Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 15
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:33 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
There's one thing that I have a suspicion about and I won't be shocked if it is validated with data. A lot of workers on the lower end are now making in many cases more than double on unemployment what they made working. Yes they should save that extra money but they are splurging including on travel. Assuming all the extra benefits are cut off at the end of July, including additional state aid there's going to be a day of reckoning. As I said before assuming business travel doesn't come back by the fall (and I don't think it will) let's see what load factors begin to look like then.


Anecdotal evidence perhaps, but I know from a few people who did just that: taking road trips using the money from the CARES Stimulus Check. No nothing paying off bills.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:20 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
There's one thing that I have a suspicion about and I won't be shocked if it is validated with data. A lot of workers on the lower end are now making in many cases more than double on unemployment what they made working. Yes they should save that extra money but they are splurging including on travel. Assuming all the extra benefits are cut off at the end of July, including additional state aid there's going to be a day of reckoning. As I said before assuming business travel doesn't come back by the fall (and I don't think it will) let's see what load factors begin to look like then.

Also, what looks promising today can turn out to be a dud tomorrow. I remember the 80s and 90s when this or that vaccine looked promising for HIV/Aids. Still no vaccine but treatments that can certainly help and of course prevention.

You can’t really compare covid to HIV. The scientists are very confident on how to beat this thing. Stage 2 was good and stage 3 is going to be good. This thing will be wrapped up by Christmas.

Ebola vaccine was developed quickly by any measure and it took 4 years. Scott Gottlieb, one of the most knowledgeable in this area, has been saying some time next year for formal FDA approval. Christmas is a pipedream.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4965
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
There's one thing that I have a suspicion about and I won't be shocked if it is validated with data. A lot of workers on the lower end are now making in many cases more than double on unemployment what they made working. Yes they should save that extra money but they are splurging including on travel. Assuming all the extra benefits are cut off at the end of July, including additional state aid there's going to be a day of reckoning. As I said before assuming business travel doesn't come back by the fall (and I don't think it will) let's see what load factors begin to look like then.

Also, what looks promising today can turn out to be a dud tomorrow. I remember the 80s and 90s when this or that vaccine looked promising for HIV/Aids. Still no vaccine but treatments that can certainly help and of course prevention.

You can’t really compare covid to HIV. The scientists are very confident on how to beat this thing. Stage 2 was good and stage 3 is going to be good. This thing will be wrapped up by Christmas.

Ebola vaccine was developed quickly by any measure and it took 4 years. Scott Gottlieb, one of the most knowledgeable in this area, has been saying some time next year for formal FDA approval. Christmas is a pipedream.

The vaccine has been in development since sars 1. It’s already in mass production and stage 3 trials. What part is a pipe dream.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:48 pm

32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
You can’t really compare covid to HIV. The scientists are very confident on how to beat this thing. Stage 2 was good and stage 3 is going to be good. This thing will be wrapped up by Christmas.

Ebola vaccine was developed quickly by any measure and it took 4 years. Scott Gottlieb, one of the most knowledgeable in this area, has been saying some time next year for formal FDA approval. Christmas is a pipedream.

The vaccine has been in development since sars 1. It’s already in mass production and stage 3 trials. What part is a pipe dream.

The part where you are not listening to the former fda chief talking about this.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4965
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:23 am

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Ebola vaccine was developed quickly by any measure and it took 4 years. Scott Gottlieb, one of the most knowledgeable in this area, has been saying some time next year for formal FDA approval. Christmas is a pipedream.

The vaccine has been in development since sars 1. It’s already in mass production and stage 3 trials. What part is a pipe dream.

The part where you are not listening to the former fda chief talking about this.

So Oxford and all the other pharmaceutical companies don’t know what they are talking about?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:51 am

32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The vaccine has been in development since sars 1. It’s already in mass production and stage 3 trials. What part is a pipe dream.

The part where you are not listening to the former fda chief talking about this.

So Oxford and all the other pharmaceutical companies don’t know what they are talking about?


The guy that headed the agency from 2017 to 2019 that approves vaccines would know more than the companies that's developing vaccines and announcing news to raise their share prices.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:14 pm

Something to keep in mind for July numbers is there was already sizable amount of booked in pax for summer, up until around March 14. For about a week or two in March, airlines released tons of low fares & were able to massively increase bookings for a short period of time.

This is Gary Kelly talking about it in very early May: "I think May will be better than April was, and I don't think June will be a good month, but hopefully it will be a bit better than May. And then we're looking forward to July and August, and we'll just have to see. There are bookings in place."

*US Domestic Numbers*
Image

With regards to business travel, airlines likely don't have much insight into business travel return, given the growth in bookings is all happening in the <30 days sector:

Image

Only real insights into corporate travel return is from the GBTA, and their members (outside of airlines speaking to corporate travel managers directly):
Image

Only a small % of US companies aren't planning to resume in the near future.
My company personally is among the top 50 in corporate travel spend, and we began client related travel last week, although internal travel is still restricted.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
janders wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that barring a second COVID19 wave does not stunt things sooner, the summer travel period will be over in less than 3 months, so as demand climbs now, it should tapper off and then decline come late August anyhow.


I think that's partially built in already, since it is a yoy comparison, late August & September is already one of the lowest points of the year for the airlines.


A lot of what is called 'leisure' travel might more accurately be defined as essential personal travel. Family members reuniting, condolence visiting, going to a second home, snow birds migrating. Even in Hawaii taking advantage of a fractionally owned condo and observing a 14 day quarantine could happen.

and a note of appreciation to the OP, I had not realized how data intensive this thread would be.


Agreed, thanks for the note
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4965
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The part where you are not listening to the former fda chief talking about this.

So Oxford and all the other pharmaceutical companies don’t know what they are talking about?


The guy that headed the agency from 2017 to 2019 that approves vaccines would know more than the companies that's developing vaccines and announcing news to raise their share prices.

The share price of Oxford?
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14476
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:18 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Only a small % of US companies aren't planning to resume in the near future.
My company personally is among the top 50 in corporate travel spend, and we began client related travel last week, although internal travel is still restricted.


It’s important to remember that travel being permitted is a lot different from travel being back to normal. The fact that some travel is safe doesn’t change the fact that lots of companies are hurting right now, and there are trips that probably still aren’t smart. Many of our clients have told us that they don’t want us going on trips that endanger either their people or us.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
majano
Posts: 272
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:26 pm

32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
So Oxford and all the other pharmaceutical companies don’t know what they are talking about?


The guy that headed the agency from 2017 to 2019 that approves vaccines would know more than the companies that's developing vaccines and announcing news to raise their share prices.

The share price of Oxford?

I am sure your protagonist will come out to say AstraZeneca's share price.... Anyway there's always an upside and downside risk to any unknown future outcome. I don't agree with the view that people are trying to drive share prices up by providing misleading statements, but it could be true that the promising developments end up being unsuccessful.
 
devron
Posts: 365
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2011 11:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:44 pm

Question does anyone know where to find data for Europe? I can see flight number actually daily in the news but not bookings.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:45 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Only a small % of US companies aren't planning to resume in the near future.
My company personally is among the top 50 in corporate travel spend, and we began client related travel last week, although internal travel is still restricted.


It’s important to remember that travel being permitted is a lot different from travel being back to normal. The fact that some travel is safe doesn’t change the fact that lots of companies are hurting right now, and there are trips that probably still aren’t smart. Many of our clients have told us that they don’t want us going on trips that endanger either their people or us.


Completely agree, obviously a long way to go.

I'm still encouraged by what I'm hearing and seeing at this point though, no one thought the recovery would be where it is right now, a couple months ago.

devron wrote:
Question does anyone know where to find data for Europe? I can see flight number actually daily in the news but not bookings.


All these should give you European booking/search data:

https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights-eu#report
https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends
*Italy only* https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... irus-data/
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker-emea/
https://www.everymundo.com/flight-demand-tracker/

Eurocontrol has a good dashboard, if you haven't seen it already: https://www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/D ... tates.html

Each website compiles from a slightly different subset of airlines or travel agencies, so each number or % will be slightly different.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:25 pm

"Neither carrier (WN or G4) reported a demand impact from rising coronavirus cases, despite their exposure to Florida," according to BofA
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rating ... recovering

Despite this claim, I did see some weakness in bookings for the week ending June 21st:

While Corporate bookings reached their highest point since mid-March(still down 89%), leisure bookings shrunk yoy compared to the previous week.
Likely a few reasons for this:
1. Covid case increases may be decreasing bookings
2. Fewer sales and airline announcements last week
3. Potential booking impact due to Father's Day weekend

Will need to see next weeks numbers to see if this trend actually continues
Image
Image

This is for the week ending June 14
Image
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:38 am

One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.
 
LOT767301ER
Posts: 123
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:14 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:29 am

tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.


