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airzim
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:45 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Just because DL or SkyTeam have not been able to get their act together doesn't mean alliances have a murky future. Of course, SkyTeam definitely has a murky future - every year at least one carrier wants to leave it.

Nothing you just said there is based in fact.

All three of the alliances have only had a single carrier leave them for reasons other than (1) merger or (2) going out of business.

    Aer Lingus - Oneworld
    China Southern - SkyTeam
    Blue1 - Star Alliance

...that's it. One each. Despite what you seem to be imagining.


You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:46 pm

airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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airzim
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:21 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:52 pm

airzim wrote:
It left because of the strategic partnership with United

Which was precursor to a long-intended _____.

You're positing as though the official date of announcement was the first point that CO would've taken strategic action to position itself for such.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
FSDan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:01 am

Ishrion wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
People talk about these ‘5th Freedom’ flights as though they’re some big thing. How many of them are there?


For the U.S. Emirates only has ATH-EWR and MXP-JFK.


The bigger deal here was that EK threw the A380 on JFK-MXP - a market that already had 3 carriers flying it (4 when you include UA at EWR). IIRC, the timing of that move was correlated with when DL started ramping up their anti-ME3 rhetoric in earnest.

I agree with some others that the biggest sticking point in a theoretical partnership would be the U.S.-India market. I don't know about UA-AC-LH, but I'm pretty sure the DL-VS-AF-KL JV includes India in the revenue/profit sharing arrangement.

As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best. DL could provide good feed at JFK and SEA, but UA at SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR could provide a lot more. LAX is not well-situated geographically to be of much use as a feeder point for EK.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:34 am

FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
onwFan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:07 am

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Just because DL or SkyTeam have not been able to get their act together doesn't mean alliances have a murky future. Of course, SkyTeam definitely has a murky future - every year at least one carrier wants to leave it.

Nothing you just said there is based in fact.

All three of the alliances have only had a single carrier leave them for reasons other than (1) merger or (2) going out of business.

    Aer Lingus - Oneworld
    China Southern - SkyTeam
    Blue1 - Star Alliance

...that's it. One each. Despite what you seem to be imagining.

And even if one does could merger and cessation; both Oneworld (and especially Star) have lost way more carriers than SkyTeam's grand total of 3; and yes, that even accounts for the fact that Star is larger.

I said 'wants to leave' and not 'left'; which means I was alluding to many carriers having publicly expressed their dissatisfaction in SkyTeam (and I don' t blame them).

Aeroflot: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... 6M20130628

Kenya Airways: https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rt%20World.

TAROM: viewtopic.php?t=1410859

Alitalia: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... r-alliance

You can google for more. SkyTeam has failed to achieve its purpose, and even Ed Bastian has openly admitted it.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:09 am

onwFan wrote:
You can google for more.

Why bother. Explain to us how that's different from QR, EI, AB, JP, AV, (and if we're to go ridiculously far back in time, as you did with SU) JL and TG, all publicly express discontent with Star or OneWorld, regardless of whether they chose to stay, go, dissolve, etc?

Do you not see how ridiculously nonobjective this comes off as?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
xiaotung
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:43 am

airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Just because DL or SkyTeam have not been able to get their act together doesn't mean alliances have a murky future. Of course, SkyTeam definitely has a murky future - every year at least one carrier wants to leave it.

Nothing you just said there is based in fact.

All three of the alliances have only had a single carrier leave them for reasons other than (1) merger or (2) going out of business.

    Aer Lingus - Oneworld
    China Southern - SkyTeam
    Blue1 - Star Alliance

...that's it. One each. Despite what you seem to be imagining.


You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.


And Mexicana left Star and later joined oneworld.
 
FSDan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:59 am

LAX772LR wrote:
FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.


I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.
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alfa164
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:32 am

FSDan wrote:
It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.


