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TheLifehouse
Posts: 30
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:14 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:34 am

ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:07 am

TheLifehouse wrote:
ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.


Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?
 
TheLifehouse
Posts: 30
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:14 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:29 am

zkncj wrote:
TheLifehouse wrote:
ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.


Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?


Correct and it was also the only Air NZ aircraft in Star Alliance livery.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:22 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
There has been lots of speculation around the 77W replacement in the last year or two, would NZ go with the larger 77X or go Airbus with their A350-1000 or would NZ have a single type widebody aircraft in the form of the 787 for their long haul network.

Has COVID has answered this for us.

Are we going to see the 787-10 kept largely to it's schedule but replace both the 772 and some 77W's with a few more options taken later in the 2020's as global air travel starts to return to pre COVID levels.

Moving from 29 widebody to 22-26 widebody

Now
7x 777-200ER
8x 777-300ER
14x 787-9

Future

8x 787-10
14x 787-9
2-3x 777-300ER (If at all and replaced 2025-2032)

Other way round for the now 777s (8x 77E, 7x 77W).

It quite possibly/probably has made that decision easier.
There are 2 sticking points though. The 789 still doesn’t have the range and payload combination to do ORD and EWR (which have both been discussed by NZ as remaining on the plan). So either they come up with a Code3 (making business and premium both bigger and economy smaller) or Boeing does give a weight bump and perhaps a bit of extra engine improvement (GE). In the short term they can use it while the route is building, but after a few years they’ll be wanting to have full load and freight. There was a ORD-AKL a few months ago that had to spend the first 2 hours of the flight at 26,000ft to be able to make it to AKL with the weather etc. No freight and it wasn’t full. EWR will be worse.

The other sticking point is the eggs in one basket situation. This applies both to issues with an aircraft (as we’ve see with the 787 and the 737Max etc). It also applies to getting the best deal out of the suppliers. Pitting A vs B does get discounts and favourable slots etc. If there is a strong bounce back in aviation (even in 2 years) then that greatly improves the chance of seeing the A350 in NZ colours (all it will take is a vaccine or effective treatment. Also remember all the growth in Nth America happened after the GFC).
14x 789
6x 7810
10x A350

Yip, I meant the other way round, I didn't realize the typo until you pointed it out.

You raise some valid points. It will be interesting to see how the premium market rebounds post COVID. America is key to NZ returning to good health so I fully expect both ORD, EWR to open, although we're a long way away from our next peak season. That'll be NW21/22.

The issue with code-3 will be cost, can NZ afford to refit any -9's? or are they better off using the code-2 with a mask overlay restricting sales for the lighter load. Obviously without additional premium seats that's flushing potential revenue down the drain and increasing your operating cost.

Cost also raises the question around -10 payments and can NZ afford the delivery timeline they currently have or will they need to be deferred.

Personally, I'm optimistic about the future of air travel. I think, it'll be a slow restart and we shouldn't expect too much until 2022 but from there I think we should expect bigger and better things. I wonder if any 77X or A35K order should be explored around this time for delivery 2025+

14* 789
8* 78J
5-8* New aircraft with longer range and higher capacity

Haha yeah I knew you’d know just a typo!

I think how they do the code-3 is by getting rid of code 1 or 2 when the 7810s come along. My understanding is that they intend to use them for Asia etc (with a big economy cabin) and LAX/SFO (if no other aircraft types are purchased). So then you don’t need the economy heavy code 1’s. Alternatively you just upgrade the code-2s and be done with it rather than having 3 subtypes and the 7810.
There will be plenty of bargains out there for new aircraft so would be a good time to order to replace the 77W for when the boom times return (by which point they’ll all be well over 10 years old).
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:24 am

TheLifehouse wrote:
zkncj wrote:
TheLifehouse wrote:
ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.


Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?


Correct and it was also the only Air NZ aircraft in Star Alliance livery.

Which I’m sure isn’t an issue at the moment with the present conditions. At some point they’ll have to paint up another one but they’ll have time to do that.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ516
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:52 pm

zkncj wrote:
TheLifehouse wrote:
ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.


Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?


There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM
 
Gasman
Posts: 2201
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:22 am

NZ6 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
People are funny creatures.

So NZ can cram people into 777s, bombard their senses with cringeworthy safety videos, basically steal their money to give to the shareholders and..... the public love them. But when the airline becomes a genuine, and massive victim of events completely beyond their control they suddenly become the bad guy.

Makes no sense. But then I guess human nature often doesn't.


Perhaps, "people" by in large didn't feel crammed into a 777 or feel bombarded with "cringeworthy" safety videos nor do they feel as if their money was stolen.


Of course they didn't - unless NZ's clientelle is *literally* insane. My opinion is my opinion. I assert it's valid, rather than "right". There's an important difference.

NZ6 wrote:
People have a right to be annoyed now though. Who can dispute that.


Well - I wouldn't dispute people have a right to be annoyed; I would dispute that victim status is a foregone conclusion. It all depends on what lens you use.

When you buy a ticket with an airline, you enter into a business relationship with them that starts when you purchase your ticket and concludes when you collect your bag at the final destination. If a catastrophic, unpredictable, and not directly related to aviation event occurs in the interim (eg. Covid-19, or a war, apocalyptic event of nature) why should ALL the consequences be borne by one party in this relationship? I would have thought that in a fair and just world, both sides would have to suck up some of the crap.

My point therefore in my previous post is that it's somewhat incongruous - that prior to Covid-19 in the eyes of the public, NZ could do no wrong - but now, when they're hanging onto life by a thread they're being cut no slack at all.

I had a refundable ticket worth $10,000 with QF. When the trip was cancelled, I was never offered a refund as an option. I'm sure I'd get one - eventually - if I pushed the point; and I can certainly see that this is quite cynical behaviour on behalf of the airline; but I'm personally happy to let it go. For now.
 
PA515
Posts: 1590
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:24 am

TheLifehouse wrote:
ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.


ZK-OJH had a CHC-CHC test flight on 04 Jun 2020. The 'possible Q300 without titles' could be ATR ZK-MCB.

