That’s before existing incomes get slashed by higher taxes to lay for all the borrowing. I forget that a lot of peeps on here have never seen a real recession like the 70s or 80s.

Just don’t see it myself.

We’ll have a recession like 2008 for sure but BA still flew the vast majority of their schedule.

You’ll be surprised how quickly things will come back.

I think, honestly that’s delusional. BA are cutting 12,000 staff. This isn’t like 2001 or 2008.

izbtmnhd wrote:

Tech isn’t slipping by this depression, we’re only at it’s infancy. Budgets have only begun to shrink and expenditures for tech are second only to labor at most organizations. Changes are coming for all sectors.

Maryland hasn’t yanked the subsidy yet. If they do, I agree BWI is in trouble. Yet if it stands I stick by my prediction BWI it will be back before most other secondary US markets, even AUS.

The Maryland agreement ended in 2018, and BA only received money if BWI underperformed financially, and from all accounts it didn't



https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/n ... ar-to.html

Midwestindy wrote:

izbtmnhd wrote:

Tech isn’t slipping by this depression, we’re only at it’s infancy. Budgets have only begun to shrink and expenditures for tech are second only to labor at most organizations. Changes are coming for all sectors.

Maryland hasn’t yanked the subsidy yet. If they do, I agree BWI is in trouble. Yet if it stands I stick by my prediction BWI it will be back before most other secondary US markets, even AUS.

The Maryland agreement ended in 2018, and BA only received money if BWI underperformed financially, and from all accounts it didn't



https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/n ... ar-to.html

Thanks for the info, Midwest. Didn’t know.

All bets are off with Covid, thinking it would need support for a re-start.

izbtmnhd wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

izbtmnhd wrote:

Tech isn’t slipping by this depression, we’re only at it’s infancy. Budgets have only begun to shrink and expenditures for tech are second only to labor at most organizations. Changes are coming for all sectors.

Maryland hasn’t yanked the subsidy yet. If they do, I agree BWI is in trouble. Yet if it stands I stick by my prediction BWI it will be back before most other secondary US markets, even AUS.

The Maryland agreement ended in 2018, and BA only received money if BWI underperformed financially, and from all accounts it didn't



https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/n ... ar-to.html

Thanks for the info, Midwest. Didn’t know.

All bets are off with Covid, thinking it would need support for a re-start.

Agreed, with widebody fleets being slashed, routes like IND-CDG, CHS-LHR, PIT-LHR, e.t.c make little sense even if demand were to return quickly.

Charleston was overpwrforming for BA. A strong, premium leisure market.

I don’t expect it comes back in the short term, but it probably long-term did not need subsidies to remain valuable.

All the secondary BA flying will be wiped out for a whole, IMO. BNA, MSY, TPA, etc., even with a fast recovery (and I do think things will recover faster than people think). The new lay of the land will be feeding into the major hubs again.

With introducing a 14 day quarantine for arriving passengers in the UK (excluding the common travel area) from 8th of June, the British government just killed the British aviation and holiday industry.

MAH4546 wrote:

Charleston was overpwrforming for BA. A strong, premium leisure market.

I don’t expect it comes back in the short term, but it probably long-term did not need subsidies to remain valuable.

All the secondary BA flying will be wiped out for a whole, IMO. BNA, MSY, TPA, etc., even with a fast recovery (and I do think things will recover faster than people think). The new lay of the land will be feeding into the major hubs again.

BA CHS is done in my opinion. Maybe it comes back before 2030 if COVID is a short term issue but there's no end in sight right now.

With fleet reductions it can't be close to being a priority market for BA. The landscape has already shifted and it's not a big deal connect there via an AA hub.

They also cancelled LHR-YYC too. I have a feeling that could be permanently done too as they had already cut back it's season twice.