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Dieuwer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:14 pm

airbazar wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Late evening departures seem like toast. MIA is a ghost town after 8PM. I agree it’s going to take several more months for business travel to recover. Also the suits & bean counters are going to be shoving virtual down our throats for a while. Until it proves to be the disaster it will become.

A couple of months? The liability of making employees risk getting sick is too great for companies to allow anything other than the most essential of business travel. Especially if it requires gatherings of people. As long as we're officially in a Pandemic no insurance will cover that.
It should go without saying that airlines have better figure out how to make money without the passengers at the front of the plane, for quite some time.


Airlines get free money from the FEDs. No need to "make money without passengers at the front of the plane".
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:45 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Late evening departures seem like toast. MIA is a ghost town after 8PM. I agree it’s going to take several more months for business travel to recover. Also the suits & bean counters are going to be shoving virtual down our throats for a while. Until it proves to be the disaster it will become.

A couple of months? The liability of making employees risk getting sick is too great for companies to allow anything other than the most essential of business travel. Especially if it requires gatherings of people. As long as we're officially in a Pandemic no insurance will cover that.
It should go without saying that airlines have better figure out how to make money without the passengers at the front of the plane, for quite some time.


Airlines get free money from the FEDs. No need to "make money without passengers at the front of the plane".


Exactly I said, business travel isn't coming back anytime soon. Airlines are getting paxs by offering cheap fares. I sit at gates with no AC and time after time on AA Group 9 (BE fares) is 75% of the plane. And please don't give me that crap about BE fares being high. The other day MIA/DFW BE was $51 r/t ($51 dollars!) while Main Cabin was $445. Very, very few leisure travelers are going to choose the $445 fare over the more restrictive $51 fare. These fares are in line with the ULCCs.

And unlike the ULCCs the legacies are not yet there with fees although I have a feeling the US3 will soon have every fee in place that Spirit/Frontier/Allegiant does. They will have no choice. Not having International, particularly premium International and lack of business travelers is going to be devastating for the US3. The US3 might have International flights back on schedule but I don't see much of it sticking.

As far as the government handouts that's not going to continue forever. At some point there's going to be capacity cuts, firing of crew, and permanent parking of planes. No airline even Spirit is going to make money flying BWI/BOS 5-6x a day. I also predict that leisure travel is going to fall off the cliff after summer. All of this extra capacity is going to be gone.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:48 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Late evening departures seem like toast. MIA is a ghost town after 8PM.


Well that will happen with little LATAM flying, other than LATAM departures, most flights leave MIA before 8PM
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:50 pm

Another big ramp up in bookings week over week, still waiting on the corporate v. leisure split to be posted.

Expect to see more capacity added in for LAX if these booking trends hold
Image

Image
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flyby519
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:28 pm

This seems like really great news for AA to see DFW and MIA so strong
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:54 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Another big ramp up in bookings week over week, still waiting on the corporate v. leisure split to be posted.

Expect to see more capacity added in for LAX if these booking trends hold
Image

Image


Corporate still down 90.3% for the week ending June 14, up from down 91.9% the week prior
https://www.eturbonews.com/574186/us-tr ... d-in-2019/

Looking at Kayak flight search trends, here are the top 10 airports in terms of recovery:
Image
Southeast markets outside of Top 10:
11. CHS -29%
12. PBI -32%
13. CLT -32%
16. FLL -34%
18. ATL -37%
19. IAH -37%

Consumers in China have increased searches for international flights, now down 64% from a year ago versus the trough of an 87% decline in late April. Their top destinations are San Francisco, Vancouver and Copenhagen. Searches for flights from China to Boston and Washington, D.C., have surpassed last year, now up 81% and 61%, respectively.

