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Aither
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:41 pm

Right now such a deal would heavily rely on politics.
So I agree it's probably EVA because of what's going on in the south Chinese seas.
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:01 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
The "777X-a-Thon" is on right now for airlines ramping up the recovery curve. I bet there are some real sweetheart deals being offered by Boeing to new customers, "but for a limited time only!" Heck, there is almost-"Zero Percent Financing (to well-qualified customers)" going down now, too!

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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:15 pm

Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's. The A350-1000 is not large enough, the 777-9 is just about right. AF has some heavy premium airplanes so seat count will not be huge, their 4 class 77W seats 296.

AF also loves GE engines since so many CFM engines are made in France, but has avoided RR in the past. Only the Concorde had Rolls engines in AF previous fleet. AF had to get Rolls with their A350-900 since that is the exclusive engine on the airplane.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:42 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
kaitak744 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:

EVA is, arguably, a Chinese airline. And they are the most likely candidate.



Haha..... easy there. EVA is from the country of Taiwan.


AKA officially as The Republic of China :duck:

Could SQ be a candidate for the deal (from that other predominantly Chinese country)?


SQ don’t have 777Fs, they could possibly use more 779s as the initial 20 on order are meant to be 77W replacements probably the first batch of 19, there are 8 newer ones, I think they may reevaluate and use the initial 779s to replace at least some of the A380s. However the deal seems to indicate more 787s of which SQ have 49 781s in service or on order and very few older 777s and A333s left to replace, so I can’t see a need for additional 787s.

I wonder if some of their 781s on order could replace some 77Ws? The ones on shorter routes to Australia but there is a good amount of premium demand there so 779s on those routes to SYD/MEL probably make sense given they have always flown larger 747s, A380s and 77Ws there.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:56 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Bamboo Airways?

I doubt. Boeing has used a 777F resale to tie the customer into a 777-9 and a 787 sale so the customer must have a freighter service.

An Eva air pilot says he thinks they’re most likely customer B. From what he’s heard in-house


I think so.

- QH eyes a dozen of 777X, most probably the 777-8 for US-long haul service. Or a mix order of 778 and 779. Anyway this is a rare chance for Boeing to add some lines in the 778 order book.
- QH has 20 more 789 on MoU.
- QH wants to launch its cargo subsidiary, Bamboo Airways Cargo. Some 777F?

- QH said it will order more than 30 pairs of GEnx-1B for its order of 30 789. Not very related but, it confirmed that it orders 30x 789. It is also a good time to have a good meeting with both GE and Boeing, as the 787, 777X and the 777F are all GE-powered.

- Bonus: one of QH/FLC boss is in the US for negotiation?
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Sjtstudios
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:13 am

There is some guy Dominic gates that seems to believe or “confirm” that it’s not EVA. I guess my money would be on Saudia or Turkish then...

https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status ... 1505377282

Opus99 wrote:
I think it’s EVA Air. An eva air pilot seems to have heard a rumour as well that its them

https://twitter.com/flyingheavy747/stat ... 99008?s=21
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:49 am

Sjtstudios wrote:
There is some guy Dominic gates that seems to believe or “confirm” that it’s not EVA. I guess my money would be on Saudia or Turkish then...

https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status ... 1505377282

Opus99 wrote:
I think it’s EVA Air. An eva air pilot seems to have heard a rumour as well that its them

https://twitter.com/flyingheavy747/stat ... 99008?s=21


"Some guy" Dominic Gates is the aerospace reporter for the Seattle Times.
 
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DBCoop3r
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:03 am

"Some Guy" is probably the most informed aerospace journalist in the world.

Honestly, I can see this order being from one (or more) of the Chinese 3 as an "olive branch" from the CCP.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:54 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
Honestly, I can see this order being from one (or more) of the Chinese 3 as an "olive branch" from the CCP.


