Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5030
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:11 am

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.

What do you mean clearly it hasn’t happened? It’s not 1jul yet. So what data are your referencing.


sorry, midwestindy posted a chart earlier that looks to be deleted. It showed the booking basically about the same for the past 3 weeks. I'm saying that given all the increased capacity and heavy discounting, I would've expected booking trend to have significantly improve had the news this past week not come out.

If ULCCs are getting most of their bookings 1 or 2 weeks out and their capacity is going up 50 to 100% in July (For example, NK up to 70+% in early July from 10% in early June), then they should be seeing a lot of increased bookings now.


Lol, yeah apparently I need to post the links every time even though they are all cited at the beginning of thread:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources

I don't disagree that we would be seeing higher bookings without the increases in cases. However with that in mind, many people thought we would see massive (or at least sizable) dropoffs in overall bookings as a result, which hasn't happened yet.

The close in bookings is less of an issue for July, as a significant portion of July is already booked in. There were was a major spike in July bookings in early March, with no-change fees many people moved earlier vacations to later in the summer, and in addition Summer Bookings didn't drop off to nearly the level of near in bookings during the worst of the April months.

Plus remember that while G4, NK, and F9 may be running large(relatively) schedules, they overall make up a small portion of overall US capacity.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 4842
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:17 am

Hard for me to believe that most of the bookings are done for July when the close in fares are as low as what I am seeing. This would seem to contradict a lot of what we have been hearing up until now. Remember, capacity is doubling and bookings are flat for Weeks now.

Jonnyc just posted a chart where searches for Dallas and Philadelphia are both showing drops very recently.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5030
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:42 am

tphuang wrote:
Hard for me to believe that most of the bookings are done for July when the close in fares are as low as what I am seeing. This would seem to contradict a lot of what we have been hearing up until now. Remember, capacity is doubling and bookings are flat for Weeks now.

Jonnyc just posted a chart where searches for Dallas and Philadelphia are both showing drops very recently.


*From upthread*
Midwestindy wrote:
Something to keep in mind for July numbers is there was already sizable amount of booked in pax for summer, up until around March 14. For about a week or two in March, airlines released tons of low fares & were able to massively increase bookings for a short period of time.

This is Gary Kelly talking about it in very early May: "I think May will be better than April was, and I don't think June will be a good month, but hopefully it will be a bit better than May. And then we're looking forward to July and August, and we'll just have to see. There are bookings in place."

*US Domestic Numbers*
Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 4842
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:44 pm

This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule)
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in June to absorb the additional demand. Are we going to see the opposite in July like what AS is doing here?

Also, interesting chart from JonNYC with regard to demand out of DFW/PHL. Now, I continue to hold the belief that certain cities in northeast will see somewhat elevated demand from re-opening. But at least out of these 2 AA hubs, the demand is going back down to early May levels. Dallas looks to be seeing a bigger drop than Philly.
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1277 ... 44/photo/1
 
Sooner787
Posts: 2681
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:44 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule)
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in June to absorb the additional demand. Are we going to see the opposite in July like what AS is doing here?

Also, interesting chart from JonNYC with regard to demand out of DFW/PHL. Now, I continue to hold the belief that certain cities in northeast will see somewhat elevated demand from re-opening. But at least out of these 2 AA hubs, the demand is going back down to early May levels. Dallas looks to be seeing a bigger drop than Philly.
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1277 ... 44/photo/1


Well, AA says they're bringing 140 single aisle jets back online in July. Don't know how full they'll be.

Been watching DFW past few days and air traffic has increased , but the pax flights seem to trail off after 7pm or so,
after which it's the UPS / Fedex nightly airshow
 
Sooner787
Posts: 2681
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:44 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule)
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in June to absorb the additional demand. Are we going to see the opposite in July like what AS is doing here?

Also, interesting chart from JonNYC with regard to demand out of DFW/PHL. Now, I continue to hold the belief that certain cities in northeast will see somewhat elevated demand from re-opening. But at least out of these 2 AA hubs, the demand is going back down to early May levels. Dallas looks to be seeing a bigger drop than Philly.
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1277 ... 44/photo/1


Well, AA says they're bringing 140 single aisle jets back online in July. Don't know how full they'll be.

Been watching DFW past few days and air traffic has increased , but the pax flights seem to trail off after 7pm or so,
after which it's the UPS / Fedex nightly airshow
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:52 pm

Hubs that don't have domestic transcons other than arriving last flights of the night are ghost towns after 7 or 8PM. The last departing flight out of MIA is 8:30PM to LAX (unless that has recently changed). With reduced banks and no International traffic going South there's less departing flights and fewer flights coming in after 8PM to feed the International connections. I'm assuming the DFW and MIA ACs are closing by 8PM.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7859
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:44 pm

Everyone has shrunk the operating day. There are a lot less early morning and late evening departures for obvious reasons.
DL at DTW only has 1 departure before 8:00am and its to ATL. The last departures of the evening leave by 9:30pm.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5030
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:07 am

"Sources tell me airlines expect a busy July 4th holiday but are seeing an increase in cancellations for the holiday weekend and softening bookings further into July as Covid cases soar"
https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 03489?s=20

"I had noticed that this weekend was very high load-factors throughout system(AA), in any case, DFW looks like 90%+ this Thursday"
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1278 ... 88482?s=20

Next month is going to be interesting.....
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4721
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:35 pm

While not US directly, here is UK government survey about travel intentions this summer. As you can see most will stay home.

In a normal year, 35mil UK residents would take a summer holiday averaging 9.8 days away including some 3.4mil that would visit the U.S.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eb2i71rX0AM ... ame=medium
mercure f-wtcc
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5030
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:29 pm

Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
User avatar
SumChristianus
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:58 pm

Midwestindy wrote:


How could it be so close to normal with capacity reduced so much as it has been over last year?

Is this just a proxy data for actual passenger numbers because even the average for the period seems impossible to reach based on current passenger screening trends, even admitting of course that that itself is also a proxy for actual demand...

Thanks for sharing all these graphs and other good info!
UA DL LH NW AA WN - Hope I don't have to leave WY for a while
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5030
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


How could it be so close to normal with capacity reduced so much as it has been over last year?

Is this just a proxy data for actual passenger numbers because even the average for the period seems impossible to reach based on current passenger screening trends, even admitting of course that that itself is also a proxy for actual demand...

Thanks for sharing all these graphs and other good info!


Good question, for 4th of July weekend usually airlines run a reduced schedule (no business traffic)

Also keep in mind screenings include int'l travel, and it's hard to tell to what degree cancellations are included in this data.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos