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MrBren
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:44 am

Is the 77X in a so desperate situation?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:50 am

MrBren wrote:
Is the 77X in a so desperate situation?

Quite frankly, if I was Boeing I would do the exact same. Anything that seats between 350-400 seats is in a desperate situation and I’ll do anything to sell it.
 
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MrBren
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:53 am

Opus99 wrote:
MrBren wrote:
Is the 77X in a so desperate situation?

Quite frankly, if I was Boeing I would do the exact same. Anything that seats between 350-400 seats is in a desperate situation and I’ll do anything to sell it.


OK so it is in a desperate situation. Does it mean the 77X is already dead knowing it is not operated yet?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:01 am

MrBren wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
MrBren wrote:
Is the 77X in a so desperate situation?

Quite frankly, if I was Boeing I would do the exact same. Anything that seats between 350-400 seats is in a desperate situation and I’ll do anything to sell it.


OK so it is in a desperate situation. Does it mean the 77X is already dead knowing it is not operated yet?

I don’t think it’s dead yet, if it were, I don’t think an airline would sign to taking it on regardless of how Boeing manages the situation. No airline will order and aircraft they don’t want right. Even if indeed Primarily it’s a deal on on another aircraft they could’ve always pushed the order to more 787s or the max or something else. And I think that if indeed it does meet and surpass expectations it will do very well and I think current orders will stay put. Deferrals definitely, cancellations not so much. The thing about the 777X order book is that full of airlines that have access to massive government bailouts that allow them to both survive and grow post covid 19. Look at LH 9 billion euros, CX 5 billion dollars etc. EK I think may cancel some more at the worst. I believe it’s probable they will defer heavily. Boeing will do whatever is needed to ensure they don’t cancel.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:21 am

Opus99 wrote:
I don’t think it’s dead yet, if it were, I don’t think an airline would sign to taking it on regardless of how Boeing manages the situation. No airline will order and aircraft they don’t want right. Even if indeed Primarily it’s a deal on on another aircraft they could’ve always pushed the order to more 787s or the max or something else. And I think that if indeed it does meet and surpass expectations it will do very well and I think current orders will stay put. Deferrals definitely, cancellations not so much. The thing about the 777X order book is that full of airlines that have access to massive government bailouts that allow them to both survive and grow post covid 19. Look at LH 9 billion euros, CX 5 billion dollars etc. EK I think may cancel some more at the worst. I believe it’s probable they will defer heavily. Boeing will do whatever is needed to ensure they don’t cancel.



Not only all that, but it is easy to forget how long lived these programs are intended to be. B did not develop the 77X —nor A the 35X— as some ten year VLA stop-gap. These are the future of VLA aircraft. And until some fundemental sea change occures in commercial aircraft design, we will not see a replacement for these.

I do fully believe there will be incremental and periodic updates to powerplants that may very will add double digit efficiency gains. As well, materials processing will be a huge factor here. But though a 779 built in 2037 may well have a full generation advancement in these areas, it will still be a 779, albeit maybe with some new letters after. The enormous investments in these programs will make it nigh on impossible for either A or B to back away from this barring some new, literal game changing tech to come along. Big Twin VLAs simply do not need to undergo structural level improvements to remain current, now that the two engined, twin aisle paradigm has been set and fine tuned.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:34 am

This suggests either ANA, EVA or China and the order will fill delivery slots cancelled by other airlines:

"Some customers dropped their existing orders with Boeing due to the ongoing global health crisis that slumped the demand for Air travel. But some new customers want to take these jets and an agreement with one of them that could add new orders to the manufacturer's 777X and 787 Dreamliner backlogs by the end of this month".

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/06/n ... -take.html
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:44 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
This suggests either ANA, EVA or China and the order will fill delivery slots cancelled by other airlines:

"Some customers dropped their existing orders with Boeing due to the ongoing global health crisis that slumped the demand for Air travel. But some new customers want to take these jets and an agreement with one of them that could add new orders to the manufacturer's 777X and 787 Dreamliner backlogs by the end of this month".

