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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:56 am

qf2220 wrote:
The REX strategy will work if they focus on being REX, ie Regional Express. If they start to target the capital city traffic, I feel they will lose their way.

Re Brisbane, just took a look at their route map and am surprised to not see more service northwards... I know a lot of their network in Qld is state govt subsidised tho...

All of their QLD network is state subsidised.
As for the golden triangle- it's short haul and the only place to make money. Once you go north or west it's not worth it if you're a small operator.
I read with alarm Bain's intentions- start with domestic then reintroduce international yikes!
 
FL420FT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:47 am

Tonight (Monday 29th June) on ABC 4 corners show (8.30pm) the main story is called "Grounded"

Australia's aviation crisis and the future of flying. Aviation is a high profile casualty of the coronavirus pandemic, our second major carrier Virgin was on the brink of collapse. What went wrong and is the industry viable?

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/grounded/12397826
 
brucetiki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:56 am

Rex realise that larger aircraft means passengers will have to go through security right :D
The early bird catches the worm, the late bird will be featured on a You Tube video
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:04 am

Is this a sign of desperation, Jetstar offering $8.50 fares to MEL

https://doublebaytoday.com/jetstar-now- ... D4X0mHpCls
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:20 am

DBT is a satirical website. You'd have to pay me to fly to Melbourne at the moment
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:55 am

So REX has gone from a speculative $200m capital injection/equity raise to now raising "at least $30m" to fund capital city services.

5-10 jets means Rex can only offer services every 1-2 hours out of SYD/MEL/BNE compared with QF/VA who offered frequency up to every 30 mins in peak times (pre-COVID).
I don't see REX being a big threat to QF, as REX aren't targeting the business/corporate segment and aren't going down the LCC route either, so JQ has got that segment covered. Their proposed offering is squarely aimed at the new VA. Per the AFR article today:

"Rex's domestic operations will be priced at affordable levels but will also include baggage allowance, meals on board and pre-assigned seating." deputy chairman John Sharp said.

It's certainly an opportunistic play by REX who are trying to take advantage of an aircraft leasing market on it's knees and a wounded VA, but there is reason why leasing rates are so low, there is no demand ! This is going to come down to who has got the deepest pockets, and REX is last on that list, they'd better be pretty confident they can get more than $30m in funding because you can bet QF and a recapitalised VA isn't going to let a newcomer take a portion of the supposed cash cow away, particularly in the early stages of the domestic market recovery where QF and VA will be wanting to recapture their respective shares of the market.

REX has done a good job running a small profitable airline on regional routes over the last 10 years, but there is a big difference between operating 36 seat aircraft on regional routes where often they were the monopoly operator and/or had state government subsidies, to operating 180 seat aircraft against 2 significantly larger incumbents who are not afraid to get their elbows out.
I wish REX well, but I can't see them lasting in the long run, history has shown that the Australian market can only support 2 airline groups, and COVID-19 isn't going to change this dynamic anytime soon.
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Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:17 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
So REX has gone from a speculative $200m capital injection/equity raise to now raising "at least $30m" to fund capital city services.

5-10 jets means Rex can only offer services every 1-2 hours out of SYD/MEL/BNE compared with QF/VA who offered frequency up to every 30 mins in peak times (pre-COVID).
I don't see REX being a big threat to QF, as REX aren't targeting the business/corporate segment and aren't going down the LCC route either, so JQ has got that segment covered. Their proposed offering is squarely aimed at the new VA. Per the AFR article today:

"Rex's domestic operations will be priced at affordable levels but will also include baggage allowance, meals on board and pre-assigned seating." deputy chairman John Sharp said.

It's certainly an opportunistic play by REX who are trying to take advantage of an aircraft leasing market on it's knees and a wounded VA, but there is reason why leasing rates are so low, there is no demand ! This is going to come down to who has got the deepest pockets, and REX is last on that list, they'd better be pretty confident they can get more than $30m in funding because you can bet QF and a recapitalised VA isn't going to let a newcomer take a portion of the supposed cash cow away, particularly in the early stages of the domestic market recovery where QF and VA will be wanting to recapture their respective shares of the market.

REX has done a good job running a small profitable airline on regional routes over the last 10 years, but there is a big difference between operating 36 seat aircraft on regional routes where often they were the monopoly operator and/or had state government subsidies, to operating 180 seat aircraft against 2 significantly larger incumbents who are not afraid to get their elbows out.
I wish REX well, but I can't see them lasting in the long run, history has shown that the Australian market can only support 2 airline groups, and COVID-19 isn't going to change this dynamic anytime soon.


