Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
admanager
Posts: 284
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:28 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 6:42 pm

Chuska wrote:
AS ABQ-SAT JUN 0.2>0.4[0]
AS CMH-MSP JUN 0.2>0.4[0]
AS IND-STL JUN 0.2>0.4[0]

Alaska extending some tags now from 6/8 thru 613. Appears each week they extend the tags for another week. The SEA-ICT-OKC cancelled for awhile thru 5/26 but has now restarted.

Interesting to see the CHS tag now going to PIT rather than RDU for SEA. I expect it’s been decades since that route was nonstop. This may actually work.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14427
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 6:51 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Agreed. Apart from YXE, YOW’s the only city so far where the cuts are permanent. Makes you wonder how long before other US carriers pull out of transborder markets completely. I can’t see the border opening back up to non-essential travel for at least another 6 months, probably more likely a year or more.


Perhaps I’m missing some nuance from the Canadian side, but I don’t see a case for that long a wholesale border closure. Large portions - though admittedly not all - of both countries have things pretty well under control.


In Canada we don’t view the US as having Covid-19 under control. Proportionally the death rate in the US on a per capita basis is at least 75% higher than in Canada, while the infection rate is 220% higher. In fact, most in Canada don’t view it as under control here yet either, especially in Ontario and Quebec where 60% of the country’s population lives.

Now tie that back to aviation and the border closed to all non-essential travel, it’s not surprising the amount of traffic is down 98% to the USA. It’s still shocking that 2/3 of the US3 are completely pulling out of Canada’s Capital instead of doing month-to-month suspensions. It’s even stranger they’re doing it the same week. Almost makes you think there’s collusion going on with the optics of it.

Domestically in Canada hardly anyone’s travelling either. While AC are growing capacity from April & May’s lows, June will still be at most 1/10 of normal June capacity. In addition, AC have suspended many smaller stations outright. Some are coming back in June at very low frequency, but several are suspended until at least September.


The countrywide numbers in both countries mask gigantic regional variations. Assuming current trends continue, travel like Seattle-Vancouver will likely be okay in a couple of months, especially with improved testing. But something like New York-Toronto is very different. A closed border suggests that no travel is appropriate. That may not even be true now.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1395
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 7:16 pm

delta767 wrote:
Is Spirit dropping GSO permanently or just for the duration of the CARES Act? Seems weird that AVL had a shorter cut than GSO if both were being suspended temporarily.


AVL-MCO isn't currently bookable at all on the NK website, whereas GSO-MCO is currently bookable beginning in November. But my guess is that NK doesn't return to AVL.
 
HardeesBiscuit
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 7:28 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Really hard situation for LAS demand is still so low but with so many cuts , hard to see it even slowly coming back soon either. So many small cities allegiant or frontier flights are what makes it convenient and affordable. Larger cities same thing with spirit and Southwest. LAS is often affordable ,non-stop, and easy. Alot less right now. With Las being such a limited experience on top of all this no clubs, no pool parties, distancing , Plexi glass I can't see demand really coming back anything but very very slowly. LAS might not recover till there is a vaccine The huge cut in flights surely makes a recovery even harder as people won't want to connect or pay higher fares right now. Lost it's advantage . I think the so cal and PHX traffic will be back first as they will drive. Other states it's gonna be a slow recovery for LAS airport , I think we will see 2021 numbers way down, 2020 is a given.


Frontier Spirit and Allegiant can still do well, though. Beach resorts during summer where they have good capacity are better suited for numbers to grow than people heading to Vegas for 1-2% of the normal vegas experience for the foreseeable future.
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 618
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 7:57 pm

AA leaving OAK again. Not a shock given this new reality. Hopefully they’ll return next year when things are hopefully starting to get back to normal.
 
User avatar
DL747400
Posts: 937
Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 8:01 pm

enilria wrote:
I *know* from sources that this is an attempt to get more gates in ATL. While they may be able to squeeze them into their current gate holdings, this will be justification for more common use gates.


Of course you do. :roll: Your post is nothing more than another attempt at starting a rumor and your statement amounts to nothing more than hearsay. Many of your past posts provide ample evidence that you hate anything DELTA-related. Rumor and source dismissed.
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
 
klm617
Posts: 4902
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 10:22 pm

Just to validate enilria claims about what Southwest is trying to do. There is a whole thread here that was created.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446637
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2781
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 10:41 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

Perhaps I’m missing some nuance from the Canadian side, but I don’t see a case for that long a wholesale border closure. Large portions - though admittedly not all - of both countries have things pretty well under control.


In Canada we don’t view the US as having Covid-19 under control. Proportionally the death rate in the US on a per capita basis is at least 75% higher than in Canada, while the infection rate is 220% higher. In fact, most in Canada don’t view it as under control here yet either, especially in Ontario and Quebec where 60% of the country’s population lives.

Now tie that back to aviation and the border closed to all non-essential travel, it’s not surprising the amount of traffic is down 98% to the USA. It’s still shocking that 2/3 of the US3 are completely pulling out of Canada’s Capital instead of doing month-to-month suspensions. It’s even stranger they’re doing it the same week. Almost makes you think there’s collusion going on with the optics of it.

Domestically in Canada hardly anyone’s travelling either. While AC are growing capacity from April & May’s lows, June will still be at most 1/10 of normal June capacity. In addition, AC have suspended many smaller stations outright. Some are coming back in June at very low frequency, but several are suspended until at least September.


The countrywide numbers in both countries mask gigantic regional variations. Assuming current trends continue, travel like Seattle-Vancouver will likely be okay in a couple of months, especially with improved testing. But something like New York-Toronto is very different. A closed border suggests that no travel is appropriate. That may not even be true now.


Even though parts of Canada like BC and Newfoundland are doing very well, it’ll still be a long time before you’ll see anything beyond skeletal transborder services. For example, parts of B.C. are off limits to foreigners. Newfoundland does not want a flood of out-of-province visitors after all the progress they made, especially foreign visitors.

AC are adding a bit back for June and July, but every time they add, they subtract as the month goes on. We’ll see if that trend continues. I think it probably will.
 
NWADTWE16
Posts: 708
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:12 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Sun May 31, 2020 10:51 pm

Overall, still no Business travel and certainly not any , or at least very little of any type of travel Internationally. Who can even consider a trip right now with all the different restrictions. Example try finding a way to get home from China. US carriers are not permitted to go non-stop ( not even sure what the actual ruling is, but DL flights are planned for stop in ICN). Some connections route over LHR, thats a disaster, HKG, disaster, TPE, maybe-but its not really clear.

Domestic U.S. will be stimulated a little, mostly by those who dont care about precautions and lucky me, they all want to come to Florida =-(

Main point: Until the supposed leaders of this planet get working together and set a unified set of guidelines, this is going to drag on and on, with horrible consequences.

Sidenote: I knew LH group was getting way ahead of themselves, now they slash June. Wonder how many people tried to buy any of those flights the past few weeks.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14427
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:30 am

Dominion301 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

In Canada we don’t view the US as having Covid-19 under control. Proportionally the death rate in the US on a per capita basis is at least 75% higher than in Canada, while the infection rate is 220% higher. In fact, most in Canada don’t view it as under control here yet either, especially in Ontario and Quebec where 60% of the country’s population lives.

Now tie that back to aviation and the border closed to all non-essential travel, it’s not surprising the amount of traffic is down 98% to the USA. It’s still shocking that 2/3 of the US3 are completely pulling out of Canada’s Capital instead of doing month-to-month suspensions. It’s even stranger they’re doing it the same week. Almost makes you think there’s collusion going on with the optics of it.

Domestically in Canada hardly anyone’s travelling either. While AC are growing capacity from April & May’s lows, June will still be at most 1/10 of normal June capacity. In addition, AC have suspended many smaller stations outright. Some are coming back in June at very low frequency, but several are suspended until at least September.


The countrywide numbers in both countries mask gigantic regional variations. Assuming current trends continue, travel like Seattle-Vancouver will likely be okay in a couple of months, especially with improved testing. But something like New York-Toronto is very different. A closed border suggests that no travel is appropriate. That may not even be true now.


Even though parts of Canada like BC and Newfoundland are doing very well, it’ll still be a long time before you’ll see anything beyond skeletal transborder services. For example, parts of B.C. are off limits to foreigners. Newfoundland does not want a flood of out-of-province visitors after all the progress they made, especially foreign visitors.

AC are adding a bit back for June and July, but every time they add, they subtract as the month goes on. We’ll see if that trend continues. I think it probably will.


I don’t really understand AC’s strategy. So many of the transborder markets they cut were markets where their revenue management discouraged (or discourages) travel to Ontario and Quebec, so you’d think they would bring more back as the West and Europe come back.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
diverdave
Posts: 702
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:16 am

enilria wrote:
**WN increases ATL from 99 in DEC 2019 to 116 in DEC 2020. Taking advantage of DL shrinking???


It's a long road back. I found a source that AirTran operated 211 Wednesday departures back in 2011.

I would expect an energetic response by DL to any serious attempt by WN to reclaim ATL customers.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:03 am

I am not going to say exactly who I work for but we are in the “top 5-10” of corporate travel spend of essentially every us based airline and major hotel chain, and our marque clients are many of the Fortune top 100.

Basically we aren’t even thinking about having anyone come into the office for anything but essential services that can’t be done remote until September. All internal travel, training is essentially on hold until at least Q4 if not 2021.

We have been advised if there is some necessary client and sales related travel we are going to start enabling that a bit in July and August but only after going through a rigorous risk review and approval process.

Most of our clients have indicated similar protocol and are in no hurry to get their white collar workforce back into the office until August or September.

There is no hurry to bring back any scale of business travel anytime soon. A slow ramp after 4th of July maybe, but not any sort of meaningful recovery to start until at least Q4 if not 2021.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3451
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:37 pm

admanager wrote:
Chuska wrote:
AS ABQ-SAT JUN 0.2>0.4[0]
AS CMH-MSP JUN 0.2>0.4[0]
AS IND-STL JUN 0.2>0.4[0]

Alaska extending some tags now from 6/8 thru 613. Appears each week they extend the tags for another week. The SEA-ICT-OKC cancelled for awhile thru 5/26 but has now restarted.

Interesting to see the CHS tag now going to PIT rather than RDU for SEA. I expect it’s been decades since that route was nonstop. This may actually work.


Maybe they think for summer they can pick up a few people wanting to go to CHS from PIT? Probably more likely than RDU going to CHS.
 
Runway28L
Posts: 2092
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:12 pm

admanager wrote:
Chuska wrote:
AS ABQ-SAT JUN 0.2>0.4[0]
AS CMH-MSP JUN 0.2>0.4[0]
AS IND-STL JUN 0.2>0.4[0]

Alaska extending some tags now from 6/8 thru 613. Appears each week they extend the tags for another week. The SEA-ICT-OKC cancelled for awhile thru 5/26 but has now restarted.

Interesting to see the CHS tag now going to PIT rather than RDU for SEA. I expect it’s been decades since that route was nonstop. This may actually work.

Allegiant has been flying CHS-PIT since April 2018.

Was originally seasonal, then got moved up to year-round last year.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14427
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:36 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am not going to say exactly who I work for but we are in the “top 5-10” of corporate travel spend of essentially every us based airline and major hotel chain, and our marque clients are many of the Fortune top 100.

Basically we aren’t even thinking about having anyone come into the office for anything but essential services that can’t be done remote until September. All internal travel, training is essentially on hold until at least Q4 if not 2021.

We have been advised if there is some necessary client and sales related travel we are going to start enabling that a bit in July and August but only after going through a rigorous risk review and approval process.

Most of our clients have indicated similar protocol and are in no hurry to get their white collar workforce back into the office until August or September.

There is no hurry to bring back any scale of business travel anytime soon. A slow ramp after 4th of July maybe, but not any sort of meaningful recovery to start until at least Q4 if not 2021.


The picture you're painting is accurate on the nationwide scale, I think, but I wonder whether there might be some pockets of demand in less-affected areas that come back more quickly. My company is regional in a less affected region. We have people (not everyone) back in all offices and are doing a limited amount of car travel now because most of the areas accessible to us by car are relatively unaffected; I can see that transitioning to some air travel over the summer. But most of my peers in relatively more affected areas are still at home and looking to be there for the foreseeable future.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5139
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:54 pm

enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I don’t view the July added capacity by DL as anything but realizing they hacked away too much from ATL and added back based on the existing inventory that either didn’t cancel or rebooked on the consolidated flight schedule.

