Significant changes on the South America - NZ - Australia routes as well:

* Melbourne: suspended
* Sydney nonstop from SCL: suspended
* SCL-AKL-SYD, reduced to 3x week

LA is taking back some of the aircraft that it shed during the bankruptcy. It appears some leases were renegotiated at better terms and the aircraft are back in SCL.

A321 CC-BEE
A321 CC-BEF will rts with JJ as PT-XPS
787-9 CC-BGE

LATAM asked for court to authorization for sale of 9 767-300 frames - c/n 40592, 41746, 41748, 41995, 41996, 41997, 42213, 41993 and 41994 to Jetran.

LAXintl wrote:

LATAM asked for court to authorization for sale of 9 767-300 frames - c/n 40592, 41746, 41748, 41995, 41996, 41997, 42213, 41993 and 41994 to Jetran.

I imagine these are ones to be converted to freighters for LATAM. All except 1 are at LATAM Brazil. With LATAM Brazil losing A359s and these aircraft, they’ll be significantly smaller.

LAXintl wrote:

LATAM asked for court to authorization for sale of 9 767-300 frames - c/n 40592, 41746, 41748, 41995, 41996, 41997, 42213, 41993 and 41994 to Jetran.

All operated by LATAM Brasil. Unsure if it's for cargo conversions or a sale and lease back scheme., If it turns out to be cargo conversions, LATAM Brasil will be left with a fraction of their long haul capacity, now that the 350s are also gone. Even with a reduced schedule, it looks like some of the flying from GRU may need to call for LATAM Chile's 787s.

When LATAM in March said they were expanding the freighter fleet they mentioned plan conversion on 8 frames.
Per airleets.net they still have 16 CC- registered 767 passenger frames of which 3 are stored that could be the cargo feed stock.

dcajet wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

LATAM asked for court to authorization for sale of 9 767-300 frames - c/n 40592, 41746, 41748, 41995, 41996, 41997, 42213, 41993 and 41994 to Jetran.

All operated by LATAM Brasil. Unsure if it's for cargo conversions or a sale and lease back scheme., If it turns out to be cargo conversions, LATAM Brasil will be left with a fraction of their long haul capacity, now that the 350s are also gone. Even with a reduced schedule, it looks like some of the flying from GRU may need to call for LATAM Chile's 787s.

The purchaser is Jetran, so definitely cargo conversions. They’ve done significant transactions on 757s and 767s.

bsbisland wrote:

Jomar777 wrote:

hannah9898 wrote:

The reason why LA is retiring all A350 is because they are not just at CH11 Bankruptcy, the economy of Brazil etc is now getting much worst too even before the pandemic and it's much more worst now to me. They will be cutting more flights within Brazil right after ending operation in Argentina.

I am sorry but you are wrong. the Brazilian economy is not as bad as you paint (for their standards anyway...) the market is there (will be once COVID19 subsidize).
.

Yes, it is. I'm Brazilian and live in Brazil and in my lifetime I don't remember Brazil being worse than it is now. Including economically with stagnant economy and high inflation (and a tone of other problems).

Sorry but still not right. But I will refrain from answering because we may go out of the main intent of A.net which is aviation; not economy. Have a great day!

jbs2886 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

LATAM asked for court to authorization for sale of 9 767-300 frames - c/n 40592, 41746, 41748, 41995, 41996, 41997, 42213, 41993 and 41994 to Jetran.

I imagine these are ones to be converted to freighters for LATAM. All except 1 are at LATAM Brazil. With LATAM Brazil losing A359s and these aircraft, they’ll be significantly smaller.

Makes no sense to sell them for freighters to use yourself. And Jetran procures them for CAM and normally goes to Amazon after.

Boof02671 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

LATAM asked for court to authorization for sale of 9 767-300 frames - c/n 40592, 41746, 41748, 41995, 41996, 41997, 42213, 41993 and 41994 to Jetran.

I imagine these are ones to be converted to freighters for LATAM. All except 1 are at LATAM Brazil. With LATAM Brazil losing A359s and these aircraft, they’ll be significantly smaller.

Makes no sense to sell them for freighters to use yourself. And Jetran procures them for CAM and normally goes to Amazon after.

Air Canada did it, so has Icelandair. I know I’m forgetting others. This allows the airline to hedge against the business not working and canceling leases - it’s basically a version of sale/leaseback. So, yes, it does make sense.

jbs2886 wrote:

Air Canada did it, so has Icelandair. I know I’m forgetting others. This allows the airline to hedge against the business not working and canceling leases - it’s basically a version of sale/leaseback. So, yes, it does make sense.

LATAM has been in the freighter business for decades (I fondly recall their 707 freighters). Its not like they are novices in the cargo business, so they well understand the business and any risk.

mercure1 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Air Canada did it, so has Icelandair. I know I’m forgetting others. This allows the airline to hedge against the business not working and canceling leases - it’s basically a version of sale/leaseback. So, yes, it does make sense.

LATAM has been in the freighter business for decades (I fondly recall their 707 freighters). Its not like they are novices in the cargo business, so they well understand the business and any risk.

Obviously they understand that , but there is a risk the cargo market doesn’t need their doubling of the freight fleet. Just because LATAM has been in the cargo business doesn’t mean the don’t need to hedge against risk-businesses hedge risks they’re familiar with all the time. This is also a way to finance the conversions because Jetran pays the costs.

jbs2886 wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Air Canada did it, so has Icelandair. I know I’m forgetting others. This allows the airline to hedge against the business not working and canceling leases - it’s basically a version of sale/leaseback. So, yes, it does make sense.

LATAM has been in the freighter business for decades (I fondly recall their 707 freighters). Its not like they are novices in the cargo business, so they well understand the business and any risk.

Obviously they understand that , but there is a risk the cargo market doesn’t need their doubling of the freight fleet. Just because LATAM has been in the cargo business doesn’t mean the don’t need to hedge against risk-businesses hedge risks they’re familiar with all the time. This is also a way to finance the conversions because Jetran pays the costs.

I think that, cargo-wise, they are planning well. They have a good knowhow on the process anyway. What I wonder is what will they use to provide for the shortfall on LATAM Brazil's passenger demand when that picks up. I wonder if we will see soon some B787s passed on to LATAM Brazil given the A350s are gone. COVID19 wise, Brazil has ramped up their vaccination program so there's a chance that, by 2022, their passenger figures will start to go up...

Jomar777 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

LATAM has been in the freighter business for decades (I fondly recall their 707 freighters). Its not like they are novices in the cargo business, so they well understand the business and any risk.

Obviously they understand that , but there is a risk the cargo market doesn’t need their doubling of the freight fleet. Just because LATAM has been in the cargo business doesn’t mean the don’t need to hedge against risk-businesses hedge risks they’re familiar with all the time. This is also a way to finance the conversions because Jetran pays the costs.

I think that, cargo-wise, they are planning well. They have a good knowhow on the process anyway. What I wonder is what will they use to provide for the shortfall on LATAM Brazil's passenger demand when that picks up. I wonder if we will see soon some B787s passed on to LATAM Brazil given the A350s are gone. COVID19 wise, Brazil has ramped up their vaccination program so there's a chance that, by 2022, their passenger figures will start to go up...

As it stands now, the cuts to LATAM's long haul flying system wide for 2022 are massive. I don't think they will have much trouble meeting the planned schedule, even if LATAM Chile has to operate some flights for LATAM Brasil, such as GRU-CDG or GRU-MAD.

dcajet wrote:

Jomar777 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Obviously they understand that , but there is a risk the cargo market doesn’t need their doubling of the freight fleet. Just because LATAM has been in the cargo business doesn’t mean the don’t need to hedge against risk-businesses hedge risks they’re familiar with all the time. This is also a way to finance the conversions because Jetran pays the costs.

I think that, cargo-wise, they are planning well. They have a good knowhow on the process anyway. What I wonder is what will they use to provide for the shortfall on LATAM Brazil's passenger demand when that picks up. I wonder if we will see soon some B787s passed on to LATAM Brazil given the A350s are gone. COVID19 wise, Brazil has ramped up their vaccination program so there's a chance that, by 2022, their passenger figures will start to go up...

As it stands now, the cuts to LATAM's long haul flying system wide for 2022 are massive. I don't think they will have much trouble meeting the planned schedule, even if LATAM Chile has to operate some flights for LATAM Brasil, such as GRU-CDG or GRU-MAD.

I quite agree with you in regards to the end of this year/beginning of 2022. But when demand picks up again, then these B767s as well as the departed A350s will be missed. I am not sure how long will they keep their leased B777s also although I think they still have quite a good deal of life on them.

Jomar777 wrote:

dcajet wrote:

Jomar777 wrote:

I think that, cargo-wise, they are planning well. They have a good knowhow on the process anyway. What I wonder is what will they use to provide for the shortfall on LATAM Brazil's passenger demand when that picks up. I wonder if we will see soon some B787s passed on to LATAM Brazil given the A350s are gone. COVID19 wise, Brazil has ramped up their vaccination program so there's a chance that, by 2022, their passenger figures will start to go up...

As it stands now, the cuts to LATAM's long haul flying system wide for 2022 are massive. I don't think they will have much trouble meeting the planned schedule, even if LATAM Chile has to operate some flights for LATAM Brasil, such as GRU-CDG or GRU-MAD.

I quite agree with you in regards to the end of this year/beginning of 2022. But when demand picks up again, then these B767s as well as the departed A350s will be missed. I am not sure how long will they keep their leased B777s also although I think they still have quite a good deal of life on them.

LATAM Brazil was bloated with too many wide body aircraft on loss making routes pre pandemic anyways. Part of their issue is they were not doing financially great prior to entering COVID. That’s why they had A350s leased out (I’m think some of them had never actually operated LATAM flights) and sold orders to DL (and were going to sell the used leased out planes to them too).

Jomar777 wrote:

dcajet wrote:

Jomar777 wrote:

I think that, cargo-wise, they are planning well. They have a good knowhow on the process anyway. What I wonder is what will they use to provide for the shortfall on LATAM Brazil's passenger demand when that picks up. I wonder if we will see soon some B787s passed on to LATAM Brazil given the A350s are gone. COVID19 wise, Brazil has ramped up their vaccination program so there's a chance that, by 2022, their passenger figures will start to go up...

As it stands now, the cuts to LATAM's long haul flying system wide for 2022 are massive. I don't think they will have much trouble meeting the planned schedule, even if LATAM Chile has to operate some flights for LATAM Brasil, such as GRU-CDG or GRU-MAD.

I quite agree with you in regards to the end of this year/beginning of 2022. But when demand picks up again, then these B767s as well as the departed A350s will be missed. I am not sure how long will they keep their leased B777s also although I think they still have quite a good deal of life on them.

LATAM Chile still has 15 pax 767s (12 active + 3 parked; mostly used by LATAM Peru). IIRC, Brazil's ANAC authorized LATAM Brasil to operate with those CC- registered planes sometime before the pandemic. Perhaps those 767s could be a source of capacity for LATAM Brasil, as more 787s take on some of the flying from the Lima hub.

onwFan wrote:

With these major pullbacks, LA significantly risks losing market share on their key routes.

I doubt market share is a serious concern in a period where the pandemic continues to keep borders closed or severely restricted. Australia is almost completely closed to foreigners. No country in South America is on the EU's green list at present.

Polot wrote:

Jomar777 wrote:

dcajet wrote:

As it stands now, the cuts to LATAM's long haul flying system wide for 2022 are massive. I don't think they will have much trouble meeting the planned schedule, even if LATAM Chile has to operate some flights for LATAM Brasil, such as GRU-CDG or GRU-MAD.

I quite agree with you in regards to the end of this year/beginning of 2022. But when demand picks up again, then these B767s as well as the departed A350s will be missed. I am not sure how long will they keep their leased B777s also although I think they still have quite a good deal of life on them.

LATAM Brazil was bloated with too many wide body aircraft on loss making routes pre pandemic anyways. Part of their issue is they were not doing financially great prior to entering COVID. That’s why they had A350s leased out (I’m think some of them had never actually operated LATAM flights) and sold orders to DL (and were going to sell the used leased out planes to them too).

LATAM Brasil was not bloated. It had a clear plan, including the A359 on it, as TAM Brasil before pre-merger. Once the merger occurred, a mistake in my opinion, it reviewed its instance (a new plan to operate independently) but then COVID19 struck. Note that LATAM Brasil is the healthier part of he group. It needed to ride a difficult transition period.

With COVID19, this became untenable and we have what we have now. The A359s that were with Qatar Airways at that time were being used to plug Qatar Airways pre-blockade shortages and remained there because they were important to allow them to restructure themselves pos-blockade on the back of the opportunity found by LATAM's transferring B767s in great condition from LAN to TAM. This plan worked really well and rendered those A359s irrelevant to the Brazilian Fleet even before pandemic hit. Now, to cater for the pandemic, it is starting to convert those B767s to freight (it does not need the capacity in short to medium term) and got rid of the A359s which did not correspond to their needs (could not for example replace the B777s it has in maters of performance and capacity) neither are needed for new routes/increase in capacity.

With the increase of the B787 fleet in Chile, there might be more B767s available to cater to a return of some form of the previous offering.

Note that the original plan for TAM Brasil (and for earlier LATAM Brasil pre-COVID19, for that matter) was to have a Airbus only fleet with the B777s coming to their lease end naturaly and being replaced by the A350. By obvious reasons - this plan has now been abandoned.

dcajet wrote:

Jomar777 wrote:

dcajet wrote:

As it stands now, the cuts to LATAM's long haul flying system wide for 2022 are massive. I don't think they will have much trouble meeting the planned schedule, even if LATAM Chile has to operate some flights for LATAM Brasil, such as GRU-CDG or GRU-MAD.

I quite agree with you in regards to the end of this year/beginning of 2022. But when demand picks up again, then these B767s as well as the departed A350s will be missed. I am not sure how long will they keep their leased B777s also although I think they still have quite a good deal of life on them.

LATAM Chile still has 15 pax 767s (12 active + 3 parked; mostly used by LATAM Peru). IIRC, Brazil's ANAC authorized LATAM Brasil to operate with those CC- registered planes sometime before the pandemic. Perhaps those 767s could be a source of capacity for LATAM Brasil, as more 787s take on some of the flying from the Lima hub.

You are right and it it might be the case on a short term but further on, I would see LATAM Brazil still needing a replacement for the B777s it has on lease once that lease becomes too onerous. Then I wonder if it would be the case of unifying the whole entity as a Chilean (main shareholding) entity and flying a B787 fleet only as far as Long Haul concerns. We would then have a smaller, local only, entity in Brazil to cater for the internal market.

LATAM together with Brazil´s ANAC have begun the process of certification of the Boeing 787 in Brazil, indicating that LATAM Brasil will be operating the 787. Brazilian pilots are already going thru simulator training in SCL.

It appears that LATAM Brasil will operate under the fleet interchange mode with LATAM Chile, and that the aircraft will retain their CC- registration. However, a source from within LATAM has told me that the above has not been defined yet and that a number of LA's 787 could end up under Brazil's registry,

https://www.aeroin.net/com-saida-a350-l ... 87-brasil/

According to the BCN airport Twitter account, LATAM is returning to Barcelona.

* GRU - BCN returns on Nov 4, 4x w

* LIM - BCN returns on Nov 3, 3x w

All flights operated with the 763ER

https://twitter.com/Aeropuerto_BCN/stat ... 8247341062

The LATAM Group submitted for the approval of the US Bankruptcy Court an agreement with Airbus for the purchase of 28 new aircraft, which will be added to the 42 narrowbody already agreed upon, as part of its fleet modernization and efficiency plan for the coming years. This order, which totals 70 aircraft, maintains the LATAM Group's fleet as the largest in Latin America

https://www.aeroin.net/grupo-latam-adqu ... s-a320neo/

dcajet wrote:

The LATAM Group submitted for the approval of the US Bankruptcy Court an agreement with Airbus for the purchase of 28 new aircraft, which will be added to the 42 narrowbody already agreed upon, as part of its fleet modernization and efficiency plan for the coming years. This order, which totals 70 aircraft, maintains the LATAM Group's fleet as the largest in Latin America

https://www.aeroin.net/grupo-latam-adqu ... s-a320neo/

Thanks for sharing. Sounds like replacement aircraft, but no indication of timeline or airline placements.

Looking through the docket, looks like LATAM is getting 5 ex-Norwegian 789s. Three from Avolon. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... Q==&id2=-1. Two from ORIX. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... w==&id2=-1

I'm not seeing the Airbus order yet in the docket.

jbs2886 wrote:

Looking through the docket, looks like LATAM is getting 5 ex-Norwegian 789s. Three from Avolon. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... Q==&id2=-1. Two from ORIX. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... w==&id2=-1

Makes sense. LATAM Brazil will need replacement capacity asap, with the retirement of the A350 fleet and the cargo conversions of most (if not all) the 767s. Brazilian pilots are already in SCL doing 787 simulator training and LATAM is working with the Brazilian regulator, ANAC to certify the 787 in Brazil.

jbs2886 wrote:

Looking through the docket, looks like LATAM is getting 5 ex-Norwegian 789s. Three from Avolon. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... Q==&id2=-1. Two from ORIX. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... w==&id2=-1

I'm not seeing the Airbus order yet in the docket.

Does anyone knows if the 787-9's operated by Norwegian features Crew Rest for both Pilots and Cabin Crew ? LATAM is facing some challenges, particularly in Brazil ,because their 787's only features the forward crew rest for pilots , leaving the cabin crew resting in the last row of seats reserved fot them wich shorten the lengh of the flight they can operate .LATAM CHILE just received its first 2 787-9 equiped whith Crew rest for Cabin Crew at the rear of the plane and the idea was to install crew rest in the 787's previously received once they go through the retrofit to get the new interiors .

dcajet wrote:

The LATAM Group submitted for the approval of the US Bankruptcy Court an agreement with Airbus for the purchase of 28 new aircraft, which will be added to the 42 narrowbody already agreed upon, as part of its fleet modernization and efficiency plan for the coming years. This order, which totals 70 aircraft, maintains the LATAM Group's fleet as the largest in Latin America

https://www.aeroin.net/grupo-latam-adqu ... s-a320neo/

So these should be replacing those older IAE frames. I haven't read any news about new frames being delivered to LATAM recently. Are those deliveries on hold?

MatheusLPV wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Looking through the docket, looks like LATAM is getting 5 ex-Norwegian 789s. Three from Avolon. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... Q==&id2=-1. Two from ORIX. https://cases.primeclerk.com/LATAM/Home ... w==&id2=-1

I'm not seeing the Airbus order yet in the docket.

Does anyone knows if the 787-9's operated by Norwegian features Crew Rest for both Pilots and Cabin Crew ? LATAM is facing some challenges, particularly in Brazil ,because their 787's only features the forward crew rest for pilots , leaving the cabin crew resting in the last row of seats reserved fot them wich shorten the lengh of the flight they can operate .LATAM CHILE just received its first 2 787-9 equiped whith Crew rest for Cabin Crew at the rear of the plane and the idea was to install crew rest in the 787's previously received once they go through the retrofit to get the new interiors .

Yes, they do for both B787-8 and B787-9. Two crew rest areas on each aircraft. The one at the front can accommodate two persons. The one at back can accommodate five persons.

https://www.norwegian.com/contentassets ... iefing.pdf

NearMiss wrote:

dcajet wrote:

The LATAM Group submitted for the approval of the US Bankruptcy Court an agreement with Airbus for the purchase of 28 new aircraft, which will be added to the 42 narrowbody already agreed upon, as part of its fleet modernization and efficiency plan for the coming years. This order, which totals 70 aircraft, maintains the LATAM Group's fleet as the largest in Latin America

https://www.aeroin.net/grupo-latam-adqu ... s-a320neo/

So these should be replacing those older IAE frames. I haven't read any news about new frames being delivered to LATAM recently. Are those deliveries on hold?

Good question. Didn't they not taken up some of their newly built A320neo family during the bankruptcy proceedings too?

LATAM Airlines Group has released a five-year business plan that includes details of its exit financing process. LATAM says that it has received several commitments from significant claim holders and shareholders, which can provide it than US$5 billion of new funding.

LATAM filed a motion seeking to solicit acceptances of its reorganization plan through December 15, 2021 and finalize its exit capital and financing along with ongoing negotiations with the various stakeholders in its Chapter 11 proceedings.

LATAM obtained funding of up to US $750 million from Oaktree Capital Management and Apollo Holdings, as part of Tranche B of the DIP financing.
In total LATAM has secured $3.2bil in financing of which $1.65bil has been utilized to date.

https://aerolatinnews.com/destacado/lat ... ciamiento/

Per court docket LATAM now requesting an extension in the exclusive period to file a reorg plan till 26 January 2022.

With the November 8th opening for non essential travel for Brazil to US maybe that will help them out. Lets see the wide-bodies back at KMCO please!

Any news on whether the remaining 767s are fully refurbished with business class? If not, does anyone know timing?

thanks

Following the out-of-court agreement between Delta, LATAM & Chile's National Economic Prosecutor's Office, Chile's Court for the Defense of Free Competition has green lighted the JV between the two airlines. This is the same court that rejected the JV between LATAM, AA and IAG. Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay had already approved the JV, the US still needs to do so.

https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/10/ch ... m-y-delta/

David Neeleman, founder and chairman of Azul, plans on bidding for all assets from LATAM stating “We would buy the whole asset." and “We know exactly what we will offer.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/latam-a ... SKBN2HN20J

It is no secret that LATAM is in a tough spot.

Few airlines already hold stakes in LATAM and I always felt like Azul would one day bid for LATAM.

Thoughts?

- Miami

To me, it is a free headline grab opportunity (aka doing a Ryanair).

In reality, Azul would be the genius to persuade both Delta and Qatar to participate. Not to mention the vast regulatory networks it has to navigate in the whole of Latin America as well as USA and Europe.

Conclusion? Hot air from Azul.

A bit old news as Azul's interest was reported a couple of months ago as part of the BK process.

UPlog wrote:

A bit old news as Azul's interest was reported a couple of months ago as part of the BK process.

What is new is the fact that they would go for the whole of LATAM, not just the Brazil franchise as previously understood. According to Azul's CEO they will make an offer for LATAM at the end of this month, when the period of exclusivity over LATAM expires.

Link to fuill article and interview with Azul's CEO (in Spanish)

https://www.df.cl/noticias/aniversario/ ... 34319.html

dcajet wrote:

UPlog wrote:

A bit old news as Azul's interest was reported a couple of months ago as part of the BK process.

What is new is the fact that they would go for the whole of LATAM, not just the Brazil franchise as previously understood. According to Azul's CEO they will make an offer for LATAM at the end of this month, when the period of exclusivity over LATAM expires.

Link to fuill article and interview with Azul's CEO (in Spanish)

https://www.df.cl/noticias/aniversario/ ... 34319.html

Well, this could end up being very interesting!

dcajet wrote:

UPlog wrote:

A bit old news as Azul's interest was reported a couple of months ago as part of the BK process.

What is new is the fact that they would go for the whole of LATAM, not just the Brazil franchise as previously understood. According to Azul's CEO they will make an offer for LATAM at the end of this month, when the period of exclusivity over LATAM expires.

Link to fuill article and interview with Azul's CEO (in Spanish)

https://www.df.cl/noticias/aniversario/ ... 34319.html

Wonder how that would turn out—Azul everywhere, not even the 3/4 legacy carrier left in most countries and just LCCs across South America, two brands, or a reverse takeover?

ahj2000 wrote:

dcajet wrote:

UPlog wrote:

A bit old news as Azul's interest was reported a couple of months ago as part of the BK process.

What is new is the fact that they would go for the whole of LATAM, not just the Brazil franchise as previously understood. According to Azul's CEO they will make an offer for LATAM at the end of this month, when the period of exclusivity over LATAM expires.

Link to fuill article and interview with Azul's CEO (in Spanish)

https://www.df.cl/noticias/aniversario/ ... 34319.html

Wonder how that would turn out—Azul everywhere, not even the 3/4 legacy carrier left in most countries and just LCCs across South America, two brands, or a reverse takeover?

Too early/not enough info available. One thing is certain: Azul has much better brand equity overall than LATAM, at least in Brazil.

On somewhat related news, LATAM and DL announced they're expanding their codeshare agreement:

https://www.mercadoeeventos.com.br/noti ... nacionais/

For me this is not a move of a company about to be acquired by Azul, even though those things can be fairly unpredictable.

BTW, I seriously doubt Azul would buy the whole LATAM Group. Such an acquisition would result in an awfully difficult process through antitrust agencies. And even if approved without significant concessions, it would still be a nightmarish marriage, with the same struggles from the LAN-TAM merger we still today - hugely different business, hugely different corporate mentalities, widely different regulatory rules, different aircraft strategies, etc.

On the other hand, I could see this speech as a way to force LATAM Group to sell LATAM Brazil to Azul. It just makes much sense for both Azul (acquiring Brazil's largest airline for a reasonable price) and for LATAM's creditors (an easy way to get their money back). Obviously the Chileans don't want to sell LATAM Brazil for cheap, but the choice may end up being taken away from their hands anyway.

An Azul-LATAM Brazil merger would also see some regulatory burdens, but waaay smaller then the ones which would be involved in a Azul-LATAM Group merger. Azul would probably be forced to downscale their VCP hub and perhaps surrender some slots in CNF and a few other regional hubs to get through antitrust, but in the end the concessions shouldn't be much of a pain. Differences in strategy and aircraft and route overlaps could be solved fairly easily I think.

JJ777 wrote:

On somewhat related news, LATAM and DL announced they're expanding their codeshare agreement:

https://www.mercadoeeventos.com.br/noti ... nacionais/

For me this is not a move of a company about to be acquired by Azul, even though those things can be fairly unpredictable.

BTW, I seriously doubt Azul would buy the whole LATAM Group. Such an acquisition would result in an awfully difficult process through antitrust agencies. And even if approved without significant concessions, it would still be a nightmarish marriage, with the same struggles from the LAN-TAM merger we still today - hugely different business, hugely different corporate mentalities, widely different regulatory rules, different aircraft strategies, etc.

On the other hand, I could see this speech as a way to force LATAM Group to sell LATAM Brazil to Azul. It just makes much sense for both Azul (acquiring Brazil's largest airline for a reasonable price) and for LATAM's creditors (an easy way to get their money back). Obviously the Chileans don't want to sell LATAM Brazil for cheap, but the choice may end up being taken away from their hands anyway.

An Azul-LATAM Brazil merger would also see some regulatory burdens, but waaay smaller then the ones which would be involved in a Azul-LATAM Group merger. Azul would probably be forced to downscale their VCP hub and perhaps surrender some slots in CNF and a few other regional hubs to get through antitrust, but in the end the concessions shouldn't be much of a pain. Differences in strategy and aircraft and route overlaps could be solved fairly easily I think.

I don't think and AD-LA merger would face many regulatory challenges outside of Brazil. Really, what is the difference between their being a LATAM Colombia or an Azul Colombia? It is not like AD is a major competitor in any of LATAM's markets outside of Brazil.

usflyer msp wrote:

JJ777 wrote:

On somewhat related news, LATAM and DL announced they're expanding their codeshare agreement:

https://www.mercadoeeventos.com.br/noti ... nacionais/

For me this is not a move of a company about to be acquired by Azul, even though those things can be fairly unpredictable.

BTW, I seriously doubt Azul would buy the whole LATAM Group. Such an acquisition would result in an awfully difficult process through antitrust agencies. And even if approved without significant concessions, it would still be a nightmarish marriage, with the same struggles from the LAN-TAM merger we still today - hugely different business, hugely different corporate mentalities, widely different regulatory rules, different aircraft strategies, etc.

On the other hand, I could see this speech as a way to force LATAM Group to sell LATAM Brazil to Azul. It just makes much sense for both Azul (acquiring Brazil's largest airline for a reasonable price) and for LATAM's creditors (an easy way to get their money back). Obviously the Chileans don't want to sell LATAM Brazil for cheap, but the choice may end up being taken away from their hands anyway.

An Azul-LATAM Brazil merger would also see some regulatory burdens, but waaay smaller then the ones which would be involved in a Azul-LATAM Group merger. Azul would probably be forced to downscale their VCP hub and perhaps surrender some slots in CNF and a few other regional hubs to get through antitrust, but in the end the concessions shouldn't be much of a pain. Differences in strategy and aircraft and route overlaps could be solved fairly easily I think.

I don't think and AD-LA merger would face many regulatory challenges outside of Brazil. Really, what is the difference between their being a LATAM Colombia or an Azul Colombia? It is not like AD is a major competitor in any of LATAM's markets outside of Brazil.

Yet mergers and JVs require approvals from many countries regularly and often face challenges. An Azul Chile may dominate Chile-Brazil and other markets more significantly than LATAM Chile when you add Azul flights. It isn’t just the domestic market that is reviewed.

jbs2886 wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

JJ777 wrote:

On somewhat related news, LATAM and DL announced they're expanding their codeshare agreement:

https://www.mercadoeeventos.com.br/noti ... nacionais/

For me this is not a move of a company about to be acquired by Azul, even though those things can be fairly unpredictable.

BTW, I seriously doubt Azul would buy the whole LATAM Group. Such an acquisition would result in an awfully difficult process through antitrust agencies. And even if approved without significant concessions, it would still be a nightmarish marriage, with the same struggles from the LAN-TAM merger we still today - hugely different business, hugely different corporate mentalities, widely different regulatory rules, different aircraft strategies, etc.

On the other hand, I could see this speech as a way to force LATAM Group to sell LATAM Brazil to Azul. It just makes much sense for both Azul (acquiring Brazil's largest airline for a reasonable price) and for LATAM's creditors (an easy way to get their money back). Obviously the Chileans don't want to sell LATAM Brazil for cheap, but the choice may end up being taken away from their hands anyway.

An Azul-LATAM Brazil merger would also see some regulatory burdens, but waaay smaller then the ones which would be involved in a Azul-LATAM Group merger. Azul would probably be forced to downscale their VCP hub and perhaps surrender some slots in CNF and a few other regional hubs to get through antitrust, but in the end the concessions shouldn't be much of a pain. Differences in strategy and aircraft and route overlaps could be solved fairly easily I think.

I don't think and AD-LA merger would face many regulatory challenges outside of Brazil. Really, what is the difference between their being a LATAM Colombia or an Azul Colombia? It is not like AD is a major competitor in any of LATAM's markets outside of Brazil.

Yet mergers and JVs require approvals from many countries regularly and often face challenges. An Azul Chile may dominate Chile-Brazil and other markets more significantly than LATAM Chile when you add Azul flights. It isn’t just the domestic market that is reviewed.

AD has exactly 0 routes to Paraguay, Chile, Peru, Ecuador or Colombia. There would be no issue.

onwFan wrote:

With these major pullbacks, LA significantly risks losing market share on their key routes.

1. From MIA, AA has already increased LIM to 4x daily. LA dropping one daily frequency on MIA-GRU/SCL/EZE makes it easier for AA to bring back 3rd daily on MIA-GRU/EZE, and 2nd daily on MIA-SCL.

2. The JFK pullbacks are probably going to be the most risky. They also seem to have dropped JFK-GYE altogether. JFK-LIM/SCL/GYE were the probably the biggest markets where AA did not compete with LA, and I thought will have been be a pillar of the DL JV. With AA already having launched JFK-SCL/BOG/CLO/MDE on top of their JFK-GRU/EZE services, AA will most probably swallow JFK-LIM too. DL flies JFK-BOG, so that’s there.

3. The LAX cutbacks are probably the least risky as no other carrier is likely to be interested in those routes.

4. The Europe cuts will likely be costly for them as well, especially if the IB partnership goes away. If UX gets absorbed by IAG, they will take up 2x daily on MAD-GRU/LIM/SCL/BOG/(UIO+GYE). IB/Level has also been quite quite successful in BCN-South America, so that will follow. There is also the possibility of AF/KL/LH/TP utilizing the opportunity to add to South America.

5. The Australia/NZ routes will also likely be less of an issue as the only other operator QF is their partner, NZ having given up South America routes.

On 2, this indicates a real re-trenching since giving up GYE basically all but cedes the lion's share of the market to B6. B6 also uses the lower-cost A21N on JFK-GYE, while XL had used a B763 on that route. As for the DL JV, I do wonder if many of these routes will be replicated instead from ATL, except for JFK-GRU.

Another thing of note though: AA's Colombian services are generally on the A319. I also wonder if eventually, when B6 has more A321LRs/XLRs, if they would launch routes like FLL-GRU or FLL-GIG. (FLL-SCL could be doable on the A321XLR, but would 138 seats be too few?) AA can capitalize now, and I would not be surprised if B6 does when they have more longer-range narrow-bodies, as FLL-SCL could theoretically be done now on the A321LR in B6's configuration, but B6 only has 3 A321LR frames right now, all tied up on UK services.

As far as an AD acquisition of LA (JJ) would be...the real issue would be domestic, as that instantly would make AD have more than half the country's market share. AD is already the dominant domestic carrier in Brazil. Given how AD could also tie up with B6 in the USA (the airlines share a founder and some of the first AD planes were in fact ex-B6 frames transferred to AD), I could see that being looked at as well. Fleet-wise, I don't see much fleet compatibility, as AD prefers the A332/9 and would probably see the B763 as superfluous and the B77W as way too big.

Sources in Brazil and in Chile now believe LATAM will announce until tomorrow a restructuring agreement with it's main creditors. LATAM recently got a 750 million dollar loan which helped the company to stay afloat and now seems to be ready to start dealing with it's creditors.

According to some sources LATAM was in a hurry to move on with it's restructuring process as it's believed Azul was ready to present an aggressive takeover bid as early as next Monday.

https://www.suno.com.br/noticias/latam- ... zul-azul4/

Nothing is certain yet, though. LATAM shares were almost 10% down yesterday in NYC and over 5% down today in Santiago. Some still believe it'll be hard for LATAM to dodge a takeover bid from Azul.

https://www.aeroin.net/em-semana-decisi ... -disparam/