Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:11 pm

hivue wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
I'm beginning to think they just forgot to lower the gear on the first landing attempt, so they attempted a belly landing.


If they forgot to lower the gear they would not attempt a belly landing. They would go around -- which is what they did. As other posters have pointed out, if the go around was initiated too late and/or the gear retracted too soon (if it actually was down prior to the go around) then that could account for the cowlings scraping the runway.


I have read that 3500 feet at 5 miles is way out of sorts for the approach, so they needed to get down pretty fast to make the runway.

A few questions present themselves.

When did they realize the gear was not down?

Did they tell ATC they had gear problems? (So far, it seems not)

How long does it take for the gear to cycle to down and locked?

What attempts were made to get the gear to go down, prior to the go around? (Assuming it was a gear problem and not a pilot problem)

Why does ATC say "belly landing"?

Do the comms we have so far indicate that ATC was dubious about this approach?

I think the full comms transcript and the CVR and DFDR readouts are going to confirm the bizarre aspect of this crash.
Assuming we are ever allowed access to them.
 
Saintor
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:35 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:14 pm

MigPilot wrote:
Juan Browne's analysis, which comes to the conclusion that the cockpit alarm which can be heard in the ATP recording during first approach is the gear warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwfkN5M-bSY


Very explicit @ 5:39 and the pilot loses no time to react (unless it is not the first occurrence of the bell). It would be interesting to know how many seconds before touch-down. If it really went on at 750ft I am baffled. Maybe the actual audio 'go around' is quite later than presented in the video as it is cut.
Last edited by Saintor on Sat May 23, 2020 2:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
avier
Posts: 1066
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:15 pm

maint123 wrote:
My summary-
Not related to covid shutdown as this plane had 7 prior flights to this accident
The plane had a alarm go off warning that wheels were not locked properly but ignored it as a false alarm during 1st attempt.
On touchdown, the physical feedback indicated to him that the wheels were actually not down and he initiated abort landing.
But the engines had impacted the runway by that time and both engines had leaked lubrication oil/hydraulic oil due to damage.
He managed to reach 5000 ft for another attempt at landing but the engines gave way a few seconds before the crash.
His last moment mayday and normal tone indicates that he was unaware that the plane might not make it.
The 3 to 4 stories houses near the airport probably caught the bottom of the plane and he realized the danger very late.
Now since no formal investigation reports of the last 3 crashes in Pakistan in the last 10 years have been released , I don't have high Hopes of any transparency in this accident.
If he scrapped the bottom of the plane, the ATC or other airport officials should have commented by now on the sparks generated or damage to the runway . But nothing from them.
Problem is that many institutions try to mitigate reputation damage and the reports are censored or biased.
Below is the wheel lock warning system for a A320.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Jj758A-hRx

Also see this pakistani report on educational qualifications of their pilots. Not passed 10th class even with bogus certificates.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1454236

Systemic failures.

Makes the most sense.

The other versions of multiple issues happening around the same time, just sound too exaggerated. The issues being bird hit, failed landing gear and then engine failure/run out of fuel, and no indication by pilot of those issues to ATC before, until the end of engine out.

Also, reminds me of the PIA 747 incident of a belly landing because the pilots forgot to lower the landing gear.
I'm not sure if at that point of time they first broke the news of failed landing gear extension as the reason and post investigation found out it was pilot error of forgetting to lower landing gear.
https://cockpitvoice.wordpress.com/2015 ... r-believe/

Hope information released is fair and no coverups to defend the crew and airline.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:24 pm

avier wrote:
maint123 wrote:
My summary-
Not related to covid shutdown as this plane had 7 prior flights to this accident
The plane had a alarm go off warning that wheels were not locked properly but ignored it as a false alarm during 1st attempt.
On touchdown, the physical feedback indicated to him that the wheels were actually not down and he initiated abort landing.
But the engines had impacted the runway by that time and both engines had leaked lubrication oil/hydraulic oil due to damage.
He managed to reach 5000 ft for another attempt at landing but the engines gave way a few seconds before the crash.
His last moment mayday and normal tone indicates that he was unaware that the plane might not make it.
The 3 to 4 stories houses near the airport probably caught the bottom of the plane and he realized the danger very late.
Now since no formal investigation reports of the last 3 crashes in Pakistan in the last 10 years have been released , I don't have high Hopes of any transparency in this accident.
If he scrapped the bottom of the plane, the ATC or other airport officials should have commented by now on the sparks generated or damage to the runway . But nothing from them.
Problem is that many institutions try to mitigate reputation damage and the reports are censored or biased.
Below is the wheel lock warning system for a A320.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Jj758A-hRx

Also see this pakistani report on educational qualifications of their pilots. Not passed 10th class even with bogus certificates.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1454236

Systemic failures.