NZ516 wrote:
There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM


ZK-OJK departed CHC on 08 Feb 2020 and is now H4-SIB with Solomon Airlines.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7435
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:34 am

NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
TheLifehouse wrote:
ZK-OJH is now at CHC with titles painted over, as well as a possible Q300 without titles parked up near where the old ex Qantas 737 is.


Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?


There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM


I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7435
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:08 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
There has been lots of speculation around the 77W replacement in the last year or two, would NZ go with the larger 77X or go Airbus with their A350-1000 or would NZ have a single type widebody aircraft in the form of the 787 for their long haul network.

Has COVID has answered this for us.

Are we going to see the 787-10 kept largely to it's schedule but replace both the 772 and some 77W's with a few more options taken later in the 2020's as global air travel starts to return to pre COVID levels.

Moving from 29 widebody to 22-26 widebody

Now
7x 777-200ER
8x 777-300ER
14x 787-9

Future

8x 787-10
14x 787-9
2-3x 777-300ER (If at all and replaced 2025-2032)

Other way round for the now 777s (8x 77E, 7x 77W).

It quite possibly/probably has made that decision easier.
There are 2 sticking points though. The 789 still doesn’t have the range and payload combination to do ORD and EWR (which have both been discussed by NZ as remaining on the plan). So either they come up with a Code3 (making business and premium both bigger and economy smaller) or Boeing does give a weight bump and perhaps a bit of extra engine improvement (GE). In the short term they can use it while the route is building, but after a few years they’ll be wanting to have full load and freight. There was a ORD-AKL a few months ago that had to spend the first 2 hours of the flight at 26,000ft to be able to make it to AKL with the weather etc. No freight and it wasn’t full. EWR will be worse.

The other sticking point is the eggs in one basket situation. This applies both to issues with an aircraft (as we’ve see with the 787 and the 737Max etc). It also applies to getting the best deal out of the suppliers. Pitting A vs B does get discounts and favourable slots etc. If there is a strong bounce back in aviation (even in 2 years) then that greatly improves the chance of seeing the A350 in NZ colours (all it will take is a vaccine or effective treatment. Also remember all the growth in Nth America happened after the GFC).
14x 789
6x 7810
10x A350

Yip, I meant the other way round, I didn't realize the typo until you pointed it out.

You raise some valid points. It will be interesting to see how the premium market rebounds post COVID. America is key to NZ returning to good health so I fully expect both ORD, EWR to open, although we're a long way away from our next peak season. That'll be NW21/22.

The issue with code-3 will be cost, can NZ afford to refit any -9's? or are they better off using the code-2 with a mask overlay restricting sales for the lighter load. Obviously without additional premium seats that's flushing potential revenue down the drain and increasing your operating cost.

Cost also raises the question around -10 payments and can NZ afford the delivery timeline they currently have or will they need to be deferred.

Personally, I'm optimistic about the future of air travel. I think, it'll be a slow restart and we shouldn't expect too much until 2022 but from there I think we should expect bigger and better things. I wonder if any 77X or A35K order should be explored around this time for delivery 2025+

14* 789
8* 78J
5-8* New aircraft with longer range and higher capacity


While in time traffic will likely recover it will take several years, do NZ even need anything larger than a 789? For flexibility sake build the fleet around 1 type probably with 3 configurations maybe 2 will cover it. And have a code 3 35J 40W 170Y, the 789 is very efficient and I’m not convinced by any talk that NZ can’t afford to operate it with 245 seats, QF have 236.

In the short medium term you would think at least some of the 77W fleet will remain possibly only 4 owned Frames that could do LAX maybe SFO. You have a JV with UA for North America and CX/SQ into HKG/SIN where capacity is shared with those carriers.

Otherwise the 781 is maybe pushed back and is the 77W replacement in SFO/LAX plus beat Asian routes where its efficiency and size is needed most.

It will be interesting, it seems they still want EWR and ORD presumably IAH as well, but with a smaller fleet some destinations will likely go other than LHR/EZE, while smaller aircraft and lower frequencies to others.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:41 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?


There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM


I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.


They seem to be getting pretty comfortable with flying the a321NEO’s Domestically.

Would of think the cost base of the a321NEO would be better than an a320CEO if you can fill it with less flights required.

ZQN has seem some a321NEO ops in the last week two, so defiantly some water testing going on around the 320 fleet
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7435
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:25 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:

There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM


I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.


They seem to be getting pretty comfortable with flying the a321NEO’s Domestically.

Would of think the cost base of the a321NEO would be better than an a320CEO if you can fill it with less flights required.

ZQN has seem some a321NEO ops in the last week two, so defiantly some water testing going on around the 320 fleet



There isn’t any other places to send the more efficient A321’s, may as well make use of there efficiency somewhere.

Is this the first time the A321 has been scheduled into ZQN? There is no shortage of A320s so the 321 can obviously land there, I thought it was also dye space with the extra length?
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:57 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.


They seem to be getting pretty comfortable with flying the a321NEO’s Domestically.

Would of think the cost base of the a321NEO would be better than an a320CEO if you can fill it with less flights required.

ZQN has seem some a321NEO ops in the last week two, so defiantly some water testing going on around the 320 fleet



There isn’t any other places to send the more efficient A321’s, may as well make use of there efficiency somewhere.

Is this the first time the A321 has been scheduled into ZQN? There is no shortage of A320s so the 321 can obviously land there, I thought it was also dye space with the extra length?

Weight limited for both landing and takeoff is my understanding and yeah only 1 gate at ZQN can take it without it being in the way. Of course at the moment that isn’t really a problem.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:05 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Other way round for the now 777s (8x 77E, 7x 77W).

It quite possibly/probably has made that decision easier.
There are 2 sticking points though. The 789 still doesn’t have the range and payload combination to do ORD and EWR (which have both been discussed by NZ as remaining on the plan). So either they come up with a Code3 (making business and premium both bigger and economy smaller) or Boeing does give a weight bump and perhaps a bit of extra engine improvement (GE). In the short term they can use it while the route is building, but after a few years they’ll be wanting to have full load and freight. There was a ORD-AKL a few months ago that had to spend the first 2 hours of the flight at 26,000ft to be able to make it to AKL with the weather etc. No freight and it wasn’t full. EWR will be worse.

The other sticking point is the eggs in one basket situation. This applies both to issues with an aircraft (as we’ve see with the 787 and the 737Max etc). It also applies to getting the best deal out of the suppliers. Pitting A vs B does get discounts and favourable slots etc. If there is a strong bounce back in aviation (even in 2 years) then that greatly improves the chance of seeing the A350 in NZ colours (all it will take is a vaccine or effective treatment. Also remember all the growth in Nth America happened after the GFC).
14x 789
6x 7810
10x A350

Yip, I meant the other way round, I didn't realize the typo until you pointed it out.

You raise some valid points. It will be interesting to see how the premium market rebounds post COVID. America is key to NZ returning to good health so I fully expect both ORD, EWR to open, although we're a long way away from our next peak season. That'll be NW21/22.

The issue with code-3 will be cost, can NZ afford to refit any -9's? or are they better off using the code-2 with a mask overlay restricting sales for the lighter load. Obviously without additional premium seats that's flushing potential revenue down the drain and increasing your operating cost.

Cost also raises the question around -10 payments and can NZ afford the delivery timeline they currently have or will they need to be deferred.

Personally, I'm optimistic about the future of air travel. I think, it'll be a slow restart and we shouldn't expect too much until 2022 but from there I think we should expect bigger and better things. I wonder if any 77X or A35K order should be explored around this time for delivery 2025+

14* 789
8* 78J
5-8* New aircraft with longer range and higher capacity


While in time traffic will likely recover it will take several years, do NZ even need anything larger than a 789? For flexibility sake build the fleet around 1 type probably with 3 configurations maybe 2 will cover it. And have a code 3 35J 40W 170Y, the 789 is very efficient and I’m not convinced by any talk that NZ can’t afford to operate it with 245 seats, QF have 236.

In the short medium term you would think at least some of the 77W fleet will remain possibly only 4 owned Frames that could do LAX maybe SFO. You have a JV with UA for North America and CX/SQ into HKG/SIN where capacity is shared with those carriers.

Otherwise the 781 is maybe pushed back and is the 77W replacement in SFO/LAX plus beat Asian routes where its efficiency and size is needed most.

It will be interesting, it seems they still want EWR and ORD presumably IAH as well, but with a smaller fleet some destinations will likely go other than LHR/EZE, while smaller aircraft and lower frequencies to others.

All depends on how fast a vaccine or treatment is created. If it happens sooner then there will be a V shaped recovery and a lot of pent up demand and less capacity all round to fill.

The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1629
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:37 am

Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Gasman
Posts: 2201
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:21 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?


No, they have been clear they *planned to commence* operating EWR with 789s had Covid-19 not eventuated.

2010 -2019 will come to be remembered as the heyday of commercial aviation, and even at its peak (2019) EWR was a line call to make using an aircraft operating at the limits of its commercially viable range. Kudos to Greg for hyping it up by saying the route might kick off at the end of 2021 - he's clearly attended the NZ induction training seminar - but EWR ain't happening for the foreseeable future.
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3458
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:56 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?


I cannot see any North American services (or EZE), other than LAX, resuming (or for EWR, starting) before the start of the northern summer 2021 season (resulting in the temporary discontinuation of NZ1/2).

Locally, I have to ask though: would NZ consider the AT46 to rationalize the pilots around 3 groups...ATR, A320 family, and B777/B787 (eventually just the B787), and eliminate the Dash 8 fleet (the former Air Nelson fleet)? This would require 23-24 frames. (Currently, NZ owns all of its DH8C and AT76 fleet.) There are lessors and airlines who would likely be glad to buy up the DH8C fleet, but in this new normal---the fewer aircraft types, the better.
 
NZ516
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:14 pm

To buy a fleet of 23 ATR42-600s would be a huge financial outlay into several 100s of millions. Air NZ is in survival mode at the moment so can't afford to spend any additional money on new aircraft. Even the existing aircraft on order might get cancelled or postponed indefinitely till they can afford to take them. The 787-10 order is a massive investment $5 billion approx these costs will be yet to be funded.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:45 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Locally, I have to ask though: would NZ consider the AT46 to rationalize the pilots around 3 groups...ATR, A320 family, and B777/B787 (eventually just the B787), and eliminate the Dash 8 fleet (the former Air Nelson fleet)? This would require 23-24 frames. (Currently, NZ owns all of its DH8C and AT76 fleet.) There are lessors and airlines who would likely be glad to buy up the DH8C fleet, but in this new normal---the fewer aircraft types, the better.


It’s likely when the Q300 fleet needs to be replaced, they won’t be fully replaced.

Would expect the Q300 fleet to be replaced by 10x 72-600s, operating less flights with more seats.

NZ has previously publicly stated the operating cost of the Q300 is around the same as the 72-600 (but with an extra 18 seats)
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:37 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?

The 789 can do it and they intend to start with it, but it’s not a long term prospect to operate it (unless Boeing can give it a significant weight bump).
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:39 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?


I cannot see any North American services (or EZE), other than LAX, resuming (or for EWR, starting) before the start of the northern summer 2021 season (resulting in the temporary discontinuation of NZ1/2).

Locally, I have to ask though: would NZ consider the AT46 to rationalize the pilots around 3 groups...ATR, A320 family, and B777/B787 (eventually just the B787), and eliminate the Dash 8 fleet (the former Air Nelson fleet)? This would require 23-24 frames. (Currently, NZ owns all of its DH8C and AT76 fleet.) There are lessors and airlines who would likely be glad to buy up the DH8C fleet, but in this new normal---the fewer aircraft types, the better.

NZ is looking at electric prop planes to replace the Q300 so will likely keep them going until that happens then transition to them. They will likely then transition the ATR fleet to that too. Right now the ATR is too big for some routes.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:19 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Other way round for the now 777s (8x 77E, 7x 77W).

It quite possibly/probably has made that decision easier.
There are 2 sticking points though. The 789 still doesn’t have the range and payload combination to do ORD and EWR (which have both been discussed by NZ as remaining on the plan). So either they come up with a Code3 (making business and premium both bigger and economy smaller) or Boeing does give a weight bump and perhaps a bit of extra engine improvement (GE). In the short term they can use it while the route is building, but after a few years they’ll be wanting to have full load and freight. There was a ORD-AKL a few months ago that had to spend the first 2 hours of the flight at 26,000ft to be able to make it to AKL with the weather etc. No freight and it wasn’t full. EWR will be worse.

The other sticking point is the eggs in one basket situation. This applies both to issues with an aircraft (as we’ve see with the 787 and the 737Max etc). It also applies to getting the best deal out of the suppliers. Pitting A vs B does get discounts and favourable slots etc. If there is a strong bounce back in aviation (even in 2 years) then that greatly improves the chance of seeing the A350 in NZ colours (all it will take is a vaccine or effective treatment. Also remember all the growth in Nth America happened after the GFC).
14x 789
6x 7810
10x A350

Yip, I meant the other way round, I didn't realize the typo until you pointed it out.

You raise some valid points. It will be interesting to see how the premium market rebounds post COVID. America is key to NZ returning to good health so I fully expect both ORD, EWR to open, although we're a long way away from our next peak season. That'll be NW21/22.

The issue with code-3 will be cost, can NZ afford to refit any -9's? or are they better off using the code-2 with a mask overlay restricting sales for the lighter load. Obviously without additional premium seats that's flushing potential revenue down the drain and increasing your operating cost.

Cost also raises the question around -10 payments and can NZ afford the delivery timeline they currently have or will they need to be deferred.

Personally, I'm optimistic about the future of air travel. I think, it'll be a slow restart and we shouldn't expect too much until 2022 but from there I think we should expect bigger and better things. I wonder if any 77X or A35K order should be explored around this time for delivery 2025+

14* 789
8* 78J
5-8* New aircraft with longer range and higher capacity


While in time traffic will likely recover it will take several years, do NZ even need anything larger than a 789? For flexibility sake build the fleet around 1 type probably with 3 configurations maybe 2 will cover it. And have a code 3 35J 40W 170Y, the 789 is very efficient and I’m not convinced by any talk that NZ can’t afford to operate it with 245 seats, QF have 236.

In the short medium term you would think at least some of the 77W fleet will remain possibly only 4 owned Frames that could do LAX maybe SFO. You have a JV with UA for North America and CX/SQ into HKG/SIN where capacity is shared with those carriers.

Otherwise the 781 is maybe pushed back and is the 77W replacement in SFO/LAX plus beat Asian routes where its efficiency and size is needed most.

It will be interesting, it seems they still want EWR and ORD presumably IAH as well, but with a smaller fleet some destinations will likely go other than LHR/EZE, while smaller aircraft and lower frequencies to others.


Will likely recover?

Air travel will return. There is no doubt in that.

The great unknown is when, which airlines will exist and who will have the money, scale and will to branch out into these long "thin" routes.

The code 2 will reach EWR but a code 3 is ideal. Place more premium seats onboard in lieu of the restricted Y seats. This was NZ's answer, especially when the -10 arrives and some -9's can be removed from Asia and reconfigured/deployed into routes like this.

However - the A350K and 77X could reach ORD/EWR with both higher premium and economy cabins and would also reach LAX/SFO with a much bigger load and full belly of cargo. Something that'll be missed when the 77W exits which is why you can't put a line through this scenario yet.

But... times change and that's why I floated the thought of COVID being the push for NZ to go all 787...
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:29 pm

Gasman wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?


No, they have been clear they *planned to commence* operating EWR with 789s had Covid-19 not eventuated.

2010 -2019 will come to be remembered as the heyday of commercial aviation, and even at its peak (2019) EWR was a line call to make using an aircraft operating at the limits of its commercially viable range. Kudos to Greg for hyping it up by saying the route might kick off at the end of 2021 - he's clearly attended the NZ induction training seminar - but EWR ain't happening for the foreseeable future.


If you stand back and look at the history of commercial aviation, it's continued to grow steadily since evolution of the jet engine. You can show declines overtime such as 2001, 2008 etc and at each event we quickly remember how volatile the airline game is and many cease to exist post the event. Thankfully we've not had anything significant for a while, but there's nothing to suggest aviation won't rebound in time and this will go down in history just like many other major events have but continue to grow into over the coming decades ahead.

As for the USA and specifically EWR, the USA is a critical part of NZ's network and surely the success of IAH. ORD and the planned commencement of EWR satisfies the critics of that.

I'm not sure why you'd rule out a 12 month delay with 18 months lead-in given there's still so much unknown at this current point in time. Especially when you're only working on "survive" mode to use his words.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:35 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
The problem with the 789 is that it struggles with the weight and distance of ORD and EWR. NZ wants full loads and some freight. You have to go to a really low pax count (premium configuration) to get that. That’s ok for QF because LHR is served by another of their own flights as well as by many others (and there’s less freight demand and west bound there are more divert points). QF also does have in general wealthier travellers, more business travellers etc so they can justify a premium configuration. NZ can’t really. Code 3 would really be pushing it especially post CV19 where there is less business travel due to Zoom meetings etc.

Yet amazingly NZ has been clear that it will operate EWR with 789s. Maybe they know more than we do . . .?


Because the -9 can do it.

But it'll have empty Y seats.

Code 3 removes those empty Y seats and replaces some of them with more C or Y+ seats.

You end up with a similar overall pax count onboard but you have more PAX paying $6,000K and less paying $500 and/or spreading out over a seat you can't sell. NZ just doesn't have the code 3 yet and there is/was/are risk/cost/network complexity issues to work through before you spend a chunk of money committing to something like that.

Either way the -9 can do it. It's a question of how they do it.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:20 am

The chances of EWR happening now in the next 24months are pretty low now anyway. By the time EWR happens, likely there will be some mod or improvements available for the 789s that will be able to help it.