The interesting part is that the average age of infection in all 3 of these states is now in the 30s when it was in the 60s. Im not sold that that will actually equate to more deaths though. The NE states made a giant mistake in shoving COVID positive seniors when they were discharged from the hospital back into LTCs.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5275
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:44 pm

Image
Image
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
superjeff
Posts: 1372
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:14 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.


The problem is we just don't know. Texas' cases are increased because, apparently, Harris County (Houston) withheld information and dumped a bunch of cases which had been there a couple of months ago into the latest figures. Also, the death percentages are way down, and the actual number of tests is up by an exponential amount. I think we will need to give it a couple of more weeks to see if there is anything to the new figures. They are subject to interpretation at best, and could be easily proven way off at worst.
 
IAHWorldflyer
Posts: 874
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:26 pm

I happen to live in Harris County ( Houston), and while there was a positive case dump recently, there is a rising community spread that is rather alarming. A friend in the restaurant industry maintains an informal list of local bars and restaurants that had re-opened but have now shut down again due to employees testing positive. There are over 40 on the list today. And that's just those he knows about through connections. We in Texas have spent the last 2-3 weeks acting like there was nothing much to worry about. It might catch up to us.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:38 pm

Well do confirmed cases mean pressure for hospital beds or even death? The "experts" can't seem to give us a straight answer as to what someone's risk is. We all know we might catch the flu in winter time. Some people get a shot. Most do not. Some become very sick for a few days but don't got to a hospital. Some particularly older people or those with severe health issues even die. In other words most of us understand the risk to us and we act accordingly.

I get the sense people are tired of the fear mongering. I'm 60 years old and my sphere of people tends to be 50 and older. Yet I do not know of one person with COVID or anyone that knows someone with COVID. After awhile people feel like they are being preached to by chicken little.

Ultimately I'm in very good health and shape for my age and I'm more likely to die of an automobile accident, particularly in the crazy roads of Miami. Yet I've not thought about walking everywhere,
 
User avatar
janders
Moderator
Posts: 1114
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:39 pm

Can't ignore that hospitalizations continue to rise and many locations are sadly setting daily records

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:46 pm

janders wrote:
Can't ignore that hospitalizations continue to rise and many locations are sadly setting daily records

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html


Don't you love the Tabloid CNBC Title: U.S. 7-day average of coronavirus cases surges 30% from week ago!!!!"
Never mind them hand-picking states with the largest increases while ignoring plenty states with dropping numbers....
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1708
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:53 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
janders wrote:
Can't ignore that hospitalizations continue to rise and many locations are sadly setting daily records

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html


Don't you love the Tabloid CNBC Title: U.S. 7-day average of coronavirus cases surges 30% from week ago!!!!"
Never mind them hand-picking states with the largest increases while ignoring plenty states with dropping numbers....

What are you talking about? The headline is accurate.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24617
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:46 pm

Some folks can bury their heads in the sand and try to ignore this away, but the reality is that in too many locations the numbers of infections and hospitalizations have spiked and likely soon deaths will sadly rise also.

Even Republican governor Abbot now realizes things have take turn for the worse in Texas and there could be need to take a few steps back.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Monday that “additional measures are going to be necessary” if these metrics continue to climb at current rates into July.

“The way hospitalizations are spiking, the way that daily new cases are spiking — surely the public can understand that if those spikes continue, additional measures are going to be necessary to make sure we maintain the health and safety of the people of the state of Texas,” Abbott said in response to whether he would consider rolling back some of the state’s reopening guidelines.

“All the way through the early part of May, Texas was moving in a very productive position,” Abbott said. “And then around the time of Memorial Day there was an increase, and that increase has maintained for several weeks now, necessitating steps be taken.”
Last edited by LAXintl on Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4965
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:48 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Some folks can bury their heads in the sand and try to ignore this away, but the reality is that in too many locations infections, hospitalizations, and likely soon deaths will rise.

Even Republican governor Abbot now realizes things have take turn for the worse and need to take steps back.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Monday that “additional measures are going to be necessary” if these metrics continue to climb at current rates into July.

“The way hospitalizations are spiking, the way that daily new cases are spiking — surely the public can understand that if those spikes continue, additional measures are going to be necessary to make sure we maintain the health and safety of the people of the state of Texas,” Abbott said in response to whether he would consider rolling back some of the state’s reopening guidelines.

“All the way through the early part of May, Texas was moving in a very productive position,” Abbott said. “And then around the time of Memorial Day there was an increase, and that increase has maintained for several weeks now, necessitating steps be taken.”

Texas and Florida aren’t going to lock down.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:01 pm

32andBelow wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Some folks can bury their heads in the sand and try to ignore this away, but the reality is that in too many locations infections, hospitalizations, and likely soon deaths will rise.

Even Republican governor Abbot now realizes things have take turn for the worse and need to take steps back.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Monday that “additional measures are going to be necessary” if these metrics continue to climb at current rates into July.

“The way hospitalizations are spiking, the way that daily new cases are spiking — surely the public can understand that if those spikes continue, additional measures are going to be necessary to make sure we maintain the health and safety of the people of the state of Texas,” Abbott said in response to whether he would consider rolling back some of the state’s reopening guidelines.

“All the way through the early part of May, Texas was moving in a very productive position,” Abbott said. “And then around the time of Memorial Day there was an increase, and that increase has maintained for several weeks now, necessitating steps be taken.”

Texas and Florida aren’t going to lock down.


New York didn't think it'd need to lock down in late February and guess what happened 2 weeks later. All the companies started putting in work from home protocols in late February and got accelerated put to use a week later. New York didn't shut down because of Cuomo. It shut down because people didn't want to go outside.

If Texas gets to 20k new cases a day in 2 weeks, it will have to lock down. The later you push stuff back like mandatory masking, no more mass gathering, the worse the outbreak will be. Remember, mitigation efforts don't show up in results until several weeks later and there is no real mitigation going on in Texas and Florida right now. If all the bars and restaurants close down because employees got sick, at least all the major cities in Texas will lock down.

Again, booking trend could look very different 2 weeks from now. I'd be surprised if Northeastern state don't see a bump and Florida/Texas don't see a fall.

All LCCs have staked their strategy around Florida and Las Vegas. That could be a giant disaster. Kirby and UA could end up looking like the biggest geniuses around.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:37 pm

Any explanation why Hawaii cases are rising DESPITE the massive lock down? Same story with California. They have a lock down and still cases are rising.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 793
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:50 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
janders wrote:
Can't ignore that hospitalizations continue to rise and many locations are sadly setting daily records

Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/us-7-da ... k-ago.html


Don't you love the Tabloid CNBC Title: U.S. 7-day average of coronavirus cases surges 30% from week ago!!!!"
Never mind them hand-picking states with the largest increases while ignoring plenty states with dropping numbers....


If you look at the Worldometer site, however, you will see that the number of new cases in the USA was 35,000 yesterday, and the number of deaths in the USA, which had been trending down, has started to rise again. No fake news there, unfortunately. (Sorry that I haven't learned how to insert a URL yet on my phone, but I will try.)

<url>https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/</url>
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:52 pm

Then perhaps it is time for New England to secede so at least The Republic of New England can claim they have lower and lower cases :D
 
Silver1SWA
Posts: 4681
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:00 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Any explanation why Hawaii cases are rising DESPITE the massive lock down? Same story with California. They have a lock down and still cases are rising.


Hawaii’s recent spike has been linked to an outbreak at a nursing home and a cluster of cases linked to a church gathering at a home which includes at least 10 cases in one family alone. The rise is believed to be community spread, not tourism related. The visitor quarantine is still in effect.

Hawaii began lifting their stay at home orders Memorial Day weekend and a lot of people let their guard down, gathering with friends and family at homes and beaches. The interisland quarantine was lifted a week ago so fingers crossed we don’t see spikes on neighbor islands (current spike is mostly Oahu).

Hawaii’s numbers are relatively very low compared to most states so just takes a couple of outbreak clusters to really throw the stats.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:04 am

Silver1SWA wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Any explanation why Hawaii cases are rising DESPITE the massive lock down? Same story with California. They have a lock down and still cases are rising.


Hawaii’s recent spike has been linked to an outbreak at a nursing home and a cluster of cases linked to a church gathering at a home which includes at least 10 cases in one family alone. The rise is believed to be community spread, not tourism related. The visitor quarantine is still in effect.

Hawaii began lifting their stay at home orders Memorial Day weekend and a lot of people let their guard down, gathering with friends and family at homes and beaches. The interisland quarantine was lifted a week ago so fingers crossed we don’t see spikes on neighbor islands (current spike is mostly Oahu).

Hawaii’s numbers are relatively very low compared to most states so just takes a couple of outbreak clusters to really throw the stats.


Interesting. It does seem that the newer cases are related to gatherings of a lot of people. I just watched the news about Germany and read that 360,000 people are now under lock down because of an infected meat plant. People are furious at the owner.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/europe/g ... index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ak-germany
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:20 am

Corona deaths are down in The United States 90% since the April peak. That is the only stat people are burying their heads in the sand about. That stat is easy to find, unless you don't want to. That's a 90% drop in just two months.

