I just don't see this huge rebound in business travel. As long as there is social distancing and mask wearing the level of personal interaction becomes inhibited and would make sense just to do virtual. And let's face it whether you agree with these "precautions" or not they don't seem to be going away anytime soon. Ditto trade shows and conferences.
Moreover, and I see this already, the bean counters and suits are falling in love with how cheap virtual meetings are but as usual don't critically think or analyze quality of outcomes. So I think there will be this period in which virtual is pushed because of costs but the results are horrible and hence back to some increased business travel.
Finally at an unemployment rate of 30% I can't imagine gobs of leisure travel. I have to wonder is what we are seeing now is travel booked months back (as lots of leisure travel is booked ahead) but the bottom eventually falling out again. AA and WN betting on a resurgence in air travel I believe is one risky bet.
True to some degree, but I believe front office business is just one small aspect of business travel, the majority of travel comes from activities that must happen in person like: construction activity (all phases, all trades), manufacturing adjustments, audits, oversight, the list goes on.
I agree that in some aspects business is going to realize that they can't always rely on virtual meetings over the long term (though some activities will undoubtedly be left permanently virtual.)