Good summary, to add to that, it’s starting to sound a little Impulse, and I hope for every regional community Rex serve, that isn’t the case.
 
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allrite
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:28 pm

After watching 4 Corners tonight I got the impression Rex would be transporting barrels of pork around. Wonder if they would be interested in targeting the National's resources benefactors as well as the farmers/rural workers.

With regards to Virgin, it was an interesting program. I have long argued that Borghetti's focus on style left them at a disadvantage to Joyce's superior analytical skills when it came to management of the airline.
I like artificial banana essence!
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:55 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
REX has done a good job running a small profitable airline on regional routes over the last 10 years, but there is a big difference between operating 36 seat aircraft on regional routes where often they were the monopoly operator and/or had state government subsidies, to operating 180 seat aircraft against 2 significantly larger incumbents who are not afraid to get their elbows out.
I wish REX well, but I can't see them lasting in the long run, history has shown that the Australian market can only support 2 airline groups, and COVID-19 isn't going to change this dynamic anytime soon.


Fair point re aircraft size and also, they havent been massively profitable over the last 10 years, theyve just eeking out a break even.

If it does go belly up for REX, we can rest assured that the regional network will be quickly snapped up by someone for the value that it brings.

Would be interesting to see if REX consider things like BNE-ABX which by all accounts had decent loading on the Jetgo service.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 am

Loadings doesn't really tell the real story, especially on regional services where some routes may be subsidised by either local councils and/or state governments.
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:25 am

qf789 wrote:
Is this a sign of desperation, Jetstar offering $8.50 fares to MEL

https://doublebaytoday.com/jetstar-now- ... D4X0mHpCls


Fake news. They even name Mike Little as the CEO whoever that is.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:35 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Loadings doesn't really tell the real story, especially on regional services where some routes may be subsidised by either local councils and/or state governments.


Or where pricing allows low yield to have great revenues.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:36 am

moa999 wrote:
DBT is a satirical website. You'd have to pay me to fly to Melbourne at the moment


Its a pretty poor one too - nothing compared Betoota...

I actually think it is a clickbait site for ad revenue more than satirical news...
 
Kent350787
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:39 am

eta unknown wrote:
I read with alarm Bain's intentions- start with domestic then reintroduce international yikes!


There seemed to be some clarification of this being NZ/South Pacific. Perhaps when things open up narrow-bodies to Bali or other near neighbour could work too.

I certainly wouldn't see the 773 coming back.....
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brucetiki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:41 am

qf2220 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
DBT is a satirical website. You'd have to pay me to fly to Melbourne at the moment


Its a pretty poor one too - nothing compared Betoota...

I actually think it is a clickbait site for ad revenue more than satirical news...


No that's The Daily Mail :D
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smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:14 am

ArtV wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Maybe they are planning to pickup the remains of TT and there a320 leases at an bargain price?

Seems like almost an certain death sentence to them, unless they find an investor with very large pockets.

There is no shortage of narrowbodies available for lease but it is a very brave time to be starting completely new services against entrenched competition. Like you, I feel this is probably a recipe for disaster. At least Ozjet had extra space!


I have a different view here - perfect time to have a go for Rex. Based on:
- Competition (VA) in a state of disarray (downsizing, loses staff, repositioning)
- Cheap entry for aircraft leases, with likely more flexibility in the lease contracts
- Existing infrastructure at airports - so unlike a new entrant (eg, Ozjet), they already have staff and facilities to build from
- Marketing the services as expansions from their existing regional service, where a new entrant (or even VA) has to gain trust which is usually price driven. Rex will potentially have a slight advantage.

Now, you could also list as many (more) "cons" to this, but I don't believe it is a "death sentence" or a slam dunk in anyway. Interesting board room discussions, in any event.


I agree, I would also argue VA may have a tough time selling tickets. Whilst their brand isnt damaged, people will lack confidence.

QF wants a competitor - it just wants one it can control, and allow perceptions of an open market. ZL will provide that, without providing real competition. QF will go after VA, but allow ZL some freedoms into grow into the gap. If ZL can manage a scale that allows operational reliability, and enough frequency - I think they have a spot in the market.