Cases and hospitalizations have their place as far as making sure resources aren't overwhelmed, but with very few exceptions, American hospitals never came remotely close to any "overwhelmed" threshold and aren't now.

Death counts have trended significantly down and continue to do so, and this despite any "alarming" increase in cases.

Stay home if you're afraid, but just be sure to stay out of our way.

https://outkick.com/media-ignores-90-co ... n-country/
Last edited by williaminsd on Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4236
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:22 am

Washington governor just announced that masks are required in indoor public spaces, and outdoors where distancing cannot be maintained. The state is moving toward Phase 3 at the same time. At this time the most serious outbreaks are in rural agricultural areas, but community spread, and not food plant. My county continues to progress with a slight increase in cases, still only the 2 deaths from months ago. The plan is to get back to work, with distancing, masks, testing, and contact tracing of those testing positive. I think it will work. Until vaccines come along (if and when) we cannot go back to the old normal. Change happens.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4756
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:34 am

Knowing how business travel has been cut it's not surprising to see how effected NYC is. So much of the massive o&d is business traffic. I don't see that or the reputation that NYC is safe from the virus coming back anytime soon.

Even if we get a vaccine it's gonna take a long time to get production in the billions of doses and it's gonna go to front line workers first not stuck at home business travellers! I want some more time and trials before I get a rushed vaccine ,and I am all for vaccines but this has been the most rushed ever. Long term effects are impossible to know. A.net wants a vaccine tomorrow and aviation back now, reality is it will all come back but slowly like years away. The airlines know this is years away to 2019 numbers ie why they retired whole plane types. It will all hit record highs again, just longer away then some people want.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1708
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:40 am

williaminsd wrote:
Corona deaths are down in The United States 90% since the April peak. That is the only stat people are burying their heads in the sand about. That stat is easy to find, unless you don't want to. That's a 90% drop in just two months.

Cases and hospitalizations have their place as far as making sure resources aren't overwhelmed, but with very few exceptions, American hospitals never came remotely close to any "overwhelmed" threshold and aren't now.

Death counts have trended significantly down and continue to do so, and this despite any "alarming" increase in cases.

Stay home if you're afraid, but just be sure to stay out of our way.

https://outkick.com/media-ignores-90-co ... n-country/

Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:24 am

cledaybuck wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Corona deaths are down in The United States 90% since the April peak. That is the only stat people are burying their heads in the sand about. That stat is easy to find, unless you don't want to. That's a 90% drop in just two months.

Cases and hospitalizations have their place as far as making sure resources aren't overwhelmed, but with very few exceptions, American hospitals never came remotely close to any "overwhelmed" threshold and aren't now.

Death counts have trended significantly down and continue to do so, and this despite any "alarming" increase in cases.

Stay home if you're afraid, but just be sure to stay out of our way.

https://outkick.com/media-ignores-90-co ... n-country/

Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.


Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.

No "cherry-picking." Just went with the last two days the data is available. The trend as shown on the chart linked below is unmistakable.

https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Death totals in The United States are PLUMMETING. For two days in a row now, the drop is 90% and the continuing trend, as shown, is clear.

Cower if you like, but I'm reasonably young, reasonably healthy, practice good hygiene, keep my distance from vulnerable populations, and refuse to participate in your fear porn.

As our country reopens, cases may be going up as more testing occurs, but actual deaths are down, WAY down.
 
chicawgo
Posts: 441
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:50 am

williaminsd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Corona deaths are down in The United States 90% since the April peak. That is the only stat people are burying their heads in the sand about. That stat is easy to find, unless you don't want to. That's a 90% drop in just two months.

Cases and hospitalizations have their place as far as making sure resources aren't overwhelmed, but with very few exceptions, American hospitals never came remotely close to any "overwhelmed" threshold and aren't now.

Death counts have trended significantly down and continue to do so, and this despite any "alarming" increase in cases.

Stay home if you're afraid, but just be sure to stay out of our way.

https://outkick.com/media-ignores-90-co ... n-country/

Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.


Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.

No "cherry-picking." Just went with the last two days the data is available. The trend as shown on the chart linked below is unmistakable.

https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Death totals in The United States are PLUMMETING. For two days in a row now, the drop is 90% and the continuing trend, as shown, is clear.

Cower if you like, but I'm reasonably young, reasonably healthy, practice good hygiene, keep my distance from vulnerable populations, and refuse to participate in your fear porn.

As our country reopens, cases may be going up as more testing occurs, but actual deaths are down, WAY down.


