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tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:44 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.

This is kind of a false measure.
Rising cases reflects rising testing. Hospitalizations is the number you should be following.
For instance, In late March, early April, Indiana statewide was averaging 200-300 tests per day, while the hospital census shows 1600+ in hospitals.
Now they are testing 7-10,000 a DAY in Indiana, with around 700 in hospitals. It is when that number goes up, that closing considerations start.

That does not take into account the massive resources required to treat this. An acquaintance has been hospitalized since April 18th, almost all of it in ICU. He just went back on a vent yesterday. The day before they were talking about moving him to a rehab center. Muni bus driver....

This bug is nasty, don’t discount it, but don’t get lost in the data. Or the political bs....


I agree that hospitalization is the one we should be focusing on. We are seeing surge in hospitalization in FL/TX/AZ whereas the Northeastern states have had a significant decline in the past few weeks. Right now in New York, they are doing 60k test a day and only getting 1% positivity rate, which means they are catching most of the new cases.

My point is that due to the shift in risk level across the regions, travel pattern will also change. It seems like people are tired of staying at home and want to go vacationing somewhere. The question is where they are going. Florida, Arizona, South Carolina and Texas saw the demand come back first. Once this news gets into people's heads (and there is a lag), I think demand to these areas will drop. And that will be a problem for the LCCs that put their entire game plan into Florida for summer season.
 
baje427
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:08 pm

I think its pretty obvious that things are going to be bad in the US again. When more people get sick it's only a matter of time before flight crews also get sick. On the current path I suspect demand for travel will decline significantly over the next few months.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4109
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:23 pm

Epidemiology data is difficult to accurately comprehend. Every graph of data contains some number of assumptions. If you look at two or three different graphs and attempt to extrapolate from that you are only apt to make yourself look like an idiot. You may not actually be an idiot - only sound like one.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5133
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.


https://onemileatatime.com/14-day-trave ... -new-york/
"14-Day Travel Quarantine Coming To NY, NJ, And CT"


Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Utah
Washington

All subject to restrictions

Not good news for northeast travel
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.


https://onemileatatime.com/14-day-trave ... -new-york/
"14-Day Travel Quarantine Coming To NY, NJ, And CT"


Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Utah
Washington

All subject to restrictions

Not good news for northeast travel

agreed, but I think this also just kills travel to Florida and the carolinas.

And as a whole, I think there is a realistic chance of pullback in travel demand. These travel restrictions won't be restricted to just NY/NJ/CT/PA.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:33 pm

The quarantine albeit not very enforceable is going to take a bite out of travel to Florida. I expect those packed flights I saw out of MIA to LGA, JFK, and EWR are going to quickly become empty again.

In Dallas I remember you had to show whether you were connecting or not coming off a flight. Those coming home were told to quarantine. Again was that actually enforced to any extent given the impractical nature who knows?
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday.

That looks to be what's happening right now in Texas, Florida and Arizona and there is no mandatory mask still. Taking a look here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Texas at over 5000 cases today and Florida had been over 3000 for several days and Arizona at over 2000 for several days. Still very low death per 1 million, which would indicate very few people have been infected up to this point so things can spread really quickly. South Carolina is also very high for its population size.

Looking at rt.live now, https://rt.live/. States with high air travel demand and high rate of growth include the same 4 states + Nevada. Nevada is very concerning because it had been reducing for a while and then is now reaching R=1.4 and this is before the stirp opened again.

In 2 weeks, we could be seeing Texas with over 10,000 cases a day, Florida with close to 10000 cases a day, Arizona with 5000 cases a day and Nevada with 2000 cases a day. Once the narrative switches on these states, air demand will drop even if they don't shutdown bars and restaurants. And the thing is everyone has been adding to these states.

Using the same logic on opposite end, the 5 state hit the hardest so far (by death per 1 million) have been NY/NJ/CT/MA/RI with DC after that. Going by rt.live, these are also the states that now have really crushed the new case count. Again, it takes time for narrative to change. The business demand in the northeastern states are still minimal, but I would say that there is a lot of pentup leisure travel demand here. Most people still haven't used much of their vacation and now things are finally less dire outside.

