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AmericanAir88
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How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:57 pm

NYC was probably the most impacted sector during the pandemic. Flights out of the three NYC airports have been severely reduced in the past few months. It is very sad to see busy airports like JFK have few operations.

What does the immediate future hold for the NYC airports? Is travel starting to improve?

Hopefully in the next few weeks, flights will start to come back due to New York's impressive progress during the pandemic.

UA operations still seem small at EWR and I am wondering when they will pick back up again. Same goes for AA and B6 at JFK.

I have no idea about LGA. I wonder if airlines will wait to bring back flights until the new headhouse opens.

Anyway, it would be great to hear some updates and plans about NYC.
 
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STT757
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:15 pm

One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.

The Port Authority's payrolls increased by over $150 Million dollars in 2019. Much of that due to the tremendous amount of overtime they have been paying the PAPD to help mitigate traffic from all the construction at LaGuardia and also in retro active payments to the PAPD who have a new contract with big salary increases.

It's not just the airports, it's the roads and highways too. I commute in to Lower Manhattan from Central New Jersey everyday for work. What was a 1.5 hour commute prior to covid is now a 50 minute drive. The trains are empty, the buses are empty. The commuter bus company I take slashed the line I use from 22 weekday trips from Central New Jersey to Wall Street to 4 weekday buses. And those buses are averaging 3 or 4 riders on each bus vs. the usual capacity of 45. The commuter parking lot where I park usually had between 100-150 cars pre covid, now there are usually 3.

I drive past EWR on the Turnpike everyday around 7:00am. Besides the FedEx, UPS and Amazon planes the only aircraft I see are 2-3 JetBlue planes an 2 AS planes at the gates. No DL, no AA etc.. There's been an EK 77W at Terminal B everyday this week, last week there was an Air India 77W. The only improvement I see is that there are noticeably more UA planes. For a while UA was only operating out of the C-3 concourse, now they're also using C-1.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
tphuang
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:17 pm

For July so far,
DL has cut to 83 departures between JFK/LGA (47 at LGA and 36 at LGA). I didn't count EWR.
B6 has cut to 92 departures between JFK/EWR (77 at JFK and 15 at EWR). 0 at LGA at this point.

AA/UA hasn't made their cut yet.

The demand dropoff at NYC does seem to be larger than elsewhere.

As I said elsewhere, I do expect leisure/VFR travel demand at NYC to come back fast. We are past the curve now.

A lot of people are going to get the antibody test and find that they already have it. They are going to have no problem flying.

I think business travel will be weak for a long time. Most white collar jobs are still working from home and lockdown has made it socially acceptable to do sales pitches/meetings over zoom or bloomberg terminal. It's going to take a while for businesses to losen their purses.

I don't expect JFK slots to be any issue when the waiver ends. EWR imo will have plenty of room. LGA slots will not all be used.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:19 pm

It will take a while for traffic to return to normal levels. That is not just a NYC issue, it's a global one. As the NYC economy (and the surrounding region) recovers and assuming no COVID19 resurgence occurs, in NY and further afield, there is no reason to believe that the region's big 3 airports will not recover. The individual airlines themselves will build back schedules as demand, public health safety, and bilateral agreements evolve as they relate to travel between countries. The 4 big carriers with a significant footprint in the NY Area will take a while to build back what they had, but they will. UA will definitely rebuilt EWR as it is hugely profitable for them and a key strategic advantage. DL will no doubt double down on JFK and LGA and a lot of that will have come at the expense of their other focus cities and the closure of service to some regional airports, which will take a longer time to come back. Same goes for B6. AA will likely build back, but perhaps not to the size and scale it had pre-COVID (roughly 170 departures at LGA and 75-80 at JFK). The other wildcard here are the slots and what the DOT will allow and not allow in terms of waivers. My sense is that waivers will be granted to all on a rolling review basis until everything normalizes, which could take 2 years.
 
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Acey559
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:28 pm

Per a weekly call that the EWR chief pilot puts on, we (UA) should be back to about 115 flights at EWR in July. Clearly far below normal, but significantly better than the 12 we had last month.

I’ve also noticed a significantly higher number of open trips on my fleet (756) than the previous two months. Currently there are about 12 open pairings. As the original equipment fills up, they are up-gauging to mostly 753s. Still a long way off, but at least things continue to trend in a positive direction.
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
Bricktop
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:31 pm

STT757 wrote:
One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.

The Port Authority's payrolls increased by over $150 Million dollars in 2019. Much of that due to the tremendous amount of overtime they have been paying the PAPD to help mitigate traffic from all the construction at LaGuardia and also in retro active payments to the PAPD who have a new contract with big salary increases.

