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airzim
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:45 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Just because DL or SkyTeam have not been able to get their act together doesn't mean alliances have a murky future. Of course, SkyTeam definitely has a murky future - every year at least one carrier wants to leave it.

Nothing you just said there is based in fact.

All three of the alliances have only had a single carrier leave them for reasons other than (1) merger or (2) going out of business.

    Aer Lingus - Oneworld
    China Southern - SkyTeam
    Blue1 - Star Alliance

...that's it. One each. Despite what you seem to be imagining.


You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:46 pm

airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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airzim
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:21 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:52 pm

airzim wrote:
It left because of the strategic partnership with United

Which was precursor to a long-intended _____.

You're positing as though the official date of announcement was the first point that CO would've taken strategic action to position itself for such.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Sokes
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:39 pm

smartplane wrote:
The A loan is repaid from monthly lease payments, and funded largely, but not exclusively, by the funding participants.
...
The combined value of A & B loans are largely irrelevant. In the 21st century, they are not an indication of the price paid for an aircraft, or even the residual value, because adjustments can and are made for risk, value and application of OEM retrospective credits, front end contributions, calculation of end of lease balloon payments, cash in or out upfront, value and timing of OEM 'last resort' buybacks.............
...

I don't understand what you mean.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
FSDan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:01 am

Ishrion wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
People talk about these ‘5th Freedom’ flights as though they’re some big thing. How many of them are there?


For the U.S. Emirates only has ATH-EWR and MXP-JFK.


The bigger deal here was that EK threw the A380 on JFK-MXP - a market that already had 3 carriers flying it (4 when you include UA at EWR). IIRC, the timing of that move was correlated with when DL started ramping up their anti-ME3 rhetoric in earnest.

I agree with some others that the biggest sticking point in a theoretical partnership would be the U.S.-India market. I don't know about UA-AC-LH, but I'm pretty sure the DL-VS-AF-KL JV includes India in the revenue/profit sharing arrangement.

As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best. DL could provide good feed at JFK and SEA, but UA at SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR could provide a lot more. LAX is not well-situated geographically to be of much use as a feeder point for EK.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:34 am

FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
onwFan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:07 am

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Just because DL or SkyTeam have not been able to get their act together doesn't mean alliances have a murky future. Of course, SkyTeam definitely has a murky future - every year at least one carrier wants to leave it.

Nothing you just said there is based in fact.

All three of the alliances have only had a single carrier leave them for reasons other than (1) merger or (2) going out of business.

    Aer Lingus - Oneworld
    China Southern - SkyTeam
    Blue1 - Star Alliance

...that's it. One each. Despite what you seem to be imagining.

And even if one does could merger and cessation; both Oneworld (and especially Star) have lost way more carriers than SkyTeam's grand total of 3; and yes, that even accounts for the fact that Star is larger.

I said 'wants to leave' and not 'left'; which means I was alluding to many carriers having publicly expressed their dissatisfaction in SkyTeam (and I don' t blame them).

Aeroflot: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... 6M20130628

Kenya Airways: https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rt%20World.

TAROM: viewtopic.php?t=1410859

Alitalia: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... r-alliance

You can google for more. SkyTeam has failed to achieve its purpose, and even Ed Bastian has openly admitted it.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:09 am

onwFan wrote:
You can google for more.

Why bother. Explain to us how that's different from QR, EI, AB, JP, AV, (and if we're to go ridiculously far back in time, as you did with SU) JL and TG, all publicly express discontent with Star or OneWorld, regardless of whether they chose to stay, go, dissolve, etc?

Do you not see how ridiculously nonobjective this comes off as?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
xiaotung
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:43 am

airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Just because DL or SkyTeam have not been able to get their act together doesn't mean alliances have a murky future. Of course, SkyTeam definitely has a murky future - every year at least one carrier wants to leave it.

Nothing you just said there is based in fact.

All three of the alliances have only had a single carrier leave them for reasons other than (1) merger or (2) going out of business.