Changes of the New Zealand boarders being open by early next year are slim at this stage, so anything long haul is truely going to be on the back burner for an long time.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:41 am

zkncj wrote:
The chances of EWR happening now in the next 24months are pretty low now anyway. By the time EWR happens, likely there will be some mod or improvements available for the 789s that will be able to help it.

Changes of the New Zealand boarders being open by early next year are slim at this stage, so anything long haul is truely going to be on the back burner for an long time.


It's a 12 month delay at this current time. Will that change, who's got a crystal ball? It's too early to rule much in or out this far out.

The travel period wouldn't normally be available for sale until very late this calendar year in normal circumstances anyway and the bookings curve over the Dec/Jan/Feb period for the following year are traditional light anyway. A delay in sale until the end of the 3rd quarter wouldn't be catastrophic for it to launch Nov/Dev 2021 in time for NW peak travel.

By this time, we will have a better understanding around potential vaccines, treatments, early detection, smart border controls or even elimination from various countries.

The official line is EWR will be opened but I find it unlikely they'll bother post the peak season going into NS22 season.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:15 am

I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts as to weather IAH and ORD will necessarily fire up again before EWR starts.

Personally, I don't see anything except LAX for quite a while. NZ issues aside, the USA has huge political uncertainties going forward.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7435
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:17 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Yip, I meant the other way round, I didn't realize the typo until you pointed it out.

You raise some valid points. It will be interesting to see how the premium market rebounds post COVID. America is key to NZ returning to good health so I fully expect both ORD, EWR to open, although we're a long way away from our next peak season. That'll be NW21/22.

The issue with code-3 will be cost, can NZ afford to refit any -9's? or are they better off using the code-2 with a mask overlay restricting sales for the lighter load. Obviously without additional premium seats that's flushing potential revenue down the drain and increasing your operating cost.

Cost also raises the question around -10 payments and can NZ afford the delivery timeline they currently have or will they need to be deferred.

Personally, I'm optimistic about the future of air travel. I think, it'll be a slow restart and we shouldn't expect too much until 2022 but from there I think we should expect bigger and better things. I wonder if any 77X or A35K order should be explored around this time for delivery 2025+

14* 789
8* 78J
5-8* New aircraft with longer range and higher capacity


While in time traffic will likely recover it will take several years, do NZ even need anything larger than a 789? For flexibility sake build the fleet around 1 type probably with 3 configurations maybe 2 will cover it. And have a code 3 35J 40W 170Y, the 789 is very efficient and I’m not convinced by any talk that NZ can’t afford to operate it with 245 seats, QF have 236.

In the short medium term you would think at least some of the 77W fleet will remain possibly only 4 owned Frames that could do LAX maybe SFO. You have a JV with UA for North America and CX/SQ into HKG/SIN where capacity is shared with those carriers.

Otherwise the 781 is maybe pushed back and is the 77W replacement in SFO/LAX plus beat Asian routes where its efficiency and size is needed most.

It will be interesting, it seems they still want EWR and ORD presumably IAH as well, but with a smaller fleet some destinations will likely go other than LHR/EZE, while smaller aircraft and lower frequencies to others.


Will likely recover?

Air travel will return. There is no doubt in that.

The great unknown is when, which airlines will exist and who will have the money, scale and will to branch out into these long "thin" routes.

The code 2 will reach EWR but a code 3 is ideal. Place more premium seats onboard in lieu of the restricted Y seats. This was NZ's answer, especially when the -10 arrives and some -9's can be removed from Asia and reconfigured/deployed into routes like this.

However - the A350K and 77X could reach ORD/EWR with both higher premium and economy cabins and would also reach LAX/SFO with a much bigger load and full belly of cargo. Something that'll be missed when the 77W exits which is why you can't put a line through this scenario yet.

But... times change and that's why I floated the thought of COVID being the push for NZ to go all 787...


I agree it will recover, some experts I have heard say 2023, personally I think the world will hit recession and it will take several years longer than that.

Re the A350K and 77X, you are likely potentially only looking at the 779 now for pax service which is fairly big given the direction NZ have been going, generally speaking aircraft hit max volume before weight, is this the case for NZ generally? And the A35K is that extra type again, now more than ever seems like the time to reduce costs in terms of fleet types, maybe not existing types but adding new ones in future when you don't need to, I still go with an eventual 789/781, 321/320, ATR72-600 and maybe some ATR42-600?

What are the chances of all 777s including 77Ws being retired now? I don't think you could rule it out?
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:47 am

Gasman wrote:
I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts as to weather IAH and ORD will necessarily fire up again before EWR starts.

Personally, I don't see anything except LAX for quite a while. NZ issues aside, the USA has huge political uncertainties going forward.


The way you talk about weather and a fire in the same sentence I'm wondering what it is you mean.... :rotfl:

You're correct though, It'll be LAX for quite a while... I guess that's a very subjective length of time and we can only guess what you have in mind when you say that.

LAX: 98% change being the only route for rest of this year, most will say 100%. SFO will follow then IAH and ORD/EWR will best case be kicking off next of next year but will be subject to some significant health or science improvements

SFO could be first half of the next calendar year or even long odds Dec this year, IAH is hard to say. We'll also have to start looking at how quickly travel is recovering once passengers can start to move. We're 12+ months away at least.

We shouldn't forget HNL which is almost COVID free BUT is extensively connected to the rest of the US.... Could/Would/Should the State of Hawaii do something to protect their tourism industry NZ may return at that point.
 
NZ516
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:43 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

While in time traffic will likely recover it will take several years, do NZ even need anything larger than a 789? For flexibility sake build the fleet around 1 type probably with 3 configurations maybe 2 will cover it. And have a code 3 35J 40W 170Y, the 789 is very efficient and I’m not convinced by any talk that NZ can’t afford to operate it with 245 seats, QF have 236.

In the short medium term you would think at least some of the 77W fleet will remain possibly only 4 owned Frames that could do LAX maybe SFO. You have a JV with UA for North America and CX/SQ into HKG/SIN where capacity is shared with those carriers.

Otherwise the 781 is maybe pushed back and is the 77W replacement in SFO/LAX plus beat Asian routes where its efficiency and size is needed most.

It will be interesting, it seems they still want EWR and ORD presumably IAH as well, but with a smaller fleet some destinations will likely go other than LHR/EZE, while smaller aircraft and lower frequencies to others.


Will likely recover?

Air travel will return. There is no doubt in that.

The great unknown is when, which airlines will exist and who will have the money, scale and will to branch out into these long "thin" routes.

The code 2 will reach EWR but a code 3 is ideal. Place more premium seats onboard in lieu of the restricted Y seats. This was NZ's answer, especially when the -10 arrives and some -9's can be removed from Asia and reconfigured/deployed into routes like this.

However - the A350K and 77X could reach ORD/EWR with both higher premium and economy cabins and would also reach LAX/SFO with a much bigger load and full belly of cargo. Something that'll be missed when the 77W exits which is why you can't put a line through this scenario yet.

But... times change and that's why I floated the thought of COVID being the push for NZ to go all 787...


I agree it will recover, some experts I have heard say 2023, personally I think the world will hit recession and it will take several years longer than that.

Re the A350K and 77X, you are likely potentially only looking at the 779 now for pax service which is fairly big given the direction NZ have been going, generally speaking aircraft hit max volume before weight, is this the case for NZ generally? And the A35K is that extra type again, now more than ever seems like the time to reduce costs in terms of fleet types, maybe not existing types but adding new ones in future when you don't need to, I still go with an eventual 789/781, 321/320, ATR72-600 and maybe some ATR42-600?

What are the chances of all 777s including 77Ws being retired now? I don't think you could rule it out?


The 77Ws are well utilized at the moment doing the cargo contract flying. These are Government subsidised to help out exports. If the financial assistance keeps going they could keep all 7 in service as their is a small profit in it for Air NZ. However if the program is wound down early in a few months. We could expect most to be parked/stored in ASP. Keeping 2-3 active in AKL for ad hoc charters etc.
The 8 strong 777-200s will be a retired and flown to the boneyard within weeks. The 789s are in use most of the time except NZD and NZI.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2201
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:04 pm

There are two things that have to happen for recovery:

- 1. The virus has to go away by whatever mechanism
- 2. The economic and geopolitical situation has to be conducive to the re-creation of markets.

With that said, are there routes that are sufficiciently fundamental to NZ and New Zealand so as to not really be influenced by 2) and would therefore kick off straight away once borders are re-opened? Actually, I can think of quite a few. MEL, SYD, BNE, OOL, NAN, APW, RAR, PEK/PVG, SIN, HNL and LAX are all pretty blue chip as far as NZ is concerned and I'd predict would reactivate ASAP pretty much regardless of what else is going on. But aside from those - routes like EZE, EWR, ORD, IAH will require a lot more ducks to line up in a row to (re) establish and may not happen again for many years, if at all.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:27 pm

Gasman wrote:
There are two things that have to happen for recovery:

- 1. The virus has to go away by whatever mechanism
- 2. The economic and geopolitical situation has to be conducive to the re-creation of markets.

With that said, are there routes that are sufficiciently fundamental to NZ and New Zealand so as to not really be influenced by 2) and would therefore kick off straight away once borders are re-opened? Actually, I can think of quite a few. MEL, SYD, BNE, OOL, NAN, APW, RAR, PEK/PVG, SIN, HNL and LAX are all pretty blue chip as far as NZ is concerned and I'd predict would reactivate ASAP pretty much regardless of what else is going on. But aside from those - routes like EZE, EWR, ORD, IAH will require a lot more ducks to line up in a row to (re) establish and may not happen again for many years, if at all.


Care to elaborate what these "ducks" are?

So you're suggesting. IAH, ORD, EWR will potentially not reopen or if so it'll be years away?

Keen to get your thoughts on the likes of SFO, YVR, KIX, TPE, DPS, ICN, HNL then....
 
NZ516
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:05 pm

Also NRT is off Gasman's list and that route has returned at a modest weekly service. A bit like how it was started originally in 1980 with a weekly DC-8 service.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2201
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:23 am

NZ6 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
There are two things that have to happen for recovery:

- 1. The virus has to go away by whatever mechanism
- 2. The economic and geopolitical situation has to be conducive to the re-creation of markets.

With that said, are there routes that are sufficiciently fundamental to NZ and New Zealand so as to not really be influenced by 2) and would therefore kick off straight away once borders are re-opened? Actually, I can think of quite a few. MEL, SYD, BNE, OOL, NAN, APW, RAR, PEK/PVG, SIN, HNL and LAX are all pretty blue chip as far as NZ is concerned and I'd predict would reactivate ASAP pretty much regardless of what else is going on. But aside from those - routes like EZE, EWR, ORD, IAH will require a lot more ducks to line up in a row to (re) establish and may not happen again for many years, if at all.


Care to elaborate what these "ducks" are?

So you're suggesting. IAH, ORD, EWR will potentially not reopen or if so it'll be years away?


That's exactly what I'm suggesting, yes. The factors/ducks of which I speak are geopolitical and economic forces outside of New Zealand that are beyond our control but are very relevant to inbound traffic. Insofar as the non LAX US routes are concerned, you're talking the economy, employment, whatever crackpot thing Trump's up to at the time, whether China and the US are rattling swords, whether the US is being set ablaze (in the name of love and tolerance) and so on. Sure, these factors could affect LAX too - but LAX is a major hub entry point through which everything else can be consolidated while things rebuild. And also a traditional transfer point for onward travel to Europe.

NZ6 wrote:
Keen to get your thoughts on the likes of SFO, YVR, KIX, TPE, DPS, ICN, HNL then....


SFO - tricky. QF - and to a lesser extent NZ have shown over the years that this is route which can be quickly switched on and off again according to prevailing demand without much risk. That said, getting there via LAX isn't too major a headache, and I think until there is a clear and unequivocal demand for SFO traffic those pax will be routed through LAX.