Spain and Italy, which have reopened their economies, are also seeing a steady increase of flight search interest.
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:03 pm

flyby519 wrote:
This seems like really great news for AA to see DFW and MIA so strong


Looks like they made the right move on July capacity, looks like DL noticed and is implementing a bigger schedule for July
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CRJ5000
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:36 pm

Looks like the next stimulus could include a $4,000 tax credit for Americans traveling domestically in the near future. I think it, or a version of something like it is likely to pass.
This would benefit airlines quite a bit and do a very good job of stimulating travel to vacation destinations. Due to the domestic requirements, it would probably benefit the small-mid sized carriers somewhat more than the legacy airlines.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... e-it-does/
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:37 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Looks like the next stimulus could include a $4,000 tax credit for Americans traveling domestically in the near future. I think it, or a version of something like it is likely to pass.
This would benefit airlines quite a bit and do a very good job of stimulating travel to vacation destinations. Due to the domestic requirements, it would probably benefit the small-mid sized carriers somewhat more than the legacy airlines.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... e-it-does/

Holy shit that will sell out every airline for the rest of the year.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:38 pm

FL is seeing higher numbers again & the Governor is being put under pressure to start shutting down again. With the bars & clubs closed in Broward & Miami Dade and lousy weather I have no idea of what is attracting people to So. FL. You aren’t even allowed to sit on the beach.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:43 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Holy shit that will sell out every airline for the rest of the year.


It would certainly do a good job and be a great indirect stimulus to the airlines. Rental cars, hotels, restaurants, etc. are also included so the money would be split but it definitely provides quite an incentive to book a flight.

Miamiairport wrote:
FL is seeing higher numbers again & the Governor is being put under pressure to start shutting down again. With the bars & clubs closed in Broward & Miami Dade and lousy weather I have no idea of what is attracting people to So. FL. You aren’t even allowed to sit on the beach.



Beaches are open throughout the state, and that includes laying out/sitting. I was on a Dade beach this weekend and was nowhere near within 20 feet of anyone. Seemed like maybe half of the usual crowd.
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:50 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Looking at Kayak flight search trends, here are the top 10 airports in terms of recovery:

[...]

Consumers in China have increased searches for international flights, now down 64% from a year ago versus the trough of an 87% decline in late April. Their top destinations are San Francisco, Vancouver and Copenhagen. Searches for flights from China to Boston and Washington, D.C., have surpassed last year, now up 81% and 61%, respectively.

Spain and Italy, which have reopened their economies, are also seeing a steady increase of flight search interest.


Is this data bookings or searches? Do you have anything showing the correlation between searching and booking?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:11 am

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Looking at Kayak flight search trends, here are the top 10 airports in terms of recovery:

[...]

Consumers in China have increased searches for international flights, now down 64% from a year ago versus the trough of an 87% decline in late April. Their top destinations are San Francisco, Vancouver and Copenhagen. Searches for flights from China to Boston and Washington, D.C., have surpassed last year, now up 81% and 61%, respectively.

Spain and Italy, which have reopened their economies, are also seeing a steady increase of flight search interest.


Is this data bookings or searches? Do you have anything showing the correlation between searching and booking?


The piece you are quoting is from Kayak's search data specifically, although nearly all the other data points posted in this thread have been related to actual bookings. The Kayak data is good since it gives a look at a multitude of different airports instead of just 10

I'd say there is definitely a correlation between searches & bookings, here is an example from earlier up thread:

Image

Miamiairport wrote:
FL is seeing higher numbers again & the Governor is being put under pressure to start shutting down again. With the bars & clubs closed in Broward & Miami Dade and lousy weather I have no idea of what is attracting people to So. FL. You aren’t even allowed to sit on the beach.


I was in Clearwater last week & the beaches were crowded, people have been inside for months & want to get out

Lots of people aren't traveling abroad this summer & Florida is an easy choice as a back up option
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:02 pm

No surprise, but IATA says consumer confidence is again declining in air travel.

Only 45% of those polled in late May and early June said they’d be prepared to board a plane within one or two months of restrictions being lifted, down from 60% in April, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday.
“If anything, consumers have actually got rather more cautious and we have a majority saying now that they would wait more than six months before traveling,” IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said in a press briefing. “The survey is telling us that passengers are rather cautious.”