    Aer Lingus - Oneworld
    China Southern - SkyTeam
    Blue1 - Star Alliance

...that's it. One each. Despite what you seem to be imagining.


You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.


And Mexicana left Star and later joined oneworld.
 
FSDan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:59 am

LAX772LR wrote:
FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.


I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.
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alfa164
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:32 am

FSDan wrote:
It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.


It almost won't make much difference; if EK were to partner with one of the US3, you can bet that EY will jump in with another US carrier. If QR stays with AA, then it is likely that both DL and UA will have Middle-Eastern partners; the only question is who will be tied to whom.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
onwFan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:43 am

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
You can google for more.

Why bother. Explain to us how that's different from QR, EI, AB, JP, AV, (and if we're to go ridiculously far back in time, as you did with SU) JL and TG, all publicly express discontent with Star or OneWorld, regardless of whether they chose to stay, go, dissolve, etc?

Do you not see how ridiculously nonobjective this comes off as?

QR is the only carrier that fits the same bill, since it has said that it was considering leaving oneworld due to acrimonious relationships with AA and QF.
EI left because they were gearing towards a more LCC model, and not because they were dissatisfied with oneworld.
When did AB say they were considering leaving oneworld because it did not work for them? They left when they collapsed/merged with LH.
When did JP, AV or TG say they were considering leaving Star because it didn't work for them? JP left because they collapsed.
When did JL say oneworld was not working for them? The reason they were considering leaving was because they were bankrupt and DL was trying hard to make them switch (a recurring theme for DL because they never seem satisfied with their SkyTeam partners).

The key point is that the carriers I mentioned said that SkyTeam was not only not benefitting them, but hurting them, even from expanding and forming partnerships; which is why they wanted to leave the alliance (same as CZ). It is very different from the carriers you suggest. In any case, this is a pointless discussion because it is not even remotely related to this thread. I am happy to take your word that SkyTeam is doing absolutely fabulous, if you insist.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:53 am

FSDan wrote:
It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started

Of course they would be. It would take DL 0.05seconds to resume ATL-DXB with immunized double-connectivity, and possibly launch from DTW and/or JFK as well.


onwFan wrote:
QR is the only carrier that fits the same bill, since it has said that it was considering leaving oneworld

Nnoooooo... that's just you attempting to reduce reality into something convenient to your erroneous argument.



onwFan wrote:
JP left because they collapsed.

Please pay attention. The quote was express discontent whether they left/merged/dissolved. I'm aware that JP technically was a member until the month after suspending ops in the fall of last year, but in their initial reorg/reduction attempts which IINM was released in the summer around the same time as the SkyTrax results were released in June, did exactly that.


onwFan wrote:
I am happy to take your word that SkyTeam is doing absolutely fabulous, if you insist.

#FallacyAlert
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:30 am

airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.

If I remember correctly? NWA and CO had a partnership and an alliance to prevent aby takeover of either. I think NWA held a stock position in CO as well. Then they merged with Delta and gave up their CO stock position. UA then offered CO a merger position which CO originally rejected then after US Air stepped up they changed their mind after getting Rid of their CEO. It was an interesting turn of events to say the least. I was still at United when the merger happened.
saw a lot of CO smoke, But no real Fire. But in the end? It was United pretty much on Top, As it is today..
 
77H
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:10 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


SQ and UA have left the chat...

77H
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:45 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
TObound wrote:
So EK wants one of the US3 to throw their European and Asian alliance partners under the bus? Not happening.

Who says they have to? EK can codeshare on that carrier's every single N.American op, and that wouldn't affect the Euro's ability to do so.

And as far as the US3 carrier, it can carve out locales where EK would be preferred. Most notably in Africa and S.Asia.
It's not all that dissimilar to DL's current J/Vs with the Virgins, outside of SkyTeam.


This ignores the fact that those destinations age big business for the European carriers and help fill flights to Europe for the US3.

What exactly does a US3 carrier get from helping customers bypass Europe, mostly on EK metal too?
 
CALMSP
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:52 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........




That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.

If I remember correctly? NWA and CO had a partnership and an alliance to prevent aby takeover of either. I think NWA held a stock position in CO as well. Then they merged with Delta and gave up their CO stock position. UA then offered CO a merger position which CO originally rejected then after US Air stepped up they changed their mind after getting Rid of their CEO. It was an interesting turn of events to say the least. I was still at United when the merger happened.
saw a lot of CO smoke, But no real Fire. But in the end? It was United pretty much on Top, As it is today..


correct, NW held a "golden ticket" over CO. Once they merged with DL, that voided the golden ticket and allowed CO to do as they please.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:14 pm

77H wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


SQ and UA have left the chat...

77H

Continental was the one who decided to leave Skyteam as United wasn't planning to leave Star Allinace. I'm not sure exactly Why Singapore is still in the Star Alliance.
Since they really don't interline with anybody like the other members.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:21 pm

smithbs wrote:
I was going to ask about AS, but with B6 already mentioned I'm afraid the thread will divert off into AS-B6 merger land.

If they even thought about a merger? They more than likely would have already done it to even BE a credible alliance partner to any foreign airline. So? You have to consider that they're not so serious about it. Which is OK if they intend to grow organically. I mean who can say?
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:33 pm

amax1977 wrote:
QR & AA recently resumed their partnership beside both being OW members. DL & EK partnership doesn't make much sense as they had bloody fights in the past. UA & EK partnership makes the most sense as they've worked well together in the past.

UA will work with just about amybody but it won't be subservient to anybody. United flies to Singapore amd I'm sure Singapore Airlines doesn't like it and I can guess pretty much why. But what they don't know? is ALPA at United? Would have a FIT were United to cut international operations in favor of Anybody else. Their motto is and has always been? We don't need anybody to fly around the World. And I think they got that attitude from the Pan Am pilots who came to United. And Management can't shake that from them. I'd bet where it up to LH and SQ? United would fly domestically and leave international flying to them. However? It ain't up to them as UA ALPA wouldn't go for it, and they butter the bread that United bakes.
 
bostonvancouver
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:40 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........




That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.

If I remember correctly? NWA and CO had a partnership and an alliance to prevent aby takeover of either. I think NWA held a stock position in CO as well. Then they merged with Delta and gave up their CO stock position. UA then offered CO a merger position which CO originally rejected then after US Air stepped up they changed their mind after getting Rid of their CEO. It was an interesting turn of events to say the least. I was still at United when the merger happened.
saw a lot of CO smoke, But no real Fire. But in the end? It was United pretty much on Top, As it is today..


That's called the Golden Share which CO purchased after NW merged w/ DL.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:43 pm

[quo te="jayunited"]Any partnership with the US3 will come at a high cost, seeing none of them particularly like EK. A partnership between EK and any one of the US3 would probably require EK agree to end many if not all of their Europe-US-Europe 5th freedom flights. This has been a sore spot for the US3 and their European JV partners. On the flip side EK would probably want the US carrier to funnel as much Indian, African, and Southeast Asia traffic onto their (meaning EK's) US outbound flights to DXB, but at the same time the US carrier would probably have to agree to stay out of DXB.

EK may agree to cease some of their 5th freedom flights, and I think US carriers would agree to stay out of DXB, the sticking point would be India. From the US, travel to India is EK's bread and butter but India is also important to the US3. Just prior to COVID AA announced their return to India and both DL and UA had just recently added new nonstop flights. I think the price of partnership with AA, DL, or UA would be to high for either side to pay, leaving B6 as the only logical choice.

With the right aircraft B6 will be able to reach some Western Europe cities, EK can use their 5th freedom rights to extend B6's reach. There would be no disagreements over India, Africa, or Southeast Asia because B6 does not have the right aircraft to reach those destinations.[/quote]
I think only Delta might comply with that. UA has already flown to DXB and It would be a Hard sell to tell the Pilots We're not going to fly there because EK might not like it. If United doesn't fly there? It would have to be a damn good reason like they were getting PAID to NOT fly there. and we all know that wouldn't happen. Heck! There is Nowhere in the Star Alliance territory United might not dip a toe in the water and they support all the Star Carriers who fly to the USA. So? It would have to be a damn good reason or excuse for any USA carrier to NOT fly anywhere in the world.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:50 pm

FSDan wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.


I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.



Delta flies into ORD, But EK is already AT ORD, So? the question would be? Would EK change their focal point to DTW or MSP to gain the Maximum Delta interline?
And if not? Then Why Not? It would be pretty unrealistic to ask Delta to build a Hub where THEY want to fly wouldn't it?
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:49 pm

I see an announcement before the end of the financial year 2020/2021
Last edited by xwb777 on Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:01 pm

My sense is Emirates wants to partner with someone to grab pax volume to fill the too many planes they have. Which US3 would agree to that?
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CX747
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:14 pm

“ Emirates] would deliver a huge amount of business to whichever of the Big Three was selected"

The hubris in that statement is an issue in and of itself for the US3. EK is hurting badly and they think they will "select" their partner. Not starting off on a good foot when you are the one in greater dire straits.
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:40 pm

The axe continues to fall in DXB as more flight crew are being made redundant, a quick email followed by a letter. Essentially all the trouble makers on the A380 and 777 have been informed. Interestingly no locals have been affected....
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:54 pm

Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM local around 600 "invited" EK pilots will be briefed about something fleet related.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:09 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Unfortunately for some the Superjumbo is here to stay:

Yes, and most of the misfortune falls on EK itself since COVID-19 has struck down their plans to acquire newer, more efficient planes which leaves them stuck trying to make the best of a bad situation. Now they are stuck with 115+ A380s that are ill suited for the post-covid world and are stuck with the thankless mission of trying to convince Airbus to not make them take delivery of more A380s that are already in the process of being built.


We must include the 77W's in this. EK's prior decisions as mangled by COVID will have their fleet basically A380's and 77W's. The 77W's are cost competitive today with fuel prices low, but if their current 787 and 350 orders are deferred by say 5 years on average, EK will be competing against others that retired their worst planes and are now flying 787's and A350's and providing direct flights too. So it will be tough to get customers for convenience or cost, not a winning hand.

Any lease returns that can happen, will be returned. EK will be competing over-gauged, at least for the next few years.

When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:17 pm

Sokes wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The A loan is repaid from monthly lease payments, and funded largely, but not exclusively, by the funding participants.
...
The combined value of A & B loans are largely irrelevant. In the 21st century, they are not an indication of the price paid for an aircraft, or even the residual value, because adjustments can and are made for risk, value and application of OEM retrospective credits, front end contributions, calculation of end of lease balloon payments, cash in or out upfront, value and timing of OEM 'last resort' buybacks.............
...

I don't understand what you mean.

I'll translate. Sometimes the leasing company takes the risk of resale value. EK often took the risk. For those cases, EK must make good the B loan even when residual values are below estimates.

There are many complicated ways to save cash when acquiring aircraft. It is some of the most varied and complicated financing out there.

B loans are financed off residual value. However, EK is on the hook for most later A380s.

Early ones might have residual value guatantees, but that is for purchase credits. Oh, this is so complicated since there is no 2nd hand market.

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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:27 pm

TObound wrote:
What exactly does a US3 carrier get from helping customers bypass Europe, mostly on EK metal too?

ANSWER: up to 50% of the revenue + more available O&D seats for Europe that both they and their Euro-partners can then sell, without purchasing larger metal.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
kavok
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:47 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.


I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.



Delta flies into ORD, But EK is already AT ORD, So? the question would be? Would EK change their focal point to DTW or MSP to gain the Maximum Delta interline?
And if not? Then Why Not? It would be pretty unrealistic to ask Delta to build a Hub where THEY want to fly wouldn't it?