It honestly could be. China needs to increase their purchases of U.S. goods significantly under the current trade deal, but Trump is now upset at China (and the EU) for not lowering tariffs on US lobster exports and threatening counter-tariffs so... *throws up hands*
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:55 am

Sjtstudios wrote:
There is some guy Dominic gates that seems to believe or “confirm” that it’s not EVA. I guess my money would be on Saudia or Turkish then...

https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status ... 1505377282

Opus99 wrote:
I think it’s EVA Air. An eva air pilot seems to have heard a rumour as well that its them

https://twitter.com/flyingheavy747/stat ... 99008?s=21


He is the Seattle Times aerospace reporter. He's been in that role for quite a few years, and has a generally fairly reliable network of contacts in the industry.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:39 am

Motorhussy wrote:
kaitak744 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:

EVA is, arguably, a Chinese airline. And they are the most likely candidate.



Haha..... easy there. EVA is from the country of Taiwan.


AKA officially as The Republic of China :duck:

Could SQ be a candidate for the deal (from that other predominantly Chinese country)?


Not for Long, especially after the pandemic :rotfl:
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:45 am

EVA can also be it as they are not listed on any stock exchange. Most other possible candidates are listed companies.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:51 am

I mean if customer B is not EVA then who could it be? China Southern?

Or Turkish? I know they’ve been interested in it for some time
 
raylee67
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:03 pm

Customer B doesn't seem to be ANA, just purely because of the wordings:
"to purchase (i) Model 777-9 aircraft and (ii) additional Model 787 aircraft no later than June 30, 2020.”

It does not have "additional" in front of 777-9 but it has "additional" in front of 787, meaning that the airline currently has no 777-9 on order but already has 787.

Also, I would not be so quick to dismiss an airline from China, since if they are still moving forward to fulfill all or part of the "first trade deal" signed in January, they need to buy some planes from Boeing. Besides, despite the rising tension between US and China, China simply has nowhere to turn to if it wants a big civilian freighter and a large size passenger jet. The country itself is at least 20 years from being able to build one itself. Airbus doesn't have anything that rivals 777F and 777-9. EU and China is not exactly in much better terms. In that case, it could be any of CN3.

Korean is also a possibility but it may be cash strapped at this time to make down payments for such order, unless the Korean government steps in.
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:10 pm

I think we can safely discount any airline that recently placed an order for 787s or cancelled some 787s or 777Xs. They wouldn't already be in the market for another order. It is also clear that the company already has or has orders for the 787 and it probably isn't an existing 777X customer. It probably isn't a Chinese airline (as in mainland China, not Taiwan). That should narrow the list down somewhat. If we further limit it to airlines with dedicated freighters and larger airliners ala 777-300ER or bigger, I can think of:
Saudia
Turkish
Qantas
LATAM
Korean Air
Japan Airlines
EVA
Ethiopian
Air France-KLM

jfk777 wrote:
Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's. The A350-1000 is not large enough, the 777-9 is just about right. AF has some heavy premium airplanes so seat count will not be huge, their 4 class 77W seats 296.


Air France is already replacing the A380 with the A350. They have more A350s on order than what's needed to replace their entire 777-200ER and A380 fleets, so you can be certain that that's the fate of a bunch of 777-300ERs as well. The A350-1000 is definitely large enough to replace a 777-300ER directly.


Stitch wrote:
Air France has switched to the A350 so no more 787s and they would be an unlikely 777X customer.


Air France didn't switch away from the 787, the group decided to focus initial replacements at each individual airline to avoid having several inefficient small fleets. Eventually Air France will need more 787s to replace the 15 recently refurbished A330s.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:29 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
EVA can also be it as they are not listed on any stock exchange. Most other possible candidates are listed companies.

They are a listed company on TWSE!

I highly doubt it’s Eva. They, along with their competitor CI, just received massive 20 Billion TWD low-interest loans backed by the government to ensure liquidity.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:04 pm

Sorry folks, I just wasn’t familiar with his credentials. Apologies.

jbs2886 wrote:
Sjtstudios wrote:
There is some guy Dominic gates that seems to believe or “confirm” that it’s not EVA. I guess my money would be on Saudia or Turkish then...

https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status ... 1505377282

Opus99 wrote:
I think it’s EVA Air. An eva air pilot seems to have heard a rumour as well that its them

https://twitter.com/flyingheavy747/stat ... 99008?s=21


"Some guy" Dominic Gates is the aerospace reporter for the Seattle Times.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:13 pm

Aither wrote:
Right now such a deal would heavily rely on politics.
So I agree it's probably EVA because of what's going on in the south Chinese seas.