It almost won't make much difference; if EK were to partner with one of the US3, you can bet that EY will jump in with another US carrier. If QR stays with AA, then it is likely that both DL and UA will have Middle-Eastern partners; the only question is who will be tied to whom.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
onwFan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:43 am

LAX772LR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
You can google for more.

Why bother. Explain to us how that's different from QR, EI, AB, JP, AV, (and if we're to go ridiculously far back in time, as you did with SU) JL and TG, all publicly express discontent with Star or OneWorld, regardless of whether they chose to stay, go, dissolve, etc?

Do you not see how ridiculously nonobjective this comes off as?

QR is the only carrier that fits the same bill, since it has said that it was considering leaving oneworld due to acrimonious relationships with AA and QF.
EI left because they were gearing towards a more LCC model, and not because they were dissatisfied with oneworld.
When did AB say they were considering leaving oneworld because it did not work for them? They left when they collapsed/merged with LH.
When did JP, AV or TG say they were considering leaving Star because it didn't work for them? JP left because they collapsed.
When did JL say oneworld was not working for them? The reason they were considering leaving was because they were bankrupt and DL was trying hard to make them switch (a recurring theme for DL because they never seem satisfied with their SkyTeam partners).

The key point is that the carriers I mentioned said that SkyTeam was not only not benefitting them, but hurting them, even from expanding and forming partnerships; which is why they wanted to leave the alliance (same as CZ). It is very different from the carriers you suggest. In any case, this is a pointless discussion because it is not even remotely related to this thread. I am happy to take your word that SkyTeam is doing absolutely fabulous, if you insist.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:53 am

FSDan wrote:
It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started

Of course they would be. It would take DL 0.05seconds to resume ATL-DXB with immunized double-connectivity, and possibly launch from DTW and/or JFK as well.


onwFan wrote:
QR is the only carrier that fits the same bill, since it has said that it was considering leaving oneworld

Nnoooooo... that's just you attempting to reduce reality into something convenient to your erroneous argument.



onwFan wrote:
JP left because they collapsed.

Please pay attention. The quote was express discontent whether they left/merged/dissolved. I'm aware that JP technically was a member until the month after suspending ops in the fall of last year, but in their initial reorg/reduction attempts which IINM was released in the summer around the same time as the SkyTrax results were released in June, did exactly that.


onwFan wrote:
I am happy to take your word that SkyTeam is doing absolutely fabulous, if you insist.

#FallacyAlert
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:30 am

airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.

If I remember correctly? NWA and CO had a partnership and an alliance to prevent aby takeover of either. I think NWA held a stock position in CO as well. Then they merged with Delta and gave up their CO stock position. UA then offered CO a merger position which CO originally rejected then after US Air stepped up they changed their mind after getting Rid of their CEO. It was an interesting turn of events to say the least. I was still at United when the merger happened.
saw a lot of CO smoke, But no real Fire. But in the end? It was United pretty much on Top, As it is today..
 
77H
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:10 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


SQ and UA have left the chat...

77H
 
TObound
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:45 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
TObound wrote:
So EK wants one of the US3 to throw their European and Asian alliance partners under the bus? Not happening.

Who says they have to? EK can codeshare on that carrier's every single N.American op, and that wouldn't affect the Euro's ability to do so.

And as far as the US3 carrier, it can carve out locales where EK would be preferred. Most notably in Africa and S.Asia.
It's not all that dissimilar to DL's current J/Vs with the Virgins, outside of SkyTeam.


This ignores the fact that those destinations age big business for the European carriers and help fill flights to Europe for the US3.

What exactly does a US3 carrier get from helping customers bypass Europe, mostly on EK metal too?
 
CALMSP
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:52 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........




That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.