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/06/n ... -take.html

I think he means with regards to the freighters
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:12 pm

Smart managers often buck conventional wisdom. That conventional wisdom today is that air travel will take a long time to recover and large widebodies are white elephants to be shunned. But that may not be the case. An airline manager who believes this and has access to financing would be in a position to make some really good deals right now. So that may be what is behind this rumor. As to which airline, the one that makes the most sense to me is EVA. They were one of the earliest 77W operators and have done very well with it. But to the best of my knowledge they have not committed to a successor. And I believe that if rumors about its performance are accurate that it will suit them perfectly. Unlike PR they do not need any more range than the 77W offers and they have a large pool of pilots trained on it. And they have a robust freight operation as well that uses the 77F. And they have the 789. Everything fits.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:36 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Smart managers often buck conventional wisdom. That conventional wisdom today is that air travel will take a long time to recover and large widebodies are white elephants to be shunned. But that may not be the case. An airline manager who believes this and has access to financing would be in a position to make some really good deals right now.


Low(er) purchase cost is nice but you have to ask what kind of additional discount can be obtained vs. typical pricing for the world's largest carriers. Low purchase price doesn't help fill seats nor aircraft bellies over a 30+ year fleet life for the type, but buying now does use capital and lock you into the type. There is typically a value to maximizing optionality, ie being able to defer a decision until the circumstances are better known. We see this in aircraft deals all the time: an order for 50 frames and 50 options, taking out A321s instead of the A319s ordered, taking MAX 10s instead of the MAX 9s ordered, deferring A350s at the cost of buying more A330neos now...

It's been stated above, but a court filing is great evidence. It beats the snot out of unsubstantiated, unsourced rumors that stretch out so many threads here.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:58 pm

A further point about EVA. They seem to have been simplifying their fleet in recent years, and they are small enough that having a mixed fleet is a distinct liability. They have a substantial A330 fleet that is still young, but they have bought the 787 and it will presumably replace the A330s when they retire. That will leave only the A321 (still young) as an Airbus in their fleet, which could eventually be replaced by the MAX-9 or -10, or the NMA if it ever comes forth. But the trend is clearly toward an all Boeing fleet, just as PR is rapidly heading to an all Airbus fleet.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:52 pm

EVA Air's parent company Evergreen has deep pockets so this could be seen as a good buying opportunity by them, which they are able to afford.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:49 pm

Well the 2x 777F are now on Boeing's orderbook. UFO of course. But no new 787/777X order.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437887&start=166
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
Ishrion
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:51 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Well the 2x 777F are now on Boeing's orderbook. UFO of course. But no new 787/777X order.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437887&start=167


The 787/777X orders haven't been firmed yet. The declaration stated by the end of June 2020.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:55 pm

Ishrion wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Well the 2x 777F are now on Boeing's orderbook. UFO of course. But no new 787/777X order.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437887&start=167


The 787/777X orders haven't been firmed yet. The declaration stated by the end of June 2020.

and the 777F sale only closed on the 29th of May so about a week and a half ago, I imagine the 777x/787 order will be worked through this month because according to those court filings it seems as though it will be breaking contract if they do not order those aircraft. i can imagine they were waiting on the court ruling on those aircraft
Last edited by Opus99 on Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:00 pm

So Boeing will log new orders by canceling previous contracts via court filings.

That means the net change will still be 0, right?
Good moaning!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:05 pm

Yes the net overall change will be zero.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:05 pm

The 777F deal was placed on the same date as a 767F deal, which means that it's still very probable that this has nothing to do with the rumored 777X/787 order.

Keep in mind that the market is very volatile right now, nothing is certain, especially rumors about large orders and cancellations.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:11 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The 777F deal was placed on the same date as a 767F deal, which means that it's still very probable that this has nothing to do with the rumored 777X/787 order.

Keep in mind that the market is very volatile right now, nothing is certain, especially rumors about large orders and cancellations.

I wouldn't classify a court document as a rumour...if something was not somewhat confirmed i don't know why i would put it in a court document.

Dominic Gates thinks itsUPS taking the 767F seeing as they're the only other customer taking in the 767F order book
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:17 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The 777F deal was placed on the same date as a 767F deal, which means that it's still very probable that this has nothing to do with the rumored 777X/787 order.


Volga-Dnepr had three 777 freighters on order so the two NTUs listed in the court document going to "Customer B" have to be going to an airline because "Customer B" is noted in those same court documents as being an existing customer for 777 passenger frames and 787 passenger frames. And those court documents say that as a condition of taking the two Volga-Dnepr NTU 777Fs, "Customer B" also has to place a new order for 787s as well as a new order for the 777-9.

In another thread, you suggested that FedEx could be the customer for the two Volga-Dnepr NTU 777Fs since they also ordered one 767-300F in early May and there is a UFO order for five 767-300F from late May. However, since FedEx is not a customer for the 787 in any form, nor a customer for the passenger version of the 777, they cannot be "Customer B".