If it wasn’t for the QF stake, a merger between Alliance, and Rex could be interesting if both tapped into some capital. I could see a niche for Rex growing to a hybrid airline like B6 - value/hybrid, whatever today’s terms are. I can’t see VA being able to shrink their labour costs, or shake off the current full service style to shrink back to a value carrier, and can’t see the market being big enough for two full service carriers anymore.
 
superjeff
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:44 am

Bain can do something with Virgin, I think. My question is "What?" The Australian public prefers full service - so ULCC isn't going to work; going strictly domestic becomes something akin to Ansett Mark 3??? That isn't going to work either. I'd think a true competitor to QF, and maybe even membership in an alliance (I know, that isn't "cool' these days, but it will provide a measure of international feed, since Bain isn't planning long haul international service. Perhaps Star Alliance would work (because of NZ, primarily, but also airlines like United and Air Canada from North America, and Singapore from Southeast Asia, and Air China) all of which would be likely more reliable partners than Delta, or any of the Asian carriers. But certainly concentrating on domestic (and trans-Tasman) flights.
 
Flymetothemoono
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:17 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
So REX has gone from a speculative $200m capital injection/equity raise to now raising "at least $30m" to fund capital city services.

5-10 jets means Rex can only offer services every 1-2 hours out of SYD/MEL/BNE compared with QF/VA who offered frequency up to every 30 mins in peak times (pre-COVID).
I don't see REX being a big threat to QF, as REX aren't targeting the business/corporate segment and aren't going down the LCC route either, so JQ has got that segment covered. Their proposed offering is squarely aimed at the new VA. Per the AFR article today:

"Rex's domestic operations will be priced at affordable levels but will also include baggage allowance, meals on board and pre-assigned seating." deputy chairman John Sharp said.

It's certainly an opportunistic play by REX who are trying to take advantage of an aircraft leasing market on it's knees and a wounded VA, but there is reason why leasing rates are so low, there is no demand ! This is going to come down to who has got the deepest pockets, and REX is last on that list, they'd better be pretty confident they can get more than $30m in funding because you can bet QF and a recapitalised VA isn't going to let a newcomer take a portion of the supposed cash cow away, particularly in the early stages of the domestic market recovery where QF and VA will be wanting to recapture their respective shares of the market.

REX has done a good job running a small profitable airline on regional routes over the last 10 years, but there is a big difference between operating 36 seat aircraft on regional routes where often they were the monopoly operator and/or had state government subsidies, to operating 180 seat aircraft against 2 significantly larger incumbents who are not afraid to get their elbows out.
I wish REX well, but I can't see them lasting in the long run, history has shown that the Australian market can only support 2 airline groups, and COVID-19 isn't going to change this dynamic anytime soon.
could just get by with 5 jets initially if only did Syd Mel initially.
 
BNEFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:37 am

superjeff wrote:
Bain can do something with Virgin, I think. My question is "What?" The Australian public prefers full service - so ULCC isn't going to work; going strictly domestic becomes something akin to Ansett Mark 3??? That isn't going to work either. I'd think a true competitor to QF, and maybe even membership in an alliance (I know, that isn't "cool' these days, but it will provide a measure of international feed, since Bain isn't planning long haul international service. Perhaps Star Alliance would work (because of NZ, primarily, but also airlines like United and Air Canada from North America, and Singapore from Southeast Asia, and Air China) all of which would be likely more reliable partners than Delta, or any of the Asian carriers. But certainly concentrating on domestic (and trans-Tasman) flights.

Bain have already said it will be a mid-tier/hybrid airline. Think a US/Canadian airline. Levels of economy fares, BOB in Y, Business class, lounges, FF program, status levels.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:54 am

Bain has also stated that they intended on mothballing the B77Ws until 2021 at least, when the market either picks up for them to make a decision to either sell off the 77Ws (and/or) resume LAX flights in partnership with one of the US3 (DL or UA), which included one proposal to trade in the owned 77Ws for 787 leases.

For now (from what I read) Bain's focus is being a all-737 airline focused on Domestic, eventually restarting Short Haul Int. to NZ and 'selected' Pacific Islands within range of the 737s pending on Travel Bubble talks.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:59 am

Victoria has requested to the federal government that all international flights over the next 2 weeks heading to MEL be diverted away from MEL

https://twitter.com/9NewsMelb/status/12 ... 50496?s=20
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anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:11 am

qf789 wrote:
Victoria has requested to the federal government that all international flights over the next 2 weeks heading to MEL be diverted away from MEL

https://twitter.com/9NewsMelb/status/12 ... 50496?s=20


Makes sense while they are dealing with outbreaks caused by Quarantine hotel issues.
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:29 am

Now we know Virgin will be flying again, what is going to happen to Tiger, will they leave Australia all together, or fly under another ownership, or is there a future for Tiger in Australia?
 
cam747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:14 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Now we know Virgin will be flying again, what is going to happen to Tiger, will they leave Australia all together, or fly under another ownership, or is there a future for Tiger in Australia?
Tiger Airways Australia is 100% owned by Virgin, and Bain have already said they don't see a future for the airline or brand. Unlikely we will ever see them flying again in Aus.