Makes the most sense.

The other versions of multiple issues happening around the same time, just sound too exaggerated. The issues being bird hit, failed landing gear and then engine failure/run out of fuel, and no indication by pilot of those issues to ATC before, until the end of engine out.

Also, reminds me of the PIA 747 incident of a belly landing because the pilots forgot to lower the landing gear.
I'm not sure if at that point of time they first broke the news of failed landing gear retraction as the reason and post investigation found out it was pilot error of forgetting to lower landing gear.
https://cockpitvoice.wordpress.com/2015 ... r-believe/

Hope information released is fair and no coverups to defend the crew and airline.


Well, they don't appear to have gotten anywhere near 5,000 feet after the go around.
They reported trouble maintaining 2,000 feet.
 
BlueHeaven1969
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun May 22, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:26 pm

Saintor wrote:
MigPilot wrote:
Juan Browne's analysis, which comes to the conclusion that the cockpit alarm which can be heard in the ATP recording during first approach is the gear warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwfkN5M-bSY


Very explicit @ 5:39 and the pilot loses no time to react (unless it is not the first occurrence of the bell). It would be interesting to know how many seconds before touch-down. If it really went on at 750ft I am baffled. Maybe the actual audio 'go around' is quite later than presented in the video as it is cut. Maybe the actual audio 'go around' is quite later than presented in the video as it is cut.


The ATC Recording is here:
https://archive-server.liveatc.net/opkc ... -0930Z.mp3

The response with the warning is at approx 2:52 on that file, the go around is at 4:50. So there is about a 2 minute gap between the two.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12732
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:28 pm

889091 wrote:
I would assume that Airbus' QRH will ask the pilots to perform a IFSD with a low oil pressure warning. Starlionblue/Zeke, is that correct?


When looking at avherald incidents it's a common reason for commanded IFSD : http://avherald.com/h?search_term=oil+p ... search.y=0
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
AT
Posts: 899
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2000 12:16 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:31 pm

Luckily the Flight Recorders have been retrieved. Data don't lie. So hopefully the details will be clarified soon. Will Airbus be able to review the blackboxes as well?
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:34 pm

I do not see any sign of gear door damage.

So whatever happened, the gear doors appear untouched after the go-around.
 
AT
Posts: 899
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2000 12:16 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:54 pm

A glaring missing piece of info here is the state of the runway. Surely if the cowlings impacted the tarmac there would be some signs of damage on the surface? And, as someone pointed out earlier in this thread, wouldn't the runway have been closed for checks? Also, since it was a clear day, the Control Tower should have had full view of the runway. We've heard from eye witnesses and now survivors, but wouldn't the control tower officer handling the ill fated flight be the next closest thing to the black boxes?
 
dopplerd
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:30 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:56 pm

AIRMET wrote:
awthompson wrote:
Contrary to an earlier suggestion, if one zooms in to one of the photos above, as well as lower nacelle damage, one can also see see some intake lip damage. This site is so difficult that we cannot just attach a photograph to illustrate.

I should still argue that what one can see in one of the photos close to the lip of engine no 1’s nacelle is part of the »P« of »Pakistan« printed on the plane’s belly and an aerial/antenna on the underside of the fuselage. However, it may not be of much importance.


You are correct. What is seen in that photo that appears to be hanging off the inlet is actually a drain mast that is on the fuselage. It is more apparent in this image:

https://www.planespotters.net/photo/824 ... s-a320-214

(I just did an image search and the photo that came up is of the same aircraft as this crash)
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 2:59 pm

AT wrote:
A glaring missing piece of info here is the state of the runway. Surely if the cowlings impacted the tarmac there would be some signs of damage on the surface? And, as someone pointed out earlier in this thread, wouldn't the runway have been closed for checks? Also, since it was a clear day, the Control Tower should have had full view of the runway. We've heard from eye witnesses and now survivors, but wouldn't the control tower officer handling the ill fated flight be the next closest thing to the black boxes?


