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AndoAv8R
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United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 2:10 pm

From Simple Flying:

https://simpleflying.com/united-airline ... -aircraft/

This reminds me a lot of Deltas old business model.

So I'm wondering if this means for the status of the 737max/787/A350s on order?

Also I wonder if this means they might end up keeping the 757s on site a while longer?

With the 777's getting up in age (with 30+ having been built prior to 2000 and still operating the earliest built), does this inidcate there will be no full replacement of the 777s for a while? What kind of times do the airframes have/whats the expected max before it becomes unfeasible to keep them in service?

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STT757
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 2:17 pm

They will take the 737 Max and 787s on order, the A350s are definitely not coming.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 2:49 pm

This speak to plans to cut capital spending:

Separately, the company said it expects 2020 adjusted capital expenditures (capex) to be below $4.5 billion, and 2021 capex to "close to" $2 billion. United does not expect to be required to take delivery of any new aircraft in 2022.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unite ... 2020-05-19

If UA has announced specific deferrals (by type/year) I've missed it.

You get the whole hours/cycles/years/parts availability/want something with better fuel burn algorithm but AC and DL have shown that you can fly 767s out to ~30 years just fine (and DL, 757s, too). CO was among the early recipients of 737NGs. UA has a lot of them, and if they can fly for 30 years it's going to be financially significant.

It flies against (pun intended) the hard-core must buy/fly nothing but shiny & new! paradigm that's so popular on a.net. The combination of newly expensive capital, cheap fuel, and availability of many used aircraft just crushes the often-dubious financial underpinnings of that argument. New aircraft will not sell themselves on the lower CO2 emissions argument in the U.S.
 
kiowa
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 2:52 pm

STT757 wrote:
They will take the 737 Max and 787s on order, the A350s are definitely not coming.


Probably not but even this months CEO could not say “definitely “
 
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Polot
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 2:59 pm

First A350 aren’t suppose to arrive until 2027. I doubt UA management is really focused on them at this time with these comments.
 
JFKalumni
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 3:16 pm

STT757 wrote:
They will take the 737 Max and 787s on order, the A350s are definitely not coming.


I agree. Those A350’s may turn into a substantial order for A220’s and A321’s. Just in time to replace the A319, A320, 737-700,800’s
 
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lugie
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 3:19 pm

AndoAv8R wrote:
Also I wonder if this means they might end up keeping the 757s on site a while longer?

With the 777's getting up in age (with 30+ having been built prior to 2000 and still operating the earliest built), does this inidcate there will be no full replacement of the 777s for a while? What kind of times do the airframes have/whats the expected max before it becomes unfeasible to keep them in service?


Sadly they've also stated on several occasions that due to the COVID groundings and the ensuing slump in demand which will, between very optimistic and very pessimistic predictions, last* until at least 1Q2022 or some time 2024-2025, they'll permanently downsize their fleet.

This probably means (although I very much hope not as I'm still trying to get on a 757 before they're all gone), that they might park their 757 fleet even if there's no direct replacement on the way.
Same goes for some of the older 777s, where I can see some of the oldest internationally configured 772s (as international, i.e. intercontinental, travel will likely be among the last to recover) be retired without being replaced by newer aircraft for a while.



Edit: added clarification - by how long the slump lasts I mean when pre-COVID (2019)-level traffic can be expected again
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
MileHFL400
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 3:46 pm

A350’s were dead in the sea pre covid anyway and anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
DCA350
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 3:47 pm

Polot wrote:
First A350 aren’t suppose to arrive until 2027. I doubt UA management is really focused on them at this time with these comments.


Exactly.. The Max, 787 and maybe the A321XLR order are at risk of being deferred or cancelled. They have already pushed the boat out on the A350. I also expect some of the oldest A320s, 777s, 767s and 757s to be retired.
Last edited by DCA350 on Fri May 29, 2020 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jghealey
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Fri May 29, 2020 3:48 pm

But the A350s aren't due until 2027 (as DCA350 and Polot rightly point out)? Most analysts predict a return to previous demand around 2023... that still leaves 4 years before the A350s arrive. I'm sure if they're cancelled, Covid will be the excuse rather than the actual cause.
 
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ADent
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Sun May 31, 2020 12:17 am

Those A350s were ordered in 2010 by pre-merger UA who was kinda pro-Airbus and somewhat anti-GE.

Pre Merger Continental was strongly pro-Boeing and post merger United seems to be in that camp.

I don’t see UA taking any A350’s if they can help it, even 17 years after the initial order.
 
eugdjinn
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Sun May 31, 2020 12:50 pm

The more interesting pivot for UA is to see if they can transition to a focus on domestic air travel and not rely on international. For that, I'm waiting to see if they will tell Boeing, "um, no, no Max for us, you keep those. We might take those 717s you need to find a home for though? Yeah, make us a deal on those!"

And then pull A320 neos in a conversion of the A350 order. I could see Kirby doing that and handing back every Max for the public relations just to mess with AA and DL. UA has a fair number of newish Next Gen 37s, and could switch families for now. The 717 would be a help for about 10 years in the fleet, if the price was right, and if he could get the whole UA team to work United... well, it could make a difference.
 
bigb
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Sun May 31, 2020 12:55 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
The more interesting pivot for UA is to see if they can transition to a focus on domestic air travel and not rely on international. For that, I'm waiting to see if they will tell Boeing, "um, no, no Max for us, you keep those. We might take those 717s you need to find a home for though? Yeah, make us a deal on those!"

And then pull A320 neos in a conversion of the A350 order. I could see Kirby doing that and handing back every Max for the public relations just to mess with AA and DL. UA has a fair number of newish Next Gen 37s, and could switch families for now. The 717 would be a help for about 10 years in the fleet, if the price was right, and if he could get the whole UA team to work United... well, it could make a difference.


United aren’t getting rid of max fleet lol. Come on man, let’s be real.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Sun May 31, 2020 1:10 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
The more interesting pivot for UA is to see if they can transition to a focus on domestic air travel and not rely on international. For that, I'm waiting to see if they will tell Boeing, "um, no, no Max for us, you keep those. We might take those 717s you need to find a home for though? Yeah, make us a deal on those!"

And then pull A320 neos in a conversion of the A350 order. I could see Kirby doing that and handing back every Max for the public relations just to mess with AA and DL. UA has a fair number of newish Next Gen 37s, and could switch families for now. The 717 would be a help for about 10 years in the fleet, if the price was right, and if he could get the whole UA team to work United... well, it could make a difference.


UA isn't getting rid of MAXs. I can't see it getting 717s, no matter the price - UA keeps pointing to mainline economics not working for that size aircraft. UA isn't swapping 737 family for A320 family, not with 348 737NG/MAX on property and ~150 more on order.

The stated plan is to minimize capital spending on new aircraft, not turnover or expand the fleet.

How does 'handing back' MAX mess with DL when DL has no MAX on order?
 
JFKalumni
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Re: United Airlines: focus on preserving cash versus acquiring new aircraft

Sun May 31, 2020 2:09 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
The more interesting pivot for UA is to see if they can transition to a focus on domestic air travel and not rely on international. For that, I'm waiting to see if they will tell Boeing, "um, no, no Max for us, you keep those. We might take those 717s you need to find a home for though? Yeah, make us a deal on those!"

And then pull A320 neos in a conversion of the A350 order. I could see Kirby doing that and handing back every Max for the public relations just to mess with AA and DL. UA has a fair number of newish Next Gen 37s, and could switch families for now. The 717 would be a help for about 10 years in the fleet, if the price was right, and if he could get the whole UA team to work United... well, it could make a difference.


The Max’s are coming no doubt. The A350 is not needed. The writing is clearly on wall especially with this top up order for 787-9’s and 10’s.

Would love to have the A220’s and A321LR / XLR

321LR’s for domestic transcons and Hawaii

A321XLR Routed for the east coast heavies (EWR/IAD/MCO/FLL/SJU) turning afternoon Europe bank.

A220’s to replace the 737-700’s (EWR/SNA/SXM/BOG/MEX)

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