It's not just the airports, it's the roads and highways too. I commute in to Lower Manhattan from Central New Jersey everyday for work. What was a 1.5 hour commute prior to covid is now a 50 minute drive. The trains are empty, the buses are empty. The commuter bus company I take slashed the line I use from 22 weekday trips from Central New Jersey to Wall Street to 4 weekday buses. And those buses are averaging 3 or 4 riders on each bus vs. the usual capacity of 45. The commuter parking lot where I park usually had between 100-150 cars pre covid, now there are usually 3.

I drive past EWR on the Turnpike everyday around 7:00am. Besides the FedEx, UPS and Amazon planes the only aircraft I see are 2-3 JetBlue planes an 2 AS planes at the gates. No DL, no AA etc.. There's been an EK 77W at Terminal B everyday this week, last week there was an Air India 77W. The only improvement I see is that there are noticeably more UA planes. For a while UA was only operating out of the C-3 concourse, now they're also using C-1.

Excellent points. Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:35 pm

tphuang wrote:
LGA slots will not all be used.


Do you think, like Cointrin330, that waivers will be granted, or that slots will be reallocated?
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:36 pm

Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:
One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.

The Port Authority's payrolls increased by over $150 Million dollars in 2019. Much of that due to the tremendous amount of overtime they have been paying the PAPD to help mitigate traffic from all the construction at LaGuardia and also in retro active payments to the PAPD who have a new contract with big salary increases.

It's not just the airports, it's the roads and highways too. I commute in to Lower Manhattan from Central New Jersey everyday for work. What was a 1.5 hour commute prior to covid is now a 50 minute drive. The trains are empty, the buses are empty. The commuter bus company I take slashed the line I use from 22 weekday trips from Central New Jersey to Wall Street to 4 weekday buses. And those buses are averaging 3 or 4 riders on each bus vs. the usual capacity of 45. The commuter parking lot where I park usually had between 100-150 cars pre covid, now there are usually 3.

I drive past EWR on the Turnpike everyday around 7:00am. Besides the FedEx, UPS and Amazon planes the only aircraft I see are 2-3 JetBlue planes an 2 AS planes at the gates. No DL, no AA etc.. There's been an EK 77W at Terminal B everyday this week, last week there was an Air India 77W. The only improvement I see is that there are noticeably more UA planes. For a while UA was only operating out of the C-3 concourse, now they're also using C-1.

Excellent points. Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.


Indeed, very good points, but I am not sure that sharp increases are coming, right away. They may be indeed coming in the not too distant future, particularly if more people try to drive into the city to avoid mass transit, but Federal Funds have already and more have been requested, to fund infrastructure projects in and around NYC. The joke that is the Trump Administration is may not like it, and it might not sit well with its base, but like it or not, NY will remain an outsized engine of US economy growth and that's the compelling reason for federal assistance and it will come.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
LGA slots will not all be used.


Do you think, like Cointrin330, that waivers will be granted, or that slots will be reallocated?


My thinking on the slots is that for the near term, to whom will they really be re-allocated to? I see review periods set up quarterly to assess traffic and demand.
 
tphuang
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:47 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
LGA slots will not all be used.


Do you think, like Cointrin330, that waivers will be granted, or that slots will be reallocated?


Not all the airlines are going to bring capacity back at the same speed.

You can see NK is already adding back most of its flights at EWR for July. B6 is going to be running a 40 to 45% schedule at JFK and 50+% schedule at EWR in July. Both of these airlines would be itching to add more flights at LGA when slot waiver ends. I would imagine F9 might well be itching to add flights at EWR or LGA too. i'm sure WN is always looking for more LGA slots, since they are flying a "full schedule" according to their latest schedule extension.

We get to end of October when the current slot waiver ends, all the LCCs are going to be barking to add flights at LGA. Maybe DOT extends it for a little longer. I don't see how they waive it for another 18 months when there are actual airlines looking to use those slots.

And I don't see the legacies being able to add back those flights when business travel out of LGA is vastly reduced for the foreseeable future.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:59 pm

Just as AA slot-squatted for an extended period at JFK, I could see DL happily flying empty planes LGA-BOS/IAD for a once-a-decade chance at LGA slots.

tphuang wrote:
And I don't see the legacies being able to add back those flights when business travel out of LGA is vastly reduced for the foreseeable future.


They don't need to add back those flights: they just need to fly a plane, somewhere.
 
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LX015
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:00 pm

DL has already added more flights from LGA as of June. Since April they were down to 6 departures/day. As of this week, they are up to 21 departures/day.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:08 pm

LX015 wrote:
DL has already added more flights from LGA as of June. Since April they were down to 6 departures/day. As of this week, they are up to 21 departures/day.


A long way away from the 250+ daily departures they'd normally have at LGA absent COVID19. It will take a while to build that back, but they will no doubt do so.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Just as AA slot-squatted for an extended period at JFK, I could see DL happily flying empty planes LGA-BOS/IAD for a once-a-decade chance at LGA slots.

tphuang wrote:
And I don't see the legacies being able to add back those flights when business travel out of LGA is vastly reduced for the foreseeable future.