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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:15 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Now we know Virgin will be flying again, what is going to happen to Tiger, will they leave Australia all together, or fly under another ownership, or is there a future for Tiger in Australia?

It will be liquidated. It appears Bain is buying the entire business so it will not be interested in Tiger remaining as a competitor. Bain has also not been clear with what it will do with VARA which has a number of profitable FIFO contracts. I suspect it may choose to onsell this business to someone like Alliance including the F100s owned by the business; the A320s will probably be returned to lessors.
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Deano969
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:45 am

Not discussed here was that REX look like they will start to transition to ATRs
That's a sizable capacity increase over the 34 seat SAABs
One would assume that they will need to reduce frequencies, plus would this not be a sizable capital outlay, an expense they do not currently have
How will this affect their viability on regional services?
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:00 am

tullamarine wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
Now we know Virgin will be flying again, what is going to happen to Tiger, will they leave Australia all together, or fly under another ownership, or is there a future for Tiger in Australia?

It will be liquidated. It appears Bain is buying the entire business so it will not be interested in Tiger remaining as a competitor. Bain has also not been clear with what it will do with VARA which has a number of profitable FIFO contracts. I suspect it may choose to onsell this business to someone like Alliance including the F100s owned by the business; the A320s will probably be returned to lessors.


VARA is an interesting one. I wouldn't be surprised if they hold onto it, as i would imagine its profitable? Although if sold Alliance would be a good fit.

The old F100s and A320s are better suited to the Pilbara routes, and also the XCH/CCK route. 737-700s may be suitable if they are keeping the two oddballs in the fleet?
 
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:10 am

superjeff wrote:
Perhaps Star Alliance would work (because of NZ, primarily, but also airlines like United and Air Canada from North America, and Singapore from Southeast Asia, and Air China) all of which would be likely more reliable partners than Delta, or any of the Asian carriers. But certainly concentrating on domestic (and trans-Tasman) flights.


I always felt that Delta was the most consistent and reliable of all of the VA partners. You knew exactly what you would get as a Velocity FF member and it never changed. I can't say that of any of their other alliances
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:29 am

Deano969 wrote:
Not discussed here was that REX look like they will start to transition to ATRs
That's a sizable capacity increase over the 34 seat SAABs
One would assume that they will need to reduce frequencies, plus would this not be a sizable capital outlay, an expense they do not currently have
How will this affect their viability on regional services?


I don’t believe that an ATR42 is that much bigger in size. 48 sears versus 34. Given that they will be offering a “Business Light” product on their proposed NB jets, they may offer something sort of similar. Instead of 2x1 seating, it may just be 2x2 but with a few more inches of legroom. Sell them as a J product till the flight becomes full. If there’s still no buyers, then a Y passenger scores a slightly better seat but has to make do with a bottle of still water as opposed to sparkling (bad CoVid catering joke).

However the ATR72 is a bit of a step up. I’m not well read up on REXs numbers at the moment, so I’m not really certain what routes might require that sort of capacity upgrade.
Cheers,
C1973
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:33 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Now we know Virgin will be flying again, what is going to happen to Tiger, will they leave Australia all together, or fly under another ownership, or is there a future for Tiger in Australia?


Isn’t Tiger an SQ brand? Do they have to pay a license fee to SQ for using it like they have to pay Richard Branson a fee for using the Virgin label?
Cheers,
C1973
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

The other thing I’m curious about with VA 2.0 is what will happen to the slot they were awarded at HND? Is that something they can sub-lease or resell or does the airport take it back?
Cheers,
C1973
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:51 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Given that they will be offering a “Business Light” product on their proposed NB jets, they may offer something sort of similar. .


I haven't seen anything mentioned? They previously said it would be single class.
 
Flymetothemoono
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:53 am

Flymetothemoono wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
So REX has gone from a speculative $200m capital injection/equity raise to now raising "at least $30m" to fund capital city services.