By the time airlines actually start to fly their more aggressive July schedule, are they going to find a bunch of no-shows to Florida, Texas and Arizona. Instead, people will end up flying to Northeast for leisure.


https://onemileatatime.com/14-day-trave ... -new-york/
"14-Day Travel Quarantine Coming To NY, NJ, And CT"


Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Utah
Washington

All subject to restrictions

Not good news for northeast travel


California seems to be missing from the list (+6,419 cases yesterday).
 
User avatar
UPlog
Posts: 558
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:51 pm

Dieuwer wrote:

California seems to be missing from the list (+6,419 cases yesterday).


CA while big has a lower overall infection rate.

The quarantine applies to:

Cuomo said the quarantine will apply to any state where 10 of every 100,000 people test positive on a rolling seven-day basis, or where the positivity rate in the total population is 10 percent, also on a seven-day rolling basis.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/t ... e/2482284/
I fly your boxes
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:48 pm

This is starting to feel a lot like early March.
- first EU is not lifting travel restriction on US
- Northeastern states impose some level of quarantine orders on high infection states.

Hard for me to not see more new like this come out over the next week. Terrible news for airline bookings.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is starting to feel a lot like early March.
- first EU is not lifting travel restriction on US
- Northeastern states impose some level of quarantine orders on high infection states.

Hard for me to not see more new like this come out over the next week. Terrible news for airline bookings.


That's what you get when you find yourself in the middle of a mud-sling contest between the EU and the US.
Remember the old saying: "When They Go Low, We Go Lower"?
Last edited by Dieuwer on Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:15 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is starting to feel a lot like early March.
- first EU is not lifting travel restriction on US
- Northeastern states impose some level of quarantine orders on high infection states.

Hard for me to not see more new like this come out over the next week. Terrible news for airline bookings.


Add in high unemployment numbers, no more CARES checks, no indication that the $600 a week Federal kick in on Unemployment Insurance will continue and that this will further delay the return of business travel we could be back to very empty flights by August, if not sooner.
 
chicawgo
Posts: 435
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:34 pm

LOT767301ER wrote:
chicawgo wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

Wth are you talking about? 283 deaths on June 21 (Sunday), 292 deaths June 22. Those are the last two days for which the data was posted. If you have today's death total, I'd be a bit skeptical given that "today" has not yet concluded in The United States.

No "cherry-picking." Just went with the last two days the data is available. The trend as shown on the chart linked below is unmistakable.

https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

Death totals in The United States are PLUMMETING. For two days in a row now, the drop is 90% and the continuing trend, as shown, is clear.

Cower if you like, but I'm reasonably young, reasonably healthy, practice good hygiene, keep my distance from vulnerable populations, and refuse to participate in your fear porn.

As our country reopens, cases may be going up as more testing occurs, but actual deaths are down, WAY down.


I generally have been skeptical too about the overreaction and media overhype of coronavirus and actually went on 4 trips during April and May. But in this case the data does seem to show that those states are likely to see significant increases in death pretty shortly for the following reasons:

-Remember that it takes 2 weeks just to have symptoms and then it can be weeks more before death. And the case numbers just started skyrocketing a few weeks ago.

-the daily hospitalization increases in those states are skyrocketing. That negates the claim that it’s only young people that won’t get it bad and negates the claim that the cases are just because of increased testing. If hospitalizations are dramatically increasing, that means a lot more people are getting sick which means more people will die.

Unfortunately I think the data proves this is inevitable though I hate to acknowledge it.


The 2 week lag is a myth now.

Image

The CFR/IFR rate of someone in their 30s (avg age of infection in FL/TX/AZ) right now according to the CDC is around 10x lower than that of someone who is in their 60s/70s/80s which was the case 2 months ago. I dont buy the rise in deaths to be that dramatic. Some rise will obviously occur just due to volume.


That's a fair point and I don't really disagree with what you're saying. The rise in deaths may not be as dramatic as it was in NY at the beginning, but I do think it will be noticable. The biggest concern is the hospitalization rate explosion. I acknowledged that the average age has lowered dramatically. That will help. But that still doesn't explain the significant increase in hospitalization rate. Just saw that Houston ICU beds are at 98% for example.