YVR - similar, but quite seasonal and therefore riskier than SFO. Also heavily dependent on what's happening at Whistler, which is currently shut down and may not open in the 2020 season. If that's the case - well, you can buy maple syrup at Countdown.

KIX - nah. On again off again in the best of times. NRT - which I should've included - will serve this market.

TPE - low yield market, political.

DPS - You'd think so; but NZ know something about this route the rest of us don't, because it's one they only seem to operate somewhat begrudgingly. So no, it doesn't make my list of blue chip destinations that'll be reactivated without too much angst.

ICN - again, no - that market won't recover for a while and the Koreans prefer to fly Korean.

HNL I included - I'd book a trip there now if I could.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:46 am

Looks like COVID19 has had some positive effects for NZ, who knew that they would ever be able to get away with charging $409 Seat Only on AKL-ZQN.

Image
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:15 am

zkncj wrote:
Looks like COVID19 has had some positive effects for NZ, who knew that they would ever be able to get away with charging $409 Seat Only on AKL-ZQN.

Image


To be fair, leading into School Holidays and at the premium domestic winter destination.... Demand far outweighed expectation though so in my opinion more flights should have been added. .
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:29 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Looks like COVID19 has had some positive effects for NZ, who knew that they would ever be able to get away with charging $409 Seat Only on AKL-ZQN.

Image


To be fair, leading into School Holidays and at the premium domestic winter destination.... Demand far outweighed expectation though so in my opinion more flights should have been added. .


It just seems to go against the moral of the whole situation, e.g. everyone else in the tourism market is do what they can do to support the economy as an whole. Yet NZ seems to
be making it hard for people to get to the tourism operators that are struggling.

Adding additional flights shouldn’t be that hard, there is obviously demand for it (and plenty of on ground resource in ZQN).

With the lack of International flights, there is no reason why the International gates at ZQN couldn’t be used for Domestic.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:34 am

Gasman wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
There are two things that have to happen for recovery:

- 1. The virus has to go away by whatever mechanism
- 2. The economic and geopolitical situation has to be conducive to the re-creation of markets.

With that said, are there routes that are sufficiciently fundamental to NZ and New Zealand so as to not really be influenced by 2) and would therefore kick off straight away once borders are re-opened? Actually, I can think of quite a few. MEL, SYD, BNE, OOL, NAN, APW, RAR, PEK/PVG, SIN, HNL and LAX are all pretty blue chip as far as NZ is concerned and I'd predict would reactivate ASAP pretty much regardless of what else is going on. But aside from those - routes like EZE, EWR, ORD, IAH will require a lot more ducks to line up in a row to (re) establish and may not happen again for many years, if at all.


Care to elaborate what these "ducks" are?

So you're suggesting. IAH, ORD, EWR will potentially not reopen or if so it'll be years away?


That's exactly what I'm suggesting, yes. The factors/ducks of which I speak are geopolitical and economic forces outside of New Zealand that are beyond our control but are very relevant to inbound traffic. Insofar as the non LAX US routes are concerned, you're talking the economy, employment, whatever crackpot thing Trump's up to at the time, whether China and the US are rattling swords, whether the US is being set ablaze (in the name of love and tolerance) and so on. Sure, these factors could affect LAX too - but LAX is a major hub entry point through which everything else can be consolidated while things rebuild. And also a traditional transfer point for onward travel to Europe.

NZ6 wrote:
Keen to get your thoughts on the likes of SFO, YVR, KIX, TPE, DPS, ICN, HNL then....


SFO - tricky. QF - and to a lesser extent NZ have shown over the years that this is route which can be quickly switched on and off again according to prevailing demand without much risk. That said, getting there via LAX isn't too major a headache, and I think until there is a clear and unequivocal demand for SFO traffic those pax will be routed through LAX.

YVR - similar, but quite seasonal and therefore riskier than SFO. Also heavily dependent on what's happening at Whistler, which is currently shut down and may not open in the 2020 season. If that's the case - well, you can buy maple syrup at Countdown.

KIX - nah. On again off again in the best of times. NRT - which I should've included - will serve this market.

TPE - low yield market, political.

DPS - You'd think so; but NZ know something about this route the rest of us don't, because it's one they only seem to operate somewhat begrudgingly. So no, it doesn't make my list of blue chip destinations that'll be reactivated without too much angst.

ICN - again, no - that market won't recover for a while and the Koreans prefer to fly Korean.

HNL I included - I'd book a trip there now if I could.


I'm not going to get into a tit for tat debate over things. But year-end American arrivals were 324K prior to COVID which represents something like 0.09% of the American population. There's also an estimated 29m American's who have a desire to travel to NZ (Many more if we included Australia into that pool of potential passengers). This is also on top on NZ and Australia outbound travel connections inbound and outbound connections to/from Canada.

The proportion of Americans who show a desire to travel here is around 8.5% of their overall population and there's likely many more who experts believe would or could be included with more awareness, knowledge and accessibility to NZ.

You can also review the market segmentation and feel reassured to some extent on how effected those that are likely to travel here will be by things like unemployment.

My point to all of this is, yes COVID puts up an immediate and lengthy delay on travel between NZ and the USA and I have no doubt it'll be a slow restart, it's a long long way from having to go back to LAX only.

Just found this as a useful tool

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/media ... mation.pdf
 
NZ6
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:35 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Looks like COVID19 has had some positive effects for NZ, who knew that they would ever be able to get away with charging $409 Seat Only on AKL-ZQN.

Image


To be fair, leading into School Holidays and at the premium domestic winter destination.... Demand far outweighed expectation though so in my opinion more flights should have been added. .


It just seems to go against the moral of the whole situation, e.g. everyone else in the tourism market is do what they can do to support the economy as an whole. Yet NZ seems to
be making it hard for people to get to the tourism operators that are struggling.

Adding additional flights shouldn’t be that hard, there is obviously demand for it (and plenty of on ground resource in ZQN).

With the lack of International flights, there is no reason why the International gates at ZQN couldn’t be used for Domestic.


Agree 1000%.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2201
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:28 am

NZ6 wrote:
I'm not going to get into a tit for tat debate over things. But year-end American arrivals were 324K prior to COVID which represents something like 0.09% of the American population.
Just found this as a useful tool

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/media ... mation.pdf


All, as you say, "prior to Covid". It's all uncertain now. I reckon we'll have a *much* clearer picture by the end of the year but not before. Key will be the Northern Hemisphere avoiding a second Covid wave going into their winter.
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1224
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:35 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Looks like COVID19 has had some positive effects for NZ, who knew that they would ever be able to get away with charging $409 Seat Only on AKL-ZQN.

Image


To be fair, leading into School Holidays and at the premium domestic winter destination.... Demand far outweighed expectation though so in my opinion more flights should have been added. .


It just seems to go against the moral of the whole situation, e.g. everyone else in the tourism market is do what they can do to support the economy as an whole. Yet NZ seems to
be making it hard for people to get to the tourism operators that are struggling.

Adding additional flights shouldn’t be that hard, there is obviously demand for it (and plenty of on ground resource in ZQN).

With the lack of International flights, there is no reason why the International gates at ZQN couldn’t be used for Domestic.


This only seems to be pretty last minute though, and is not that uncommon in "normal" times either. I didn't check ZQN, but for early August there are plenty of seats AKL-CHC for $49... I guess they need to work on building capacity again, and once more seats are available prices will go back down.
 
NZ516
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:04 am

Regarding high domestic tickets. I see Jetstar have seats for sale AKL to ZQN on 1 July for $225 a little bit cheaper return is $95. But later in 3rd August fares are at $64 so most of the cheaper seats have sold.
 
NZ516
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:05 am

CANBERRA BOSS WANTS TRANS-TASMAN FLIGHTS NOW TO SAVE ECONOMY

Canberra Airport’s managing director, Stephen Byron, has continued his campaign to restart trans-Tasman flights from the capital early by writing a formal letter to the government.

In a message sent to cabinet ministers, Byron said that starting the travel ‘bubble’ in a couple of weeks, rather than later in July, was essential to saving the economy.

The news comes after the executive earlier this month publicly called for expressions of interest for the first trans-Tasman flight to Wellington.

“The incremental opening of the trans-Tasman bubble in the first half of July rather than as late as September 1 could be the difference between an economic recession or a deep-seated depression,” Byron wrote in the letter obtained by The Australian.



more;
https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/ ... omy-84165/

Certainly the pressure is on for Tasman flights to start but not sure if there is enough demand for daily flights CBR to WLG. Thinking a daily SYD to AKL would be better to begin with.
 
GW54
Posts: 56
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:05 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:08 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Wasn’t OJH, one of the last remaining International a320CEO’s?


There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM


I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.


Interestingly both OJR and OJS have been in service this week. OJS did a CHC-WLG-CHC routine on Tuesday and OJR same routine Wednesday.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:20 am

NZ516 wrote:
Regarding high domestic tickets. I see Jetstar have seats for sale AKL to ZQN on 1 July for $225 a little bit cheaper return is $95. But later in 3rd August fares are at $64 so most of the cheaper seats have sold.


NZ has up’s most AKL-ZQN (140 flights) to A321NEO’s now, which has helped bring the price down.

Also looks like in July AKL-CHC is getting double daily 789s, oddly the 789 seat maps still have the middle seat blocked out.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7435
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:31 am

GW54 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:

There is still six other international A320CEO's remaining in NZ along with ZKOJH. Many won't be flying again I expect:
ZKOJB
ZKOJD
ZKOJF
ZKOJI
ZKOJK
ZKOJM


I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.


Interestingly both OJR and OJS have been in service this week. OJS did a CHC-WLG-CHC routine on Tuesday and OJR same routine Wednesday.


Hmm that puts that theory to bed then.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3754
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:35 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
GW54 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I would think none will fly for NZ again, and some won’t fly again full stop. I would think the leased domestic birds ZK-OAB, OJQ, OJR and OJS which I’m pretty sure expire in 2021 likely won’t fly again either for NZ.


Interestingly both OJR and OJS have been in service this week. OJS did a CHC-WLG-CHC routine on Tuesday and OJR same routine Wednesday.


Hmm that puts that theory to bed then.


Could be that they have pre-committed cycles/hours on these leased frames that they wont to use up before being returned to lease companies.

Where they could be saving hours/cycles on the owned fleet, to retain value on them.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7435
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:19 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
GW54 wrote:

Interestingly both OJR and OJS have been in service this week. OJS did a CHC-WLG-CHC routine on Tuesday and OJR same routine Wednesday.


Hmm that puts that theory to bed then.


Could be that they have pre-committed cycles/hours on these leased frames that they wont to use up before being returned to lease companies.

Where they could be saving hours/cycles on the owned fleet, to retain value on them.


You could well be right there, I’m quite sure they were 10 year leases and were new in 2011 so expire in 2021.
 
richcandy
Posts: 732
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2001 4:49 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:13 am

Sorry if this is a silly questions. I follow aircraft that I have flown on flightradar24, yes I know childish!

One of them ZK-OXK hasn't flown for a few days does anyone know why. It last flew on the 14th and its next flight isn't scheduled till the 20th.

Alex
 
smartplane
Posts: 1431
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:25 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Hmm that puts that theory to bed then.


Could be that they have pre-committed cycles/hours on these leased frames that they wont to use up before being returned to lease companies.

Where they could be saving hours/cycles on the owned fleet, to retain value on them.


You could well be right there, I’m quite sure they were 10 year leases and were new in 2011 so expire in 2021.

Very likely explanation.

New commercial aircraft leases always include 'normal' use, expressed as a range (lower and upper) of hours and cycles. Go above, and additional charges apply, added to monthly lease for customers with low credit ratings, or added to the end of lease payment (EOL) for blue chip (or if close to the end of the lease). Go below, and a small credit applies, offset against the EOL balloon payment.

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