If I remember correctly? NWA and CO had a partnership and an alliance to prevent aby takeover of either. I think NWA held a stock position in CO as well. Then they merged with Delta and gave up their CO stock position. UA then offered CO a merger position which CO originally rejected then after US Air stepped up they changed their mind after getting Rid of their CEO. It was an interesting turn of events to say the least. I was still at United when the merger happened.
saw a lot of CO smoke, But no real Fire. But in the end? It was United pretty much on Top, As it is today..


correct, NW held a "golden ticket" over CO. Once they merged with DL, that voided the golden ticket and allowed CO to do as they please.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:14 pm

77H wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
airzim wrote:
You forgot Continental left Skyteam for Star Alliance.

No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........



Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think DL and EK’s relationship is already too far gone for them or fix it.

That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


SQ and UA have left the chat...

77H

Continental was the one who decided to leave Skyteam as United wasn't planning to leave Star Allinace. I'm not sure exactly Why Singapore is still in the Star Alliance.
Since they really don't interline with anybody like the other members.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:21 pm

smithbs wrote:
I was going to ask about AS, but with B6 already mentioned I'm afraid the thread will divert off into AS-B6 merger land.

If they even thought about a merger? They more than likely would have already done it to even BE a credible alliance partner to any foreign airline. So? You have to consider that they're not so serious about it. Which is OK if they intend to grow organically. I mean who can say?
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:33 pm

amax1977 wrote:
QR & AA recently resumed their partnership beside both being OW members. DL & EK partnership doesn't make much sense as they had bloody fights in the past. UA & EK partnership makes the most sense as they've worked well together in the past.

UA will work with just about amybody but it won't be subservient to anybody. United flies to Singapore amd I'm sure Singapore Airlines doesn't like it and I can guess pretty much why. But what they don't know? is ALPA at United? Would have a FIT were United to cut international operations in favor of Anybody else. Their motto is and has always been? We don't need anybody to fly around the World. And I think they got that attitude from the Pan Am pilots who came to United. And Management can't shake that from them. I'd bet where it up to LH and SQ? United would fly domestically and leave international flying to them. However? It ain't up to them as UA ALPA wouldn't go for it, and they butter the bread that United bakes.
 
bostonvancouver
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:40 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
airzim wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
No I didn't.

Think about why CO left for Star..........




That's because you're assigning human emotion to what would otherwise be a cold numerical calculation. Corporations aren't sentimental.


Continental didn't leave Skyteam because of a merger or a bankruptcy of Continental. It left because of the strategic partnership with United and Northwest and Delta combining. CO was part of Star a year before announcing the merger with United.

If you're implying that CO left Sky because of a merger with DL and NW to qualify in your criteria, I think that's a stretch.

If I remember correctly? NWA and CO had a partnership and an alliance to prevent aby takeover of either. I think NWA held a stock position in CO as well. Then they merged with Delta and gave up their CO stock position. UA then offered CO a merger position which CO originally rejected then after US Air stepped up they changed their mind after getting Rid of their CEO. It was an interesting turn of events to say the least. I was still at United when the merger happened.
saw a lot of CO smoke, But no real Fire. But in the end? It was United pretty much on Top, As it is today..


That's called the Golden Share which CO purchased after NW merged w/ DL.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:43 pm

[quo te="jayunited"]Any partnership with the US3 will come at a high cost, seeing none of them particularly like EK. A partnership between EK and any one of the US3 would probably require EK agree to end many if not all of their Europe-US-Europe 5th freedom flights. This has been a sore spot for the US3 and their European JV partners. On the flip side EK would probably want the US carrier to funnel as much Indian, African, and Southeast Asia traffic onto their (meaning EK's) US outbound flights to DXB, but at the same time the US carrier would probably have to agree to stay out of DXB.

EK may agree to cease some of their 5th freedom flights, and I think US carriers would agree to stay out of DXB, the sticking point would be India. From the US, travel to India is EK's bread and butter but India is also important to the US3. Just prior to COVID AA announced their return to India and both DL and UA had just recently added new nonstop flights. I think the price of partnership with AA, DL, or UA would be to high for either side to pay, leaving B6 as the only logical choice.

With the right aircraft B6 will be able to reach some Western Europe cities, EK can use their 5th freedom rights to extend B6's reach. There would be no disagreements over India, Africa, or Southeast Asia because B6 does not have the right aircraft to reach those destinations.[/quote]
I think only Delta might comply with that. UA has already flown to DXB and It would be a Hard sell to tell the Pilots We're not going to fly there because EK might not like it. If United doesn't fly there? It would have to be a damn good reason like they were getting PAID to NOT fly there. and we all know that wouldn't happen. Heck! There is Nowhere in the Star Alliance territory United might not dip a toe in the water and they support all the Star Carriers who fly to the USA. So? It would have to be a damn good reason or excuse for any USA carrier to NOT fly anywhere in the world.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:50 pm

FSDan wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.


I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.



Delta flies into ORD, But EK is already AT ORD, So? the question would be? Would EK change their focal point to DTW or MSP to gain the Maximum Delta interline?
And if not? Then Why Not? It would be pretty unrealistic to ask Delta to build a Hub where THEY want to fly wouldn't it?
 
xwb777
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:49 pm

I see an announcement before the end of the financial year 2020/2021
Last edited by xwb777 on Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:01 pm

My sense is Emirates wants to partner with someone to grab pax volume to fill the too many planes they have. Which US3 would agree to that?
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
CX747
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:14 pm

“ Emirates] would deliver a huge amount of business to whichever of the Big Three was selected"

The hubris in that statement is an issue in and of itself for the US3. EK is hurting badly and they think they will "select" their partner. Not starting off on a good foot when you are the one in greater dire straits.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:27 pm

TObound wrote:
What exactly does a US3 carrier get from helping customers bypass Europe, mostly on EK metal too?

ANSWER: up to 50% of the revenue + more available O&D seats for Europe that both they and their Euro-partners can then sell, without purchasing larger metal.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
kavok
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:47 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.


I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.



Delta flies into ORD, But EK is already AT ORD, So? the question would be? Would EK change their focal point to DTW or MSP to gain the Maximum Delta interline?
And if not? Then Why Not? It would be pretty unrealistic to ask Delta to build a Hub where THEY want to fly wouldn't it?


I see this in the opposite regard. EK could essentially keep the US markets it has currently, and a DL partnership would push ATL and DTW over the hump to being viable. So EK would retain its existing feed, plus DTW/ATL and obviously DL connections from elsewhere.

In that sense, it’s a win-win as DL seems to have no interest in flying to DXB anyway, and DL’s lone India direct from JFK provides minimal competition. As others have mentioned, the main sticking points would be the loss of India traffic currently sent through CDG/AMS and getting over historic grudges. Otherwise a business case could be made.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:54 pm

kavok wrote:
I see this in the opposite regard. EK could essentially keep the US markets it has currently, and a DL partnership would push ATL and DTW over the hump to being viable.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Exactly! EK can keep everything that it has/had, as it was successfully opping its previous network without any help from the US3 anyway.


DL can relaunch ATL-DXB and possibly launch DTW-DXB and/or JFK-DXB as well, utilizing EK's connections and p.o.s. to fortify those ops; which gives their own metal/employees something to do, and would help quell labor strife that's sure to erupt with the addition of any new J/V partner.


EK gets the benefit of DL's nonstop JFK-BOM, to offer to its NYC-based Indian customers without a stop, which it currently cannot do.
As such, DL may also get the impetus to bring back ATL-BOM as well, with EK's help.


DL can also attempt to wrest EK from [email protected], if they chose to delve that deeply.


So many win-win scenarios.
This isn't to say that many of these can't be duplicated or perhaps equaled by UA.... but the idea of UA's network somehow being an inarguably "superior" offer to EK is without merit.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TWA902fly
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:56 pm

I think this is a play to get a US major on their side, which would help politically going forward - if UA or DL or AA was standing up for them to US authorities. It is my understanding that JetBlue has done that - but JetBlue does not have as much political power as the US3. EK probably figures that they are more likely to work out a deal right now - when US airlines have been hit hard financially.

From a network standpoint - what can any of the US3 offer that EK's partnerships with AS and B6 don't offer? Emirates flies to the following AS/B6 focus cities: BOS (B6), JFK (B6), MCO (B6), FLL (B6), SEA (AS), SFO (AS), LAX (AS). Every major US market is covered via those focus citise, so you're really talking about routes like Fargo-Bangalore or Tallahassee-Mumbai? This leads me to believe that it's not a step to expand their North American footprint, rather to gain political goodwill with the US government through a US3 partner.

'902
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FSDan
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:33 pm

TWA902fly wrote:
From a network standpoint - what can any of the US3 offer that EK's partnerships with AS and B6 don't offer? Emirates flies to the following AS/B6 focus cities: BOS (B6), JFK (B6), MCO (B6), FLL (B6), SEA (AS), SFO (AS), LAX (AS). Every major US market is covered via those focus citise, so you're really talking about routes like Fargo-Bangalore or Tallahassee-Mumbai?


There are plenty of mid-major markets in the eastern half of the country that B6 doesn't serve. Think SAT, OKC, MCI, STL, MKE, IND, CMH, CVG, SDF, MEM, BHM (all metro areas of 1-3 million)... Plus what little traffic there is from the small destinations like FAR and TLH - insignificant in isolation, but it does add up to something when combined across dozens of these small cities.

That said, I'm still not fully sure the benefit is there for UA or DL given the TATL JVs that could take a hit in India-bound traffic. Unless the EU3 feel they need more room for O&D traffic on their own services to India (and I haven't seen much evidence of that), they would likely be solidly against any sort of JV-type arrangement between their U.S. partners and EK.
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TObound
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:55 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
TObound wrote:
What exactly does a US3 carrier get from helping customers bypass Europe, mostly on EK metal too?

ANSWER: up to 50% of the revenue + more available O&D seats for Europe that both they and their Euro-partners can then sell, without purchasing larger metal.


What's the value of that as demand resets right now?
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:29 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
FSDan wrote:
As for flowing traffic from smaller U.S. cities to EK flights, UA's network definitely fits the best.

Disagree completely.

UA only brings EK one (arguably significant) metro (DEN) and no region that EK hasn't already penetrated, at least not without significant backtracking and limited frequency; with the most notable such gap being the southeast.

With DL, they get access to a two major metros that they haven't accessed with their own metal, neither of which they'd even have to fly. One of which happens to be the overwhelmingly dominant hub for everything within about 1000mi of that locale; and the other being a significant Middle Eastern (yes, I know most mostly Lebanese and Palestinian, but still) population with extremely limited nonstop options.

There's nothing UA could offer via NYC and LAX that DL couldn't duplicate, and EK has survived for a decade or more in the likes of SFO, IAH, ORD, etc without any strategic relationship with UA. No reason they couldn't continue to do so, especially with the impending advent of smaller intercon aircraft.

well? My question is? If they're doing so Well? Then why would they need US Feed? LH also flies A380's from FRA to SFO on occasion and they get Feed from United as well. Feed that EK doesn't and can't get. LH usually went out around 75% full on their A380's and EK was damn sure less than that! and It wasn't hard to see the difference since they usually parked 1 or 2 gates apart . I always found it impressive when I would report to work and find the international terminal full of 747's 777's and A380's. That all seemed to leave like soldiers march in lock step for the departure Runways. It was a great time for taking Pictures too!
 
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:59 pm

TObound wrote:
What's the value of that as demand resets right now?

Last two words should show the operative fallacy in that question.



strfyr51 wrote:
well? My question is? If they're doing so Well? Then why would they need US Feed?

No one? Said that? They "need it?"