And as someone else mentioned, the testing protocols have changed. There was much more of a delay in testing results at the beginning whereas now some of those kinks have been worked out. So the chart may not be comparing apples to apples.

williaminsd wrote:

Cases don't = deaths. The overwhelming majority of people who get this virus survive, many without showing any symptoms at all. And, as much as some may wish it otherwise for their own perverse reasons, the data is clear and unambiguous: the death rate is collapsing.

Will there be bumps and hills in the death graph? Of course there will, that is how viruses work. But the overall trend is down.

Another item to keep in mind is that viruses typically take the low-hanging fruit, if you will, first. Once it makes its way through those vulnerable (like the over 75 population), it finds a much more robust populous upon which it can't wreak its deadly toll. That is certainly what we're seeing now and suggests that our death counts will continue to drop as susceptible hosts become more scarce.

As far as data "proving" anything "inevitable:" the "data" doesn't prove anything. It's the interpretation of that data that either validates or refutes a prediction. So far, almost every prediction based on data has been completely wrong, starting with the 2.2 million American deaths that lead to the lockdown that crippled our economy, threw millions out of work and destroyed their financial futures.

If you want to take no risk whatsoever to catch this disease, a disease that if you are reasonably healthy your chances of dying from it are minuscule, then stay home. But don't force your fear onto others.

Even in California, work is returning, because it has to. Our airports are more crowded with each passing day. While as we all know, we have a long way to go re airport traffic, but fear is losing and people are returning to the skies. The virus, as shown by the death counts, is losing.

I had four trips in June. I have four, so far, scheduled for July. Our meetings typically have four to 12 in attendance and you would be hard-pressed to tell the difference between these meetings and those in January. For me, this is approaching normal, and I have precisely zero fear.

I won't force anyone to fly. Don't anyone try to force me to stay home...
.


I agree with virtually everything you said. Are you actually disagreeing with me? I told you that I've taken several trips and have more planned. I'm not afraid and I'm not forcing my fear onto anyone. My only point was that I believe the data "suggests to me" (since you addressed my semantics) that there will be an increase in deaths in the states where we're seeing increased cases and hospitalizations. There's no question the overall death rate is way down. I was never claiming it wasn't.
 
AmericanAir88
Posts: 43
Joined: Wed May 27, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:01 pm

I do not believe this mandatory quarantine will cause a big change in travel like we saw in April. It is summer time and there are people who will travel regardless of the outcome.

It seems that the cause of the influx in cases is primarily because of people who willingly disobey social distancing orders (ie do not wear masks) or states that reopened too early. The states that reopened too early will not lock down again because the people who disobeyed will continue to disobey.

I believe that the "second wave" will be in states that had issues above. Basically the majority of the south and some of the midwest. Travel will probably decline in September, but have a sharp uptick in November once the holidays come around and hopefully there are better treatments/containment methods. If the virus is still a big issue in late 2020, it may actually become an endemic, which means that: Herd immunity, acceptation, and vaccine research will be the priority.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7944
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:12 pm

I get the sense that right now we are seeing the impact of a few things, primarily as states have "opened-up" we are seeing the younger people throwing caution to the wind and going out to the bars, house parties, beach parties, and large gatherings of random (e.g., non-family, non-close friends) individuals. Add in a bunch of booze and maybe other substances its no surprise they are tracing outbreaks in the 20-30 somethings to bars and large gatherings. At 21 I felt invisible too.
Frankly, I would say close the bars down, but then they will just go to large house parties instead.

Same with outbreaks in prisons and large communal living situations.

I am not afraid if I am mindful of who I'm around, how long I'm around them, and avoiding groups of completely random people in close proximity outside my community then we should be fine.

When I hear about cases traced to people shopping at my local grocery store with masks and while social distancing, then I'll be concerned.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7944
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:16 pm

The thing that is going to be strange this year is that a number of universities are significantly altering their academic calenders.

Many universities are ending in-person instruction prior to Thanksgiving and not coming back in-person until January.
Trying to minimize potential impact of the travel home and back after Thanksgiving.

Also, some are eliminating Spring Break in spring semester for the same reasons, with the futile effort to try to keep their campuses in a bubble (yeah right).

That could impact Spring Break travel to some extent next March/April if we see a lot of universities not doing traditional spring breaks.
Then again, students by then may just say screw it and just take a long weekend anyways.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:38 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The thing that is going to be strange this year is that a number of universities are significantly altering their academic calenders.

Many universities are ending in-person instruction prior to Thanksgiving and not coming back in-person until January.
Trying to minimize potential impact of the travel home and back after Thanksgiving.

Also, some are eliminating Spring Break in spring semester for the same reasons, with the futile effort to try to keep their campuses in a bubble (yeah right).

That could impact Spring Break travel to some extent next March/April if we see a lot of universities not doing traditional spring breaks.
Then again, students by then may just say screw it and just take a long weekend anyways.


Overpriced elitist universities are going to be in a whole world of hurt. Nobody in their right mind is going to pay top dollar to sit in front of an online Zoom class. All the related businesses like college apartment rentals are going to feel the pain too. I expect entire industries to collapse come September.
Watch states that tend to have large (foreign) student populations like Massachusetts.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1690
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:31 am

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is starting to feel a lot like early March.
- first EU is not lifting travel restriction on US
- Northeastern states impose some level of quarantine orders on high infection states.

Hard for me to not see more new like this come out over the next week. Terrible news for airline bookings.


That's what you get when you find yourself in the middle of a mud-sling contest between the EU and the US.
Remember the old saying: "When They Go Low, We Go Lower"?

This isn’t some mud slinging contest. This is a perfectly rational decision by the EU when looking at cases in the US.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4811
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:53 am

cledaybuck wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is starting to feel a lot like early March.
- first EU is not lifting travel restriction on US
- Northeastern states impose some level of quarantine orders on high infection states.

Hard for me to not see more new like this come out over the next week. Terrible news for airline bookings.


That's what you get when you find yourself in the middle of a mud-sling contest between the EU and the US.
Remember the old saying: "When They Go Low, We Go Lower"?

This isn’t some mud slinging contest. This is a perfectly rational decision by the EU when looking at cases in the US.

Just text inbound passengers. How hard is that? They are doing that now in Alaska
 
boilerla
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:30 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:16 am

williaminsd wrote:
Corona deaths are down in The United States 90% since the April peak. That is the only stat people are burying their heads in the sand about. That stat is easy to find, unless you don't want to. That's a 90% drop in just two months.

Cases and hospitalizations have their place as far as making sure resources aren't overwhelmed, but with very few exceptions, American hospitals never came remotely close to any "overwhelmed" threshold and aren't now.

That is not remotely accurate. My husband used to run ICU departments. They very certainly get overwhelmed. Many COVID patients aren't staying for a night in the ER; many are going to the ICU where hospitals in suburban areas may only have 4-8 beds. In rural areas it's even worse, with the nearest hospital with an actual ICU being 30-45 minutes away, never mind if they have any beds. Hard hit states are red states in the Deep South and west where there are very remote areas.

Hospital beds are also a scarce resource. Once they are consumed they are gone. The 4th of July brings a lot of people partying and being reckless. Fireworks accidents, people who ignore stroke and heart attack symptoms and heat stroke are common. It's not uncommon for a busy holiday weekend to bring in a surge of cases to the ER. If those ER and ICU resources are already taken by other COVID-19 patients, people die.

Houston Medical Center, the largest in the country and perhaps the world is at 97% capacity for its ICU beds. Going into a busy holiday weekend, that has many worried.* They'll have to activate emergency plans to activate more hospital beds which means more health care workers at risk, many of whom are on the brink of exhaustion.

32andBelow wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

That's what you get when you find yourself in the middle of a mud-sling contest between the EU and the US.
Remember the old saying: "When They Go Low, We Go Lower"?

This isn’t some mud slinging contest. This is a perfectly rational decision by the EU when looking at cases in the US.

Just text inbound passengers. How hard is that? They are doing that now in Alaska

Because if you test positive what happens? You're now on foreign soil, and may require hospitalization. Not something I'd want to add to my state/country.

* https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -hospitals
 
LOT767301ER
Posts: 121
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:14 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:37 am

Houston Medical Center, the largest in the country and perhaps the world is at 97% capacity for its ICU beds. Going into a busy holiday weekend, that has many worried.* They'll have to activate emergency plans to activate more hospital beds which means more health care workers at risk, many of whom are on the brink of exhaustion.


You're not being fair here. TMC is at 97% but COVID patients are only 27% of that. 70% of the ICU is occupied by people that have nothing to do with COVID.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4811
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:15 am

LOT767301ER wrote:
Houston Medical Center, the largest in the country and perhaps the world is at 97% capacity for its ICU beds. Going into a busy holiday weekend, that has many worried.* They'll have to activate emergency plans to activate more hospital beds which means more health care workers at risk, many of whom are on the brink of exhaustion.


You're not being fair here. TMC is at 97% but COVID patients are only 27% of that. 70% of the ICU is occupied by people that have nothing to do with COVID.

The real story is ICUs are 60-90% full ALWAYS
 
chrisair
Posts: 2143
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:48 am

LOT767301ER wrote:
TMC is at 97% but COVID patients are only 27% of that. 70% of the ICU is occupied by people that have nothing to do with COVID.


Are you talking about Tucson Medical Center (TMC)? If so, do you have data from the hospital that specifically says the split is 27%COVID/70% Non?
 
boilerla
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:30 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:54 am

32andBelow wrote:
LOT767301ER wrote:
Houston Medical Center, the largest in the country and perhaps the world is at 97% capacity for its ICU beds. Going into a busy holiday weekend, that has many worried.* They'll have to activate emergency plans to activate more hospital beds which means more health care workers at risk, many of whom are on the brink of exhaustion.


You're not being fair here. TMC is at 97% but COVID patients are only 27% of that. 70% of the ICU is occupied by people that have nothing to do with COVID.

The real story is ICUs are 60-90% full ALWAYS

Yes, and the other real story is that most ICUs cannot actually staff their ICUs to 100%. Especially for weeks, even months, on end.

Many towns have a smaller hospital system than is ideal--2.8 beds per 1000 people is ideal, but many small to midsize towns in the midwest, south and west are at 2.0 or less. Italy, which was initially at the forefront of the pandemic, has 3.2 beds per 1000 people. Furthermore, most hospitals cannot actually operate at 90% capacity. They have only enough equipment (ventilators, masks) and staff (ICU nurses, doctors) for 90% capacity. Once they go above that they need to call in reserve doctors and nurses--who may be on a summer vacation right now, or just may be tired of it all and not answer the phone.

What happens if we get another flu season like 2017-2018 which affected kids disproportionately and killed a record number of children? Sorry little Johnny, grandma is in the hospital bed you need with coronavirus.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7944
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:39 am

I feel like we just in a weeks time or so just reverted back to where we were in April. We pissed away are frickin half assed quarentine(except
In a handful of states)
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:39 am

What you see in Houston and Phoenix is just the start of how bad things will get. Things got a lot worse in nyc after that and we actually had shut down by then. It will take weeks for mitigation steps to actually show up in hospitalization rate. Hospitals will be overrun very soon.

Greg Abbott said recently that shutdown is the last resort. You know shutdown is very much on his mind if he says that.

The tri state restrictions on places like Texas will probably be not that stringent but that news will stop a lot of people from going to these places.

We have talked about booking success out of Texas recently. I think over the next couple of weeks, there will be a reverse in that. You might see a lot of refunds coming. Aa, ua and wn will be hurt by this.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:43 am

Hate to tell the old folks but young people were partying before the lockdown ended. A big term among Generation Z-speakeasy. Clandestine private parties and young people are good at hiding their tracks. You can't keep otherwise healthy people locked down sacred of some disease that has well less than a 1% chance of killing them. Just look at the rate of substance use among young people. We wouldn't have such a health crisis if we didn't have the real health crisis, obesity and disease that results from obesity. But then personal responsibility is no longer in vogue. Just the government taking care of everyone.
 
SkyLife
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:45 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:52 am

32andBelow wrote:
LOT767301ER wrote:
Houston Medical Center, the largest in the country and perhaps the world is at 97% capacity for its ICU beds. Going into a busy holiday weekend, that has many worried.* They'll have to activate emergency plans to activate more hospital beds which means more health care workers at risk, many of whom are on the brink of exhaustion.


You're not being fair here. TMC is at 97% but COVID patients are only 27% of that. 70% of the ICU is occupied by people that have nothing to do with COVID.

The real story is ICUs are 60-90% full ALWAYS


This. My wife is a physician in a hospital and when the hospital is at capacity a stop light in the staff entrance is red. Meaning no more admissions can be given a bed at this time. That thing is always on...

Hospital capacity was close to full or full prior to covid
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:39 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Hate to tell the old folks but young people were partying before the lockdown ended. A big term among Generation Z-speakeasy. Clandestine private parties and young people are good at hiding their tracks. You can't keep otherwise healthy people locked down sacred of some disease that has well less than a 1% chance of killing them. Just look at the rate of substance use among young people. We wouldn't have such a health crisis if we didn't have the real health crisis, obesity and disease that results from obesity. But then personal responsibility is no longer in vogue. Just the government taking care of everyone.


I have to agree. The "War on COVID" seems to be have all the hallmarks of the "War on Drugs": law enforcement running around trying to control people.
WAKE UP! It's not gonna work. If people want to party, they gonna party. The only thing you can do is to make the "party" as safe as possible.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14426
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
What you see in Houston and Phoenix is just the start of how bad things will get. Things got a lot worse in nyc after that and we actually had shut down by then. It will take weeks for mitigation steps to actually show up in hospitalization rate. Hospitals will be overrun very soon.

Greg Abbott said recently that shutdown is the last resort. You know shutdown is very much on his mind if he says that.

The tri state restrictions on places like Texas will probably be not that stringent but that news will stop a lot of people from going to these places.

We have talked about booking success out of Texas recently. I think over the next couple of weeks, there will be a reverse in that. You might see a lot of refunds coming. Aa, ua and wn will be hurt by this.


I think you’re right. Here’s the basic trouble for bookings: states that are having trouble now (California, Florida, Texas) and states that likely will have trouble when they get to the stage of reopening that caused problems elsewhere (Illinois, New York) account for the vast majority of demand for air travel. The quieter success stories (maybe places like Ohio) don’t account for much demand. That paints a really bleak picture for the rest of the year.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
767driver
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:42 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:59 pm

chrisair wrote:
LOT767301ER wrote:
TMC is at 97% but COVID patients are only 27% of that. 70% of the ICU is occupied by people that have nothing to do with COVID.


Are you talking about Tucson Medical Center (TMC)? If so, do you have data from the hospital that specifically says the split is 27%COVID/70% Non?


Texas Medical Center in Houston, and yes 27% is accurate

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates ... n-metrics/
 
chrisair
Posts: 2143
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:22 pm

767driver wrote:
Texas Medical Center in Houston, and yes 27% is accurate

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates ... n-metrics/


Realized after I posted that it probably was referring to somewhere in Texas. Had Tucson on my mind, where those stats aren't correct. That TMC has 36 ICU beds with 20 dedicated to COVID-19.

Cheers.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24515
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:56 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like we just in a weeks time or so just reverted back to where we were in April. We pissed away are frickin half assed quarentine(except
In a handful of states)


:checkmark:

The U.S. should have adopted a strict extended nationwide lockdown. Basically put the nation in hibernation for 3 months.

Ignorance and rush to reopen will put us back to square one again unfortunately with sadly so many needless hospitalizations and deaths to come.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:00 pm

In the USA today already an article that some benefits will end before 7/31. Based upon the last job report of 2.5 million new jobs (which BTW if think as bogus as a $4 bill) and what may well be a surprising "good jobs report" for June (what I think will again be bogus as a $4 bill) I can very well see Congress claiming these benefits should not be expected. Time will tell but as of yet there's no assurance more dough from the federal government is on it's way.
 
dcaproducer
Posts: 300
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:26 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:26 pm

LAXintl wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like we just in a weeks time or so just reverted back to where we were in April. We pissed away are frickin half assed quarentine(except
In a handful of states)


:checkmark:

The U.S. should have adopted a strict extended nationwide lockdown. Basically put the nation in hibernation for 3 months.

Ignorance and rush to reopen will put us back to square one again unfortunately with sadly so many needless hospitalizations and deaths to come.


Bingo.

And to the comments that say the COVID scare is over, that is not correct. Many of my clients are large and medium sized companies. They have banned almost all business travel through end of 2020. My government clients are on a travel ban as well. I was on a client site yesterday and companies are taking things very seriously. 1. They don't want the legal responsibility and 2. Businesses tend to be more cautious, with good reason. Business travel, on a large scale, will not rebound this year. Every client who has large events scheduled this fall has taken them virtual.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4811
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:36 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like we just in a weeks time or so just reverted back to where we were in April. We pissed away are frickin half assed quarentine(except
In a handful of states)


:checkmark:

The U.S. should have adopted a strict extended nationwide lockdown. Basically put the nation in hibernation for 3 months.

Ignorance and rush to reopen will put us back to square one again unfortunately with sadly so many needless hospitalizations and deaths to come.


Bingo.

And to the comments that say the COVID scare is over, that is not correct. Many of my clients are large and medium sized companies. They have banned almost all business travel through end of 2020. My government clients are on a travel ban as well. I was on a client site yesterday and companies are taking things very seriously. 1. They don't want the legal responsibility and 2. Businesses tend to be more cautious, with good reason. Business travel, on a large scale, will not rebound this year. Every client who has large events scheduled this fall has taken them virtual.

Not my union baby. In person conferences in the fall. Woooo
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:24 pm

The number of in person trade shows, conferences, etc. will be very minimal. Companies by nature are risk adverse when it comes to putting it's employees at risk. Some business travel dealing with physical assets/facilities might be necessary but anything that can be virtual will for the most part remain virtual.

As far as the Federal government extending benefits I have my doubts. Who is the largest voting block? Suburban and urban professionals, which so far haven't been crucified in the employment market (although that could change). We shall see but I remember the 99 weekers even with the 2012 election looming. They faced the end of the road despite endless outcries.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:47 pm

If I was planning to travel long distance right now in the US, I would not be contemplating flying, but would instead drive, that way I can control who and when I interact with people. Its interesting that the inter-regional travel is what is effected, by being first the NE now the south meaning that a large portion of travel was blocked at one end and now is blocked at the other (almost like people travelling by planes help spread this all over in the first place)
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7780
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:53 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
If I was planning to travel long distance right now in the US, I would not be contemplating flying, but would instead drive, that way I can control who and when I interact with people.


Even if you're willing to sleep in your car that may not work depending on your routing. Lots of states still have quarantine (or test) requirements for interstate arrivals. This article is a few days old but documents them by state.

https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impact ... tions.html
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:09 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
If I was planning to travel long distance right now in the US, I would not be contemplating flying, but would instead drive, that way I can control who and when I interact with people.


Even if you're willing to sleep in your car that may not work depending on your routing. Lots of states still have quarantine (or test) requirements for interstate arrivals. This article is a few days old but documents them by state.

https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impact ... tions.html


I have an inflatable mattress for my backseat works great. I would not choose to travel at this point in time and am fortunate to be in one of the few regions that has had a very low rate of COVID, so I am definitely better of where I am than practically anywhere else in the country.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1690
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
If I was planning to travel long distance right now in the US, I would not be contemplating flying, but would instead drive, that way I can control who and when I interact with people.


Even if you're willing to sleep in your car that may not work depending on your routing. Lots of states still have quarantine (or test) requirements for interstate arrivals. This article is a few days old but documents them by state.

https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impact ... tions.html

Wow, some of those are hopelessly out of date.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4811
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:58 pm

Alaska is just testing everyone at the ports of entry. That is clearly the way forward.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5133
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:39 pm

Allegiant Air had an industry analyst call last week, shockingly, bookings for them are only down 10-20%
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
AngMoh
Posts: 1042
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:03 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:04 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like we just in a weeks time or so just reverted back to where we were in April. We pissed away are frickin half assed quarentine(except In a handful of states)


:checkmark:

The U.S. should have adopted a strict extended nationwide lockdown. Basically put the nation in hibernation for 3 months.

Ignorance and rush to reopen will put us back to square one again unfortunately with sadly so many needless hospitalizations and deaths to come.


Bingo.

And to the comments that say the COVID scare is over, that is not correct. Many of my clients are large and medium sized companies. They have banned almost all business travel through end of 2020. My government clients are on a travel ban as well. I was on a client site yesterday and companies are taking things very seriously. 1. They don't want the legal responsibility and 2. Businesses tend to be more cautious, with good reason. Business travel, on a large scale, will not rebound this year. Every client who has large events scheduled this fall has taken them virtual.


In May I was asked to speak in a conference in San Diego in end July. I mentioned that I have a travel ban, and the response was that I am the only one not allowed to travel there and they were surprised as everyone else seems to be allowed to travel. Last week it was announce that the conference is changed to fully online and no-one will need to travel.

People are hopelessly underestimating impact and doing way too little to mitigate and therefore extend the pain.
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TW870
Posts: 1215
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:14 pm

32andBelow wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

That's what you get when you find yourself in the middle of a mud-sling contest between the EU and the US.
Remember the old saying: "When They Go Low, We Go Lower"?

This isn’t some mud slinging contest. This is a perfectly rational decision by the EU when looking at cases in the US.

Just text inbound passengers. How hard is that? They are doing that now in Alaska


Iceland is doing it too. I think you actually will see this in more of Europe - especially if the U.S. rate goes back down. The EU restriction is a recommendation, but my understanding is that if member countries are able to do universal testing, they could still admit people from the U.S. At the current rate it will be impossible for a while, as the infection rate is just too high in the U.S. As others said you would risk a big burden on infrastructure as Americans would keep testing positive upon arrival and you would have to put a large number of people in quarantine or the hospital. But I do think you might see universal testing in more places for arrivals from places with a reasonable infection rate.

The bottom line is the virus decides, and unless the infection rate goes down in the U.S., we're going to be stuck here for some time.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:09 pm

It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4811
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.

What do you mean clearly it hasn’t happened? It’s not 1jul yet. So what data are your referencing.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.


I'm assuming many of these people bought cheap BE restrictive fares and are using PL/HW for hotel stays. In other words if they have travel plans over the next month or so they will travel. The question becomes future bookings particularly as Miami Dade and Broward shut down the beaches, clubs and bars. Disney delaying it's re-opening. Maybe people have gotten dumb enough that they would spend money to go to a city with god awful endless humidity and storms to walk around empty streets and look at boarded up buildings.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:05 pm

Forget people going to Florida in summer, I know for a fact that people from highly infected states have been coming to the NorthEast to have a week long summer vacation at the Cape. And no, they are not quarantining for 2 weeks.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.


The big thing beyond the quarantine is that Broward and Miami Dade have re-closed bars and nightclubs and possibly the beaches beyond the holiday weekend. I've lived in South Florida now for nearly 8 years and traveled here 20 times or more times a year for nearly 20 years. In winter time people come here for the weather. Summer time it's more for the beaches and nightclubs, particularly in SE Florida. Disney will also not re-open.

So as far as future bookings, not the month of July but beyond, how many people will want to fly to major Florida cities to walk around in sweltering heat and humidity, dodging thunderstorms to look at boarded up buildings and nothing to do at night but watch HBO. Our weather is retched from June to October but we'd rather put up with 4-5 months of sweltering humidity and temperatures, storms and an occasional hurricane over 4-5 months of snow, ice and freezing temperatures.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5071
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:13 pm

32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.

What do you mean clearly it hasn’t happened? It’s not 1jul yet. So what data are your referencing.


sorry, midwestindy posted a chart earlier that looks to be deleted. It showed the booking basically about the same for the past 3 weeks. I'm saying that given all the increased capacity and heavy discounting, I would've expected booking trend to have significantly improve had the news this past week not come out.

If ULCCs are getting most of their bookings 1 or 2 weeks out and their capacity is going up 50 to 100% in July (For example, NK up to 70+% in early July from 10% in early June), then they should be seeing a lot of increased bookings now.
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