I think I read that the whole airport was closed due to the crash.

If so, would there be a need to specifically close that runway?
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:07 pm

dopplerd wrote:
AIRMET wrote:
awthompson wrote:
Contrary to an earlier suggestion, if one zooms in to one of the photos above, as well as lower nacelle damage, one can also see see some intake lip damage. This site is so difficult that we cannot just attach a photograph to illustrate.

I should still argue that what one can see in one of the photos close to the lip of engine no 1’s nacelle is part of the »P« of »Pakistan« printed on the plane’s belly and an aerial/antenna on the underside of the fuselage. However, it may not be of much importance.


You are correct. What is seen in that photo that appears to be hanging off the inlet is actually a drain mast that is on the fuselage. It is more apparent in this image:

https://www.planespotters.net/photo/824 ... s-a320-214

(I just did an image search and the photo that came up is of the same aircraft as this crash)


It's also important to note that the engine cowls are not metal, but carbon fiber composite, when evaluating the pics.

That may be why people see "feathers".
 
dopplerd
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:30 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:08 pm

afriwing wrote:
clancy688 wrote:
I'm just an aviation amateur, but I'd have at least expected some scorch marks on the tail, if not at the initial impact but then at least when they'd pulled the plane up again.



Not all belly landings are the same. Imagine this hypothetical scenario:

The first landing, they had the gear extended but not locked .. and soon after touchdown the gear gave way and the engines impacted the runway, the wing was still loaded (ie flying, producing some lift) and that's why it wasn't a full impact on the engines and no tail body skid marks (it was still horizontal), then the pilot quickly initiated a go-around.


A more likely scenario is that they realized the gear was up and started a go around but it took a bit for the engines to respond and the plane drifted into the ground just a TOGO power came up. They skidded slightly but had power to get airborne.

If the gear was down and not locked they would have hit the ground with engines at idle and there is no way they could have reacted to a gear collapse, spooled the engines to TOGO, gained lift and taken back off before the plane would have sustained very significant damage, much more than is indicated in photos.

Edit: Also, if the mains collapsed (and didn't depart the aircraft) to the point where engines are on the ground the gear would be pushed through the gear door and significant gear door damage would be visible in the post go around photos.
 
BlueHeaven1969
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun May 22, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:19 pm

dopplerd wrote:
afriwing wrote:
clancy688 wrote:
I'm just an aviation amateur, but I'd have at least expected some scorch marks on the tail, if not at the initial impact but then at least when they'd pulled the plane up again.



Not all belly landings are the same. Imagine this hypothetical scenario:

The first landing, they had the gear extended but not locked .. and soon after touchdown the gear gave way and the engines impacted the runway, the wing was still loaded (ie flying, producing some lift) and that's why it wasn't a full impact on the engines and no tail body skid marks (it was still horizontal), then the pilot quickly initiated a go-around.


A more likely scenario is that they realized the gear was up and started a go around but it took a bit for the engines to respond and the plane drifted into the ground just a TOGO power came up. They skidded slightly but had power to get airborne.

If the gear was down and not locked they would have hit the ground with engines at idle and there is no way they could have reacted to a gear collapse, spooled the engines to TOGO, gained lift and taken back off before the plane would have sustained very significant damage, much more than is indicated in photos.

Edit: Also, if the mains collapsed (and didn't depart the aircraft) to the point where engines are on the ground the gear would be pushed through the gear door and significant gear door damage would be visible in the post go around photos.


Maybe the EGPWS warning is what finally prompted them to go-around. If they were flying an unstable or fast approach they may have had multiple warnings and filtered out the gear up warning. But an EGPWS alert will get your attention very quickly.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:20 pm

Plus, the gear appears to be down in the last video. So it was apparently still in good enough shape to extend after the go around.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3962
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:24 pm

AT wrote:
A glaring missing piece of info here is the state of the runway. Surely if the cowlings impacted the tarmac there would be some signs of damage on the surface? And, as someone pointed out earlier in this thread, wouldn't the runway have been closed for checks? Also, since it was a clear day, the Control Tower should have had full view of the runway. We've heard from eye witnesses and now survivors, but wouldn't the control tower officer handling the ill fated flight be the next closest thing to the black boxes?


We haven't really seen any reports from the authorities on the matter, have we? It is plausible that the runway was closed and that the controller did see what went on, but they just didn't tell us yet. Karachi isn't exactly busy at the moment, thanks to the virus. The airport also has two runways.
Controllers are only humans, they don't necessarily spend every moment staring at each individual aircraft. He could have had his attention elsewhere for a brief moment. With reduced flights and staffing due to coronavirus, there's a fair chance the controller had to perform other tasks at the same time.
 
N766UA
Posts: 8286
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:25 pm

The damage to the engine nacelles is uniform on both sides, so they obviously contacted pavement without the landing gear being extended. The RAT being deployed tells me the aircraft lost all AC power, possibly from damage to the IDG’s. That kind of damage to the engine could also rupture oil lines or fuel lines.
 
cc47
Posts: 127
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:02 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:26 pm

It's a miracle anyone survived this crash.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:32 pm

Does the lack of gear door damage eliminate gear collapse and early gear retraction?
 
AT
Posts: 899
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2000 12:16 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:34 pm

cc47 wrote:
It's a miracle anyone survived this crash.


Yes. I actually know one of the passengers who was on the plane, she was a family friend. She was unfortunately not one of the survivors.

What is so tragic, apart from it being a crash, is that it happened in the worst possible space. Had it happened a minute before or a minute after it would likely have not been as tragic as the plane would have hit mud rather than concrete, and there may have been some ability to control the aircraft to a stop.
Model Colony is a residential area that protrudes into the landing path for just a short section and it is that section where the plane impacted.
 
MigPilot
Posts: 49
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:17 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:36 pm

BlueHeaven1969 wrote:
Maybe the EGPWS warning is what finally prompted them to go-around. If they were flying an unstable or fast approach they may have had multiple warnings and filtered out the gear up warning. But an EGPWS alert will get your attention very quickly.


My money’s on that too. Whatever made them realize their error, they initiated a late go around. Almost made it, except for a few feet on those low hanging engines...
 
N766UA
Posts: 8286
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:52 pm

Wait why did they *lower* the gear for the stall/crash? I get the most-likely series of events but that one just adds another head-scratcher for me...
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 3:56 pm

N766UA wrote:
Wait why did they *lower* the gear for the stall/crash? I get the most-likely series of events but that one just adds another head-scratcher for me...


They were optimists.
 
clancy688
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:38 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 4:15 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
N766UA wrote:
Wait why did they *lower* the gear for the stall/crash? I get the most-likely series of events but that one just adds another head-scratcher for me...


They were optimists.


Maybe that and... If you are about to crash somewhere else than on a runway anyway, every joule of energy which goes into ripping the landing gear apart is one joule less which goes into hurting the passengers...
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 4:26 pm

clancy688 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
N766UA wrote:
Wait why did they *lower* the gear for the stall/crash? I get the most-likely series of events but that one just adds another head-scratcher for me...


They were optimists.


Maybe that and... If you are about to crash somewhere else than on a runway anyway, every joule of energy which goes into ripping the landing gear apart is one joule less which goes into hurting the passengers...


Well, the gear gets shoved up into the plane on impact, I think. Not necessarily good.

The BA 777 Heathrow crash is an example of what can happen to extended gear on impact.

"During the impact and short ground roll, the nose gear collapsed, the right main gear separated from the aircraft, penetrating the central fuel tank and cabin space, and the left main gear was pushed up through the wing."
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12732
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 4:27 pm

clancy688 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
N766UA wrote:
Wait why did they *lower* the gear for the stall/crash? I get the most-likely series of events but that one just adds another head-scratcher for me...


They were optimists.


Maybe that and... If you are about to crash somewhere else than on a runway anyway, every joule of energy which goes into ripping the landing gear apart is one joule less which goes into hurting the passengers...


Except dropping the gear with all the doors hanging is horrible when you're gliding for your life.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Canuck600
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 5:23 pm

The avherald article states they were having problems with gear extension so I think we can rule out the crew forgetting to lower it.
 
L1049L1011
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:54 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 5:24 pm

AVHerald update (confirming gear-up "touch-and-go" on 1st landing attempt):

On May 23rd 2020 Karachi Airport reported based on CAA inspection report that the runway inspection revealed scrape marks of the left engine start 4500 feet down the runway, the right engine scrape marks begin 5500 feet down the runway. About 6000-7000 feet past the runway threshold the scrape marks end.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d7a6e9a&opt=0
 
Adipocere
Posts: 322
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:35 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:01 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Does someone have a Google Street View of the exact location? I’m baffled by news reports of the plane going down into multi storey residential towers - why would they be so close to the runway.

"multi-storey" means 3-6 storeys here. Maybe 20-30 m high. These are not skyscrapers.


Thank you. I saw some pictures in the media of the neighborhood. It’s a miracle that no one on the ground was killed after a jet demolished their building and set it on fire during the Covid.
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 96
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:15 pm

Certainly seems possible the crew made three major errors:
1) Forgetting to put the gear down.
2) Not realizing the master alarm was activated due to the gear being up.
3) Going around after engines contacted the ground (or too late just prior to ground impact.)

Of course just a guess based on what we know at this early stage.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:27 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
The avherald article states they were having problems with gear extension so I think we can rule out the crew forgetting to lower it.


I think that was just an initial assumption.

"On May 23rd 2020 Pakistan's Civil Aviation Authority reported in a press conference that both black boxes (Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder) have been recovered. The crew of the flight had not indicated any trouble or requested emergency services for their first approach."

You would certainly tell ATC if you had gear trouble and you'd certainly want to have emergency services ready if you are attempting to land with doubts about the landing gear.
 
BlueHeaven1969
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun May 22, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:29 pm

L1049L1011 wrote:
AVHerald update (confirming gear-up "touch-and-go" on 1st landing attempt):

On May 23rd 2020 Karachi Airport reported based on CAA inspection report that the runway inspection revealed scrape marks of the left engine start 4500 feet down the runway, the right engine scrape marks begin 5500 feet down the runway. About 6000-7000 feet past the runway threshold the scrape marks end.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d7a6e9a&opt=0


Pretty far down the runway for a normal landing. Would suggest the go-around was initiated on short final rather than when the engines touched the runway.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:35 pm

L1049L1011 wrote:
AVHerald update (confirming gear-up "touch-and-go" on 1st landing attempt):

On May 23rd 2020 Karachi Airport reported based on CAA inspection report that the runway inspection revealed scrape marks of the left engine start 4500 feet down the runway, the right engine scrape marks begin 5500 feet down the runway. About 6000-7000 feet past the runway threshold the scrape marks end.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d7a6e9a&opt=0


That certainly fits what we see in the pics and vids.

If they had gear trouble, it would have been a big topic of conversation with ATC, and they would have spent several minutes trying to work on the problem.

If the gear had collapsed, we'd see that verified in the pics.

They seem to have simply left the gear up and didn't realize it until it was too late.
They bounced the engines off the runway and tried to go around, but the engines were damaged too badly and they stopped running.
They then put the gear down, which made their glide shorter than it might have been.
 
User avatar
mtzguerrero
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:56 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:38 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
You would certainly tell ATC if you had gear trouble and you'd certainly want to have emergency services ready if you are attempting to land with doubts about the landing gear.


You're completely right. But also we have seen cases where pilots try to hide things from ATC with fear to expose some company's or own's failures. We can't completely rule it out.

Edit: I writed "our" instead of "or"
Last edited by mtzguerrero on Sat May 23, 2020 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AVFAN79
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat May 23, 2020 3:45 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:45 pm

Survivor felt “jolt followed by a second jolt and the pilot saying after that, they had engine problems”. Survivor also stated they made 3 attempts crashing on the 3rd.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews ... ontext=amp
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 6:46 pm

mtzguerrero wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
You would certainly tell ATC if you had gear trouble and you'd certainly want to have emergency services ready if you are attempting to land with doubts about the landing gear.


You're completely right. But also we have seen cases where pilots try to hide things from ATC with fear to expose some company's our own's failures. We can't completely rule it out.


I mean an actual gear failure.

I agree he might not tell ATC that he forgot the gear, but I can't believe he wouldn't tell ATC if he had a gear problem.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 23446
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:15 pm

maint123 wrote:
My summary-
Not related to covid shutdown as this plane had 7 prior flights to this accident
The plane had a alarm go off warning that wheels were not locked properly but ignored it as a false alarm during 1st attempt.
On touchdown, the physical feedback indicated to him that the wheels were actually not down and he initiated abort landing.
But the engines had impacted the runway by that time and both engines had leaked lubrication oil/hydraulic oil due to damage.
He managed to reach 5000 ft for another attempt at landing but the engines gave way a few seconds before the crash.
His last moment mayday and normal tone indicates that he was unaware that the plane might not make it.
The 3 to 4 stories houses near the airport probably caught the bottom of the plane and he realized the danger very late.
Now since no formal investigation reports of the last 3 crashes in Pakistan in the last 10 years have been released , I don't have high Hopes of any transparency in this accident.
If he scrapped the bottom of the plane, the ATC or other airport officials should have commented by now on the sparks generated or damage to the runway . But nothing from them.
Problem is that many institutions try to mitigate reputation damage and the reports are censored or biased.
Below is the wheel lock warning system for a A320.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Jj758A-hRx

Also see this pakistani report on educational qualifications of their pilots. Not passed 10th class even with bogus certificates.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1454236

Systemic failures.

Actually ATC requested climb to 3000 ft for go around and it's not clear if they reached it. ATC also warns the crew that they are not maintaining altitude twice, once at 2000 and once at 1800.

Ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W70A0lkO2Uk

If the time line is correct, the whole incident from first approach to crash is less than 3 minutes 30 seconds.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Canuck600
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:18 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
Canuck600 wrote:
The avherald article states they were having problems with gear extension so I think we can rule out the crew forgetting to lower it.


I think that was just an initial assumption.

"On May 23rd 2020 Pakistan's Civil Aviation Authority reported in a press conference that both black boxes (Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder) have been recovered. The crew of the flight had not indicated any trouble or requested emergency services for their first approach."

You would certainly tell ATC if you had gear trouble and you'd certainly want to have emergency services ready if you are attempting to land with doubts about the landing gear.


The discussion about failure to put the gear down didn't show up until well after the avherald report link was posted. I just find it irritating when threads are longer then they should be because people go off on tangents without either reading the thread or any relevant info before they start posting.
 
User avatar
777GE90
Posts: 130
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 5:26 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:27 pm

Just my two cents, not by any means fact but here is my analysis:

From what I've seen reported so far, it seems they never really had a landing gear problems. What does appear to be interesting is that they seemed to be too high (and consequently too fast) for landing, but were very keen to commit to a landing. At the start of the ATC clip the pilots are saying:

Pilot: "We are comfortable, we can make it"
Pilot: "Sir, we are comfortable now and we are out of 3500ft for 3000ft established ILS 25L"
ATC: "Turn left 180" (i.e. preparing tthem to do a 360 to lose altitude).

The pilots then again repeat they are estbalished on the ILS and ATC responds with "You are 5 miles from touchdown desend to 3500ft". To be on the glidescope at Karachi, they need to be at 3000ft from 10 miles away (from what I heard) - so were they still to high and not estbalished on the ILS?

It seems in the chaos of them trying to rapidly decend they forgot to deploy their landing gear on the first attempt (although I would have thought an A320 would alert the pilots to this - an alarm can be heard in one of the ATC communcations but I don't know enough about A320's to know whether this was that warning or not), which resulted in the aircraft engine pods contacting with the ground, based on runway inspection reports, passenger on board, eye witnesses and ATC even asking if they are going to do a belly landing the second time around. The pilots did a go around but sadly the damage to the engines meant they lost power before making it for a second landing attempt.

What is also interesting is that the engines contacted the ground around 4500 ft from the runway threshold, which is almost half the runway length. If this is true, then it backs up the theory that they were too high and too fast and trying to put the plane down much further down the runway. Which also makes sense, given that once the engines contacted the ground, they probably didn't have a great deal left of runway and probably made that split second decision to go around based on that.
Last edited by 777GE90 on Sat May 23, 2020 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Image
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 5282
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:33 pm

Another try at saving a high energy approach, crew got fixated on managing the “flight trajectory” and missed gear warning among other warnings being sounded. Realized too late and try to save it by going around, but engines didn’t spool up fast enough having been at idle for the last several minutes.
 
Viper911
Posts: 332
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:29 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:39 pm

seat1a wrote:
Viper911 wrote:
cat3appr50 wrote:
So, if the assertions are correct that a first approach and landing was performed with gear up, and the asserted staining and marks on the bottom of both engines from that photo are legit, that would imply that both engines skid across the runway during the gear up first approach attempted landing. And then it’s asserted that they did a go around while skidding/grinding gear up and on the engines across the runway, followed by a second approach.

Really? With all of the drag from the engines skidding on the runway, and the associated ground effect, how did they climb out from that runway, and why is there no apparent staining or damage on the tail section underside, as that situation would result in a much greater damage impact than a mere tail strike with the gear down. That would require a high HS (nose up) deflection and resulting significant pitch up angle (if even possible) in trying to rotate and climb away from a runway “high drag in a skidding on the engines gear up” situation. And yet no apparent damage on the tail section underside in that photo, despite how close to the runway the tail would have been while skidding on the engines? Not sure how difficult it is to climb out of that specific situation, never did that one in a simulator.

Nobody in ATC Tower saw the sparks being generated while the aircraft was skidding on its engines across the landing runway, and nothing was said per the ATC communication?

All that being said, IMO this makes no sense.


A320 grinding the runway with its engines, with gear up and subsequent dual engine failure happened before, check out the the SmartLynx A320 (ES-SAN) incident in Tallinn in 2019.

Viper911


Wouldn't a look at the runway show a gouging or skid mark or something?


Well according to the latest info posted on Avherald, Karachi airport did report about scrapings found on the runway from both engines.

Viper911
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 pm

I have seen no reliable information that the crew ever reported a gear problem, or ever requested help with a gear problem, or ever tried to work on a gear problem, before attempting to land.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3962
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:42 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
You would certainly tell ATC if you had gear trouble and you'd certainly want to have emergency services ready if you are attempting to land with doubts about the landing gear.


Not necessarily. Remember your priorities: Aviate, Navigate, Communicate, in that order. Depending on when and what happened, keeping your focus on flying the aircraft safely rather than speaking to ATC is the right course of action. If the gear issue did not become apparent until the warning came on (should happen at 500 ft), you really don't have time to start telling ATC about it. During the missed approach is not the time either, too much going on. It doesn't become a necessity until you know you are being forced down.

The first thing ATC is going to do in response to a call is request fuel and persons on board, request your intentions and other requests that eat up the pilots attention.
 
dopplerd
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:30 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:43 pm

Facts:
- physical damage to both engines after go around (photo)
- at least one engine generating thrust after go around (distance traveled after go around)
- nothing abnormal in ATC communication until just before or just after go around (ATC recording)
- RAT deployed (photo)
- gear functional enough for at least a gravity drop on second approach (gear up in go around photo, down in crash video)
- CRC (continuous repetitive chime) heard on ATC coms around time of go around (ATC recording)
- gear and gear doors appear undamaged and intact after go around (photo)
- flight crew initiated the go around (ATC recording)
- two survivors

Reported: (all from avherald.com)
- scrape marks on runway consistent with both engines contacting runway for several hundred feet
- scrape marks start 4500 and 5500 feet down runway, left-right respectively

My speculation:
A late TOGO was made and the plane made contact with the runway with the gear up.

Either gear was always up (CRC heard was alerting crew to gear up condition) or CRC was something else and triggered go around but gear was raised before positive rate climb was achieved. It does not seem plausible that the TOGO would be able to be started after initial contact with the runway due to the reaction time by crew and aircraft. If engines contacting runway was the initiating event of go around the damage would be much more severe to the aircraft before it could get airborne again. The TOGO before touchdown scenario allows for the engines to make brief contact with runway but still be functional for a time after. The bottom of the engine houses a lot of lubrication components so damaging them would allow for the engine to run for a short time but not long. Also the location of the reported runway scrapes is a long way down and would be consistent with an attempted go around.

The rest of the sequence is pretty straightforward: Engines loose lubrication and fail so now it is a glider, basically a Sully situation. The difference here is that the pilots tried to make the airport. They very well might have made the airport if they had committed to a belly landing instead of putting the gear down in a decaying low energy situation.

This is speculation and based on the currently know facts and reports. It is not an attempt to blame but understand what happened.
Last edited by dopplerd on Sat May 23, 2020 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
N766UA
Posts: 8286
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:44 pm

Maybe someone with actual experience in a 320 can comment, but in the instances I’ve seen where we have mis-managed energy in a descent, throwing the gear *early* is an easy, effective way to increase drag, slow down, and get down. Gear speed in my airplane is a full 50 knots faster than flap speed and there’s no altitude restriction on its use, unlike spoilers which must be stowed by a certain point.

I guess my point is if they were high and fast, to me, forgetting the gear is even more difficult to do.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:51 pm

N766UA wrote:
Maybe someone with actual experience in a 320 can comment, but in the instances I’ve seen where we have mis-managed energy in a descent, throwing the gear *early* is an easy, effective way to increase drag, slow down, and get down. Gear speed in my airplane is a full 50 knots faster than flap speed and there’s no altitude restriction on its use, unlike spoilers which must be stowed by a certain point.

I guess my point is if they were high and fast, to me, forgetting the gear is even more difficult to do.


I don’t claim to profess 320 expertise... but somebody said it on one of the most recent comments on AvHerald, lowering the gear is one of the best tools to slow down and get down quickly.

Seems to me they likely initiated a late go-around on an unstable approach and retracted the gear too early, much like EK did several years back. I’m just amazed they got it back in the air.
Last edited by joeblow10 on Sat May 23, 2020 7:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 7:52 pm

If reports of the runway marks are accurate, It seems like the engines slid along the runway for several hundred feet, though.

It wasn't a touch and go, it was apparently a long-ish slide down the runway.

I don't think the gear was ever down.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1576
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 8:01 pm

Poster at PPRUNE says that mode-S altitude never went to zero on the first attempt at landing, meaning there was never any weight on the wheels?

No idea if that's true.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1740
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 8:07 pm

It seems that what happened is they forgot to extend the gear, scraped the engines on the runway and then did a go around. Whatever damage the engines sustained caused them to stop running soon after and this is why they crashed (although, as you can see in the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxm6d-RDba4, the Airbus protections stopped them from stalling and so it hit the buildings at a relatively low speed).
 
ZBBYLW
Posts: 1624
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:17 am

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

Sat May 23, 2020 8:15 pm

N766UA wrote:
Maybe someone with actual experience in a 320 can comment, but in the instances I’ve seen where we have mis-managed energy in a descent, throwing the gear *early* is an easy, effective way to increase drag, slow down, and get down. Gear speed in my airplane is a full 50 knots faster than flap speed and there’s no altitude restriction on its use, unlike spoilers which must be stowed by a certain point.

I guess my point is if they were high and fast, to me, forgetting the gear is even more difficult to do.


I fly the 320 family. The first thing I’d do if I am extremely high is drop the gear. It is extremely effective. If you dropped the gear at 240 it’s (max speed is 250 with gear in transit down) and keep the speed up with idle thrust you will plummet. The other thing is if you are diving for profile, you’d notice the gear not down. The bus is a nice glider. Very rare that it comes to it, as you’ve screwed the approach up earlier. The only hard spot after that is to slow for flap 2 (flap 1 doesn’t help as its slats only). Once you have flap 2 and gear down you can slow and go down as effectively as you need to in a transport category aircraft (without a tail wind)... 3500 feet at 5 miles should have resulted in them telling the approach controller it won’t work and they will need to get a better vector, or just a visual approach so they can do it themselves.

With the master warning going off (flap over speed potentially) maybe PM smashing the cancel.. seems these guys are focus on making it work. Also they landed way down the runway. Without any prior problem that alone is quite shocking... seems like an interesting investigation.
Keep the shinny side up!
  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos