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CRJ5000
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:00 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2020/06/10/with-a-strong-balance-sheet-and-finally-the-737-max-southwest-is-ready-to-clobber-rival-airlines/
another article on this topic. WN is digging in for a long fare war to take advantage of legacy weakness with a lot of cash in hand. I still don't expect them to operate "full schedule" at end of the year, but who knows. It looks like they are going to operate 65% schedule in the fall, which is already quite impressive for an airline of their size.

WN is seeing that if they don't bring flights back fast, ULCCs will take over those market share.

I still think WN will make a buyout bid on either NK or F9 to take out competition.


I have wondered about a buyout myself... with last years news of WN possibly looking into an Airbus subfleet and seriously depressed valuations (Can't speak for F9 as privately held, but I assume it's in line with NK) it seems like at least a possibility. Obviously they won't do it while still burning money, but if they can somehow return to profitability and are still sitting on a good chunk of cash at that point, it might be the perfect opportunity.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
United1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


Every airline has said capping capacity is a very near-term solution, but even if it does get extended out, WN is the best positioned to compete in a low LF world.

Remember even though yield is down, Fuel/CapEX/Labor/Food is also down significantly, therefore WN could theoretically get fairly close to break even on their flights (at least compared to the US3)
Image


Yield is not just down it's utterly in the gutter...a few anecdotal points about that were even in this thread. A WN flyer was bragging about how he picked WN over UA on DAL-MDW because WNs fare was $90 roundtrip. The actual revenue to WN will be less if that fare includes taxes and fees but let's assume it's all revenue. That works out to 5.6 cents a mile. Do you think WN can generate a profit at that yield even flying 100% load factors?


Yes I do, for the US3 the yield situation is significantly worse than WN. Remember while people "luv" to hate on WN for being the low cost carrier that doesn't actually offer low fares, WN is actually used to competing on ULCC fares, given their enormous presence in places like MCO, FLL, LAS, e.t.c.

This is from 2019, and as you can see average fares aren't way higher than what G4 is pricing.
Image

If you go by the analysis done in the break-even study I referenced above:

In the example they use, each flight would cost $26,741, and 100% load would be $36,889 in revenue

Assuming a conservative cost savings of 15% per flight, the new cost per flight would be $22,730, so essentially even with a 40% reduction in revenue per flight (aggressively low average fare of $93) they would still be close to break-even.
https://floridapanhandle.com/airline-pr ... st&seats=0


Confirms my originally thinking, "Kelly won’t make a prediction yet. But if, as he expects, Southwest can get back to break even operations on a cash basis by the fourth quarter, when he’s still expecting to fill only 60% of the carrier’s available seats by offering really low fares"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... bf3367ac8b

tphuang wrote:
I still think WN will make a buyout bid on either NK or F9 to take out competition.


Why would either agree to that?
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ScottB
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I still think WN will make a buyout bid on either NK or F9 to take out competition.


Why would either agree to that?


I don't think they'll try to buy NK or F9 (I think their sights are set higher) but if you're the shareholders behind NK or private equity behind F9 maybe you take the money and run. Apart from seniority considerations, it's a win for the front line employees who'd end up with a pay bump.

Flflyer83 wrote:
Quite a few of the flights are at max capacity with additional flights being added close in to accommodate more passengers. Of course, there are quite a few routes that still have 40-50 passengers on each flight and a couple with less than that.


The return of the MAX probably ends up cutting operating cash burn vs the 73G while offering around 20 more seats if they're still limiting bookings to 67%.

ctrabs0114 wrote:
Somebody must know something that the rest of the aviation community doesn't. I know I had been hearing reports that Boeing was making progress on getting the MAX re-certified, though I haven't heard anything official.


CNBC reported yesterday that Boeing is planning a recertification flight(s) at the end of this month: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/boeing- ... -june.html

FLALEFTY wrote:
2) FLL's route cuts are likely permanent. They are pulling back from their Carribean and Central American routes and probably won't restore them. The other FLL routes cut were designed to feed those international flights. Strategically, WN works best as a domestic airline.


Doubtful. Fact is that we don't know how long there will be restrictions on travel in international markets, and it's probable that passengers will be leery of exiting the country until the spectre of current or future CoViD-related travel restrictions is gone. And FWIW, most or all predictions are for domestic travel to recover first, so it makes the most sense to focus resources in domestic markets until there's greater demand for international travel.

Also, we know that WN is planning to pressure competitors in markets like DEN and PHX -- so maybe they do deemphasize a market like FLL for now while international traffic is weak. But I don't think that necessarily means they're gone for good. In leisure-focused markets there's a lot less value in brand loyalty.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:40 pm

ScottB wrote:

I don't think they'll try to buy NK or F9 (I think their sights are set higher) but if you're the shareholders behind NK or private equity behind F9 maybe you take the money and run. Apart from seniority considerations, it's a win for the front line employees who'd end up with a pay bump.



If there were a buyout, I think F9 or NK makes the most sense because the value right now is significantly depressed and much lower than other options, WN has expressed interest in diversifying their fleet, and most of all, I think F9/NK make the most sense because their brand isn't really worth all that much. You still get a sizable Airbus fleet, eliminate a competitor known for driving fares way down, and most of all, you aren't paying a huge premium for a brand that they would just be getting rid of.
Airlines like B6/AS have a significant premium attached to their brand. Why pay extra for that?
I still don't think there is necessarily going to be a buyout, but if there is, I think those are the most logical candidates.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:07 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
ScottB wrote:

I don't think they'll try to buy NK or F9 (I think their sights are set higher) but if you're the shareholders behind NK or private equity behind F9 maybe you take the money and run. Apart from seniority considerations, it's a win for the front line employees who'd end up with a pay bump.



If there were a buyout, I think F9 or NK makes the most sense because the value right now is significantly depressed and much lower than other options, WN has expressed interest in diversifying their fleet, and most of all, I think F9/NK make the most sense because their brand isn't really worth all that much. You still get a sizable Airbus fleet, eliminate a competitor known for driving fares way down, and most of all, you aren't paying a huge premium for a brand that they would just be getting rid of.
Airlines like B6/AS have a significant premium attached to their brand. Why pay extra for that?
I still don't think there is necessarily going to be a buyout, but if there is, I think those are the most logical candidates.


They aren't interested: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30

Doesn't make much sense for them to agree to a buy out right now at these prices anyway, especially since NK will come out of this downturn in a stronger position relative to the industry.

Any acquisition will likely mean a reduction in headcount, so not really a win for F9 or NK employees either

In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap
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ScottB
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:05 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
If there were a buyout, I think F9 or NK makes the most sense because the value right now is significantly depressed and much lower than other options, WN has expressed interest in diversifying their fleet, and most of all, I think F9/NK make the most sense because their brand isn't really worth all that much. You still get a sizable Airbus fleet, eliminate a competitor known for driving fares way down, and most of all, you aren't paying a huge premium for a brand that they would just be getting rid of.
Airlines like B6/AS have a significant premium attached to their brand. Why pay extra for that?
I still don't think there is necessarily going to be a buyout, but if there is, I think those are the most logical candidates.


B6 doesn't have a premium attached to the brand. JBLU is trading for about 70% of book value. They have a far more valuable portfolio of assets than NK (slots and gates at JFK, LGA, DCA, BOS) and the network is essentially complementary to WN. JBLU also owns over twice as many aircraft as SAVE and most of their leased aircraft are part of the E190 fleet which is leaving.

Buying either NK or F9 doesn't really eliminate competition, either; both have shown themselves to be very willing to enter and exit markets quickly in response to opportunities. If you buy NK then F9 enters their more successful markets. B6, at JFK and BOS, is far better-insulated from incursions by competitors. How many times have certain posters reminded us that Delta didn't have enough gates at BOS to build an effective competing hub there?

And FWIW WN has expressed openness to diversifying the fleet if there were a compelling reason to do so; that is very different from being interested in diversifying the fleet. The MAX 8 beats the A320neo on fuel burn per passenger and WN's core short-haul competence is far from the optimum mission profile for the A321neo. IMO we'd only see WN move to a mixed fleet long-term if Boeing were unwilling or unable to supply a competitive aircraft on reasonable terms.

Midwestindy wrote:
In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


You vastly overestimate the amount of overlap between the two; further, they generally overlap in markets with few, if any, barriers to entry.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:12 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


On how many non-stop airport pairs do they overlap?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:51 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


On how many non-stop airport pairs do they overlap?


All NK's major stations are in markets where WN has a focus city, except for DTW.

All NK’s routes from LAS have WN competition, except for PHL & BOS.

All NK’s routes from BWI have WN competition, expect for MYR & SAL

Lots of overlap in FLL, MCO, ORD/MDW, DFW/DAL, e.t.c.

ScottB wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:
In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


You vastly overestimate the amount of overlap between the two; further, they generally overlap in markets with few, if any, barriers to entry.


More than 75% of NK's ASMs overlap with WN

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-so ... 1569250390
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BNAMealer
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:00 am

Midwestindy wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
ScottB wrote:

I don't think they'll try to buy NK or F9 (I think their sights are set higher) but if you're the shareholders behind NK or private equity behind F9 maybe you take the money and run. Apart from seniority considerations, it's a win for the front line employees who'd end up with a pay bump.



If there were a buyout, I think F9 or NK makes the most sense because the value right now is significantly depressed and much lower than other options, WN has expressed interest in diversifying their fleet, and most of all, I think F9/NK make the most sense because their brand isn't really worth all that much. You still get a sizable Airbus fleet, eliminate a competitor known for driving fares way down, and most of all, you aren't paying a huge premium for a brand that they would just be getting rid of.
Airlines like B6/AS have a significant premium attached to their brand. Why pay extra for that?
I still don't think there is necessarily going to be a buyout, but if there is, I think those are the most logical candidates.


They aren't interested: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30

Doesn't make much sense for them to agree to a buy out right now at these prices anyway, especially since NK will come out of this downturn in a stronger position relative to the industry.

Any acquisition will likely mean a reduction in headcount, so not really a win for F9 or NK employees either

In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


I don’t see WN buying either due to their unwillingness to take on Airbus aircraft, but if they did, F9 would be the more logical partner IMO. Buying F9 would eliminate their DEN hub, which will be WN’s biggest station in a few years. Plus, they could get bigger at other bases such as MCO, LAS.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:12 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


On how many non-stop airport pairs do they overlap?


All NK's major stations are in markets where WN has a focus city, except for DTW.

All NK’s routes from LAS have WN competition, except for PHL & BOS.

All NK’s routes from BWI have WN competition, expect for MYR & SAL

Lots of overlap in FLL, MCO, ORD/MDW, DFW/DAL, e.t.c.

ScottB wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:
In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


You vastly overestimate the amount of overlap between the two; further, they generally overlap in markets with few, if any, barriers to entry.


More than 75% of NK's ASMs overlap with WN

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-so ... 1569250390


exactly, NK provides WN plenty of competition. If anything, NK is the biggest threat facing WN coming out of this. After that, F9 provides plenty of competition and also additional gates at DEN.

Midwestindy wrote:
They aren't interested: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30

Doesn't make much sense for them to agree to a buy out right now at these prices anyway, especially since NK will come out of this downturn in a stronger position relative to the industry.

Any acquisition will likely mean a reduction in headcount, so not really a win for F9 or NK employees either

In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


Of course they didn't want a hostile takeover when all the airline stocks were at rock bottom prices. If WN puts in a bid at where NK was trading at prior to the start of COVID, that will get a lot of people interested.

My company has done multiple successful hostile takeover attempts which have resulted in very large headcount reduction of merged operation. At end of the day, the board is answering to the shareholders, not its employees. And once merger completes, all the heads of the other company will walk away with huge golden parachute. And in this case, the front line crew members will get a much better contract with WN. The non-unionized office workers don't get a say in the matter.

DOJ allowed the Airtran merger to go through. I don't see why this would not be possible if they are willing to make some concessions.
 
jayunited
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:53 am

tphuang wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2020/06/10/with-a-strong-balance-sheet-and-finally-the-737-max-southwest-is-ready-to-clobber-rival-airlines/
another article on this topic. WN is digging in for a long fare war to take advantage of legacy weakness with a lot of cash in hand. I still don't expect them to operate "full schedule" at end of the year, but who knows. It looks like they are going to operate 65% schedule in the fall, which is already quite impressive for an airline of their size.

WN is seeing that if they don't bring flights back fast, ULCCs will take over those market share.

I still think WN will make a buyout bid on either NK or F9 to take out competition.


WN isn't a LCC at all. While they are in a much better financial situations than the US3 a prolonged fare ware would inevitable hurt WN. On one hand WN wants to press their advantage against the US3 but at the same time they have to watch their back because the true LCCs and ULCCs are coming for WN.

WN can't be so focused on squeezing the US3 and getting involved in unnecessary fare wars with the US3 that they burn cash unnecessarily because fare wars cost money. While AA has decided to go at head to head with WN, and the LCCs/ULCCs for summer 2020, we are seeing a different summer 2020 strategy from DL and UA. We know most leisure travelers are not loyal to any one particular airline they are price sensitive customers who choose an airline based on affordability. With 2 of the US3 airlines deciding to hold back on capacity for summer 2020 it may appear as though WN is winning but could it all in the end end up being a mirage? Even though the recovery has begun we are still down over two million daily passengers in the US. When people talk about market share it is exciting but we have to put it into context. Is this a temporary lost of market share or is this lost more permanent? Both DL and UA are taking a conservative approach they are not flooding the leisure domestic market with capacity for summer 2020, because doing so only hurts themselves. I completely understand both DL and UA are walking a fine line one wrong move could be costly. By exercising restraint they risk losing money and market share in 2020 but is the lost permanent? However if DL and UA followed AA's lead added to many flights they might play right into WN's hand because the more unnecessary seats you have in the market the lower the yields. AA's aggressive strategy may work out for them but if all of the US3 airlines engaged at the same level as AA the blood bath would be worst than what it already is.

With 2 of the US3 airlines exercising restraint for summer 2020 WN has to be careful they don't erode yields in a prolonged fare war that the only beneficiaries are the true LCCs and ULCCs. While WN's cost are lower than the US3's, they are higher than LCCs/ULCCs and I can promise you the LCCs and ULCCs are just waiting for WN to make a mistake.

At some point in the future (maybe in 2 years) WN might decide it is in their interest to do a buyout bid to take out the competition, we will have to wait and see how it plays out.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:15 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

On how many non-stop airport pairs do they overlap?


All NK's major stations are in markets where WN has a focus city, except for DTW.

All NK’s routes from LAS have WN competition, except for PHL & BOS.

All NK’s routes from BWI have WN competition, expect for MYR & SAL

Lots of overlap in FLL, MCO, ORD/MDW, DFW/DAL, e.t.c.

ScottB wrote:



You vastly overestimate the amount of overlap between the two; further, they generally overlap in markets with few, if any, barriers to entry.


More than 75% of NK's ASMs overlap with WN

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-so ... 1569250390


exactly, NK provides WN plenty of competition. If anything, NK is the biggest threat facing WN coming out of this. After that, F9 provides plenty of competition and also additional gates at DEN.

Midwestindy wrote:
They aren't interested: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30

Doesn't make much sense for them to agree to a buy out right now at these prices anyway, especially since NK will come out of this downturn in a stronger position relative to the industry.

Any acquisition will likely mean a reduction in headcount, so not really a win for F9 or NK employees either

In addition, an acquisition would likely not be approved given how much WN and NK overlap


Of course they didn't want a hostile takeover when all the airline stocks were at rock bottom prices. If WN puts in a bid at where NK was trading at prior to the start of COVID, that will get a lot of people interested.

My company has done multiple successful hostile takeover attempts which have resulted in very large headcount reduction of merged operation. At end of the day, the board is answering to the shareholders, not its employees. And once merger completes, all the heads of the other company will walk away with huge golden parachute. And in this case, the front line crew members will get a much better contract with WN. The non-unionized office workers don't get a say in the matter.

DOJ allowed the Airtran merger to go through. I don't see why this would not be possible if they are willing to make some concessions.


My comment was directed at the poster who was saying a WN acquisition would be a win for front-line employees, I can't imagine a scenario where an airline acquisition in this environment doesn't involve some sort of lay offs

The AirTran merger was different, WN was much more Western centric, FL was obviously more eastern centric.

This is obviously much different: 9 out of NK's 10 largest airports overlap with WN focus cities, compared to 3-4 out 10 of FL's largest airports overlapping with WN focus cities (Q2 2010).
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737max8
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:26 am

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2020/06/10/with-a-strong-balance-sheet-and-finally-the-737-max-southwest-is-ready-to-clobber-rival-airlines/
another article on this topic. WN is digging in for a long fare war to take advantage of legacy weakness with a lot of cash in hand. I still don't expect them to operate "full schedule" at end of the year, but who knows. It looks like they are going to operate 65% schedule in the fall, which is already quite impressive for an airline of their size.

WN is seeing that if they don't bring flights back fast, ULCCs will take over those market share.

I still think WN will make a buyout bid on either NK or F9 to take out competition.


WN isn't a LCC at all. While they are in a much better financial situations than the US3 a prolonged fare ware would inevitable hurt WN. On one hand WN wants to press their advantage against the US3 but at the same time they have to watch their back because the true LCCs and ULCCs are coming for WN.

WN can't be so focused on squeezing the US3 and getting involved in unnecessary fare wars with the US3 that they burn cash unnecessarily because fare wars cost money. While AA has decided to go at head to head with WN, and the LCCs/ULCCs for summer 2020, we are seeing a different summer 2020 strategy from DL and UA. We know most leisure travelers are not loyal to any one particular airline they are price sensitive customers who choose an airline based on affordability. With 2 of the US3 airlines deciding to hold back on capacity for summer 2020 it may appear as though WN is winning but could it all in the end end up being a mirage? Even though the recovery has begun we are still down over two million daily passengers in the US. When people talk about market share it is exciting but we have to put it into context. Is this a temporary lost of market share or is this lost more permanent? Both DL and UA are taking a conservative approach they are not flooding the leisure domestic market with capacity for summer 2020, because doing so only hurts themselves. I completely understand both DL and UA are walking a fine line one wrong move could be costly. By exercising restraint they risk losing money and market share in 2020 but is the lost permanent? However if DL and UA followed AA's lead added to many flights they might play right into WN's hand because the more unnecessary seats you have in the market the lower the yields. AA's aggressive strategy may work out for them but if all of the US3 airlines engaged at the same level as AA the blood bath would be worst than what it already is.

With 2 of the US3 airlines exercising restraint for summer 2020 WN has to be careful they don't erode yields in a prolonged fare war that the only beneficiaries are the true LCCs and ULCCs. While WN's cost are lower than the US3's, they are higher than LCCs/ULCCs and I can promise you the LCCs and ULCCs are just waiting for WN to make a mistake.

At some point in the future (maybe in 2 years) WN might decide it is in their interest to do a buyout bid to take out the competition, we will have to wait and see how it plays out.


If WN is able to break even or make a profit by Q4 and the other carriers don't until many quarters down the road, I would consider than winning.

Everyone always doubts WN, but the results speak for themselves. Gary is a fierce competitor and he knows what he is doing.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:58 pm

WN is not buying anyone unless the MAX grounding goes into 2021/22.
This would probably force their hand.

My view.
F9 or Allegiant both bring nothing but a huge unreliable dart boards with their networks.

NK brings FLL and more international both which aren't a huge priority in the Post Covid lockdown environment. Silver lining it wipes out competition in LAS.

AlaskaAir While it would Brings a huge expansion in SEA,PDX and SFO. LAX,SAN and SJC would all probably just see the overlapped network eliminated to raise revenue with less competition now in the market.
As far as AS Alaska network I don't see WN handling the schedule as efficient as AS does now.
If you think WN dismantled FL network in ATL horribly AS Alaska network would be 1000times worse.

Then there's Horizon network.
All Skywest flying would stop.
And all RJ flying would stop.
Horizon prop flying would be broken down into
Small SEA feed,Hawaii inter island flying and ANC inter state flying.

JetBlue.
Brings very market little overlap.
Huge Market share gains in NY,DC,BOS and FLL.
Like FL it eliminates competition but adds Billions more profit in the last market shares missing in WN network. Moves them up to a solid one or two in NYC,BOS,DCA And FLL.

But I don't see WN making any play for another airline unless JetBlue or Spirit we're either for sale or making a bid to Merger with each other. Like AS did with VX block buying to stop someone else getting stronger.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
sprxUSA
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:39 pm

Naw, take over AA and get all dallas traffic and international locations. Just see if they (AA) go into BK then get them for a song...… ;)
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:52 pm

In small leisure markets like PNS, it's amazing how aggressive WN is being already.

WN has seven departures from PNS today (3x DAL, 3x BNA, 1x HOU)...a typical Friday last June was only 4x (1x DAL, 2x BNA and 1x HOU). Many of these are extra segments, not originally planned for and I realized WN is capping capacity causing some of this.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:15 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
In small leisure markets like PNS, it's amazing how aggressive WN is being already.

WN has seven departures from PNS today (3x DAL, 3x BNA, 1x HOU)...a typical Friday last June was only 4x (1x DAL, 2x BNA and 1x HOU). Many of these are extra segments, not originally planned for and I realized WN is capping capacity causing some of this.


Yeah, I ended up getting on an extra section that was added a couple weeks ago out of FLL because the original flight was over capacity. Even the extra section nearly filled up (To the seat cap, at least) Promising, but I guess we'll see once all the extra capacity comes from other airlines next month.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:42 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
My view.
F9 or Allegiant both bring nothing but a huge unreliable dart boards with their networks.


While I agree that there are many F9 and G4 nonstop routes that would probably be dropped by WN in the event of a WN-F9 or WN-G4 merger, there are some F9 or G4 nonstop routes that might be viable on WN subsequent to a WN-F9 or WN-G4 merger.

In the event of an WN-F9 merger, WN would likely inherit a few F9 nonstop routes such as CVG-RSW, CVG-LAS, and DEN-DCA that would probably be kept by WN following a WN-F9 merger. There are also a few additional U.S. airports currently served by F9 but not by WN such as TYS, MIA, SRQ, and SYR that might possibly gain WN service in the event of a WN-F9 merger. There are also a few other F9 nonstop routes such as CLE-SEA, LAX-MCO, and ONT-MCO that might possibly be kept by WN in the event of a WN-F9 merger.

While many G4 routes would be dropped by WN in the event of a WN-G4 merger, there are some G4 nonstop routes that WN might keep in the event of a WN-G4 merger such as CHS-CMH (moved over from LCK), CHS-IND, CHS-SDF, CHS-PIT, CVG-AUS, CVG-LAS, CVG-MSY, BNA-DSM, BNA-GRR, BNA-RIC, and BNA-TUL.

Most of the nonstop routes that WN would be inheriting through a WN-F9 or WN-G4 merger could be added by WN without merging with F9, G4, or another airline.

wnflyguy wrote:
AlaskaAir While it would Brings a huge expansion in SEA,PDX and SFO. LAX,SAN and SJC would all probably just see the overlapped network eliminated to raise revenue with less competition now in the market.
As far as AS Alaska network I don't see WN handling the schedule as efficient as AS does now.
If you think WN dismantled FL network in ATL horribly AS Alaska network would be 1000times worse.


One big difference between the WN-FL merger and a WN-AS merger is that ATL is the main hub for DL whereas SEA is a smaller DL hub that had only been around for 6 years. Another big difference is that STL currently has nonstop service out of SEA on WN but not on DL. WN had also served the SEA market for over 26 years, whereas WN did not serve ATL prior to the WN-FL merger.

There are also some domestic destinations outside of the Northwest or West Coast that have nonstop service out of SEA on AS but not on DL such as ABQ, BWI, CHS, CMH, DAL, DFW, ELP, IAH, OKC, OMA, PHL, PIT, SAT, DCA, and ICT.

In the event of a WN-AS merger, WN might possibly keep intra-Alaska routes that can support service on 737 aircraft with WN already serving some smaller markets in Hawaii, Texas, and the Florida Panhandle. WN had previously considered adding service to ANC, and WN had also said that ANC is one of the top U.S. markets not served by WN.

While there are some AS nonstop routes out of SEA to DL hub airports, East Coast destinations, or destinations not currently served by WN that might get dropped by WN in the event of a WN-AS merger, SEA would likely gain nonstop service to some additional destinations in Hawaii, the Midwest, and the South on WN if a WN-AS merger did happen.

AS's SEA hub is also bigger than any WN station, including its largest focus cities at MDW, DEN, and BWI. AS's SEA hub is also the largest non-US3 hub in the U.S.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5136
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:59 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
FlyPNS1 wrote:
In small leisure markets like PNS, it's amazing how aggressive WN is being already.

WN has seven departures from PNS today (3x DAL, 3x BNA, 1x HOU)...a typical Friday last June was only 4x (1x DAL, 2x BNA and 1x HOU). Many of these are extra segments, not originally planned for and I realized WN is capping capacity causing some of this.


Yeah, I ended up getting on an extra section that was added a couple weeks ago out of FLL because the original flight was over capacity. Even the extra section nearly filled up (To the seat cap, at least) Promising, but I guess we'll see once all the extra capacity comes from other airlines next month.


WN is pumping in capacity very quickly right now, looked into the July DEN schedule, and 11 routes are operating at higher frequency than they had originally scheduled before the coronavirus hit
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
incitatus
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:00 pm

sprxUSA wrote:
Naw, take over AA and get all dallas traffic and international locations. Just see if they (AA) go into BK then get them for a song...… ;)


WN taking over AA would be a disaster.
WN has never:
- Flown a red eye flight
- Flown a long haul flight
- Served a full meal onboard
- Flown a head of state, properly, or the Pope
- Had aircraft with multiple cabins
- Ran a large hub such as AA at CLT or even ORD
- Assigned a seat (!)
- Flown a wide-body
- Handled containers
- Had a large-scale cargo operation
- Had to craft a decent wine list
- Flown to Heathrow (yes, that is a skill), or Hong Kong and China
- Been in an airline alliance or a joint venture with another airline
- Run large scale codeshare or interline with foreign airlines
- Run premium services and lounges at airports

And it has not had a mixed fleet for the past 30 years.

There are those that feel USAirways cheapened American. Imagine a Southwest assimilation!
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 399
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:47 pm

But then again WN hasn't traveled the Ch 11 route either, and AA and friends have.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:01 pm

incitatus wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Naw, take over AA and get all dallas traffic and international locations. Just see if they (AA) go into BK then get them for a song...… ;)


WN taking over AA would be a disaster.


sprxUSA wrote:
But then again WN hasn't traveled the Ch 11 route either, and AA and friends have.


While I agree that WN merging or taking over AA would be a disaster, I agree that there are a few more nonstop domestic routes that could be added by WN out of DAL such as DAL-BUF, DAL-CVG, and DAL-BDL. There are also some nonstop routes that could be re-added by WN out of DAL such as DAL-BOS, DAL-CLE, DAL-HRL, DAL-JAX, DAL-PDX, and DAL-SEA.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:23 pm

I disagree that a low cost airline and a full service airline cannot belong in the same company, especially as they can share a lot of backroom operations, but in reality the "full service" component should be a smaller operation than the low cost component - maybe reminiscent of the UK operations in India's low cost airline market. or even thinking of the full service airline as being "first class" among the low cost airline "economy class". In other words, it's not stupid to think that WN should venture into offering a full service airline product. Maybe, it could offer a service similar to Delta One?
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:42 pm

jplatts wrote:

While I agree that WN merging or taking over AA would be a disaster, I agree that there are a few more nonstop domestic routes that could be added by WN out of DAL such as DAL-BUF, DAL-CVG, and DAL-BDL. There are also some nonstop routes that could be re-added by WN out of DAL such as DAL-BOS, DAL-CLE, DAL-HRL, DAL-JAX, DAL-PDX, and DAL-SEA.


And all WN needs is some more gates at DAL (good luck for now). More opportunities elsewhere at this point.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 1071
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:36 am

ScottB wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
Somebody must know something that the rest of the aviation community doesn't. I know I had been hearing reports that Boeing was making progress on getting the MAX re-certified, though I haven't heard anything official.


CNBC reported yesterday that Boeing is planning a recertification flight(s) at the end of this month: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/boeing- ... -june.html


That's reassuring across the board, not just for WN, but for other MAX 8 operators.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
jplatts
Posts: 3544
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:10 pm

There are some adds that could be made by WN at TPA in order to better compete against US3 carriers once demand for air travel to Florida returns, including the return of TPA-LAX nonstop service, the extension of TPA-MSP nonstop service to year-round, and the addition of TPA-CLT/OAK/SLC nonstop service as
(a) DL is still the only airline still serving LAX nonstop from TPA,
(b) DL is currently the only airline serving the Tampa Bay area nonstop from SLC,
(c) DL is currently the only airline having year-round nonstop service to MSP from TPA,
(d) AA is currently the only airline serving CLT nonstop from TPA (even though G4 does operate USA-PIE nonstop service between Greater Charlotte and the Tampa Bay Area),
(e) UA is currently the only airline serving the San Francisco Bay Area nonstop from TPA, and
(f) CLT, LAX, MSP, OAK, and SLC are located in 5 of the largest markets in the U.S. that do not currently have nonstop service out of TPA on WN.

WN also already has nonstop service out of CLT, LAX, MSP, OAK, and SLC to other major domestic leisure destinations, and there are also other LCCs/ULCCs that already have nonstop service out of CLT, LAX, MSP, SFO, and SLC to other Florida markets. WN also has a FF base in the Tampa Bay market to support nonstop service to CLT, LAX, MSP, OAK, and SLC from TPA, and there is also some leisure traffic to Utah from Florida to support TPA-SLC nonstop service on WN.
 
maps4ltd
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:17 pm

Jo8338 wrote:
The only think WN needs from AA is some 738’s on the cheap. I think that will happen when AA cancels leases in bankruptcy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... f595b85b7e
Delta Gold Medallion
 
jplatts
Posts: 3544
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:46 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
A few observations about WN's route map in the near future:

1) Keep an eye on STL. Operationally WN is maxed out at MDW, but they do need a bigger midwest hub east of Denver & north of Texas. STL has all the infrastructure to support a full WN hub.


There are a few airports such as AUS, DAL, LAX, BNA, SAN, and SEA where WN operates more departures per day per gate than MDW does.

WN was originally planning on operating 259 daily departures out of MDW this summer, but WN is operating fewer flights out of MDW due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN currently operates out of 33 gates at MDW, which comes out to an average 7.84 departures per day per gate when other stations such as DAL come out to an average of 11.11 departures per day per gate.

While there are some other individuals who have mentioned MDW being maxed out operationally, WN might possibly be able to expand MDW to 330 daily departures as WN operates more flights per gate per day at some other airports.

I had also previously mentioned that there are some more nonstop routes that could be added by WN out of MDW such as the return of MDW-BOI/GSP/SNA/GEG/TUL nonstop service and the addition of MDW-ELP/RIC nonstop service.

Is there anything unusual about MDW that would limit MDW to approximately 260-270 daily departures when WN is able to operate more flights per day per gate at some other airports?
 
WN732
Posts: 760
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:57 am

jplatts wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
A few observations about WN's route map in the near future:

1) Keep an eye on STL. Operationally WN is maxed out at MDW, but they do need a bigger midwest hub east of Denver & north of Texas. STL has all the infrastructure to support a full WN hub.


There are a few airports such as AUS, DAL, LAX, BNA, SAN, and SEA where WN operates more departures per day per gate than MDW does.

WN was originally planning on operating 259 daily departures out of MDW this summer, but WN is operating fewer flights out of MDW due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN currently operates out of 33 gates at MDW, which comes out to an average 7.84 departures per day per gate when other stations such as DAL come out to an average of 11.11 departures per day per gate.

While there are some other individuals who have mentioned MDW being maxed out operationally, WN might possibly be able to expand MDW to 330 daily departures as WN operates more flights per gate per day at some other airports.

I had also previously mentioned that there are some more nonstop routes that could be added by WN out of MDW such as the return of MDW-BOI/GSP/SNA/GEG/TUL nonstop service and the addition of MDW-ELP/RIC nonstop service.

Is there anything unusual about MDW that would limit MDW to approximately 260-270 daily departures when WN is able to operate more flights per day per gate at some other airports?


It would be really hard to fit all of that traffic in that tiny little footprint of an airport. Although they have the gate space for sure, that airport is physically constrained just due to its size. It's literally a 7000x7000x7000x7000 square.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5136
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:02 pm

2 years of liquidity *at current cash burn rate*

"Based on modestly improved passenger demand and bookings in July 2020, operating revenues are currently estimated to decrease, year-over-year, in the range of 65 to 70 percent; capacity is estimated to decrease in the range of 25 to 35 percent, year-over-year; and load factor is estimated to be in the range of 45 to 55 percent"

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... Update.pdf

Planning on 65-75% of their July schedule....
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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par13del
Posts: 10263
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:57 pm

incitatus wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Naw, take over AA and get all dallas traffic and international locations. Just see if they (AA) go into BK then get them for a song...… ;)


WN taking over AA would be a disaster.
WN has never:
- Flown a red eye flight
- Flown a long haul flight
- Served a full meal onboard
- Flown a head of state, properly, or the Pope
- Had aircraft with multiple cabins
- Ran a large hub such as AA at CLT or even ORD
- Assigned a seat (!)
- Flown a wide-body
- Handled containers
- Had a large-scale cargo operation
- Had to craft a decent wine list
- Flown to Heathrow (yes, that is a skill), or Hong Kong and China
- Been in an airline alliance or a joint venture with another airline
- Run large scale codeshare or interline with foreign airlines
- Run premium services and lounges at airports

And it has not had a mixed fleet for the past 30 years.

There are those that feel USAirways cheapened American. Imagine a Southwest assimilation!

If WN were to take over AA they would not need to do any of the functions listed, they would continue to be done by AA staff and a/c until WN either phases them out, convert the staff to WN staff or replace them with WN staff, no different than the last airline WN took over, their operations did not cease on day 1.
 
incitatus
Posts: 3371
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:09 pm

sprxUSA wrote:
But then again WN hasn't traveled the Ch 11 route either, and AA and friends have.


Southwest is a very successful business. There is no doubt about that. A big component of that success is simplicity.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
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SteveXC500
Posts: 578
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:38 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:53 pm

jplatts wrote:
There are some adds that could be made by WN at TPA in order to better compete against US3 carriers once demand for air travel to Florida returns, including the return of TPA-LAX nonstop service, the extension of TPA-MSP nonstop service to year-round, and the addition of TPA-CLT/OAK/SLC nonstop service as
(a) DL is still the only airline still serving LAX nonstop from TPA,
(b) DL is currently the only airline serving the Tampa Bay area nonstop from SLC,
(c) DL is currently the only airline having year-round nonstop service to MSP from TPA,
(d) AA is currently the only airline serving CLT nonstop from TPA (even though G4 does operate USA-PIE nonstop service between Greater Charlotte and the Tampa Bay Area),
(e) UA is currently the only airline serving the San Francisco Bay Area nonstop from TPA, and
(f) CLT, LAX, MSP, OAK, and SLC are located in 5 of the largest markets in the U.S. that do not currently have nonstop service out of TPA on WN.

WN also already has nonstop service out of CLT, LAX, MSP, OAK, and SLC to other major domestic leisure destinations, and there are also other LCCs/ULCCs that already have nonstop service out of CLT, LAX, MSP, SFO, and SLC to other Florida markets. WN also has a FF base in the Tampa Bay market to support nonstop service to CLT, LAX, MSP, OAK, and SLC from TPA, and there is also some leisure traffic to Utah from Florida to support TPA-SLC nonstop service on WN.


WN will not serve TPA-MSP more than just the current seasonal Spring Break timeframe. This route is held hostage by DL and SY. NK flies it Nov-May as well and I believe F9 has (not sure if they are next year). That's more than WN wants to go after at MSP, especially when they won't serve anything more than the 9 cities they currently do and of those, LAS isn't even one.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:12 pm

WN732 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
A few observations about WN's route map in the near future:

1) Keep an eye on STL. Operationally WN is maxed out at MDW, but they do need a bigger midwest hub east of Denver & north of Texas. STL has all the infrastructure to support a full WN hub.


There are a few airports such as AUS, DAL, LAX, BNA, SAN, and SEA where WN operates more departures per day per gate than MDW does.

WN was originally planning on operating 259 daily departures out of MDW this summer, but WN is operating fewer flights out of MDW due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN currently operates out of 33 gates at MDW, which comes out to an average 7.84 departures per day per gate when other stations such as DAL come out to an average of 11.11 departures per day per gate.

While there are some other individuals who have mentioned MDW being maxed out operationally, WN might possibly be able to expand MDW to 330 daily departures as WN operates more flights per gate per day at some other airports.

I had also previously mentioned that there are some more nonstop routes that could be added by WN out of MDW such as the return of MDW-BOI/GSP/SNA/GEG/TUL nonstop service and the addition of MDW-ELP/RIC nonstop service.

Is there anything unusual about MDW that would limit MDW to approximately 260-270 daily departures when WN is able to operate more flights per day per gate at some other airports?


It would be really hard to fit all of that traffic in that tiny little footprint of an airport. Although they have the gate space for sure, that airport is physically constrained just due to its size. It's literally a 7000x7000x7000x7000 square.


This is correct. MDW is constrained operationally, especially in Winter when runway contamination and short runway lengths make safe operations more challenging than they should be at a major hub airport. For example, WN passed on the Boeing 737-900ER because of its runway length demands were incompatible with MDW, even though they would gained a CASM advantage over using just the 800's.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6921
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:43 pm

WN732 wrote:
It would be really hard to fit all of that traffic in that tiny little footprint of an airport. Although they have the gate space for sure, that airport is physically constrained just due to its size. It's literally a 7000x7000x7000x7000 square.


It's more like a 5,280'x5,280' square. They only manage 6,500' because the runways are on the diagonals of the square plot.

Midwestindy wrote:
2 years of liquidity *at current cash burn rate*

"Based on modestly improved passenger demand and bookings in July 2020, operating revenues are currently estimated to decrease, year-over-year, in the range of 65 to 70 percent; capacity is estimated to decrease in the range of 25 to 35 percent, year-over-year; and load factor is estimated to be in the range of 45 to 55 percent"

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... Update.pdf

Planning on 65-75% of their July schedule....


Presumably they have moved to be somewhat more aggressive in restoring capacity precisely because demand is ahead of where they had forecast when they started slashing the schedules. The liquidity estimate has improved from 20 months to 24 months. What's going to be more critical is how the cash burn looks once the PSP money ends on September 30.

incitatus wrote:
WN taking over AA would be a disaster.


In spite of the hate WN management gets around here, there's no way they'd be stupid enough to get involved with that dumpster fire. They might buy assets like slots or gate leases, but AA has little else WN would want.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:07 pm

I hope JetBlue runs WN right out of Boston. At Logan, WN is the decidedly ‘weak’ one. Do unto others...
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
jplatts
Posts: 3544
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:37 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I hope JetBlue runs WN right out of Boston. At Logan, WN is the decidedly ‘weak’ one. Do unto others...


WN will still have year-round nonstop service to BOS from STL, which isn't currently served by B6. In addition, WN also has point-of-sale in the Baltimore/Washington, Chicago, Denver, Nashville, and St. Louis markets plus connecting feed from markets not served by B6 to support BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/STL nonstop service.

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