Confidence in Travel Slides With Less Than Half Willing to Fly
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-to-fly
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santi319
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:18 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
FL is seeing higher numbers again & the Governor is being put under pressure to start shutting down again. With the bars & clubs closed in Broward & Miami Dade and lousy weather I have no idea of what is attracting people to So. FL. You aren’t even allowed to sit on the beach.



The beaches are open and the bars are open as long as they serve food. Again people are not going to stay home lockdown for 6 months. Its impossible and unhealthy. As clusters appear actions will be taken. Specially with the new release of several drugs that help recovery, pushing Covid severity further down.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:40 pm

LAXintl wrote:
No surprise, but IATA says consumer confidence is again declining in air travel.

Only 45% of those polled in late May and early June said they’d be prepared to board a plane within one or two months of restrictions being lifted, down from 60% in April, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday.
“If anything, consumers have actually got rather more cautious and we have a majority saying now that they would wait more than six months before traveling,” IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said in a press briefing. “The survey is telling us that passengers are rather cautious.”


Confidence in Travel Slides With Less Than Half Willing to Fly
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-to-fly


Not sure how much stock I'd put in survey results right now, I've seen numerous different surveys on this, all say different things.

Also keep in mind that is a survey of ALL travelers as well, not just US. I have not seen any data that points to US bookings & travel contracting from May/Early June levels, in fact quite the opposite

Image
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Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:46 pm

Well for the airlines they need business travelers and business travel is surely lacking. Prior to COVID as an AA PP my upgrade success rate was about 30%, to the point I began to upfare to F. Since COVID it's been 100%, usually at the T-72 mark.

Moreover, I see business travel being depressed until a. A vaccine becomes widely available b. This silliness with the masks and social distancing dies a natural death (not going to happen politically), c. Business in mass decides to start travel again. When any of these will happen is anyone's guess.
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:52 pm

COVID19 hospitalization continues to rise in many states as a sign of the second wave taking shape.

Texas coronavirus hospitalizations surge 84% since Memorial Day

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/texas-c ... e-day.html

Ignoring the problem won't make it go away.
I fly your boxes
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:36 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
The piece you are quoting is from Kayak's search data specifically, although nearly all the other data points posted in this thread have been related to actual bookings. The Kayak data is good since it gives a look at a multitude of different airports instead of just 10


That’s what I thought. I just wanted to clarify since I know you were posting actual data as well. Good info. Cheers.
 
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spinotter
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:42 pm

UPlog wrote:
COVID19 hospitalization continues to rise in many states as a sign of the second wave taking shape.

Texas coronavirus hospitalizations surge 84% since Memorial Day

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/texas-c ... e-day.html

Ignoring the problem won't make it go away.


Would you call the surge in TX, AZ, etc. that is taking place now a second wave? To me it seems more accurate to call it an upsurge in the first wave, which has never disappeared but was beginning to diminish. Academic question, perhaps, but earlier predictions were for the second wave to occur in the coming fall/winter flu season.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:10 pm

Hospitalizations are up, infections are up.

Image

Certainly not signs that provide any comfort let alone encourage air travel.
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Prost
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:49 pm

And someone is posting masks and social distancing are silly?
 
sldispatcher
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:29 pm

As someone who has taken care of over 300 covid positive nursing home patients in the last 3 months, I feel the need to address a couple of issues.

First, take the slide with rising covid hospitalization numbers with a grain of salt. Those are raw numbers and have to be looked at through the prism of reality. An option in the long term care setting is to send a covid positive patient into an acute care or long term acute care setting just to get them out of the building. It is a way to isolate the patient without the building having to do that. That act alone inflates the number of hospitalized patients and many of them are not even in what many of us would all a traditional hospital. Most are mildy symptomatic or no symptoms at all. It is a cycle I saw in all 14 homes that I attend. The first reaction is to send them out.