For what is happening in the South China sea, I see that it is more reasonable for that unknown customer being ASEAN carriers such as Phillipine Airlines, Vietnam Airlines, Bamboo Airways and/or Malaysia Airlines.

And yes, except MH, the remain ones all have technical reasons for the acquisition of the 777X also. VN and QH might need the 777X for their US service (they confirm that themselves), while PR has a fleet of 77W which might need to be replaced in the next few years.
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:16 pm

Opus99 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
If you look at the wording of the court document it’s clear this customer is new to the 777X


Any chance you could provide a link to those? Would be interested to read.

“In recognition of Customer’s partnership with Boeing as a 777 and 787 customer in [REDACTED], Boeing will issue to Customer a multi-model aircraft credit memorandum in the amount of [REDACTED], contingent on Customer executing definitive agreements to purchase (i) Model 777-9 aircraft and (ii) additional Model 787 aircraft no later than June 30, 2020.”

That's taken from the article. As you can see for the 787 model they use the word "additional". i believe if the customer was already a 777x customer they would've said additional 777-9 but i could be wrong


I found the word definitive interesting, as it sounds like there already are agreements to purchase 77X. That’s why I suggested LH, as the 14 which were cancelled were not fixed orders and they publicly stated that they want F’s for X’es. So I could see them behind this, changing some X’es to F’s and 787, but taking X’es.

I can’t really see any airline going for more commitments now, as liquidity is ultra tight.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:26 pm

Antaras wrote:
Seems like the "EVA pilots" know everything here, or at least they are the central of this thread :D

Opus99 wrote:
I think it’s EVA Air. An eva air pilot seems to have heard a rumour as well that its them

https://twitter.com/flyingheavy747/stat ... 99008?s=21


Opus99 wrote:
An Eva air pilot says he thinks they’re most likely customer B (Bamboo). From what he’s heard in-house

[Wait a minute, why does an EVA pilot know what is happening inside Bamboo?]


Stitch wrote:
While it is often said "pilots are the last to know about fleet purchasing decisions", I am inclined to believe the EVA Air pilot who believed it was that operator who is behind this deal. Makes the most sense of all the "usual suspects", much less the "unusual" ones.


Unfortunately those statements were making no sense when putting together. One Eva pilot said the unknown customer is Bamboo, other said that it is EVA itself.

That's life.

customer B does not mean Bamboo. the code name for the customer is B as per the court document, as the first customer that took 747-8 is customer A.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:30 pm

Opus99 wrote:
customer B does not mean Bamboo. the code name for the customer is B as per the court document, as the first customer that took 747-8 is customer A.


Nah nah I may have mis-understood that, sorry :D
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:39 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
kaitak744 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:

EVA is, arguably, a Chinese airline. And they are the most likely candidate.



Haha..... easy there. EVA is from the country of Taiwan.


Taiwan is officially the Republic of China, and they would consider themselves the legitimate China, and are Chinese.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:02 pm

Ethiopian fits this description too, new to the 777X, existing 787 and 777F operator.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:27 pm

Antaras wrote:
Aither wrote:
Right now such a deal would heavily rely on politics.
So I agree it's probably EVA because of what's going on in the south Chinese seas.


For what is happening in the South China sea, I see that it is more reasonable for that unknown customer being ASEAN carriers such as Phillipine Airlines, Vietnam Airlines, Bamboo Airways and/or Malaysia Airlines.

And yes, except MH, the remain ones all have technical reasons for the acquisition of the 777X also. VN and QH might need the 777X for their US service (they confirm that themselves), while PR has a fleet of 77W which might need to be replaced in the next few years.