Antidotally, people had the opinion that DL hacked for away than the other US3 and their connectivity and even availability was challenging.

ATL running at 3-4 flights per day in small and medium domestic markets and 5-6 in large markets and hubs feels about right.
Connectivity at 1-2xdaily doesn’t work.


Agreed, DL's adds are also in July, WN's ATL adds are in December and some of November.

DL cut ATL too severely if they wanted to continue operating at 60% capacity systemwide. I have been seeing a lot of sold out flights thru ATL as a result

Yes, Southwest never moves quickly on anything. Delta is taking advantage of that by moving much sooner.


Or this is just DL following through after they said they were going to add flights back in June/July, and not a blistering fast response to WN adding SDF & OKC from ATL six months from now.

Cubsrule wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am not going to say exactly who I work for but we are in the “top 5-10” of corporate travel spend of essentially every us based airline and major hotel chain, and our marque clients are many of the Fortune top 100.

Basically we aren’t even thinking about having anyone come into the office for anything but essential services that can’t be done remote until September. All internal travel, training is essentially on hold until at least Q4 if not 2021.

We have been advised if there is some necessary client and sales related travel we are going to start enabling that a bit in July and August but only after going through a rigorous risk review and approval process.

Most of our clients have indicated similar protocol and are in no hurry to get their white collar workforce back into the office until August or September.

There is no hurry to bring back any scale of business travel anytime soon. A slow ramp after 4th of July maybe, but not any sort of meaningful recovery to start until at least Q4 if not 2021.


The picture you're painting is accurate on the nationwide scale, I think, but I wonder whether there might be some pockets of demand in less-affected areas that come back more quickly. My company is regional in a less affected region. We have people (not everyone) back in all offices and are doing a limited amount of car travel now because most of the areas accessible to us by car are relatively unaffected; I can see that transitioning to some air travel over the summer. But most of my peers in relatively more affected areas are still at home and looking to be there for the foreseeable future.


If there is any upside to this, summer time is already the lowest point of the year for corporate travel.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14427
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
If there is any upside to this, summer time is already the lowest point of the year for corporate travel.


It'll be interesting to see what happens in the summer and fall as things open back up. We've gotten rid of the travel we can but there is some work that is going to require travel that we are putting off until travel becomes more tenable. I expect an opening-related bump even if opening occurs in a traditionally slow business travel period.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4817
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:31 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
If there is any upside to this, summer time is already the lowest point of the year for corporate travel.


It'll be interesting to see what happens in the summer and fall as things open back up. We've gotten rid of the travel we can but there is some work that is going to require travel that we are putting off until travel becomes more tenable. I expect an opening-related bump even if opening occurs in a traditionally slow business travel period.

Once competitor salesman start flying around and taking businesses are the stay at home companies going to allow that to continue?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:44 pm

We by and large aren't even at the point where "salesmen" is even in a position to travel since his prospective clients are either still all working from home, their organizations have strict no visitor policies, or in other cases economic / budget austerity measures.

Obviously, this disproportionately impacts companies with large presence in large cities, but like I said above the guidance that large companies are giving is white collar workforce work from home until at least August / September. Thus no business travel if people aren't even working in offices to conduct sales and business development activities.

Business travel that is necessary for in-person in operations, manufacturing, facilities, distribution centers, and infrastructure tasks is obviously coming back sooner as needed.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2781
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:41 pm

I forgot to note earlier in the thread that this means both AA and DL will be pulling out of YOW for the 2nd time.

pmAA dropped ORD before coming back post-US merger.

pmDL dropped ATL before coming back post-NW merger.
 
klm617
Posts: 4902
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:33 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
We by and large aren't even at the point where "salesmen" is even in a position to travel since his prospective clients are either still all working from home, their organizations have strict no visitor policies, or in other cases economic / budget austerity measures.

Obviously, this disproportionately impacts companies with large presence in large cities, but like I said above the guidance that large companies are giving is white collar workforce work from home until at least August / September. Thus no business travel if people aren't even working in offices to conduct sales and business development activities.

Business travel that is necessary for in-person in operations, manufacturing, facilities, distribution centers, and infrastructure tasks is obviously coming back sooner as needed.



And while there is a lot of that type of activity going on in Michigan being it's probably one of the biggest manufacturing bases in the country if not the biggest. I think our state will weather the storm rather well.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
DL747400
Posts: 937
Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:34 pm

klm617 wrote:
Just to validate enilria claims about what Southwest is trying to do. There is a whole thread here that was created.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446637


IMO, that separate thread validates nothing at all in terms of the claim in this thread by the OP saying that "knows" that the schedule adds are an attempt to secure more gates in ATL. The entire thread is based on a very short verbal reply from a WN VP to a question asked within an informal town hall setting. In that same thread, there are almost as many people dismissing the statement as there are supporters who believe that it speaks to corporate strategy. So no, this doesn't validate the OP's claim whatsoever.

Will WN compete? YES
Will DL compete? YES
Will WN attack? PROBABLY
Will DL respond aggressively? ABSOLUTELY
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 841
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:02 pm

Looks like we can expect more OAG changes and flight cancellations across the US with the recent violent current events that cannot be mentioned upon the forum.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 588
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:21 pm

I just don't see this huge rebound in business travel. As long as there is social distancing and mask wearing the level of personal interaction becomes inhibited and would make sense just to do virtual. And let's face it whether you agree with these "precautions" or not they don't seem to be going away anytime soon. Ditto trade shows and conferences.

Moreover, and I see this already, the bean counters and suits are falling in love with how cheap virtual meetings are but as usual don't critically think or analyze quality of outcomes. So I think there will be this period in which virtual is pushed because of costs but the results are horrible and hence back to some increased business travel.

Finally at an unemployment rate of 30% I can't imagine gobs of leisure travel. I have to wonder is what we are seeing now is travel booked months back (as lots of leisure travel is booked ahead) but the bottom eventually falling out again. AA and WN betting on a resurgence in air travel I believe is one risky bet.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:36 pm

The travel right now is mostly the following:

1) Visiting friends and relatives
2) Essential business & government related operational, infrastructure, or supply-chain related travel
3) Leisure to beach markets
4) A sub-set of primarily 20-30 year olds, without kids who can work remotely and have disposable income traveling around to work from anywhere
5) A sub-set of those who lived in small apartment and condos that repositioned to either work virtually from their parents house, or a family vacation home/condo instead of being holed-up in a small NYC apartment for example

Like I said above business travel is a slow, slow recovery that really isn't going to get much traction until at least fall and well into 2021.
Leisure demand for air travel is going to be lackluster too since the summer is already toast and outside of perhaps a bit of a bump around the holidays, isn't going to be back to any big levels until Feb/Mar 2021.
Last edited by PSU.DTW.SCE on Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
DBCoop3r
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:28 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:39 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
I just don't see this huge rebound in business travel. As long as there is social distancing and mask wearing the level of personal interaction becomes inhibited and would make sense just to do virtual. And let's face it whether you agree with these "precautions" or not they don't seem to be going away anytime soon. Ditto trade shows and conferences.

Moreover, and I see this already, the bean counters and suits are falling in love with how cheap virtual meetings are but as usual don't critically think or analyze quality of outcomes. So I think there will be this period in which virtual is pushed because of costs but the results are horrible and hence back to some increased business travel.

Finally at an unemployment rate of 30% I can't imagine gobs of leisure travel. I have to wonder is what we are seeing now is travel booked months back (as lots of leisure travel is booked ahead) but the bottom eventually falling out again. AA and WN betting on a resurgence in air travel I believe is one risky bet.


True to some degree, but I believe front office business is just one small aspect of business travel, the majority of travel comes from activities that must happen in person like: construction activity (all phases, all trades), manufacturing adjustments, audits, oversight, the list goes on.

I agree that in some aspects business is going to realize that they can't always rely on virtual meetings over the long term (though some activities will undoubtedly be left permanently virtual.)
 
umichman
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:49 pm

klm617 wrote:
Just to validate enilria claims about what Southwest is trying to do. There is a whole thread here that was created.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446637


I could see WN going after DL in focus cities (a number of which only have hub flights for June and July), but ATL would seem a much bigger challenge as they could never come to close to DL's destinations and frequencies.
 
HardeesBiscuit
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:56 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
We by and large aren't even at the point where "salesmen" is even in a position to travel since his prospective clients are either still all working from home, their organizations have strict no visitor policies, or in other cases economic / budget austerity measures.

Obviously, this disproportionately impacts companies with large presence in large cities, but like I said above the guidance that large companies are giving is white collar workforce work from home until at least August / September. Thus no business travel if people aren't even working in offices to conduct sales and business development activities.

Business travel that is necessary for in-person in operations, manufacturing, facilities, distribution centers, and infrastructure tasks is obviously coming back sooner as needed.

A lot of my white collar professional services clients are easing back into the office starting yesterday. Some are returning 100%, others transitioning back at about 50% (work at home 2 days, in office 3 days). There is a sensitivity that it really will depend on what schools do in August, if they have kids back in school or not. If they are kept home, they'll have employees stay home to match.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 588
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:08 pm

Some offices are reopening but with the usual safety restrictions. Getting 10+ people in a conference room is still probably a no-no at most companies. Unfortunately every CEO out there is afraid of being pointed out as uncaring of COVID 19. And while not optimal planning meetings, requirement gathering, design sessions, etc. can be done virtual. True certain activities like estimating out a construction bid or repair of infrastructure must be done onsite. But add into that companies will be slashing CapEx budgets and putting off infrastructure upgrades and even deferred maintenance.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4707
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:40 pm

Business travel is still a no-go for most large companies. All NYC airports thrive off business travel. Until that comes back they will always see a big hit. Don't see 2019 demand or flights in 2021
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26159
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:53 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
Example try finding a way to get home from China. US carriers are not permitted to go non-stop ( not even sure what the actual ruling is, but DL flights are planned for stop in ICN).


U.S. carriers are permitted to fly non-stop to China. Delta is choosing not to so that crew can overnight in Seoul, and the crew flying to Shanghai simply does an ICN-PVG-ICN turn.
a.
 
HunterATL
Posts: 64
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:21 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
Example try finding a way to get home from China. US carriers are not permitted to go non-stop ( not even sure what the actual ruling is, but DL flights are planned for stop in ICN).


U.S. carriers are permitted to fly non-stop to China. Delta is choosing not to so that crew can overnight in Seoul, and the crew flying to Shanghai simply does an ICN-PVG-ICN turn.


U.S. carriers are presently not permitted to offer non-stop service between China and the U.S. China is only permitting airlines to operate reduced versions of their flight schedules between the two countries as those schedules existed on March 12. Since no U.S. carrier operated any flights between the two countries on that date, China is not permitting U.S. carriers to resume limited service. This is the basis of the announced future ban of Chinese carriers from serving the United States.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26159
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:15 am

HunterATL wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
Example try finding a way to get home from China. US carriers are not permitted to go non-stop ( not even sure what the actual ruling is, but DL flights are planned for stop in ICN).


U.S. carriers are permitted to fly non-stop to China. Delta is choosing not to so that crew can overnight in I Seoul, and the crew flying to Shanghai simply does an ICN-PVG-ICN turn.


U.S. carriers are presently not permitted to offer non-stop service between China and the U.S. China is only permitting airlines to operate reduced versions of their flight schedules between the two countries as those schedules existed on March 12. Since no U.S. carrier operated any flights between the two countries on that date, China is not permitting U.S. carriers to resume limited service. This is the basis of the announced future ban of Chinese carriers from serving the United States.


No, that is not accurate. Airlines are allowed to resume non-stop service between China and the U.S. but at an unreasonable once weekly frequency. That lead to today’s announcement banning Chinese carriers from the States.
a.
 
HunterATL
Posts: 64
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:13 am

MAH4546 wrote:
HunterATL wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

U.S. carriers are permitted to fly non-stop to China. Delta is choosing not to so that crew can overnight in I Seoul, and the crew flying to Shanghai simply does an ICN-PVG-ICN turn.


U.S. carriers are presently not permitted to offer non-stop service between China and the U.S. China is only permitting airlines to operate reduced versions of their flight schedules between the two countries as those schedules existed on March 12. Since no U.S. carrier operated any flights between the two countries on that date, China is not permitting U.S. carriers to resume limited service. This is the basis of the announced future ban of Chinese carriers from serving the United States.


No, that is not accurate. Airlines are allowed to resume non-stop service between China and the U.S. but at an unreasonable once weekly frequency. That lead to today’s announcement banning Chinese carriers from the States.


That is not correct. Because U.S. carriers operated no flights between China and U.S. on March 12, China will not permit them to resume any service at this time. The DOT order makes that clear:

On March 26, 2020, the Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC) issued a “ Notice on Further Reducing International Passenger Flights during the Epidemic Prevention and Control Period”(“the CAAC Notice”), which provides that Chinese airlines could maintain just one weekly scheduled passenger flight on one route to any given country. Pursuant to the CAAC Notice, foreign airlines could maintain just one weekly scheduled passenger flight on one route to China. Furthermore, the CAAC Notice provides that Chinese and foreign carriers are required to use their international passenger flight schedules from March 12, 2020, as a maximum limit of the capacity, in terms of frequency of passenger service, that they may maintain in any given international market until further notice. By March 12, U.S. airlines had completely ceased flying passenger service to and from China; however, Chinese carriers generally maintained a degree of passenger service during that timeframe. In establishing an arbitrary “baseline” date of March 12, 2020, as well as the other restrictions cited above, the CAAC Notice effectively precludes U.S. carriers from reinstating scheduled passenger flights to and from China and operating to the full extent of their bilateral rights, while Chinese carriers are able to maintainscheduled passenger service to and from each foreign market served as of the baseline date, including the United States. The Department views these restrictions as inconsistent with the Agreement and has voiced its objections to the CAAC.


https://www.regulations.gov/contentStre ... ntType=pdf (emphasis added).
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26159
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:12 am

HunterATL wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
HunterATL wrote:

U.S. carriers are presently not permitted to offer non-stop service between China and the U.S. China is only permitting airlines to operate reduced versions of their flight schedules between the two countries as those schedules existed on March 12. Since no U.S. carrier operated any flights between the two countries on that date, China is not permitting U.S. carriers to resume limited service. This is the basis of the announced future ban of Chinese carriers from serving the United States.


No, that is not accurate. Airlines are allowed to resume non-stop service between China and the U.S. but at an unreasonable once weekly frequency. That lead to today’s announcement banning Chinese carriers from the States.


That is not correct. Because U.S. carriers operated no flights between China and U.S. on March 12, China will not permit them to resume any service at this time. The DOT order makes that clear:

On March 26, 2020, the Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC) issued a “ Notice on Further Reducing International Passenger Flights during the Epidemic Prevention and Control Period”(“the CAAC Notice”), which provides that Chinese airlines could maintain just one weekly scheduled passenger flight on one route to any given country. Pursuant to the CAAC Notice, foreign airlines could maintain just one weekly scheduled passenger flight on one route to China. Furthermore, the CAAC Notice provides that Chinese and foreign carriers are required to use their international passenger flight schedules from March 12, 2020, as a maximum limit of the capacity, in terms of frequency of passenger service, that they may maintain in any given international market until further notice. By March 12, U.S. airlines had completely ceased flying passenger service to and from China; however, Chinese carriers generally maintained a degree of passenger service during that timeframe. In establishing an arbitrary “baseline” date of March 12, 2020, as well as the other restrictions cited above, the CAAC Notice effectively precludes U.S. carriers from reinstating scheduled passenger flights to and from China and operating to the full extent of their bilateral rights, while Chinese carriers are able to maintainscheduled passenger service to and from each foreign market served as of the baseline date, including the United States. The Department views these restrictions as inconsistent with the Agreement and has voiced its objections to the CAAC.


https://www.regulations.gov/contentStre ... ntType=pdf (emphasis added).


No, again inaccurate. While true that U.S. carriers operated no flights at that time, all airlines get a minimum of one weekly flight. Your emphasis doesn’t change that. It just speaks to the greater issue they can’t operate a more comprehensive schedule.
a.
 
Atlwarrior
Posts: 476
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:53 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Also, I'll had a few more thoughts on this thinking it through a little bit more.

1) WN likely had this mini-ATL build-up in the works before COVID. With their expansion plans obviously pending a strong 2020 and the MAX (eventually) returning to service, they were going to grow places around the network, and ATL was one of the places in line to get more growth. They weren't dumb, this wasn't pulled out of thin air. WN was aware just how strong a market ATL is and it has/had such a strong demand for business travel it was natural to try to capture a slice of the market. DL had been spilling traffic from ATL all over the place, by design. This wasn't likley something just pulled out of thin air in the past 30 days, they've been looking at this for awhile.

2) In essence, in the current environment, they are playing with house money to go and launch these flights. We are seeing unprecedented actions from airlines in terms of their network and scheduling practices. Close-in cancelations and pulling down chunks of capacity is the name of the game. Nobody, including WN has a realistic schedule out there at this point for Nov, Dec, Jan. Its either their prior year default at this point of just a pie-in-the-sky SWAG. Right now everyone is still making enormous adjustments to June and July, let alone even really concerned about Q4 at this point. How many people are even thinking about booking travel for Q4 at this point? There is ZERO incentive right now to book travel that far in advance. So heck why not just throw out a schedule and see what sticks. Then publish a more realistic schedule in Sept/Oct.
You heard it here now, but I have a very hard time believing WN will be flying ATL-AUS 4x in November 2020.


I agree. Moreover, metro Atlanta is among the fastest-growing cities in the US, and Microsoft, and Google recently announce huge expansions for the city. I believe things were in work before COVID as well.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: OAG Changes 5/31/2020: JUNE GLOOM; WN Makes Move for ATL;AA Exits OAK-PHX,PHL-YOW;DL Exits YOW-DTW/LGA;FI Exits PHL/

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:55 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
HunterATL wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

No, that is not accurate. Airlines are allowed to resume non-stop service between China and the U.S. but at an unreasonable once weekly frequency. That lead to today’s announcement banning Chinese carriers from the States.


That is not correct. Because U.S. carriers operated no flights between China and U.S. on March 12, China will not permit them to resume any service at this time. The DOT order makes that clear:

On March 26, 2020, the Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC) issued a “ Notice on Further Reducing International Passenger Flights during the Epidemic Prevention and Control Period”(“the CAAC Notice”), which provides that Chinese airlines could maintain just one weekly scheduled passenger flight on one route to any given country. Pursuant to the CAAC Notice, foreign airlines could maintain just one weekly scheduled passenger flight on one route to China. Furthermore, the CAAC Notice provides that Chinese and foreign carriers are required to use their international passenger flight schedules from March 12, 2020, as a maximum limit of the capacity, in terms of frequency of passenger service, that they may maintain in any given international market until further notice. By March 12, U.S. airlines had completely ceased flying passenger service to and from China; however, Chinese carriers generally maintained a degree of passenger service during that timeframe. In establishing an arbitrary “baseline” date of March 12, 2020, as well as the other restrictions cited above, the CAAC Notice effectively precludes U.S. carriers from reinstating scheduled passenger flights to and from China and operating to the full extent of their bilateral rights, while Chinese carriers are able to maintainscheduled passenger service to and from each foreign market served as of the baseline date, including the United States. The Department views these restrictions as inconsistent with the Agreement and has voiced its objections to the CAAC.


https://www.regulations.gov/contentStre ... ntType=pdf (emphasis added).


No, again inaccurate. While true that U.S. carriers operated no flights at that time, all airlines get a minimum of one weekly flight. Your emphasis doesn’t change that. It just speaks to the greater issue they can’t operate a more comprehensive schedule.


This is not true at all and you’re flat out wrong. Do you pay attention to the news? This has been in every single media outlet- NO flights by US carriers allowed to China. Do a simple google search and read the news stories. Hence the whole reason the US has COMPLETELY blocked flights by Chinese carriers- a reciprocal action.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos