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Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:38 pm

Nothing will kill air traffic like high unemployment. I guess some people on this board weren't out in the workforce in 2008-2009. People forget the impact of unemployment has been blunted and the unemployment has weighed more on lower wage service workers. For now. In Florida there's tons of $12-$15 an hour service jobs. Those people fired have been getting $875 a week, a pay raise to do nothing. What's going to happen if they revert back to the state unemployment insurance of only $275 a week. BTW I'd bet money lots of those Y seats were filled with people with new found money and lots of time on their hands. Yes they should be socking money away but in the US?

Eventually this will start to hit the professional class. As service revenues dry up professional services are far less engaged. Cap Ex plummets. Far less consultants, techies, contract workers to fill the skies and spend money in the economy.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:32 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
chrisair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I have a feeling people are going to heavily overanalyze September capacity cuts and September TSA screenings. No one should be expecting #'s to increase or even be flat from peak summer travel to one of the slowest leisure months of the year.


People have been heavily analyzing every tick up or down on the TSA numbers since April. Remember the "OH WE'RE ON PACE FOR 1M PEOPLE IN A WEEK" or the "WE'RE SMASHING NUMBERS! WOOHOO! 25% GROWTH EVERY WEEK. GO BABY GO" posts?

Midwestindy wrote:
Why do all your posts revolve around unemployment?


Perhaps they see something with their company/industry that you don't? People are afraid of losing their jobs.


Nothing will kill air traffic like high unemployment. I guess some people on this board weren't out in the workforce in 2008-2009. People forget the impact of unemployment has been blunted and the unemployment has weighed more on lower wage service workers. For now. In Florida there's tons of $12-$15 an hour service jobs. Those people fired have been getting $875 a week, a pay raise to do nothing. What's going to happen if they revert back to the state unemployment insurance of only $275 a week. BTW I'd bet money lots of those Y seats were filled with people with new found money and lots of time on their hands. Yes they should be socking money away but in the US?

Eventually this will start to hit the professional class. As service revenues dry up professional services are far less engaged. Cap Ex plummets. Far less consultants, techies, contract workers to fill the skies and spend money.


I work for one of the consulting firms you mentioned, and we are hiring right now.

You have referenced this unemployment check thing over and over, and there is no evidence that it has any significant impact on air travel demand. Air travel is not done by low wage workers, the avg income for US leisure pax is $94,579, and only 6% of leisure passengers are employed in retail & hospitality (the sectors that have far and away the highest unemployment)

https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/us- ... 9-outlook/

Will unemployment impact the higher wage workers? Maybe eventually, but in terms of importance, travel restrictions & consumer confidence are 1000x more important right now.
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Dieuwer
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:36 pm

Enjoy those $875 a week handouts, because when the Real Crisis hits in 10 years from now that $875 will hyperinflate away in one day.
 
Alias1024
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:04 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
I suppose the one bit of good news for the airlines is that the passenger numbers aren't going backwards. With the spike in cases all over the country and new rounds of quarantine orders it would have been easy to see demand decrease but it has stayed flat. We aren't on a trajectory toward the April lows. I also suspect the summer travel season will be stretched into the fall as work from home and online schooling makes it easier to get away for a little while as long as you have a laptop and internet connection.


Yes but airlines are cutting flights again for August and September and seeing cancellations rise so I suspect these numbers are going to start to fall soon. As the economy implodes fewer people are going to travel even if COVID 19 lets up. And I see COVID 19 being problematic for awhile to come.


I agree the virus is going to be problematic for a while to come in the US since we have no control over its spread right now. That’s why I think it’s encouraging that we’re not seeing a major regression in passenger numbers.

As to the airline schedule cuts, those cuts are mostly on planned increases. Airlines are scaling back their increases from July to August but are not flying smaller schedules next month than they are this month. Except maybe NK, I’m not sure about them. They were extremely aggressive in bringing capacity back so they might actually be smaller in August.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
Miamiairport
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Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
chrisair wrote:

People have been heavily analyzing every tick up or down on the TSA numbers since April. Remember the "OH WE'RE ON PACE FOR 1M PEOPLE IN A WEEK" or the "WE'RE SMASHING NUMBERS! WOOHOO! 25% GROWTH EVERY WEEK. GO BABY GO" posts?



Perhaps they see something with their company/industry that you don't? People are afraid of losing their jobs.


Nothing will kill air traffic like high unemployment. I guess some people on this board weren't out in the workforce in 2008-2009. People forget the impact of unemployment has been blunted and the unemployment has weighed more on lower wage service workers. For now. In Florida there's tons of $12-$15 an hour service jobs. Those people fired have been getting $875 a week, a pay raise to do nothing. What's going to happen if they revert back to the state unemployment insurance of only $275 a week. BTW I'd bet money lots of those Y seats were filled with people with new found money and lots of time on their hands. Yes they should be socking money away but in the US?

Eventually this will start to hit the professional class. As service revenues dry up professional services are far less engaged. Cap Ex plummets. Far less consultants, techies, contract workers to fill the skies and spend money.


I work for one of the consulting firms you mentioned, and we are hiring right now.

You have referenced this unemployment check thing over and over, and there is no evidence that it has any significant impact on air travel demand. Air travel is not done by low wage workers, the avg income for US leisure pax is $94,579, and only 6% of leisure passengers are employed in retail & hospitality (the sectors that have far and away the highest unemployment)

https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/us- ... 9-outlook/

Will unemployment impact the higher wage workers? Maybe eventually, but in terms of importance, travel restrictions & consumer confidence are 1000x more important right now.



You don;t think lower wage workers fly? Really, I can't begin to state the sheer stupidity of that statement. You must have not traveled in the previous 20 years. Yes some firms are hiring but the vast majority are either laying off or have hiring freezes. Again I have no idea what world you are living in.

Also, you must be young and have no memory of 2008/2009 when air travel came took a nose dive. Same before in previous recessions. Fewer leisure travelers and businesses cut back on discretionary travel. And that was with far fewer unemployed and no virus to boot, not to mention no video technologies. Conferences and trade shows are announcing they will be all virtual in 2021, including shows that bring in 100K plus attendees.

Even if air travel remains in the 20%-25% range of 2019 for more than a few months the airline industry will need to do massive restructuring. It's a highly capital intensive industry and airlines can't easily adjust to 25% of the their former business, particularly the legacies that are missing out on lucrative paid premium travel.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I work for one of the consulting firms you mentioned, and we are hiring right now.

You have referenced this unemployment check thing over and over, and there is no evidence that it has any significant impact on air travel demand. Air travel is not done by low wage workers, the avg income for US leisure pax is $94,579, and only 6% of leisure passengers are employed in retail & hospitality (the sectors that have far and away the highest unemployment)

https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/us- ... 9-outlook/

Will unemployment impact the higher wage workers? Maybe eventually, but in terms of importance, travel restrictions & consumer confidence are 1000x more important right now.



You don;t think lower wage workers fly? Really, I can't begin to state the sheer stupidity of that statement. You must have not traveled in the previous 20 years. Yes some firms are hiring but the vast majority are either laying off or have hiring freezes. Again I have no idea what world you are living in.

Also, you must be young and have no memory of 2008/2009 when air travel came took a nose dive. Same before in previous recessions. Fewer leisure travelers and businesses cut back on discretionary travel. And that was with far fewer unemployed and no virus to boot, not to mention no video technologies. Conferences and trade shows are announcing they will be all virtual in 2021, including shows that bring in 100K plus attendees.

Even if air travel remains in the 20%-25% range of 2019 for more than a few months the airline industry will need to do massive restructuring. It's a highly capital intensive industry and airlines can't easily adjust to 25% of the their former business, particularly the legacies that are missing out on lucrative paid premium travel.


You are arguing two different things:

The first shouldn't be a hard concept to wrap your mind around, only 15% of leisure travelers in the US make under $50k. Low income workers make up a very small sliver of leisure passengers (and that's if you consider $50k low income)
Image


The second thing I have no idea what you are arguing, everyone knows there is unemployment, everyone knows the airline industry is in despair right now.

The main reason why it is in shambles is because people don't feel comfortable flying and there are travel restrictions, it's not because X number of people are unemployed which is secondary to the main issue at hand. Listen to any airline CEO and they will tell you exactly that


Leisure traffic will be back next year to around 80-90% of pre covid but that is low yield traffic and will do great things for the NKs etc.

High yield business traffic will never come back to the same level. Pre Covid a lot of mid level people flew around for literally nothing that could have been done more productive over the phone/video for 2h instead of at least 8h including travel.

That will be gone for ever. Companies will see the massive cost reduction that video calls bring and only high priority meetings will be in person and that is unfortunately for the airline industry less than 50% of previous business traffic.
 
75driver
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:19 pm

It’s laughable to say unemployment is some secondary non critical factor in airline travel. Who produced that pie chart anyway? Even if it’s somewhat accurate you could also say 2/3rd’s of all leisure travelers make 75K or less. Unemployment at the levels we are seeing and about to see will impact air travel.
 
boilerla
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:25 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Regarding leisure/VFR, I'm starting to get the sense there are really two camps of people.
There are those that are comfortable traveling in the pandemic-era, and those that will absolutely not travel by air until we get the "all-clear" or a "vaccine" solves the whole thing.
I think you can start to get some momentum and repeat travel out of the first group. The second group has already deemed air travel is extremely unsafe and risky (yet they will go to crowded indoor restaurants and big box stores) It it what it is.

Some of the people currently flying have no choice and won’t make a habit of it—funerals, family emergency, etc. Many of those are last minute bookings. I had to make such a booking in July for $350 and my parents just made one for next week. The problem is that even with close in bookings they paid $280 round trip to fly a mid-con. Last year in August that wouldn’t even get me from LA to SFO let alone last minute.

The VFR traffic that does remain and feel confident in flying are going to be bargain hunting—taking a trip because they feel it’s safe and found a $30 flight to Florida.

Airlines are flying those fares now because of cheap money subsidizing them. Come October I can see a lot of fares rising or routes disappearing as capacity is slashed along with payrolls at airlines. They’ll lose a lot of the VFR traffic come September anyway and especially once fares return to something representing profitability.
 
Galore
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:29 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A lot of the "cuts" for August and September, aren't actually are reduction month over month, from July, but instead or a rollback of planned capacity increases.

Regarding leisure/VFR, I'm starting to get the sense there are really two camps of people.
There are those that are comfortable traveling in the pandemic-era, and those that will absolutely not travel by air until we get the "all-clear" or a "vaccine" solves the whole thing.
I think you can start to get some momentum and repeat travel out of the first group. The second group has already deemed air travel is extremely unsafe and risky (yet they will go to crowded indoor restaurants and big box stores) It it what it is.


There’s also people like me - the reasons why I don’t fly this year are:

1. There is no good reason to fly. Vacation? Leisure? For what? Everything I planned to travel for this year was cancelled due to COVID.
2. What’s open (beaches, national parks) isn’t attractive enough to justify the absolute misery that is economically justifiable air travel. The airlines optimized their product to be only bearable if I absolute have to go from A to B. Maybe if their product were better, I would go to a nice beach for leisure, even while COVID measures at the destination are off putting. But if I have to get there in a crappy sardine can I just won’t fly. Not worth it. And no, I also won’t pay 5x more for first class. Too bad, they are all set up for horrific packed “economy” or ridiculously expensive first. Before COVID, I just grinned and beared it because going from A to B was important. Now forget that. Treat me better (minimum 20” seat width, 32” pitch, 50% higher fare than your low, low sardine fare) and I’ll fly again.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:34 pm

So close to 800. Maybe today.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:35 pm

Galore wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A lot of the "cuts" for August and September, aren't actually are reduction month over month, from July, but instead or a rollback of planned capacity increases.

Regarding leisure/VFR, I'm starting to get the sense there are really two camps of people.
There are those that are comfortable traveling in the pandemic-era, and those that will absolutely not travel by air until we get the "all-clear" or a "vaccine" solves the whole thing.
I think you can start to get some momentum and repeat travel out of the first group. The second group has already deemed air travel is extremely unsafe and risky (yet they will go to crowded indoor restaurants and big box stores) It it what it is.


There’s also people like me - the reasons why I don’t fly this year are:

1. There is no good reason to fly. Vacation? Leisure? For what? Everything I planned to travel for this year was cancelled due to COVID.
2. What’s open (beaches, national parks) isn’t attractive enough to justify the absolute misery that is economically justifiable air travel. The airlines optimized their product to be only bearable if I absolute have to go from A to B. Maybe if their product were better, I would go to a nice beach for leisure, even while COVID measures at the destination are off putting. But if I have to get there in a crappy sardine can I just won’t fly. Not worth it. And no, I also won’t pay 5x more for first class. Too bad, they are all set up for horrific packed “economy” or ridiculously expensive first. Before COVID, I just grinned and beared it because going from A to B was important. Now forget that. Treat me better (minimum 20” seat width, 32” pitch, 50% higher fare than your low, low sardine fare) and I’ll fly again.

This is the best time ever to fly economy. All the middles are empty.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:28 pm

Not to mention airlines are pulling back this month and September so I wouldn't expect this percentage to grow, unless there's a significant amount of close in bookings. Summer travel will start wrapping up with 3-4 weeks and business travel isn't close to returning. Anyone that thinks were are going back to near 100% 2019 levels I'd like to talk to them about some mosquito free land in Western Miami Dade country.
 
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Revelation
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:22 pm

Galore wrote:
There’s also people like me - the reasons why I don’t fly this year are:

1. There is no good reason to fly. Vacation? Leisure? For what? Everything I planned to travel for this year was cancelled due to COVID.
2. What’s open (beaches, national parks) isn’t attractive enough to justify the absolute misery that is economically justifiable air travel. The airlines optimized their product to be only bearable if I absolute have to go from A to B. Maybe if their product were better, I would go to a nice beach for leisure, even while COVID measures at the destination are off putting. But if I have to get there in a crappy sardine can I just won’t fly. Not worth it. And no, I also won’t pay 5x more for first class. Too bad, they are all set up for horrific packed “economy” or ridiculously expensive first. Before COVID, I just grinned and beared it because going from A to B was important. Now forget that. Treat me better (minimum 20” seat width, 32” pitch, 50% higher fare than your low, low sardine fare) and I’ll fly again.

My thoughts are similar. I feel whatever upside I could get from a flight is countered by all the down sides, the ones you mention plus the chance I could end up being sick or even dead or I could bring back a virus that could cause others to get sick or even dead.

MIflyer12 wrote:
And still not a day in the last seven reported that hit 30.0%. It was 26.5% for the seven days ending 8/2/20, up from 25.4% for seven days ending 7/24/20. There were just two days in July that hit 30.0% or higher - both over the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Where's the poster who said that mid-August would see 100% of 2019 levels and that DL had retired too many aircraft? Good one!

It turns out hope over reason is not a good business strategy.

~30% is a poor showing for the weeks that are usually the busiest of the travel season.

Even if we get the "all clear" signal some time this winter or next spring, a lot of things that used to require travel will now be done online.

CV19 has let the genie out of the bottle and it's not going back in.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
32andBelow
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Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:24 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Not to mention airlines are pulling back this month and September so I wouldn't expect this percentage to grow, unless there's a significant amount of close in bookings. Summer travel will start wrapping up with 3-4 weeks and business travel isn't close to returning. Anyone that thinks were are going back to near 100% 2019 levels I'd like to talk to them about some mosquito free land in Western Miami Dade country.

They’re not pulling back. They just aren’t increasing as much as they originally planned. They are still increasing over July a bit.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:25 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Not to mention airlines are pulling back this month and September so I wouldn't expect this percentage to grow, unless there's a significant amount of close in bookings. Summer travel will start wrapping up with 3-4 weeks and business travel isn't close to returning. Anyone that thinks were are going back to near 100% 2019 levels I'd like to talk to them about some mosquito free land in Western Miami Dade country.

They’re not pulling back. They just aren’t increasing as much as they originally planned. They are still increasing over July a bit.

some airlines are definitely down from July.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Not to mention airlines are pulling back this month and September so I wouldn't expect this percentage to grow, unless there's a significant amount of close in bookings. Summer travel will start wrapping up with 3-4 weeks and business travel isn't close to returning. Anyone that thinks were are going back to near 100% 2019 levels I'd like to talk to them about some mosquito free land in Western Miami Dade country.

They’re not pulling back. They just aren’t increasing as much as they originally planned. They are still increasing over July a bit.

some airlines are definitely down from July.

Which ones
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:53 pm

32andBelow wrote:
tphuang wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
They’re not pulling back. They just aren’t increasing as much as they originally planned. They are still increasing over July a bit.

some airlines are definitely down from July.

Which ones

JetBlue, Spirit and Frontier. With this weekend's cut, AA probably is too.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:54 pm

AA has pulled back. Most of their heavy routes are back to 2x or 3x a day. Sounds like May to me. Not to mention Spirit pulled back. It s a Monday and I'm at the AC in DCA. The airport is dead. The AC for awhile other than me the only other occupant was a little bird flying around.

My MIA/DCA flight (again Monday AM) was less than half full in Y. F was full mostly of airline workers/families on passes. Where some of these posters get the idea that air travel is going to break out is beyond me. Some I think are frustrated business flyers that have been sidelined from the good life and are fantasizing about it coming back tomorrow.
 
sadde
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:46 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:13 pm

Galore wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A lot of the "cuts" for August and September, aren't actually are reduction month over month, from July, but instead or a rollback of planned capacity increases.

Regarding leisure/VFR, I'm starting to get the sense there are really two camps of people.
There are those that are comfortable traveling in the pandemic-era, and those that will absolutely not travel by air until we get the "all-clear" or a "vaccine" solves the whole thing.
I think you can start to get some momentum and repeat travel out of the first group. The second group has already deemed air travel is extremely unsafe and risky (yet they will go to crowded indoor restaurants and big box stores) It it what it is.


There’s also people like me - the reasons why I don’t fly this year are:

1. There is no good reason to fly. Vacation? Leisure? For what? Everything I planned to travel for this year was cancelled due to COVID.
2. What’s open (beaches, national parks) isn’t attractive enough to justify the absolute misery that is economically justifiable air travel. The airlines optimized their product to be only bearable if I absolute have to go from A to B. Maybe if their product were better, I would go to a nice beach for leisure, even while COVID measures at the destination are off putting. But if I have to get there in a crappy sardine can I just won’t fly. Not worth it. And no, I also won’t pay 5x more for first class. Too bad, they are all set up for horrific packed “economy” or ridiculously expensive first. Before COVID, I just grinned and beared it because going from A to B was important. Now forget that. Treat me better (minimum 20” seat width, 32” pitch, 50% higher fare than your low, low sardine fare) and I’ll fly again.

Lol what? I’ve been on probably 15 commercial flights now since April. Not a single one was full. The majority I had an empty seat next to me (including on AA and UA). The only flight I didn’t have at least one empty seat in my row was on G4. The product is practically the same, only real difference is mask requirements. Losing out on some over priced pre-packaged meals is not exactly a deal breaker for most.
 
mentaisupa
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:08 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:04 pm

With Sept. loaded, it looks like schedules are slightly up from August as a % compared to last year. See: https://crankyflier.com/2020/08/03/amer ... -everyone/

Of course, there could be more cuts as we get closer to September. Still, if the schedule holds, then it still gives more room (however slight) to grow % of 2019 passengers MoM.
 
User avatar
Revelation
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:18 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
AA has pulled back. Most of their heavy routes are back to 2x or 3x a day. Sounds like May to me. Not to mention Spirit pulled back. It s a Monday and I'm at the AC in DCA. The airport is dead. The AC for awhile other than me the only other occupant was a little bird flying around.

My MIA/DCA flight (again Monday AM) was less than half full in Y. F was full mostly of airline workers/families on passes. Where some of these posters get the idea that air travel is going to break out is beyond me. Some I think are frustrated business flyers that have been sidelined from the good life and are fantasizing about it coming back tomorrow.

Some feel business travel is the good life, most seem to decide after a small number of business trips that staying home is the good life.

mentaisupa wrote:
With Sept. loaded, it looks like schedules are slightly up from August as a % compared to last year. See: https://crankyflier.com/2020/08/03/amer ... -everyone/

Of course, there could be more cuts as we get closer to September. Still, if the schedule holds, then it still gives more room (however slight) to grow % of 2019 passengers MoM.

Schedules and boarding numbers are interesting data, but for the airlines it's all about the revenues.

It's hard to drive yields up when you have empty seats.

Boarding data can be influenced a lot by employees or families using passes.

Since layoffs are now unfortunately rolling out with more to come, I suppose many are using their benefits while they still have them.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8020
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:24 am

Spirit suggests the recovery is postponed:

“It’s now clear that the demand increase we saw in June was an outlier, and the downward trend will continue,” Spirit said in a memo to employees last week. The airline now expects flight capacity to be down 35% in August and 45% in September. That represents a deterioration from July when the airline’s capacity was off 18% from the same period a year earlier.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/wi ... quote_news

The airline has now burned through more than $700 million in cash in the last five months and expects to go through another $100 million each month for the next several months, it said. “This level of cash burn is not sustainable,” Spirit said.
 
Cedar
Posts: 76
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:07 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:29 am

This is a good article with some data:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... -we-aug-2/

Cedar
 
KlimaBXsst
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Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:30 pm

Are there any reports out there that show how much of a proportion of the available traffic the “Big Six Airlines,” are capturing of the available passenger traffic right now.

Has UA or AA gained United States market share against DL for example? Seems this is kind of likely as I do not think American or United is blocking middle seats but I guess it could be more complicated than just pure numbers.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
UWPAviation
Posts: 144
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:33 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Spirit suggests the recovery is postponed:

“It’s now clear that the demand increase we saw in June was an outlier, and the downward trend will continue,” Spirit said in a memo to employees last week. The airline now expects flight capacity to be down 35% in August and 45% in September. That represents a deterioration from July when the airline’s capacity was off 18% from the same period a year earlier.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/wi ... quote_news

The airline has now burned through more than $700 million in cash in the last five months and expects to go through another $100 million each month for the next several months, it said. “This level of cash burn is not sustainable,” Spirit said.


This makes sense. Post-shutdown everyone was eager to book and travel, and cases were trending down. What happened? People did travel and they went nuts now that the lockdown was lifted. Cases then went up, especially in places like Florida, South Carolina, Arizona, Las Vegas and California, the biggest tourist spots in the US. So people stopped booking and traveling because of this. I can speak for my wife and I. We were looking at traveling in September. Once the cases started going off the charts in early July we scrapped all plans probably until spring of 2021.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4936
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:01 pm

Decent uptick the last week or two Iexpect 800k today
 
75driver
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:25 am

32andBelow wrote:
Decent uptick the last week or two Iexpect 800k today


Thinking Sunday. It’s been the higher performing day the last couple weeks. This weeks traffic was the highest 7 day revolving total since the start of this Charlie Foxtrot. Unfortunately it’s still only 25% of last years week over week volume.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:34 am

75driver wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Decent uptick the last week or two Iexpect 800k today


Thinking Sunday. It’s been the higher performing day the last couple weeks. This weeks traffic was the highest 7 day revolving total since the start of this Charlie Foxtrot. Unfortunately it’s still only 25% of last years week over week volume.

Forget about comparing it to 2019. It’s irrelevant.
 
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spinotter
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:30 am

32andBelow wrote:
75driver wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Decent uptick the last week or two Iexpect 800k today


Thinking Sunday. It’s been the higher performing day the last couple weeks. This weeks traffic was the highest 7 day revolving total since the start of this Charlie Foxtrot. Unfortunately it’s still only 25% of last years week over week volume.

Forget about comparing it to 2019. It’s irrelevant.


I disagree. Whether or not passenger numbers or RPMs ever return to pre-pandemic levels, such comparisons give us perhaps the best single number overview of what is happening.
 
75driver
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Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:33 pm

spinotter wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
75driver wrote:

Thinking Sunday. It’s been the higher performing day the last couple weeks. This weeks traffic was the highest 7 day revolving total since the start of this Charlie Foxtrot. Unfortunately it’s still only 25% of last years week over week volume.

Forget about comparing it to 2019. It’s irrelevant.


I disagree. Whether or not passenger numbers or RPMs ever return to pre-pandemic levels, such comparisons give us perhaps the best single number overview of what is happening.


Agreed. It’s one of the clearly visible metrics airlines can reference when attempting to plan for this unprecedented event. It’s also one of the metrics used to staff, plan and budget for many other ancillary businesses associated with the industry. I seriously doubt the industry stakeholders are blowing off passenger count as irrelevant. That would be tantamount to corporate malfeasance.
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:55 pm

75driver wrote:
spinotter wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Forget about comparing it to 2019. It’s irrelevant.


I disagree. Whether or not passenger numbers or RPMs ever return to pre-pandemic levels, such comparisons give us perhaps the best single number overview of what is happening.


Agreed. It’s one of the clearly visible metrics airlines can reference when attempting to plan for this unprecedented event. It’s also one of the metrics used to staff, plan and budget for many other ancillary businesses associated with the industry. I seriously doubt the industry stakeholders are blowing off passenger count as irrelevant. That would be tantamount to corporate malfeasance.

I just mean comparing it to the all time high year of aviation isn’t relevant. It washes out the increases that are happening week to week. We should compare last week to this week. Also getting back to 2010-2015 traffic count is a better medium term goal than 2019 level. Also I think domestic and international should be broken up since I get national hasn’t even really started yet but they are heavily in the 2019 numbers.
 
75driver
Posts: 87
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:56 pm

32andBelow wrote:
I just mean comparing it to the all time high year of aviation isn’t relevant. It washes out the increases that are happening week to week. We should compare last week to this week. Also getting back to 2010-2015 traffic count is a better medium term goal than 2019 level. Also I think domestic and international should be broken up since I get national hasn’t even really started yet but they are heavily in the 2019 numbers.


2019 numbers are relevant because that’s what industry was servicing, staffed and supplied for. I understand many here are involved in the industry and livelihoods depend on it. I wish you the very best in these turbulent times. I took the easy way out by accepting early retirement. I have regrets but understand the enormous challenges. I personally don’t think the travel industry will ever be the same but I’m a curmudgeon. This is a generational event and will alter much of what we once knew. I believe the sooner people realize this the better one can plan for a future. I know how difficult it is based on my own consternation while contemplating retirement and sitting pretty with over 9 years left to bid.

That being said, passenger traffic was up 5% last week compared to the week before. It’s the highest 7 day rollover count seen so far.
 
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Revelation
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:21 pm

75driver wrote:
spinotter wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Forget about comparing it to 2019. It’s irrelevant.

I disagree. Whether or not passenger numbers or RPMs ever return to pre-pandemic levels, such comparisons give us perhaps the best single number overview of what is happening.


Agreed. It’s one of the clearly visible metrics airlines can reference when attempting to plan for this unprecedented event. It’s also one of the metrics used to staff, plan and budget for many other ancillary businesses associated with the industry. I seriously doubt the industry stakeholders are blowing off passenger count as irrelevant. That would be tantamount to corporate malfeasance.

I agree for similar reasons, and will point out it would be better if we could find a metric that would compare revenue per pax or profit per pax vs 2019 but since this stuff is closely held we'll just have to make do with headcount.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
chrisair
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:53 pm

75driver wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
This is a generational event and will alter much of what we once knew. I believe the sooner people realize this the better one can plan for a future. I know how difficult it is based on my own consternation while contemplating retirement and sitting pretty with over 9 years left to bid.


I 100% agree with you. Travel will come back to some level, of course, but it likely won't be at 2019 levels for a long time. Life has changed. Just look at how we go about life now. I rarely call in to restaurants anymore; 95% of my purchases are with contactless (Apple Pay); almost everything is bought online via Instacart, Prime Now, Amazon etc. I was already an early adopter of Apple Pay, but you see more and more people using it out and about.

Maybe take up 135 flying?
 
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UPlog
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
I agree for similar reasons, and will point out it would be better if we could find a metric that would compare revenue per pax or profit per pax vs 2019 but since this stuff is closely held we'll just have to make do with headcount.


