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melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:37 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
With the latest development in VIC today, i wonder if there will be a delay to the announced interstate border restrictions easing. Doesnt bode well for domestic travel


I was watching some of Daniel Andrews press conference, he was talking about the possibility of some restrictions on travel between VIC & NSW, one possibility discussed was of residents of the worst-hit Local Government Areas not being allowed to travel interstate - this would mean checkpoints at VIC/NSW border crossings, the more likely option sounds like the worst-hit LGA's having a lockdown re-imposed.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 554j5.html
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timtam
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:49 am

The situation demonstrates that the various states have been correct to resist the calls to prematurely open their borders.

When a state opens its borders its controls are only as good as the weakest link in the chain wherever that may be.

Throughout this pandemic, the passage of time has shown that every conservative decision has proven to be the correct one. International borders are going to take some time to open.

This is a very very tough situation for airlines and staff. QF might end up being a largely domestic airline for the next 12 months.
 
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:41 am

timtam wrote:
The situation demonstrates that the various states have been correct to resist the calls to prematurely open their borders.

When a state opens its borders its controls are only as good as the weakest link in the chain wherever that may be.

Throughout this pandemic, the passage of time has shown that every conservative decision has proven to be the correct one. International borders are going to take some time to open.

This is a very very tough situation for airlines and staff. QF might end up being a largely domestic airline for the next 12 months.


Whilst I don't like admitting it, sounds like the QLD governments decision is the right one? Feels like it's all getting a bit 'lumpy' again, particularly in VIC
Sadly, I do feel like it going to be a long road back for the aviation industry with a few start, stop, continue moments for at least the remainder of this year
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:46 am

Wanting to keep the thread on the aviation...I can’t help but wonder if JQs latest sale was a tad early selling tickets before borders are open. Could end up being costly if the border remain closed. I see QF have made the refund option more visible lately but this still doesn’t appear to be the case for JQ, who still are only offering credits.
 
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bjwonline
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:41 am

I can't help but feel there are many on this forum and in Australia in general that have completely lost sight of what the country's Covid strategy is. Never was it a hope that Australia would be able to eradicate this virus completely as that is simply impossible. Covid-19 will be with us forever, even once a vaccine is available, the virus will never be completely removed. The whole point of the lockdowns in Australia and across the world was to slow the rate of transmission to buy time for health care system to prepare, have adequate resources and be in the best place possible for the coming onslaught of cases. We in Australia are now in a great position to roll back the restrictions and be able to deal with the cases as they arise. Any thoughts that we can lock down national or state boarders to protect residents from any risk of contracting the virus is ridiculous, people will continue to get this. We must find a way to allow ourselves to prosper, the economy to function and people to move (preferably on aircraft) freely. The longer we spend all closed up with no opportunity to learn how to live in a Covid-safe world, we are actually putting ourselves at a disadvantage to the rest of the world who will learn how to live with this virus and all we will be good at is hiding in fear.

Aviation is a huge employer and has strategic importance to this country. Thoughts that keeping borders closed will only impact holiday makers is worryingly short sighted. Aside from the significant size of the Australian tourism industry, the amount of business form all other industries that rely on free movement of people over short and long distances is by far larger. While teleconferencing might be a great temporary solution, it is no substitute for the real thing and in many cases the deal is done when the effort is made to go the distance, literally. Businesses form all industries will need to resume travel and the longer we make them wait, the more we are holding them back and holding our economy down.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:26 am

IMO there is no way to flatten the curve to an acceptable level aside from zero that allows the economy to function. We thought that there was at the time but given how this virus spreads and the multiplier involved, there is no safe level in the community that allows full opening in the presence of cases.

Im not sure if this was known at the time of the original shutdowns or not, but it has become evident that this is the only path. Victoria is showing what happens if things are relaxed too soon. These family groups havent followed appropriate distancing etc and have caused a flareup which, if was allowed to continue, would have been popping more cases in a fortnight (and still could be) that negate any of the work done to date. Look at NZ and the escape of the disease again given mismanagement by the authorities who were tasked with assessing exemptions.

