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Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:39 pm

Have we become so entrenched that we require the Government to make every decision? If Kl, AF, LH, LX and others are flying to Ireland there must be some passengers. If EI don't try they won't know what's possible.
As for Ryan in transport, anyone is better than Ross!
 
JAmie2k9
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:46 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Have we become so entrenched that we require the Government to make every decision? If Kl, AF, LH, LX and others are flying to Ireland there must be some passengers. If EI don't try they won't know what's possible.
As for Ryan in transport, anyone is better than Ross!


Germany has lifted non-essential trips advise as have many mainland countires hence why these operators are starting to resume a larger schedule. There will always be passengers, non-essential is interpreted by everyone differently.

I think they have made the caculation there isn't sufficent demand to make it worth their while resuming a larger schedule right and increase losses even more.
 
ELBOB
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:32 am

JAmie2k9 wrote:
They are losing less by keeping aircraft grounded.


Not when the majority of their fleet is leased. Every hour sat on the apron is more money lost forever.
 
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Phen
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:39 am

ELBOB wrote:
Not when the majority of their fleet is leased. Every hour sat on the apron is more money lost forever.

There is no evidence to suggest that demand is back to significant levels and money is being missed out on. Just because other carriers are operating flights does not mean these flights are full or even half full. LH for example has been granted a large bailout and so can afford to go around flying empty flights if necessary. You can be sure EI are monitoring traffic on their website and the number of bookings actually being made. They will increase the schedule as and when it is required.

There are still major barriers to holidaymakers and business travellers; the 14-day requested isolation period is still in place as well as the total lack of clarity regarding when and to where travel will be permitted. Add to this the potential for any destination to be blacklisted again very quickly if cases of Covid spike again. Why would EI bump up their schedule and try to sell seats when the travelling public don't even yet know when or where the will be able to travel to?
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:46 am

The point made was accurate - sitting on the ground is less costly than operating a loss making flight - assuming the aircraft is leased. If owned then there could be an outside case for operating some flights. My missed point was that all the noises from EI are very negatuve., all of the time!
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:24 am

Fliplot wrote:
The point made was accurate - sitting on the ground is less costly than operating a loss making flight - assuming the aircraft is leased. If owned then there could be an outside case for operating some flights. My missed point was that all the noises from EI are very negatuve., all of the time!


IAG are being very conservative about the resumption of operations. Partially, I suspect, to deal with some problematic employee relations, in particular at BA. I do think they are being realistic, although FR and media reports are talking up "air bridges" and "foreign holidays" the appetite from the public just isn't there, judging by polling. Price for summer holidays, x% off and fares do seem low for the summer season, which is telling.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:13 am

Conservative or playing a game? The linger I whine the more likely rhe staff will roll over? The levels of devastation announced by airlines is starting to smell fishy (and I dont just mean Icelandicairr)
 
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Phen
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:47 pm

Fliplot wrote:
The levels of devastation announced by airlines is starting to smell fishy

Do you mean to say that you think they are exaggerating how serious this downturn is?
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:17 pm

The downturn is extreme! Sime of the remedies suggest opportunism on tge part 8f the airlines. How is it possuble that a 10bln rescue package can still result in the possible loss of 20,000 jobs and rhe permanent parking of more than 150 aircraft?
 
TUGMASTER
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:24 pm

Fliplot wrote:
The downturn is extreme! Sime of the remedies suggest opportunism on tge part 8f the airlines. How is it possuble that a 10bln rescue package can still result in the possible loss of 20,000 jobs and rhe permanent parking of more than 150 aircraft?



VERY good question
 
tonystan
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:30 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Conservative or playing a game? The linger I whine the more likely rhe staff will roll over? The levels of devastation announced by airlines is starting to smell fishy (and I dont just mean Icelandicairr)


I totally agree. Currently going “through it” myself right now. The fear and panic created by those at the top during the early days in order to get the staff to role over just didn’t work and now the “softly softly” with a spot of smoke and mirrors to the media has begun. Being a veteran of airline upheaval from 9/11 to SARS, the fuel crises, liquid bombers, the global economic downturn, management dirty tricks, MERS and a multitude of other events I feel Im just seeing it over and over again and dancing the dance! This is by far the worst event to occur (it’s making the post 9/11 downturn feel like a mere rowdy spring break) but the tactics by management never seem to change and the outlook is always multiplied by a factor of 1000 to the staff and consumer in the hope they can do a bit of a spring clean.

I still can’t understand how airline management seem to lack the ability to work with staff in order to find a way through these crises as and when they happen.
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:17 pm

I wish you well with clear sky's soon! Airlines love getting rid of the unwanted at times of crisis - past masters at the art!!
If any airline has received recent Government aid then we SHOULD ALL be involved. It's our money too!
 
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Phen
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:29 pm

Indeed the treatment of airline employees in IAG but BA in particular has been reprehensible. I hope you are right in that management are overstating the severity of the downturn for their own causes and that a recovery will begin soon so that these cuts and job losses can be exposed for what they are and stemmed. However unfortunately there are no obvious signs of this, particularly for EI. The USA is getting worse, not better and the Irish government has no real desire to enable international travel again soon with these veiled threats of countries being blacklisted at a moment's notice. You would need a crystal ball at this stage to be able to make any kind of predictions about what the next 12 months will look like.
 
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IrishTexan
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:14 pm

FR threatens to close SNN & ORK bases if pilot pay cuts are not implemented.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingn ... 07966.html
 
Vicenza
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:56 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Fliplot wrote:
The point made was accurate - sitting on the ground is less costly than operating a loss making flight - assuming the aircraft is leased. If owned then there could be an outside case for operating some flights. My missed point was that all the noises from EI are very negatuve., all of the time!


although FR and media reports are talking up "air bridges" and "foreign holidays" the appetite from the public just isn't there, judging by polling. Price for summer holidays, x% off and fares do seem low for the summer season, which is telling.


I would have to disagree as many of the major tour operators have announced a substantial increase in bookings in the past week compared t previous.Yes, this of course is relative, but to say that the appetite from the public just isn't there is somewhat erronous. What 'polls' are you citing? I certainly have seen no great/huge discounts.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:04 pm

Phen wrote:
Indeed the treatment of airline employees in IAG but BA in particular has been reprehensible. I hope you are right in that management are overstating the severity of the downturn for their own causes and that a recovery will begin soon so that these cuts and job losses can be exposed for what they are and stemmed. However unfortunately there are no obvious signs of this, particularly for EI. The USA is getting worse, not better and the Irish government has no real desire to enable international travel again soon with these veiled threats of countries being blacklisted at a moment's notice. You would need a crystal ball at this stage to be able to make any kind of predictions about what the next 12 months will look like.


Although this will probably be taken wrongly, I actually have little sympathy for EI in this particularly respect. For far too long they have solely been US-centric and seem to think it's the only area on a world map. When major international airlines can introduce service to Dublin, it to me shows EI have been completely blinkered.......markets are/have been clearly there (pro Covid19 at this stage) but EI simply never made the effort.
 
VFRonTop
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:20 pm

Vicenza wrote:
I would have to disagree as many of the major tour operators have announced a substantial increase in bookings in the past week compared t previous.Yes, this of course is relative, but to say that the appetite from the public just isn't there is somewhat erronous. What 'polls' are you citing? I certainly have seen no great/huge discounts.


According to IATA data international passenger demand is down 98.4% compared to 2019 (data to April). There has been an increase of 30% from April 2020 to May 2020 but that's up from from a paltry 4% to 5.7% of 2019 demand.

Under IATAs own modelling (which assumes lockdowns are extended into the third quarter due to 2nd wave infections) global traffic will be 34% below 2019 levels in 2021 and 41% below its pre-Covid-19 predictions.

That means pre-COVID levels of demand would not be regained until 2024.

Fliplot wrote:
The downturn is extreme! Sime of the remedies suggest opportunism on tge part 8f the airlines. How is it possuble that a 10bln rescue package can still result in the possible loss of 20,000 jobs and rhe permanent parking of more than 150 aircraft?

Which answers the question why EUR10bn rescue package can still result in 20k job losses. There isn't the demand to fly and staff those planes. IAG is losing £178m a week, Lufthansa is burning through EUR1m an hour. Unless you think governments should fund these losses for the next four years, jobs will be lost.

At this stage governments would be better off using that money to fund social programmes and providing welfare and re-training to all of those employed by the industries that are going to be affected by the COVID downturn.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:22 pm

Concur and mentioned this a number of times in the past! EI have little spread and even more limited feed! The recent brand change was to reduce the "irishness" and increase the "international" feel of the airline
 
Vicenza
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:32 pm

Phen wrote:
Indeed the treatment of airline employees in IAG but BA in particular has been reprehensible. I hope you are right in that management are overstating the severity of the downturn for their own causes and that a recovery will begin soon so that these cuts and job losses can be exposed for what they are and stemmed. However unfortunately there are no obvious signs of this, particularly for EI. The USA is getting worse, not better and the Irish government has no real desire to enable international travel again soon with these veiled threats of countries being blacklisted at a moment's notice. You would need a crystal ball at this stage to be able to make any kind of predictions about what the next 12 months will look like.


Although this will probably be taken wrongly, I actually have little sympathy for EI in this particularly respect. For far too long they have solely been US-centric and seem to think it's the only area on a world map. When major international airlines can introduce service to Dublin, it to me shows EI have been completely blinkered.......markets are/have been clearly there (pro Covid19 at this stage) but EI simply never made the effort.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:25 pm

Ryanair threatens base closures in Irish pilot talks

Ryanair has threatened to close two regional bases and axe up to 120 pilot jobs unless Irish pilots bypass their union and directly accept a pay cut, a memo seen by Reuters said.

The airline is demanding pay cuts of up to 20% and changes to work practices across Europe.

www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0629/1150 ... ts-threat/



Overseas travel figures sink by 98% in May - CSO

New figures from the Central Statistics Office show an "extraordinary" collapse in overseas travel to and from Ireland in May as the effects of the Covid-19 crisis continued with travel to and from most countries almost completely stopped.

The CSO said there were just 28,300 arrivals in May and 36,300 departures. This compares with monthly travel of more than 1.8 million in each direction the same time last year - an annual fall of 98%.

www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0629/1150 ... tatistics/
 
richcandy
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:25 am

Vicenza wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
Fliplot wrote:
The point made was accurate - sitting on the ground is less costly than operating a loss making flight - assuming the aircraft is leased. If owned then there could be an outside case for operating some flights. My missed point was that all the noises from EI are very negatuve., all of the time!


although FR and media reports are talking up "air bridges" and "foreign holidays" the appetite from the public just isn't there, judging by polling. Price for summer holidays, x% off and fares do seem low for the summer season, which is telling.


I would have to disagree as many of the major tour operators have announced a substantial increase in bookings in the past week compared t previous.Yes, this of course is relative, but to say that the appetite from the public just isn't there is somewhat erronous. What 'polls' are you citing? I certainly have seen no great/huge discounts.


Pre the 9/11 attacks airlines were operating routes that didn't make money, there was way more capacity than maybe needed. After 9/11 routes were cut, services reduced and fares increased. I'm guessing its going to be similar this time round.

I know lots of people who are saying "I don't care what it costs I want to get away" and I think the airlines and tour operators will capitalise on them. Less capacity, high prices.

There will be people who now after this downturn just won't have the money to travel but there are also people who are maybe no longer in paid employment and not relying on salary and are desperate to travel. There are people who work in industries that have not been effected. There are also the wealthy. And there are people who simply want/have to travel because granny lives in Malaga or they own a holiday home in Italy.

Just my view

Alex
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:48 am

I must admit to being quite tired of the FR sagas. Is there ever a day when they are not fighting with someone? It must be so exhausting for them. They are well placed to weather the virus, both financially and operationally. They do not have a trans Atlantic problem like EI. I like FR, have flown on every aircraft type operated by them but Lord they dont half moan! Could we please have a 6 months rest from FR bluster?
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:33 am

Vicenza wrote:
Although this will probably be taken wrongly, I actually have little sympathy for EI in this particularly respect. For far too long they have solely been US-centric and seem to think it's the only area on a world map. When major international airlines can introduce service to Dublin, it to me shows EI have been completely blinkered.......markets are/have been clearly there (pro Covid19 at this stage) but EI simply never made the effort.

I think you are right, EI has not diversified away from certain key markets, but Im not sure they EI haven't made an effort. I guess they see focussing on the UK, US and EU as ensuring a return on their investments. They probably feel they will have better return on their investment feeding the Dublin hub rather than using the aircraft on O&D routes, or feeding into another airlines hub. EI don't really have any viable partners in the Asia/Pacific region and the sector lengths mean that they cant turn an aircraft in 24 hours, that all counts against EI diversifying. The current set-up works well in terms of utilisation and passenger flows over Dublin. For the ME3 and Asian airlines DUB is the equivalent of BDL, SWF or PVD - it might make sense to connect a "spoke" to a hub (DUB, DXB, etc). Aircraft like the 787, A350 and A321LR make these various routes possible, but don't imply that there is unlimited demand for routes from a based airline.

Vicenza wrote:
I would have to disagree as many of the major tour operators have announced a substantial increase in bookings in the past week compared t previous.Yes, this of course is relative, but to say that the appetite from the public just isn't there is somewhat erronous. What 'polls' are you citing? I certainly have seen no great/huge discounts.


There are plenty of industry studies. Demand might be as little as 4% of the population this year, 10% at best. The industry predicts it will be 30-50% smaller this year than it was last year. Demand for the summer really isn't there - the rolling nature of lockdowns, travel restrictions at short notice and issues with travel insurance, worries about being unwell abroad and economic uncertainty all play into it. Maybe I should rephrase, demand may be there, but conversion to booking doesn't seem to be.
https://www.bva-bdrc.com/opinions/the-p ... m-in-2020/
https://www.travelprofessionalnews.com/ ... ronavirus/

Ryanair have a lot of seats available from London to Ireland in August, at weekends for €19.99. Thats cheap, in my mind.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:28 am

Aer Lingus are further extending the USA cancellations until 10th August. No real surprise.

Swiss resume ORK-ZRH from 5th July.
 
Eirules
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:21 pm

OA260 wrote:
Aer Lingus are further extending the USA cancellations until 10th August. No real surprise.

Swiss resume ORK-ZRH from 5th July.


10th August seems ambitious
The way you cut your meat reflects the way you live....
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:29 pm

Eirules wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Aer Lingus are further extending the USA cancellations until 10th August. No real surprise.

Swiss resume ORK-ZRH from 5th July.


10th August seems ambitious



Indeed. Cases, overall, are still on the rise in the US - this NY Times article has an interesting pictogram. Blue are the areas with fallen cases. It has to be said that significant EI destinations in Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, California and Washington State are all fairly red.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

Keeping the US off the "all but essential travel" countries guarantees depressed demand for the summer season. I haven't seen when this list will be reviewed, I assume at least a fortnight.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... us-europe/
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:49 pm

Eirules wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Aer Lingus are further extending the USA cancellations until 10th August. No real surprise.

Swiss resume ORK-ZRH from 5th July.


10th August seems ambitious

I think this cancellations are just on a rolling basis, they seem to give themselves around 6 weeks each time. It’s definitely not an indication of when the airline expects to start serving those markets again.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:56 pm

Travel uncertainty following advice by health expert to cancel foreign holidays

Uncertainty surrounding Covid-19 is causing further confusion around travel abroad.

