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joeblow10
Posts: 439
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 1:52 am

panamair wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
Southwest knows what they are doing, they have never lost money in their history. I am sure they will post a profit on the second quarter.


What are you talking about? They just posted losses for Q1 2020:

http://investors.southwest.com/news-and ... -110107839


I believe they’ve never posted an annual loss in over 40 years, somebody correct me if I’m wrong. I don’t see how that doesn’t change in 2020, but if it truly doesn’t, that will certainly be extremely impressive.
 
flybry
Posts: 161
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 2:08 am

Southwest may have a strategy adding tons of flights back quickly. But without passengers on those flights, it’s a strategy for failure.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1501
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 2:13 am

Bentonville is now the 5th fastest growing city in America. Northwest Arkansas is now projected to top 1million in time for 2045. Throwing a 737 on DAL, DEN, PHX or LAS, STL or MDW and ATL or BNA would be taking advantage of opportunity. Since they think some flights will only be 45% capacity, stick XNA in between DEN and ATL/BNA, DAL and STL/MDW, add MCO on Sats only.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:19 am

Playing devil's advocate, how applicable is the "Southwest Effect" over the next few months? I get that passenger numbers are on their way up, but how much latent traffic is there to actually be stimulated?
 
737max8
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:31 am

flybry wrote:
Southwest may have a strategy adding tons of flights back quickly. But without passengers on those flights, it’s a strategy for failure.


Except passengers are coming back. Even flying standby is getting tough again.

Everyone likes to hate on WN in these threads, yet they post better results than their competitors over and over again. Along with Delta.

Everyone else wishes they were at the same level of performance.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
Flown on: 717 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 7M8 744 744ER 752 753 762 763 772 773ER 788 789 A220 A319/20/21 A332 A333 A339 A343 A346 A359 A388
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1237
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:34 am

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
WN should become relevant Northeast of Philadelphia before fighting others everywhere else.


Why, then the following should also happen...

UA should become relevant south of Washington DC
B6 should become relevant west of the Appalachian Mountains
AS should become relevant east of the Sierra Nevada
AA should become relevant on the west coast
DL should become relevant in the southwest
SY should become relevant outside of Minneapolis
G4 should become relevant in large cities


UA is very much relevant south of IAD. They don’t need a hub to do so.
B6 is way smaller than WN.
AS is a fraction the size of WN.
AA is the largest carrier at LAX and was planning on expanding at SEA.
DL has SLC and LAX. They were also growing AUS.
SY has like 20 aircraft...
G4’s entire business strategy is against big cities.

For WN to have only a couple dozen flights a day from NYC is embarrassing. No one here even considers them an option or relevant.
 
SWADawg
Posts: 587
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:42 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
WN should become relevant Northeast of Philadelphia before fighting others everywhere else.


Why, then the following should also happen...

UA should become relevant south of Washington DC
B6 should become relevant west of the Appalachian Mountains
AS should become relevant east of the Sierra Nevada
AA should become relevant on the west coast
DL should become relevant in the southwest
SY should become relevant outside of Minneapolis
G4 should become relevant in large cities


UA is very much relevant south of IAD. They don’t need a hub to do so.
B6 is way smaller than WN.
AS is a fraction the size of WN.
AA is the largest carrier at LAX and was planning on expanding at SEA.
DL has SLC and LAX. They were also growing AUS.
SY has like 20 aircraft...
G4’s entire business strategy is against big cities.

For WN to have only a couple dozen flights a day from NYC is embarrassing. No one here even considers them an option or relevant.

Well that’s sort of the point of this entire thread. WN will most likely acquire more LGA slots from other carriers that need to raise cash and downsize. I expect they will become more relevant in NYC coming out of this pandemic than they were going in.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1237
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:44 am

SWADawg wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:

Why, then the following should also happen...

UA should become relevant south of Washington DC
B6 should become relevant west of the Appalachian Mountains
AS should become relevant east of the Sierra Nevada
AA should become relevant on the west coast
DL should become relevant in the southwest
SY should become relevant outside of Minneapolis
G4 should become relevant in large cities


UA is very much relevant south of IAD. They don’t need a hub to do so.
B6 is way smaller than WN.
AS is a fraction the size of WN.
AA is the largest carrier at LAX and was planning on expanding at SEA.
DL has SLC and LAX. They were also growing AUS.
SY has like 20 aircraft...
G4’s entire business strategy is against big cities.

For WN to have only a couple dozen flights a day from NYC is embarrassing. No one here even considers them an option or relevant.

Well that’s sort of the point of this entire thread. WN will most likely acquire more LGA slots from other carriers that need to raise cash and downsize. I expect they will become more relevant in NYC coming out of this pandemic than they were going in.


WN is the weak one here so who did they plan on squeezing in NYC? LGA won’t help WN. EWR serves more domestic pax then any other NYC airport and yet WN just up and left. They should probably reevaluate that decision.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeemzing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 4:02 am

MO11 wrote:
nws2002 wrote:
DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


Their CASM is lower than AA/DL/UA/B6/HA, at least as of 2018 which are the latest numbers I could find quickly. While they are higher than the ULCC (NK/F9/G4) they are nowhere near the big 3.


Southwest is nearly a penny higher than JetBlue (more if you don't count fuel), and way higher that Alaska, which also isn't an LCC.


Comparing casm without adjusting for asl has been getting forum airline analysts in trouble for decades.

Shorter asl’s ensures higher unit costs.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1836
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 4:18 am

Southwest is a ruthless competitor. They went hard at DEN when believing Frontier was weak - and they were right. Then tried to buy off Frontier by making an offer to essentially remove a competitor. Actually went through with similar at Midway with ATA. Even Scott Kirby has been quoted from an internal UAL communique as describing present day SWA as wanted to diminish UAL at Denver and become top domestic carrier in Chicago.
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4435
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 4:26 am

I can remember the war cries from US Airways CEO back in the day. They threw everything they had to beat WN and knock them out of the NE. I remember UA swinging with all they had in the West Coast (Shuttle.) So many of the big boys fought and fought WN back in the day.

I think WN should just keep doing what they do best, and their future looks great in comparison to the others. To me, the "war" was over a long time ago when it came to flexing muscle.

I think WN should just focus on their own piece of the pie right now. Taking a sword to the heart of anyone down right now is not kosher in my book. I am more or less thinking of every single airline employee across the world right now, and their livelihoods. I am all for a good fight when things are good, but let's face it. It's a very fragile time right now. I love Southwest, but I really think right now would be the time to focus on their own issues at the moment. Of course, this is just all my own opinion.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
evank516
Posts: 2153
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:33 am

What are the odds the other carriers monitor how WN does with this plan and if it works they restore a larger bulk of their flights sooner in response?
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5008
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:34 am

evank516 wrote:
What are the odds the other carriers monitor how WN does with this plan and if it works they restore a larger bulk of their flights sooner in response?

1/1
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 7314
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:35 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

UA is very much relevant south of IAD. They don’t need a hub to do so.
B6 is way smaller than WN.
AS is a fraction the size of WN.
AA is the largest carrier at LAX and was planning on expanding at SEA.
DL has SLC and LAX. They were also growing AUS.
SY has like 20 aircraft...
G4’s entire business strategy is against big cities.

For WN to have only a couple dozen flights a day from NYC is embarrassing. No one here even considers them an option or relevant.

Well that’s sort of the point of this entire thread. WN will most likely acquire more LGA slots from other carriers that need to raise cash and downsize. I expect they will become more relevant in NYC coming out of this pandemic than they were going in.


WN is the weak one here so who did they plan on squeezing in NYC? LGA won’t help WN. EWR serves more domestic pax then any other NYC airport and yet WN just up and left. They should probably reevaluate that decision.

Call me crazy but WN may try to make a move in JFK that has 3 carriers’ hubs that were already in a fierce battle versus EWR which is a fortress for one carrier. I’m not saying WN will make a hub in JFK, but now would be the time to strike. With some more small but strategic growth in BOS and PHL, WN can become a real threat in the NE. They already have a toehold in LGA and still have good consumer awareness in NYC thanks to the LGA, ISP, and (now former) EWR ops.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5008
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:53 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
Well that’s sort of the point of this entire thread. WN will most likely acquire more LGA slots from other carriers that need to raise cash and downsize. I expect they will become more relevant in NYC coming out of this pandemic than they were going in.


WN is the weak one here so who did they plan on squeezing in NYC? LGA won’t help WN. EWR serves more domestic pax then any other NYC airport and yet WN just up and left. They should probably reevaluate that decision.

Call me crazy but WN may try to make a move in JFK that has 3 carriers’ hubs that were already in a fierce battle versus EWR which is a fortress for one carrier. I’m not saying WN will make a hub in JFK, but now would be the time to strike. With some more small but strategic growth in BOS and PHL, WN can become a real threat in the NE. They already have a toehold in LGA and still have good consumer awareness in NYC thanks to the LGA, ISP, and (now former) EWR ops.

They could swipe Hawaii from Alaska maybe
 
chrisair
Posts: 2159
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 6:38 am

Dieuwer wrote:
If you think Trump will allow a major airline to go under and have 50,000+ unemployed on the streets in an election year.... think not.


There are already 43 million unemployed now.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2002
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 2:06 pm

WN like every other airline is trying to keep the lights on. It's also trying to keep it's track record of not having to laying off or force pay-cuts. During every downturn in the economy WN has always expanded to find ways to increase revenue.
Using SNA as a example it saw opportunity after 9/11 to gain marketshare as others pulled back which paid off during the downturn.
Yes it had to give slots back as others turned around over time but the gamble paid off.
Instead of parking aircraft during the first mini recession WN decided it was time to finally add DEN and opened MKE.
During the down times WN has always made decisions to make moves to keep revenue coming in. Yes this pandemic is horrible but it can either scale back to nothing and furlough thousands adding to the unemployment numbers. Or it can be nimble and carefully balance it's stability and grow it's revenue to keep It's people employed.
Ya I know it's sucks for UA,AA and DL But WN treats it's employees as an Cherished asset vs a sliding number you can just cut on a whim.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
N766UA
Posts: 8339
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 2:50 pm

chrisair wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If you think Trump will allow a major airline to go under and have 50,000+ unemployed on the streets in an election year.... think not.


There are already 43 million unemployed now.


No kidding. I know Trump pretends to be all-powerful, but dude, seriously? “Allow?”

The majors will shrink. Many will lose their jobs. But opportunity will be created as the big 3 shrink and airlines like Southwest, Spirit, JetBlue, etc, if they’re smart (and can survive,) should already be thinking about how to capitalize.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4328
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:14 pm

WN also is willing to back out of markets. They have a presence in Seattle, but less than before. They seem to have decided to let Alaska and Delta fight it out, and remain a profitable(?) third place presence.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
bob75013
Posts: 996
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:17 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Playing devil's advocate, how applicable is the "Southwest Effect" over the next few months? I get that passenger numbers are on their way up, but how much latent traffic is there to actually be stimulated?


I can only talk about one route that I fly a lot: Dallas / Chicago

Looking at July, I can fly WN for $90 RT most days, but it costs me about $155-$170 on UA (and that is bottom of the barrel deep discount)-or $ 222 for economy.. Which airline is likely to get more people flying? It's called the Southwest effect.

And traffic is coming back. I flew DEN//DAL yesterday on a 738 that hit capacity control: 117 pax. .
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1406
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 3:55 pm

This was also brought up on their investor call, so it shouldn't be any surprise. Scott Kirby (who is extremely competitive) even acknowledged this on their town hall a couple weeks ago and admitted there's no way they could match their liquidity, so they have to do whatever it takes to protect their assets.

WN is getting their cash burn down to almost $20 million in June and even repaid $3B of their higher cost debt they took on when the sky was initially falling.
 
capitalflyer
Posts: 629
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:43 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 4:07 pm

This is very smart. COVID has provided opportunity to make major moves (fleet overhauls/retirements, route adjustments, etc.). I wonder if WN is also buying as much fuel as possible right now given prices.
They should try to kill off F9 and NK (either buying them or driving them out of business). In re: slots, legacies will not make those available without going bankrupt first. WN might be able to get slots from B6, F9 or NK if they need cash and sell them.
 
StrandedAtMKG
Posts: 304
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2015 5:51 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 4:31 pm

DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Back to the topic:

How much deeper are WN's pockets compared to the likes of, say, DL or UA (not even going to ask about AA, as a.net seems to think AA is a dead man walking right now)? How long can they burn cash keeping the lights on and running mostly empty flights from smaller stations versus their competitors?
 
WN732
Posts: 815
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 4:49 pm

StrandedAtMKG wrote:
DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Back to the topic:

How much deeper are WN's pockets compared to the likes of, say, DL or UA (not even going to ask about AA, as a.net seems to think AA is a dead man walking right now)? How long can they burn cash keeping the lights on and running mostly empty flights from smaller stations versus their competitors?


No no he's right, they are not an LLC. They are THE LLC.
 
flybry
Posts: 161
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:08 pm

If Southwest is such a Brilliant, vibrant competitor on the offense, what do you call its pullout from Newark BEFORE the coronavirus crisis?
 
United1
Posts: 4186
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:09 pm

StrandedAtMKG wrote:
DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Back to the topic:

How much deeper are WN's pockets compared to the likes of, say, DL or UA (not even going to ask about AA, as a.net seems to think AA is a dead man walking right now)? How long can they burn cash keeping the lights on and running mostly empty flights from smaller stations versus their competitors?


Well that depends....on how much any of them can borrow and at what speed demand returns. All three airlines are projecting relatively stable cash positions into the winter and the analyst community are projecting all three airlines to be profitable in 2021 (they are early projections but encouraging.) All three have fairly large piles of unencumbered assets that could be borrowed against, all three can borrow from the feds under CARES if they need to. WN and DL will probably be cash positive by the end of this year and while I haven't seen UAs projection decent chance UA will be as well or will be early next year.

WN is projecting a cash burn of around $20 million a day in June, UA is projecting around $40-$45 and DL is projecting around $40. Those numbers will continue to go down as demand increases and as airlines cut costs and generate more revenue.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
swafa
Posts: 50
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 12:33 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:13 pm

flybry wrote:
If Southwest is such a Brilliant, vibrant competitor on the offense, what do you call its pullout from Newark BEFORE the coronavirus crisis?


I call it an unfortunate victim of the boeing Max debacle.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2265
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:16 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
WN also is willing to back out of markets. They have a presence in Seattle, but less than before. They seem to have decided to let Alaska and Delta fight it out, and remain a profitable(?) third place presence.


WN gave up on growth out of SEA long before the AS-DL battle. They tried to expand to regional flying and AS chased them out. Pre-covid they were tied in third place with AA and UA and had a 6% market share. They might increase that share but to where? No one is flying to SNA, SJC or many other of their n/s SEA markets. And as to chasing AS out of Hawaii, they won't succeed except likely out of OAK and SMF.
 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 323
Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:18 pm

DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


Southwest is still very much an LCC.
 
United1
Posts: 4186
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:20 pm

WN732 wrote:
StrandedAtMKG wrote:
DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Back to the topic:

How much deeper are WN's pockets compared to the likes of, say, DL or UA (not even going to ask about AA, as a.net seems to think AA is a dead man walking right now)? How long can they burn cash keeping the lights on and running mostly empty flights from smaller stations versus their competitors?


No no he's right, they are not an LLC. They are THE LLC.


Oh quit thumping your chest...

WN is a LCC and we can debate all day whether Herb or Sir Freddie Laker came up with the concept but WN is certainly not "THE" LCC any longer. Quite a number of of LCC carriers have improved upon WNs model and offer lower fares, better service and have lower costs. I will give you that WN is a very successful stable carrier but they are certainly not the end all of airlines any longer.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
flybry
Posts: 161
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:44 pm

swafa wrote:
flybry wrote:
If Southwest is such a Brilliant, vibrant competitor on the offense, what do you call its pullout from Newark BEFORE the coronavirus crisis?


I call it an unfortunate victim of the boeing Max debacle.


Convenient excuse lolz
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10355
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:51 pm

flybry wrote:
swafa wrote:
flybry wrote:
If Southwest is such a Brilliant, vibrant competitor on the offense, what do you call its pullout from Newark BEFORE the coronavirus crisis?


I call it an unfortunate victim of the boeing Max debacle.


Convenient excuse lolz

I call it a recognition that the market was not working for them the way they intended, when EWR have their normal meltdowns, the effect on WN who does not interline is greater than the legacy carriers.
WN has done well over the years, that does not mean that they are perfect and do not make mistakes, they have made a few especially in the north east, the Islip ramp also springs to mind, you can look it up.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 5:54 pm

StrandedAtMKG wrote:
DDR wrote:
WN is not a LCC


WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Back to the topic:

How much deeper are WN's pockets compared to the likes of, say, DL or UA (not even going to ask about AA, as a.net seems to think AA is a dead man walking right now)? How long can they burn cash keeping the lights on and running mostly empty flights from smaller stations versus their competitors?


They have far and away the deepest pocket in terms of cash position and burn rate. They also have the lowest debt to equity ratio. In fact, they have more cash than debt right now. They are so far ahead of the field in cash position that they have been using that to pick up market share.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
WN also is willing to back out of markets. They have a presence in Seattle, but less than before. They seem to have decided to let Alaska and Delta fight it out, and remain a profitable(?) third place presence.

They don't need to be strongest everywhere

wnflyguy wrote:
WN like every other airline is trying to keep the lights on. It's also trying to keep it's track record of not having to laying off or force pay-cuts. During every downturn in the economy WN has always expanded to find ways to increase revenue.
Using SNA as a example it saw opportunity after 9/11 to gain marketshare as others pulled back which paid off during the downturn.
Yes it had to give slots back as others turned around over time but the gamble paid off.
Instead of parking aircraft during the first mini recession WN decided it was time to finally add DEN and opened MKE.
During the down times WN has always made decisions to make moves to keep revenue coming in. Yes this pandemic is horrible but it can either scale back to nothing and furlough thousands adding to the unemployment numbers. Or it can be nimble and carefully balance it's stability and grow it's revenue to keep It's people employed.
Ya I know it's sucks for UA,AA and DL But WN treats it's employees as an Cherished asset vs a sliding number you can just cut on a whim.

Flyguy


I'm sure more SNA slots will go back to WN this time around.

I'm sure they will pick up more LGA slots this time around too. It would be interesting to see where WN pressures competitors this time around.

To me, DEN and PHX are obvious places. LAX is an obvious place for them to seek additional slots. Same with SFO. Aside from that, PHL could be a good place to attack if AA does a lot of cuts there.

If they really want to eliminate competition and protect themselves against ULCC at MCO/LAS/MSY, then they can merge with one of NK and F9.
 
chicawgo
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 6:26 pm

Well my anecdotal evidence seems to point to it being true as well. I’m flying phx-chi tomorrow. UA had 1, AA with huge hub to hub had only 3, and WN had 4. With better times. $249 ow and I took WN whereas I would normally want to earn miles on UA or AA.
 
Lootess
Posts: 490
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 6:36 pm

It's not as easy for WN to retract since they don't operate the usual hub-spoke model, their model makes that 50% more logical. Come September we'll know how smart these decisions are when payroll support ends. If travel continues to rebound they should be okay and get to revenue neutral.

AA747123 wrote:
Southwest knows what they are doing, they have never lost money in their history. I am sure they will post a profit on the second quarter.


So far off of reality, since they already lost money in Q1, and they are still burning $30 million a day.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3627
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 7:33 pm

panamair wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
Southwest knows what they are doing, they have never lost money in their history. I am sure they will post a profit on the second quarter.


What are you talking about? They just posted losses for Q1 2020:

http://investors.southwest.com/news-and ... -110107839


There is a difference between a Q1, A2, A3 or A4 loss & annual loss.
 
Jerseyguy
Posts: 2183
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:05 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 7:55 pm

Airlines slash prices and flood new competitive routes with unreasonable amounts of flights to force their competitor out of the market and then raise the price back up. Now that Southwest can do this they should. Its unfortunate that alot of people don't realize this and continue to fly on the airline that has the monopoly on the route. When WN used to fly EWR-AUS, I used to get $99-109 each way, if NK hadnt picked up the route UA would have raised the price back up. What I always found amusing was that UA used to match WN as Basic Economy, Let me see I can pay $99 and get free bag and free change fees or I can fly UA pay an additional $35 for my bag and not be able to change the ticket for any price.

I'd love to see WN back in EWR but only they know if thats a good move in the current climate.
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4352
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:17 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 8:10 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
They should try to kill off F9 and NK (either buying them or driving them out of business). In re: slots, legacies will not make those available without going bankrupt first. WN might be able to get slots from B6, F9 or NK if they need cash and sell them.

They should not, and if they try, they should be blocked! Most markets outside the largest cities were already not very competitive as it was, the last thing we need is an airline taking advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime event to kill off the competition. In the name of maintaining long-term competition, I'd be fine with accepting government intervention in the market I would have never otherwise supported if that is what it takes to keep Frontier, Spirit or Sun Country alive for a reasonable period. It may reeks of government picking winners (or more to the point picking not-losers) and totally unacceptable, except, in my opinion, in these times.

If Southwest kills off a competitor, only its shareholders win. This a recovery does not make, nor does it serve the economy in the short, medium, or long runs.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1773
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 8:38 pm

flybry wrote:
Does Southwest have a death wish?


No other airline is in a better position to grow in their core markets. Not saying the US3 will roll over, they can flex (Expensively) with higher gauge idle wide bodies for one thing WN cannot. But WN has flexibility to capture core O/D. 1 fleet type, common group of pilots and flight attendants. Seems like a recipe to grow the business.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 9:13 pm

bob75013 wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Playing devil's advocate, how applicable is the "Southwest Effect" over the next few months? I get that passenger numbers are on their way up, but how much latent traffic is there to actually be stimulated?


I can only talk about one route that I fly a lot: Dallas / Chicago

Looking at July, I can fly WN for $90 RT most days, but it costs me about $155-$170 on UA (and that is bottom of the barrel deep discount)-or $ 222 for economy.. Which airline is likely to get more people flying? It's called the Southwest effect.

And traffic is coming back. I flew DEN//DAL yesterday on a 738 that hit capacity control: 117 pax. .


Assuming that there are people flying because of the price who otherwise wouldn't and not just people who were planning to fly regardless of WN's pricing. That's the whole idea of the Southwest Effect: Offering lower fares to draw people who otherwise would've stayed home.

Obviously it isn't the easiest thing to prove either way, but I don't know if we're at that point yet, especially with so many destinations closed/limited.
 
flybry
Posts: 161
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:26 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 9:28 pm

Jerseyguy wrote:
Airlines slash prices and flood new competitive routes with unreasonable amounts of flights to force their competitor out of the market and then raise the price back up. Now that Southwest can do this they should. Its unfortunate that alot of people don't realize this and continue to fly on the airline that has the monopoly on the route. When WN used to fly EWR-AUS, I used to get $99-109 each way, if NK hadnt picked up the route UA would have raised the price back up. What I always found amusing was that UA used to match WN as Basic Economy, Let me see I can pay $99 and get free bag and free change fees or I can fly UA pay an additional $35 for my bag and not be able to change the ticket for any price.

I'd love to see WN back in EWR but only they know if thats a good move in the current climate.


I agree!!
I’m so sad Southwest left Newark. It gave United a monopoly on EWR-DEN until Frontier came in with just 1 flight a day. I wish Southwest would return to EWR.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2002
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 10:10 pm

As for WN buying anyone? This is not the right time because this pandemic fallout going to give WN a lot of organic growth opportunities for a easy 2 to 3 yrs.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 10:59 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
As for WN buying anyone? This is not the right time because this pandemic fallout going to give WN a lot of organic growth opportunities for a easy 2 to 3 yrs.

Flyguy


Agree re WN not acquiring another airline.

However, how is WN going to go after “a lot of growth opportunities”? Where are these growth opportunities? As traffic comes back, what is WN going to give up to serve all these opportunities? Where are the aircraft coming from? What in the pre-COVID-19 network gets left behind so that these new opportunities can be served?

I do not buy into this “We were flying when no one else was, so now come fly with us” strategy that people on here are touting. WN will be opportunistic in frequencies and new routes just like any good competitive company should be. If they see a competitor underserving a market they will go after it as long as it doesn’t displace another one. And they will have an eye to the future. They are not going to go into a market selling $39 fares if they know the market in two years will not be able to achieve higher fare price points. WN is no longer the company it was. Low fares are a teaser; it wants to offer just as many seats at those low price points as it has to to 1) support the brand image and 2) fill any seats it statistically believes would otherwise go out empty. Ultimately, WN wants to attract higher fare Y customers just like their competitors and since they give up revenue on change and baggage fees they have even more incentive to tightly manage that revenue stream (as well as the cost side).

WN’s focus on maintaining a simple business model and relentless cost efficiency will position itself to take advantage of unique opportunities. But the notion that WN is going to take over and put everyone else out of business is just nonsense.
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat May 23, 2020 11:01 pm

airzona11 wrote:
flybry wrote:
Does Southwest have a death wish?


No other airline is in a better position to grow in their core markets. Not saying the US3 will roll over, they can flex (Expensively) with higher gauge idle wide bodies for one thing WN cannot. But WN has flexibility to capture core O/D. 1 fleet type, common group of pilots and flight attendants. Seems like a recipe to grow the business.



With what? What gives in return?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun May 24, 2020 12:00 am

flybry wrote:
Jerseyguy wrote:
Airlines slash prices and flood new competitive routes with unreasonable amounts of flights to force their competitor out of the market and then raise the price back up. Now that Southwest can do this they should. Its unfortunate that alot of people don't realize this and continue to fly on the airline that has the monopoly on the route. When WN used to fly EWR-AUS, I used to get $99-109 each way, if NK hadnt picked up the route UA would have raised the price back up. What I always found amusing was that UA used to match WN as Basic Economy, Let me see I can pay $99 and get free bag and free change fees or I can fly UA pay an additional $35 for my bag and not be able to change the ticket for any price.

I'd love to see WN back in EWR but only they know if thats a good move in the current climate.


I agree!!
I’m so sad Southwest left Newark. It gave United a monopoly on EWR-DEN until Frontier came in with just 1 flight a day. I wish Southwest would return to EWR.


I think long term, WN leaving EWR will actually be good for competition at EWR. WN was never really competitive on most of those routes out of EWR. WN leaving + COVID caused reductions will allow B6 and ULCCs to really expand at EWR. B6 had been slot/gate constrained at EWR for a long time and that's not an issue anymore. On many routes, B6 gets just as high yield at EWR as JFK and higher than at LGA. I think you will see over time, B6 will provide real competition to UA as it adds more routes out of EWR over the next few years. And on a lot of remaining routes, NK/F9 will provide sustainable long fare competition that was simply unsustainable for WN.

WN will get more slots at LGA and not return to EWR.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20282
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun May 24, 2020 12:08 am

gaystudpilot wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
flybry wrote:
Does Southwest have a death wish?


No other airline is in a better position to grow in their core markets. Not saying the US3 will roll over, they can flex (Expensively) with higher gauge idle wide bodies for one thing WN cannot. But WN has flexibility to capture core O/D. 1 fleet type, common group of pilots and flight attendants. Seems like a recipe to grow the business.



With what? What gives in return?

You ask with what. For WN, they'll have the MAX to grow with. Southwest is deploying more of their fleet to seed the market.

What gives is the competitions balance sheet. Now is not the time to be a high cost provider as leisure comes back first.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
User avatar
OzarkD9S
Posts: 5717
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun May 24, 2020 1:13 am

StrandedAtMKG wrote:

WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Then why did WN execs go to PSA and study their concept? Give credit where credit is due...PSA.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
UA735WL
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:08 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun May 24, 2020 1:43 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
StrandedAtMKG wrote:

WN is the original LCC. They invented it. We wouldn't even have the concept of an LCC without WN.


Then why did WN execs go to PSA and study their concept? Give credit where credit is due...PSA.



To be fair, WN did pioneer the homogeneous fleet model (PSA did not).
"One test is worth a thousand expert opinions" -Tex Johnston
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2002
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun May 24, 2020 2:26 am

gaystudpilot wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
As for WN buying anyone? This is not the right time because this pandemic fallout going to give WN a lot of organic growth opportunities for a easy 2 to 3 yrs.

Flyguy


Agree re WN not acquiring another airline.

However, how is WN going to go after “a lot of growth opportunities”? Where are these growth opportunities? As traffic comes back, what is WN going to give up to serve all these opportunities? Where are the aircraft coming from? What in the pre-COVID-19 network gets left behind so that these new opportunities can be served?

I do not buy into this “We were flying when no one else was, so now come fly with us” strategy that people on here are touting. WN will be opportunistic in frequencies and new routes just like any good competitive company should be. If they see a competitor underserving a market they will go after it as long as it doesn’t displace another one. And they will have an eye to the future. They are not going to go into a market selling $39 fares if they know the market in two years will not be able to achieve higher fare price points. WN is no longer the company it was. Low fares are a teaser; it wants to offer just as many seats at those low price points as it has to to 1) support the brand image and 2) fill any seats it statistically believes would otherwise go out empty. Ultimately, WN wants to attract higher fare Y customers just like their competitors and since they give up revenue on change and baggage fees they have even more incentive to tightly manage that revenue stream (as well as the cost side).

WN’s focus on maintaining a simple business model and relentless cost efficiency will position itself to take advantage of unique opportunities. But the notion that WN is going to take over and put everyone else out of business is just nonsense.


I think WN with the covid 19 recovery will follow something along the lines of hurricane Katrina aftermath. Instead of building up MSY. They grew it gradually with used extra aircraft to expand other market opportunities.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun May 24, 2020 2:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
airzona11 wrote:

No other airline is in a better position to grow in their core markets. Not saying the US3 will roll over, they can flex (Expensively) with higher gauge idle wide bodies for one thing WN cannot. But WN has flexibility to capture core O/D. 1 fleet type, common group of pilots and flight attendants. Seems like a recipe to grow the business.



With what? What gives in return?

You ask with what. For WN, they'll have the MAX to grow with. Southwest is deploying more of their fleet to seed the market.

What gives is the competitions balance sheet. Now is not the time to be a high cost provider as leisure comes back first.

Lightsaber


Point missed. What gives within WN network?

Any *new* opportunities to take advantage of current market conditions compete with returning other portions of the network as demand increases. Since the MAX is still grounded, at some point the analysis is threeway among *new* opportunities, returning routes/frequencies and, don’t forget, plans WN already had for growth.

So, if WN wants to take advantage of *new* opportunities, eventually something will have to give within its network. Unless you think those grounded MAX’s are going to suddenly return to the skies.
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