PR has a relatively young fleet of 77W, first is from 2009.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:47 pm

More here:

"Squirreled away in a court document relating to an issue with cargo airline Volga-Dnepr, Boeing inadvertently announced an order for its giant widebody the 777X. The court documents suggest that a mystery airline has ordered a couple of 777F, an unnamed quantity of Dreamliners, and the 777X. The order is set to be firmed up by June 30."

https://simpleflying.com/boeing-new-777x-order/
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:48 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
More here:

"Squirreled away in a court document relating to an issue with cargo airline Volga-Dnepr, Boeing inadvertently announced an order for its giant widebody the 777X. The court documents suggest that a mystery airline has ordered a couple of 777F, an unnamed quantity of Dreamliners, and the 777X. The order is set to be firmed up by June 30."

https://simpleflying.com/boeing-new-777x-order/

More? Or just an aggregator trying to leverage someone else's reporting?
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Ishrion
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
More here:

"Squirreled away in a court document relating to an issue with cargo airline Volga-Dnepr, Boeing inadvertently announced an order for its giant widebody the 777X. The court documents suggest that a mystery airline has ordered a couple of 777F, an unnamed quantity of Dreamliners, and the 777X. The order is set to be firmed up by June 30."

https://simpleflying.com/boeing-new-777x-order/

More? Or just an aggregator trying to leverage someone else's reporting?


There’s nothing more. It’s just rephrasing what was said in the Seattle Times article.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:01 pm

I say it is TK.

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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:10 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
I found the word definitive interesting, as it sounds like there already are agreements to purchase 77X. That’s why I suggested LH, as the 14 which were cancelled were not fixed orders and they publicly stated that they want F’s for X’es. So I could see them behind this, changing some X’es to F’s and 787, but taking X’es.


I read it more as "because they are an existing 777 and 787 customer, we will cut them a nice deal on these two 777Fs and 777-9s and more 787s provided they sign a firm order for the lot".

So in other words, I do not believe we're talking about a firm order for the two 777Fs and an LoI or MoU for the 777-9s and 787s, but instead a firm order for all three models.

As for Lufthansa, I cannot see them behind the order. They just accepted a 9 billion Euro aid package from the German government to stay afloat so I cannot see them using some of that money as a down payment to order more planes - especially from Boeing instead of Airbus. They also were just tossed off the DAX exchange because their market value collapsed so hard.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:37 pm

I am thinking it could be BR. They have relatively high density 77W’s despite a moderate size premium cabin. Possibly Ethiopian, I would think they would go for the -8 since I imagine it would perform a little bit better than the -9. And they could still have quite a high density configuration.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:53 pm

oschkosch wrote:
I say it is TK.

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Yeah I think so as well, at least highly possible.
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Aither
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:44 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's. The A350-1000 is not large enough, the 777-9 is just about right. AF has some heavy premium airplanes so seat count will not be huge, their 4 class 77W seats 296.

Air France is less and less premium heavy. And that's the issue with the 77X: its economics work against the A350-1000 only if you can fill the additional capacity with high fares. That's why the 77X market is mostly limited to A380 operators. These are the carriers with some premium heavy routes. The issue, as experienced by Airbus, is only a few airlines operate enough of these type of markets.
The trend was less and less of these types of routes and the covid will probably not help.
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:52 pm

I am going to put my money on CN3: Air China, China Eastern or China Southern. All have B787 in fleet. And all have a cargo unit. Air China is B748 operator. All three have B777-300ER.

China has a trade agreement to fulfil. Some may argue China wants to renege on the current US-China trade agreement. But I think China will try to fulfil the trade agreement by purchasing some Boeing Aircrafts in exchange of something sweet in return.

And in today's market, the airline must have great financial and policy backing. Besides QR, EK and CN3, I do not see any other airlines would be in place to order VLA. Plus some European governments have bailed out its national airline on the promise to renew fleet with airbuses (I think LH bail out once rumoured to have such pressure).
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:56 pm

DLHAM wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
I say it is TK.

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Yeah I think so as well, at least highly possible.

+1. Anyone else would surprise me. No chance it's a CN3, IMO.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:30 pm

chonetsao wrote:
I am going to put my money on CN3: Air China, China Eastern or China Southern. All have B787 in fleet. And all have a cargo unit. Air China is B748 operator. All three have B777-300ER.

China has a trade agreement to fulfil. Some may argue China wants to renege on the current US-China trade agreement. But I think China will try to fulfil the trade agreement by purchasing some Boeing Aircrafts in exchange of something sweet in return.