5-10 jets means Rex can only offer services every 1-2 hours out of SYD/MEL/BNE compared with QF/VA who offered frequency up to every 30 mins in peak times (pre-COVID).
I don't see REX being a big threat to QF, as REX aren't targeting the business/corporate segment and aren't going down the LCC route either, so JQ has got that segment covered. Their proposed offering is squarely aimed at the new VA. Per the AFR article today:

"Rex's domestic operations will be priced at affordable levels but will also include baggage allowance, meals on board and pre-assigned seating." deputy chairman John Sharp said.

It's certainly an opportunistic play by REX who are trying to take advantage of an aircraft leasing market on it's knees and a wounded VA, but there is reason why leasing rates are so low, there is no demand ! This is going to come down to who has got the deepest pockets, and REX is last on that list, they'd better be pretty confident they can get more than $30m in funding because you can bet QF and a recapitalised VA isn't going to let a newcomer take a portion of the supposed cash cow away, particularly in the early stages of the domestic market recovery where QF and VA will be wanting to recapture their respective shares of the market.

REX has done a good job running a small profitable airline on regional routes over the last 10 years, but there is a big difference between operating 36 seat aircraft on regional routes where often they were the monopoly operator and/or had state government subsidies, to operating 180 seat aircraft against 2 significantly larger incumbents who are not afraid to get their elbows out.
I wish REX well, but I can't see them lasting in the long run, history has shown that the Australian market can only support 2 airline groups, and COVID-19 isn't going to change this dynamic anytime soon.
could just get by with 5 jets initially if only did Syd Mel initially.

They could have an 0600 , then 0635 out Of Sydney then at 0800 a Mel based aircraft turn around at Sydney & still have a spare aircraft.
 
cam747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:32 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

Isn’t Tiger an SQ brand? Do they have to pay a license fee to SQ for using it like they have to pay Richard Branson a fee for using the Virgin label?


No they're completely separate and have been since 2015. There is no licence fee.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk
 
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a36001
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:33 am

Well I eat my hat. Qantas is planning a little farewell for the 747. Details to be released when Qantas chooses.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:59 am

Deleted
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:01 am

Flymetothemoono wrote:
Flymetothemoono wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
So REX has gone from a speculative $200m capital injection/equity raise to now raising "at least $30m" to fund capital city services.

5-10 jets means Rex can only offer services every 1-2 hours out of SYD/MEL/BNE compared with QF/VA who offered frequency up to every 30 mins in peak times (pre-COVID).
I don't see REX being a big threat to QF, as REX aren't targeting the business/corporate segment and aren't going down the LCC route either, so JQ has got that segment covered. Their proposed offering is squarely aimed at the new VA. Per the AFR article today:

"Rex's domestic operations will be priced at affordable levels but will also include baggage allowance, meals on board and pre-assigned seating." deputy chairman John Sharp said.

It's certainly an opportunistic play by REX who are trying to take advantage of an aircraft leasing market on it's knees and a wounded VA, but there is reason why leasing rates are so low, there is no demand ! This is going to come down to who has got the deepest pockets, and REX is last on that list, they'd better be pretty confident they can get more than $30m in funding because you can bet QF and a recapitalised VA isn't going to let a newcomer take a portion of the supposed cash cow away, particularly in the early stages of the domestic market recovery where QF and VA will be wanting to recapture their respective shares of the market.

REX has done a good job running a small profitable airline on regional routes over the last 10 years, but there is a big difference between operating 36 seat aircraft on regional routes where often they were the monopoly operator and/or had state government subsidies, to operating 180 seat aircraft against 2 significantly larger incumbents who are not afraid to get their elbows out.
I wish REX well, but I can't see them lasting in the long run, history has shown that the Australian market can only support 2 airline groups, and COVID-19 isn't going to change this dynamic anytime soon.
could just get by with 5 jets initially if only did Syd Mel initially.

They could have an 0600 , then 0635 out Of Sydney then at 0800 a Mel based aircraft turn around at Sydney & still have a spare aircraft.

The problem with a small fleet and tight turns is that delays knock on throughout the day and by the end of the day your entire schedule is stuffed. This was Tiger's issue also.
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:18 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I don’t believe that an ATR42 is that much bigger in size. 48 sears versus 34. Given that they will be offering a “Business Light” product on their proposed NB jets, they may offer something sort of similar. Instead of 2x1 seating, it may just be 2x2 but with a few more inches of legroom.


