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NameOmitted
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:26 pm

For oversize cargo, does the aircraft need a cockpit in the front? Given how good simulators are, could the cockpit be moved to the trail to allow for a nose-door in an otherwise normal 777-8?
 
FGITD
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:21 am

NameOmitted wrote:
For oversize cargo, does the aircraft need a cockpit in the front? Given how good simulators are, could the cockpit be moved to the trail to allow for a nose-door in an otherwise normal 777-8?


Certainly an interesting idea, and in my opinion the type of outside the box thinking these companies could use, but at that point you’re just designing an entirely new aircraft
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:33 am

FGITD wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
For oversize cargo, does the aircraft need a cockpit in the front? Given how good simulators are, could the cockpit be moved to the trail to allow for a nose-door in an otherwise normal 777-8?


Certainly an interesting idea, and in my opinion the type of outside the box thinking these companies could use, but at that point you’re just designing an entirely new aircraft

Am I? The aircraft is fly by wire, the control issues are data networking, not physical cabeling. There is obviously a lot of equipment that would need to move, but it's it any moreso a new aircraft than adding a drop ramp would be?
 
dstblj52
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:18 am

NameOmitted wrote:
FGITD wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
For oversize cargo, does the aircraft need a cockpit in the front? Given how good simulators are, could the cockpit be moved to the trail to allow for a nose-door in an otherwise normal 777-8?


Certainly an interesting idea, and in my opinion the type of outside the box thinking these companies could use, but at that point you’re just designing an entirely new aircraft

Am I? The aircraft is fly by wire, the control issues are data networking, not physical cabeling. There is obviously a lot of equipment that would need to move, but it's it any moreso a new aircraft than adding a drop ramp would be?

Well you would need to add a bunch of cameras too where the cockpit used to be and would then have to certify them something never before done in commercial aviation meaning expect it to be difficult and expensive, and you might need to have backups in case any camera failed or a plan to operate in spit of such failure, and and I guarantee it's not going to be a popular aircraft with ATC or airports due to the potential complications with vfr approaches and the resulting drop of flow rates into airports
 
CaptainObvious1
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:31 am

NameOmitted wrote:
For oversize cargo, does the aircraft need a cockpit in the front? Given how good simulators are, could the cockpit be moved to the trail to allow for a nose-door in an otherwise normal 777-8?


I see cars and trucks all the time with random things strapped onto them going down the freeway with minimal straps holding it down. They could just do that for airplanes, higher speed.... no worries, use better straps. :wave:


Captain Obvious.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:19 am

Nomadd wrote:
The important thing is that the last 748 comes off the line after the last 380, because some self professed expert made me a thousand to one bet three years ago that couldn't possibly happen.


It is shocking but likely to become true, if just an a.net member (verses in real life) he will probably disappear as the times comes close. Anyway I hope you bet $100, even $10 at those odds.

----
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:25 am

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
For oversize cargo, does the aircraft need a cockpit in the front? Given how good simulators are, could the cockpit be moved to the trail to allow for a nose-door in an otherwise normal 777-8?


I see cars and trucks all the time with random things strapped onto them going down the freeway with minimal straps holding it down. They could just do that for airplanes, higher speed.... no worries, use better straps. :wave:


Captain Obvious.


I found a news story on a prototype, it was an #epic #fail.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/mom-arrested- ... d=64248083
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
CX747 wrote:
There is an article up on Leeham discussing Boeing "potentially" moving forward the offering of the 777-8F design. This would overlap with a "potential" 747 line closure in 2023. Sheds additional light on the decisions Boeing management is chewing on.

It also meets with Boeing needing 20-30 747 orders to keep the line open. 30 orders is 5 years and would dovetail along the original 777-8F offering thought process. Time will tell....more 747s or 777-8F earlier?!?!?

I'm on the "778F earlier" side. Boeing can't be making money at 0.5 frames per month on the 747 line. They would probably be better off closing the line sooner than later and repurposing the factory space and production workers. Think of how many MAXes you could store in the factory, lol!

Boeing was mumbling about a future freight bounce back when they took the UPS order, which was thought to be taken to keep the line ticking over at a slow rate till the boom happened. Well we now have the boom, but the beneficiary is mostly the 767 conversion and new market, with some bleed over to the 77F market.

The COVID19 crisis is showing passenger traffic down and a long slow recovery with a lot of the world under quarantine shifting their spending habits away from brick and mortar and towards e-commerce. This means the 77X needs to have a freighter sooner than later, IMO. Soon so they have it in the market before the 777 conversions become the only game in town for large freighters.


Yes,

777X freighter would results in more orders.

Current 777X backlog supports a production rate of no more than 3 aircraft per month. Looking at all the investments Boeing made for this aircraft (just check out that expensive wing factory, for example), I think Boeing envised a much higher production rate when the thing was launched in 2013.
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:50 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Current 777X backlog supports a production rate of no more than 3 aircraft per month. Looking at all the investments Boeing made for this aircraft (just check out that expensive wing factory, for example), I think Boeing envised a much higher production rate when the thing was launched in 2013.

I do recall an article saying they when they were at the point of deciding whether or not to buy all the stuff needed for full capacity (extra autoclaves etc) there was something of an internal tussle going on (although they do have two autoclaves https://www.boeing.com/company/about-bc ... 10-18.page ). Regardless at this point it's "sunk cost", the stuff is in the factory, it's now a matter of getting customers to keep their commitments, or not. Also I'm presuming the factory was sized assuming NMA would come along.
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:16 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
The important thing is that the last 748 comes off the line after the last 380, because some self professed expert made me a thousand to one bet three years ago that couldn't possibly happen.


It is shocking but likely to become true, if just an a.net member (verses in real life) he will probably disappear as the times comes close. Anyway I hope you bet $100, even $10 at those odds.

----

I made the same bet with Keesje before the A380 entered service. It was for $5.
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Stitch
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:46 pm

So an article in The Seattle Times earlier this month implies that even if there are real customers for the 747-8F, Boeing no longer wants to make the plane. It claims that Boeing actively stopped marketing the frame around 2018 (after a "last call", perhaps?) and when a number of existing 747-8F customers approached Boeing a couple of years back about placing additional orders (so likely after the UPS order in February 2018), Boeing declined to enter into any serious negotiation because they were focused on getting the 737MAX and 777X into production and the talks ended.

Triumph Group evidently is still producing ship-sets for the 747-8F, but only for the frames that there are commitments for (which would be a maximum of 20 and might now be less if Boeing has cancelled the frames that are now "white tails") and fully intend to stop production by the end of the year once they complete those ship-set commitments.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... er-market/
 
CX747
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:05 pm

Multiple articles out there all shedding new light on the 747 program. The Gates article show that Boeing was focusing on other priorities rather than the 747 over the past few years. It doesn't discuss any final call. Just a company not commenting on the program.

The Gates article also states the Triumph is still open and producing needed parts for the 747 line. Seems a contract with Triumph could be redone OR the necessary tooling purchased and set up at a new shop.

Let's see what plays out with UPS, Boeing and the 747 over the next several months. Is the suspected upcoming 747 order from UPS the last for the Queen or do we learn of additional renewed interest?
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Phosphorus
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:13 pm

Are we to believe that this:
https://www.aucto.com/auction/triumph-a ... ay-1/10591
and previous and follow-on auctions are not affecting Triumph's capability to manufacture 747 fuselage parts?
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CX747
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:04 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Are we to believe that this:
https://www.aucto.com/auction/triumph-a ... ay-1/10591
and previous and follow-on auctions are not affecting Triumph's capability to manufacture 747 fuselage parts?


No, we have already discussed Triumph's current position within the 747 and how a pathway forward without them is being discussed at Boeing.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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Stitch
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:24 pm

Well if Boeing still wanted to make 747-8Fs, you think they'd entertain an offer from "multiple customers for a large order". So either those customers were asking for "unsustainable pricing" or Boeing feels the program just isn't worth the effort to keep going at such a low rate (which was effectively set by UPS' delivery schedule for their 28). So if those "other customers wanted", say, 30 frames among them, but they wanted them over five years, that would still only keep the line going at rate 0.5 and Boeing may very well not be making money at that rate (as some have speculated).

Triumph Aerostructures Group's current 747-related production contract ends in 2021. They became the 747-8 primary supplier in 2014 when they bought Vought Aerospace and they have been consolidating 747 production since, moving it from Texas to California. The California plants have been mostly selling off ancillary parts per the auction catalogs, but with the 747 production contract ending soon we will likely start seeing infrastructure for that program on the block. Triumph has been reporting losses on their 747 production contracts since they bought it from Triumph and while I expect the 2016/2017 deal with Boeing addressed that to some extent, did that increase Boeing's own overall production losses? If so, one could see why Boeing was not interested in new orders that would not put their portion of the 747 "back in black".
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:34 pm

CX747 wrote:
The Gates article also states the Triumph is still open and producing needed parts for the 747 line. Seems a contract with Triumph could be redone OR the necessary tooling purchased and set up at a new shop.

Triumph is responsible for more then just the fuselage panels, they have several production facilities working on different 747 parts. They have been winding down their share in the 747 production for several years now. In 2015 Boeing already announced that they would take over a part of the fuselage panel production from Triumph. With the 747 production reductions it's very possible that Triumph has already completed the production of several individual panels, while still working on other parts. Auctioning off all the tooling that was used for the production pf parts which is now completed.

The information coming out right now is that Triumph will completely stop all 747 fuselage panel work alter this year. And there are no signs that Boeing looking at bringing more of this work in house to continue the production.

So it does look like Boeing has already made the decision to not continue with the 747-8F and focus on selling more 777F (which they have done pretty successfully over the last couple of years) until a decision is made on a 777XF.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:46 pm

"Tension is building within Boeing about whether to keep the B747 in production beyond the current order backlog, as a decision looms on the future of the iconic aircraft."

Direct quote from the article that started this thread. We can talk about Triumph and their production coming to a close. We can talk about potential orders from 2 years ago that Boeing fluffed off. If the article that started this thread is believed, then Boeing has not made a decision to terminate 747 production. Yes, the line has slowed down and yes Triumph is bowing out but Boeing itself has not yet made it's own decision.
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Stitch
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:26 pm

CX747 wrote:
Yes, the line has slowed down and yes Triumph is bowing out but Boeing itself has not yet made it's own decision.


Just because Boeing has not made their decision public does not mean they have not made a decision.

IMO, the body of evidence points to them having made a decision (likely years ago) to end production with the orders they had on hand from UPS and Volga-Dnepr (and now they don't have the latter).
 
acceldrag
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:52 am

As a personal opinion and estimation of future evolution of things...4 engines will be again the next best thing. This will happen i guess around 15-20 years from now, when the massive will be again a trend. Especially after recent engine tech developments, that make them efficient and lower the per hour per sest cost.
Then the 747 icon will be enough for Boeing to lead again in the wide 4 engine crafts.
Again my opinion and point of view.

Sent from my ASUS_X00TDB using Tapatalk
 
Noshow
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:14 am

I don't see that happening. As aerodynamics will be significantly improved with let's say blended wing bodies, any quad engined sized plane of today only needs three or two engines in the future.
 
ewt340
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:00 pm

acceldrag wrote:
As a personal opinion and estimation of future evolution of things...4 engines will be again the next best thing. This will happen i guess around 15-20 years from now, when the massive will be again a trend. Especially after recent engine tech developments, that make them efficient and lower the per hour per sest cost.
Then the 747 icon will be enough for Boeing to lead again in the wide 4 engine crafts.
Again my opinion and point of view.

Sent from my ASUS_X00TDB using Tapatalk


I doubt it. Currently, Boeing have B777-9 which is just slightly smaller (10-20 seats differences) compared to B747-400 in terms of performance and capacity. This is based on the premise on how B777X still uses aluminium fuselage rather than composite materials, same range as B747-400, and less engine thrust compared to B777-300ER.

This mean that in 15-20 years, if the market require a large widebody the size of B747-400. They would already have 1:1 replacement NOW with B777-9.

Our technology allow us to put 2 engines on those VLA rather than 4.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:03 pm

Noshow wrote:
I don't see that happening. As aerodynamics will be significantly improved with let's say blended wing bodies, any quad engined sized plane of today only needs three or two engines in the future.

The lack of a rudder (only drag rudders) make the plane squirley in an out of engine scenario. Only 3 of 4 engine BwBs will happen.

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DUSdude
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:09 pm

acceldrag wrote:
As a personal opinion and estimation of future evolution of things...4 engines will be again the next best thing. This will happen i guess around 15-20 years from now, when the massive will be again a trend. Especially after recent engine tech developments, that make them efficient and lower the per hour per sest cost.
Then the 747 icon will be enough for Boeing to lead again in the wide 4 engine crafts.
Again my opinion and point of view.


The issue these days isn't so much engine efficiency per se, but maintenance costs. Engine maintenance has gotten extremely expensive over the years. When you have a jet that doesn't sell many copies but operates with a bespoke engine, you don't have economies of scale for engine parts and maintenance. That's what to a certain extent killed both the A340-500/600 and the A380. Those engines are unique to those aircraft types, so there are too few of them to give you economies of scale. By contrast, the A340-300, 747-400 and 747-8 all have engines that are part of a bigger engine family that powers several other aircraft types, so they benefit from economies of scale for spare parts. Any new quad would have to not only be sensationally efficient, it would have to achieve that efficiency with an off-the-shelf engine type. Because one way or another the market for large quads is limited. So the only way to make the engine maintenance economical is if you can benefit from a larger engine pool for parts and maintenance.
 
sgbroimp
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:15 pm

Four engines are a dead duck concept most likely. Would you own four cars for you and your wife if you could do fine with two? Four just doubles the cost of almost everything.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:28 pm

DUSdude wrote:
acceldrag wrote:
As a personal opinion and estimation of future evolution of things...4 engines will be again the next best thing. This will happen i guess around 15-20 years from now, when the massive will be again a trend. Especially after recent engine tech developments, that make them efficient and lower the per hour per sest cost.
Then the 747 icon will be enough for Boeing to lead again in the wide 4 engine crafts.
Again my opinion and point of view.


The issue these days isn't so much engine efficiency per se, but maintenance costs. Engine maintenance has gotten extremely expensive over the years. When you have a jet that doesn't sell many copies but operates with a bespoke engine, you don't have economies of scale for engine parts and maintenance. That's what to a certain extent killed both the A340-500/600 and the A380. Those engines are unique to those aircraft types, so there are too few of them to give you economies of scale. By contrast, the A340-300, 747-400 and 747-8 all have engines that are part of a bigger engine family that powers several other aircraft types, so they benefit from economies of scale for spare parts. Any new quad would have to not only be sensationally efficient, it would have to achieve that efficiency with an off-the-shelf engine type. Because one way or another the market for large quads is limited. So the only way to make the engine maintenance economical is if you can benefit from a larger engine pool for parts and maintenance.

While engine maintenance is expensive, fuel bills dwarf the sum of all engine costs.

That said, I agree any future tri or quad is not getting a bespoke engine. This is an industry built on economies of scale.

The A346 was originally supposed to share engines with an unbuilt twin. Airbus should have paid attention when the best engine offered on the quad was a frankenstein instead of a good design.

The 748 benefitted by a related engine, exclusive engine, but still has mediocre economics of scale.

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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
While engine maintenance is expensive, fuel bills dwarf the sum of all engine costs.

That said, I agree any future tri or quad is not getting a bespoke engine. This is an industry built on economies of scale.

The A346 was originally supposed to share engines with an unbuilt twin. Airbus should have paid attention when the best engine offered on the quad was a frankenstein instead of a good design.

The 748 benefitted by a related engine, exclusive engine, but still has mediocre economics of scale.

Lightsaber

From what I've read, designing the 767 was done by building the biggest twin that could be built around the biggest engines of the day (late 70s), thus the relatively inefficient 7x cross section where you add only one more seat when you add the second aisle. A300 was 8x but suffered in range. A330 came along as engines evolved to support an 8x with good range, which steadily increased as engines got more efficient (more range for the same fuel) and more features were back-ported from A340 (enabling center fuel tank, MTOW improvements, etc). 767 also added more range, to the point where it could be viewed as excessive, so 764 came along to trade off some range for more pax. Yet we see customers are willing to buy new 767s with late 80s tech engines. It kind of shows the value of a mature ecosystem.

Airbus's John Leahy complained that engine vendors would not build bespoke engines for their products. Seems the approach should have been to understand when a new generation of tech was ready to be implemented then design the airframe for that engine. He said Airbus was sandbagged by the engine vendors on A380 because they didn't tell him that a whole new tech bump (GE90-115 then GEnX) was soon to happen, and if he'd known he'd have waited. I guess we'll never know if he's speaking the truth or not. All we do know is Airbus did go forward on A340-600 and A380 with "frankenstein" engines and didn't do very well. We do know that A330 has ridden the wave quite well. A330neo is basically a T1000-TEN with bypass air. It should be mainstream enough to do well long term. A350 has also seemed to match emerging engine tech with its release date.

I guess COVID-19 emphasizes something that I commented on as it was happening: we were blessed to live through a streak of new product releases from 787 to A350 to A320neo to MAX to A330neo. Too bad we didn't get a NMA. We were already due for a lull, but COVID-19 has really knocked the wind out of the sails (and sales as well!).
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Noshow
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:16 pm

And there is that little hiccup with the MAX.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:23 pm

Noshow wrote:
And there is that little hiccup with the MAX.

Sure. Often, you learn a lot from mistakes. Let's hope Boeing does.you consider Boeing engineering screw ups to be human factors.

The root cause is Boeing Engineering gave M
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:08 am

lightsaber wrote:
While engine maintenance is expensive, fuel bills dwarf the sum of all engine costs.


I wasn't arguing that there is a future for quads. But in the case of the A345/6 engine maintenance costs are THE main factor why that type is less successful than the A343 (which on many sectors is as fuel efficient or better than a 772ER).
 
brindabella
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:55 pm

DUSdude wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
While engine maintenance is expensive, fuel bills dwarf the sum of all engine costs.


I wasn't arguing that there is a future for quads. But in the case of the A345/6 engine maintenance costs are THE main factor why that type is less successful than the A343 (which on many sectors is as fuel efficient or better than a 772ER).


I read far too any posts that the LHR congestion MUST guarantee the success of the A380.

:crying:

So much for that.

Nevertheless the (much missed) posts by Matt6461 pointed out that:

A) there is definitely an "environmental niche" for a well-designed large quad., and
B) to attempt run same on two (gigantic) fan-engines was basically silly.

(Hope I have done you justice, Matt! Come back soon!).

cheers
Billy
 
Ronaldo747
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:07 pm

It's look like that the decision has been made. The last 747 will be rolled out of the factory in about two years. The end of the 747 is there. ;-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=CMQY7IGK
 
ERAUMBA
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Analyst speculates Boeing Ends 747 Production in 2022.

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:32 pm

According to a report published by Reuters, The Boeing Company is ending 747 production in 2022.
 
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Re: Boeing Ends 747 Production

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:35 pm

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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:40 pm

Not surprising in the least to me.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:44 pm

20 years ago I’d have lost money that the 747 rolls off the line after the last A380.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:53 pm

Respectfully, this article is not a confirmation. It is strong supposition.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:55 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
It's look like that the decision has been made. The last 747 will be rolled out of the factory in about two years. The end of the 747 is there. ;-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=CMQY7IGK


It's not exactly confirmation since the article doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know in this very thread.

But this is very telling, especially for those that are convinced the 747-8 is somehow profitable at such a low production rate:
The Chicago-based company has lost about $40 million for each 747 since 2016, when it slowed production to a trickle, making just six jets a year, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated. All told, Boeing has recorded $4.2 billion in accounting charges for the 747-8, which has been kept alive as a freighter.


Stitch wrote:
Not surprising in the least to me.


It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, but still no actual confirmation from Boeing themselves. But, as is their MO, they won't announce it until the absolute last possible moment.
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:58 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
It's look like that the decision has been made. The last 747 will be rolled out of the factory in about two years. The end of the 747 is there. ;-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=CMQY7IGK

TFA says:

“As it turned out, the number of routes for which you need an ultralarge aircraft are incredibly few,” said Sash Tusa, an analyst with Agency Partners.

Yes, and it turns out hope doesn't always triumph over reason.

An interesting tidbit:

The Chicago-based company has lost about $40 million for each 747 since 2016, when it slowed production to a trickle, making just six jets a year, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated. All told, Boeing has recorded $4.2 billion in accounting charges for the 747-8, which has been kept alive as a freighter.

Given that number, I'm surprised there was much of an "internal struggle". I can imagine some could have hoped in 2016 there would be a chance the market for 748F would come back. Now it should be clear that Boeing simply can't afford to lose $40M every frame without any clear or obvious path to a market recovery.

We should save this post for the inevitable "why doesn't Boeing restart 747 production" threads.

It also says:

The A380 has cost Airbus about 20 billion euros ($23 billion), breaking even or generating profits for only a three-year stretch starting in 2015, Agency Partners estimated.

I think this is significant since the estimates are coming from the same source.

So in round terms Airbus has lost five times as much money on A380 as Boeing did on 747-8. It's very illustrative of how costly and risky clean sheet development can be versus creating a derivative.
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Re: Boeing Ends 747 Production

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:59 pm

"...When contacted by Reuters, Boeing did not confirm the Bloomberg report..."


Enough said innit
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:12 pm

Boeing is not going to publicly confirm it until they are ready / required because it is a statement that will have a material effect on their market performance and the SEC has rules around the reporting of such items.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:23 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
It's look like that the decision has been made. The last 747 will be rolled out of the factory in about two years. The end of the 747 is there. ;-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=CMQY7IGK


It was bound to happen.

It's just so difficult to assemble an aircraft when one of your Tier 1 suppliers doesn't make the fuselage sections anymore.
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:05 am

This lack of confirmation could be a form of "last call" to cargo airlines. If there is no significant response within the next few months then maybe they will make it a solid confirmation. If that is the case then they would be smart to launch a 777X freighter immediately after the confirmation- as long as it can outperform the current 777F on payload, that is.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:08 am

Bloomberg pubishes something that could have been taken from this thread on A.net, Reuters repeats it breathlessly, but then admits that when they asked Boeing, it wouldn't confirm.

It's not over yet. But it's not looking good. This could have been a flare sent up to see how the financial folks would respond. And the answer is they shrugged.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:30 am

Kinda confused on the current orders for the 747-8F - what's left exactly?

12 for UPS and 3 for Volga? Or were the 3 for Volga completely removed?
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:58 am

Why would Boeing announce, in a time like this, that they are closing down a production line? Especially for the 747?
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:05 am

Stitch wrote:
Boeing is not going to publicly confirm it until they are ready / required because it is a statement that will have a material effect on their market performance and the SEC has rules around the reporting of such items.


It will have no material effect on revenues: it's half a plane a month. There can't be much left to depreciate to precipitate a big write-down.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:05 am

I actually feel sorry for Boeing here. Big 747-400F customers have really messed them around. They made it reasonably clear three years ago that they were making a "last call". Back then it was just as clear as it is today that if CargoLux, Atlas, Cathay etc wanted their still substantial fleets of -400Fs replaced, they would have to get out their checkbook inorder to secure the future of the program. Seems a bit hollow for them to expect Boeing to continue the program without new orders.

Either way, it's a shame for the 747 line to be closing.
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:08 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Boeing is not going to publicly confirm it until they are ready / required because it is a statement that will have a material effect on their market performance and the SEC has rules around the reporting of such items.


It will have no material effect on revenues: it's half a plane a month. There can't be much left to depreciate to precipitate a big write-down.



If they're making half a plane per month, one can hardly expect the program to be cashflow positive. A few posts earlier it was suggested that Boeing was losing ~$40 million per 747. With that in mind, surely the announcement would actually be positive for Boeing's bottom line.
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:24 am

If you are bleeding cash as you are trying to get 2 models certified, one of which is supposed to be your moneymaker, you cannot responsibly allow another model to lose you $40m per delivery as order are only trickling in without ever increasing the rate to make it worth your while.
 
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Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:28 am

Revelation wrote:
Ronaldo747 wrote:
It's look like that the decision has been made. The last 747 will be rolled out of the factory in about two years. The end of the 747 is there. ;-(

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=CMQY7IGK

TFA says:

“As it turned out, the number of routes for which you need an ultralarge aircraft are incredibly few,” said Sash Tusa, an analyst with Agency Partners.

Yes, and it turns out hope doesn't always triumph over reason.

An interesting tidbit:

The Chicago-based company has lost about $40 million for each 747 since 2016, when it slowed production to a trickle, making just six jets a year, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated. All told, Boeing has recorded $4.2 billion in accounting charges for the 747-8, which has been kept alive as a freighter.

Given that number, I'm surprised there was much of an "internal struggle". I can imagine some could have hoped in 2016 there would be a chance the market for 748F would come back. Now it should be clear that Boeing simply can't afford to lose $40M every frame without any clear or obvious path to a market recovery.

We should save this post for the inevitable "why doesn't Boeing restart 747 production" threads.

It also says:

The A380 has cost Airbus about 20 billion euros ($23 billion), breaking even or generating profits for only a three-year stretch starting in 2015, Agency Partners estimated.

I think this is significant since the estimates are coming from the same source.

So in round terms Airbus has lost five times as much money on A380 as Boeing did on 747-8. It's very illustrative of how costly and risky clean sheet development can be versus creating a derivative.

How did you come to this conclusion? The text you have quoted does not contain any meaningful comparable data sets. They provide development costs for the A380 (EUR 20B), and accounting charges for the 747 (USD 4.2B). If this was your basis, it is completely wrong.
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