Recently, testing in long term care became much more available and very much required. We successfully stopped Covid 19 in several homes with early detection methods. But that means many many more tests will no doubt increase the number of positives (see what happens then in the above paragraph).

As an aviation enthusiast and one who has just completed two trips (one was 4 legs on the outbound and 3 on the return), I am perfectly content with the guidelines they have in place and think some (like no ice) are indeed silly. Social distancing is not as important as wearing the mask, washing hands, and common sense.

I think opening up is a sensible thing to do. In our area, the number of cases has fallen off a cliff as we open up more. That somehow did not make it on the graph because it did not fulfill the agenda of the creator of the graph.

Buy tickets. Fly. Be smart. 99% of the folks have almost nothing to worry about and the other 1% need to use common sense.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:36 pm

https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights#report

Per Sojern data, some mid-size to large US markets are showing increased July bookings yoy (indexed to January 5th 2020):

Rest of Florida (measuring demand outside of ECP, FLL, MIA, PBI, TPA, JAX, MCO, RSW) +7.0%
Billings, MT +8.20%
Bozeman, MT +9.20%
Fort Myers, FL +11.60%
Idaho Falls, ID +19.40%
Panama City, FL +178.90%

These are close to normal
Boise, ID -2.80%
Savanah, GA -6.40%
Tampa, FL -8.50%
Charleston, SC -11.90%
West Palm Beach, FL -12%
Miami/FLL, FL -14.90%
Rapid City, SD -15%
Sioux Falls, SD -17.1%
Jacksonville, FL -18.2%

*Measuring Destination traffic, not Originating traffic*

Las Vegas, I believe, has seen a massive turn around in bookings
Image

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
The piece you are quoting is from Kayak's search data specifically, although nearly all the other data points posted in this thread have been related to actual bookings. The Kayak data is good since it gives a look at a multitude of different airports instead of just 10


That’s what I thought. I just wanted to clarify since I know you were posting actual data as well. Good info. Cheers.

:checkmark:
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:41 pm

UPlog wrote:
COVID19 hospitalization continues to rise in many states as a sign of the second wave taking shape.

Texas coronavirus hospitalizations surge 84% since Memorial Day

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/texas-c ... e-day.html

Ignoring the problem won't make it go away.


Be careful when you are pointing out increases, the large majority of states are seeing large decreases in cases or are at least seeing flat levels of new cases
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tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:09 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Be careful when you are pointing out increases, the large majority of states are seeing large decreases in cases or are at least seeing flat levels of new cases


The states that are seeing spikes right now are also the states with increased bookings. At some point, this leisure driven rebound will slow down in those states since the pent up demand will be no longer pent up. But the states that have been suppressed all this time will get a larger surge since everyone still has their vacation time and want to get out.

If people in Texas, Arizona and Florida feel like COVID is a problem again, air travel bookings will come crashing down. If people in northeast and PNW feel like COVID is past at least until fall, air travel bookings will go up.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:53 am

A little a tidbit from United.
Enplanements are still down over 90%, and as you can see the flights being operated are hardly close to being full either.


> Average revenue passengers on our flights: During the last week, revenue passengers on board our aircraft ranged between 46,000 and 52,000 (we normally would carry over 550,000 passengers per day during these summer months).
> Revenue load factors: We have averaged between 48% and 53% revenue load factors over the past week. Keep in mind this revenue load factor is part of a 90% schedule reduction.
> Extra sections and up-gauged flights to avoid high load factors: Over the past several days we have added between two and 24 extra sections and up-gauged between 90 and 105 flights to avoid high load factors.
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acavpics
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:10 am

A vaccine in mid to late fall is becoming increasingly likely, according to companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Both are expecting results from Phase 3 trials around August or September. Expect rapid surges in bookings during the final weeks of summer if these vaccines are proven effective.

AstraZeneca has agreed to produce at least 400 million doses for the US if luck is on our side regarding the vaccine.
 
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janders
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:48 am

acavpics wrote:
A vaccine in mid to late fall is becoming increasingly likely, according to companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Both are expecting results from Phase 3 trials around August or September. Expect rapid surges in bookings during the final weeks of summer if these vaccines are proven effective.

AstraZeneca has agreed to produce at least 400 million doses for the US if luck is on our side regarding the vaccine.


Any vaccine will take years to produce and administer in such large quantities. (Plus figure out who pays for it)
Also its not just the US, it needs to be administered globally.

This summer if anything we’re headed for another lockdown not booking surge.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:49 am

Glad to see bookings are trending up in New Orleans. Only down 41% from 2019 last week after bottoming out at 79% down in early April. Things have reopened here including bars and some live indoor music in a limited capacity. The virus is largely under control with good contact tracing going on.

Image
courtesy of https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status ... 14/photo/3
 
Scarebus34
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:38 am

janders wrote:
acavpics wrote:
A vaccine in mid to late fall is becoming increasingly likely, according to companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Both are expecting results from Phase 3 trials around August or September. Expect rapid surges in bookings during the final weeks of summer if these vaccines are proven effective.

AstraZeneca has agreed to produce at least 400 million doses for the US if luck is on our side regarding the vaccine.


Any vaccine will take years to produce and administer in such large quantities. (Plus figure out who pays for it)
Also its not just the US, it needs to be administered globally.

This summer if anything we’re headed for another lockdown not booking surge.

Not entirely true. They’ve already started ramping up production of the potential vaccine in hopes that it works so there will be large quantities available if and when it’s approved. This is a departure from past practice as they would wait until approved before manufacturing.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:59 am

janders wrote:
acavpics wrote:
A vaccine in mid to late fall is becoming increasingly likely, according to companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Both are expecting results from Phase 3 trials around August or September. Expect rapid surges in bookings during the final weeks of summer if these vaccines are proven effective.

AstraZeneca has agreed to produce at least 400 million doses for the US if luck is on our side regarding the vaccine.


Any vaccine will take years to produce and administer in such large quantities. (Plus figure out who pays for it)
Also its not just the US, it needs to be administered globally.

This summer if anything we’re headed for another lockdown not booking surge.

No it won’t. They are already starting to make it. It’ll be distributed like the flu shot.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:22 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Be careful when you are pointing out increases, the large majority of states are seeing large decreases in cases or are at least seeing flat levels of new cases


The states that are seeing spikes right now are also the states with increased bookings. At some point, this leisure driven rebound will slow down in those states since the pent up demand will be no longer pent up. But the states that have been suppressed all this time will get a larger surge since everyone still has their vacation time and want to get out.

If people in Texas, Arizona and Florida feel like COVID is a problem again, air travel bookings will come crashing down. If people in northeast and PNW feel like COVID is past at least until fall, air travel bookings will go up.


I was more responding to the person who was saying the country was ignoring the problem.

But, air travel bookings aren't coming from Florida & Arizona, they are going to Arizona & Florida (Texas is more in the middle). The perceived risk of traveling to Florida & Arizona for many is low, as much of their time will be spent outdoors, hence the reason why bookings to these places continue despite increases in cases.
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KFTG
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:31 pm

janders wrote:
This summer if anything we’re headed for another lockdown not booking surge.

Want to bet?
 
acavpics
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:09 pm

janders wrote:

Any vaccine will take years to produce and administer in such large quantities. (Plus figure out who pays for it)
Also its not just the US, it needs to be administered globally.

This summer if anything we’re headed for another lockdown not booking surge.


“YearS”???? These are unprecedented times, in case you haven’t noticed. Therefore, unprecedented measures will be taken to counteract the circumstances. Has there ever been a time that over 100+ vaccines around the world are being studied at ONCE? .... I don’t think so.

The pessimism on these forums is astounding.

I would bet my life savings that we are not in this situation next year at this time
 
Dieuwer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:28 pm

Perhaps people think back of the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919. It took until WW-2 to find a vaccine. But as mentioned by acavpics, we are much more advanced now and 100+ potential candidates are studied right now as a viable vaccine. Personally, I hope it becomes available by December or early next year. I don't think it is gonna take "years".
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:30 pm

The purpose of the lockdown was not to stop the spreading of the virus per se but to keep the spread contained to the point it did not overwhelm the healthcare system. Other than NYC nowhere came close to that happening. Getting the virus and even having symptoms doesn't mean a death sentence or even a hospital stay if you are in good health. Every year people get the flu, they are sick in bed for a few days, recover and move on.

Unless the healthcare system becomes threatened I don't see a lockdown again. The boy cried wolf last time and it's not going to happen again. Of course there is zero talk in the MSM about how people should be taking the steps to improve their health and well being so they aren't susceptible to COVID 19 and other like issues. That would require telling people to take personal responsibility.

The tourism industry in the state of Florida is in a world of hurt, particularly area like Miami Beach and FLL. No surprise they have become very price promotional and the fares are probably dirt cheap. Again as someone that lives in FL why anyone would want to come here in the middle of summer is beyond me.
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:46 pm

acavpics wrote:
I would bet my life savings that we are not in this situation next year at this time


I say November 4. :bouncy:
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:55 pm

Silver1SWA wrote:
acavpics wrote:
I would bet my life savings that we are not in this situation next year at this time


I say November 4. :bouncy:


I first want to know how much his "life savings" are worth before joining the betting team :D
 
chicawgo
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:42 pm

acavpics wrote:
A vaccine in mid to late fall is becoming increasingly likely, according to companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Both are expecting results from Phase 3 trials around August or September. Expect rapid surges in bookings during the final weeks of summer if these vaccines are proven effective.

AstraZeneca has agreed to produce at least 400 million doses for the US if luck is on our side regarding the vaccine.


There is reason for optimism due to the scale of research but there's also reason for pessimism due to the fact that a vaccine has never been created for any coronavirus. And many have been trying for a long time. MERS, SARS, common cold. Nothing.
 
boilerla
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:08 pm

I read 2 pages and most people are discussing the virus, not the economy. Bookings are up for leisure low fare destinations in an age were prices ares already severely depressed. So people are flying because it's cheap--you can fly transcontinental for $300 R/T, in the middle of summer. There were times you can't even fly LAX-LAS for that price.

What happens when July/August comes and government assistance runs out? The $2400 will be long gone, and we have ample signs the economy is trouble:
- 16% unemployment (or 13% if you want the fudged number)
- 30% of Americans did not pay their June rent or mortgage
- Unemployment extension ends this summer
Come August you can still have 10% of the workforce unemployed easily, no government stimulus and unemployment running out. Once the summer leisure travel season ends, without corporate bookings the airlines will be in a tight spot when their subsidies also end.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:19 pm

boilerla wrote:
I read 2 pages and most people are discussing the virus, not the economy. .


Because the economy is directly impacted to what measures politicians take in response to COVID-19. You lock everyone up, you kill the economy and create Great Depression 3.0.

boilerla wrote:
What happens when July/August comes and government assistance runs out?


Chapter 11 on a Grand Scale you never ever ever have seen before. That's what will happen after July/August if there is no more assistance and/or if the lock downs continue/are reinstated.
In other words, as long as their is NO magical cure or NO working vaccine, government assistance needs to continue INDEFINITELY.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:39 pm

boilerla wrote:
I read 2 pages and most people are discussing the virus, not the economy. Bookings are up for leisure low fare destinations in an age were prices ares already severely depressed. So people are flying because it's cheap--you can fly transcontinental for $300 R/T, in the middle of summer. There were times you can't even fly LAX-LAS for that price.

What happens when July/August comes and government assistance runs out? The $2400 will be long gone, and we have ample signs the economy is trouble:
- 16% unemployment (or 13% if you want the fudged number)
- 30% of Americans did not pay their June rent or mortgage
- Unemployment extension ends this summer
Come August you can still have 10% of the workforce unemployed easily, no government stimulus and unemployment running out. Once the summer leisure travel season ends, without corporate bookings the airlines will be in a tight spot when their subsidies also end.


The unemployment data is unclear right now, we'll get a clearer picture in the July data once most of the country is opened up. Most couldn't predict May numbers, doesn't make much sense to try to estimate August unemployment.

The vast majority of job losses came from the hospitality & leisure industries, sectors where many were furloughed, but jobs will return because some leisure travel has returned. Not to mention, leisure & hospitality don't generate much corporate travel and employees in these industries are likely to travel less for leisure given the lower average wages and less discretionary income
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airhansa
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:14 pm

The public health agencies of the globe collectively lost the trust of the public with their incorrect advice on how to deal with the coronavirus outbreak. Early suggestions by the Chinese governments proved more effective at controlling the outbreak than the ones by many western health agencies. Government now needs to show that people can trust its advice before it is able to coordinate people back onto planes. If people don't know whether to trust the data and information they are receiving about the coronavirus, then they aren't going to fly. Publish data and information and ensure people trust it.
 
acavpics
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:35 am

Dieuwer wrote:
In other words, as long as their is NO magical cure or NO working vaccine, government assistance needs to continue INDEFINITELY.


Dexamethosone reduced death rates by a thrid. That is surely a good start for a cure. Let's not forget Remdesivir which educed hospitalization time for those with mild COVID.
 
acavpics
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:00 am

chicawgo wrote:
There is reason for optimism due to the scale of research but there's also reason for pessimism due to the fact that a vaccine has never been created for any coronavirus. And many have been trying for a long time. MERS, SARS, common cold. Nothing.


At least some COVID vaccines have made it to Phase 3 trials, and are looking promising.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:06 pm

There's one thing that I have a suspicion about and I won't be shocked if it is validated with data. A lot of workers on the lower end are now making in many cases more than double on unemployment what they made working. Yes they should save that extra money but they are splurging including on travel. Assuming all the extra benefits are cut off at the end of July, including additional state aid there's going to be a day of reckoning. As I said before assuming business travel doesn't come back by the fall (and I don't think it will) let's see what load factors begin to look like then.

Also, what looks promising today can turn out to be a dud tomorrow. I remember the 80s and 90s when this or that vaccine looked promising for HIV/Aids. Still no vaccine but treatments that can certainly help and of course prevention.
 
KFTG
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:40 pm

I miss the murder hornets.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:23 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
janders wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that barring a second COVID19 wave does not stunt things sooner, the summer travel period will be over in less than 3 months, so as demand climbs now, it should tapper off and then decline come late August anyhow.


I think that's partially built in already, since it is a yoy comparison, late August & September is already one of the lowest points of the year for the airlines.


A lot of what is called 'leisure' travel might more accurately be defined as essential personal travel. Family members reuniting, condolence visiting, going to a second home, snow birds migrating. Even in Hawaii taking advantage of a fractionally owned condo and observing a 14 day quarantine could happen.

and a note of appreciation to the OP, I had not realized how data intensive this thread would be.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:29 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
There's one thing that I have a suspicion about and I won't be shocked if it is validated with data. A lot of workers on the lower end are now making in many cases more than double on unemployment what they made working. Yes they should save that extra money but they are splurging including on travel. Assuming all the extra benefits are cut off at the end of July, including additional state aid there's going to be a day of reckoning. As I said before assuming business travel doesn't come back by the fall (and I don't think it will) let's see what load factors begin to look like then.

Also, what looks promising today can turn out to be a dud tomorrow. I remember the 80s and 90s when this or that vaccine looked promising for HIV/Aids. Still no vaccine but treatments that can certainly help and of course prevention.

You can’t really compare covid to HIV. The scientists are very confident on how to beat this thing. Stage 2 was good and stage 3 is going to be good. This thing will be wrapped up by Christmas.
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