But why? If they have the chance? To acquire significantly? Increased US p.o.s.? At minimal operational cost? Would they turn that down? In a historically depressed? Market.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:26 pm

TWA902fly wrote:
From a network standpoint - what can any of the US3 offer that EK's partnerships with AS and B6 don't offer? Emirates flies to the following AS/B6 focus cities: BOS (B6), JFK (B6), MCO (B6), FLL (B6), SEA (AS), SFO (AS), LAX (AS). Every major US market is covered via those focus citise, so you're really talking about routes like Fargo-Bangalore or Tallahassee-Mumbai? This leads me to believe that it's not a step to expand their North American footprint, rather to gain political goodwill with the US government through a US3 partner.

Neither AS or BS have a go anywhere hub like ATL or DFW. EK currently serves, in addition to what you noted: IAH, DFW, and ORD.

For the US3, their JVs print money (on good times). So this is hard to see one of the US3 jumping ship as:
UA-LH competes with EK
DL-AF/KL competes
AA-BA competes

EK should provide a lot of front cabin connections.

I can understand EK wanting a partner and the benefit for them. I cannot see the net benefit for UA, nor AA, nor DL.

Lightsaber
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kavok
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:40 pm

lightsaber wrote:
TWA902fly wrote:
From a network standpoint - what can any of the US3 offer that EK's partnerships with AS and B6 don't offer? Emirates flies to the following AS/B6 focus cities: BOS (B6), JFK (B6), MCO (B6), FLL (B6), SEA (AS), SFO (AS), LAX (AS). Every major US market is covered via those focus citise, so you're really talking about routes like Fargo-Bangalore or Tallahassee-Mumbai? This leads me to believe that it's not a step to expand their North American footprint, rather to gain political goodwill with the US government through a US3 partner.

Neither AS or BS have a go anywhere hub like ATL or DFW. EK currently serves, in addition to what you noted: IAH, DFW, and ORD.

For the US3, their JVs print money (on good times). So this is hard to see one of the US3 jumping ship as:
UA-LH competes with EK
DL-AF/KL competes
AA-BA competes

EK should provide a lot of front cabin connections.

I can understand EK wanting a partner and the benefit for them. I cannot see the net benefit for UA, nor AA, nor DL.

Lightsaber


Probably true.... unless someone needs a large, low interest loan to get through the COVID crisis, and there is no one else to lend the money. Then money talks.

Doubt it will come to that, but if it does, then there could be benefit for one of the US3.
 
incitatus
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:45 pm

No need to partner with one of the US3 to be able to distribute passengers in the US. They should go after a joint venture with Air Canada and make Toronto the way point for all of North America's secondary markets.
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strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:32 pm

incitatus wrote:
No need to partner with one of the US3 to be able to distribute passengers in the US. They should go after a joint venture with Air Canada and make Toronto the way point for all of North America's secondary markets.

Even AC doesn't have that many routes. And who is going to feed Air Canada? Oh that's right! United as they're all in the star alliance!
 
strfyr51
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:44 pm

kavok wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

I should clarify that I was looking at current networks (pre-COVID-19, anyway...), without considering theoretical future additions such as DTW-DXB or ATL-DXB. As things stand now, DL could provide solid feed from the West Coast to EK's SEA-DXB flight, and solid feed to EK's JFK-DXB flights. Limited feed could also be provided at BOS and LAX, but BOS doesn't have nearly the volume of DL domestic capacity as either SEA or JFK, and LAX is just out of the way if you're headed from the U.S. to DXB or beyond. It's true that the vast majority of medium-to-large metro areas (the ones that have a meaningful volume of traffic to the Indian Subcontinent and East Africa) could connect to DXB through either SEA or JFK without much of a backtrack.

UA's existing hub structure would provide more connectivity to EK flights without a doubt. The number of destinations plugged into UA's SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR hubs outstrips the markets connected to DL's SEA and JFK hubs by far. Now, I'll certainly concede that a huge number of these markets probably have close to 0 PDEW to the Indian Subcontinent, so maybe all that added connectivity doesn't do EK much good... But nonetheless, the sheer number of possible one-stop connecting itineraries to DXB over UA's hubs would dwarf those possible over DL's hubs. That's the point I was going for.

It seems like your argument is based more on local markets where a U.S. partner could give EK a boost. Sure, EK doesn't serve DTW and ATL which are decent-sized markets to the Middle East and India. DL could help give them a foothold there. But unless nonstops to DXB are started, those markets are still going to have comparable or better options on other carriers (e.g. a one stop ATL-DOH-HYD vs a two stop ATL-JFK-DXB-HYD). Partnering with UA, on the other hand, would give EK a boost in more markets that they already serve, which also happen to be some of the biggest and most competitive markets for Subcontinent traffic.



Delta flies into ORD, But EK is already AT ORD, So? the question would be? Would EK change their focal point to DTW or MSP to gain the Maximum Delta interline?
And if not? Then Why Not? It would be pretty unrealistic to ask Delta to build a Hub where THEY want to fly wouldn't it?


I see this in the opposite regard. EK could essentially keep the US markets it has currently, and a DL partnership would push ATL and DTW over the hump to being viable. So EK would retain its existing feed, plus DTW/ATL and obviously DL connections from elsewhere.

In that sense, it’s a win-win as DL seems to have no interest in flying to DXB anyway, and DL’s lone India direct from JFK provides minimal competition. As others have mentioned, the main sticking points would be the loss of India traffic currently sent through CDG/AMS and getting over historic grudges. Otherwise a business case could be made.

But? Have the grudges subsided? Would DL WANT to work with EK? So far? all of this conversation has been about what EK wants! Does anybody KNOW what Delta might want? Because they right now? Have said nothing and I have family members working at Delta and It's not even a topic of Conversation in Atlanta.
Maybe EK should fly into ATL then pitch this to Delta.
 
hohd
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:02 pm

DL and EK may be a better match. DL does not fly to India, not sure if the BOM flight will resume. The only problem is that EK does not fly to many of DL's hubs. They could expand to ATL and DTW if they strike a deal.

UA and EK - UA already has invested in India, the long standing flights from EWR and the new SFO flight. They can co exist of course but there are too many overlaps with EK. EK only provides them with some connections to Africa. So this many not happen unless EK gives up all the 5th freedom flights and gives up EWR and let UA fly to DXB on its own metal from EWR and may be IAD.
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:04 pm

Ed Bastian was specifically asked today in a townhall if DL has interest in a ME3 joint venture, citing news of EK having interest. He gave an emphatic no. Reasons being, their home nations aren't markets they are trying to tap into, he didn't think they had like minded goals needed to work as a partner, and he thinks their global expansion/conquest is very much over for now with COVID19.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:31 am

hohd wrote:
DL does not fly to India, not sure if the BOM flight will resume.

They've already resumed it as a cargo op, due to what they described as compelling demand.... so fairly decent chance they'll be resuming it.
https://news.delta.com/cargo-demand-dri ... any-and-uk



Cactusjuba wrote:
Ed Bastian was specifically asked today in a townhall if DL has interest in a ME3 joint venture, citing news of EK having interest. He gave an emphatic no. Reasons being, their home nations aren't markets they are trying to tap into, he didn't think they had like minded goals needed to work as a partner, and he thinks their global expansion/conquest is very much over for now with COVID19.

Do you realize how lightning-fast that could/would change, if they saw an inside track?
No different than the "no, we're not talking to anyone about merging" ...(then a month later)... "oh look, we're merging" double-speak that airlines always do.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Westerwaelder
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Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:17 am

Cactusjuba wrote:
Ed Bastian was specifically asked today in a townhall if DL has interest in a ME3 joint venture, citing news of EK having interest. He gave an emphatic no. Reasons being, their home nations aren't markets they are trying to tap into, he didn't think they had like minded goals needed to work as a partner, and he thinks their global expansion/conquest is very much over for now with COVID19.


More importantly, it wouldn't be a partnership where DL could call all the shots.

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