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JerseyFlyer
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Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:38 pm

The previous thread is locked for going off-topic, but the subject will develop over the coming months and years so I thought a new thread was needed.

Currently dormant, Sunrise is most certainly not dead. This from Simple Flying quoting an Alan Joyce webcast:

"During a Friday webcast discussing the tourism industry, Joyce was discussing his airline’s pursuit of direct, non-stop service between London and Sydney. He is quoted as saying: “I think the business case for doing it is very strong…the aircraft are not going anywhere. When we are comfortable in doing it and have the financial strength to do it, we will be doing it.” -Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas"

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-project ... -update-2/
 
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DL747400
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:53 pm

Good grief, not another thread on this!

Time to face reality and admit that the sun has set on Project Sunrise.
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:04 pm

DL747400 wrote:
Good grief, not another thread on this!

Time to face reality and admit that the sun has set on Project Sunrise.

Of anything, the virus should boost the demand on direct nonstop route, as it omit the hassle of dealing with quarantine rule of different countries and reduce the risk of infection from repeated boarding and deboarding different aircrafts with different passengers and different crew
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:09 pm

Within 3-4 years, I expect that things should recover back to normal to where quarantine rules should be relaxed. However, temperature checks before departure and on arrival to any international destination (for purposes of this, I exclude within Schengen, US-Canada cross-border, and trans-Tasman) will likely be the new normal, in addition to immigration and customs. The temp checks may be done by immigration officials. With that, I can see JFK-SYD being a go by NW24 (needing at least 3 frames before starting), with familiarization flights before then.

Remember, QF already has the slots on the JFK end. It could simply request to push back the JFK return departure back 2 hours to not arrive before the early SYD curfew ends. (By this time, I expect that it would be competing with EWR-AKL, which won't fly in NW20, but could fly in NS21.)
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:43 pm

Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:47 pm

tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Would the B789s that currently do ULH then be re-configured for shorter-haul operations to replace the A330 fleet?
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:34 am

I suspect things are going to be Very Vague for the next year at least, which may be Very Vexatious for some...

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Antarius
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:42 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Would the B789s that currently do ULH then be re-configured for shorter-haul operations to replace the A330 fleet?


I doubt it. QF is happy with their 789s. Also the a35K is large and may be excessive for some routes, while being better suited for high volume and yield routes.

No reason they can't have 2 fleet types that complement each other.
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StudiodeKadent
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:00 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Would the B789s that currently do ULH then be re-configured for shorter-haul operations to replace the A330 fleet?


Its likely that QF will get more 787-9s to replace the A330s, but stack them with a denser, less-premium configuration (say 28B, 21PE, 200+E). However QF will still need the longhaul 787-9s for additional frequencies Transpacific, to do Dallas, for PER-LHR, and for SYD - Johannesburg/Santiago/Vancouver.

So I'd say there's going to be two subfleets of 787-9s at QF. The 787-9L fleet (the current ones, for VLH routes) and the 787-9R fleet (new ones with the denser configuration intended to replace A330s, hence 'R' for Regional).

Presumably many of those A321XLRs the Qantas Group has on order will be used for smaller/even less premium Asian destinations, too (Jakarta, Bali, Manila, Bangkok perhaps, maybe Taipei).
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:09 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Would the B789s that currently do ULH then be re-configured for shorter-haul operations to replace the A330 fleet?


Its likely that QF will get more 787-9s to replace the A330s, but stack them with a denser, less-premium configuration (say 28B, 21PE, 200+E). However QF will still need the longhaul 787-9s for additional frequencies Transpacific, to do Dallas, for PER-LHR, and for SYD - Johannesburg/Santiago/Vancouver.

So I'd say there's going to be two subfleets of 787-9s at QF. The 787-9L fleet (the current ones, for VLH routes) and the 787-9R fleet (new ones with the denser configuration intended to replace A330s, hence 'R' for Regional).

Presumably many of those A321XLRs the Qantas Group has on order will be used for smaller/even less premium Asian destinations, too (Jakarta, Bali, Manila, Bangkok perhaps, maybe Taipei).


While I don’t disagree that QF may well end up with 2 789 sub fleets I think the A351 will replace it on several current routes in time like PER-LHR and possibly DFW which up till now atleast was an A380, MEL-DFW will likely still happen in time which may need an A350 plus an A350 ex SYD.

