WN will gain share. We are all seeing the wisdom of LUV's one aircraft business model in this downturn, something many complex fleet loving ANet folks downplay constantly. Many of WN's competitors can't simplify their fleets fast enough. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Certainly. But gaining share is not necessarily the same as gaining volume. They will absolutely be larger relative to DL, AA, UA, et al. But the actual ASMs will be smaller.
I totally disagree with you on business travel. Business travel will probably take a long time to return to 2019 levels, primarily because there was some unnecessary travel (boondoggles) in the past. But most business travel was needed. Sales visits, especially initial ones and annual reviews need to be in person. Are you going to spend millions of dollars with a new supplier you have never met?
I certainly understand that people disagree. But that is very often the case where paradigm shifts are concerned. We need to remember that most, if not all, companies exist quarter by quarter. Suddenly reintroducing a cost they've been living without —with increasing comfort— is really a non-starter.
As for spending money on suppliers you have not met? That is not even new, and with things like E-signatures making extraordinary gains in acceptance, it was always only a matter of time before that replaced in-person meets. This is not even limited to long distance either. Transactions involving only city or county wide distances were already going that way too.
In my company's case, we have even purchased properties that way; properties that have only
ever been visited by locally employed personnel too. I would have personally seen that as ridiculous as recently as five years ago. But it is happening.
I have now done several quarterly reviews on Skype and Teams and on the plus side they are shorter meetings, but they are also far less productive meetings. Most of my travel is for Technical Field Service, try that on Zoom or Teams and let me know how it goes.
Have done. And very easily. And as for items requiring hands on for that, hiring locally and temporarily makes a lot more sense than utilizing roving personnel. In my experience, these things generally get easier, in terms of finding the most productive work-arounds as time goes by.
What a lot of travelers are not seeing here —likely and not unreasonably for reasons of personal interest— is that your employer really does not care
about your concerns there. They will see that what ever "difficulties" people have with remote work are likely resulting more from user adaptation issues than anything structural to the system itself. What they do
care about is the three to five times an average salary it costs to maintain an active traveling staff per capita.
There is already enough pressure to reduce those costs as it is. But when a company starts losing clients because they think clients value handshakes more than saving 20 -25% of a given cost, well, you see where this is going. FWIW, I do not see this as something caused
by the current events so much as catalyzed by them. These advancements were inevitable.
And even with all that, there is still as much potential for productivity loss with in-person travel as well. That was fine in the past, but trying to justify that in the future will present a challenge.
I am certain there will still be an amount of business travel after this. After all, horses still remain in an age dominated by auto-traffic. But it will not be what it was.
As it pertains here, I do agree that apart from NK, WN is by far the best positioned to deal with these evolutions. Fleet simplicity helps, but the real story is a strongly flexible network and the fact that they have always
balanced leisure vs business pretty well for just about every route they operate.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."