The five UFO 767-300Fs being for UPS seems plausible to me since they only have six frames left in their existing backlog.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:06 pm

My 2 cents will be on SQ rather than NH or Eva.
 
jfk777
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:19 pm

Opus99 wrote:
MrBren wrote:
Is the 77X in a so desperate situation?

Quite frankly, if I was Boeing I would do the exact same. Anything that seats between 350-400 seats is in a desperate situation and I’ll do anything to sell it.


All the people saying there is no market for a 400 seat passenger plane were saying the A380 was going to seat 800 ? Who operates an 800 people A380 or anything close ? NO ONE. The 777X as the A380 will be flown on premium routes with lost of J class and Premium economy passengers plus even 4 or 8 First Class ones. The 400 seat 777X will be few and far between, may Air Austral, most will have 300-350 seats.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:26 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
MrBren wrote:
Is the 77X in a so desperate situation?

Quite frankly, if I was Boeing I would do the exact same. Anything that seats between 350-400 seats is in a desperate situation and I’ll do anything to sell it.


All the people saying there is no market for a 400 seat passenger plane were saying the A380 was going to seat 800 ? Who operates an 800 people A380 or anything close ? NO ONE. The 777X as the A380 will be flown on premium routes with lost of J class and Premium economy passengers plus even 4 or 8 First Class ones. The 400 seat 777X will be few and far between, may Air Austral, most will have 300-350 seats.

I agree with you. That doesn’t mean the current situation for large wide bodies isn’t bad. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a strong future. It definitely does and I’m of the opinion that it will do very well actually
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:45 pm

 
MileHFL400
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:40 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/jenschuld/status/1275872144304431104?s=21

It was China Eastern


Does that mean we ll see an order for the 787 and 777x from them in the coming days?
Thanks and best Regards
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:46 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
MileHFL400 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/jenschuld/status/1275872144304431104?s=21

It was China Eastern


Does that mean we ll see an order for the 787 and 777x from them in the coming days?


According to court documents, yes. Though I would expect Boeing to still list them as an unidentified customer like they did with the 777F
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:16 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/jenschuld/status/1275872144304431104?s=21

It was China Eastern


What is this tweet suppose to show?

edit: I had to re-read the OP, understand it now.
Last edited by ikolkyo on Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:18 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
What is this tweet suppose to show?


That frame is one of the Volga-Dnepr 777 Freighter NTUs which was re-sold to "Customer B", which has now been identified as China Southern. "Customer B" also agreed to place a firm order for additional 787s (they are a current 787-9 operator) and a new firm order for 777-9s.
Last edited by Stitch on Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:18 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/jenschuld/status/1275872144304431104?s=21

It was China Eastern


What is this tweet suppose to show?

Who “customer B” is
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:21 pm

China Eastern fits the bill, as it stand right now with all deliveries complete it would only have a fleet of 5 787s. Plus their largest aircraft is currently the 77W and if they would like to get any bigger the 779 is the way to go.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:57 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
China Eastern fits the bill, as it stand right now with all deliveries complete it would only have a fleet of 5 787s. Plus their largest aircraft is currently the 77W and if they would like to get any bigger the 779 is the way to go.


Along with Eastern's five 787s, their subsidiary Shanghai Airlines will have 10 787-9s once all are delivered. I believe their order was placed by China Eastern?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:59 pm

Ishrion wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
China Eastern fits the bill, as it stand right now with all deliveries complete it would only have a fleet of 5 787s. Plus their largest aircraft is currently the 77W and if they would like to get any bigger the 779 is the way to go.


Along with Eastern's five 787s, their subsidiary Shanghai Airlines will have 10 787-9s once all are delivered. I believe their order was placed by China Eastern?

Yes it was placed by China eastern
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:47 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's.


Based on what? How do you know they don't want to shrink capacity (other than them saying it).



jfk777 wrote:
The A350-1000 is not large enough


....again, based on _______?



jfk777 wrote:
Only the Concorde had Rolls engines in AF previous fleet.

Not exactly. AF short-term leased L1011 in the past with RR.
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danipawa
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:03 am

So this new B789 order could be for their new airline Sanya Airlines:

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 am

LAX772LR wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's.


Based on what? How do you know they don't want to shrink capacity (other than them saying it).



jfk777 wrote:
The A350-1000 is not large enough


....again, based on _______?



jfk777 wrote:
Only the Concorde had Rolls engines in AF previous fleet.

Not exactly. AF short-term leased L1011 in the past with RR.