QF may or may not keep the existing 789 configuration once there is enough A350s, I’ve no idea when as obviously the A350 hasn’t been formed up yet and will depend on how the market recovers also on how many A380s QF fly again and for how long, A350s are likely to replace those aswell.

The A330 fleet is great for Asia and it is likely that QF will get more 787s to replace these, weather they are 789 or 781 remains to be seen, quite likely without W class, the A330 doesn’t have W but these aircraft do fly domestically a lot aswell which I think we will see less of with whatever replaces them.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:20 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

While I don’t disagree that QF may well end up with 2 789 sub fleets I think the A351 will replace it on several current routes in time like PER-LHR and possibly DFW which up till now atleast was an A380, MEL-DFW will likely still happen in time which may need an A350 plus an A350 ex SYD.


I honestly don't think QF will want to run the A350-1000s from anywhere other than SYD and MEL. The A350-1000s will have First, and there's very little First demand to any places in Australia other than Melbourne and Sydney. Plus, I doubt QF would want to build any more dedicated First lounges.

Honestly not too sure about MEL-DFW. Its only a tiny bit shorter than PER-LHR but with far more ocean, as well as the Pacific winds to deal with. SYD-DFW is a no-brainer however, and they may also do BNE-DFW in the future.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:45 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

While I don’t disagree that QF may well end up with 2 789 sub fleets I think the A351 will replace it on several current routes in time like PER-LHR and possibly DFW which up till now atleast was an A380, MEL-DFW will likely still happen in time which may need an A350 plus an A350 ex SYD.


I honestly don't think QF will want to run the A350-1000s from anywhere other than SYD and MEL. The A350-1000s will have First, and there's very little First demand to any places in Australia other than Melbourne and Sydney. Plus, I doubt QF would want to build any more dedicated First lounges.

Honestly not too sure about MEL-DFW. Its only a tiny bit shorter than PER-LHR but with far more ocean, as well as the Pacific winds to deal with. SYD-DFW is a no-brainer however, and they may also do BNE-DFW in the future.


What does having ‘far more ocean’ on the DFW-MEL leg have to do with anything?

It’s not like the flight will just fall out of the sky due to running out of fuel. These things are calculated prior to takeoff, but should it need to divert due to unexpected headwinds, there are plenty of places to do it, namely SYD.
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:34 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

While I don’t disagree that QF may well end up with 2 789 sub fleets I think the A351 will replace it on several current routes in time like PER-LHR and possibly DFW which up till now atleast was an A380, MEL-DFW will likely still happen in time which may need an A350 plus an A350 ex SYD.


I honestly don't think QF will want to run the A350-1000s from anywhere other than SYD and MEL. The A350-1000s will have First, and there's very little First demand to any places in Australia other than Melbourne and Sydney. Plus, I doubt QF would want to build any more dedicated First lounges.

Honestly not too sure about MEL-DFW. Its only a tiny bit shorter than PER-LHR but with far more ocean, as well as the Pacific winds to deal with. SYD-DFW is a no-brainer however, and they may also do BNE-DFW in the future.


You may be right about them keeping to SYD/MEL, there are a few places where BNE/PER could also see service to the same destinations, mainly LHR and running a single type to a destination can reduce overall costs. With LHR you might see

SYD-LHR
MEL-LHR
BNE-PER-LHR
SYD-SIN-LHR

Using 1 type of aircraft ie A351 you could probably do those 4 services with 10 aircraft while a 789 could do PER-LHR and SIN-LHR you could end up needing closer to 12 aircraft all up. Of course it depends on yields and also overall fleet mix, PER-LHR is was currently tied in with a MEL-LAX/SFO service and only used 4 aircraft for a LHR-PER-MEL-LAX/SFO vv.

What’s the problem with MEL-DFW in future other than maybe the 789 can’t quite do it right now on the return DFW-MEL? You are right BNE-DFW is possible and if BNE-ORD does start eventually it may move to SYD once longer range aircraft arrive, I could see BNE-ORD replaced by BNE-DFW and ORD moved to SYD with a larger A351.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:37 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Presumably many of those A321XLRs the Qantas Group has on order will be used for smaller/even less premium Asian destinations, too (Jakarta, Bali, Manila, Bangkok perhaps, maybe Taipei).

I hope this A321s will be used to increase the frequency of SYD-CGK and/or open MEL-CGK. MEL-DPS can also be upgraded from 738.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:47 am

afterburner wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Presumably many of those A321XLRs the Qantas Group has on order will be used for smaller/even less premium Asian destinations, too (Jakarta, Bali, Manila, Bangkok perhaps, maybe Taipei).

I hope this A321s will be used to increase the frequency of SYD-CGK and/or open MEL-CGK. MEL-DPS can also be upgraded from 738.


Presumably may be right, I didn’t think QF had announced mainline were getting any? At least yet.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:05 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

Presumably may be right, I didn’t think QF had announced mainline were getting any? At least yet.


IIRC Joyce did say that some of the A321XLRs were "earmarked" for Qantas Mainline, but that's all we know. Most likely is that the orders will be split between QF and Jetstar.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:06 am

tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Literally every other carrier could match it, if there was an actual business case for it. Those aren‘t magical Qantas-only planes. And unlike Qantas, someone like BA (for LHR) actually DOES already have A35K, which aren‘t just dreams but real planes.

I think the fact of the matter is, Sunrise was a dream that hasn‘t panned out. Never say never. It might come again someday in the future. But it won‘t be the smashing success that „no other carrier can match“.
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:47 am

Whatever business case existed, now needs to be revised to reflect the impact of a global recession. I expect this to be shelved for at least three years
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:18 am

calstanford wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Literally every other carrier could match it, if there was an actual business case for it. Those aren‘t magical Qantas-only planes. And unlike Qantas, someone like BA (for LHR) actually DOES already have A35K, which aren‘t just dreams but real planes.

I think the fact of the matter is, Sunrise was a dream that hasn‘t panned out. Never say never. It might come again someday in the future. But it won‘t be the smashing success that „no other carrier can match“.

Calstanford, are you for real? There are exactly 4 airlines who COULD fly Australia-UK non-stop QF, BA, VA & VS. No one else has or could get traffic rights. Of the three potential competitors VA & VS are not [and were not, pre COVID-19] in a financial position to do so. BA could but they have been very quite about Project Sunrise and we don't know about their business case. What I think is possible is for BA to stop flying east of SIN & code share on Australian flights.

Why are you so down on Project Sunrise? It is a core business strategy that make a LOT of sense for QF and everything was proceeding normally until COVID-19 hit so of course there will be a delay. Unless there is a massive second wave I think it reasonable that we could see the A350 order next summer, so 6 to 8 months away. Even a recession wouldn't stop it, read tealnz's comments again.

Gemuser
 
oschkosch
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:24 am

I think we should all wait at least another 6-12 months before considering opening a thread on things such as this...This thread will quickly follow the same route as others on similar topics.
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:25 am

I don't see why Sunrise wouldn't continue. Demand will eventually come back within the next few years and people will be more willing to pay for direct flights than in the past. Honestly if anything COVID made the business case stronger, albeit delayed.
 
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calstanford
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:29 am

If it makes so much sense, why have we been discussing this for years without an order? If anything Covid should make the business case MORE compelling rather than less. Always safer not to transfer at some busy airport with thousands of people. Ultra Long Haul‘s problem is fuel more than anything. And fuel prices are as low as the have been in years. And yet... No Project Sunrise.

@Gemuser, please don‘t call me out if I „am for real“. You can disagree with me, but please don‘t question my sanity. I am well aware what airlines can fly UK-AU. BA flies LHR-SYD via SIN and I‘ve never heard them even consider doing a non-stop. If there was $$ to make, BA would be on it. Ultra Long Haul is expensive.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:35 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
...

"During a Friday webcast discussing the tourism industry, Joyce was discussing his airline’s pursuit of direct, non-stop service between London and Sydney. He is quoted as saying: “I think the business case for doing it is very strong…the aircraft are not going anywhere. When we are comfortable in doing it and have the financial strength to do it, we will be doing it.” -Alan Joyce, CEO, Qantas"

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-project ... -update-2/


There has NOT been any new development on this front.
The report says that Alan Joyce said, "When we are comfortable in doing it and have the financial strength to do it, we will be doing it"

The only important word in his sentence is "When".

Qantas already done their homework and concluded that it is a profitable project and Airbus offered a solution that will work, that is the A350-1000 with increased MTOW and additional fuel tank.

It is now only about putting the money where their mouth is.
And it seems they do not have that money.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:50 am

IMO when the time is right, in several years, Qantas will put out a new RFP to Airbus and Boeing.
Unless Boeing come up with a MTOW increase for the 787 or the 777X is better than predicted, it will be Airbus..

Ruscoe
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:05 am

calstanford wrote:
If it makes so much sense, why have we been discussing this for years without an order? If anything Covid should make the business case MORE compelling rather than less. Always safer not to transfer at some busy airport with thousands of people. Ultra Long Haul‘s problem is fuel more than anything. And fuel prices are as low as the have been in years. And yet... No Project Sunrise.

@Gemuser, please don‘t call me out if I „am for real“. You can disagree with me, but please don‘t question my sanity. I am well aware what airlines can fly UK-AU. BA flies LHR-SYD via SIN and I‘ve never heard them even consider doing a non-stop. If there was $$ to make, BA would be on it. Ultra Long Haul is expensive.

I was not questioning your sanity! [never even occurred to me to do so] if I gave offence I apologise BUT I was/am questioning your knowledge of the situation.
1) As far as anybody knows the order was to be place by end March 2020 but was stymied by COVID-19.
2) Of course COVID-19 should make the business case more compelling BUT COVID-19 and its effects has obscured the future so that no business executive would consider outlaying multi Billion dollar for new aircraft just yet.
3) Project Sunrise got the go ahead from the QF board before the recent falls in oil prices. So it is fair to assume that the fuel price was incorporated in the business case.
4)If as you say you are "well aware what airlines can fly UK-AU" why did you say in your previous post "Literally every other carrier could match it, if there was an actual business case for it". They can't because they don't have traffic rights. As well as the number of airlines I think it is an unwarranted assumption that you seem to me to be making that what makes a good business case for one airline would also make a good case for the other three. BA does not have its total profit [internationally] threatened by all the airlines that are based between AU and the UK, QF is, IMHO QF & BA would have VERY different business case for this route.

Gemuser
 
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:15 am

Ruscoe wrote:
IMO when the time is right, in several years, Qantas will put out a new RFP to Airbus and Boeing.
Unless Boeing come up with a MTOW increase for the 787 or the 777X is better than predicted, it will be Airbus..

Ruscoe


I can't see how it helps Boeing.. The later the delivery date the closer we get to an A350NEO, which will put a nail in the 777X. The 777X needed to win this round.. A 787HGW is possible but in 4 Classes would be on the small side for the PS. Probably barely 200 passengers if that.
 
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calstanford
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:16 am

My bad. I meant ‚every other carrier‘ with UK-AU fourth freedom rights. I see the misunderstanding then created on my part. Apologies gemuser. We‘re all good!
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:50 am

I can see the project being pushed back a while but demand will be there, perhaps just in time for the opening of the new Western Sydney airport, SWZ. with no curfew to worry about. :stirthepot:
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moa999
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:00 am

A lot has changed.
Global demand has changed
Ability to get financing has changed
Fuel price has changed

In QFs operations Australia's domestic demand will recover more quickly. Covid is almost eradicated within Australia and NZ. International will take more time.

Now might be an opportune time to bring forward the 737 replacement program, that was to be the next decision point, as QF did after 911 and Ansetts collapse.

Maybe even pickup some deeply discounted 2nd hand or refused delivery 350s if the 380 is going to be too large an aircraft. Wait for a 350neo to do Sunrise with less compromises.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:08 am

Ruscoe wrote:
IMO when the time is right, in several years, Qantas will put out a new RFP to Airbus and Boeing.
Unless Boeing come up with a MTOW increase for the 787 or the 777X is better than predicted, it will be Airbus..
...


Are you saying that the whole evaluation work done in 2018-2019 was completely useless?

Are you suggesting Qantas would run the evaluation all over again?
 
strfyr51
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:18 am

Antarius wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Would the B789s that currently do ULH then be re-configured for shorter-haul operations to replace the A330 fleet?


I doubt it. QF is happy with their 789s. Also the a35K is large and may be excessive for some routes, while being better suited for high volume and yield routes.

No reason they can't have 2 fleet types that complement each other.

Not all their routes will be ULH. and Qantas can use the 789 just like United uses their 788's and 789's from the western USA to SYD. and tp Asia. If they're not happy with them? Them they did lousy route planning and fleet planning .. Hell! I'll bet they bought the Rolls Engines too.
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:19 am

readytotaxi wrote:
I can see the project being pushed back a while but demand will be there, perhaps just in time for the opening of the new Western Sydney airport, SWZ. with no curfew to worry about. :stirthepot:


These flights will target a very different crowd to SWZ's market. Would BA operate their ultra-premium, flagship services from LGW or STN?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:22 am

VV wrote:
Are you saying that the whole evaluation work done in 2018-2019 was completely useless?

Are you suggesting Qantas would run the evaluation all over again?

Yes and yes.

Fuel prices has QUARTERED! No evaluation process would have taken that into account.

I even doubt if Airbus will make the A350-1000ULR. They have better things to spend that money on like keeping out of bankruptcy.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:32 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Fuel prices has QUARTERED! No evaluation process would have taken that into account.
.


HAD.
WTI Crude averaged US$55-60/bbl over 2019.
Yes it went down to US$15 (indeed negative for the end month) but as of Friday it's back to US$39 and climbing fairly quickly.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:39 am

moa999 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Fuel prices has QUARTERED! No evaluation process would have taken that into account.
.


HAD.
WTI Crude averaged US$55-60/bbl over 2019.
Yes it went down to US$15 (indeed negative for the end month) but as of Friday it's back to US$39 and climbing fairly quickly.


Exactly. Making or changing a decision based on an exceptional low would be very foolish. I don't think QF are foolish.
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Vicenza
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:48 am

moa999 wrote:
A lot has changed.
Global demand has changed
Ability to get financing has changed
Fuel price has changed
.


You make it sound like everything has permanently changed, and which is certainly not the case. In particular, I'm somewhat curious how you seem to definitively know that QF's ability to obtain financing has changed, or are you just guessing?
 
Noshow
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:50 am

I'd say this is clearly not the right moment to start ultra long haul flights. They might be workable in high demand environments with people willing to pay extra for the comfort. This time we are back to lower cost and higher efficiency concepts. Nobody can afford to buy specific ULR-aircraft for some weakening niche market these days.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:09 pm

Project sunrise will go ahead because demand will eventually come back. We won’t stay like this forever. More so non-stop is even more in demand because people want to reduce their risk of catching anything by getting on multiple planes, however, by the time PS starts that should be irrelevant.

The A350-1000 will probably still be the plane they choose. Even if the 777X comes out and beats expectation they can order it for something else. But they’ve publicly endorsed the 1000 for PS to act in good faith I expect them to close that deal. I mean Airbus has a media shot of their livery on the aircraft. So they’ve gone far.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:17 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
VV wrote:
Are you saying that the whole evaluation work done in 2018-2019 was completely useless?

Are you suggesting Qantas would run the evaluation all over again?

Yes and yes.

Fuel prices has QUARTERED! No evaluation process would have taken that into account.



Are you saying that fuel prices will remain at this level in 2023 and beyond?

RJMAZ wrote:
I even doubt if Airbus will make the A350-1000ULR. They have better things to spend that money on like keeping out of bankruptcy.


Wouldn't the A3501--ULR development be already taken into account in the deal with Qantas. It would be damn stupid to offer something that is not profitable to Qantas.

So suddenly some of you have doubt about Airbus willingness to develop the solution for the Project Sunrise. That's a little bit surprising because a lot of people in the previous thread said it is easy and cheap to do.
 
Fuling
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:25 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
VV wrote:
Are you saying that the whole evaluation work done in 2018-2019 was completely useless?

Are you suggesting Qantas would run the evaluation all over again?

Yes and yes.

Fuel prices has QUARTERED! No evaluation process would have taken that into account.

I even doubt if Airbus will make the A350-1000ULR. They have better things to spend that money on like keeping out of bankruptcy.


Honestly how hard do you think it would be for QF to recalculate their data with altered fuel prices? They'd simply need to input the new fuel prices and hit re-run to bring up the new cost performances.
 
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par13del
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:25 pm

So when would the QF modified A350 be ready, when will the UK want a tourist bridge to Australia to accommodate their passion for holidays?
If tourist bridge becomes another new normal, QF may try to follow BA lead and use the pandemic to get the pilot contracts for this project finalized, based on the number of years this has been talked about, fuel and a/c may not have been the limiting factor.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:28 pm

Once again people are starting to go around and around in circles about nothing.

There has been no indication Qantas will be revisiting the RFP. The short-term reduction in fuel price does not have an effect. Someone else said "now is a bad time to be starting ultra-long haul" - of course now is, but these flights are planned for 2023. Others then start going on about a A350neo as though that is even on the cards at this point. Putting an entirely new engine on an aircraft is a relatively new phenomenon, and it's not given that every single aircraft will get one, far from it. Someone even chimed in about the Qantas 737 replacement which has nothing to do with Project Sunrise.

There is literally nothing to discuss as literally nothing has changed. The choice is A350-1000 with a modification for Qantas, there has been no change to the delivery schedule, nothing. The only thing that changed, a few months ago, specifically in relation to Project Sunrise, is that Qantas have decided to order further into the future than originally envisaged. Until there is more to discuss, let's keep away from random speculation from whatever pops into your head...
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MIflyer12
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:40 pm

calstanford wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Joyce's comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Sunrise is at the heart of his strategy for Qantas long-haul operations – and not just for ULH. Restore competitiveness on Australia-Europe and Americas by offering non-stop service no other carrier can match. Earn a premium on those routes that other carriers can't access. Use the same airframe and configuration (four-class A350-1000) on a bunch of trunk routes to Asia, gain the efficiencies of a fleet of 20+ for premium long-haul and ULH.


Literally every other carrier could match it, if there was an actual business case for it. Those aren‘t magical Qantas-only planes. And unlike Qantas, someone like BA (for LHR) actually DOES already have A35K, which aren‘t just dreams but real planes.

I think the fact of the matter is, Sunrise was a dream that hasn‘t panned out. Never say never. It might come again someday in the future. But it won‘t be the smashing success that „no other carrier can match“.


If point of sale Is heavily Australia, not UK/continental Europe or wherever they think they want to start these new services, Qantas probably has an advantage. That's speculation on my part. If anybody has data, please share.

It is odd that Joyce's remarks - clearly he's saying it's dead for now - yield another thread on the presumption this is active (if not imminent). Check back in three years or so. Even by typical standards of corporate communications this is vague: When we are comfortable in doing it and have the financial strength to do it, we will be doing it. It is doubly conditioned.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:43 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Once again people are starting to go around and around in circles about nothing.
....



Because there is not much to say.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:49 pm

VV wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Once again people are starting to go around and around in circles about nothing.
....



Because there is not much to say.
which is why I requested the Mods to lock this thread, but it seems they think otherwise....

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Ruscoe
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:00 pm

VV wrote:
Ruscoe wrote:
IMO when the time is right, in several years, Qantas will put out a new RFP to Airbus and Boeing.
Unless Boeing come up with a MTOW increase for the 787 or the 777X is better than predicted, it will be Airbus..
...


Are you saying that the whole evaluation work done in 2018-2019 was completely useless?

Are you suggesting Qantas would run the evaluation all over again?


Are you saying that the whole evaluation work done in 2018-2019 was completely useless?
No, but the market is likely to be different in a couple of years, and a re-evaluation to confirm the 350 is the right choice will need to be made.


Are you suggesting Qantas would run the evaluation all over again?
Yes if one of the manufacturers has something new, or the market is different.

Ruscoe
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:05 pm

VV wrote:
Are you saying that fuel prices will remain at this level in 2023 and beyond?

100% it will. Governments are broke. They are overproducing oil to get any money they can. Oil usage was expected to grow 5% per year for the next decade. We've just halved our usage so it might take 10 years to reach 2019 levels.


VV wrote:
Wouldn't the A3501--ULR development be already taken into account in the deal with Qantas. It would be damn stupid to offer something that is not profitable to Qantas.

Airbus would be paying for the development. So there is little cost to Qantas. Airbus would know exactly what needed to be done to modify the A350-1000 to create a ULR. This does not cost them money as it is a paper plane.

Doing the actual engineering work and certifying it costs money. None of this work would be complete and most likely it hasn't even started. The development cost of the ULR would mean Airbus would make no profit on a small 10 aircraft order for Qantas.

Qantas might be willing to pay a slight 10% premium over a normal A350-1000 but this has no chance of covering the development cost. Airbus would have been paying for the development simply for vanity and the prestige. The company can no longer afford to waste money on vanity or prestige.

Fuling wrote:
Honestly how hard do you think it would be for QF to recalculate their data with altered fuel prices? They'd simply need to input the new fuel prices and hit re-run to bring up the new cost performances.

And they would get an entirely different aircraft as the best option.
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise developments

Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:22 pm

Upon reviewing the previous thread on this subject, no new information has come to light therefore this thread will be locked until such time new information comes to hand.
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