Airlines publicly release things like RASM, yield and fare data. Hardly secret.
I fly your boxes
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:36 am

Good booking week, close in bookings have recovered, mid-long term bookings still weak:
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/

Image
Image
Image
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4936
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:14 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Good booking week, close in bookings have recovered, mid-long term bookings still weak:
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/

Image
Image
Image

Im in denali right now and the town is packed with out of towners.

I imagine lots of folks trying to cram in. An august vacation after sitting on the sidelines since March waiting to see
 
ytib
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:54 am

32andBelow wrote:
Im in denali right now and the town is packed with out of towners.

I imagine lots of folks trying to cram in. An august vacation after sitting on the sidelines since March waiting to see


I asked someone I know who lives outside of Kenai how the tourism is this summer. He said it is about the same as in years past. From people I talk to quite frequently from Juneau, it is the summer of rain and no tourists. The difference between the two is Kenai are mainly instances of people flying to Anchorage them going out on their own. Juneau is majority cruise ship based tourism.
318, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 388, 707, 717, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73Q, 735, 73G, 738, 7M8, 739, 752, 753, 742, 74L, 744, 762, 763, 772, 77L, 77W, 789, 142, CN1, CR2, CR7, DC8, DH2, DH8, D8Q, D10, D95, EM2, ER3, ER4, E70, 100, J31, M11, M83, M88, M90, SF3
 
32andBelow
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:37 am

ytib wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Im in denali right now and the town is packed with out of towners.

I imagine lots of folks trying to cram in. An august vacation after sitting on the sidelines since March waiting to see


I asked someone I know who lives outside of Kenai how the tourism is this summer. He said it is about the same as in years past. From people I talk to quite frequently from Juneau, it is the summer of rain and no tourists. The difference between the two is Kenai are mainly instances of people flying to Anchorage them going out on their own. Juneau is majority cruise ship based tourism.

Yah that’s what I’m seeing. The fly up and make your own adventure crowd is still here.
 
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2nd2none
Posts: 81
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:38 pm

TSA checkpoint travel numbers from August 3 2020 to and including August 9 2020.
Still well below the 30 % mark at 27.50 % of same week in 2019.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
75driver
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:43 pm

And Sunday it was. First time over 30% of last years day over day. Great news? No. Better news? Yes.

8/9/2020 831,789
 
Cedar
Posts: 76
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:07 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:35 pm

75driver wrote:
And Sunday it was. First time over 30% of last years day over day. Great news? No. Better news? Yes.

8/9/2020 831,789


:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Cedar
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5252
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:53 pm

Good week for bookings, back up to mid-late June levels:
Image

https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources

32andBelow wrote:
ytib wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Im in denali right now and the town is packed with out of towners.

I imagine lots of folks trying to cram in. An august vacation after sitting on the sidelines since March waiting to see


I asked someone I know who lives outside of Kenai how the tourism is this summer. He said it is about the same as in years past. From people I talk to quite frequently from Juneau, it is the summer of rain and no tourists. The difference between the two is Kenai are mainly instances of people flying to Anchorage them going out on their own. Juneau is majority cruise ship based tourism.

Yah that’s what I’m seeing. The fly up and make your own adventure crowd is still here.


Flew through IND, ORD, SEA, BZN, SLC, & PHX this weekend.

PHX I was in shoulder-shoulder traffic walking in the A concourse gates. SEA was quite busy in the AS gates I was at, BZN/SLC looked just as busy as usual (SLC had an hour long wait for rental cars), IND/ORD looked less busy than usual but far from ghost towns.

Airlines have decreased the # of banks so overall the domestic banks should still be fairly busy at core hubs, but given the significant decrease in # of banks, overall pax should continue to stay down.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4936
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Good week for bookings, back up to mid-late June levels:
Image

https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... _Resources

32andBelow wrote:
ytib wrote:

I asked someone I know who lives outside of Kenai how the tourism is this summer. He said it is about the same as in years past. From people I talk to quite frequently from Juneau, it is the summer of rain and no tourists. The difference between the two is Kenai are mainly instances of people flying to Anchorage them going out on their own. Juneau is majority cruise ship based tourism.

Yah that’s what I’m seeing. The fly up and make your own adventure crowd is still here.


Flew through IND, ORD, SEA, BZN, SLC, & PHX this weekend.

PHX I was in shoulder-shoulder traffic walking in the A concourse gates. SEA was quite busy in the AS gates I was at, BZN/SLC looked just as busy as usual (SLC had an hour long wait for rental cars), IND/ORD looked less busy than usual but far from ghost towns.

Airlines have decreased the # of banks so overall the domestic banks should still be fairly busy at core hubs, but given the significant decrease in # of banks, overall pax should continue to stay down.

I think capacity will grow in front of demand. I don’t think seats are going to limit the recovery.
 
75driver
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:38 am

Over 34 years flying commercially and I had no clue ARC existed. Certainly a valuable tool especially right now. I take it they can not track direct reservations from the public? It seems travel agents have been a service in decline with the expansion of the internet. Interesting info that’s for sure.

Midwestindy wrote:

Good week for bookings, back up to mid-late June levels:

Image



chrisair wrote:

Maybe take up 135 flying?



No plans at this point but never know. If anything in GA needs to be cracked down on it’s the 91 grey birds acting like quasi 135’s. It’s now almost a daily occurrence at my field. If it’s like this in other places the airlines are definitely missing out on some traffic. Another topic entirely though.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:06 pm

75driver wrote:
Over 34 years flying commercially and I had no clue ARC existed. Certainly a valuable tool especially right now. I take it they can not track direct reservations from the public? It seems travel agents have been a service in decline with the expansion of the internet. Interesting info that’s for sure.


All the major wall street analysts have been using it to track the crisis, not sure why more people haven't caught on yet.

It aggregates bookings from Kayak, Priceline, Orbits, Concur, e.t.c, & most of the major airlines:
https://www2.arccorp.com/products-parti ... arriers/#/
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 5252
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Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:49 pm

Close-in bookings are really building in the solo/couple space, once today's numbers come in it will probably be equal to the peak in June. What's hurting overall numbers is lack of bookings outside of 30 or so days, close-in bookings are the same/higher than peak June

*large jump in 16-30 day bookings likely due to Labor day bookings beginning*
Image
Image
https://adara.com/traveler-trends-tracker/
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
chrisair
Posts: 2153
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:13 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
PHX I was in shoulder-shoulder traffic walking in the A concourse gates. SEA was quite busy in the AS gates I was at, BZN/SLC looked just as busy as usual (SLC had an hour long wait for rental cars), IND/ORD looked less busy than usual but far from ghost towns.


Interesting. I think it depends on when you hit the airport. Wife's mother flew to SLC over the weekend and said SLC was a ghost town. Flight was 1/4 full.

FWIW, SLC has always seemed to be a pain point for rental cars in my experience. I don't know what it is about that airport, but it's either an hour wait to get one, there's nobody working returns, you reserve a mid-size and end up with a land yacht or the cardboard box with 75,000 miles on it. I gave up last year and just started taking the train or Uber.

75driver wrote:
No plans at this point but never know. If anything in GA needs to be cracked down on it’s the 91 grey birds acting like quasi 135’s. It’s now almost a daily occurrence at my field. If it’s like this in other places the airlines are definitely missing out on some traffic. Another topic entirely though.


A friend of mine flies for a real 135 operator and says his company has been busier than ever with the jet card passengers and the owners. Some of these app based broker services kind of worry me.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8032
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:02 am

Surprisingly my company came back this week and gave the green light to resume essential business travel.
Basically is necessary for revenue generating activity, sales, or on site support.

In the return to travel guidance, actually very little was on air travel itself. The vast majority was around guidance around social distancing while on site, not going out to bars / restaurants and avoiding enclosed meeting spaces.

Also not using ride share and not sharing rental cars.
 
75driver
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:15 am

chrisair wrote:
A friend of mine flies for a real 135 operator and says his company has been busier than ever with the jet card passengers and the owners. Some of these app based broker services kind of worry me.


I believe it. The 135’s at my FOB are slammed. The COVId calamity has been a boon and I’m happy for them. However, after what I saw this morning I’m tempted to say something about these grey birds. It’s BS and getting out of hand. Friends and family turn into friends of friends and friends of family that turns into paying for fuel, paying for your time, paying for a couple nights remote, etc. All pawned off as harmless but straight up flying for pay without being a legit 135 operator. It’s very worrisome when I see a pilot with a 6 seater greeting 4 “friends” introducing themselves to each other while filing a flight plan I know he doesn’t fly! The hard part is I like the guy and we’ve known each other for years! It’s a conundrum for sure and definitely taking some passengers from the airlines.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Surprisingly my company came back this week and gave the green light to resume essential business travel.
Basically is necessary for revenue generating activity, sales, or on site support.

In the return to travel guidance, actually very little was on air travel itself. The vast majority was around guidance around social distancing while on site, not going out to bars / restaurants and avoiding enclosed meeting spaces.

Also not using ride share and not sharing rental cars.


My wife’s company permanently eliminated two thirds of their business travel back mid May but they dispatched the essentials a couple weeks ago. Mostly engineer/tech types with only a couple sales execs. They are only flying DL because the adjoining business class seat is empty but they made them all sign some kind of contract with a 4 page “legal” addendum. Similar conditions as your company but some further draconian stipulations because the lawyers have them scared. Kinda crazy to think sending out employees on business trips creates liability but here we are. Nuts.
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