They also operated over 50 RR-powered Caravelle IIIs.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 am

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 74a049190c

Will Horton says the deal is not contingent on a 777-9/787 order.

The below is from Dominic Gates Article:

The court filings also include an April 2 purchase agreement with another unnamed airline, Customer B, to purchase two of the three 777Fs originally meant for Volga.

The agreement outlines a series of “credit memos” for the two 777Fs, with all financial details redacted, that likely stipulate the discounts Boeing is providing. And an additional memo makes clear the deal is conditional on an agreement to purchase multiple Boeing models.

“In recognition of Customer’s partnership with Boeing as a 777 and 787 customer in [REDACTED], Boeing will issue to Customer a multi-model aircraft credit memorandum in the amount of [REDACTED], contingent on Customer executing definitive agreements to purchase (i) Model 777-9 aircraft and (ii) additional Model 787 aircraft no later than June 30, 2020.”
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:02 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Will Horton says the deal is not contingent on a 777-9/787 order.


True, so China Eastern could just agree to pay a higher price for the two freighters they are taking. We will know soon enough since the window to take advantage of the 777F purchase credits closes on 30 June.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Stitch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Will Horton says the deal is not contingent on a 777-9/787 order.


True, so China Eastern could just agree to pay a higher price for the two freighters they are taking. We will know soon enough since the window to take advantage of the 777F purchase credits closes on 30 June.


Agreed.

That will be a good choice at this time. An order (even heavily discounted) for 777X/787 will require some percentage paid as a deposit/down payment now.

Those pax aircraft are definitely not needed at the moment and probably won't be for years to come.

Take the aircraft you need NOW (freighters), even at a lower discount, instead of tying up cash unnecessarily. And we all know that in the next few years, given the soft market expected, Boeing (and Airbus for that matter) will be desperate to be make new sales on their pax aircraft and airlines will get amazing discounts anyway.

For the airline (who we are quite sure at this point is China Eastern) it's a real win.
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smartplane
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:39 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
An order (even heavily discounted) for 777X/787 will require some percentage paid as a deposit/down payment now.

Unlikely. Most customers apply existing accrued credits held with the OEM.
 
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:58 pm

smartplane wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
An order (even heavily discounted) for 777X/787 will require some percentage paid as a deposit/down payment now.

Unlikely. Most customers apply existing accrued credits held with the OEM.


You are probably right.
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danipawa
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:31 pm

So hope to see news this Monday ?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:34 pm

danipawa wrote:
So hope to see news this Monday ?

Depends. We might not see it till Boeing updates it’s orders and deliveries, especially if they keep them still as unidentified customers which would be July
 
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Antaras
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:24 am

So...there is still no info of this order yet???
[LOL it's August now]
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Ishrion
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:38 am

Antaras wrote:
So...there is still no info of this order yet???
[LOL it's August now]


Unfortunately no, but Boeing’s still negotiating with MU:
https://mobile.twitter.com/dominicgates ... 8604243968
 
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Antaras
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:20 am

Ishrion wrote:
Antaras wrote:
So...there is still no info of this order yet???
[LOL it's August now]


Unfortunately no, but Boeing’s still negotiating with MU:
https://mobile.twitter.com/dominicgates ... 8604243968

Well if MU orders the planes, it would be sensitive these days.

(I hoped that the customer would be Bamboo or EVA, LOL)
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:02 am

Stitch wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
Whaoooh! Most of you speculating about "Who" might be behind this order seem to take it for granted that it is a done deal. History shows that overconfidence in declaring there will be a deal by such-and-such a date is one of the best ways of ensuring said deal does not happen.

Is anyone sure that the contract for the Fat Lady has been signed?


It might have been signed since Boeing does not list new orders until the end of the month or they are still working on the deal.

What is important in the case of this deal is that Boeing is requiring a legally-binding sales contract with an airline not just for the two NTU 777 freighters, but also for additional 787 frames as well as a new order for 777-9 frames. So this is not a case of a "Letter of Intent" or "Memorandum of Understanding" or a "Commitment" that is subject to later conversion into a sales contract, but an actual sales contract from the get-go.

So, still no signs of the Fat Lady?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:07 am

I don't expect anything fruitful from the Chinese carriers till the outcome of the US election is clear. IMHO
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:16 pm

sassiciai wrote:
So, still no signs of the Fat Lady?


Nope.

They could still be negotiating or Boeing eventually accepted the two 777Fs and decoupled the requirement for additional orders.

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