I generally have been skeptical too about the overreaction and media overhype of coronavirus and actually went on 4 trips during April and May. But in this case the data does seem to show that those states are likely to see significant increases in death pretty shortly for the following reasons:

-Remember that it takes 2 weeks just to have symptoms and then it can be weeks more before death. And the case numbers just started skyrocketing a few weeks ago.

-the daily hospitalization increases in those states are skyrocketing. That negates the claim that it’s only young people that won’t get it bad and negates the claim that the cases are just because of increased testing. If hospitalizations are dramatically increasing, that means a lot more people are getting sick which means more people will die.

Unfortunately I think the data proves this is inevitable though I hate to acknowledge it.
 
LOT767301ER
Posts: 123
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:14 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:05 am

chicawgo wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.


Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.

No "cherry-picking." Just went with the last two days the data is available. The trend as shown on the chart linked below is unmistakable.

https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Death totals in The United States are PLUMMETING. For two days in a row now, the drop is 90% and the continuing trend, as shown, is clear.

Cower if you like, but I'm reasonably young, reasonably healthy, practice good hygiene, keep my distance from vulnerable populations, and refuse to participate in your fear porn.

As our country reopens, cases may be going up as more testing occurs, but actual deaths are down, WAY down.


I generally have been skeptical too about the overreaction and media overhype of coronavirus and actually went on 4 trips during April and May. But in this case the data does seem to show that those states are likely to see significant increases in death pretty shortly for the following reasons:

-Remember that it takes 2 weeks just to have symptoms and then it can be weeks more before death. And the case numbers just started skyrocketing a few weeks ago.

-the daily hospitalization increases in those states are skyrocketing. That negates the claim that it’s only young people that won’t get it bad and negates the claim that the cases are just because of increased testing. If hospitalizations are dramatically increasing, that means a lot more people are getting sick which means more people will die.

Unfortunately I think the data proves this is inevitable though I hate to acknowledge it.


The 2 week lag is a myth now.

Image

The CFR/IFR rate of someone in their 30s (avg age of infection in FL/TX/AZ) right now according to the CDC is around 10x lower than that of someone who is in their 60s/70s/80s which was the case 2 months ago. I dont buy the rise in deaths to be that dramatic. Some rise will obviously occur just due to volume.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:03 pm

LOT767301ER wrote:
The 2 week lag is a myth now.

Image

The CFR/IFR rate of someone in their 30s (avg age of infection in FL/TX/AZ) right now according to the CDC is around 10x lower than that of someone who is in their 60s/70s/80s which was the case 2 months ago. I dont buy the rise in deaths to be that dramatic. Some rise will obviously occur just due to volume.


There is a real problem with that chart. NY/NJ was significantly under counting the number of cases in the beginning because we simply did not have enough testing available. People were showing up to get tested with COVID like symptoms and could not get tested. We probably had a couple of weeks of explosive growth in the number of cases before it got captured in the official numbers. You don't go from 100 to 10000 cases in the space of a week (like in N) unless most of those 10k people were already infected but not tested. So a lot of those tests didn't happen until people were further along in their sickness.

Now that testing is widely available, you can get tested very early on, like a couple of days after you start getting symptoms, that also significantly increases the time from testing to death.

If you actually had adequate testing capacity all the way through, then you could use something like the chart you posted to figure out the lag.

In terms of mortality rate, I think it's always been about the same as long as hospital system hasn't been overwhelmed (probably around 0.1% for people under 50). We just never captured how many people were actually infected with COVID in NY/NJ. the problem in FL/TX/AZ is that their hospital systems are getting close to being overwhelmed. Once you hit that point, that's when the number realy goes up.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:17 pm

chicawgo wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.


Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.

No "cherry-picking." Just went with the last two days the data is available. The trend as shown on the chart linked below is unmistakable.

https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Death totals in The United States are PLUMMETING. For two days in a row now, the drop is 90% and the continuing trend, as shown, is clear.

Cower if you like, but I'm reasonably young, reasonably healthy, practice good hygiene, keep my distance from vulnerable populations, and refuse to participate in your fear porn.

As our country reopens, cases may be going up as more testing occurs, but actual deaths are down, WAY down.


I generally have been skeptical too about the overreaction and media overhype of coronavirus and actually went on 4 trips during April and May. But in this case the data does seem to show that those states are likely to see significant increases in death pretty shortly for the following reasons:

-Remember that it takes 2 weeks just to have symptoms and then it can be weeks more before death. And the case numbers just started skyrocketing a few weeks ago.