I do think that this strategy must be better communicated though. Our federal leaders hate being unpopular and won't do it even if it is what we need to hear. The states will keep doing what they need to as they are the real power in all of this. I think the victorian flareup is vindication of the QLD/WA/SA approach.

NSW and Vic cant really isolate given the substantial border but the others can still maintain their closures which will give the ability for some of the country to open more fully sooner than others.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:53 am

The only way going forward is very simple yet a very huge task: test and isolate.

Each state needs to divide its community into blocks, then test everyone living inside the block. If all clear the economic activity can return to normal. If there are cases found, isolate the infected in a facility with care and treatment given. Until the block is all clear. State then can declare it is safe to return to normal. With each blocks return to normal one by one, the whole country can return to normal.

This should be the strategy from day one. Without testing everyone, there is always potential cluster infections. Australia is a big country. If you miss a small spot, with aviation opening up, such small spot or individual can potentially infect the whole mining camps, then spread back to the communities and then the big cities.

If every country can achieve this, the whole world can come back to normal in case no vaccine is found. I felt Australia and New Zealand currently is in a great position to achieve the goal to test everyone and come back to what it is used to be before anyone else and be seen as example on how to get rid of Covid-19. Yes it is too ideal. Yet there should be one country at least try out the strategy.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:55 pm

If the goal is to eradicate new cases in australia, how will the country ever be able to open the international borders? The disease certainly won’t be eradicated in the rest of the world (namely in China, the US, and Europe), so once you do open the borders, you’re putting the australian population at a huge risk, seeing as it doesn’t have herd immunity. I just don’t understand how the international borders will ever open unless there’s a vaccine or cure (which is not a given).
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:12 pm

HM7 wrote:
If the goal is to eradicate new cases in australia, how will the country ever be able to open the international borders?


I dont think that is at all a solved problem yet.

If we get 5 years down the track and only have a few borders open, I won't be surprised.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:56 pm

Getting back to aviation

With the deadline for final bids for VA due, unions are supporting Cyrus along with their members as the preferred buyer of VA.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/eng ... in-rescue/
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eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:51 pm

qf2220 wrote:
HM7 wrote:
If the goal is to eradicate new cases in australia, how will the country ever be able to open the international borders?


I dont think that is at all a solved problem yet.

If we get 5 years down the track and only have a few borders open, I won't be surprised.

IMHO it won't take this long or otherwise the government is risking destroying the whole country's economy in one way or another.

A significant part of economy is relying on people's movements across the borders, not only leisure but more importantly for business activities.

Michael
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:02 pm

And a significant part of the health of the population is reliant on keeping the borders closed.

Some of the new drugs under development (as against the recycled drugs) are progressing well and the outlook might look very different in a few months.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:02 pm

I was looking at going to Broome in late August until I realised Qantas wants to charge me over $1400 return from Melbourne (assuming the borders will open by then).

Am I the only one who thinks fares like this are criminal? Especially in a time like this where we should be encouraging local tourism.
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:15 pm

ben175 wrote:
I was looking at going to Broome in late August until I realised Qantas wants to charge me over $1400 return from Melbourne (assuming the borders will open by then).

Am I the only one who thinks fares like this are criminal? Especially in a time like this where we should be encouraging local tourism.


We all love low fares, but airlines have a choice of going broke through offering uneconomical fares, going broke through having no passengers or trying to break even at least through some sort of balance. Remember business travel has apparently just about evaporated so there are few premium fares to spread the costs. Many have said the days of return to cheap fares are a long way away yet.

Meanwhile, in WA, accommodation in many holiday spots is booked solid for weeks out as locals stay in their state.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:20 pm

ben175 wrote:
I was looking at going to Broome in late August until I realised Qantas wants to charge me over $1400 return from Melbourne (assuming the borders will open by then).

Am I the only one who thinks fares like this are criminal? Especially in a time like this where we should be encouraging local tourism.

I think you may be discovering the exact reason why no one wants to trust Qantas with a monopoly.

IMHO it won't take this long or otherwise the government is risking destroying the whole country's economy in one way or another.

A significant part of economy is relying on people's movements across the borders, not only leisure but more importantly for business activities.

It is testing people's patience but realistically we are still months away from any serious int'l border opening. I originally thought that most routes would be open by Easter next year; I'm now thinking it may be closer to this time next year for Europe and US may even be later than that.
Getting back to aviation

With the deadline for final bids for VA due, unions are supporting Cyrus along with their members as the preferred buyer of VA.

Still wide open it seems. Cyrus supported by some though not all unions. Bain apparently has more funds already lined up whereas Cyrus is still seeking backing. Bain is a much bigger player so has access to much more capital. In addition, some bondholders are also preparing to bid converting their debt to equity. I'm not sure how this would work as they will also need to inject significant capital to satisfy secured creditors as well as recapitalise the business. All 3 have expressed support for PS and his team.

Regardless, it seems there remains a lot of interest so VA looks like emerging from administration in the next month a different airline but being a principally domestic airline may be a very good and profitable place to be for the next year or so.
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:23 am

eamondzhang wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
HM7 wrote:
If the goal is to eradicate new cases in australia, how will the country ever be able to open the international borders?


I dont think that is at all a solved problem yet.

If we get 5 years down the track and only have a few borders open, I won't be surprised.

IMHO it won't take this long or otherwise the government is risking destroying the whole country's economy in one way or another.

A significant part of economy is relying on people's movements across the borders, not only leisure but more importantly for business activities.

Michael


A significant part of the economy is one that isnt riddled with debilitating respiratory illnesses too.

Im not sure we really know where the balance between those two competing factors is just yet.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:57 am

tullamarine wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Getting back to aviation

With the deadline for final bids for VA due, unions are supporting Cyrus along with their members as the preferred buyer of VA.

Still wide open it seems. Cyrus supported by some though not all unions. Bain apparently has more funds already lined up whereas Cyrus is still seeking backing. Bain is a much bigger player so has access to much more capital. In addition, some bondholders are also preparing to bid converting their debt to equity. I'm not sure how this would work as they will also need to inject significant capital to satisfy secured creditors as well as recapitalise the business. All 3 have expressed support for PS and his team.

Regardless, it seems there remains a lot of interest so VA looks like emerging from administration in the next month a different airline but being a principally domestic airline may be a very good and profitable place to be for the next year or so.


Perhaps a little more wide open than we might have thought - Rob Sherrard, one of the founders of Virgin Blue, has been linked to an apparent 11th hour bid for Virgin Australia. This article seems to suggest it's a third bid alongside Cyrus and Bain, though it could be that Sherrard and co. are linking themselves to one of the existing bids. Assuming it is a third bid, it's fair to say there's no guarantee Deloitte will accept it in the same way they didn't accept Brookfield's most recent bid (albeit that was, as far as I know, an unsubstantiated rumour).

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/ ... ne-passes/
 
timtam
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:28 am

Very brave of anyone to buy into VA at this time. The level of risk is off the charts on this acquisition. How can they predict the outlook for the next 6 months? No one knows where this is really going. Will there be a second wave? Third wave? Will there be a vaccine? When?

The odds are increasing on a second wave happening. With this virus, everything is so fluid and things can change in a matter of days.
Last edited by timtam on Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:30 am

The Australian is reporting that the QLD government's "Project Maroon" bid to keen Virgin based in BNE has joined the Cyrus Capital consortium. No mention of how much money QLD has promised or is this might also include any state-based tax breaks and other incentives.

Also interesting, the article says that Cyrus had been "having informal discussions with Virgin management for the past two years, starting from when former Qantas executive John Borghetti was chief executive." I wonder what Cyrus wanted and why JB didn't budge at the time? Now THAT would be an interested story to come out. Cyrus probably wanted to take majority control and move Virgin Australia into the same middle of the market space as Virgin America while JB would have been clinging to his full-service model.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... a39456056c
 
myki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:56 am

tullamarine wrote:
ben175 wrote:
I was looking at going to Broome in late August until I realised Qantas wants to charge me over $1400 return from Melbourne (assuming the borders will open by then).

Am I the only one who thinks fares like this are criminal? Especially in a time like this where we should be encouraging local tourism.

I think you may be discovering the exact reason why no one wants to trust Qantas with a monopoly.

To be fair, outside of the capitals has always been expensive. I've always said that from Melbourne, using points to the major destinations are a waste as the prices can be fairly low. As the points are done on distance, best value for points vs what the cost is to purchase would be Lord Howe Island, followed by any WA regional.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:49 am

timtam wrote:
Very brave of anyone to buy into VA at this time. The level of risk is off the charts on this acquisition. How can they predict the outlook for the next 6 months? No one knows where this is really going. Will there be a second wave? Third wave? Will there be a vaccine? When?

The odds are increasing on a second wave happening. With this virus, everything is so fluid and things can change in a matter of days.


On the other hand I'd wager that if things calm down but Oz borders are closed for another year then its now or never for a hybrid Virgin. With QF mothballing most of its widebody fleet and with no substantial international network to rely on it would level the playing field for Virgin and might be their best chance to get back on their knees.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:29 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
timtam wrote:
Very brave of anyone to buy into VA at this time. The level of risk is off the charts on this acquisition. How can they predict the outlook for the next 6 months? No one knows where this is really going. Will there be a second wave? Third wave? Will there be a vaccine? When?

The odds are increasing on a second wave happening. With this virus, everything is so fluid and things can change in a matter of days.


On the other hand I'd wager that if things calm down but Oz borders are closed for another year then its now or never for a hybrid Virgin. With QF mothballing most of its widebody fleet and with no substantial international network to rely on it would level the playing field for Virgin and might be their best chance to get back on their knees.


75x 737 v 75x 737s seems like an pretty level playing field, VA might have an little more luck being that probably already had an lower amount of International passengers on there domestic flights . Were as QF probably had an higher amount of domestic passengers on there domestic flights.

With the prospect of no even Tasman travel for the rest of the year now, it seems like VA wouldn’t be to bad of an place.
 
timtam
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:56 am

Its not just about international travel. Domestic travel is going to be tough. Just opening the interstate borders does not mean travel will return back to near normal levels. Hard to imagine too many corporates allowing non essential travel. It seems possible that the corporate travel market could be depressed for quite some time.

This situation has demonstrated that a lot of corporate travel is not really required. Most business can be done without travelling. Yes, face to face meetings traditionally have more impact. However there is now bit of a stigma attached to face to face meetings with people who you dont know well - I imagine even more so if they have travelled from interstate. Plus everyone in business has become comfortable with using video calls.

The VA bidders are very brave and must have invested in a very good crystal ball.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:29 am

qf2220 wrote:

A significant part of the economy is one that isnt riddled with debilitating respiratory illnesses too.

Im not sure we really know where the balance between those two competing factors is just yet.


This is the call the various governments need to make, what we can see is varying approaches around the world:

1) Go down the NZ approach and go full eradication of the virus which means that they won't open up the borders until other countries basically have zero community transmission,
2) Go down Australia's approach which is a suppression strategy where you get the numbers down initially and then accept and manage any ongoing cases. This means a much earlier opening of borders than NZ.
3) Go down Europe's approach and start opening up borders even though the virus isn't fully under control.
4) US/Brazil - Don't give a hoot about the virus and open up the economy and rely on people to practice social distancing.

Whilst people were understanding of the initial need to lockdown, the uptick in cases in Victoria shows people are beginning to run out of patience with the restrictions. If you go down NZ's route, their borders may not open up for another 6-12 months. I'm not close enough to NZ's economy, but their central bank is considering negative interest rates for the economy, so it's evident that NZ's economy has taken a big hit. Our economies are so reliant on the international movement of people and capital, so simply shutting yourself off to the rest of the world would result in a significant drop in GDP.

Ultimately we live in a capitalist society, where money makes the world go round. Would we all accept a material reduction in our standard of living if it meant that the vulnerable people in the population are spared from the virus? - That is the million dollar question....
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HM7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:22 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

A significant part of the economy is one that isnt riddled with debilitating respiratory illnesses too.

Im not sure we really know where the balance between those two competing factors is just yet.


This is the call the various governments need to make, what we can see is varying approaches around the world:

1) Go down the NZ approach and go full eradication of the virus which means that they won't open up the borders until other countries basically have zero community transmission,
2) Go down Australia's approach which is a suppression strategy where you get the numbers down initially and then accept and manage any ongoing cases. This means a much earlier opening of borders than NZ.
3) Go down Europe's approach and start opening up borders even though the virus isn't fully under control.
4) US/Brazil - Don't give a hoot about the virus and open up the economy and rely on people to practice social distancing.

Whilst people were understanding of the initial need to lockdown, the uptick in cases in Victoria shows people are beginning to run out of patience with the restrictions. If you go down NZ's route, their borders may not open up for another 6-12 months. I'm not close enough to NZ's economy, but their central bank is considering negative interest rates for the economy, so it's evident that NZ's economy has taken a big hit. Our economies are so reliant on the international movement of people and capital, so simply shutting yourself off to the rest of the world would result in a significant drop in GDP.

Ultimately we live in a capitalist society, where money makes the world go round. Would we all accept a material reduction in our standard of living if it meant that the vulnerable people in the population are spared from the virus? - That is the million dollar question....

That is an extremely misleading way to frame the question. I could say “would we all accept never leaving our state for the rest of our lives if it meant stopping a disease whose median age of death is 80?” and probably get a different response. I don’t mean any offense, but the issue is much more complicated than a choice between money and lives, and to frame it as so suppresses sincere voices of dissent. Anyways, can we get back to aviation :D
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:18 pm

HM7 wrote:
That is an extremely misleading way to frame the question. I could say “would we all accept never leaving our state for the rest of our lives if it meant stopping a disease whose median age of death is 80?” and probably get a different response. I don’t mean any offense, but the issue is much more complicated than a choice between money and lives, and to frame it as so suppresses sincere voices of dissent. Anyways, can we get back to aviation :D


I am not sure what is misleading about the question?

This is the fundamental question being posed around the world, save the economy or save lives? It may seem like I'm trivialising the situation, but when you boil it down, thats what it comes down to.

We're fortunate that in Australia, the Government has been able to use fiscal support to step in during this crisis, but the reality is the level of economic support cannot continue indefinitely. Some countries like Brazil (or is it just their wacky President), have taken a position where it is the economy first.

I'm not advocating a particular position, simply stating the visibly different approaches taken by governments around the world. How governments form their response has a massive impact on QF/VA and the wider economy, if state borders are shut for another 6 months, VA mk2 may not see the light of day. It's a fine balancing act, so I'm glad I'm not the one who needs to make the call.
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:44 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
1) Go down the NZ approach and go full eradication of the virus which means that they won't open up the borders until other countries basically have zero community transmission,
2) Go down Australia's approach which is a suppression strategy where you get the numbers down initially and then accept and manage any ongoing cases. This means a much earlier opening of borders than NZ.


I dont know if Australia isnt actually on strategy 1 but hasn't realised it.

If NZ is on Strategy 1, they won't be opening the borders to us if we are also not on Strategy 1 IMO.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:48 am

timtam wrote:
Its not just about international travel. Domestic travel is going to be tough. Just opening the interstate borders does not mean travel will return back to near normal levels. Hard to imagine too many corporates allowing non essential travel. It seems possible that the corporate travel market could be depressed for quite some time.

This situation has demonstrated that a lot of corporate travel is not really required. Most business can be done without travelling. Yes, face to face meetings traditionally have more impact. However there is now bit of a stigma attached to face to face meetings with people who you dont know well - I imagine even more so if they have travelled from interstate. Plus everyone in business has become comfortable with using video calls.

The VA bidders are very brave and must have invested in a very good crystal ball.


Corporate travel was not just about the 1 hour meeting that is now being done online. It was also about the side conversation and cultivation of relationships with other, secondary people you might have seen say on a day in Melbourne. It was also a perk, with some travellers (me included in a former life) making weekend trips out of a Friday/Monday meeting in Melbourne.

I dont think we will return to the full normal but at the same time our lives will never be fully online either.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:58 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
We're fortunate that in Australia, the Government has been able to use fiscal support to step in during this crisis, but the reality is the level of economic support cannot continue indefinitely. Some countries like Brazil (or is it just their wacky President), have taken a position where it is the economy first.


Some countries like Chile, dont have the fiscal support and their population is left with the decision of get food or get corona.

The rest of the world will be battling this thing for a long time. Hence our strategy of closed borders is in my view a fixed and necessary thing. Which means we need to eradicate the virus here so we can have as open a domestic economy as possible.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:00 am

qf2220 wrote:
If NZ is on Strategy 1, they won't be opening the borders to us if we are also not on Strategy 1 IMO.


And the Kiwis are beginning to think that
(Plus they've got an election in 3 months. Similar to some of the decision making in Qld)

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/12190 ... le-is-dead
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:04 am

qf2220 wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
1) Go down the NZ approach and go full eradication of the virus which means that they won't open up the borders until other countries basically have zero community transmission,
2) Go down Australia's approach which is a suppression strategy where you get the numbers down initially and then accept and manage any ongoing cases. This means a much earlier opening of borders than NZ.


I dont know if Australia isnt actually on strategy 1 but hasn't realised it.

If NZ is on Strategy 1, they won't be opening the borders to us if we are also not on Strategy 1 IMO.


The problem Australia has is that the Commonwealth, NSW and Victoria (and the ACT as an extension of NSW) are working towards Strategy 2, while the other states and territories are closer to Strategy 1.

This is why the borders are such a contentious issue. The Commonwealth and South Eastern states say that our 'testing and tracing' regime is pretty comprehensive and therefore we should start returning to as close to normal as possible, while the other states look at community transmission in Vic, and NSW to a lessor extent, and say 'no way'.

Now that the NSW Government is advising against travel to Melbourne, albeit not closing the border, I think we will increasingly end up closer to 1 by default, even though I thought 2 was more likely only a couple of weeks ago.
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benjjk
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:30 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
1) Go down the NZ approach and go full eradication of the virus which means that they won't open up the borders until other countries basically have zero community transmission,
2) Go down Australia's approach which is a suppression strategy where you get the numbers down initially and then accept and manage any ongoing cases. This means a much earlier opening of borders than NZ.


I dont know if Australia isnt actually on strategy 1 but hasn't realised it.

If NZ is on Strategy 1, they won't be opening the borders to us if we are also not on Strategy 1 IMO.


The problem Australia has is that the Commonwealth, NSW and Victoria (and the ACT as an extension of NSW) are working towards Strategy 2, while the other states and territories are closer to Strategy 1.

This is why the borders are such a contentious issue. The Commonwealth and South Eastern states say that our 'testing and tracing' regime is pretty comprehensive and therefore we should start returning to as close to normal as possible, while the other states look at community transmission in Vic, and NSW to a lessor extent, and say 'no way'.

Now that the NSW Government is advising against travel to Melbourne, albeit not closing the border, I think we will increasingly end up closer to 1 by default, even though I thought 2 was more likely only a couple of weeks ago.


Spot on. In the beginning all governments were on the same page of 2), being ready to accept flareups here and there. But then things went better than expected, zero cases in each of the smaller states. Suddenly the premiers have decided to cling on to that, and it became a race to remove the restrictions.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that if each state had a small number of cases instead of zero, domestic aviation would be coming back a lot sooner.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:18 am

Cyrus says they will honour all Velocity points if they are successful in being the winning bid for VA

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... s-are-safe
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:48 am

South African repatriation flight SA2985 departed SYD-for JNB yesterday after a 2 day delay due to a faulty data computer

Image

Image

Image

https://twitter.com/www16Right/status/1 ... 83424?s=20
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:58 am

Qantas to announce its future direction over the next week. Qantas is hoping to avoid forced redundancies. A source close to the matter indicated that early retirement, voluntary redundancies and pilots agreeing to be paid fewer than the minimum hours due to the lack of flying.

Last week Qantas extended all cancellations on international travel to the end of October (with the exception of New Zealand) but will likely be extended well into 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL4N2DZ19F
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Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:02 am

Realising there's still a bit to play out in the VA ownership deal, but could we possibly see Bain and Cyrus come together for the ownership of VA?

They seem to be moving closer and closer together with what they're offering.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:06 am

Obzerva wrote:
Realising there's still a bit to play out in the VA ownership deal, but could we possibly see Bain and Cyrus come together for the ownership of VA?

They seem to be moving closer and closer together with what they're offering.

Unlikely.... Bain has already sorted its funding sources so, if it is selected,it is hard to see why it would engage with Cyrus. In many respects, their plans appear similar which probably isn't that surprising given they are working from the same data.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:08 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas to announce its future direction over the next week. Qantas is hoping to avoid forced redundancies. A source close to the matter indicated that early retirement, voluntary redundancies and pilots agreeing to be paid fewer than the minimum hours due to the lack of flying.

Last week Qantas extended all cancellations on international travel to the end of October (with the exception of New Zealand) but will likely be extended well into 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL4N2DZ19F

QF would be hoping to avoid forced redundancies which tend to be more expensive than voluntary redundancies.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:32 am

Qatar has extended flights to BNE till the end of October

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... s-brisbane
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:55 am

Obzerva wrote:
Realising there's still a bit to play out in the VA ownership deal, but could we possibly see Bain and Cyrus come together for the ownership of VA?

They seem to be moving closer and closer together with what they're offering.


It certainly seems to be the case of late that the respective bids are becoming quite similar to one another. However I doubt very much they’d co-bid (no puns there, sorry); it’ll be a winner takes all deal.

Whilst both parties have indicated they’re satisfied with the management team and restructure plans going forward, I personally think the winner will be determined by: 1) Outright purchase price, 2) Amount of capital injection, and 3) Timeframe for turnaround.

Hopefully when the result is announced, they’ll provide a solid detail what each party offered for a good analysis.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:05 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas to announce its future direction over the next week. Qantas is hoping to avoid forced redundancies. A source close to the matter indicated that early retirement, voluntary redundancies and pilots agreeing to be paid fewer than the minimum hours due to the lack of flying.

Last week Qantas extended all cancellations on international travel to the end of October (with the exception of New Zealand) but will likely be extended well into 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL4N2DZ19F


While it’s perfectly clear that no business, especially an airline, wants to be throwing capital out the door at the moment. But do you think there might be some possibility that QF may consider taking on some A321NEOs to replace A330s for transcontinental flights and possibly some trans Tasman? I’m not suggesting a huge number, but circa 8 frames, or thereabouts.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
gpasternak
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:28 am

qf789 wrote:
Getting back to aviation

With the deadline for final bids for VA due, unions are supporting Cyrus along with their members as the preferred buyer of VA.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/eng ... in-rescue/


I might have missed it earlier, but other than a potentially better relationship with one buyer over another, does this have any impact on who is actually selected by Deloitte?
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ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:28 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
Realising there's still a bit to play out in the VA ownership deal, but could we possibly see Bain and Cyrus come together for the ownership of VA?

They seem to be moving closer and closer together with what they're offering.


It certainly seems to be the case of late that the respective bids are becoming quite similar to one another. However I doubt very much they’d co-bid (no puns there, sorry); it’ll be a winner takes all deal.

Whilst both parties have indicated they’re satisfied with the management team and restructure plans going forward, I personally think the winner will be determined by: 1) Outright purchase price, 2) Amount of capital injection, and 3) Timeframe for turnaround.

Hopefully when the result is announced, they’ll provide a solid detail what each party offered for a good analysis.


Quite often for deals like this, the headline "maximum" price doesn't always win - the administrator is also looking at completion risk. Therefore, quite often the deal with least conditions (conditions precedent or subsequent), least obligations/commitments from the selling party, and fastest closing date, with be preferred where prices are not significantly different.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:14 am

But do you think there might be some possibility that QF may consider taking on some A321NEOs to replace A330s for transcontinental flights and possibly some trans Tasman?


Not sure many airlines will be taking deliveries full stop at the moment.
Cash is king and they have an excess of aircraft.
 
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csturdiv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:05 pm

qf2048 wrote:
Flypelican to commence seasonal flights between CBR and BNK from July 3rd.
Probably not a bad idea. Only got to fill 19 seats. I'm sure there would be plenty of Canberrans looking to escape the cold.


I flew them a few years ago, Newcastle - Sydney. Great outfit. I think there were 6 of us on the flight. This was after Anzac Day the year we had that big storm that rained for days and damaged the terminal at Newcastle. Still have their green plastic luggage tag on my suitcase.
An American expat from the ORD area living and working in SYD
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:45 am

gpasternak wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Getting back to aviation

With the deadline for final bids for VA due, unions are supporting Cyrus along with their members as the preferred buyer of VA.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/eng ... in-rescue/


I might have missed it earlier, but other than a potentially better relationship with one buyer over another, does this have any impact on who is actually selected by Deloitte?


Employees are creditors and therefore eligible to vote. In that context, employees make up a large proportion of the total number of creditors, so ultimately could have a lot of influence voting-wise; likewise, the unions have a degree of influence with the employees. So, if several of the unions are on board with Cyrus over Bain that could play out through the voting process.
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:54 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
gpasternak wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Getting back to aviation

With the deadline for final bids for VA due, unions are supporting Cyrus along with their members as the preferred buyer of VA.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/eng ... in-rescue/


I might have missed it earlier, but other than a potentially better relationship with one buyer over another, does this have any impact on who is actually selected by Deloitte?


Employees are creditors and therefore eligible to vote. In that context, employees make up a large proportion of the total number of creditors, so ultimately could have a lot of influence voting-wise; likewise, the unions have a degree of influence with the employees. So, if several of the unions are on board with Cyrus over Bain that could play out through the voting process.


True. Administrators are unlikely to put forward their preferred deal for a vote/approval from the creditors unless they have done their homework and believe they have the support for it to be approved.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:28 am

moa999 wrote:
But do you think there might be some possibility that QF may consider taking on some A321NEOs to replace A330s for transcontinental flights and possibly some trans Tasman?


Not sure many airlines will be taking deliveries full stop at the moment.
Cash is king and they have an excess of aircraft.


Do they need to order NEOs? Could they not add some J seating to the JQ 321 and move them to QF- I don’t believe JQ have received any NEOs yet. In saying this not sure how long the lead time is for new seats? Maybe a project over 12-18months, but this won’t be a quick recovery. If they do receive NEOs could be handy for when Asia starts to slowly reopen.
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:34 am

smi0006 wrote:
Do they need to order NEOs? Could they not add some J seating to the JQ 321 and move them to QF- I don’t believe JQ have received any NEOs yet. In saying this not sure how long the lead time is for new seats? Maybe a project over 12-18months, but this won’t be a quick recovery. If they do receive NEOs could be handy for when Asia starts to slowly reopen.


The initial batch of NEO's are not LR so would not make it to Asia unless from PER/DRW.
 
qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:20 am

Heard on ABC NSW radio this morning on my way to work Rex a threatening to pull out of ARM over airport security screening charges.
Does explain why I saw a QFlink Q400 on FR24 ARM - SYD.

Sounds like the council are standing their ground though. Rex are also in a stoush with Grafton council over fees.

Sounds about right from Rex. Still trying to get Dubbo City council to waive the fees their too.
QFlink were meant to be commencing a brand new route to my City but has been put on hold due to COV 19. Rex not happy about that either.
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