In absolute terms, 14 seats may not seem a lot, but the increase of 14 seats is a 41% increase in capacity vs the Saab 340. In terms of operating cost, the ATR42 is quite a bit more efficient than the Saab's so it's probably circa 10-20% more expensive to operate despite a 41% increase in capacity. Given a number of the regional routes flown by REX rely on subsidies to make them viable, the increase in seat capacity (and hence operating costs) of the ATR42 is problematic. It's why REX have run the Saabs into the ground, there isn't a viable aircraft that has similar seating capacity.
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:31 am

tullamarine wrote:
The problem with a small fleet and tight turns is that delays knock on throughout the day and by the end of the day your entire schedule is stuffed. This was Tiger's issue also.


Yup, Tiger's issue was exacerbated by the fact that small fleet was spread across multiple destinations (SYD/MEL/BNE/CNS/CBR/ADL/OOL) whereas REX will be limited to SYD/MEL/BNE which will in theory mean it is easier to recover if there are delays/weather events.
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Flymetothemoono
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:34 am

tullamarine wrote:
Flymetothemoono wrote:
Flymetothemoono wrote:
could just get by with 5 jets initially if only did Syd Mel initially.

They could have an 0600 , then 0635 out Of Sydney then at 0800 a Mel based aircraft turn around at Sydney & still have a spare aircraft.

The problem with a small fleet and tight turns is that delays knock on throughout the day and by the end of the day your entire schedule is stuffed. This was Tiger's issue also.

7 aircraft would be better. 3 each at Syd & Mel & a spare.

Surely all the money is in peak hour mon-fri ?

So out of both ports

0600, 0640, 0720, then the aircraft from other port start arriving. No need to go hard in middle of day, so could catch up any earlier delays.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:45 am

smi0006 wrote:
I agree, I would also argue VA may have a tough time selling tickets. Whilst their brand isnt damaged, people will lack confidence.


Why would they have a tough time selling tickets? They're a known quantity, have just been freshly recapitalised and have an existing frequent flyer program and base that will continue to operate under the new owner. A lot of people still have points in Velocity which they'll want to continue to earn points and redeem points in, many also have status with Velocity, which they aren't going to just throw out the window.

smi0006 wrote:
QF wants a competitor - it just wants one it can control, and allow perceptions of an open market. ZL will provide that, without providing real competition. QF will go after VA, but allow ZL some freedoms into grow into the gap. If ZL can manage a scale that allows operational reliability, and enough frequency - I think they have a spot in the market.


If QF go after VA they are in effect going after ZL, how could QF just go after VA and leave ZL untouched. The most capacity and hence competition is on the SYD/MEL/BNE routes, which happen to be the same routes ZL intends to fly. If QF throw capacity at SYD/MEL/BNE, how is ZL not going to be impacted?
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:49 am

Flymetothemoono wrote:
7 aircraft would be better. 3 each at Syd & Mel & a spare.
.


But REX have said they intend to fly SYD/MEL/BNE, they only have enough initial capital to lease 5-10 aircraft, so you can't have a small fleet, offer high frequency and fly SYD/MEL/BNE.....
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:51 am

cam747 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:

Isn’t Tiger an SQ brand? Do they have to pay a license fee to SQ for using it like they have to pay Richard Branson a fee for using the Virgin label?


No they're completely separate and have been since 2015. There is no licence fee.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk
And SQ no longer operates under the Tiger brand. The narrowbodies have been rebranded to Scoot.

Tiger Taiwan still exists but is now fully owned by CI (China Airlines)
 
gpasternak
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:11 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
The other thing I’m curious about with VA 2.0 is what will happen to the slot they were awarded at HND? Is that something they can sub-lease or resell or does the airport take it back?


I've been thinking of this as well. Would have been neat to see what VA and ANA could have accomplished, plus the Olympics would have helped out at the start.
I know they are focused on domestic. Hopefully can sublease it until a decision is made about VAs future in international routes. If they flew to AKL, HND, LAX/SFO and code shared with Star Alliance members NZ/NH/UA/AC/CA/BR it might be a small but successful operation.
 
Flymetothemoono
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:13 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
Flymetothemoono wrote:
7 aircraft would be better. 3 each at Syd & Mel & a spare.
.


But REX have said they intend to fly SYD/MEL/BNE, they only have enough initial capital to lease 5-10 aircraft, so you can't have a small fleet, offer high frequency and fly SYD/MEL/BNE.....

Think I read somewhere that they'd fly Syd Mel only firstly, then bne.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:24 pm

Please continue discussion in Australian Aviation Thread - July 2020

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