They don't need to add back those flights: they just need to fly a plane, somewhere.


The AA situation at JFK was a little different. The runway closure in 2019 gave them the opportunity to apply for waivers which they've rolled further.
 
tphuang
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:16 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Just as AA slot-squatted for an extended period at JFK, I could see DL happily flying empty planes LGA-BOS/IAD for a once-a-decade chance at LGA slots.

tphuang wrote:
And I don't see the legacies being able to add back those flights when business travel out of LGA is vastly reduced for the foreseeable future.


They don't need to add back those flights: they just need to fly a plane, somewhere.


Well, I don't think they need to squat on JFK slots any more, I won't be surprised if JFK looses slot constraint after this like EWR.

I'm sure DL will have no problem flying empty planes around out of LGA for a while. It's AA/UA that I think will have to cut back due to their weaker finances.
 
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LX015
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:18 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
LX015 wrote:
DL has already added more flights from LGA as of June. Since April they were down to 6 departures/day. As of this week, they are up to 21 departures/day.


A long way away from the 250+ daily departures they'd normally have at LGA absent COVID19. It will take a while to build that back, but they will no doubt do so.



No question about it being a long way from the approximately 270 departures, but any uptick is welcome!
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:28 pm

Will UA consider adding several more flights to EWR? I am currently booked on a 7:00 AM from EWR-LAX on July 11th. I picked that flight for the 787.

EWR seems like their anchor in the NYC market. Hopefully, UA will add back in July.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:04 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Will UA consider adding several more flights to EWR? I am currently booked on a 7:00 AM from EWR-LAX on July 11th. I picked that flight for the 787.

EWR seems like their anchor in the NYC market. Hopefully, UA will add back in July.


Likely yes, if the demand is there. EWR is the UA hub in the Tri State Area and in normal, non COVID19 times, it is around 400 daily departures.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:26 pm

70 JFK slots were returned to the PA

Dont know from which airline
 
deltairlines
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:42 pm

LX015 wrote:
DL has already added more flights from LGA as of June. Since April they were down to 6 departures/day. As of this week, they are up to 21 departures/day.


Quite a few destinations came back as well out of LGA. BOS, DCA, ORD, DFW, BNA, CVG and RDU all have flights added today (before was just ATL, DTW, MSP). JFK also got a good number of destinations added for June as well - AMS, SFO, MCO, MIA, TLV, TPA and ATL are back in.

For July, Delta's schedule looks like the following (using 13Jul):

EWR: ATL 5x (3x 717, 738, 739), DTW 3x (3x CR9), MSP 2x (2x CR9), SLC 1x (739). ATL bumped up 2 frequencies, MSP/DTW up 1 freq, SLC returns. Total of 11 flights.

LGA: ATL 7x (1x 319, 6x 321), DTW 4x (2x 319, 320, 321), MSP 3x (319, 2x 320), BOS 4x (E75), DCA 3x (E75), ORD 4x (221), RDU 3x (CR9), MCO 2x (319, 321), CVG 2x (CR9), MIA 1x (319), FLL 2x (319), PBI 1x (319), TPA 1x (319), DFW 2x (221), IAH 1x (221), BNA 2x (E75), RIC 1x (E75), PIT 2x (E75), CLT 2x (E75). Total of 47 flights.

JFK: ATL 3x (319, 320, 321), DTW 2x (CR9), MSP 1x (221), SLC 3x (75W), SEA 2x (75W), LAX 4x (76Z), SFO 2x (75W), SAN 1x (75W), LAS 1x (739), BOS 3x (E75), DEN 1x (739), FLL 2x (320), MIA 2x (320), MCO 2x (320), AMS 1x (764), CDG 1x (764), SJU 1x (739), TPA 2x (320), TLV 1x (333), YYZ 1x (CR9). Total of 36 flights.
 
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STT757
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:42 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
70 JFK slots were returned to the PA

Dont know from which airline


At Kennedy it's not just the slots but the gates, dramatic lack of gates at Kennedy for an airport it's size. The Port Authority was working with different groups to greatly expand the airport's facilities, but as I mentioned before anything not with steal beams already being assembled is in jeopardy.

International is going to be hurting, where is the space at Kennedy for WN, NK, F9 etc..
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Just as AA slot-squatted for an extended period at JFK, I could see DL happily flying empty planes LGA-BOS/IAD for a once-a-decade chance at LGA slots.

tphuang wrote:
And I don't see the legacies being able to add back those flights when business travel out of LGA is vastly reduced for the foreseeable future.


They don't need to add back those flights: they just need to fly a plane, somewhere.


Well, I don't think they need to squat on JFK slots any more, I won't be surprised if JFK looses slot constraint after this like EWR.

I'm sure DL will have no problem flying empty planes around out of LGA for a while. It's AA/UA that I think will have to cut back due to their weaker finances.


Delta will absolutely not fly empty planes out of the NY airports, or any station, for an extended period of time, if it contributes substantially to cash burn, which DL was not immune to. They simply got the number below a threshold earlier than AA and UA. But then again, DL took losses on their NY expansion between 2007 until 2014, when the LGA/JFK operation finally turned profitable. That was different though. They were building out corporate contracts and as the economy expanded from 2009, the momentum was there. COVID makes it all different, and Delta is focused on business $$$ in NYC, not so much leisure.
 
tphuang
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:52 pm

STT757 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
70 JFK slots were returned to the PA

Dont know from which airline


At Kennedy it's not just the slots but the gates, dramatic lack of gates at Kennedy for an airport it's size. The Port Authority was working with different groups to greatly expand the airport's facilities, but as I mentioned before anything not with steal beams already being assembled is in jeopardy.

International is going to be hurting, where is the space at Kennedy for WN, NK, F9 etc..


WN won't come to JFK if they can't get it to work at EWR.

There is plenty of gate space at T8 right now, but I doubt AA is going let ULCC use them.

B6 was probably only doing 7 turns a day in T5 during summer rush, but they won't let ULCCs use them either.

I doubt DL will let them use T4.

So basically, it's just T1 and T7 if ULCC wants to come start service at JFK. And they'd need to fight over gate space with international airlines. And T7 will get demolished at some point.

Am I right in these assumptions?

Seems like JFK is pretty unappealing for ULCCs as long as EWR is open.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:56 pm

T7 is due to close in 2022(?). With our without the T8 expansion announced in 2019, BA will relocate there, as will IB and probably the bulk that flies out of T7 that cannot be operated elsewhere in the JFK complex. WN won't come to JFK. No upside. I'd agree with the comment that the ULCC's aren't really interested in JFK, unless there are openings not covered by DL, B6 (meaning, if they keep frequencies low to some leisure markets).
 
panamair
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:10 pm

deltairlines wrote:

JFK: ATL 3x (319, 320, 321), DTW 2x (CR9), MSP 1x (221), SLC 3x (75W), SEA 2x (75W), LAX 4x (76Z), SFO 2x (75W), SAN 1x (75W), LAS 1x (739), BOS 3x (E75), DEN 1x (739), FLL 2x (320), MIA 2x (320), MCO 2x (320), AMS 1x (764), CDG 1x (764), SJU 1x (739), TPA 2x (320), TLV 1x (333), YYZ 1x (CR9). Total of 36 flights.


There are also some less than daily destinations for sale so far in July: ATH 4x weekly; LIS 4x weekly; ACC 4x weekly; CUN 3x weekly.
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:02 pm

I could see NK dropping LGA and moving towards JFK in the future. Since Delta is tearing down their entire area at LGA, they may try to kick NK out. F9 probably as well, but I don't see them going to JFK as they are building up steadily in EWR.

I could see NK at T2 or T7 in the short run (Pre-NewJFK). Delta will not really need T2 if they "emerge as a smaller carrier."

I still honestly don't get why T2 is still standing. Delta should tear it down or sell it and install a "MSP Concourse C" train from B20-B50 at T4. That walk can be brutal from a 50s gate to baggage claim.
 
atlflyer
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:13 pm

Any news on when LaGuardia Terminal B head house will open?

Also, most of the capital projects were not being paid for by the PANYNJ. At JFK, they were contributing $1 billion compared to $17 billion of private money. I think they are using capital projects as a way to get federal money for their exorbitant salaries.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:23 pm

LGA is a ghost town, was there a few days ago out of the D gates at terminal B (also, the naming scheme for the concourses and terminals is hot garbage in terminal B you shouldn't be using letter and letter combos you should use number and letter combos for terminals and concourses) and I saw maybe 5 departures on the board. Almost made me miss the hell hole when you have 5 American and 5 United flights shouting over each other trying to call boarding zones and everyone is pouring into the hallways.
 
Bricktop
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:38 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:
One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.

The Port Authority's payrolls increased by over $150 Million dollars in 2019. Much of that due to the tremendous amount of overtime they have been paying the PAPD to help mitigate traffic from all the construction at LaGuardia and also in retro active payments to the PAPD who have a new contract with big salary increases.

It's not just the airports, it's the roads and highways too. I commute in to Lower Manhattan from Central New Jersey everyday for work. What was a 1.5 hour commute prior to covid is now a 50 minute drive. The trains are empty, the buses are empty. The commuter bus company I take slashed the line I use from 22 weekday trips from Central New Jersey to Wall Street to 4 weekday buses. And those buses are averaging 3 or 4 riders on each bus vs. the usual capacity of 45. The commuter parking lot where I park usually had between 100-150 cars pre covid, now there are usually 3.

I drive past EWR on the Turnpike everyday around 7:00am. Besides the FedEx, UPS and Amazon planes the only aircraft I see are 2-3 JetBlue planes an 2 AS planes at the gates. No DL, no AA etc.. There's been an EK 77W at Terminal B everyday this week, last week there was an Air India 77W. The only improvement I see is that there are noticeably more UA planes. For a while UA was only operating out of the C-3 concourse, now they're also using C-1.

Excellent points. Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.


Indeed, very good points, but I am not sure that sharp increases are coming, right away. They may be indeed coming in the not too distant future, particularly if more people try to drive into the city to avoid mass transit, but Federal Funds have already and more have been requested, to fund infrastructure projects in and around NYC. The joke that is the Trump Administration is may not like it, and it might not sit well with its base, but like it or not, NY will remain an outsized engine of US economy growth and that's the compelling reason for federal assistance and it will come.

I think they might get money from the Feds for infrastructure, but probably not for increased operating costs (PAPD salaries) and lost revenues from the tolls evaporating. I will never feel sorry for PANYNJ, a patronage sink since inception. Signed a NJ taxpayer and tunnel frequenter.
 
ScottB
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:26 am

Insertnamehere wrote:
the naming scheme for the concourses and terminals is hot garbage in terminal B you shouldn't be using letter and letter combos you should use number and letter combos for terminals and concourses


Well no one really refers to the terminals by letter. There's the Marine Air Terminal (A), the Central Terminal Building (B), what used to be the USAir(ways) Terminal (C), and what used to be the Delta/Northwest Terminal (D). Virtually no one would change terminals so the fact that the CTB had A/B/C/D concourses really didn't matter. It got a lot more confusing when AA was running a split operation between the CTB and the old USAir terminal since AA's section of the CTB has D gates while the bridge connecting terminals C and D also leads to D gates...

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Since Delta is tearing down their entire area at LGA, they may try to kick NK out. F9 probably as well


I expect that NK and F9 at DL's terminals is temporary until the new CTB replacement has enough gates for them to move. AA had several of the highest-numbered gates in Terminal D; those were the gates US retained when they did their slot/facility swap with DL several years back. Moving NK & F9 to Delta's facilities allowed AA to consolidate in the CTB.

Cointrin330 wrote:
UA will definitely rebuilt EWR as it is hugely profitable for them and a key strategic advantage.


Well, EWR [i]WAS[i/] hugely profitable for UA. It's tough to know if/when that will again be the case. We really don't know how long it will take for business traffic to come back and if it will ever return to 2019 levels.

jfklganyc wrote:
70 JFK slots were returned to the PA

Dont know from which airline


If that really is true, the number would fit AA reducing to just hubs and key markets like the LAX/SFO transcons. But I can't imagine them moving that quickly unless they had been planning to dehub JFK for a while. Perhaps with the anticipated economic impact post-CoViD they are executing on a plan they had in place for a deep recession.
 
max999
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:58 am

STT757 wrote:
One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.


atlflyer wrote:
Any news on when LaGuardia Terminal B head house will open?

Also, most of the capital projects were not being paid for by the PANYNJ. At JFK, they were contributing $1 billion compared to $17 billion of private money. I think they are using capital projects as a way to get federal money for their exorbitant salaries.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html


All the massive expansion projects at LGA, JFK, and EWR are at risk of cancellation or scope reduction. These projects are funded by borrowed money that will be repaid with future airport revenues and fees. It's expected that airport revenues will be much lower due to the drastic decline in air travel. It's also near impossible to forecast future revenue when nobody knows when air travel will return to normal and return at what level.

To conclude, NYC will be stuck with its crumbling airport infrastructure for years to come.
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jfklganyc
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:16 am

LGA project is well underway.

Likewise T1 at EWR.

Immediate projects at risk:

LGA Train

Expansion/replacement of EWR Train

Terminal 2 at EWR

Those are direct PA projects.


The Kennedy future projects are more complicated

They are funded through a mix of airline funding and port authority backing.

I would imagine any project that is not nearing completion is in peril.

The LaGuardia project will be finished simply because there isn’t room to leave it unfinished. Every section of the airport has to be used.
 
tphuang
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:36 am

ScottB wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
70 JFK slots were returned to the PA

Dont know from which airline


If that really is true, the number would fit AA reducing to just hubs and key markets like the LAX/SFO transcons. But I can't imagine them moving that quickly unless they had been planning to dehub JFK for a while. Perhaps with the anticipated economic impact post-CoViD they are executing on a plan they had in place for a deep recession.


Are we sure this is just one airline? I do think AA will be at around 40 flights a day out of JFK by the time they finish right sizing their operation, but I would've imagined they'd at least retain around 60 slots and maybe lease a 10 to other airlines at minimal cost just to retain a possibility of increasing operations.
I wouldn't be surprised if AS or one of the smaller airlines also returned some slots. At this point, I would be very surprised if DL use all of their by the time slot waiver ends. If slots are widely available, there is less incentive to run flights to keep them.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:43 am

tphuang wrote:
ScottB wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
70 JFK slots were returned to the PA

Dont know from which airline


If that really is true, the number would fit AA reducing to just hubs and key markets like the LAX/SFO transcons. But I can't imagine them moving that quickly unless they had been planning to dehub JFK for a while. Perhaps with the anticipated economic impact post-CoViD they are executing on a plan they had in place for a deep recession.


Are we sure this is just one airline? I do think AA will be at around 40 flights a day out of JFK by the time they finish right sizing their operation, but I would've imagined they'd at least retain around 60 slots and maybe lease a 10 to other airlines at minimal cost just to retain a possibility of increasing operations.
I wouldn't be surprised if AS or one of the smaller airlines also returned some slots. At this point, I would be very surprised if DL use all of their by the time slot waiver ends. If slots are widely available, there is less incentive to run flights to keep them.



Slots will never be widely available.

Simply because of the keeping up with the Jones’ mentality

B6 adding flights at JFK and EWR. So now United is adding flights out of Newark. Here comes DL at LGA

Can an airline like F9 come in and get up to 20 or 30 flights? Yes. And that is significant.

Can they come in and get up to 150 flights? Likely not.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:44 am

Bricktop wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Excellent points. Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.


Indeed, very good points, but I am not sure that sharp increases are coming, right away. They may be indeed coming in the not too distant future, particularly if more people try to drive into the city to avoid mass transit, but Federal Funds have already and more have been requested, to fund infrastructure projects in and around NYC. The joke that is the Trump Administration is may not like it, and it might not sit well with its base, but like it or not, NY will remain an outsized engine of US economy growth and that's the compelling reason for federal assistance and it will come.

I think they might get money from the Feds for infrastructure, but probably not for increased operating costs (PAPD salaries) and lost revenues from the tolls evaporating. I will never feel sorry for PANYNJ, a patronage sink since inception. Signed a NJ taxpayer and tunnel frequenter.


100% agree on your assessment of the PANYNJ. It is a veritable sinkhole.
 
max999
Posts: 1233
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:11 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
LGA project is well underway.

Likewise T1 at EWR.

Immediate projects at risk:

LGA Train

Expansion/replacement of EWR Train

Terminal 2 at EWR

Those are direct PA projects.


The Kennedy future projects are more complicated

They are funded through a mix of airline funding and port authority backing.

I would imagine any project that is not nearing completion is in peril.

The LaGuardia project will be finished simply because there isn’t room to leave it unfinished. Every section of the airport has to be used.


Specifically for LGA, I would say that the rebuilding of the DL terminal is at risk. The project is partially funded directly with DL money. If DL goes into survival mode and starts cutting everywhere, they could potentially say that the current terminal is 'good enough.'

Several reasons why this is a possibility. 1) DL's currently terminal is inadequate, but it's still newer than LGA's central terminal, which is literally falling apart. 2) DL's terminal is physically separated from the central terminal. The LGA rebuild can easily drop the DL terminal from the project plan.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
ordbosewr
Posts: 618
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:18 pm

Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:
One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.

The Port Authority's payrolls increased by over $150 Million dollars in 2019. Much of that due to the tremendous amount of overtime they have been paying the PAPD to help mitigate traffic from all the construction at LaGuardia and also in retro active payments to the PAPD who have a new contract with big salary increases.

It's not just the airports, it's the roads and highways too. I commute in to Lower Manhattan from Central New Jersey everyday for work. What was a 1.5 hour commute prior to covid is now a 50 minute drive. The trains are empty, the buses are empty. The commuter bus company I take slashed the line I use from 22 weekday trips from Central New Jersey to Wall Street to 4 weekday buses. And those buses are averaging 3 or 4 riders on each bus vs. the usual capacity of 45. The commuter parking lot where I park usually had between 100-150 cars pre covid, now there are usually 3.

I drive past EWR on the Turnpike everyday around 7:00am. Besides the FedEx, UPS and Amazon planes the only aircraft I see are 2-3 JetBlue planes an 2 AS planes at the gates. No DL, no AA etc.. There's been an EK 77W at Terminal B everyday this week, last week there was an Air India 77W. The only improvement I see is that there are noticeably more UA planes. For a while UA was only operating out of the C-3 concourse, now they're also using C-1.

Excellent points. Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.


Not connected to the PA, but NJTA (manages the tolls on the Turnpike and Garden State Parkway) just passed huge toll increases for both roads. It also includes annual toll increases (up to 3%) automatically. The increases are between 27-36%.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15272
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:22 pm

We have no idea when regular domestic and international air services will be financially viable or safe so the future is very murky. As is often said, until there is a viable vaccine and distributed to everyone in the world, over 7 Billion persons, and that could take years, flying will be at very low levels of demand. Many people will not be able to afford to fly as they don't have the incomes from any or especially good paying jobs, businesses cut back most travel to save money, fares will likely go up substantially as fewer seats in the long term.
It is most likely that some projects, like the LGA rail transit project will be killed off. Airlines won't have the money to spend for their share of investment in the projects for years. Some ongoing projects will face scaling back or taking longer to be done, due to lower or flat revenues. There will likely be demands from the City of NY and Newark, NJ for more revenues from the PA airports in their cites (the cities own the underlying property) to offset their losses of tax revenues. For sure fees, already the highest in the USA at JFK, LGA and especially EWR will go up.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6001
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:50 pm

max999 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
LGA project is well underway.

Likewise T1 at EWR.

Immediate projects at risk:

LGA Train

Expansion/replacement of EWR Train

Terminal 2 at EWR

Those are direct PA projects.


The Kennedy future projects are more complicated

They are funded through a mix of airline funding and port authority backing.

I would imagine any project that is not nearing completion is in peril.

The LaGuardia project will be finished simply because there isn’t room to leave it unfinished. Every section of the airport has to be used.


Specifically for LGA, I would say that the rebuilding of the DL terminal is at risk. The project is partially funded directly with DL money. If DL goes into survival mode and starts cutting everywhere, they could potentially say that the current terminal is 'good enough.'

Several reasons why this is a possibility. 1) DL's currently terminal is inadequate, but it's still newer than LGA's central terminal, which is literally falling apart. 2) DL's terminal is physically separated from the central terminal. The LGA rebuild can easily drop the DL terminal from the project plan.


If you went there and actually saw the project underway, You would see the cake is already baked.
The area simply is too small. It will be finished.

Perhaps they can scale back the interior touches, But the old terminals are basically gone as are the roads and parking lots
 
nkops
Posts: 2237
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:09 am

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:52 pm

ordbosewr wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
STT757 wrote:
One problem long term is that the Port Authority has been decimated by their revenues from tolls and airport fees falling off a cliff. Their very ambitious ten year capital plan, which was actually increased last year by several billion dollars, is now in jeopardy. If things don't dramatically improve anything that is not already under construction, LGA Terminal and EWR Terminal One for example, are not going to happen.

The Port Authority's payrolls increased by over $150 Million dollars in 2019. Much of that due to the tremendous amount of overtime they have been paying the PAPD to help mitigate traffic from all the construction at LaGuardia and also in retro active payments to the PAPD who have a new contract with big salary increases.

It's not just the airports, it's the roads and highways too. I commute in to Lower Manhattan from Central New Jersey everyday for work. What was a 1.5 hour commute prior to covid is now a 50 minute drive. The trains are empty, the buses are empty. The commuter bus company I take slashed the line I use from 22 weekday trips from Central New Jersey to Wall Street to 4 weekday buses. And those buses are averaging 3 or 4 riders on each bus vs. the usual capacity of 45. The commuter parking lot where I park usually had between 100-150 cars pre covid, now there are usually 3.

I drive past EWR on the Turnpike everyday around 7:00am. Besides the FedEx, UPS and Amazon planes the only aircraft I see are 2-3 JetBlue planes an 2 AS planes at the gates. No DL, no AA etc.. There's been an EK 77W at Terminal B everyday this week, last week there was an Air India 77W. The only improvement I see is that there are noticeably more UA planes. For a while UA was only operating out of the C-3 concourse, now they're also using C-1.

Excellent points. Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.


Not connected to the PA, but NJTA (manages the tolls on the Turnpike and Garden State Parkway) just passed huge toll increases for both roads. It also includes annual toll increases (up to 3%) automatically. The increases are between 27-36%.


The SJTA (which runs ACY) also had a large toll increase approved on the AC Expressway from $3 to $4.25, and upped the exits to $1.25
Turn left heading 080 contact departure
 
twaconnie
Posts: 270
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:02 pm

atlflyer wrote:
Any news on when LaGuardia Terminal B head house will open?

Also, most of the capital projects were not being paid for by the PANYNJ. At JFK, they were contributing $1 billion compared to $17 billion of private money. I think they are using capital projects as a way to get federal money for their exorbitant salaries.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html


I don't know for sure heard June 8.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7057
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:27 am

jfklganyc wrote:
If you went there and actually saw the project underway, You would see the cake is already baked.
The area simply is too small. It will be finished.

Perhaps they can scale back the interior touches, But the old terminals are basically gone as are the roads and parking lots


And they're pretty much locked into the construction contracts at this point, and if they issued bonds to fund the construction, the rates were low enough that the borrowing is nearly free. The new headhouse is about to open already, and the eastern concourse is mostly done as well. Gov. Cuomo even said recently that the project will be fast-tracked due to the crash in air traffic -- you can get stuff done faster (and cheaper) if you don't have to worry about inconveniencing passengers.

max999 wrote:
Specifically for LGA, I would say that the rebuilding of the DL terminal is at risk. The project is partially funded directly with DL money. If DL goes into survival mode and starts cutting everywhere, they could potentially say that the current terminal is 'good enough.'


Even with the DL rebuild being less far along, lots of contracts have already been let and they were starting to demolish the western pier of Terminal C when I was there in February. Plus projects like these tend to be bond-financed so I suspect they already have restricted funds on hand for the project -- basically PANYNJ issues tax-free bonds to finance the construction and Delta pledges to repay the bonds from cashflow over the terms of the bonds. It's akin to why airlines will continue to take delivery of new aircraft for a while -- they're contractually bound to do so and the financing has already been lined up for most. And less traffic may mean they can get it done faster and for less.

tphuang wrote:
I do think AA will be at around 40 flights a day out of JFK by the time they finish right sizing their operation


Well, AA has slots for about 110 daily flights from JFK so 110 - 40 = 70.
 
atlflyer
Posts: 726
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:13 am

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:37 am

Delta actually said it will expedite construction at LGA.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... omplexity/
 
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Revelation
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think business travel will be weak for a long time. Most white collar jobs are still working from home and lockdown has made it socially acceptable to do sales pitches/meetings over zoom or bloomberg terminal. It's going to take a while for businesses to losen their purses.

This would have been a controversial take a few weeks ago, now not so much.

Bricktop wrote:
Watch for huge toll increases for the bridges, tunnels, Turnpike and Parkway too.

Makes sense to me. We've shown a large percentage of people don't need to be in the office for work to get done. Raising tolls will reinforce the lessons being learned from COVID19.

STT757 wrote:
The Port Authority was working with different groups to greatly expand the airport's facilities, but as I mentioned before anything not with steal beams already being assembled is in jeopardy.

That wasn't the case back in the GFC of 2008. I remember driving past many steel skeletons that didn't get finished for years. I think projects like LGA are a bit different, though. It's not just a matter of steel being raised, it's a matter of roads being rerouted, major airside changes, etc.
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TonyClifton
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:22 pm

HPN was able to totally close down and expedite runway work. For places like LGA, this is a once in a generation chance to speed up work. Seeing the same things in various subway projects. Glad to see the time isn’t wasted.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:47 pm

NYC still seems to look healthier than London. The latter now basically has four low cost airline hubs and the vast majority of high-paying business customers will likely prefer the smaller and more central LCY airport.
 
deltairlines
Posts: 7096
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:38 pm

jfklganyc wrote:

Immediate projects at risk:

LGA Train

Expansion/replacement of EWR Train


I wouldn't cry if this meant the cancellation of the LGA AirTrain. The whole thing was a boondoggle from the day it was introduced with it going to Willets Point.

That being said, it would be a shame if this means no replacement of the EWR train. To say that thing is slow and cramped (in this era of social distancing, can you realistically get more than two people in each capsule?) is an understatement.
 
tmu101
Posts: 159
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Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:56 pm

atlflyer wrote:
Delta actually said it will expedite construction at LGA.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... omplexity/


I hope that the EWR Terminal One project can be expedited as well, take advantage of the low aircraft movements. Seems to me that it would make sense to close Terminal A, relocate those Term. A airlines into B (with reduced traffic is that even possible? Any room to spare in Terminal B to relocate everyone else temporarily?) so the airside/airfield portions of Terminal One can be completed more quickly with minimal disruption?
 
atlflyer
Posts: 726
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:13 am

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:54 pm

tmu101 wrote:
atlflyer wrote:
Delta actually said it will expedite construction at LGA.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... omplexity/


I hope that the EWR Terminal One project can be expedited as well, take advantage of the low aircraft movements. Seems to me that it would make sense to close Terminal A, relocate those Term. A airlines into B (with reduced traffic is that even possible? Any room to spare in Terminal B to relocate everyone else temporarily?) so the airside/airfield portions of Terminal One can be completed more quickly with minimal disruption?


Newark has plenty of room for construction of Terminal One compared to LGA.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6001
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: How are the NYC airports doing and what is their future? (EWR, LGA, JFK)

Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:53 am

atlflyer wrote:
tmu101 wrote:
atlflyer wrote:
Delta actually said it will expedite construction at LGA.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... omplexity/


I hope that the EWR Terminal One project can be expedited as well, take advantage of the low aircraft movements. Seems to me that it would make sense to close Terminal A, relocate those Term. A airlines into B (with reduced traffic is that even possible? Any room to spare in Terminal B to relocate everyone else temporarily?) so the airside/airfield portions of Terminal One can be completed more quickly with minimal disruption?


Newark has plenty of room for construction of Terminal One compared to LGA.



I was thinking the same thing.

Air traffic levels would have minimal effects on T1 construction speed.

Ramp work would be quicker. They could demo earlier. Beyond that not much

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