I see this in the opposite regard. EK could essentially keep the US markets it has currently, and a DL partnership would push ATL and DTW over the hump to being viable. So EK would retain its existing feed, plus DTW/ATL and obviously DL connections from elsewhere.

In that sense, it’s a win-win as DL seems to have no interest in flying to DXB anyway, and DL’s lone India direct from JFK provides minimal competition. As others have mentioned, the main sticking points would be the loss of India traffic currently sent through CDG/AMS and getting over historic grudges. Otherwise a business case could be made.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:54 pm

kavok wrote:
I see this in the opposite regard. EK could essentially keep the US markets it has currently, and a DL partnership would push ATL and DTW over the hump to being viable.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Exactly! EK can keep everything that it has/had, as it was successfully opping its previous network without any help from the US3 anyway.


DL can relaunch ATL-DXB and possibly launch DTW-DXB and/or JFK-DXB as well, utilizing EK's connections and p.o.s. to fortify those ops; which gives their own metal/employees something to do, and would help quell labor strife that's sure to erupt with the addition of any new J/V partner.


EK gets the benefit of DL's nonstop JFK-BOM, to offer to its NYC-based Indian customers without a stop, which it currently cannot do.
As such, DL may also get the impetus to bring back ATL-BOM as well, with EK's help.


DL can also attempt to wrest EK from [email protected], if they chose to delve that deeply.


So many win-win scenarios.
This isn't to say that many of these can't be duplicated or perhaps equaled by UA.... but the idea of UA's network somehow being an inarguably "superior" offer to EK is without merit.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TWA902fly
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:56 pm

I think this is a play to get a US major on their side, which would help politically going forward - if UA or DL or AA was standing up for them to US authorities. It is my understanding that JetBlue has done that - but JetBlue does not have as much political power as the US3. EK probably figures that they are more likely to work out a deal right now - when US airlines have been hit hard financially.

From a network standpoint - what can any of the US3 offer that EK's partnerships with AS and B6 don't offer? Emirates flies to the following AS/B6 focus cities: BOS (B6), JFK (B6), MCO (B6), FLL (B6), SEA (AS), SFO (AS), LAX (AS). Every major US market is covered via those focus citise, so you're really talking about routes like Fargo-Bangalore or Tallahassee-Mumbai? This leads me to believe that it's not a step to expand their North American footprint, rather to gain political goodwill with the US government through a US3 partner.

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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

Well POTUS has been a supporter of the OPEC+ deal of lowering output to drive up prices, fracking is the one certainty the USA has to ensure that OPEC no longer pulls the USA chain. I suspect POTUS was only pushing the backers of fracking agenda, the price needs to go up for them to be profitable, with the trillion+ spent on the virus my bet is that certain fracking companies either get bail out's or go bust and re-emerge with lower debt levels allowing them to continue to be competitive. Not sure 100+ is the desired goal, but if you look at what the world has suffered in the last few months, if OPEC get's the price of oil up rapidly before economies have recovered, it will be the biggest incentive pushing nations to alternates that OPEC has been trying to discourage for years.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:21 pm

Noshow wrote:
Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM local around 600 "invited" EK pilots will be briefed about something fleet related.


Maybe they will be returning some aircraft to lessors or training/shifting some Pilots to the new fleet?

If I was able to get some news from my friend who is in Dubai at EK, I will update you guys.
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FSDan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:33 pm

TWA902fly wrote:
From a network standpoint - what can any of the US3 offer that EK's partnerships with AS and B6 don't offer? Emirates flies to the following AS/B6 focus cities: BOS (B6), JFK (B6), MCO (B6), FLL (B6), SEA (AS), SFO (AS), LAX (AS). Every major US market is covered via those focus citise, so you're really talking about routes like Fargo-Bangalore or Tallahassee-Mumbai?


There are plenty of mid-major markets in the eastern half of the country that B6 doesn't serve. Think SAT, OKC, MCI, STL, MKE, IND, CMH, CVG, SDF, MEM, BHM (all metro areas of 1-3 million)... Plus what little traffic there is from the small destinations like FAR and TLH - insignificant in isolation, but it does add up to something when combined across dozens of these small cities.

That said, I'm still not fully sure the benefit is there for UA or DL given the TATL JVs that could take a hit in India-bound traffic. Unless the EU3 feel they need more room for O&D traffic on their own services to India (and I haven't seen much evidence of that), they would likely be solidly against any sort of JV-type arrangement between their U.S. partners and EK.
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:36 am

Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:33 am

Apparently Emirates’ first A380 with premium economy is in Toulouse “ready to go”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxK_J/statu ... 3796232192
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:39 am

Ishrion wrote:
Apparently Emirates’ first A380 with premium economy is in Toulouse “ready to go”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxK_J/statu ... 3796232192


One aircraft with premium economy out of nearly 100 sounds an operational and marketing nightmare.
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:43 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.


While there is no alternative for aviation currently it is true that there is a significant migration away from fossil fuels in some economies across other sectors. Here in the UK we have had two months now with no coal sourced energy and more than 50% of energy coming from renewables. Germany is ahead of us and likely many other economies are too. I am looking forward to the innovations that bring such a shift to flight.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:21 am

Second wave of pilot lay-offs underway.
Sacked employees were escorted out the back door

https://tinyurl.com/y8zkp8hw
 
dfwking
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:02 pm

kulwinder wrote:
Second wave of pilot lay-offs underway.
Sacked employees were escorted out the back door

https://tinyurl.com/y8zkp8hw



Some FlyDubai staff have received invitations today for a "meeting" with their managers for later this week.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:26 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.

Considering the layoff ("redundancy") discussion occuring in this thread, EK is finding ways to cut costs. Sad. I wonder how many A380 will be flying by the end of the year.

EK will be stuck with an out of date fleet. When oil spikes, as it does, they will be at a disadvantage to narrowbody or A350/787 fleets.

Lightsaber
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Noshow
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:27 pm

Remaining cabin crew seems to get paid only 50 percent basic salary over the summer.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:01 pm

kulwinder wrote:
Second wave of pilot lay-offs underway.
Sacked employees were escorted out the back door

https://tinyurl.com/y8zkp8hw

Interesting article.

Compare:

The second wave is targeting employees with active disciplinary cases as well as those who have been on longterm sickness according to sources who are familiar with the matter.

To:

“We have endeavoured to sustain the current family as is, we reviewed all possible scenarios in order to sustain our business operations, but have come to the conclusion that we, unfortunately, have to say goodbye to a few of the wonderful people that worked with us,” an Emirates spokesperson said on May 31.

I guess they are starting with the ill and the less wonderful.

+1 for emiratesdriver on the accurate prediction.

cv990Coronado wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Apparently Emirates’ first A380 with premium economy is in Toulouse “ready to go”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxK_J/statu ... 3796232192


One aircraft with premium economy out of nearly 100 sounds an operational and marketing nightmare.

Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet ) suggests they have 115 A380s with 8 more on order.
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:11 pm

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 80771.html says 600 pilots have been sacked today and the total so far is 792, with earlier victims being new entrants with A380 FO training slots.
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:53 pm

Reading oil blogs, a lot of business reporting on line, and automotive blogs I see no basis for a dramatic sustained increase in oil prices. The US capacity and willingness to produce puts a ceiling on what the rest of the world can sell and price. Prices over $40 a barrel make US production profitable. Plus Russian, Iraq, and Iran also want to sell more. China, EU, US (with India following in its lumbering sort of way) are going green in electrical production. Solar is looking to be as cheap as a 1.5 US cents per kWs. Automotive companies are frantically pursuing BEV. Oil prices may be the least of the problems for EK.
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