And in today's market, the airline must have great financial and policy backing. Besides QR, EK and CN3, I do not see any other airlines would be in place to order VLA. Plus some European governments have bailed out its national airline on the promise to renew fleet with airbuses (I think LH bail out once rumoured to have such pressure).

The acid test is who has the need? Who has the deep pockets (or access to others with deep pockets) if predicting the need? Is the order completely new, or will it include cancellations / existing order re-arrangement with other airlines? Will any of it be unconditional? Will it include a JV (like the EK/QF model)?

Most likely a Chinese counter-party, not necessarily an airline at this stage. Conditional on finance, a JV with Boeing, regulatory approval of an airline JV, and outcome of the Presidential elections?

No incentive to order WB aircraft at present, unless there is more than aircraft at stake. Prices are yet to bottom, and sweet deals have yet to peak.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:21 pm

smartplane wrote:

No incentive to order WB aircraft at present, unless there is more than aircraft at stake.

Of course there is. The WB order is a carrot for additional discounts to take new build 77Fs now (or relatively soon). If you wait maybe you can get better passenger widebody pricing, but you risk losing the opportunity to get cheap 77F capacity quickly (which presumably the buyer sees a long term need for). The buyer has to decide if they want cheaper freighters now and potentially more expensive passenger planes later, or potentially cheaper passenger planes later but also potentially more expensive freighters later (which may also miss the current lucrative cargo demand). Or decouple them and have potentially cheaper passenger planes later but more expensive cargo planes now (when cash flow is most critical).

It’s all a gamble. Nobody knows when pricing will hit their floor because nobody knows what the recovery is actually going to be like yet.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:21 pm

Antaras wrote:
Aither wrote:
Right now such a deal would heavily rely on politics.
So I agree it's probably EVA because of what's going on in the south Chinese seas.


For what is happening in the South China sea, I see that it is more reasonable for that unknown customer being ASEAN carriers such as Phillipine Airlines, Vietnam Airlines, Bamboo Airways and/or Malaysia Airlines.

And yes, except MH, the remain ones all have technical reasons for the acquisition of the 777X also. VN and QH might need the 777X for their US service (they confirm that themselves), while PR has a fleet of 77W which might need to be replaced in the next few years.

It is not PR. They have been going Airbus very heavily, and they are not large enough to benefit from having a Boeing subfleet. They bought the 77W because nothing Airbus was offering at the time could match it. But now they have the A350, with which they can do MNL-JFK nonstop (which they couldn’t with the 77W, and probably can’t with the 779). And they have no 787s or 77Fs and are highly unlikely to get any.
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Devilfish
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:59 pm

SEPilot wrote:
It is not PR. They have been going Airbus very heavily, and they are not large enough to benefit from having a Boeing subfleet.

Besides, PR is currently struggling under heavy losses and hinting of possible further layoffs, engine deals renegotiation and aircraft lease returns.....

https://business.inquirer.net/299197/pa ... st-quarter
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
AB330
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:14 am

Devilfish wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
It is not PR. They have been going Airbus very heavily, and they are not large enough to benefit from having a Boeing subfleet.

Besides, PR is currently struggling under heavy losses and hinting of possible further layoffs, engine deals renegotiation and aircraft lease returns.....


Won't be surprised if one of those aircraft types the PAL will return to back to leasing companies will be the B77W. Being the largest aircraft type in the fleet with 10 I won't be surprised if it was reduced by 2-4 aircraft with the remaining 6-8 likely to served the airline unitl 2025.

As for long-term fleet development the A350-900 will likely become the backbone of PAL long-haul fleet with the A350-1000 serving as a 1:1 replacement for the B777-300ER.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:52 am

Whaoooh! Most of you speculating about "Who" might be behind this order seem to take it for granted that it is a done deal. History shows that overconfidence in declaring there will be a deal by such-and-such a date is one of the best ways of ensuring said deal does not happen

Is anyone sure that the contract for the Fat Lady has been signed?
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:08 am

sassiciai wrote:
Whaoooh! Most of you speculating about "Who" might be behind this order seem to take it for granted that it is a done deal. History shows that overconfidence in declaring there will be a deal by such-and-such a date is one of the best ways of ensuring said deal does not happen

Is anyone sure that the contract for the Fat Lady has been signed?


History hasn’t given us a court document with Boeing explicitly laying out an order and anticipated closing date.
 
jfk777
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:10 pm

Aither wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's. The A350-1000 is not large enough, the 777-9 is just about right. AF has some heavy premium airplanes so seat count will not be huge, their 4 class 77W seats 296.

Air France is less and less premium heavy. And that's the issue with the 77X: its economics work against the A350-1000 only if you can fill the additional capacity with high fares. That's why the 77X market is mostly limited to A380 operators. These are the carriers with some premium heavy routes. The issue, as experienced by Airbus, is only a few airlines operate enough of these type of markets.
The trend was less and less of these types of routes and the covid will probably not help.


Even as Business and First Class evolve Air France will always be a premium airline, doubtful they will kill First Class even if it is just one row with four seats as their 77W has now. Even with the 35 or so A350-900 AF will in a few years they have a huge long haul fleet with enough room for more than one type of airplane.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:43 pm

AB330 wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
It is not PR. They have been going Airbus very heavily, and they are not large enough to benefit from having a Boeing subfleet.

Besides, PR is currently struggling under heavy losses and hinting of possible further layoffs, engine deals renegotiation and aircraft lease returns.....


Won't be surprised if one of those aircraft types the PAL will return to back to leasing companies will be the B77W. Being the largest aircraft type in the fleet with 10 I won't be surprised if it was reduced by 2-4 aircraft with the remaining 6-8 likely to served the airline unitl 2025.

As for long-term fleet development the A350-900 will likely become the backbone of PAL long-haul fleet with the A350-1000 serving as a 1:1 replacement for the B777-300ER.

No question the 77Ws will be gone at the first opportunity and be replaced by the A350.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:20 pm

sassiciai wrote:
Whaoooh! Most of you speculating about "Who" might be behind this order seem to take it for granted that it is a done deal. History shows that overconfidence in declaring there will be a deal by such-and-such a date is one of the best ways of ensuring said deal does not happen.

Is anyone sure that the contract for the Fat Lady has been signed?


It might have been signed since Boeing does not list new orders until the end of the month or they are still working on the deal.

What is important in the case of this deal is that Boeing is requiring a legally-binding sales contract with an airline not just for the two NTU 777 freighters, but also for additional 787 frames as well as a new order for 777-9 frames. So this is not a case of a "Letter of Intent" or "Memorandum of Understanding" or a "Commitment" that is subject to later conversion into a sales contract, but an actual sales contract from the get-go.
 
Antarius
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:42 pm

sassiciai wrote:
Whaoooh! Most of you speculating about "Who" might be behind this order seem to take it for granted that it is a done deal. History shows that overconfidence in declaring there will be a deal by such-and-such a date is one of the best ways of ensuring said deal does not happen

Is anyone sure that the contract for the Fat Lady has been signed?


No one is sure, but it is interesting to speculate. If we had to wait for a done deal, then we may as well just read the news.

Also as Stitch said above, this is more than a rumour.
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Opus99
Topic Author
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:52 pm

Stitch wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
Whaoooh! Most of you speculating about "Who" might be behind this order seem to take it for granted that it is a done deal. History shows that overconfidence in declaring there will be a deal by such-and-such a date is one of the best ways of ensuring said deal does not happen.

Is anyone sure that the contract for the Fat Lady has been signed?


It might have been signed since Boeing does not list new orders until the end of the month or they are still working on the deal.

What is important in the case of this deal is that Boeing is requiring a legally-binding sales contract with an airline not just for the two NTU 777 freighters, but also for additional 787 frames as well as a new order for 777-9 frames. So this is not a case of a "Letter of Intent" or "Memorandum of Understanding" or a "Commitment" that is subject to later conversion into a sales contract, but an actual sales contract from the get-go.

And Boeing may still very much list them as an undisclosed customer for the time being, maybe till the time is appropriate. Seeing as we are in the coronavirus and some airlines securing orders whilst letting people go might not be the best idea
 
VSMUT
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:04 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Aither wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's. The A350-1000 is not large enough, the 777-9 is just about right. AF has some heavy premium airplanes so seat count will not be huge, their 4 class 77W seats 296.

Air France is less and less premium heavy. And that's the issue with the 77X: its economics work against the A350-1000 only if you can fill the additional capacity with high fares. That's why the 77X market is mostly limited to A380 operators. These are the carriers with some premium heavy routes. The issue, as experienced by Airbus, is only a few airlines operate enough of these type of markets.
The trend was less and less of these types of routes and the covid will probably not help.


Even as Business and First Class evolve Air France will always be a premium airline, doubtful they will kill First Class even if it is just one row with four seats as their 77W has now. Even with the 35 or so A350-900 AF will in a few years they have a huge long haul fleet with enough room for more than one type of airplane.


There are aircraft as small as the 787-9 that feature 4-class configurations. Explain again why the bigger A350 can't do it?
 
Opus99
Topic Author
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:12 pm

http://www.paineairport.com/kpae18380d.htm

This 777F with line number 1657 is currently listed for volga. they are currently listed for air bridge cargo which is a subsidiary of volga.

After doing some investigation, i can see another reason volga were hot on the aircraft, they had actually signed a sale and leaseback on those first 3 777Fs, obviously that can't happen now.

So even if Boeing doesn't tell us, whatever livery this aircraft receieves, we will know from there
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:28 pm

Antarius wrote:
Also as Stitch said above, this is more than a rumour.


Right. This isn't the usual "sources who wish to remain anonymous." This is one of the parties of the contract that is being negotiated stating in a court filing that they are working on such a contract.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:40 am

I hope it's Korean Air. But they're not doing well financially at the moment.

Stitch wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
Honestly, I can see this order being from one (or more) of the Chinese 3 as an "olive branch" from the CCP.


It honestly could be. China needs to increase their purchases of U.S. goods significantly under the current trade deal, but Trump is now upset at China (and the EU) for not lowering tariffs on US lobster exports and threatening counter-tariffs so... *throws up hands*


raylee67 wrote:
Also, I would not be so quick to dismiss an airline from China, since if they are still moving forward to fulfill all or part of the "first trade deal" signed in January, they need to buy some planes from Boeing. Besides, despite the rising tension between US and China, China simply has nowhere to turn to if it wants a big civilian freighter and a large size passenger jet. The country itself is at least 20 years from being able to build one itself. Airbus doesn't have anything that rivals 777F and 777-9. EU and China is not exactly in much better terms. In that case, it could be any of CN3.


chonetsao wrote:
I am going to put my money on CN3: Air China, China Eastern or China Southern. All have B787 in fleet. And all have a cargo unit. Air China is B748 operator. All three have B777-300ER.

China has a trade agreement to fulfil. Some may argue China wants to renege on the current US-China trade agreement. But I think China will try to fulfil the trade agreement by purchasing some Boeing Aircrafts in exchange of something sweet in return.



People have been pointing to the trade balance and saying that China would order lots of 777Xs/787s to address this since mid 2017. Nothing has come of this. The CCP isn't an institution with a reputation for holding out Olive Branches....

DUSZRH wrote:
I found the word definitive interesting, as it sounds like there already are agreements to purchase 77X. That’s why I suggested LH, as the 14 which were cancelled were not fixed orders and they publicly stated that they want F’s for X’es. So I could see them behind this, changing some X’es to F’s and 787, but taking X’es.


What's in it for Boeing though? The 777X desperately needs orders - much more desperate than Boeing needs to move the three 777F (high demand model). I could definitely see Lufthansa wanting what you suggest, but I'm sceptical that Boeing would agree to it.

DUSZRH wrote:
I can’t really see any airline going for more commitments now, as liquidity is ultra tight.


:checkmark: Same. Especially when airlines are shooting into the dark when it comes to predicting future demand - even for a few years into the future. Very hard to see any airline ordering widebodies in this climate, especially without solid escape clauses.

But if Dominic Gates says something is happening, then it's probably happening.
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