While the Government had recently announced the possibility of travel restrictions to certain countries being eased from next week, last night the Chief Medical Officer spoke about travel-related clusters of the virus and the threat of a potential resurgence.

Based on this, Dr Tony Holohan has advised people to cancel their foreign holidays.

It has led to much confusion.

The Irish Travel Agents Association has said called on the Government to give clarity to consumers and those working in the industry, and make a decision on whether people should travel abroad or not.

ITAA Chief Executive Pat Dawson is critical of the fact that as more flights take to the skies, people are now being advised not to travel.

He said if the Government is advising the consumer not to travel abroad, then it should cancel all flights and ensure people are refunded.

www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0630/1 ... us-europe/
 
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Phen
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:31 pm

OA260 wrote:
He said if the Government is advising the consumer not to travel abroad, then it should cancel all flights and ensure people are refunded.

Possibly the most ridiculous suggestion I've heard to date. If Government has not already grounded airlines outright by now then it certainly isn't going to do so at this stage of reopening the economy. I listened to his interview on RTE radio this morning and a lot of it did not make any sense. I agree that the messaging to the public has been totally inconsistent and fragmented over the last week. There has been no clear direction. But when the head of a country's travel agents' association is calling for flights to be cancelled there is something wrong there. I appreciate he is trying to 'look out' for the consumer but stifling any recovery in the travel industry will harm his own organisation just as much as the airlines and we could find ourselves in a situation with very few airlines flying next year at all if there is no recovery of some sort by later this year.

Eoghan Corry spoke very well on the TV news this evening. He blamed the current confusion on the silence and indecision of the Government. Granted we are in the middle of a change in Government right now which doesn't help, but this 'vacuum' as he put it, is being filled solely with the advice of the medical professionals where in fact Government advice and decision-making is sorely needed. Dr Holohan and his team will of course discourage travel. That is their job. They are not concerned with economics or job retention. If masses of people are dependant on social welfare for income but lives have been saved then that is a roaring success in their books. But the Government must step in, make decisions and issue clear guidance if there is to be any hope for the estimated 200,000 people whose jobs depend on the travel and tourism industry making some sort of recovery soon.

Dr Holohan has supposedly referenced new cases here related to travel. However when you look at the detail, there have been many cases from countries which are known hotspots - Iraq, Pakistan, Bangladesh, UK and Sweden - and are not going to be included on any green list any time soon. There is not going to be a rush of Irish tourists heading off to Iraq if quarantine measures here are relaxed :roll: I believe his team are taking undue advantage of the lack of direction from Government at the moment and unduly discouraging travel which can be safely undertaken to countries with low incidence of CV like Ireland.
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 336
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:53 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
AmricanShamrok wrote:
As we wait patiently for the Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade to release its list of "green countries", the coming week will see a significant number of routes resume, notably:
- ORK-CDG (AF/A5)
- DUB-YYZ (AC)
- DUB-BCM, DUB-OTP and DUB-CLJ (0B)
- DUB-LHR (BA)
- DUB-VIE (OE)
- DUB-LIS (TP)
- NOC-PMI (OE)
- SNN-VIE (OE)
...as well as a slew of EI routes from DUB and FR routes from DUB, ORK, SNN, KIR and NOC.

There have been a few more route cancellations too:
- ORK-VRN (V7)
- DUB-CGN (EW)
- DUB-ZAD (OE)


DUB YYZ commencing but restrictions are still in place here, no non-essential travel and 14 day self isolation requirement upon arrival in Canada.

Things are constantly changing, lets see how this unfolds!


Canada extending border closure to international visitors and non-essential travel to July 31. Quarantine orders also extended for anyone returning to Canada until August 31. Previous order was due to expire tonight.

How will this effect ACs planned resumption this week?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/travel ... -1.5632625
 
EIEIDW
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:34 pm

HKG-DUB pulled for this year. Flights on sale for the end of March next year.
 
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Re: Irish 6/20: The behemoth reawakens ...

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:08 am

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