-the daily hospitalization increases in those states are skyrocketing. That negates the claim that it’s omnly young people that won’t get it bad and negates the claim that the cases are just because of increased testing. If hospitalizations are dramatically increasing, that means a lot more people are getting sick which means more people will die.

Unfortunately I think the data proves this is inevitable though I hate to acknowledge it.


Cases don't = deaths. The overwhelming majority of people who get this virus survive, many without showing any symptoms at all. And, as much as some may wish it otherwise for their own perverse reasons, the data is clear and unambiguous: the death rate is collapsing.

Will there be bumps and hills in the death graph? Of course there will, that is how viruses work. But the overall trend is down.

Another item to keep in mind is that viruses typically take the low-hanging fruit, if you will, first. Once it makes its way through those vulnerable (like the over 75 population), it finds a much more robust populous upon which it can't wreak its deadly toll. That is certainly what we're seeing now and suggests that our death counts will continue to drop as susceptible hosts become more scarce.

As far as data "proving" anything "inevitable:" the "data" doesn't prove anything. It's the interpretation of that data that either validates or refutes a prediction. So far, almost every prediction based on data has been completely wrong, starting with the 2.2 million American deaths that lead to the lockdown that crippled our economy, threw millions out of work and destroyed their financial futures.

If you want to take no risk whatsoever to catch this disease, a disease that if you are reasonably healthy your chances of dying from it are minuscule, then stay home. But don't force your fear onto others.

Even in California, work is returning, because it has to. Our airports are more crowded with each passing day. While as we all know, we have a long way to go re airport traffic, but fear is losing and people are returning to the skies. The virus, as shown by the death counts, is losing.

I had four trips in June. I have four, so far, scheduled for July. Our meetings typically have four to 12 in attendance and you would be hard-pressed to tell the difference between these meetings and those in January. For me, this is approaching normal, and I have precisely zero fear.

I won't force anyone to fly. Don't anyone try to force me to stay home...
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:30 pm

My current worry is not that if I got it that I would immediately die, but rather what the long term implications might be. Research in to the effects of the virus keep turning up more extensive body damage than just lungs. It might be that people who get infected get long term chronic conditions associated with the disease. It is to early to know if something like that will happen, but I just got this hunch from the studies I have seen (note I am a chemist, not a professional in the life sciences I know how to read a scientific paper and examine data, but no nothing particular knowledge of biological systems). Therefore people who are young and healthy now might be regretting their decisions in years to come. Hopefully my fear is unfounded, but in the immediate crisis It might be something that is overlooked and currently unanswerable.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1708
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:49 pm

williaminsd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Corona deaths are down in The United States 90% since the April peak. That is the only stat people are burying their heads in the sand about. That stat is easy to find, unless you don't want to. That's a 90% drop in just two months.

Cases and hospitalizations have their place as far as making sure resources aren't overwhelmed, but with very few exceptions, American hospitals never came remotely close to any "overwhelmed" threshold and aren't now.

Death counts have trended significantly down and continue to do so, and this despite any "alarming" increase in cases.

Stay home if you're afraid, but just be sure to stay out of our way.

https://outkick.com/media-ignores-90-co ... n-country/

Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.


Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.
863.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:01 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Only if you cherry pick the data to compare the peak deaths to a Sunday are deaths down 90%. Take a look at today’s over 800 death’s reported for example.


Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.
863.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


The trend remains in steep decline and that's the point. You picking the highest death number since June 9 and claiming that number accurately reflects the trend is the very definition of, "cherry-picking."
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:03 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
My current worry is not that if I got it that I would immediately die, but rather what the long term implications might be. Research in to the effects of the virus keep turning up more extensive body damage than just lungs. It might be that people who get infected get long term chronic conditions associated with the disease. It is to early to know if something like that will happen, but I just got this hunch from the studies I have seen (note I am a chemist, not a professional in the life sciences I know how to read a scientific paper and examine data, but no nothing particular knowledge of biological systems). Therefore people who are young and healthy now might be regretting their decisions in years to come. Hopefully my fear is unfounded, but in the immediate crisis It might be something that is overlooked and currently unanswerable.


Then don't fly. Completely your choice. Completely understandable.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:12 pm

The bottom line is that we cannot keep an economy closed down waiting for a vaccine. A vaccine by the way that may only be effective for a certain percentage of the population. The best defense is a good offense, in other words lead a healthy lifestyle. And BTW obesity kills far more each year but you never hear anyone talking about that, and the fact that it makes COVID 19 more deadly. As others have said if you're risk tolerance is 0% stay sheltered at home. If you'r at high risk and not over age 65 maybe you should consider the lifestyle choices you've made that put you at risk.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:12 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
My current worry is not that if I got it that I would immediately die, but rather what the long term implications might be. Research in to the effects of the virus keep turning up more extensive body damage than just lungs. It might be that people who get infected get long term chronic conditions associated with the disease. It is to early to know if something like that will happen, but I just got this hunch from the studies I have seen (note I am a chemist, not a professional in the life sciences I know how to read a scientific paper and examine data, but no nothing particular knowledge of biological systems). Therefore people who are young and healthy now might be regretting their decisions in years to come. Hopefully my fear is unfounded, but in the immediate crisis It might be something that is overlooked and currently unanswerable.


Then don't fly. Completely your choice. Completely understandable.


I am not planning to. Nor travel by another means as I am currently in one of the few areas of the US with very few cases. Going anywhere else would increase my risk dramatically. My company has relaxed some vendor service visit restrictions but no one is allowed to travel for work until at least September 1st.

The reason we need to reopen the economy is not because we would otherwise all starve to death, but rather the entire system is very leveraged and everyone owes everyone else a lot of money and if the flow stops the whole house of cards collapses. The stock markets are not pricing in imminent collapse despite all the people not working. There is some meaning burred in all this that i am not skilled enough to winkle out.
Last edited by Exeiowa on Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:14 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
My current worry is not that if I got it that I would immediately die, but rather what the long term implications might be. Research in to the effects of the virus keep turning up more extensive body damage than just lungs. It might be that people who get infected get long term chronic conditions associated with the disease. It is to early to know if something like that will happen, but I just got this hunch from the studies I have seen (note I am a chemist, not a professional in the life sciences I know how to read a scientific paper and examine data, but no nothing particular knowledge of biological systems). Therefore people who are young and healthy now might be regretting their decisions in years to come. Hopefully my fear is unfounded, but in the immediate crisis It might be something that is overlooked and currently unanswerable.


Then don't fly. Completely your choice. Completely understandable.


I am not planning to. Nor travel by another means as I am currently in one of the few areas of the US with very few cases. Going anywhere else would increase my risk dramatically. My company has relaxed some vendor service visit restrictions but no one is allowed to travel for work until at least september 1st.


Isn't "choice" a great thing?
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:18 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

Then don't fly. Completely your choice. Completely understandable.


I am not planning to. Nor travel by another means as I am currently in one of the few areas of the US with very few cases. Going anywhere else would increase my risk dramatically. My company has relaxed some vendor service visit restrictions but no one is allowed to travel for work until at least september 1st.


Isn't "choice" a great thing?


But it is best if we operate with informed choice. Most of us do not have the expertise to understand all and must have it filtered through interpreters so we may understand.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.

This is kind of a false measure.
Rising cases reflects rising testing. Hospitalizations is the number you should be following.
For instance, In late March, early April, Indiana statewide was averaging 200-300 tests per day, while the hospital census shows 1600+ in hospitals.
Now they are testing 7-10,000 a DAY in Indiana, with around 700 in hospitals. It is when that number goes up, that closing considerations start.

That does not take into account the massive resources required to treat this. An acquaintance has been hospitalized since April 18th, almost all of it in ICU. He just went back on a vent yesterday. The day before they were talking about moving him to a rehab center. Muni bus driver....

This bug is nasty, don’t discount it, but don’t get lost in the data. Or the political bs....
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1708
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:29 pm

williaminsd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.
863.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


The trend remains in steep decline and that's the point. You picking the highest death number since June 9 and claiming that number accurately reflects the trend is the very definition of, "cherry-picking."

I'm not cherry picking anything. You asked for today's (now yesterdays) number, and I gave it to you. Agreed that the trend is down, but it is not down 90%. Unless you cherry pick the data to make it that way. That is my point. We would be a lot better off if we could all be honest about this virus and not put or blinders on to whatever data doesn't fit our view.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:30 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:

I am not planning to. Nor travel by another means as I am currently in one of the few areas of the US with very few cases. Going anywhere else would increase my risk dramatically. My company has relaxed some vendor service visit restrictions but no one is allowed to travel for work until at least september 1st.


Isn't "choice" a great thing?


But it is best if we operate with informed choice. Most of us do not have the expertise to understand all and must have it filtered through interpreters so we may understand.


And it's up to each individual to decide their own threshold for, "informed." Our respective thresholds may be different, but it's up to me to decide what's best for me and I won't tell you what's "best" for you.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 15

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos