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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:11 am

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected.

I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes filled with close-in booking by using highly discounted fares. Since we are a few days out from July 4th, one would've otherwise expected a lot of last minute holiday bookings which clearly hasn't happened.

Domestic capacity almost doubled in July from June with a huge dump into Florida and LAS. There is going to be a lot of empty planes going into Florida if booking doesn't dramatically increase. Also, there is the question of what kind of revenue these low fares are generating. Right now, seeing $24 fares on EWR-MCO for most of the week of July 6th to 11th.

What do you mean clearly it hasn’t happened? It’s not 1jul yet. So what data are your referencing.


sorry, midwestindy posted a chart earlier that looks to be deleted. It showed the booking basically about the same for the past 3 weeks. I'm saying that given all the increased capacity and heavy discounting, I would've expected booking trend to have significantly improve had the news this past week not come out.

If ULCCs are getting most of their bookings 1 or 2 weeks out and their capacity is going up 50 to 100% in July (For example, NK up to 70+% in early July from 10% in early June), then they should be seeing a lot of increased bookings now.


Lol, yeah apparently I need to post the links every time even though they are all cited at the beginning of thread:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources

I don't disagree that we would be seeing higher bookings without the increases in cases. However with that in mind, many people thought we would see massive (or at least sizable) dropoffs in overall bookings as a result, which hasn't happened yet.

The close in bookings is less of an issue for July, as a significant portion of July is already booked in. There were was a major spike in July bookings in early March, with no-change fees many people moved earlier vacations to later in the summer, and in addition Summer Bookings didn't drop off to nearly the level of near in bookings during the worst of the April months.

Plus remember that while G4, NK, and F9 may be running large(relatively) schedules, they overall make up a small portion of overall US capacity.
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tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:17 am

Hard for me to believe that most of the bookings are done for July when the close in fares are as low as what I am seeing. This would seem to contradict a lot of what we have been hearing up until now. Remember, capacity is doubling and bookings are flat for Weeks now.

Jonnyc just posted a chart where searches for Dallas and Philadelphia are both showing drops very recently.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:42 am

tphuang wrote:
Hard for me to believe that most of the bookings are done for July when the close in fares are as low as what I am seeing. This would seem to contradict a lot of what we have been hearing up until now. Remember, capacity is doubling and bookings are flat for Weeks now.

Jonnyc just posted a chart where searches for Dallas and Philadelphia are both showing drops very recently.


*From upthread*
Midwestindy wrote:
Something to keep in mind for July numbers is there was already sizable amount of booked in pax for summer, up until around March 14. For about a week or two in March, airlines released tons of low fares & were able to massively increase bookings for a short period of time.

This is Gary Kelly talking about it in very early May: "I think May will be better than April was, and I don't think June will be a good month, but hopefully it will be a bit better than May. And then we're looking forward to July and August, and we'll just have to see. There are bookings in place."

*US Domestic Numbers*
Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
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tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:44 pm

This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule)
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in June to absorb the additional demand. Are we going to see the opposite in July like what AS is doing here?

Also, interesting chart from JonNYC with regard to demand out of DFW/PHL. Now, I continue to hold the belief that certain cities in northeast will see somewhat elevated demand from re-opening. But at least out of these 2 AA hubs, the demand is going back down to early May levels. Dallas looks to be seeing a bigger drop than Philly.
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1277 ... 44/photo/1
 
Sooner787
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule)
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in June to absorb the additional demand. Are we going to see the opposite in July like what AS is doing here?

Also, interesting chart from JonNYC with regard to demand out of DFW/PHL. Now, I continue to hold the belief that certain cities in northeast will see somewhat elevated demand from re-opening. But at least out of these 2 AA hubs, the demand is going back down to early May levels. Dallas looks to be seeing a bigger drop than Philly.
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1277 ... 44/photo/1


Well, AA says they're bringing 140 single aisle jets back online in July. Don't know how full they'll be.

Been watching DFW past few days and air traffic has increased , but the pax flights seem to trail off after 7pm or so,
after which it's the UPS / Fedex nightly airshow
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule)
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in June to absorb the additional demand. Are we going to see the opposite in July like what AS is doing here?

Also, interesting chart from JonNYC with regard to demand out of DFW/PHL. Now, I continue to hold the belief that certain cities in northeast will see somewhat elevated demand from re-opening. But at least out of these 2 AA hubs, the demand is going back down to early May levels. Dallas looks to be seeing a bigger drop than Philly.
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1277 ... 44/photo/1


Well, AA says they're bringing 140 single aisle jets back online in July. Don't know how full they'll be.

Been watching DFW past few days and air traffic has increased , but the pax flights seem to trail off after 7pm or so,
after which it's the UPS / Fedex nightly airshow
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:52 pm

Hubs that don't have domestic transcons other than arriving last flights of the night are ghost towns after 7 or 8PM. The last departing flight out of MIA is 8:30PM to LAX (unless that has recently changed). With reduced banks and no International traffic going South there's less departing flights and fewer flights coming in after 8PM to feed the International connections. I'm assuming the DFW and MIA ACs are closing by 8PM.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:44 pm

Everyone has shrunk the operating day. There are a lot less early morning and late evening departures for obvious reasons.
DL at DTW only has 1 departure before 8:00am and its to ATL. The last departures of the evening leave by 9:30pm.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:07 am

"Sources tell me airlines expect a busy July 4th holiday but are seeing an increase in cancellations for the holiday weekend and softening bookings further into July as Covid cases soar"
https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 03489?s=20

"I had noticed that this weekend was very high load-factors throughout system(AA), in any case, DFW looks like 90%+ this Thursday"
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1278 ... 88482?s=20

Next month is going to be interesting.....
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:35 pm

While not US directly, here is UK government survey about travel intentions this summer. As you can see most will stay home.

In a normal year, 35mil UK residents would take a summer holiday averaging 9.8 days away including some 3.4mil that would visit the U.S.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eb2i71rX0AM ... ame=medium
mercure f-wtcc
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:29 pm

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SumChristianus
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:58 pm

Midwestindy wrote:


How could it be so close to normal with capacity reduced so much as it has been over last year?

Is this just a proxy data for actual passenger numbers because even the average for the period seems impossible to reach based on current passenger screening trends, even admitting of course that that itself is also a proxy for actual demand...

Thanks for sharing all these graphs and other good info!
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


How could it be so close to normal with capacity reduced so much as it has been over last year?

Is this just a proxy data for actual passenger numbers because even the average for the period seems impossible to reach based on current passenger screening trends, even admitting of course that that itself is also a proxy for actual demand...

Thanks for sharing all these graphs and other good info!


Good question, for 4th of July weekend usually airlines run a reduced schedule (no business traffic)

Also keep in mind screenings include int'l travel, and it's hard to tell to what degree cancellations are included in this data.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:10 pm

Denver-based Frontier Airlines also told employees this week that bookings had taken a hit, and that it is evaluating what schedule reductions it would need to make as a result.

UA's booking declines impacting NYC the most it appears. "The drop-off has been most acute at United’s Newark hub, where near-term net bookings were about 16% of a year earlier’s levels as of July 1, according to the presentation. Just weeks earlier, net bookings there had climbed to about a third of last year’s levels"
https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-u ... SFWN2EE0FF
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tphuang
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:12 pm

This is interesting
https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/07/read ... -frontier/

Looks like F9 is making some pretty last minute late July and August cuts to its schedule as demand is dropping in sunbelt regions. I've been seeing that NK also having trouble with its 70% schedule.

Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is interesting
https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/07/read ... -frontier/

Looks like F9 is making some pretty last minute late July and August cuts to its schedule as demand is dropping in sunbelt regions. I've been seeing that NK also having trouble with its 70% schedule.

Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.


Florida is going back to full lockdown. No bars, no beach, no sit down restaurants, no clubs, no shopping. Many hotels will probably close up. I guarantee within 2-3 weeks airlines are going to be back to 25%-30% load factors. Sadly this means mass airline firings come 10/1 unless the situation turns around by summer end, which I don't see given this is a political football. To make matter worse there doesn't seem to be much appetite to extend the $600 federal portion of unemployment. The real crash hasn't even begun.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.


Very true, and shockingly low fares. Speaking of United... expect a major slashing of its August Florida schedule, especially from EWR, which was only substantially added just last week. Of course, this schedule was built on assumptions based on May/June momentum and catching up to competitors adding capacity at EWR, but the bottom seems to be dropping out for leisure bookings to the Southeast.

There's no reason to fly 5x/day to RSW full of $7 base fares... especially if they aren't even selling at that price.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:56 pm

United warns of WARN notices to come.

United told employees on Monday to prepare to receive notifications of potential furloughs under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, known as the WARN Act, as soon as this week, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2481US
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:55 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is interesting
https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/07/read ... -frontier/

Looks like F9 is making some pretty last minute late July and August cuts to its schedule as demand is dropping in sunbelt regions. I've been seeing that NK also having trouble with its 70% schedule.

Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.


Florida is going back to full lockdown. No bars, no beach, no sit down restaurants, no clubs, no shopping. Many hotels will probably close up. I guarantee within 2-3 weeks airlines are going to be back to 25%-30% load factors. Sadly this means mass airline firings come 10/1 unless the situation turns around by summer end, which I don't see given this is a political football. To make matter worse there doesn't seem to be much appetite to extend the $600 federal portion of unemployment. The real crash hasn't even begun.


Florida is more than MIA/FLL, outside of South Florida I haven't seen any major restrictions be put in place.

Also airline layoffs were going to happen regardless, AA has said from the jump that no layoffs was a hope/dream.

tphuang wrote:
Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.


Legacy fares & LCC fares are better indications of fares, I'd say looking at ULCC fares is not very productive, the base fare is only a small portion of the actual revenue generated by each passenger
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:10 pm

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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is interesting
https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/07/read ... -frontier/

Looks like F9 is making some pretty last minute late July and August cuts to its schedule as demand is dropping in sunbelt regions. I've been seeing that NK also having trouble with its 70% schedule.

Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.


Florida is going back to full lockdown. No bars, no beach, no sit down restaurants, no clubs, no shopping. Many hotels will probably close up. I guarantee within 2-3 weeks airlines are going to be back to 25%-30% load factors. Sadly this means mass airline firings come 10/1 unless the situation turns around by summer end, which I don't see given this is a political football. To make matter worse there doesn't seem to be much appetite to extend the $600 federal portion of unemployment. The real crash hasn't even begun.


Florida is more than MIA/FLL, outside of South Florida I haven't seen any major restrictions be put in place.

Also airline layoffs were going to happen regardless, AA has said from the jump that no layoffs was a hope/dream.

tphuang wrote:
Anecdotally look at flights from EWR/LGA/PHL/ORD to Florida next week, there are sub $20 fares everywhere from NK/F9. I don't see how any of that is sustainable, especially for high CPE airports like EWR/LGA.


Legacy fares & LCC fares are better indications of fares, I'd say looking at ULCC fares is not very productive, the base fare is only a small portion of the actual revenue generated by each passenger


UA and AA pricing on those routes are very close to NK pricing. I have never seen NK pricing EWR to Florida anywhere close to that level a week or 3 days out. This just shows supply way outstrips demand at the moment on EWR/PHL/ORD-Florida.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:35 pm

The Governor of Florida is being put under pressure to follow Miami Dade/Broward and I think he's going to be forced to impose the lockdown statewide. I give it to the end of this week. Also, SE along with Disney are the biggest destinations in summer time and take away traffic to FLL, MIA, and MCO and what's left ain't much.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:08 pm

Image

https://ir.united.com/static-files/2215 ... 3658af7cd1

Miamiairport wrote:
The Governor of Florida is being put under pressure to follow Miami Dade/Broward and I think he's going to be forced to impose the lockdown statewide. I give it to the end of this week. Also, SE along with Disney are the biggest destinations in summer time and take away traffic to FLL, MIA, and MCO and what's left ain't much.


Who is going to force him?
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baje427
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:45 am

No surprise bookings are trending downwards. Until there is some management of the virus bookings will continue to freefall. Should this persist I assume we will be seeing the end of some iconic airlines.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:02 pm

Time to shut down Florida. The behavior is a disgrace to America
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:23 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The Governor of Florida is being put under pressure to follow Miami Dade/Broward and I think he's going to be forced to impose the lockdown statewide. I give it to the end of this week. Also, SE along with Disney are the biggest destinations in summer time and take away traffic to FLL, MIA, and MCO and what's left ain't much.


It won't have much effect on bookings given that most of the spots with air demand are seeing unacceptable COVID-19 data, but I think something close to the first reopening phase - where the rules are much tighter in the big cities - is significantly more likely. Still, shutdowns in just a handful of populous counties (say Broward, Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Pinellas and Orange) would decimate demand.
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:41 pm

Interestingly bookings within 2 weeks of travel appear to be the least impacted

Image

https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
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32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:52 pm

Why are so many people even going to Florida. I thought it was a winter place
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:55 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The Governor of Florida is being put under pressure to follow Miami Dade/Broward and I think he's going to be forced to impose the lockdown statewide. I give it to the end of this week. Also, SE along with Disney are the biggest destinations in summer time and take away traffic to FLL, MIA, and MCO and what's left ain't much.


Pressure by who? Random users on a.net that want to hide in their basements until 2021?
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:56 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Why are so many people even going to Florida. I thought it was a winter place


Because it's dirt cheap in summer even though it's miserable weather. For example Miami Beach in winter is definitely more European, deep South Americans (with money), more upscale NE and even Asia. Summer in Miami Beach is definitely the Motel 6 crowd.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Interestingly bookings within 2 weeks of travel appear to be the least impacted

Image

https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/

probably because of all the deep discounting ULCCs/legacies are doing on the close-in travel. But you know that does bring some optimism for booking when this surge dies down a little bit.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Why are so many people even going to Florida. I thought it was a winter place


Because it's dirt cheap in summer even though it's miserable weather. For example Miami Beach in winter is definitely more European, deep South Americans (with money), more upscale NE and even Asia. Summer in Miami Beach is definitely the Motel 6 crowd.

People are going to Florida for a combination of pure leisure - e.g., beach but there is a huge amount of VFR - visiting family, friends, relatives. Florida has a huge transient population of people who have moved to Florida from all over the country, and not just the retiree crowd. Thus the low fares have stimulated to demand to get people to travel to visit family and friends, and sure yes go to the beach, or just hang out at their house and use the pool.

Also, its people traveling out of Florida. A lot of people, particularly retirees travel out of Florida to places in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and Mountain destinations to escape the summer heat/humidity or visit family.

Also, since no one is traveling internationally, people were going to / from Florida instead of other places.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:00 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Interestingly bookings within 2 weeks of travel appear to be the least impacted

Image

https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/

probably because of all the deep discounting ULCCs/legacies are doing on the close-in travel. But you know that does bring some optimism for booking when this surge dies down a little bit.


I think I agree with you there

The fact that close-in bookings are still that high could, at least in part, show that consumer confidence may not have decreased significantly. It could simply be that leisure travel(like every other year) falls off after early August until fall.

If consumer confidence had substantially decreased since June, close-in bookings should be way down, instead we are seeing a larger decrease in bookings for August onward.

There could be some evidence of this hypothesis in the March/April data, when consumer confidence fell off a cliff. Bookings made for 91+ days out remained "relatively" strong, while close-in bookings obviously went to zero.

32andBelow wrote:
Why are so many people even going to Florida. I thought it was a winter place


Florida is the beach destination for the US, if you are in the eastern half of the US and flying to a beach, chances are you are going to Florida.

People don't want to vacation in cities right now, for obvious reasons, so outdoors destinations have been leading the recovery.

Florida is obviously usually weaker in the summer, since the weather is worse & later in the summer hurricane chances go up, but this year those variables are less relevant given the lack of options.
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:09 am

Midwestindy wrote:
If consumer confidence had substantially decreased since June, close-in bookings should be way down, instead we are seeing a larger decrease in bookings for August onward.


The Arizona spike in cases started being reported on and picked up in the data around June 15. Can’t speak for the other places, but as it has gotten worse, I’ve noticed car traffic around my place in Phoenix is much less than late May/early June.

I think it’s a little too early to glean too much from this chart. It looks good (close in at least), but it’ll be interesting to follow it over the next few weeks, along with the TSA screening numbers.
 
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:14 am

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
If consumer confidence had substantially decreased since June, close-in bookings should be way down, instead we are seeing a larger decrease in bookings for August onward.


The Arizona spike in cases started being reported on and picked up in the data around June 15. Can’t speak for the other places, but as it has gotten worse, I’ve noticed car traffic around my place in Phoenix is much less than late May/early June.

I think it’s a little too early to glean too much from this chart. It looks good (close in at least), but it’ll be interesting to follow it over the next few weeks, along with the TSA screening numbers.


Considering the data I posted goes up through July 8, that’s almost a months worth of data so I'd say it probably gives a preliminary look at how things are trending.

I have noticed the increase in cases is starting to get less news coverage as of the past week, and some of the "hot spot" counties in the south & west are starting to see new cases level off, although that could just be a result of the July 4th holiday (less testing).

But obviously things can change very rapidly, we literally have no idea what the next few months will bring.
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chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:29 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Considering the data I posted goes up through July 8, that’s almost a months worth of data so I'd say it probably gives a preliminary look at how things are trending.

I have noticed the increase in cases is starting to get less news coverage as of the past week, and some of the "hot spot" counties in the south & west are starting to see new cases level off, although that could just be a result of the July 4th holiday (less testing).


It’s hard to tell on that chart that it goes much past July 4/5. Either way, it’s interesting to see that plotted out. I know if I fly anywhere, it’ll be a very close in decision. Probably <72 hours.

Not sure where you live, but the increase in cases here in Arizona most certainly isn’t getting less coverage. In fact, I’d say it’s steadily increased over the last few weeks. That being said, you’re correct—there are rumblings we’re starting to see a peak (or level off) emerge here in Arizona. That’s based on one or two days worth of data, so it’s way too early to see anything.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:03 pm

chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Considering the data I posted goes up through July 8, that’s almost a months worth of data so I'd say it probably gives a preliminary look at how things are trending.

I have noticed the increase in cases is starting to get less news coverage as of the past week, and some of the "hot spot" counties in the south & west are starting to see new cases level off, although that could just be a result of the July 4th holiday (less testing).


It’s hard to tell on that chart that it goes much past July 4/5. Either way, it’s interesting to see that plotted out. I know if I fly anywhere, it’ll be a very close in decision. Probably <72 hours.

Not sure where you live, but the increase in cases here in Arizona most certainly isn’t getting less coverage. In fact, I’d say it’s steadily increased over the last few weeks. That being said, you’re correct—there are rumblings we’re starting to see a peak (or level off) emerge here in Arizona. That’s based on one or two days worth of data, so it’s way too early to see anything.


I'm in Indianapolis currently, but I spent a week or so in Colorado a week ago. In Indianapolis there isn't much for the news to report yet, cases have been below 100 nearly every day since mid-late May, hospitalizations have usually been well under 10/day since June. Similar story in Colorado, but again anything can happen to reverse the trend.

I don't have the data to back it up yet, but midwest bookings appear to be mostly shielded from the increase in cases, similar to how G4 was able to capture "so many" passengers in May from these midwest states even while most of the country was still under lockdown.
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FlyingElvii
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:38 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Considering the data I posted goes up through July 8, that’s almost a months worth of data so I'd say it probably gives a preliminary look at how things are trending.

I have noticed the increase in cases is starting to get less news coverage as of the past week, and some of the "hot spot" counties in the south & west are starting to see new cases level off, although that could just be a result of the July 4th holiday (less testing).


It’s hard to tell on that chart that it goes much past July 4/5. Either way, it’s interesting to see that plotted out. I know if I fly anywhere, it’ll be a very close in decision. Probably <72 hours.

Not sure where you live, but the increase in cases here in Arizona most certainly isn’t getting less coverage. In fact, I’d say it’s steadily increased over the last few weeks. That being said, you’re correct—there are rumblings we’re starting to see a peak (or level off) emerge here in Arizona. That’s based on one or two days worth of data, so it’s way too early to see anything.


I'm in Indianapolis currently, but I spent a week or so in Colorado a week ago. In Indianapolis there isn't much for the news to report yet, cases have been below 100 nearly every day since mid-late May, hospitalizations have usually been well under 10/day since June. Similar story in Colorado, but again anything can happen to reverse the trend.

I don't have the data to back it up yet, but midwest bookings appear to be mostly shielded from the increase in cases, similar to how G4 was able to capture "so many" passengers in May from these midwest states even while most of the country was still under lockdown.

At the beginning of this, I said that GA and Biz aviation was going to take off because of all of this, and I have seen nothing but reinforcement for that this summer.
What Biz travel that is moving is travelling by GA and Biz Aviation (Not always jets) whenever possible, on top of the usual leisure private traffic. You can really see this reflected on Flightaware during weekdays.
With no large conferences, many of those that normally travel for biz have begun to, but are using cars, or GA for longer trips.

Check out a major FBO on a weekday. (Signature, Millionaire, etc) there are people travelling, but those that can are avoiding cattle car travel at all cost. Even the smaller FBO's at the regional airports are seeing increased traffic, and more small charters. With the dramatic and unavoidable change in pilot employment levels coming, a lot of pilots will be happy to fly Cirrus Charters for rent money.

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